2022 Cross Questions

The summer of 2020 naturally held plenty of uncertainty. No one really knew what was going to happen and generally speaking, we had more questions than answers. As a result, we put together (and continued upon) an article series that I like to call "Cross Questions" which poses 22 questions about an upcoming season of cross country competition.

Here are some of the more pressing questions that we have for the upcoming 2022 cross country season...

1. Will Abdi Nur go pro or continue with his eligibility?

This is a question that no one knows the answer to (yet), but it could have massive implications on the NCAA. Nur is someone likely favored to win the cross country national title this fall and his return to the Lumberjacks would essentially solidify them as the national title favorites once more.

But with the World Championships fast approaching, is there a scenario where Nur dons a new singlet and stuns everyone with his signing in Eugene? Maybe, but the deeper we get into the summer months, the more likely it feels like Nur will return to the collegiate realm.

That, of course, is just speculation.

2. Is Mercy Chelangat or Katelyn Tuohy the bigger national title favorite?

I think everyone will be eager to jump at this question and say Katelyn Tuohy -- and I totally understand that! And while Tuohy was beyond incredible on the outdoor oval this past fall, we have to remember that, on paper, Mercy Chelangat has been better on the grass.

When Chelangat is in her prime, she's either winning a cross country national title or earning runner-up honors. The idea that Tuohy is simply going to trounce her competition by moving up closer to Chelangat's ideal distance feels a little misguided.

Chelangat is at her best in the longer distances and on the grass, but Tuohy is beginning to reach the athletic prime of her collegiate career. I could understand arguments for either woman being the national title favorite this fall.

3. How good will the Tennessee men be this fall?

When it was announced that Dylan Jacobs would be joining the Volunteers, I started to do some math. Even if Jacobs was winning conference and regional titles last year, the Tennessee men weren't going to make that much noise.

But then they got Yaseen Abdalla.

Abdalla's best cross country race of his career was easily his 32nd place All-American finish at the NCAA XC Championships last fall. But at the very least, he gives the Tennessee men one more front-runner to lean-on. He also takes scoring pressure off of the backend of this lineup which would have held more weight in the team scoring before Abdalla signed with the Vols.

Still, expecting Tennessee to make the national meet right now isn't a guarantee. There are still major questions about the depth of this program and it's not like Jacobs, Abdalla and Thiessen are going to be sweeping the top-three spots at every meet.

That said, if Tennessee lands one more scoring piece -- and they very well could -- then this is a program that could be going to the national meet in November.

4. What kind of impact could freshman Natalie Cook have for Oklahoma State?

Cook is almost definitely an All-American-caliber talent, something I feel confident saying even before she toes the line in an Oklahoma State singlet. Of course, trying to determine where she'll be in that top-40 is admittedly a challenge.

Either way, Taylor Roe is a true star, Molly Born is a reliable veteran, Gabby Hentemann is beginning to peak and the rest of this recruiting class is promising. If everyone on this team runs their best race on the same day, then the theoretical All-American scoring potency of Cook could put the Cowgirls on the podium.

Admittedly, there's no air-tight guarantee that Cook will be a top-tier star. There's also no guarantee that Born will return to her 2019 fitness or that Hentemann will translate her success on the track to the grass.

There's also no guarantee there will be a reliable fifth scorer or that everyone will run their best on the same day. In other words, Cook's contributions to Oklahoma State are only as good as the women around her.

Even so, this Texas native could be the missing piece who puts the Cowgirls over the top and into the top-four team spots come November.

5. If Nur stays in the NCAA, how likely is it that freshman Colin Sahlman will redshirt?

I have a feeling that Sahlman will run for Northern Arizona this fall regardless of whether or not Nur returns. However, in a world where Nur uses his eligibility and doesn't turn pro, it seems fair to say that the Lumberjacks wouldn't necessarily need Sahlman's scoring this fall.

After all, Northern Arizona returns everyone, including their top-five All-Americans from last year's lineup.

If Nur returns to this NAU lineup, then I think Sahlman's chances of redshirting go up to about 15% to 20%. But if Nur went pro, then NAU would likely want to replace as much as that scoring as possible, meaning that Sahlman's chances of redshirting (in my eyes) would go down to 2%.

6. What kind of impact could freshman Jenna Hutchins have for BYU?

The Cougars lose a lot of key women from last year's top-seven, including All-American standouts like Whittni Orton, Anna Camp and Sara Musselman. However, there are still plenty of promising pieces who could play a significant scoring role for BYU this fall.

Aubrey Frentheway is an underrated All-American low-stick, Lindsey Stallworth is an All-American transfer, Lexy Halladay was excellent this past spring, McKenna Lee has been extremely close to earning All-American honors twice in her career and Anna Martin is a strong support piece.

When you add in someone like Hutchins, who could be an All-American candidate come November, you begin to realize that BYU's chances of a podium finish aren't that crazy.

Of course, much like Oklahoma State, a lot needs to go right for the Cougars in order for that to happen. Hutchins could be a top-30 runner in the country this fall, but if the rest of her team doesn't offer depth or top-end scoring support, then her impact will be relatively minimal.

Still, Hutchins is far more likely to benefit this team than not.

7. Who is the biggest threat to the Northern Arizona men?

The answer to this question depends on what lineup structure you think is the best way to take down the Lumberjacks.

If you prefer overwhelming firepower with "good enough" depth, then Stanford is your team. If you prefer a more complete lineup with slightly (and I mean, very slightly) less firepower, then go with Oklahoma State.

I don't see Northern Arizona losing the national title this year, but I've been wrong before.

8. Who is the biggest threat to the NC State women?

It's easily New Mexico. No other team in the country can match NC State's firepower and depth in the same way that the Lobos can.

Now, admittedly, if you were to go through all seven varsity spots in both team's lineups, then you'll find that NC State is likely better at each of those five to seven spots...but not by much. We also have to realize that the success of the New Mexico women is highly dependent on how well they translate their recent track accolades to the grass.

Still, the Lobos are a phenomenal team and while NC State will remain the national title favorites for now, I wouldn't necessarily count out New Mexico women a few months from now.

9. How will the Notre Dame men perform this fall?

I honestly have no idea. The Irish are a tough team to figure out. They lost Kilrea, Nuguse, Jacobs, Russo and Alexander all at once. That's brutal.

Now, that said, Carmody is due for a top-tier All-American result, Methner has proven to be a high-level name on the east coast and Renfree has shown in the past that he can be an All-American on the grass.

Those are three excellent distance talents who can provide great scoring potency for the Irish. However, that top-three is far from perfect and the rest of this lineup looks unfinished. Luckily, the introduction of graduate transfer Kevin Berry could be huge and adding an elite recruiting class is game-changing.

Is Notre Dame a top-10 team? Probably.

Could they get on the podium? It's unlikely, but still possible.

Regardless, two or three years down the line, this could still be one of the better teams in the country.

10. Are the Colorado women a podium team?

I think they probably could be, but mainly because so many of the nation's best teams from last year lost so many key scorers and are probably out of the podium conversation.

Covert is a star, Hertenstein is a reliable All-American, Miniutti looks like an excellent support piece and Baran should at least solidify portions of the Buffaloes' top-five. There are a handful of talented women throughout the rest of this roster and the introduction of Addy Wiley is a quietly great addition.

Colorado isn't necessarily a complete team, but they're complete enough. And in this year's field of returners, I don't see many others podium contenders that could match their firepower.

11. How will the Montana State men translate their success on the track to the grass?

Montana State could be a phenomenal team this fall if they full translate their success from the track to the grass. This past year, Duncan Hamilton ran 8:18 in the steeplechase, Ben Perrin ran 13:36 in the 5k and Levi Taylor ran 8:27 in the steeplechase. Matthew Richtman also returns after individually qualifying for the 2021 cross country national meet.

Of course, as many of us know, there's no guarantee that track performances will be fully reflected during cross country races. And that's what makes this exercise difficult.

Strictly in theory, the Bobcats have more high-caliber distance talents than some top-10 teams. But there's also no guarantee that Montana State will fill out their top-five completely, leaving us with even greater uncertainty entering this fall.

Still, the potential upside of this team is wildly exciting.

12. How good will the Georgetown women be after bringing in three high-impact graduate transfers?

The Georgetown women lose only one woman from their 2021 varsity lineup (Kiera Bothwell). They also bring in three graduate transfers in Andrea Claeson, Grace Jensen and Katy-Ann McDonald.

With Sami Corman and Maggie Donahue leading the way as All-American candidates, the Hoyas now have some of the best depth in the country. On paper, they don't necessarily have a flaw or weak point in their varsity lineup. Not only that, but some of these women could end up being fringe All-Americans when it's all said and done.

The Hoyas still need more front-end scoring before we can truly put them in the podium conversation, but the nucleus of talent on this roster is exceptional. Expect the Hoyas to be a top-10 (ish) team in 2022.

13. Will Ben Thomas and Helen Lehman-Winters still be on Oregon's coaching staff by the fall after Jerry Schumacher was introduced as the Ducks' newest head coach?

If the Oregon Ducks had hired a non-distance running coach as the team's newest Director of Track & Field and Cross Country, then we wouldn't be asking this question.

But that's not what happened and instead, we now have to question if Ben Thomas and Helen Lehman-Winters will be on this coaching staff a month or two from now. If not, then where would they go? Would the Director jobs at TCU or Illinois be suitable for them?

I have no idea what the answers to those questions are, but there's a very real possibility that two of the highest profile coaches in the NCAA could be on the move in a few weeks (but again, that's only speculation).

14. What kind of impact in recruiting and training will Schumacher have on the Oregon Ducks this fall?

Seeing Sean Carlson already have an impact at Tennessee, recently signing Jacobs and Abdalla, has shown us what can happen when a new top-tier coach is brought into a program.

However, Schumacher joined the Oregon Ducks relatively late in the summer and most (but not all) of the best names in the transfer portal have been picked up. Is there anyone else from the transfer portal who could be added to Oregon's 2022 roster?

The Ducks are also a team that struggled at the 2021 cross country national meet last fall. Their men's group placed 29th overall while their women's team placed 24th overall. Many of Oregon's top scorers are now gone, although Bienenfeld could potentially return depending on his appeal for eligibility goes.

Schumacher is not exactly walking into the most ideal situation when it comes to cross country in Eugene, Oregon. His coaching expertise will be put to the test this fall as he'll have limited scoring weapons to work with in 2022...well, at least on paper he will.

15. What is the ceiling for the North Carolina men?

This is a question that we've been asking for the last few seasons following the influx of young talent that we've seen Coach Miltenberg recruit to Chapel Hill. And honestly, I still don't think I have a good answer to this question.

The recent loss of Jack Aho isn't great, but it's far from devastating. The Tar Heels still have Parker Wolfe to give them a key scoring spark and there's solid depth throughout the rest of this lineup.

However, it feels like the learning curve is now over and done with for many of the younger men on this squad. This North Carolina team now needs to step up and deliver top-tier results with valuable NCAA experience now backing them.

Some teams rely on their number of returners or incoming transfers to give them scoring sparks. But the UNC men simply need to rely on natural development to get to that next level.

16. What is the ceiling for the North Carolina women?

I think it's a bit higher than the men's ceiling. This team returns everyone except Paige Hofstad who admittedly didn't play much of a role in the Tar Heels' 14th place finish at the 2021 NCAA XC Championships.

Brynn Brown and Kelsey Harrington were top-70 national meet finishers last fall and Sasha Neglia, at her best, is probably in the same tier. With a handful of promising depth, there's a lot to like about this team.

However, much like their men's team, the success of this group is simply dependent on how much improvement these young women go through. The Tar Heels are young enough where they can develop and progress as they age, but that doesn't necessarily give us a good idea of how much improvement we should expect to see from them this year.

17. If Abdi Nur doesn't return, then who is the men's individual national title favorite?

In this scenario, Nur, Mantz, Kioko, Kiptoo and Beadlescomb are gone. Wildschutt, meanwhile, is currently unsure if he will be returning to Florida State or not to use his remaining eligibility.

That likely leaves us with Stanford's Charles Hicks as the national title favorite. He's been too consistent and too good to not be in that conversation and with Nur theoretically out of the picture, I don't feel as convinced about anyone else other than him.

Yes, Nico Young has been phenomenal and could absolutely be considered as the national title favorite. However, some of his national meet performances have shown us that he may be the slightest bit away from winning a national title.

Still, Young is elite and would deserve to be in the national title conversation, as would Ky Robinson and maybe Dylan Jacobs.

18. How will the Minnesota women rebound after losing so many scorers?

The Minnesota women have emerged as a BIG 10 powerhouse of the last few years, earning top national meet finishes as a team and winning conference titles. However, all good things come to an end.

The Golden Gophers only return Anastasia Korzenowski from last year's 7th place national meet team. And although Korzenowski is now talented, expecting this team to be anywhere near where they were in 2021 would be ill advised.

The goal for this Minnesota team in 2022 is to identify their younger, more promising talents and position themselves for another successful run in the future. Luckily, they have a top-tier recruit in Ali Weimer joining this program, but it will be fascinating to see how Coach Hopkins approaches this season and how her team responds to training.

19. Who is the one men's team that could surprise everyone later this fall?

We've already spoke about Montana State, so I can't say them.

Give me Providence. Marcelo Rocha is much better than some people realize, Liam Back is fairly underrated as a support scorer and DJ Principe just transferred into the program. There are a few other youngsters who have shown promise and the Friars actually earned halfway decent finishes at major meets last year.

I'm not saying that the Providence men are going to be a top-25 team in our preseason rankings, but they may have an outside shot of making it to the national meet.

20. Who is the one women's team that could surprise everyone later this fall?

I am SUPER high on the Florida women this fall. They return everyone from a very young 2021 lineup which, in theory, should undergo improvements in 2022 as they get another year older. Parker Valby is a true superstar and on paper, this team has a lot of upside.

Bringing back Gabrielle Wilkinson doesn't hurt and the introduction of high school superstar Angelina Perez gives Florida extra scoring potency that wasn't there for them in 2021.

When you consider that the Gators placed 5th as a team last fall at the South Regional XC Championships, it's hard to think that the Florida women won't be better this year than they were last year.

21. How will the Texas men fare this fall after returning everyone from their top-seven and then losing All-American scorer Yaseen Abdalla?

I would have bet my next born child that the Texas men were going to be a top-10 cross country team this year before Monday. But after seeing All-American Yaseen Abdalla transfer to Tennessee, I'm not sure I still have those same feelings.

The Longhorns still return everyone else from their 2021 national meet lineup, but the scoring potency of Abdalla from the national meet is a tough loss. He would have been really nice to have.

Now, that said, Abdalla wasn't necessarily an All-American candidate throughout most of last fall, so to say that he was Texas' top scorer in 2021 would be misleading. There's also good reason to believe that someone else in this lineup, maybe Haftu Knight, could be an All-American this fall.

I'm not saying that Texas can't be a top-10 team come November, but that task will be much more challenging with Abdalla now gone.

22. What is the ceiling for the Alabama women?

Mercy Chelangat is a superstar, Amaris Tyynismaa (at her best) is a superstar and Flomena Asekol is a much higher All-American returner than some people realize.

On paper, that may be the best top-three in the country depending on how you view certain names from NC State and New Mexico.

However, a classic challenge for the Rolling Tide this fall will be their depth.

Jami Reed returns, and she's a nice piece, but she has struggled quite a bit on the national stage. And with others like Schelp and Patton now gone, trying to find a supporting cast for this Alabama team is not going to be easy.

That said, Alabama doesn't necessarily need a whole lot. They need their top-three to deliver, they need Reed to shake off any national meet woes and they need to find one more reliable fifth runner.

If all of that happens at the national meet, then one has to think that Alabama will be on the podium...right?