2023 NCAA D3 XC Championship Preview: NCC vs the Field, Patzka vs Gregg & Are the NYU Women Favored?

Written by Kevin Fischer, Conor Daly & Gavin Struve

Questions, edits and additional commentary via Gavin Struve & Garrett Zatlin

Click here for final predictions

Does seeing the Wartburg women (TSR #4) beat U. of Chicago (TSR #2) at the Midwest Regional XC Championships further muddy the podium and national title picture for the women’s team race? Along with NYU (TSR #1) and Carleton (TSR #3), who are you giving the team title edge to and why?

Conor: As good as the U. of Chicago women were in the early going, they have looked a bit fatigued in the latter stages of the season. Sure, getting out-dueled by both Wartburg and NYU is nothing to hang their heads about, but it’s hard to see the Maroons completely flipping the script on both of those teams...right?

Wartburg, who took down U. of Chicago at the Midwest regional meet, put on a show last weekend. It’s not unreasonable to think that the Knights can produce four individual All-Americans, three of whom could be top-20.

Their fifth runner, Haley Meyer, had a fine day, and she has made respectable improvements in 2023, but she was as far back as 20th place at her regional meet. That leaves me a bit concerned about how far back she could be pushed in a larger field, something that was a key area of emphasis for this team last fall.

While Carleton has the depth to compete with any of these teams, I struggle to see how they could come close to matching the firepower of their upper-tier opponents. I think the absence of a true low-stick (or two) will put them out of contention for a national title.

That leaves me with NYU who I am going to give the edge to.

Yes, they are relatively unproven, pretty much only earning their TSR #1 ranking from their performance at the UAA XC Championships, but that performance was so impressive that we can’t ignore it. Another major reason why the Violets are my pick is because they did not run all-out at their regional meet given that their top-four runners finished within a second of each other.

It’s also worthwhile to note that the Violets didn’t field their fifth runner from the UAA XC Championships, either. If she is resting up for Saturday, then that could prove to be a huge advantage.

All of these teams have had great seasons in their own right, and I would be shocked if any one of them don't find themselves on the podium.

Kevin: I think that those four teams will all be on the podium, and any of them could win...but yeah, I also have to take NYU.

I agree with Conor that while Carleton has great depth, which has helped them win some strong meets, they just don't have anybody on the same level as Lexi Brown, Grace Richardson or Evelyn Battleson-Gunkel who could possibly end up as three of the top-five scorers. Plus, there most likely isn't enough at the backend to make up for that difference.

Wartburg, U. of Chicago and NYU are obviously all pretty even through one scorer, and while the Maroons most likely have the best fifth scorer of those three teams, I think they will have too much ground to make up in the third and fourth scoring spots.

Wartburg and NYU both look like they have four clear All-Americans if all goes well, so the title could come down to the individual battle between Wartburg’s Haley Meyer and NYU’s Janie Cooper which I see Cooper winning.

Gavin: Wartburg winning the Midwest regional meet certainly makes the title race more interesting. The Knights have rarely been able to reach their lofty potential this fall, but they at least came close to doing so in their latest outing.

It’s hard to know how much stock to put into the regional stage, but it would be foolish to discount the contender status of our preseason TSR #1 team (U. of Chicago) when they appear to be rounding into form.

I’m with Kevin and Conor that Carleton has a lower ceiling than their podium-favorite contemporaries and that Wartburg is theoretically on even footing with NYU now after each recently beat U. of Chicago by similar margins. But I’ll give the edge to the team who was displayed virtually no flaws this fall despite being more unproven: NYU.

What has to happen for the North Central men (TSR #1) to be upset on Saturday? Which team will be the biggest threat to the Cardinals’ pursuit of a national title and why?

Conor: Even though the North Central men pulled off the win at the Midwest Regional XC Championships, I don’t think they looked amazing doing so. However, the main reason why their battle with our TSR #5 team, Wartburg, was so close was because of the absence of Connor Riss, one of the members of the elite front-four that the Cardinals are known for.

Although it’s very likely that his absence was a plan to have one of NCC's stars better-rested for the Big Dance the following week, that's still something to look for when the teams toe the line for the national meet on Saturday. If Riss is unable to compete this weekend, or is far from his best, the team race is altered immensely.

The safe assumption is that Riss will return. And in that scenario, the North Central men will likely put four runner in the top-25 -- and they'll just need a fifth scorer to be “good enough”.

Despite his early-season success which suggested that he would be a national championship caliber fifth man, freshman BJ Sorg hasn’t quite looked as sharp in his last two outings (although he hasn't necessarily been running poorly, either). However, James McGlashon has been trending upward and projects to be a top-80 guy, give or take.

At the end of the day, the answer to this question, ultimately comes down to how many points you think the Cardinals will need to take the team title…

I think that the only team who can challenge North Central for the title is the UW-La Crosse men. They have looked spectacular after dominating our current TSR #4 squad, UW-Whitewater, at their last two times out, seemingly peaking at just the right time.

Ethan Gregg should battle Christian Patzka for the individual title, Isaac Wegner looks like a top-10 finisher and Grant Matthai has come up huge recently, now vying for a top-25 spot in his season finale. Their fourth and fifth runners would have to be on their “A” game for an upset to become a reality, but with the momentum that the Eagles currently have, it’s very much in play.

Kevin: I agree that whether Connor Riss is 100% or not will be huge for the team race. If he ran last weekend, then the six-point gap ahead of Wartburg at the Midwest regional meet becomes a 20 to 25-point gap.

Of course, as Conor stated above, it's plenty likely that Riss was just being rested as the team prepares for their season finale. I would be a bit surprised to not see him on the starting line.

I also think that BJ Sorg will be a huge factor in the team race. As Conor mentioned, he hasn't been running quite as well in the latter stages of this season. That being said, he burst onto the scene in a major way earlier this fall, showing what he is capable of earlier this year.

If Sorg runs like that on Saturday, then we could see North Central with potentially five All-Americans which would more or less lock up the team title.

I think those uncertainties regarding the Cardinals open up a very legitimate path for UW-La Crosse to steal the national title. With the breakout of Grant Matthai this season, they have arguably the best top-three in the country.

If the Eagles can keep the gap small behind those front three and their latter two scorers, and ultimately combine for under 100 points, then I think that would be enough to steal NCAA gold. Their backend scorers do tend to shuffle around a bit, so it could be any number of guys that end up being the hero.

Gavin: I think these guys more or less hit the nail on the head.

Connor Riss being absent or less than his best and Sorg continuing a (very slight) downward trajectory from the start of the season would open the door for someone else to snag the team title. However, I think I’m a little higher on the Cardinals’ prospects if all things are equal.

Riss may have simply been rested, Sorg feels like one of the better backend scorers of any podium team and Matthai still needs to prove himself as an All-American talent.

North Central’s four stars haven’t given us much reason for doubt this fall. And although there’s a path for this team to walk away without gold, I’d still take the ‘Cards over the field.

On the women’s side, Fiona Smith has been largely unchallenged as our TSR #1 name this season thus far. What percent chance would you give for her to be upset on Saturday? Who presents the biggest threat to Smith’s first cross country individual title?

Conor: It’s Fiona Smith’s title to lose. If she runs even close to her best, then she’ll be able to take home the gold. In my mind, there’s a 5% chance we do not see Smith break the tape.

The most likely contender to be in that 5% is Genna Girard. The Ephs' focal star is undefeated this season, boasting a D3 Pre-Nationals victory by a staggering 15 seconds. With her combined experience and elite level of fitness, the Williams ace has to be considered Smith's main competitor on Saturday.

I think Grace Richardson of NYU also has a strong case for 2nd place, but a loss to Smith by over a minute at the Connecticut College Invite makes it nearly impossible to justify in any way that she makes up that margin.

Kevin: Nobody presents a threat to Fiona Smith, and I don't think the field will even attempt to challenge her. When you consider that she is running as an individual and not scoring team points, the potential costs of going for the win and risking blowing up outweigh the benefits.

With that said, I'd go even lower than Conor’s 5% mark and say that there is a 2% chance that Fiona Smith doesn't take the win.

I do agree that most of that very small chance is taken up by Genna Girard, and I don't want to take anything away from the season that she has had, but I just don't see her, or anyone else, being particularly close.

Gavin: I don’t envision many scenarios where someone jeopardizes their own race to put more pressure on Fiona Smith. That feels particularly true when considering that many of the top individuals’ teams are in the podium race.

But given the volatility inherent in such a high-stakes meet, and because Smith will be chasing her first cross country national title, I’ll give her a 10% chance of being upset. Genna Girard is the best candidate and perhaps the only woman who we should expect to finish within somewhat reasonable striking distance of Smith on Saturday.

Christian Patzka is a clear title favorite on the men’s side and Ethan Gregg is arguably in that conversation as well. However, they are not without challengers. Give us your men’s individual title pick and list a few names who you would expect to be competing for the overall win.

Kevin: Ethan Gregg is still Christian Patzka’s top challenger despite finishing 3rd at the North regional meet, especially when you consider that only one second separated them.

As far as other contenders, even though Isaac Wegner hasn't been on that tier for most of the season, you can't discount him after finishing runner-up in the North region — especially when, as I mentioned earlier, the gap behind Patzka was just over a second.

But I think Christopher Collet and Simon Heys will be even more serious as threats to challenge for the national title. Both have had great success on the track and they were on their “A” game at their respective regional meets.

Even so, anybody outside of Patzka and Gregg taking the win would surprise me. After the WIAC XC Championships, I gave Patzka a 50% shot, Gregg a 40% shot and the field a 10% shot of winning the individual national title. And after learning more from the regional meets, I'd move those probabilities to 55-30-15 in favor of Patzka.

Conor: Yes, Christian Patzka is the national title favorite, but not by a huge margin.

He’s undefeated this season against some tough fields, but he’s had some close calls. Three different men have been within two seconds of him. We’re talking about James Settles of Colorado College as well as Isaac Wegner and Ethan Gregg of UW-La Crosse.

Out of that trio, Gregg is regarded as the strongest challenger, but it’s also hard not to like Wegner who had the race of his life last week.

Settles’ only true competition this season came from Patzka. And once you consider that he cruised through his regional race over Lucas Florsheim, you have a pair of performances that suggest that he could take the title over Patzka. It’s also more than plausible that D3 Pre-Nationals champion, Simon Heys, takes home the national title. He has looked flawless this season.

The last name who I’m going to throw out there is Christopher Collet, the 7th place finisher at last year’s national meet. He took home the Midwest regional meet title over the men from North Central in dominant fashion, winning by over 10 seconds thanks to a blistering 8:31 final 3k. And regardless of how much emphasis you put on regional meets, it's good to know that this Wartburg veteran is sharp enough to finish that well in a championship race.

Gavin: With each passing meet, Patzka has seemingly created more separation between himself and Gregg in the race for the individual national title. The only men who I could see joining that race for NCAA gold are James Settles, who has been indefatigable outside of a one-second loss to Patzka earlier this season, and Christopher Collet, who set the D3 steeplechase record last spring and appears to be rounding into top form for the postseason.

While Simon Heys is arguably a better candidate than those men for a top-three finish, I’m not as sold on his upside compared to those men. Of course, I would hardly be upset if he proved me wrong. The same can be said for John Lucey of Williams.

Who is in line for a better-than-expected performance among women’s individuals on Saturday?

Kevin: Kayla Werner from Lynchburg. There was a lot of potential for her to succeed at the Division Three level when she transferred from Liberty and it really looks to be coming together now.

Despite a solid 4th place finish at the Mike Woods Invitational, we felt like she hadn't quite done enough to earn a top-20 ranking. However, her recent South Regional XC Championship victory over our TSR #13 runner, Brigid Hanley, was a sign that Werner is really clicking on all cylinders now. When you consider that Lynchburg won the team race by a tie-breaker, it makes her feat even more impressive.

Conor: Caroline McMartin (Central College) is in for a big race on Saturday. Even if she doesn’t have a stack of wins to her name, she’s been performing really well. It’s just that she has been going against some of the best of the best each time out.

At the Midwest regional meet, McMartin found herself heartbreakingly close to breaking the tape. She took our TSR #8 runner, Lexi Brown, to the line while taking down our TSR #4 runner, Evelyn Battleson-Gunkel, in the process.

Even if your emphasis on regional meets is lesser than ours, McMartin was at least able to show the country that she belongs in the top-tier of D3 competitions. If she’s able to replicate that performance on Saturday, then this veteran will find herself comfortably in the top-10.

Gavin: Relative to our rankings, you could argue that we’re undervaluing CMS standout, Natalie Bitetti (TSR #9) by quite a bit. That feels crazy to say about a top-10 name who has yet to finish in that range on the national stage, but this is a two-time All-American who arguably had her worst race of the season at the NCAA XC Championships last year upon placing 39th.

With high-level consistency (this fall) and tons of experience, Bitetti feels like one of the biggest locks among our top-20 names to finish in that range. In fact, I would even argue that she has top-five upside to boot.

Who is in line for a better-than-expected performance among men’s individuals on Saturday?

Kevin: I like Enrique Salazar (Manchester) a lot. I think that going to a small school combined with an underwhelming day at last fall's cross country national meet makes him a bit of an underrated name.

But when you go through his resume, it is highly impressive.

This season, Salazar has carried over his momentum from a 5th place finish over 10,000 meters at the 2023 outdoor national meet. Outside of an 11th place finish at the loaded Augustana Interregional, he has only lost to Simon Heys (TSR #3).

I think Salazar is in a better place than he was four weeks ago and is setting himself up well to peak for a breakthrough national meet performance.

Conor: I think Frank Csorba (Lynchburg) is ready to rip. He took home a convincing win at the Mike Woods Invitational over the likes of the men of Johns Hopkins and Carnegie Mellon, several of whom project to be All-Americans.

Ever since that race, Csorba hasn’t looked back. He hasn’t necessarily faced stiff competition since then, but has looked really strong in winning the ODAC XC Championships and the South regional meet recently. He seems to be in peak form as he prepares to compete with the best of the best.

Gavin: Matthew Porter (Carnegie Mellon) has wasted little time assimilating to the Division Three level after flashing glimpses of his potential during his time at Army. Although he hasn’t taken down any exceedingly high-profile names yet, he feels like a sure thing given his talent and high-level experience. That should translate to a top-20 finish as his team chases a podium spot.

Which teams do you think could surprise us on Saturday?

Kevin: On the men's side, I'm going to go with a team who has surprised us at this meet in previous years: John Carroll.

After a rough September adjusting to life without Alex Phillip, they are truly moving in the right direction with a dominant conference title and a solid Great Lakes regional meet win over a good Calvin team. With their recent history of peaking for the national meet, a top-10 finish for the Blue Streaks wouldn't shock me.

For the women, Central College, an “Honorable Mention” team in our most recent rankings update, is running well at the right time.

At the Midwest regional meet, they ran possibly their best race of the season, beating a “Just Missed” squad in Washington U. and staying within 20 points of the runner-up U. of Chicago women.

Caroline McMartin is in top form and looks like a super valuable low-stick while Megan Johnson should comfortably earn All-American status. If the backend scorers can keep the gap as small as possible, then the Dutch are in for a great team finish.

Conor: I think the Carnegie Mellon men could surprise a lot of people on Saturday.

Their depth has been hands-down ridiculous this fall as they have posted top-five time spreads of 15 seconds, 20 seconds and seven seconds in their last three outings.

Usually, when we see a team with a scoring compression that tight, they lack firepower. However, this is not the case with the Tartans. Matthew Porter is poised for a top-20 finish on Saturday and if the rest of the team's scorers perform at the level that they have been, then they could find their fifth runner within the top-50.

It’s more than reasonable to see the Tartans placing as high as 3rd place on a good day.

On the women’s side, the Emory Eagles have been on an upwards trajectory recently. After taking a very respectable 4th place finish at the UAA XC Championships, they had their best race of the season at the South regional meet. When the dust ultimately settled, both Lynchburg (TSR #10) and Emory had scored 40 points.

Ultimately, the Emory women lost in a tie-breaker, but seeing them battle with Lynchburg like they did was impressive to see. This team didn't even earn an “Honorable Mention” nod in our last team update, and now they could be in line to vie for a top-10 finish on their best day.

Gavin: It’s easy to forget that the Pomona-Pitzer men were the national team title favorites this time last year as they were defending their 2021 national title. But instead, they missed the podium entirely in Louisville and were underwhelming to start their 2023 fall campaign.

However, the Sagehens’ stars have looked far more formidable in the postseason during recent wins at the SCIAC XC Championships and the West Regional XC Championships. I see them as a backend podium squad this weekend.

I don’t think the regional meets would have changed the order of our latest women’s team rankings update much, other than perhaps bumping Wartburg up from TSR #4, so there’s not as much room for significant surprises in my eyes.

Of course, that’s not to say that we won’t get any. In terms of who may outperform their ranking, I think I’m most confident in Williams (TSR #8).

The Ephs have placed 7th (2021) and 9th (2022) on the national stage in recent years, and recent momentum suggests that they’re in line for something closer to the former result (or better). Their success in spite of star Molly Fitzgibbons’ recent struggles affords them untapped upside should she correct course for the postseason.