2022 Stanford Invite Preview

Each and every year, the Stanford Invite emerges as a meet that produces some of the fastest distance marks in the early portion of the outdoor track season. In fact, many of these distance results will likely stay near the top of the national leaderboard as we progress into April and May.

Due to the mass number of entries, it didn't seem feasible given our time constrictions to prepare a meet preview that touches on every single semi-competitive name in every single distance field.

However, what we did do is bring back our metaphorically patented Group Chat article! Below, Maura, Ben and Garrett answered a few questions about some of the distance fields at the Stanford Invite for this weekend.

Here we go...

Women's Preview

Arkansas’ Krissy Gear is entered in both the 800 meters and 1500 meters on Friday. Which event should she put more emphasis on this spring after a somewhat quiet indoor season individually?

Maura: Things started to come together for Gear right towards the end of the season in the mile. She wasn’t able to snatch a national qualifying time, but she was able to add to a Razorback DMR win.

Transitioning to outdoors, I think Gear should put more of an emphasis on the 1500 rather than the 800. The Arkansas stud has a 4:09 personal best, well ahead of her collegiate competitors. With some professionals entering the field, Gear could be brought along to a quick time, dare I say sub-4:12, and prove that she still has her mile-centric mojo.

Ben: I agree a lot with what Maura has said and will second her thoughts on Gear focusing more on the 1500. The Razorback has some good momentum coming off her 2:03 split in the DMR, but she has found more success in the 1500, historically.

Maybe the 800 is better at the beginning of the season as she continues to build up her base and her fitness, but by May, Gear will be a top contender once again in the 1500 meters.

Garrett: I see Krissy Gear in a position similar to that of Whittni Orton in 2021.

Last year, Orton clearly wasn't at 100% during the winter, but she slowly improved and still emerged to be a nationally competitive name. Then, fast forward to the spring, Orton began to not only return to her peak fitness, but she was also looking like one of the most dangerous distance runners in the country.

Gear's recent performances are mimicking a lot of what we saw from Orton last year. Gear still ran 4:36 in the mile this winter and while she was maybe not at 100%, she still had a promising base that she could build around.

The 1500 meters has been Gear's marquee distance for a while now and I think it's very reasonable for her to return to her peak fitness this spring. If anything, I think she's actually well positioned to peak better than most of the top contenders in the NCAA.

Proven half-milers such as Aurora Rynda (Michigan), Claire Seymour, Alena Ellsworth (BYU), Lauren Ellsworth (BYU) and Simone Plourde (Utah) will be taking on the 1500 field. Who has the best chance of finishing ahead of the others?

Maura: I’m liking the odds of Simone Plourde in the 1500 meters. Although she may not have the same 2:01 half-mile PRs that Rynda and Seymour do, her 1500 meter personal best of 4:16 speaks for itself.

The Utah Ute, who transferred from BYU last summer, ran a mile PR of 4:36 this past winter. She has already started her season off on a strong note, running 2:05 for 800 meters and nearly earning a win in the process.

Ben: I like Claire Seymour to make a big splash in her first collegiate 1500 meter race.

According to TFRRS, she has not run anything over 800 meters while at BYU. While there may be some growing pains or tactical errors in this race, she is the most talented runner out of this group and is coming off an outstanding performance at the NCAA Indoor Championships.

The BYU runner might be the most likely to blow up and finish last out of this group, but her talent and momentum leads me to believe she has the best chance at finishing at the top as well.

Garrett: It's gotta be Ellsworth or Plourde given their history of success in the mile and the 1500 meters. In fact, I would even say that Plourde is more a proven miler than she is a half-miler.

For that reason, give me the Utah ace who is going to be plenty familiar with the BYU women whom she will be toeing the line against. She ran 4:36 in the mile this past winter and if my memory serves me correctly, she split something even faster on Utah's DMR a month or two ago.

Colorado’s Rachel McArthur just finished 4th in the mile at the indoor national meet, earning her first individual All-American honor. She ran a 4:33 mile in the process. Is she the one to beat in this 1500 meter field? Or will someone else come out on top?

Maura: Honestly, I’m quite shocked that McArthur is racing this early in the season. The Colorado runner played her cards right during the indoor season, waiting to open up late into the winter season to avoid any burnout.

The Boulder-based star could still be riding her 4:33 mile high which she likely wants to take advantage of. That’s good momentum to have when racing a field full of potential All-Americans and half-milers jumping up in distance.

For that reason, I'll say that she's the one to beat. She's clicking on all cylinders right now.

Ben: Despite McArthur’s great run at the indoor national meet, Lauren Gregory is the runner to beat in this field, although it's not entirely clear if Gregory will be running the 1500 meters or the 10k this weekend. A double, while somewhat possible, isn't likely.

Gregory ran 4:32 in the mile during the indoor track season and is coming off of two top-five national meet finishes in the 3k and the 5k, respectively. She has a great track record of winning almost any race that she is entered in and I see that continuing this weekend.

Garrett: The uncertainty as to what Gregory runs on Friday makes this a tricky question to answer. If Gregory does run the 1500 meters, then she is likely a safer pick to finisher higher than McArthur.

Although, like Maura said, McArthur arguably has more momentum at this distance right now.

Let's assume that we're not factoring in Gregory. In that case, I think I would go with BYU's Courtney Wayment over McArthur...but it's close. Wayment is just so darn good and even though she'll be dropping down in distance, she can still match the firepower of McArthur.

Wayment is a very safe pick. Even when she ran a 4:33 mile time this past winter that was three seconds off of her personal best, the BYU star still stood at NCAA #12 on the national leaderboard.

For that reason, give me Wayment over McArthur.

What can Illinois’ Olivia Howell, a 4:09 runner for 1500 meters, do in her 5k debut? Could she be a legitimate contender for a top-three finish?

Maura: I don’t expect to see Howell in the top-three solely because she doesn’t have the same experience in the longer distances that some of her competitors do.

Now, that said, Howell has competed well on the cross country course, finishing amongst the middle of the pack. Plus, she's been running very solid times, boasting personal bests of 2:04 (800) and 4:33 (mile).

Howell has the potential to run sub-16:00, but I don’t think that will come this week. She will need a few 5k races in her legs before that happens. I mean, 12.5 laps is a whole lot more than the 3.75 laps that Howell is used to.

Ben: I slightly disagree with Maura, I think we could see Howell run under 16:00 this week. She has been running well all winter and this past fall she finished a respectable 24th place at the Midwest Regional XC Championships.

She clearly has plenty of speed and has enough strength that she will be a factor in this race. If she can get into a good rhythm early on, then she has a great chance of easily breaking 16:00 and being a top-three finisher.

Garrett: Gosh, I wish our answers were all unanimous because I don't know what to say or who to side with. If we're looking at the question that was actually posed, then I have to say that Howell will not be a top-three finisher in this 5k field.

I'll admit, I was prepared to say that there was zero chance Howell would be a top-three finisher in this field. However, the closer I looked, I began to realize that a top-three finish, maybe on a really good day, was somewhat possible for the Illinois veteran.

Even so, I still think the deck is stacked against her. Women like Hentemann, Venters, Smee, Nichols, Lawson, VanderLende are all too established in the longer distances for me to be comfortable about Howell being a top-three finisher. If the pace ends up being slower, then that could help her chances.

As for her time, Howell is probably going to be just on the line of the 16-minute barrier. I'll say 15:56 for the Illinois ace. That seems reasonable for a miler of her caliber who is moving up in distance.

Who will break 15:50 in the women’s 5k?

Maura:

• Gabby Hentemann (Oklahoma State)

• Abby Nichols (Colorado)

• Sydney Thorvaldson (Arkansas)

• Ruby Smee (San Francisco)

• Logan Jolly (Arkansas)

• Cara Woolnough (Utah)

• Emily Venters (Utah)

• Lucy Jenks (Stanford)

Ben:

• Olivia Howell (Illinois)

• Gabby Hentemann (Oklahoma State)

• Abby Nichols (Colorado)

• Sydney Thorvaldson (Arkansas)

• Ruby Smee (San Francisco)

• Logan Jolly (Arkansas)

• Cara Woolnough (Utah)

• Emily Venters (Utah)

Garrett:

• Gabby Hentemann (Oklahoma State)

• Ruby Smee (San Francisco)

• Logan Jolly (Arkansas)

• Emily Venters (Utah)

• Abby Nichols (Colorado)

• Lucy Jenks (Stanford)

• Jessica Lawson (Stanford)

Arkansas’ Lauren Gregory has never run a 10k in her college career. This weekend, when she makes her 10k debut, she will finish in the top _______ and run a time of ________.

NOTE: This question assumes that Gregory is actually contesting the 10k and not pacing.

Maura: top-two // 32:25

Ben: "the top spot" // 32:35

Garrett: top-three // 32:54

Men's Preview

Five Arkansas men are entered in the 1500 meters. They are Andrew Kibet, Amon Kemboi, Elias Schreml, Tommy Romanow and Ben Shearer. In what order will they finish?

NOTE: This question assumes that Kemboi is actually contesting the 1500 meters.

Maura:

1. Elias Schreml

2. Amon Kemboi

3. Ben Shearer

4. Andrew Kibet

5. Tommy Romanow

Ben:

1. Amon Kemboi

2. Elias Schreml

3. Andrew Kibet

4. Ben Shearer

5. Tommy Romanow

Garrett:

1. Elias Schreml

2. Amon Kemboi

3. Andrew Kibet

4. Ben Shearer

5. Tommy Romanow

_______ will win the men’s 1500 meters and a total of ____ collegiate men will run under 3:40.

Maura: Washington State's Colton Johnsen will win the men’s 1500 meters and eight men will run under 3:40 for 1500 meters.

Ben: Arkansas' Amon Kemboi will win the men’s 1500 meters and three men will run sub-3:40.

Garrett: Simon Fraser's Aaron Ahl will win the men's 1500 meters and six men will run sub-3:40.

Who will be the better combined trio in the 5k: Northern Arizona's Nico Young, George Kusche and Drew Bosley? Or Stanford’s Cole Sprout, Ky Robinson and Charles Hicks?

Maura: As much as I want to say the Lumberjacks, I’ve got to go with the home team and pick Stanford.

Sprout, Robinson and Hicks all left the NCAA Indoor Championships with All-American honors and finished their indoor seasons with stellar times. These three men all have PRs right around one another in the 5k and could feed off of each other’s energy.

As for the Northern Arizona trio, Young might be the favorite to win (unless you favor Ky Robinson) and Bosley should be close behind. However, Kusche just hasn’t found his groove since running a blistering time of 13:28 at the Boston University Season Opener.

Ben: I agree with Maura. Despite Northern Arizona winning the national title in the fall, Stanford’s top trio comes in with much more momentum after the indoor national meet. Nico Young and Drew Bosley against Sprout and Hicks is a more interesting conversation, and in that case, I might lean towards NAU.

However, it is hard to pick against a Stanford trio that has excelled at the longer distances over the last few seasons. They all peaked back in mid-March and I like to think that they still have tons of momentum.

Garrett: Not sure I can add anything new to this conversation. No matter what way you slice it, the Stanford men are likely favored to emerge as the "better" trio over Northern Arizona, although I'm not entirely sure if we're talking about time or placement in this scenario.

While Stanford is likely the bar, it's not like Northern Arizona can't walk away as having the better trio in this race. They are certainly capable of doing so.

Even so, the safer pick is Stanford, at least for this question.

What is your percent chance that a runner from Northern Arizona or Stanford DOES NOT win the 5k?

Maura: 30%. With the likes of Nico Young, Drew Bosley, Brodey Hasty and George Kusche, how can you bet against the Lumberjacks? Similarly, the Cardinal boast Charles Hicks, Cole Sprout, Ky Robinson and Thomas Boyden.

Each of these teams have depth past their top-three, making it even more unlikely for anyone to pull off an upset. Plus, when you spread my 30% chance out amongst the rest of the field, the probability doesn't seem nearly as high.

Ben: 5%. I don’t see anyone who is capable of taking down Stanford and NAU’s top names.

Garrett: 5%. Kemboi is the only realistic threat to either NAU or Stanford. However, even that feels like a stretch given that there is only one of Kemboi, 12 men from NAU and 12 men from Stanford in this field.

Is Abdi Nur untouchable in the 10k? What is your “over / under” time that you would set for him this weekend?

Maura: In this field, yes, he's basically untouchable. That's pretty crazy to say given how good some of these other entrants are. As for his "over / under" time, I'll say 27:50, only eight seconds off of his current PR.

Ben: There is no one in the country who can hang with Nur right now, especially not over 10,000 meters. He will win going away this weekend. As for an "over/under" time, I like Maura’s 27:50 mark, although I would lean towards him running quicker than that.

Garrett: Nur was untouchable at the indoor national meet and now he's moving up to what is, theoretically, his ideal distance. So yeah, he's touchable. I think we're really undervaluing what he could run on Friday. I'm setting the "over / under" time at 27:44.

Outside of Nur, who has the best chance at contending for the win: Casey Clinger (BYU) in his 10k debut, Alex Maier (Oklahoma State) after running 13:25 (5k) during indoors, D2 grad transfer Charlie Sweeney (Colorado) or someone else?

Maura: Oklahoma State’s Alex Maier was my dark horse pick in the 5k at the NCAA Indoor Championships this past winter. However, the Cowboy ace had an "off" day and faded to 16th place in that race.

His indoor season saw personal bests across the board, running 3:56 (mile), 7:46 (3k) and 13:25 (5k). His improvements in the “shorter” distances compared to the 10k sets him up nicely to contend for a very challenging upset bid on Friday and an even faster PR of 28:48.

Maier might have the highest ceiling in this field when everything comes together for him on the right day.

Ben: How is Casey Clinger just now making his 10k debut? This should be the perfect event for him and I could absolutely see him finishing 2nd overall in this race behind Nur. We haven’t seen him on the track in a while, but he ran 13:36 for 5000 meters back in December and has run 28:55 over 10k on the grass. This race will be an incredible fit for the Cougar.

Garrett: Funny enough, both Clinger and Maier were going to be my two choices coming into this race. I won't offer too much additional detail given that Maura and Ben have already offered their analysis, but if I had to choose one of these two, I'd say Clinger.

BYU has an extensive history of success in the 10k and in my mind, Clinger is better the longer the distance becomes.

I still find it highly unlikely that either Maier or Clinger will take down Nur, but if someone is going to challenge him and push the pace, then it's likely going to be Clinger.

The BYU men have dominated the steeplechase in the west for the past few years. This weekend, they have six men entered in a steeplechase field of 39 names. Will BYU veteran Garrett Marsing lead the team? Or will Kenneth Rooks find success after his season opener? How many BYU men will finish in the top-half of the field?

Maura: Marsing and Rooks both have national meet experience in the steeplechase. The two have personal bests only separated by five seconds. Not only that, but they both finished amongst the top-two in their season openers, with Marsing placing 2nd in the 1500 meters with a PR of 3:44 and Rooks earning the win in the steeplechase in a time of 8:45.

Since I’m forced to pick a BYU leader, I’m going to have to go with Marsing. Even though Rooks came out of a two-year hiatus with a strong opener, Marsing has more recent racing under his belt.

As for the Cougar men vs the field, I predict that Marsing, Rooks and Adam Wood will finish in the top-half of this race.

I’m a little more concerned about freshmen Davin Thompson, Zachary Erikson and Justin Hartshorn because they are still getting the technique down and will have to meander through their first competitive steeplechase.

Ben: I agree with Maura, I like Marsing to lead the BYU team in the steeplechase. He had such a great breakout season last year and I expect him to continue to build on that this spring. While he did not have a great indoor season, he has shown improvements since stepping onto the outdoor track.

As for who will finish in the top-half, I could see Marsing and Rooks being the only ones. With Colton Johnson and Ryan Smeeton in the field, this should be a quick race with plenty of great competitors.

Riley Osen and Felix Kandie are other names to keep an eye on, but I am really excited to see what Stephen Jones does in his first steeplechase race for the Colorado Buffaloes.

The former Mississippi State star qualified for the outdoor national meet in 2019 in this event and after a strong fall season that saw him finish 62nd at the NCAA XC Championships, he could be an All-American contender this spring.

Garrett: I don't have any reason to believe that Garrett Marsing won't lead this team. Rooks is an excellent talent and recently had a nice opener, but until Marsing gives me a reason not to pick him, I'll have to say that he'll be the top BYU steeplechaser this weekend. Rooks will likely be right behind him followed by Adam Wood.

At the same time, I wouldn't be surprised if the order of those three was switched.

This race is going to be pretty darn fast. With guys like Colton Johnsen and Ryan Smeeton in the field, the experience of Marsing, Rooks and Wood will likely give them an edge over their less experienced teammates.

In terms of how many BYU men will be in the top-half of this race, I'll have to say four. The three who I mentioned above are easy answers, but the Cougars have often found ways to make youngsters nationally competitive in the steeplechase. If I had to guess, I could see Davin Thompson being that fourth Cougar in the top-half of this field.