South Region Preview (Men)

*Regional predictions from TSR writers are not connected to our current Kolas projections*

Before we start, grab a hat.

Put four slips of paper numbered one through four in the hat.

Pull one out.

Congratulations! You just picked the team who will finish 2nd in the South Region.

Between Tennessee, Belmont, Florida State, and North Florida, the second automatic qualifying spot for Nationals is a crapshoot. None of these teams have raced each other this year, so it is especially hard to compare them because there is no point of reference to use. Picking a number out of a hat honestly might be the best way to predict a winner. That said, you are likely reading this article for my opinion, so we will dive in and try to separate these teams the best we can.

In addition, these four squads could alter the Kolas points pretty dramatically as they all could give out points to a variety of different teams. A quick look at one team who is affected by the possible scoring flux is addressed in Part One of our TSR Mailbag. We won’t know the full ramifications until after the regional championships are complete, but the South region could decide the last few at-large spots.

First of all, Ole Miss is winning. Bet your house, your life savings, and your children’s college fund. I have never been so sure of anything in my life. They may not race all-out at regionals as they are pretty much assured a spot to Nationals and will want to run their best when it matters. The only effect of this will be giving some individuals a chance of finishing higher. I wrote about how well Ole Miss’ young squad ran last week, and I think that their postseason success will continue by winning easily and competing for a top 15 spot at NCAA's.

Now to determine the runner-up. Let’s start with the favorite, Tennessee.

TennesseeThe Volunteers have had a solid season all year. Nothing spectacular, but nothing disappointing. Just solid and consistent.

Each of the four teams has a major strength that will likely be the reason why they make it to Nationals. Tennessee’s strength? Depth. The team goes almost nine deep when it comes to guys who could finish in their top five. They also have depth at the top of their roster. Zach Long has been their number one for the entire year (with the exception of SEC's) and has developed into a proven front-runner. If the Vols don’t qualify for Nationals, then Long is one of the favorites to take an individual spot for Nationals. The Tennessee star has been a consistent low-stick for his team, but he has had help plenty of help from Karl Thiessen and Alex Crigger.

Thiessen has had an outstanding freshman year, running well at Nuttycombe and finishing posting a strong finish at SEC’s by placing 16th. Crigger has been right behind Thiessen all year, but seems to be hitting his stride at the perfect time after placing 15th at SEC's less than two weeks ago.

Behind these three have been Wesley Robinson, Andre Hillsman, Brad Swiney, Georde Goodwin, and Max Barbour. Robinson has had a slow start to his 2018 season, but we shouldn't forget that he was the Volunteers second scorer last year. A breakout performance that sees him return to his 2017 form could swing the race in favor of Tennessee.

Hillsman has run well over the last two weekends of competition at the Arturo Barrios Invitational and SEC’s where he provided a much needed top four finish for the team.

Goodwin, Swiney, and Barbour all lurk as potential scorers who could save the team if someone has an off day. It will be tough for Coach Alford to decide on a top seven, but rest assured that whoever she picks has a good chance of helping the Vols return to Nationals.

Tennessee, if they make it to Nationals, will give out many Kolas points. Kentucky, Ole Miss, and Arkansas will all receive points from SEC’s. Tennessee would also give out points to many teams from their performance at Nuttycombe. Most notably, Michigan, Michigan State, NC State, Indiana, and Washington State who could all desperately use one extra point in their attempt to qualify for an at-large bid.

*WARNING! DISCLAIMER: I am on the Belmont Cross Country team*

Belmont, like Tennessee, has been a consistent squad this year. After their two opening meets, the Bruins came in 3rd at the Louisville Classic behind D3 powerhouse North Central and Kentucky. They followed that up with a decent race at Pre-Nats where they finished 17th in the Cardinal race. Most recently, the team finished 2nd at the Ohio Valley Conference Championships to Eastern Kentucky.

This team heavily relies on their top five and are led by the McLeod brothers who are strong low-sticks. Freshman Jacob McLeod has had an immediate impact on this program, finishing 28th at Pre-Nats and runner-up to EKU’s James Sugira at OVC's.

Kaleb McLeod is coming off of his best race of the year where he finished 5th at OVC's, right behind EKU’s David Corrales. Matt Edwards, Aidan Thompson, and Declan McManus provide a solid three through five. The strength of this team is their low-sticks and the consistency of their backend scorers.

If Belmont makes Nationals, then they would give points to NC State, Michigan, Utah State, Southern Utah, and Furman. Like Tennessee, they could really help some teams earn a spot at Nationals. In Part One of the TSR Mailbag, Garrett Zatlin outlined how Gonzaga’s new favorite team is Belmont because of the Kolas points implications.

I’m not sure what to think about the Seminoles. They have only run in two competitive meets so far this year. Their first legitimate challenge was at Notre Dame for the Joe Paine Invitational where they finished in 7th behind Weber State and Dayton. The second was at ACC’s where they again finished behind some very strong programs to come in 7th, right behind Virginia Tech and ahead of Duke.

The addition of Toby Hardwick to the squad gives the 'Noles more depth at the front and allows them to be legitimate regional contenders. Hardwick has made an immediate impact, placing 28th at ACC's and finishing as FSU’s number two scorer.

Caleb Porttorff has been a consistent low-stick for the Seminoles and has a good chance at making it to Nationals as an individual. Steven Cross (all-region as a freshman), had a tough sophomore year, but has rebounded nicely in 2018 as a consistent top three finisher for the team.

Behind Cross is Istvan Szogi who DNF’d at ACC’s, but has been a solid runner for the Seminoles this year, running 25:07 at Notre Dame and 24:56 later at UAB. A healthy Szogi could elevate the team into qualifying contention.

Competing for the fifth spot are Tyson Murray and Paul Stafford who have consistently finished right behind Szogi. While Florida State might not have the same depth or low-sticks as some of these other programs, they do have one big advantage...their home course.

As a running community, we don’t always make a big deal out of home-field advantage, but during championship season, having extra knowledge about the course could be the one small advantage that pushes your team over the top. With a team battle so tight, the home course knowledge could be Florida State’s way to Nationals.

Florida State will not give out as many Kolas points as Belmont and Tennessee. From ACC’s they will hand out points to NC State and Virginia among others and from Joe Piane they will give Furman and Notre Dame a point each.
 

Probably one of the most underrated teams in the country, the Osprey’s are my dark horse pick to qualify for Nationals. North Florida has flown under the radar in large part to their schedule. They have only raced three times this season and one of those races was their own 5k season opener. Their other two races were at Paul Short and at the ASUN Conference Championships. Because of that, it is hard to have a good gauge of the team. At Paul Short they came in 5th, losing only to Utah State, Virginia Tech, Army, and Guelph. They were able to finish ahead of Wake Forest. At ASUN’s the team packed up well and won convincingly over an underrated Liberty squad.

Nick Morken has traditionally led the team and was the team’s top finisher at the South regional last year, placing 22nd. He led the team at Paul Short, finishing a respectable 7th overall and followed that up with a 6th place finish at ASUN's.

While Morken is a solid top guy, the strength of the team is their pack. Three North Florida runners finished ahead of Morken at ASUN's and their fifth guy finished 13 seconds behind Morken. Noah Perkins ran a spectacular race at last weekend, finishing runner-up, but has been a solid top three runner his entire Osprey career.

The most impressive part about North Florida’s latest performance was how well their traditional three through five performed. Nathan Jubran, Rob Leverone, and Christian Conder all ran wonderfully. Jubran and Leverone came in 3rd and 4th place right behind Perkins, and Conder came in 10th. If Morken has a stronger performance AND the rest of the pack follow him closely, then North Florida could finish with five people between 15th and 30th.

North Florida is the only team in contention that would not give out many Kolas points. They would only give out one point to Utah State, Virginia Tech, and Army. The other teams in the country looking for extra Kolas points will be rooting for Tennessee, Belmont, or Florida State to snag the second spot.

Team

1. Ole Miss

2. Tennessee

3. North Florida

4. Belmont

5. Florida State

6. Georgia Tech

7. Alabama

8. Florida A&M

9. ETSU

10. Florida

11. Georgia

12. Tennessee Tech

13. Lipscomb

14. Samford

15. Auburn

I think that Ole Miss will win handily, but won’t hit the gas too hard. With that said, they will still probably score about 40 points with six people in the top 15.

Between their combination of front-runners and depth, Tennessee will earn a close 2nd place finish. I believe Zach Long will return to top form and give the Volunteers a low-stick with Thiessen and Crigger filling in the top 20. Although I see Tennessee finishing 2nd, I don’t think they will go under 100 points as it will be a tight race with the other challengers.

Right on Tennessee’s heels will be the surprising North Florida Ospreys. I really believe that their pack will put them in contention until the very end. If all goes well, then this team could have all five of their guys in the 20’s which should give them a chance if Tennessee slips up.

Right behind them will be Belmont. I believe that Jacob Mcleod will be in position for an individual qualifying spot with brother Kaleb not far behind. For the Bruins, the race will come down to the gap between Kaleb and the rest of the team. If Edwards, Thompson, and McManus can stay within shouting distance of Kaleb and finish in the top 30, then this team will be right there. I just trust the pack of North Florida a little bit more.

Lastly, I believe the home team of Florida State just won’t get enough from their four and five to compete with the rest of these teams. The home course could help them out, but I don’t know if it’ll be enough to hold off the strong and consistent teams ahead of them.

The individual race should be competitive with plenty of guys competing for individual qualifying spots as no one other than Ole Miss is guaranteed a spot to Nationals. Look for Alfred Chelanga from Alabama to take the win. Right behind him will be ETSU’s Ben Varghese who has put together a stellar season. He just finished runner-up to Furman’s Aaron Templeton at the Southern Conference Championships.

After those two, look for the Ole Miss trio of Waleed Suliman, Farah Abdulkarim, and Cade Bethmann to be around the top five. Others competing for top 10 spots will be Zach Long, Jacob Mcleod, Caleb Porttoff, and Auburn’s Silas Kipngetich. I expect the race to not go off too hot as Ole Miss tries to keep the pace under control. There aren't many front-runners, so expect there to be a big pack for at least the first few kilometers.

It should be a hotly contested in the last mile as one point could very well be the difference in running at Nationals or watching it from your couch.

Individual

1. Alfred Chelanga (Alabama)

2. Ben Varghese (ETSU)

3. Waleed Suliman (Ole Miss)

4. Zach Long (Tennessee)

5. Jacob Mcleod (Belmont)

6. Farah Abdulkarim (Ole Miss)

7. Caleb Porttoff (FSU)

8. Cade Bethmann (Ole Miss)

9. Mark Robertson (Ole Miss)

10. Silas Kipngetich (Auburn)

11. Mario Garcia Romo (Ole Miss)

12. Michael Coccia (Ole Miss)

13. Kaleb Mcleod (Belmont)

14. Toby Hardwick (FSU)

15. Alex Crigger (Tennessee)

16. Karl Thiessen (Tennessee)

17. Nick Morken (North Florida)

18. Steven Cross (FSU)

19. David Too (Florida A&M)

20. Noah Perkins (North Florida)