2023 Raleigh Relays Preview (Day One)

Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
Mar 22, 2023
16 min read

Ah, yes.

Spring.

The season where birds begin chirping yet again, where frigid air turns into a calming breeze and where my allergies decide to suffocate me for three-straight months.

All of that is also a sign that outdoor track is BACK!

Of course, there is no greater signal of the NCAA's return to the 400 meter oval than the always-entertaining Raleigh Relays. The annual distance-centric meet hosted by NC State always feels like the unofficial kick-off of the outdoor track season, and for good reason. Often times, many of the nation's fastest distance marks, specifically over 10,000 meters, will come from this east coast showdown.

Because the Raleigh Relays begin on Thursday, we are only doing a "day one" preview for today. These races feature mostly men's distance events as well as the women's 10k. We'll also have a separate preview for Friday (likely a Group Chat-style article).

Let's begin...

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Men's 1500 Meter Preview

Men's 3k Steeple Preview

Men's 5k Preview

Women's 10k Preview

Men's 1500 Meters

The top heat of the men's 1500 meters looks like a very unique field.

You've got a handful of pro / unattached runners, multiple collegiates stepping down in distance and a sizable contingent of top milers from Virginia...as well as Harvard's Vivien Henz and Michigan State's John Petruno.

See? Not exactly the easiest field to dissect.

However, collegiately, it feels pretty obvious that the top runner will be a Cavalier...or at least, that's the expectation. The likes of Gary Martin, Wes Porter and Conor Murphy all had excellent indoor track seasons and momentum is very high for them right now. Not only are they fit, but they're also tactically refined (some more than others), especially Murphy who just earned an All-American honor in the mile a couple of weeks ago.

But how will this race play out? Will pro athletes like Amon Kemboi and Ryan Hill try to take this pace out hard? And what happens if this race is kept around the 3:40 to 3:42 range? Could a tactical veteran like John Petruno play a role? We also can't forget that Vivien Henz has run 3:38 for 1500 meters on the outdoor oval before coming over to the NCAA.

And then there are the long distance talents who are trying to work on their turnover. Those names are Max Murphy (Iowa), Patrick Anderson (North Carolina), Baldvin Magnusson (Eastern Michigan) and Gavin Gaynor (NC State). One of these guys is going to run a surprisingly quick time, but I don't have a convincing feeling on who that would be.

Magnusson has proven to be the most effective when dropping down to this kind of distance, but Murphy has run 3:40 for 1500 meters. The Iowa distance talent isn't super consistent, but it seems like he has been knocking on the door of a true breakout season for the last year or so -- and tomorrow's 1500 meter battle could be the first step towards that.

Ultimately, someone is going to make this race fast -- I'm just not sure who. I could see 3:38 or 3:39 winning the top heat and maybe as many as three or four men going under the 3:40 barrier. Collegiately, the safe pick is Murphy, but in terms of someone who could run away from this field, I'll be keeping an eye on Vivien Henz.

Also, watch out for a few names in the second-fastest heat as well. Guys like Tyler Wirth (Cincinnati), Yasin Sado (Virginia), Eli Hoeft (Minnesota), Robert Becker (Stony Brook) and Mael Gouyette (Iona) have all proven to be very competitive milers. And if someone gets ambitious, you could see a good portion of their race actually being faster than a handful of men in the top section.

Men's 3000 Meter Steeplechase

Unlike the men's 1500 meters, I feel like I have a pretty good grasp on who is going to be favored to emerge as the top collegiate in this field. I am, of course, talking about Minnesota's Matthew Wilkinson.

The former D3 talent from Carleton was absolutely incredible for the Golden Gophers throughout last fall. After a strong 2022 indoor track campaign, Wilkinson put together a spring season that saw him run 8:25 in the steeplechase at the outdoor national meet to place 8th overall and earn All-American honors.

Quick side note, isn't it absolutely absurd that 8:25 got you the last All-American honor???

Wild times we live in...

Not only that, but Wilkinson ran 13:35 for 5000 meters and actually won the steeplechase at the Raleigh Relays last year in a time of 8:39. And truthfully, last year's steeple field was far more top-heavy and far deeper than what Thursday's field is expected to hold.

Admittedly, Wilkinson has only raced twice since last spring (per TFRRS). One effort resulted in a 4:07 mile time in January while the other was a DNF in a 3k race in February. We shouldn't look too heavily into those results, but it does remind us that we don't really know what Wilkinson's status is coming into this meet.

Wilkinson may be the favorite, but he's not necessarily invincible, either, especially not in an event that is as volatile as the steeplechase. Well over half of this heat has run under 8:50 in the steeplechase while certain men like Tom Seitzer (Notre Dame) and Luke Labatte (North Dakota) has previously inched near the 8:40 barrier.

Seitzer is probably the guy to keep an eye on the most as far as upset picks are concerned. The Fighting Irish veteran caught fire at the tail-end of last spring, running steeple marks of 8:49 (to win the Indiana Invitational), 8:45 (to score at the ACC Outdoor Championships) and then 8:42 (to secure the final spot out of the East region to the national meet).

The South Bend, Indiana distance talent built momentum at the perfect time last spring and capitalized on his opportunities when given the chance. However, it will be interesting to see how he fares on Thursday after not contesting a steeple race since last year.

That same trend of progression and momentum could also be seen in Luke Labatte who ran a fairly significant steeplechase PR of 8:43 at the West Regional Championships last May, placing 15th overall.

Almost everyone in this field feels like they could have a breakout race. But at the very least, numerous men are going to run new personal bests and if the race plays out like we think it could, then maybe someone other than Wilkinon breaks the 8:40 barrier.

But at the same time, for whatever reason, the men's and women's steeplechase marks around the NCAA almost never get super fast until the postseason. I don't exactly know why, but it does make me want to taper expectations for Thursday just a bit.

Also, if you're a fan of the D2 steeplechase, you'll want to keep an eye on Caleb Futter (Grand Valley State) who is in the top heat as well as a slew of other key D2 distance talents who are in the next-fastest heat.

Futter has run 8:44 in the steeplechase before, but is coming off of a not-so-great showing at the NCAA Indoor Championships. Meanwhile, few teams in Division Two are on more of a hot streak than Wingate -- something that could continue depending on how Titouan Le Grix and Soheil Boufrizi perform on Thursday.

Men's 5000 Meters

Much like the men's 1500 meters, the top heat of the men's 5k has a very unique mix of names, making it difficult to know what we should expect. And yet, at the same time, it's fairly clear who the top names will be, collegiately, going into tomorrow night's race.

Harvard's Acer Iverson and Butler's Simon Bedard headline the collegiate entries for Thursday's 5k battle. They'll likely be leading a handful of still-rising NCAA runners as well as a few athletes working to further solidify themselves on the pro circuit.

Lately, all of the attention when it comes to the Harvard men has gone to Graham Blanks -- and understandably so. The Crimson distance star had a phenomenal end to his 2022 cross country season and carried that momentum to the indoor oval.

However, some people seem to forget that Acer Iverson was largely the better runner throughout most of the 2022 cross country season. And in the eyes of many, he was a legitimate All-American candidate in both the 5k and the 10k last spring.

After running 3:58 (mile), 7:47 (3k) and 13:26 (5k) this past fall, the latter time ultimately qualifying him for the NCAA Indoor Championships, it's hard to imagine any collegiate in this field being ready to race at a level higher than Iverson right now.

The only collegiate who, historically, could legitimately challenge Iverson in this 5k field is Simon Bedard, a long-time veteran and a true long distance talent.

The Butler star holds personal bests that maybe don't rival Iverson's resume, but they aren't that far off, either. With marks of 3:58 (mile), 7:51 (3k), 13:32 (5k) and 28:33 (10k), Bedard can be competitive with his Harvard counterpart on Thursday night and at least keep things interesting.

Of course, that's just speculation. Bedard hasn't toed the line for an official collegiate race since the winter of 2022. And although the French distance standout has posted a handful of respectable marks (unattached) since then, it's hard to know if he'll be fit enough to take down Iverson in this 5k field.

After those two men, well...it's kinda up in the air.

Florida State rookie David Mullarkey has shown tons of promise as of late and owns a 13:43 (5k) personal best. Even so, he's still young and inexperienced at the collegiate level.

Indiana veteran Jake Gebhardt can be extremely dangerous when he's at his best, but will his incredible DMR anchor success this past winter (and his recent 7:51 PR for 3000 meters) translate to the outdoor 5k?

Virginia's Derek Johnson may be a great name to keep an eye on. He just ran 13:39 for 5000 meters this past winter and recorded a couple of personal bests to end his 2023 indoor track campaign.

Virginia's Yasin Sado and Texas A&M's Eric Casarez have run 13:42 for 5000 meters. Wake Forest's Luke Tewalt has run 13:43 in the same event. Duke's Nick Dahl is probably capable of running in the 13:40s range given his resume.

See what I mean? Trying to accurately predict who will finish behind Acer Iverson and Simon Bedard on Thursday night seems less likely than having a perfect March Madness bracket.

When I take a look at the recent momentum of the names I mentioned above, I would say that guys like Derek Johnson, Nathan Mountain and Jake Gebhardt are all due for fairly big performances (relative to expectations). Given the personnel in this 5k field, I imagine the pace will be fairly honest and that should lead to a few new personal bests.

We should also note that in the next-fastest heat, you'll find that the Virginia duo of Gary Martin and Wes Porter are also entered. This means that they are theoretically doubling back from the 1500 meters, either to race, to pace or as a placeholder.

Women's 10,000 Meters

And here we are, ladies and gentlemen. The marquee event of Thursday night.

The men's and women's 10k battles at the Raleigh Relays are always some of the more highly anticipated races of every NCAA outdoor track season. However, the men's and women's 10k races are held on separate days, meaning that tomorrow, under the lights, it will be the ladies' turn to take over the outdoor oval.

The invitational section of the women's 10k is admittedly massive. There are 30 attached collegiate women entered in this field, all of whom hold differing levels of experience and varying skillsets...so naturally, I'm going to talk about all of them!

Below, I listed each (attached) collegiate woman in this invite 10k field. Because of the size of this list, no singular individual is going to have paragraphs upon paragraphs worth of analysis written about them. Still, I wanted to give a race of such high importance all of the attention that it deserves.

Here we go...

Kelsey Chmiel (NC State)

There's no denying that Kelsey Chmiel is the clear-cut favorite among collegiates (and even overall). The NC State veteran is a long distance juggernaut who has a 32:45 (10k) PR in this event and holds an All-American honor at this distance from the spring of 2021.

After coming off of another highly successful indoor national meet, it is really hard to see a scenario where Chmiel doesn't win this race. The analysis is just that simple.

Alexandra Hays (NC State)

People may forget, but Alexandra Hays was an All-American in the 10k during the 2022 outdoor track season for the NC State women. In fact, you could argue that this is her marquee event.

Hays is completely unafraid to put herself in the mix with the top women in the country. And although she hasn't had eligibility to compete over the last year, her return to the oval could end up in a massive statement where she improves upon her 33:15 (10k) PR.

Rachel McCardell (Northwestern)

I am personally a big fan of Rachel McCardell. She is a true low-stick who the Northwestern women have been able to lean on for the last few seasons. The long distance veteran has arguably had more success on the grass than the track, leaving us to believe that she's a perfect fit for the 10k even though she's never contested this race before.

If our suspicions are right, then McCardell could be a very dangerous wild card in this 10k field come Thursday night.

Elizabeth Mancini (La Salle)

Eleanor Mancini (La Salle)

We're not necessarily lumping the analysis for the Mancini sisters together because they're related -- it's more because their skillsets are practically identical.

This La Salle duo leans towards the 5k and the 10k distances. Elizabeth has run 15:56 for 5000 meters and Eleanor has run 15:58 in the same event. However, Eleanor is the one with the advantage over 10,000 meters, holding a PR of 33:20 in the event which she ran at this exact meet last year.

Elizabeth, meanwhile is absolutely due for a major PR over 10,000 meters and she should be able to run under 35 minutes on Thursday night. It's also reasonable to think that a sub-34 minute effort is also in the cards...right?

Gionna Quarzo (NC State)

Few women benefit more from the introduction of the outdoor track season than Gionna Quarzo. The Pennsylvania native has been excellent over 10,000 meters, thriving at this distance last spring by placing 6th at the Raleigh Relays and qualifying for the outdoor national meet.

And after running a pair of personal bests on the indoor oval, one of which was a 15:51 mark over 5000 meters, momentum is very clearly on her side. Don't be surprised is Quarzo finds herself running comfortably under 33:20 tomorrow night.

Maeve Stiles (Penn)

Despite being a freshman, Penn's Maeve Stiles has been incredibly consistent over the longer distances, an event area that almost always holds one or two "off" days for inexperienced rookies such as herself.

That, however, has not been the case so far for Stiles who ran 9:16 (3k) and 15:58 (5k) this past winter. And after finishing 60th at the NCAA XC Championships in the fall, it's clear that Stiles favors the aerobic-based events, theoretically making the 10k her ideal racing distance.

Lilly Tuck (Providence)

According to TFRRS, Lilly Tuck has only ever contested one 10k race at the collegiate level. And when she did toe the line for that event, it resulted in her winning the BIG East individual title somewhat easily in a mark of 35:17.

As far as potential goes, Tuck is a major unknown. But based on her lone 10k effort from last spring, as well as a series of other results across a handful of seasons, we have reason to believe that Tuck can be very competitive in this field on Thursday.

Brynn Brown (North Carolina)

It's taken some time, but we'll finally get to see UNC ace Brynn Brown contest the 10k. And for someone who was excellent this past fall and ran 15:43 (5k) this past winter, Brown is very clearly suited for a distance such as this.

Sure, her inexperience in the event could result in a few learning moments, but Brown is very good in time trial-type environments which is exactly what this race is expected to be.

Katie Rose Blachowicz (Notre Dame)

Admittedly, the last year hasn't been the best for Katie Rose Blachowicz. Even so, she has to be viewed as one of the more experienced women in this field. She was also a national qualifier in this event over the last two years. Her best performances throughout an outdoor track season usually come later on in the spring months, but Blachowicz will still very much be a factor on Thursday.

Jone Zabaleta-Larranaga (Eastern Kentucky)

This EKU runner has proven to be very solid, holding times of 9:21 (3k) and 16:02 (5k). But Zabaleta-Larranaga has never contested the 10k before, leaving us with truly zero expectations for the ASUN distance talent.

Makayla Perez (Western Michigan)

Last year, during her time with Michigan State, we saw Makayala Perez have one of the best races of her life, posting a mark of 33:36 (10k) to finish 7th overall at this exact meet. Perez went on to qualify for the outdoor national meet over the same distance.

Since then, Perez has had a seemingly easy transition to Western Michigan (as far as results are concerned). She's been arguably just as good as she was with the Spartans and there's not too many signs to suggest that she can't replicate her success from this meet last year.

Ava Nuttall (Miami (OH))

Truthfully, when you look at Ava Nuttall's overall resume, there aren't too many marks that stand out and really wow you. But this Miami (OH) runner did post a PR of 33:38 (10k) at the Stanford Invite last year. She'll be a key wild card to watch on Thursday.

Fatima Alanis (North Carolina)

In theory, the 10k can be Fatima Alanis' best event. She's already run 33:39 (10k) for that distance and often dominated the Division Two level in most. ofher races. Based on a recent 3k PR from the winter months, Alanis seems to be on par with the fitness that she had while she was at Queens (NC). And if that's the case, then a 10k time under 34 minutes tomorrow night seems more than reasonable.

Rachel Sutliff (Tennessee)

Sure, Rachel Sutliff may not have the same caliber marks that some of the other women in this field do, but the Tennessee talent did run two encouraging personal bests at the tail-end of the winter months. She may be able to surprise a few people.

Jenna Mulhern (Furman)

Outside of the NC State women and maybe Rachel McCardell, I don't think there is any woman in this field better suited for the 10,000 meters than Jenna Mulhern. The true freshman from Furman has gravitated towards the longer distances for the last few years (both collegiately and in high school). She was undoubtedly built for the 10k, although we'll have to see how she balances that upside with her rookie inexperience.

Sadie Sigfstead (Villanova)

This Villanova distance runner was one of the better scorers for the Wildcats in the fall of 2021. However, she didn't race in the fall of 2022 and has yet to contest a 10k on the track. She is certainly capable of running a fast time, but there isn't much data on her resume for us to analyze.

Louise Lounes (Charlotte)

This Charlotte distance talent is a much better runner than some may realize. Her 10k PR sits at 33:51, she qualified for the outdoor national meet in that event last spring and she was a top-40 finisher at the Joe Piane Invitational last fall.

Lounes has seemingly taken a step up in her fitness since last year, but we'll see just how big that step was come Thursday night.

Colbi Borland (Lipscomb)

The Lipscomb women were one of the more pleasant surprises of the 2022 cross country and a big reason for that was because Colbi Borland finished 3rd at the ASUN XC Championships and 18th at the South Regional XC Championships.

Recent 3k and 5k personal bests on the indoor oval are encouraging and everything that we've seen from Borland suggests that she'll be great over 10,000 meters. But with zero past experience in this event, it's hard to know for sure.

Daisy Liljegren (Boston U.)

One of the bigger surprises from the 2022 regional meets last spring was seeing Daisy Liljegren make it out of the East region and qualify for the NCAA Outdoor Championships over 10,000 meters.

This past fall, Liljegren built on that momentum by placing 11th at Paul Short, 6th at Panorama Farms, runner-up at the Patriot League XC Championships and 10th at the Northeast Regional XC Championships. And after earning a string of new personal bests over multiple distances this winter, Liljegren's current 10k PR of 34:04 will almost certainly fall tomorrow night.

Ella Gilson (Harvard)

It's hard to get a good read on Ella Gilson. Her times don't necessarily catch your attention in any major way, but she ran personal bests in her last three races over three different distances. I don't know what that means for tomorrow's 10k race, but it has to be good...right?

Andrea Kuhn (Ohio State)

Daniella Santos (Ohio State)

Much like Mancini sisters, these two women aren't necessarily getting lumped together because they are on the same team. It's because they hold identical 10k personal bests of 30:49 from last spring and both made massive strides on the grass this past fall.

Both Kuhn and Santos have set new personal bests almost every time that they toed the line over last few months. They were also incredibly valuable scorers on the grass during the 2022 cross country season.

On paper, they should be able to run under 34 minutes on Thursday.

The only question is...by how much?

Ava Dobson (North Carolina)

On a roster loaded with young stars with tons of high school pedigree, Ava Dobson has quietly shown flashes of potential in a handful of races over the last year or so. The North Carolina runner isn't perfect, but it's clear that she's due for a breakout race -- and that might come this Thursday.

Erin Strzelecki (Notre Dame)

Erin Strzelecki is just flat-out solid. She's run 16:00 over 5000 meters, she scored at the ACC Indoor Championships this past winter and she placed 54th at the NCAA XC Championships back in the fall.

Strzelecki isn't going to light up the national leaderboard, but she's fairly consistent and there's a good chance that she'll put together a respectable result tomorrow night despite her 10k inexperience.

Rebecca Clark-Pottorff (Florida State)

When Rebecca Clark-Pottorff is firing on all cylinders, she can be one of the more dangerous runners in the NCAA. She was, after all, the 40th place All-American at the 2021 NCAA Winter XC Championships.

But the Florida State veteran has since had a few streaks of not-so-great performances relative to that All-American result from 2021. If she can return to top form, then she'll be a top-10 collegiate in this field. That, however, is something that we'll have to wait and watch for.

Liz Galarza (Georgia Tech)

While she may not be the most consistent runner across three seasons, Liz Galarza has had a handful of moments where she's been very competitive, specifically on the grass. And if she can have one of those standout performances on Thursday, then she'll have a good chance of running faster than her current 34:14 (10k) PR...and potentially dipping under the 34-minute barrier in the process.

Fiona McLoughlin (Stony Brook)

A recent IC4A title over 5000 meters has to give Fiona McLoughlin some confidence and momentum going into Thursday. Her 10k PR of 34:15 is respectable, but we don't entirely know what to expect from this Stony Brook talent 24 hours from now.

Lindsey Ickes (High Point)

Lindsey Ickes had a fairly solid fall campaign, quietly putting together some really strong results. But her indoor track season was admittedly not too exciting, leaving us unsure what this High Point ace will do when she toes the line in Raleigh.

Kalea Bartolotto (Northwestern)

A 34:19 (10k) personal best is very respectable, but it's clear that Kalea Bartolotto and the rest of her Northwestern teammates have made significant strides in their fitness since Coach Jill Miller joined the Wildcats. And after the 2022 cross country season she had, we like Bartolotto as a key sleeper pick.