2022 D2 Indoor Scratch Predictions
- John Cusick
- Mar 1, 2022
- 16 min read
Updated: Mar 1, 2022

Trying to figure out the national qualifying fields for the D2 NCAA Indoor Championships is like trying to complete a puzzle without seeing the box. You have clues and ideas as to what certain areas are going to look like, but you're not 100% confident what the overall picture is going to be until everything is said and done.
This winter is no different as we attempted to decipher which national-caliber D2 distance stars will scratch from certain distance events and which ones won't.
Below, we offer our predictions and analysis for each of the distance races and ultimately give our predictions as to what these national fields are going to look like after scratches.
Keep in mind that unlike the D1 level, the qualifying criteria for the D2 national meet is less straightforward. At the D1 national meet, the top-16 non-scratching athletes in a certain event will advance to the postseason. If you're the 17th non-scratched individual in a certain event (or lower), then you will not qualify.
However, the D2 scene is a bit different.
Instead of establishing a specific field size for a certain event (like the top-16 as they do in D1), the D2 fields have desired "minimum" and "maximum" field sizes.
Those desired minimums for individual events is 16 and the desired maximum is 20.
It is possible that a certain distance field could be larger than a different distance field.
There is a very loose approach that the NCAA selection committee takes when determining these fields sizes, evaluating athletes who are also contesting other events and looking at certain cut-off times relative to competition.
Even so, trying to figure out these exact field sizes is boarderline impossible and there is no singular way that these field sizes are calculated. Just figuring out who will scratch and who won't scratch is often not enough to know with 100% certainty who will qualify for the national meets in the last few spots of a distance event.
So with that, please keep in mind that these are only predictions.
NOTE: We have been informed that D2 entries and declarations were released. They can be found here.
Women's 800 Meters
I believe that we will see VERY few athletes scratch from the top-16 of the women's 800 meters. Of the current top-16 athletes on the national leaderboard in this event, only three have marks in other events that will qualify them for the national meet.
Those athletes are Berenice Cleyet-Merle (Indianapolis), Hailey Streff (CSU-Pueblo), and Yasmine Hernandez (CSU-Pueblo). Everyone else is either part of a DMR or a 4x400 team, giving each runner the ability to compete as an individual in their respective open events.
Now, if there is an athlete that opts out of the 800, it could be CSU-Pueblo's Hailey Streff.
The indoor runner-up in the mile from last year does have a qualifying time in the mile (NCAA #11) and gaining more rest after a mile prelim, rather than an 800 meter prelim, would bolster the chances of the CSU-Pueblo's DMR team becoming All-Americans.
On paper, that makes the most sense, especially given how incredible she was in the mile last winter. While the incentive to race her sister Cami is hard to pass up, logistically, it makes more sense for Streff to scratch from the 800 meters and go after the mile/DMR double.
The other athlete who also could opt for just the mile and the DMR could be Streff’s teammate, Yasmine Hernandez.
The Thunderwolf veteran was the runner-up in the 800 meters last spring and has run 2:04 in the 800 meters before. She has the ability to run with Cleyet-Merle on the right day, although the mile would allow her to double a bit more efficiently in the DMR, just like we mentioned with Streff.
At the end of the day, we actually think that Hernandez will go for the mile/800/DMR triple. She isn't dramatically so much better in the 800 meters than she is in the mile (or vice versa). Giving her as many chances as she can to be nationally competitive, especially in races that feature Cleyet-Merle, seems to make sense.
The 800 meters lacks the kind of depth that the rest of these national distance fields have, and given the volatility of the event, there’s always the outside chance that things go awry for the favorite.
Although given that the overwhelming favorite is Cleyet-Merle, that seems unlikely.
Final Predictions:
Berenice Cleyet-Merle (Indianapolis)
Alison Andrews-Paul (Simon Fraser)
Yasmine Hernandez (CSU-Pueblo)
Kelly-Ann Beckford (Lincoln (MO))
Cami Streff (Augustana (SD))
Jana Shawver (Central Missouri)
Hailey Streff (CSU-Pueblo) -- SCRATCH
Katie McCune (Drury)
Elizabeth Acheson (U-Mary)
Caroilin Bothe (Wis.-Parkside)
Taryn Chapko (Grand Valley State)
Kinga Szarzynska (Harding)
Ukeyvia Beckwith (Embry-Riddle)
Bailey Blake (NW Missouri)
Michelle Kuipers (Colorado Christian)
Aryelle Wright (Colorado Mines)
Ines Macadam (Tiffin) -- LAST WOMAN IN
Men's 800 Meters
While looking through the national leaderboard on the men’s side, we get a nearly identical list as the women with the exception of two athletes, rather than one, who we think is going to scratch this event.
Western Washington's Macauley Franks is the first name who has the potential to scratch. He currently has the NCAA #10 time in the 800 meters and the NCAA #11 time in the mile. Franks has recently stormed onto the scene after an impressive finish at the GNAC Championships followed by this recent 800 effort.
We say "potential" because Western Washington doesn’t have a team within the top-12 for the DMR. This realistically means that Franks can race both events and be just fine.
It’s hard to say what his strongest event is, but if we had to pick an event for him, it would likely be the mile. In terms of gauging his postseason success, it probably makes sense for him to go all-in on the mile. Assuming he makes it to the mile finals, having an 800 meter prelim race in his legs from the day before wouldn't exactly be helpful.
Franks raced against Aaron Ahl extremely well and if he’s fresher than Ahl when the final rolls around, he might have a chance to be a sleeper name in that event.
This is also the first time that Franks has qualified for a national meet, so opting for a single race might be the strategy that pays off the most.
Then we come to Pittsburg State's Mason Strader who just ran 1:50.01 for 800 meters this past weekend at the MIAA Championships in a 2nd place effort.
There is no chance that Strader runs this race at the NCAA meet. He just went under the 4:00 barrier earlier this month and is a huge part of the Gorilla's DMR team. I don’t think there’s anything more important to him than winning national titles in both/either of those events.
Strader was sitting at NCAA #13 in this event before our predicted scratch, but you have to go all the way down to NCAA #24 before you could potentially see another scratch. The field is likely set all the way down to NCAA #17 runner, Jonathon Groendyk.
Terrell Patterson is an interesting name because he currently has the NCAA #17 time in the mile, which is technically on the outside-looking-in from an automatic qualifying perspective. However, Patterson just ran 1:50.01 at the Boston University Last Chance meet, signaling that he must think his best event is the half-mile.
It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Patterson pull out of the mile so that he only has one race in the legs before running the DMR. Admittedly, we think he's a better miler than a half-miler, but he definitely has the foot-speed to be competitive in an 800 meter race.
Final Predictions:
Clement Paillon (American International)
Tanner Maier (Minnesota State)
Butare Rugenerwa (West Texas A&M)
Wes Ferguson (Nebraska Kearney)
Cole Willis (Nebraska Kearney)
Nick Nowlen (MSU-Denver)
Jared Gilley (Dallas Baptist)
Terrell Patterson (Southern Connecticut State)
Dennis Mbuta (Grand Valley State)
David Cardenas (Adams State)
Macauley Franks (Western Washington) – SCRATCH
Nathan Hood (CSU-Pueblo)
Mason Strader (Pittsburg State) – SCRATCH
Titus Lagat (Lee (Tenn.))
Ryan Karker (Northwood (Mich.))
Seth Simonson (Nebraska Kearney)
Jonathan Groendyk (Grand Valley State)
Stephen Barker (Northwood (Mich.)) – LAST MAN IN
Women's Mile
The mile as a whole is one of the toughest events to predict. Usually, if you’re good in the mile, you’re good in other events as well, whether it’s going up in distance or going down in distance.
When we take a look at this year’s national leaderboard, one name in particular stands out as a fairly obvious scratch.
In our eyes, we think Cleyet-Merle (Indianapolis), Hernandez (CSU-Pueblo), Klaudia O’Malley (Grand Valley State) and Fiona Hawkins (Adams State) are all going to run the mile and will likely run the DMR when the NCAA Indoor Championships comes around.
However, the first name who should scratch is Western Colorado’s Katie Doucette. She currently holds the NCAA #11 time in the 3k, the NCAA #4 time in the 5k and is part of the Mountaineer’s DMR team.
Those rankings easily cut the mile out of Doucette's postseason schedule as she has predominantly been a 3k/5k athlete during the winter months and throughout her career.
Doucette's best chance at an NCAA title is the 5000 meters, making the idea of running the DMR seem incredibly unlikely. In the end, we think she scratches the mile, pursues the 5k/3k double and lets another teammate fill the void in the distance medley relay.
After Doucette, we get to Lee’s Celine Ritter who has the NCAA #8 time in the mile this season. She also has the NCAA #1 in the 3k and the NCAA #3 time in the 5k, as well as being the anchor on the DMR team that holds the NCAA #12 mark.
She’s the reigning 3000 meter champion, so we know that defending her title in that event is likely number one on her priority list. Luckily, her choice of the mile or the 5k won't dramatically alter her chances of success in that event.
Ritter is simply ranked too high in the 5k and the 3k to avoid that double. Going after the mile would mean that Ritter has to run the mile finals on the same day as her 3k final. On paper, that doesn't seem to make sense, especially if Ritter believes that her best chance of NCAA gold is the 3000 meters.
For that reason, we see her scratching the mile in favor of the 5000 meters and effectively putting Lee in a position where they may need to find another DMR leg.
Grand Valley State veteran Allie Ludge is the next name who sticks out. She could go in two different directions when it comes to her national qualifying plans.
Ludge currently has the NCAA #12 time in the mile. She also holds the NCAA #9 mark in the 3000 meters. On paper, her best chance at an NCAA title should come in the 3000 meters.
We’ve already seen Ludge attempt the mile/DMR/3k triple already once in her career and it led to top-five finishes in all three races. The question is whether or not she is in that kind of shape again this season. Right now she is scheduled to contest all three of those races again.
We believe that Ludge is going to run all three of these events despite not being in the same kind of shape that she was a few years ago. She has the qualities you need in an anchor for the DMR and she has proven that she can handle preliminary rounds with ease, making her an extremely viable option for Grand Valley State.
Layla Almasri (UC-Colorado Springs) is another name worth mentioning after her effort at the RMAC Championships this past weekend. Almasri currently sits at NCAA #15 (mile), NCAA #12 (3000) and is part of the NCAA #11 DMR squad.
Much like Ludge, we expect to see Almasri race all three of these events. The only thing prior to the DMR is the mile, and the 3000 meters is the last distance event of the weekend, giving Almasri the ability to focus on the mile and the DMR before that distance finale.
If we do see the aforementioned Katie Doucette as the only scratch in this field, then that leaves us at NCAA #17 which belongs to Augustana's PJ English. However, with Ritter potentially scratching, we could see Courtney McAlindon sneak into the national meet.
Final Predictions:
Berenice Cleyet-Merle (Indianapolis)
Yasmine Hernandez (CSU-Pueblo)
Klaudia O’Malley (Grand Valley State)
Fiona Hawkins (Adams State)
Katie Doucette (Western Colorado) – SCRATCH
Nicole Lawrence (Adams State)
Natalia Novak (Academy of Art)
Celine Ritter (Lee (Tenn.)) – SCRATCH
Morgan Hykes (Adams State)
Claire McCune (Drury)
Hailey Streff (CSU-Pueblo)
Allie Ludge (Grand Valley State)
Nicolette Schmidt (Augustana (S.D.))
Ava O’Connor (Adams State)
Layla Almasri (UC-Colorado Springs)
Kaylee Beyer (Winona State)
PJ English (Augustana (S.D.))
Courtney McAlindon (Westminster (UT)) – LAST WOMAN IN
Men's Mile
We have now arrived as what might be seen as the most exciting event at the NCAA Indoor Championships this year. With the NCAA #16 mark stopping at 4:04.11, the men's mile may be the most competitive it has ever been -- and everyone is very much aware of that.
Christian Noble (Lee Tenn.)) just broke the D2 record in the mile, so an NCAA title should be in his sights. Lee has expressed interest in taking home the DMR title as well.
Noble is the returning champion at 3000 meters, and much like his teammate Ritter, it is expected that he enters that event as well. That would leave the 5k on the chopping block for Noble.
Yes, he’s the reigning champ in that discipline, but there’s something different about the DMR this season. With Carson Bix added in the mix, the Flames have a chance to be the best DMR team in history with a win in March. That will play heavily into Noble’s decision, as well as Bix’s decision.
Speaking of Bix, he’s currently ranked at NCAA #8 right now for a mile, NCAA #5 for 3000 meters, #12 for 5000 meters. As we said earlier, he is part of the NCAA #11 DMR team.
We think it’s easiest to cut-out the 5000 meters for Bix despite his success in that event during the outdoor season. When it comes to bragging rights, the DMR holds more weight than the 5k, and it won’t come as a surprise for Noble and Bix to choose a team race over a third individual race.
Plus, the DMR fits into their national meet schedule far more easily than the 5k does.
Aaron Ahl (Simon Fraser), Mason Strader (Pittsburg State) and Callum Elson (American International) have all broken the 4:00 barrier in the mile this winter and we would be shocked if they didn’t declare for this event. All three will contest the DMR as well, while Ahl (and maybe Ellson) likely adds the 3000 meters to his individual slate.
Adams State’s Davonte Jett-Reynolds currently has the NCAA #5 mile time this year after a conversion. He also has the NCAA #9 time in the 3000 meters AND is part of the NCAA #1 DMR team after his performance at the RMAC Championships.
Jett-Reynolds is really only in this discussion because of his role on the DMR team. The Grizzlies are likely looking for a team championship, and taking Jett-Reynolds out of the DMR team could hurt them severely.
Jett-Reynolds' teammate, James Dunne, is also part of our uncertainty for what he may run.
Dunne currently has the NCAA #7 mile time and just ran 7:54 (3k) at Boston University's Last Chance meet. Dunne will also be considered for the Grizzlies' DMR squad at the NCAA Indoor Championships, potentially leaving him with three events to participate in as well.
Earlier this season, we thought it would have been crazy to see someone challenge Aaron Ahl in the 3000 meters. However, that event now seems as wide-open as it has ever been. If Dunne is part of Adams State's DMR team, then it will make a bid at the 3000 meters title that much harder for him.
However, if a team title is the ultimate goal, then a top-eight performance may be all that him and Jett-Reynolds need to achieve.
The odds are more likely that we see Dunne in all three events, but we wouldn’t be shocked if we saw Adams State to try and compartmentalize their best events in order to take full aim at a team title this year.
The only other two names who could scratch are David Cardenas (Adams State) and Macauley Franks (Western Washington). We’ve already talked about how we expect Franks to contest just the mile, and we’ll go on record saying that we think Cardenas will choose to only race the 800 meters as an individual event this year.
As a result, we think Cardenas will scratch.
After winning the RMAC title this last weekend, it seems obvious that Cardenas will opt for the 800 meters and then be part of Adams State's DMR (likely running the 800 leg). He’s got the NCAA #10 time in both events, but all the way back in high school, Cardenas primarily ran the 800 meters in championship events.
He’ll be aiming to get 10 points in the DMR, and then double back the next day for an All-American performance in the half-mile event.
The mile/DMR combination is usually the most prominent at NCAA meets, and you’ll see that again this year as there’s an expectation that 11 men (!) will race as part of the mile earlier in the day and then come back as some part of the relay later that night.
Final Predictions:
Christian Noble (Lee (Tenn.))
Aaron Ahl (Simon Fraser)
Mason Strader (Pittsburg State)
Callum Elson (American International)
Davonte Jett-Reynolds (Adams State)
Luke Julian (Colorado Mines)
James Dunne (Adams State)
Carson Bix (Lee (Tenn.))
Ryan Riddle (Missouri Southern)
David Cardenas (Adams State) – SCRATCH
Macauley Franks (Western Washington)
Austin Miller (Augustana (S.D.))
Mitch Cox (Queens (N.C.))
Charlie Dannatt (Simon Fraser)
Tony Torres (Colorado Mesa)
Evan Graff (UC-Colorado Springs)
Terrell Patterson (Southern Connecticut State) – SCRATCH
Ryan Hartman (Augustana (S.D.))
Andrew O'Keeffe (Adams State) – LAST MAN IN
Women's & Men's 3000 Meters
The 3000 meters is one of the most thrilling events, and it also happens to be the deepest event for this year's NCAA Indoor Championships on both the women's and men’s sides of things. This year, in order to qualify for this event, you had to run 9:32.01 (women) and 8:00.43 (men) just to nab that final qualifying spot.
We’re doing both of these events together because, well, there’s a very good chance that not a single athlete inside the top-16 is going to scratch this event leading up to the NCAA Indoor Championships.
However, if we had to guess, we would say that U. Indy star Berenice Cleyert-Merle is going to scratch the 3000 meters.
She is still highly ranked in the event, but the Greyhound star is better in the middle distance events than in the longer events like the 3000 meters. Plus, the mile/800/DMR triple is already asking a lot and trying to run five races in two days seems like enough of a challenge.
Asking Cleyert-Merle to run six races in two days seems unlikely.
When we look at the women’s list, every mark has come after the new year. To even further that point, 12 of the 16 results have happened in February with seven of them happening on conference weekend.
On the men’s side, it is much of the same with 13 of the top-16 results coming in February with another seven of those happening in the last two weekends.
The reason that's important is because it indicates that everyone just ran a historically fast time in an effort to seemingly peak for the postseason. For a lot of athletes, the 3000 meters is their best event, making scratches even less likely.
The added implications of the 3000 meters are nearly zero as it is the last distance race of the weekend and it won’t impact any of the other races for these athletes, meaning that there is no real reason for them to scratch this event.
We do, however, expect the NCAA to be a bit more generous in this event when it comes to national qualifying expanding the field sizes past the minimum top-16 standard. This is because so many of these athletes are also qualified in other events.
Final Predictions (Women):
Celine Ritter (Lee (Tenn.))
Brianna Robles (Adams State)
Fatima Alanis (Queen (N.C.))
Morgan Hykes (Adams State)
Klaudia O’Malley (Grand Valley State)
Jessica Gockley (Grand Valley State)
Berenice Cleyet-Merle (Indianapolis) -- SCRATCH
Zoe Baker (Colorado Mines)
Allie Ludge (Grand Valley State)
Emily Schoellkopf (Adams State)
Katie Doucette (Western Colorado)
Layla Almasri (UC-Colorado Springs)
Natalia Novak (Academy of Art)
Fiona Hawkins (Adams State)
Precious Robinson (Adams State)
Alexa Leppelmeier (Walsh)
Franziska Althaus (Adams State)
Stevie Lawrence (Queens (N.C)) -- LAST WOMAN IN
Final Predictions (Men):
Christian Noble (Lee (Tenn.))
Aaron Ahl (Simon Fraser)
Titus Winders (Southern Indiana)
James Dunne (Adams State)
Carson Bix (Lee (Tenn.))
Loic Scomparin (Colorado Mines)
Dillon Powell (Colorado Mines)
Tanner Chada (Grand Valley State)
Davonte Jett-Reynolds (Adams State)
Ryan Riddle (Missouri Southern)
Ezra Mutai (American International)
CarLee Stimpfel (Saginaw Valley)
Jake Mitchem (Colorado Mines)
Afewerki Zeru (UC-Colorado Springs)
Dylan Ko (Colorado Mines)
Isaac Harding (Grand Valley State)
Kyle Moran (Colorado Mines)
Clement Duigou (Adams State)
Callum Elson (American International) -- LAST MAN IN
Women's 5000 Meters
When you look at the women’s 5000 meters, it doesn’t appear that there’s an athlete who will be scratching this event. While it is the first final for distance events, most athletes who are part of the 5000 meters are not part of the DMR, making this call a little bit easier.
That’s still the case this year, but it’s worth noting that Brianna Robles (Adams State), Celine Ritter (Lee (Tenn.)) Katie Doucette (Western Colorado) and Fatima Alanis (Queens (N.C.)) were all anchors for their respective DMR teams which they helped qualify for the NCAA Indoor Championships.
It’s safe to say that Robles and Doucette will opt for just the 5k/3k double while Ritter and Alanis might be the only ones in the field with a real predicament on her hands.
Helping the Flames become DMR All-Americans could be extremely special, but so could winning two NCAA titles which Ritter has a legitimate shot at doing this year in the 5000 meters and the 3000 meters. Meanwhile, Alanis just helped the Royals to the NCAA #2 time in the DMR and if she comes off that team, it’s a big blow.
But much like Ritter, Alanis has a legitimate shot at taking home two NCAA titles individually and we think that she will make the most of that opportunity.
Both women should choose the 5k/3k double and let another teammate take over their spots in the DMR. If they indeed do that, then we’re looking at the top-16 athletes (and a few bonus entries) all declaring for this event.
Final Predictions:
Brianna Robles (Adams State)
Zoe Baker (Colorado Mines)
Celine Ritter (Lee (Tenn.))
Katie Doucette (Western Colorado)
Lindsay Cunningham (Winona State)
Jessica Gockley (Grand Valley State)
Fatima Alanis (Queens (N.C.))
Annika Esvelt (Seattle Pacific)
Franziska Althaus (Adams State)
Molly Maksin (Colorado Mines)
Precious Robinson (Adams State)
Gemma Rebollo (Wingate)
Saydi Anderson (Westminster (Utah))
Jennifer Comastri (Southern Indiana)
Kylie Anicic (Edinboro)
Jenna Ramsey (Emporia State)
Kayce Rypma (Grand Valley State)
Cameron Hough (Southern Indiana)
Alexa Leppelmeier (Walsh) – LAST WOMAN IN
Men's 5000 Meters
The men’s side of things becomes a little trickier when we begin to look at names and the ability that some of those athletes have. However, there are only two names in the field that are definitely going to scratch and that is the duo from Lee (Tenn.), Christian Noble and Carson Bix.
When Bix transferred into this program, the immediate subject to talk about was how good their DMR team could be. And in all honesty, we probably haven’t seen this team compete at their highest level just yet, at least not in the DMR. With just the mile prelims prior to the DMR, we expect both athletes to pursue an individual mile title, as well as the 3000 meters.
From a scheduling perspective, that makes the most sense.
Now that there are two men scratched, that takes us down the NCAA #18 time, and that belongs to Ryan Riddle. The Missouri Southern veteran is already qualified in the mile and the 3000 meters, and the 5k is likely his worst event on an indoor track.
We think Riddle scratches this race in an effort to be fresh for the mile and finish better than the 4th place spot that he earned a year ago.
That leaves us with Mathurin Boutte of Queens (N.C.) who has the NCAA #19 time in the 5000 meters and looks to be sneaking into the national meet at the very last possible moment.
Final Predictions:
Dillon Powell (Colorado Mines)
Kyle Moran (Colorado Mines)
Awet Beraki (Adams State)
Jake Mitchem (Colorado Mines)
Ezra Mutai (American International)
Isaac Harding (Grand Valley State)
Tanner Chada (Grand Valley State)
Dylan Ko (Colorado Mines)
Jan Lukas Becker (Queens (N.C.))
Christian Noble (Lee (Tenn.)) -- SCRATCH
Afewerki Zeru (UC-Colorado Springs)
Carson Bix (Lee (Tenn.)) -- SCRATCH
Titus Winders (Southern Indiana)
Dayton Brown (Saginaw Valley)
CarLee Stimpfel (Saginaw Valley)
Duncan Fuehne (Colorado Mines)
Isaiah Rodarte (Adams State)
Ryan Riddle (Missouri Southern) -- SCRATCH
Mathurin Boutte (Queens (N.C.)) -- LAST MAN IN
Women's & Men's Distance Medley Relay
The distance medley relay is by far the easiest one to predict and that is because the NCAA only takes the top-12 teams. And the only way you are scratching this event is if you have a second team that is inside the top-12.
We could be repetitive with our DMR scenarios, but we break all of that down in our above sections, so we suggest reading that.
Final Predictions (Women):
Adams State
Queens (N.C.)
Grand Valley State
Augustana (S.D.)
Indianapolis
Western Colorado
Grand Valley State (B) – NOT ELIGIBLE
Simon Fraser
CSU-Pueblo
Academy of Art
UC-Colorado Springs
Lee (Tenn.)
Indianapolis (B) – INELIGIBLE
Azusa Pacific – LAST TEAM IN
Final Predictions (Men):
Adams State
American International
Pittsburg State
Simon Fraser
Augustana (S.D.)
Grand Valley State
Nebraska-Kearney
CSU-Pueblo
Simon Fraser (B) -- NOT ELIGIBLE
Southern Connecticut State
Lee (Tenn.)
Grand Valley State (B) -- NOT ELIGIBLE
Colorado Mines
Northwood (Mich.) – LAST TEAM IN
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