The Group Chat: Conference Conversations

Note: The BIG East Championships are still taking place and will not conclude until tomorrow.

Garrett: The men’s mile is completely up in the air right now. The Oregon duo of Charlie Hunter and Cooper Teare each ran 3:55 while Yared Nuguse essentially soloed a 3:55 of his own at the ACC Championships. Those three, along with Mick Stanovsek who ran 3:57 in Boston, are now in national qualifying positions for the mile.

Between Hunter, Teare and Nuguse, you’re looking at a completely different conversation when it comes to predicting the national title in the mile. Will Teare and Hunter pursue the mile individually even though they have the DMR on Friday night? Will Teare attempt the mile/DMR/3k triple? You can ask the same thing for Nuguse who could theoretically run any combination of the mile/DMR/3k.

One of these three is bound to run the mile (Hunter is essentially a guarantee) and if you’re running 3:55, then you have to be put into the national title conversation.

Maura: The men of Oregon have a crazy amount of depth in the mile right now. Charlie Hunter, Cooper Teare, James West and Cole Hocker are all within the top 20, nationally. Hunter and Teare’s 3:55 just put them both in national title contention. Hocker, a true freshman, ran 3:58 and will have to hope for some scratches if he wants to qualify for NCAA's.

The main focus here will be on Teare and Hunter because they have decisions to make regarding individual events. Teare is already in title contention in the 3k and most likely won’t go after the mile/3k/DMR triple. Hunter can do the mile/DMR double and succeed in both. It wouldn't be a stretch to tag Hunter as the national title favorite right now.

Sam: I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. The indoor 800 meters is the most unpredictable event in track and field. This past weekend, we saw Delaware senior Michaela Meyer throw down a HUGE performance in the event at the BU Last Chance meet.

How huge? Meyer ran 2:03.40 to move into the NCAA #4 spot.

How huge? Meyer vaulted herself to almost the top of the national leaderboard despite having never made an NCAA Championship.

How huge? Meyer’s personal best coming into this weekend was 2:07.02.

Unlike many of the women in the field, Meyer comes into the national meet with zero expectations. She has nothing to lose, and as Molly Seidel just proved on Saturday, a woman with nothing to lose is dangerous.

Who knows? Maybe the Blue Hen’s performance was a fluke and she won’t even make finals. However, I imagine that Meyer is full of confidence and lacking fear as she heads to Albuquerque in two weeks.

Garrett: The MPSF meet really doesn’t mean anything. Coaches in that federation likely aren’t getting bonuses for earning a top team finish at the meet (maybe I’m wrong), but they are probably getting bonuses for qualifying more athletes to NCAA’s. If that incentivizes them to travel across the country to earn a national qualifying time, then I don’t see a problem with it.

Is Mick Stanovsek getting that 3:57 national qualifying time if he stays in Seattle to run the mile? Is Allie Schalder running 9:00 in the 3000 meters or is Carley Thomas running 2:02 in the 800 if they run at the MPSF Championships? Do the Oregon men run 3:55, 3:55 and 3:58 in the mile?

Maybe they would have, but I liked their chances in Boston a whole lot more.

Maura: Coaches are trying to get their athletes to qualify for NCAA’s and they are going to take those athletes to the meets that give them the best chance to do so. The MSPF, highlighted by teams such as Colorado, Washington, Oregon and Stanford, clearly has talented distance runners, but many of those top athletes weren't running this past weekend (Klecker, Dressel, Morley, Jones, Orton, etc.).

For the athletes just on the bubble, heading to Boston where professional athletes were racing was a better option than the sometimes slow, tactical races at a conference meet.

Sam: So here’s my issue with it. Yes, the MPSF Championships really have no meaning. Someone should fix that because conference championships bring an incredible team dynamic to the sport and we need more of that as a whole.

More so, if you are Washington or Oregon (the men's milers specifically) couldn't you have just raced each other at the Dempsey and had a pacer? Washington literally hosts three to four huge meets at the Dempsey every season. Each of those meets attract numerous collegiate talents and professional athletes. Weren't those opportunities good enough to hit national qualifying times?

The PAC-12 needs to create an indoor championship meet that encourages these athletes to run fast times and/or compete against other top collegiate talents.

Garrett: Easily Grace Forbes of Rice University and it’s not even close. Don’t get me wrong, Forbes is a really strong, underrated talent who I felt was overlooked at times. But did anyone expect her to run 8:56 for 3000 meters in Boston? That’s unbelievable for a true freshman. Yes, her progression in the event indicated that she was due for a new personal best (running 9:27 then 9:13 and now 8:56), but seeing that kind of drop only five days after running the mile/3000 double at the C-USA Championships is pretty wild.

Maura: Sticking with the women’s 3k, I’ve got to go with Allie Schadler of Washington after she ran 9:00 in the 3000 meters. Schadler didn’t compete at the MPSF Championships, but ran this time at the Boston Last Chance Qualifier. With her 9:00 performance, Schadler moves up to NCAA #11 and will qualify for NCAA’s.

The Washington runner has been on the cusp of a fast 3000 meter performance for a while now and was attempting to run it at the Husky Classic. However, a fall in that race resulted in Schadler running 9:14. A key member on Washington’s DMR, Shadler will have her work cut out for her at NCAA’s if she ends up doubling.

Sam: Since I already mentioned Meyer, I’m going to jump on the Grace Forbes bandwagon here. When I wrote our women’s rankings last week, I was looking through the performance lists and noticed that Forbes had run decent times. Nothing crazy fast, but good enough across a couple of events to earn an Honorable Mention.

But 8:56? Wow.

Garrett blew up the group chat when this happened and I jokingly responded about mentioning her in the Honorable Mentions almost as if I called it. That said, I don’t think ANYONE outside of Rice University saw this coming. With the school ties, it makes me wonder if Forbes will be the next “Becky Wade” to come out of Rice.

Garrett: I actually think that these two women not qualifying in those events solidifies what Dani Jones will run at Nationals. Had Jones qualified for the 3000 meters, then the 5000 meters would have been a very strong option for her considering there was one less superstar in the field. A 5k/3k double would have seemed entirely reasonable.

However, her running the 5000 meters at NCAA’s would mean that the mile and DMR are likely off the table, leaving her to run in only one event. I would be shocked if Jones runs only one event at NCAA’s, so I think this essentially makes her a lock to run the mile/DMR double at the National Championships.

Maura: I was surprised to see that Jones didn’t compete this weekend as a final tune-up for NCAA’s, but she must be confident in her training moving forward. After Jones ran 15:17 for 5k, I was expecting a fast 3k, but that never happened. Without a qualifying time in the 3k and the way the indoor national meet schedule is set up, it would be most logical for Jones to run the mile/DMR double to score points for Colorado. However, she could go all-in for the 5000 meters.

Monson running just enough to win the 5k at BIG 10’s was interesting to see when you consider that she's the reigning indoor 5000 meter champion. The 3k for the women is pretty deep this year with nine of the top 16 women having run under 9:00. Monson will have her work cut out for her in the 15-lap affair.

Sam: Both moves surprised me quite a bit. If you didn’t listen to this week’s Blue Oval Podcast episode, I had considered Monson and Jones to be locks for qualifying in the 5k and 3k, respectively.

The move seems to make a lot more sense for Jones. As Garrett noted, she likely will run the mile and DMR now, setting herself up for a chance to claim that indoor mile national title which has eluded her since her duel with Elle Purrier. Jones has also always been a team player which makes her inclusion on the DMR less shocking.

As for Monson, I’m a bit shocked that she wants to only go for the 3k. Granted, she has run 8:45 (in 2019), but Whittni Orton is the obvious favorite and has already proven to have more closing speed than Monson. I would have maybe considered Monson the favorite in the 5k, so I’m surprised she opted for the shorter event.

Garrett: What were the Washington men doing? I get that Stanovsek was pursuing individual glory en route to a 3:57 mile time, but this group of Washington milers is so deep. Why not put together a relay in Boston to defend their DMR spot to Nationals? The DMR field was clearly fast enough given the performances that we saw from MTSU and Georgetown, so you’d have to think that the Huskies would have been a part of that group.

As for the women’s side, you have to feel for the Texas women. They were in a comfortable position to qualify for Nationals going into this weekend, but have instead been ousted to the NCAA #13 spot.

I don’t think anyone could have predicted that four new DMR’s would earn/maintain a top-12 time nationally this weekend. Tough break for Texas who actually won the BIG 12 title in the distance medley this past weekend.

Maura: I was really hoping that NAU would sneak into NCAA’s on the men’s side after running an altitude-converted 9:34 at the BIG Sky Championships, but they are now on the outside looking in, sitting at NCAA #14 spot.

A team that many people may not pay attention to is Middle Tennessee State. Kigen Chemadi and Jacob Choge both have qualifying times in the 5k, but they will need to decide what they want to do. Given the limited amount of time between the 5k and DMR at the national meet, the MTSU duo will likely have to go all-in on the 5000 meters or all-in on the DMR. A double would be possible, but it probably wouldn't be a very effective double.

For the women, Garrett hit it spot-on when he said that four teams earning/maintaining NCAA qualifying spots couldn’t have been predicted. We knew that Oregon was capable of running a national qualifying time and we knew that New Mexico was a possible NCAA qualifying team with Weini Kelati on the anchor. Michigan and Michigan State duking it out at BIG 10’s usually happens, but to see them both run that fast was a surprise.

There always has to be one team slotted at the NCAA #13 spot and it just happens to be the Texas Longhorns this year.

Sam: On the women’s side, I’m not at all surprised to see Oregon plus the BIG 10 schools go for it. I mentioned Oregon on the podcast as a top-12 candidate given that they are a team that historically makes it to Nationals in the DMR. Michigan State and Michigan were able to capitalize on a common goal in the BIG 10 DMR race and made the pace fast enough to move both relays into qualifying position.

As for the men, Middle Tennessee State is interesting because, like Maura noted, Chemadi and Choge are both only qualified for Nationals in the 5k. I don’t see a favorable scenario where they run both the 5k and the DMR.

As for who I thought would have chased a national qualifying time, I have to go with the Washington men. Why didn’t they? Who really knows.

Sam Tanner went to chase an Olympic standard (which he missed) and Stanovsek went after a fast mile (which he got). I think they would have done better at NCAA's in the DMR than any Washington runner will do individually, but they had a different idea.

Garrett: Probably not, mainly because the fields aren’t deep enough to establish a hot pace and the tactics of championship racing will always take precedence. I think the men’s mile could end up being pretty quick, especially as a handful of men pursue a sub-four mile result this weekend. Still, I don’t think we’re going to see anything in the distance events that gets someone to NCAA’s.

Maura: Doubtful. Garrett summarizes this well. Some Georgetown men and Providence women might shake things up in the mile, 3000 or 5000, but outside of those two teams, I don’t expect much to change for NCAA’s.

Sam: I’m clearly late to the party, but Maura and Garrett already hit this on the head.

Garrett: How about Billy McDevitt of Penn State? In an 800 meter field where the heavy favorite was Cooper Williams, McDevitt came out of nowhere, put himself in excellent position on the final lap and kicked away from the field en route to a time of 1:48.78. That time now places him at NCAA #18 in the 800 meters and could actually get him into Nationals assuming that James West scratches and maybe a DMR leg scratches (possibly from Iowa State?).

With Domenic Perretta redshirting this winter, McDevitt has stepped up as the veteran leader of this team and has consistently produced great results in the 800 meters, the 1000 meters and the mile. He was due for a performance like this.

Maura: As Sam already mentioned, Delaware’s Michaela Meyer came out of nowhere and dropped a 2:03 at Boston’s Last Chance Qualifier meet. This was a four second PR for Meyer and it catapulted up to the NCAA #4 spot. The Delaware senior hadn’t produced any eye-catching performances prior to this weekend and was only coming off of a 2:07 result from two weeks earlier.

It will be interesting to see how Meyer competes at NCAA’s because she doesn’t have any experience racing on the national stage.

Sam: Maudie Skyring has been running well since cross country season, but might have put herself onto the national stage with her run at ACC's. The Florida State junior finished runner-up to Sarah Edwards of Virginia Tech in a time of 4:37.26, moving into the NCAA #19 position for the mile.

Skyring had only run under 4:40 once in her career prior to this past weekend and came into 2020 with a personal best of 4:40.17. While that jump does not seem like much, that personal best of 4:40.17 from 2019 was four seconds faster than her next-best mark, indicating that it was a clear outlier performance at the time.

It’s good to see Skyring performing this well on a consistent basis. It's exciting to think about what she might be able to do if a couple of women scratch out of the mile for NCAA's.