Five Things to Watch: 2022 ACC Outdoor Championships

The ACC is such a fascinating conference. Maybe that's because I attended an ACC school. However, more likely, it's because almost every program in the conference has at least one or two competitive names in the middle or long distance events...to a varying degree.

This year's outdoor conference meet won't be any less entertaining than it has been in the past and there are plenty of headlines to keep an eye on for this weekend.

Here are five things to watch over the next few days in Durham, North Carolina.

NOTE: All highlighted matchups assume that the respective athletes will qualify out of the preliminary round and into the finals.

Wake Forest's Thomas Vanoppen came to Winston-Salem with a top-tier resume, specifically in the 1500 meters, owning a personal best of 3:37 in the event. After a respectable, but somewhat quiet, indoor track season, the Demon Deacons star has been flat-out incredible in the metric mile this spring.

Vanoppen has faced two highly competitive 1500 meter fields this season and has both of them, running 3:38 in his first effort and then 3:40 in his second effort.

And in each of those occasions, Vanoppen did something that not many men can boast.

He beat Nick Dahl...twice.

Dahl has evolved into a standout miler in his own right, becoming just as established at the distance as Vanhoppen. The Duke ace is a very smart positional runner and he often does well with semi-aggressive paces.

And sure enough, his only two 1500 meter losses to this spring have both come to Vanoppen.

On the national stage, someone like Dahl may be the somewhat safer pick, but it's getting harder and harder to ignore Vanhoppen. He's a sneaky-strong finisher and he's incredibly difficult to shake off. He has an elite PR and he has taken down an upper-echelon name more than once this season.

What else is he supposed to do?

But while Vanoppen does have the edge on Dahl this spring, it's important to remember that the Wake Forest runner actually finished 3rd in the mile at the ACC Indoor Championships a few months ago.

In that race, Dahl beat Vanoppen and won the conference title. Not only that, but Dahl also beat Vanoppen in the mile at the Camel City Elite meet earlier that season.

In basketball terms, this series is tied at 2-2.

In a setting that could be more tactical, Dahl may be the choice to win. Still, it feels a little insulting to pick Dahl after Vanoppen has already beat him twice this spring.

Other key contenders in this race include North Carolina's Jesse Hunt, Virginia's Wes Porter and Wake Forest's Zach Facioni.

Hunt is a veteran who probably has some of the better middle distance speed in this field. He has run under 3:40 multiple times in his career and generally speaking, always finds a way to be put his name in these types of conversations.

I admittedly don't know if I've seen enough to say that Hunt will contend with (or defeat) Dahl or Vanoppen. Even so, I think he's closer to that top tier than the next-best tier.

However, someone who is already in that upper-echelon group is Porter, a guy who has been absolutely terrific this season. The UVA star ran 3:39 earlier this season to win the Raleigh Relay. He also ran 13:36 for 5000 meters at the Virginia Challenge and just earned a mile win the other weekend in a time of 3:58.

Porter has tons of momentum right now, arguably just as much as Vanoppen, and he has a handful of really promising wins on his resume. There is a very real possibility that the UVA star pulls off the title victory this weekend.

He won't necessarily be favored to do so, but it wouldn't be an upset if he did, either.

As for Facioni, this is someone who has run 3:39 for 1500 meters and, at his peak, can be a dominant name in the ACC. The problem, however, is that we really don't have a lot to analyze when looking at Facioni.

 The Wake Forest star ran a solid, but modest, mark of 3:44 at the Duke Invitational earlier this season, but then bounced back and ran 13:37 for 5000 meters at the Virginia Challenge.

With no indoor track results to review, it's hard to know which version of Facioni will be getting this weekend. He's theoretically good enough to win this race or take down a big name, but his performance at the Duke Invitational did leave me wanting more.

As for a few other names, I like men such as Ka'eo Kruse (Virginia), Gavin Gaynor (NC State), Rory Cavan (Duke), Sam Field (Florida State), Luke Tewalt (Wake Forest) or Conor Murphy (Virginia).

One of those names is either going to run under 3:40 (if the pace allows for it) or they'll surprise us with great tactical execution and sneak into a top-three or top-four spot.

Kruse, Gaynor and Tewalt would probably be my best guesses from that group.

Two years ago, none of these headline names were in the NCAA.

Now they're amongst the best distance talents that country has to offer.

NC State's Katelyn Tuohy and Virginia's Mia Barnett, two superstar underclassmen, are both set to toe the line for the women's 1500 meters at the ACC Championships this weekend.

Tuohy is the debatable favorite in this race. She has run 4:12 for 1500 meters earlier this season, has split 4:09 on a 4x1500 meter relay and has dominated the longer distance events, running 15:14 for 5000 meters earlier this season.

The NC State phenom has more speed than some people realize, but at the end of the day, that might not really matter. Tuohy may just be too darn good to defeat...and I'm not sure there's a whole lot more to say other than that.

However, if anyone is going to beat Tuohy in this race, then it's going to be Barnett who has quite the resume despite her freshman status.

The UVA superstar has rapidly ascended up the national ranks, flexing poise and raw ability that has allowed her to contend with some of the best women in the NCAA. She has run 4:11 this season, a mark that pairs well with her 4:34 mile PR from the winter months.

However, we should note that Tuohy did convincingly defeat Barnett at the Raleigh Relays in the 1500 meters back in March.

Barnett has undoubtedly improved since then and she is absolutely more of a pure miler than Tuohy is. Still, Barnett will need the race of her life to take down the NC State juggernaut this weekend.

But lost in all of this craziness is North Carolina's Taryn Parks, a fellow sophomore who was excellent during the indoor track season. The Tar Heel rookie ran 2:46 for 1000 meters this past winter and recorded a 4:36 mile PR en route to an ACC title in the mile.

Parks absolutely has to be part of this conversation, but it is admittedly tough to put her ahead of Tuohy and Barnett. She hasn't run quite as fast as them, especially not this spring, and the other two have simply been leaps and bounds better.

Parks, after all, has only run 4:23 for 1500 meters this spring.

At the same time, this is someone who peaked beautifully for the postseason during the winter, running 4:37 in the mile prelims and then 4:36 mile finals at the ACC Indoor Championships next year. In theory, the same thing could happen again this weekend.

But just because there are a slew of promising youngsters headlining this field doesn't mean that there aren't established veterans who can break up that group.

I am, of course, hinting at Florida State's Maudie Skyring.

During most years, Skyring would be the clear favorite to win this race. After all, she has run 4:09 for 1500 meters, is a wildly experienced miler and was just 0.21 seconds off from the ACC title in this event last year.

However, Skyring dealt with an injury during the indoor track season and had to take time off from competition. She still ran a 4:36 mile during the indoor track season and has built up to a 4:18 seasonal best. But will her presumed postseason peak allow her to compete at the top-end of this field?

Skyring is progressing nicely and I do think that she is continuing to get better as the season inches towards the deeper parts of the postseason. However, she would need a big leap in order to truly contend with Tuohy and/or Barnett.

As for a few other names, NC State's Nevada Mareno has run 4:15 this spring while teammates Savannah Shaw and Anna Vess have each run 4:17. I like all three of those women and I think they can sometimes be a bit underrated.

Mareno, if she's firing on all cylinders, could be a legitimate factor in this race.

The women's 10k has A LOT going on. There are numerous top-level stars in this field, some better suited for the 10k than others.

Let's just address the entire NC State contingent. The Wolfpack women have Kelsey Chmiel, Dominique Clairmonte, Hannah Steelman, Mariah Howlett, Heather Holt and Julia Zachgo all entered in this race. In theory, they give NC State a realistic opportunity to take four or five of the top-eight scoring spots.

Chmiel is one of the clear favorites in this race...but not the lone favorite. She is a true aerobic beast who thrives in the longer distances. The further she gets to run, the better she is.

With a personal best of 32:45 in this event and an All-American honor at this distance, it would be easy to assume that she would be the run-away from title favorite in this race.

However, Chmiel has not yet raced this season -- at all.

That's a bit odd, and we don't know what her status is. Yet, even then, it seems hard to not pick her in this race.

Arguably another legitimate title favorite is teammate Dominique Clairmonte who has shown us plenty of exciting promise as of late. Like Chmiel, the 10k distance also favors Clairmonte who has run as fast as 32:50.

Clairmonte also placed 3rd in this race last year, but she has been fairly quiet since the cross country season, recording no results up until a few weeks ago.

But Clairmonte's recent 15:42 mark for 5000 meters at the Penn Relays is wildly encouraging. She might be hitting her stride right on time and peaking perfectly. The NC State veteran has tons of experience and it seems like she's still waiting for her "let me show you how good I really am" race.

We can't talk about NC State and not talk about Hannah Steelman, the distance star who has been a key name for the Wolfpack since transferring into the program. She's been rebounding from an injury that she sustained at the tail-end of the cross country season, but her comeback campaign has been promising.

Steelman has run 15:54 (5k) twice this season, which is solid consistency given how much time she missed. The Wolfpack ace is certainly capable of doing more, but she'll have an opportunity to flex her fitness in the 10k on Thursday night, an event that she has never contested before.

I like this decision from Coach Henes and from Steelman. Attempting the 10k certainly couldn't hurt and any gains/improvements made in the 5k would likely be marginal. It just feels like there's more to gain in this race.

The only question is...what should we expect from Steelman?

Losing a big base due to injury would theoretically make this race a challenge, but given how strong of a long distance talent Steelman has become, it's actually a bit surprising that she hasn't attempted this event sooner.

As for the rest of the NC State women, Howlett, Zachgo and Holt are all very good and underappreciated distance talents.

Howlett is probably the main name to watch from that group. The 10k has the potential to be her best event after running 33:40 in her lone attempt last year. She has made a significant jump in her fitness this spring, running two personal bests in different events in her last two races.

On paper, she's due for a big result.

Of course, NC State isn't necessarily expected to sweep the top scoring spots entirely. That's mainly because Florida State's Lauren Ryan is in this field.

Ryan ran 8:47 for 3000 meters this past winter and has run as fast as 15:22 for 5000 meters during her time in Australia. And you know what else she ran in Australia? A mark of 32:16, a time that would be the fastest 10k performance in the nation this spring by 18 seconds.

The Seminole superstar has never run a 10k collegiately, but in her two attempts at the distance, she has gone under 33:00 both times...that might spell trouble for the NC State women.

Is Ryan in the same shape as her 32:16 mark from January of last year? It's tough to say, but even if she's not, she might still be good enough to beat the Chmiel, Steelman and Clairmonte trio. Ryan's recent results, specifically her 15:30 mark for 5000 meters, are still significantly better than anything these NC State entrants have run this spring.

Admittedly, it's hard to find an argument against Ryan as an ACC 10k title favorite.

Other names such as Michaela Reinhart (Duke), Jacqueline Gaughan (Notre Dame) and Katie Rose Blachowitz (Notre Dame) could absolutely break up that NC State contingent and potentially hang onto a quick pace.

Reinhart is an established long distance talent (who narrowly missed national qualification last year). Gaughan qualified for the national meet in the 10k in 2019. Blachowitz qualified for the national meet in the 10k in 2021.

Admittedly, Blachowitz and Gaughan have been a bit on the quieter side this spring, leaving us to question how well they'll perform in this kind of field. Even so, they have both run well at their past conference and regional meets, and that could be the case once more in 2022.

Let's first talk about Yared Nuguse. As first reported by Jonathan Gault of LetsRun, and later confirmed by The Stride Report, the results from the Sound Running 1500 meter race last weekend aren't expected to count towards NCAA qualification.

This is because the number of collegiate events offered at the Sound Running meet didn't satisfy NCAA minimum requirements, something that the Notre Dame coaching staff acknowledged prior to the meet happening.

In the final 100 meters of Yared Nuguse's 1500 meter race, the Irish superstar strained his hamstring, causing him to finish a bit further back than expected.

With the 1500 meter prelims happening on Thursday night, the Fighting Irish coaching staff didn't want to rush Nuguse back into racing. So instead, they have him tentatively entered in the 5000 meters on Saturday, giving Nuguse the most rest and recovery possible.

Will he actually race in this 5k field? That's something that we'll ultimately figure out, but assuming that the original NCAA ruling holds up, Nuguse is not expected be qualified for the regional meet in the 1500 meters this spring...which is a shocker.

Outside of a potential Nuguse appearance, we could see an indoor 3k rematch between Notre Dame's Dylan Jacobs and Florida State's Adriaan Wildschutt. In their last conference battle, Jacobs got the better of Wildschutt with stronger tactics, but this race now moves up closer to Wildschutt's ideal domain.

Between these two, it's tough to know what to expect in this race. Jacobs is a bit more tactically refined, but Seminole fans will point to the indoor national meet 5k where Wildschutt beat Jacobs.

Admittedly, I think a conference meet is much more different than a national meet. For that reason, I like Jacobs as the favorite in this race. His speed is a bit more proven and tactically, he has a better understanding of how to employ certain race strategies.

Still, if this pace gets honest, then Wildschutt will have a realistic chance to outrun Jacobs. And as I already mentioned, the 5k favors Wildschutt more than that ACC indoor 3k did.

But just because Wildschutt and Jacobs are the favorites doesn't mean that they are completely immune to the rest of this field. In my mind, there are seven (yes, seven) names who could potentially keep things interesting at the front of this race

They are Alex Ostberg (North Carolina), Aaron Las Heras (Wake Forest), Zach Facioni (Wake Forest), Ian Shanklin (NC State), Andrew Alexander (Notre Dame), Josh Methner (Notre Dame) and Matthew Carmody (Notre Dame).

Ostberg is a proven veteran. He's always in the mix, has sub-four mile speed, seems to be running well this year and got a 5k win in a time of 13:35 against a very talented field at the Virginia Challenge. Generally speaking, there's not anything to dislike about him.

Las Heras had a phenomenal start to the season, putting together a 3:41/28:13 weekend double (1500/10k) at the Raleigh Relays, getting a statement 10k win in the process. However, his most recent 1500 meter result of 3:46 left us wanting more.

Facioni, who we've mentioned before in this preview, has run well this season. However, he'll need to channel his peak fitness and his all-time best performances if he's going to truly contend with Wildschutt and Jacobs in this race. Still, with a 13:30 personal best, that might be doable.

Shanklin is arguably one of the most experienced runners in this field. He has run 13:23 for 5000 meters before and has been able to be competitive with top-tier names before. However, that's not always a guarantee to happen with this NC State veteran.

As for Alexander, Methner and Carmody, these guys are just flat-out fit enough to hang with something honest and fast. Methner and Carmody were outstanding this past winter, going 1-2 in this event at the ACC Indoor Championships. Alexander, meanwhile, is having the best spring season of this trio.

You could certainly argue in favor of names like Parker Wolfe (North Carolina), Yasin Sado (Virginia), Nathan Henderson (Syracuse), Joe Dragon (Syracuse), Jack Aho (North Carolina), Joaquin Martinez De Pinillos (Wake Forest), Wes Porter (Virginia), John Tatter (North Carolina), Antonio Lopez Segura (Virginia Tech), CJ Ambrosio (Duke) and Luke Tewalt (Wake Forest).

All of those men have good reasons to put them in your predictions this weekend.

Even so, most of those names are either too young/inexperienced, don't boast enough proven firepower, don't specialize in the longer distances or are too inconsistent.

And yet, at the same time, many of their pros noticeably outweigh their cons.

If you are tired of me talking about the NC State women, then you're not going to love this section. Just like the 10k, the Wolfpack have loaded up this 5k field in attempt to drown their competition with overwhelming talent.

Between Katelyn Tuohy, Samantha Bush and Savannah Shaw, the NC State women have three women entered in this race who have run 15:45 or faster throughout their careers. If you include Gionna Quarzo, then the Wolfpack women have four women with personal bests under 16:00.

That number, however, could grow larger depending on how teammates Jenna Schulz and Marlee Starliper perform on Saturday night.

Let's just get this part out of the way before I get to the rest of our analysis: Barring a monumental collapse, Katelyn Tuohy is going to win this race.

We can try to make arguments in favor other women, but Fegans or Denner would need to have the best race of their lives (by a large margin) while Tuohy would need to have one of the worst races of her career.

So yeah, sure, it's possible that someone upsets Tuohy, but that would be like UMBC upsetting Virginia in the 2018 March Madness Tournament.

If this race turns tactical, women like Shaw and Bush could certainly play a role thanks to their promising mile/1500 meter speed. I also think that Bush is just flat-out good enough to compete with the other women not named Tuohy in this field. I feel like she could go under 15:40 if the pace is favorable.

Georgia Tech's Nicole Fegans, who is the defending ACC champion in the 10k, isn't running that event in 2022 which is a bit of a surprise. However, I suppose that decision makes sense given that she needs to theoretically run two 10k races at the regional meet and national meets in a few weeks time.

Adding another competitive 10k race just two weeks before that would be a challenge.

Fegans has been outstanding this season, running 33:00 at the Raleigh Relays to earn a clutch overall win. She's also coming off of an indoor track season where she earned nationally competitive marks in everything from the 1k to the mile to the 3k.

With a personal best of 15:37 and a recent runner-up 5k effort at the Penn Relays where she ran 15:41, Fegans seems like one of the safest picks in this field. She is just as versatile as any other entrant and her consistency is really hard to ignore. She has earned key finishes over top talents and generally speaking, is pretty reliable.

I don't want to say that she's a lock for the runner-up spot, but it would be hard to pick against her.

The other veteran who needs to be considered in this race is Notre Dame's Maddy Denner. She has run 15:27 for 5000 meters and has recently run a 10k personal best of 33:27.

However, for the most part, she's a complete enigma.

I never know what to expect from Denner. I've explained this stance before, but the ultimate summary is that Denner is simply inconsistent. It's really hard to anticipate how she's going to perform.

However, if she's at her absolute best, then she is a wildly difficult name to take down. If that happens, then I'm still picking Tuohy to win, but it won't necessarily be a runaway victory.

And yet, I'm not even sure if Denner is the most dangerous Notre Dame entrant in this field. That's because Fighting Irish star Olivia Markezich is also in this race. She has run an incredible steeplechase time of 9:42 before and has a history being an excellent mile/3k runner. In cross country, she's exceptional.

All of those factors are reasons why the 5k could be a prime spot for Markezich who has never actually contested the event (to our surprise).

Even so, her outdoor track season, while far from bad, hasn't quite been at the same level as her previous all-time bests. She's run 4:15 for 1500 meters and 10:00 in the steeplechase, both this spring, but it feels like she's still capable of more.

And maybe in a field as strong as this, we'll see that full potential come out on Saturday.

As we scroll through the rest of this list, there are a handful of women who could mix it up within the top-eight. Amanda Beach (Florida State), Michaela Reinhart (Duke), Lauren White (Boston College), Jacqueline Gaughan (Notre Dame), Mackenna Curtis-Collins (Wake Forest), Margot Appleton (Virginia), Mia Barnett (Virginia) and Lauren Bailey (Notre Dame) all have the potential to be scorers and/or potentially dip under 16:00 in this race.

Keep an eye on Margot Appleton. We saw during the indoor track season (via relays) that she has the potential to be a nationally competitive name. With a history of thriving in the longer distances, this 5k race could be her true coming out party.