First Thoughts: Clinger & Essayi Stun, Nielsen Narrowly Misses 1k Record & Rose Earns NCAA 800m Lead

I imagine that this is going to be a long one.

Due to the massive number of big-time performances from this past weekend, some of the analysis for the below headlines won't be as long or as drawn out as they usually are.

But don't worry, there's still plenty to talk about!

Here we go...

When I wrote for MileSplit, I handled their recruiting coverage for roughly two-ish years.

During that time, Michaela Rose was the nation's top-ranked recruit (by me, essentially). And when she committed to LSU, I remember me and my editor, Cory Mull, debating which event(s) she would contest at the collegiate level.

He said the 400 meters and the 400 meter hurdles. I said the 800 meters.

Update: I was right (but let's ignore the other 99 times when I was wrong).

During her freshman year, Rose gave us every indication that she could be a star talent in the half-mile distance. She ran 2:02 for 800 meters last spring and was very competitive at the SEC Outdoor Championships in a wildly loaded field.

Sure, Rose still had a few learning moments as a rookie, but the talent was very clearly there for her to be special. And sure enough, we saw that this past weekend.

The Tiger sophomore, who was entered in the fifth heat and NOT the fastest heat of the 800 meters at the Razorback Invitational, earned a jaw-dropping time of 2:01. She won her heat by a little under five seconds and ended up running faster than anyone in the top section.

Stanford's Roisin Willis won the hot heat in a time of 2:03 and was closely followed by Florida's Imogen Barrett who also ran 2:03. Gabija Galvydyte, who was the favorite in my eyes to win this race, faded to 3rd place in her heat with a time of 2:04.

Through the first lap, you could immediately tell that Rose was trying to make a statement. The race was never remotely close and it essentially turned into a time trial for the LSU star.

Without having to deal with any of the sporadic pacing and gaps that we saw in the final section, Rose probably had a little bit of an advantage from a time perspective depending on how you look at it.

Would I have liked her to be in the fast heat? Yes, definitely, but that's hardly her fault. Still, it would have given us a better idea of how she responds to nationally competitive fields on the indoor oval and how she approaches uniquely paced races like we saw in heat six.

As for everyone else, I loved the "I don't care that I'm a freshman" mentality that we saw from Willis. She was the only one who went out with the pacer and she was just barely strong enough to fend of Barrett who looked exceptionally strong in the final straightaway.

This was probably a learning moment for Willis in terms of execution, but running 2:03 and winning her heat in that kind of race was impressive.

Galvydyte simply had an "off" day. I was actually convinced that she would win this race. But with Willis and the pacer darting straight to the front and the rest of the pack staying back for a bit, the Oklahoma State star just didn't seem to respond well to what looked like an unconventional race.

I imagine that this was just a fluke and that she'll be fine moving forward.

Time and time again, I continue to doubt Texas middle distance runner, Valery Tobias.

And time and time again, she continues to make me look silly.

The Longhorn star was quietly consistent throughout the winter and spring months of 2022. She consistently got better, ran fast times and always peaked on the national stage. She wasn't necessarily a national title contender, but the Texas runner effectively became an All-American lock over 800 meters.

At Boston University, we saw Tobias toe the line for the fastest heat of the women's 800 meters, a field which featured numerous pro athletes. And although she did fade to last place in that heat, her 2:02 mark is a great step in the right direction.

Tobias has run 2:02 before -- she ran that mark at the tail-end of last spring (twice). But to now translate that fitness to the indoor oval and just miss her overall PR by 0.09 seconds has me feeling very encouraged about this BIG 12 standout.

With the women's 800 meter field looking incredibly top-heavy (and increasingly more deep), Tobias' display of improved fitness felt like a necessity if she was going to remain as a top name in our rankings.

As for Carley Thomas, I can't say that I'm super surprised by her recent 2:03 victory on her home track. She was clearly the best 800 meter runner in this field and her 4:36 mile PR from back in December suggested that the Husky ace would run something fairly quick.

I imagine that the goal of this race (for Thomas) was simply to get a national qualifying time under her belt. And now that she sits at NCAA #6 on the national leaderboard, Thomas can probably take her time in terms of how she wants to attack her indoor racing schedule for the next month and a half-ish.

Wow.

Wow, wow, wow.
 

I'm not gonna lie, if there was a betting line for Bradley's Wilma Nielsen to run under or over 2:40 for 1000 meters this past weekend, I would have smashed the over. And if you had moved that line to over/under 2:39, I would have put my entire life savings on the over.

Thank goodness I don't gamble.

Wilma Nielsen, who has run 2:02 for 800 meters overseas before coming to Bradley, has proven to be a talented and very solid half-miler for the Braves. She hasn't matched her half-mile PR since coming to the 'States, but she did run 2:03 last weekend -- a sign that she was trending in the right direction.

Of course, it's important to recognize that Nielsen running 2:03 this winter or even running 2:02 in prior seasons didn't at all suggest that she was going to post a jaw-dropping time of 2:38.95 over 1000 meters.

And yet, here we are.

Professional middle distance stars Ajee' Wilson and Sage Hurta-Klecker were the clear class of the women's 1000 meter field, running 2:35 and 2:36, respectively. But I would argue that Nielsen's 2:38 mark was maybe the most impressive result of that race relative to expectations.

Running 2:38.95 and sitting just 0.37 seconds behind Danae Rivers' collegiate record (which I got to see in person) suggests that Nielsen can probably run 2:01 for 800 meters this winter (or faster). The real question now is how effectively Neilsen will translate the momentum of this result to her marquee event.

I first became a fan of Rutgers ace Alex Carlson last winter. In her collegiate track debut, the east coast rookie ran 4:43 in the mile to pull off an upset victory over the Kentucky duo of Jenna Gearing and Tori Herman.

That early-season win ended up being the spark plug that allowed Carlson to eventually run 2:06 (800), 2:48 (1k), 4:36 (mile) and 9:15 (3k). For a freshman who was very good in high school, but not necessarily elite, those were fantastic performances.

After a year of growth, it looks like Carlson has reached an entirely new tier of fitness. The BIG 10 miler returned to her marquee distance this past weekend at Boston University. There, she ran an eyebrow-raising time of 4:31.51 to finish 2nd overall behind HOKA pro athlete, Krissy Gear.

Not only that, but Carlson also took down BAA pro, Annie Rodenfels, a strong distance talent who has been excellent over the last year or two.

Carlson has now gone from, "promising youngster with a bright future" to "she could legitimately be an All-American a month and a half from now."

There is almost nothing to dislike about her resume. She can be competitive in almost any field she is in, has a great understanding of positioning, has boasted subtly-strong range and, as far as we can tell, has yet to reach her ceiling.

With UCLA soon moving to the BIG 10, current sophomore and Virginia transfer Mia Barnett was expected to be the class of the conference when it came to the women's mile and the 1500 meters.

But if Carlson continues to post these kinds of performances, then it may be a Rutgers runner who is the face the women's BIG 10 mile...if she's not already there.

After sitting out from the 2022 cross country season (due to expired eligibility), there were questions as to what we could expect from one of the most experienced distance runners in the NCAA this winter.

Lauren Gregory made her season debut in the 5000 meters at Boston University back in December. But her 15:34 mark, while very strong, didn't necessarily give us a good idea of where her fitness actually was.

That's why this past weekend, in a loaded mile field where top talents spilled over to multiple heats, Gregory proved to be the best of the best. The Razorback star was in complete command of her heat and executed her race plan to near-perfection.

In the end, Gregory crossed the line in a time of 4:31, getting revenge over Taylor Roe who upset the Arkansas star in this same race last year. Not only that, but Gregory even defeated Stanford freshman star Juliette Whittaker by two seconds!

What are the chances that Gregory forgoes the 5k in favor of the mile at this year's indoor national meet? The former event is expected to be insanely top-heavy and the mile feels incredibly wide-open, especially if Tuohy goes for the 5k/3k double like we expect her to.

After her most recent result, I don't think that's an unrealistic suggestion.

Juliette Whittaker finished runner-up in her heat with a time of 4:33...but she didn't finish runner-up overall (more on that in a moment). Whittaker moved up in distance and showed a tremendous amount of poise in a field that could have given her a ton of problems, especially for a true freshman.

I highly doubt that this Cardinal rookie will pursue this event on the national stage, but this recent display of strength leads me to believe that she could improve upon her 2023 seasonal best (2:02) by up to two seconds.

The Oklahoma State duo of Taylor Roe and Billah Jepkirui ran 4:34 and 4:35, respectively. Sure, I thought Roe would win this race, but she never looked super comfortable. For her to salvage a 4:34 mark is still pretty impressive.

As for Jepkirui, we had her heard rumors that the Kenyan freshman had run 4:11 for 1500 meters. And after her most recent 4:35 mark, that rumored time seems fairly legitimate.

But believe it or not, there were actually two other women who ran faster than both Roe and Jepkirui in the fourth heat. I am, of course, talking about Oregon State's Kaylee Mitchell and BYU's Riley Chamberlain.

Mitchell has made it increasingly more difficult to leave her out of our rankings.

After running 8:55 for 3000 meters back in December and now winning her heat of the mile in 4:32, I have to wonder if this Beaver veteran has become one of the more disrespected distance talents as far as our top-25 rankings are concerned.

Also, what an incredible day for the BYU women.

True freshman Riley Chamberlain ran a phenomenal time of 4:33 in the same heat as Mitchell. Yes, it's true, she was making great progress over the last few months, but this kind of leap is Alex Carlson-like.

And don't forget, fellow Cougar teammates Sadie Sargent and Lexy Halladay-Lowry ran 4:35 and 4:37, respectfully. Yet again, Coach Diljeet Taylor has become a magician in terms of developing top distance talents.

This was one of the very, very, very few races that I actually predicted (mostly) correctly.

At the Washington Invite this past weekend, Portland's Laura Pellicoro and Oregon's Izzy Thornton-Bott were expected to be the two favorites for the overall win. In my predictions, I had Pellicoro edging Thornton-Bott in a tight mile battle.

I predicted that both women would run 4:34 and that Maddy Elmore (Oregon) would run a personal best of 4:39. Madison Heisterman and Simone Plourde did not race like they were expected to.

The final results ended with Thornton-Bott and Pellicoro each running 4:34 mile marks, although it was Thornton-Bott getting the narrow win over the Pilot ace. Elmore ended up finishing with a time of 4:38 and was the third-best collegiate.

When it comes to Pellicoro, there isn't much to talk about here. A handful of performances coming into this race suggested that she was in this kind of shape. Plus, she ran 4:34 on this same track in February of last year. She's done this before.

For Thornton-Bott, there were signs that she could run something like this. She proved to be tactically strong last spring and has also developed some excellent range since then. The Oregon standout also ran 4:35 in the outdoor mile this past December in Australia, so a 4:34 mile personal best felt like it was within her reach.

I feel confident that in a tactical setting, Thornton-Bott could emerge as an All-American this winter. However, when you consider that the Aussie miler is sitting at only NCAA #11 right now, she may need to run the slightest bit faster to advance to the national stage.

I sincerely don't think I can remember the last time that I saw this many women's DMR teams go under 11:00 before the month of February. Was there a memo that I missed?

On Friday, the women of Florida, Stanford, Oklahoma State, Kentucky, Arkansas, Oregon State and BYU all ran stacked or nearly-stacked DMR lineups which featured tons of star power. Here were the results...

Instead of going through each relay and talking about each leg, I'm going to offer some quick thoughts on some of the more key aspects of this race that I noticed.

Stanford was incredible behind Whittaker (3:18) on the lead-off leg and Willis (2:01) on the 800 meter leg. Melissa Tanaka, the Cardinal's anchor leg, ran a brilliant race, tactically, once she was caught by Valby and Roe. She knew how to conserve her energy and knew when to make her move.

However, Tanaka's 4:42 split will need to be far better if Stanford wants to contend for a national title. The top-seven teams in this race all had sub-4:40 anchors except for Stanford. Plus, we're assuming that Whittaker and Willis will run the 800 meters, individually, on the national stage, meaning that they'll have to double back (quickly) or be replaced.

Lauren Gregory split 4:29 for the Arkansas women on their anchor leg, a fantastic effort that could have resulted in a wild comeback. As far as the mile is concerned, this Razorback veteran looks insanely sharp.

Parker Valby put together a heroic anchor leg for the Florida women as she caught up to the leaders, but trying to cover that gap ultimately gassed her on the final lap. The long distance star was ultimately caught by more established milers, but her ability to salvage a 4th place finish and 10:57 mark was impressive.

We also saw the Duke women (10:56) and North Carolina women (10:57) run under 11:00 at Penn State. For the Tar Heels, this result isn't too surprising, but for the Blue Devils, this was a slightly quicker time than I was expecting. I don't think Amina Maatoug could have carried them to a mark this fast all on her own, meaning that this was (likely) a complete team effort.

If you're a frequent reader, then you know that I challenged Oregon's Elliott Cook to be "the guy" for the Ducks this winter. With no Bienenfeld, Teare, Hocker, etc. on the team, it felt like the men from Eugene needed / still need a true focal star.

And after two races, it looks Cook may be that guy.

After running a very fast time of 2:20 for 1000 meters, Cook returned to Washington's 300 meter indoor track to face-off against Husky middle distance runner, Cass Elliott. Unlike Cook, the Washington athlete opted to attack the 600 meters as his "off" distance two weeks ago.

In that race, Elliott posted a time of 1:17 for the middle distance event, an extremely impressive display of turnover and speed. But Cook was more proven over 800 meters and his recent 1000 meter effort was arguably just as strong -- so who was going to come out on top?

In this instance, it was the Oregon runner. Cook was able to out-duel Elliott en route to an overall win and a fantastic personal best of 1:46.93. Behind him was Elliott who ran 1:47 for a runner-up finish.

Cook looks like he can be the next marquee star of this Oregon program. The Ducks are still incredibly young and in many cases, are still trying to find their identity. But with Cook, a guy who has run 3:38 for 1500 meters, it feels like they have someone who they can truly rally around. Not just for a year, but for at least two more after this.

As for Cass Elliott, his time of 1:47.22 deserves massive respect. He's always been a strong middle distance runner and has run 1:48 multiple times. However, this was a personal best for him by over a full second which is a lot for the indoor 800 meters.

With a month of competition left before the indoor national meet entries are finalized, one has to ask...how much better can this Husky standout get?

Here is what I said about the men's mile in our Razorback Invitational Preview...

There's a world where Messaoudi pulls off the upset with some insanely fast time (think 3:53 or 3:54) and then the internet loses its mind for a week. And while I don't expect that to happen, I've learned not to doubt this Moroccan distance star.

And yet, I still predicted him to finish 3rd overall in a time of 3:56.

Just not my week for predictions, huh?

The potential was always there for Messaoudi to run 3:54, something he did this past Saturday (more specifically, 3:54.98). Fellow teammate Ryan Schoppe ran 3:55 for a narrow runner-up result.

At this point, I don't know if this Oklahoma State talent has a ceiling. And if he does, then I don't know where it ends. Messaoudi has been so explosive, so poised and so dynamic over the last two months. He has taken down a handful of highly talented distance runners and seems to have some of the best momentum in the NCAA.

As for Ryan Schoppe, I am not at all surprised to see him run 3:55. I predicted that he would post a 3:56 mark, so this result aligned with expectations. He did, after all, run 3:37 for 1500 meters last spring.

But what did surprise me was seeing Alex Maier fade to 6th place overall and a time of 3:58.

I'll be honest, I'm not entirely sure what Maier's game plan was. He did not get a good start and settled at the back of the pack for the first-half of the race. He rallied fairly well in the latter-half and was actually near both Schoppe and Messaoudi with a lap to go.

However, when Schoppe and Messaoudi threw down their final gear, Maier simply didn't have anything left, likely because he had spent so much energy trying to catch up to them. Even so, if a 3:58 mile effort is a "bad" race, then that's a good problem to have.

For the most part, this Oklahoma State star has been flawless in his races since last spring.

Last spring, Essayi emerged as one of the most lethal 1500 meter runners in the entire NCAA. He was undefeated going into the national meet and had thrown down a quick 800 meter time of 1:47 to pair with his seasonal best of 3:39.

But this South Carolina distance talent had actually gone to the Olympics in the 1500 meters while representing Morocco. He owns a 3:34 personal best. In other words, there were signs that this Gamecock star could run under 7:45 for 3000 meters.

The only question was...by how much?

Essayi ran a monster time of 7:41.93 to win the men's 3000 meters at the Dr. Sanders Invitational at The Armory. The collegiate ace held off a handful of rising pro athletes to secure a mark that now sits at NCAA #5 all-time.

Despite the incredible performance, I don't know if this result really tells us anything new about Essayi. He has built his reputation in the mile/1500 meters and at the indoor national meet, it is very possible for him to try the mile/3k double.

Even so, this is a no-joke time. And although Bosley just ran a collegiate record that is five seconds faster than what Essayi posted, the tactical brilliance of this South Carolina sophomore makes him a legitimate national title threat (if he's fresh).

Hand up, I was wrong.

Here is what I said about Casey Clinger in our meet preview...

Clinger is absolutely going to be a problem for the Stanford men this weekend. However, I'm not sure that Clinger has shown the same qualities that the Cardinal men have. I don't necessarily think he'll be an elite 3k runner in the same way that he is an elite 5k runner.

Of course, not being "elite" in one event doesn't mean that he won't still be great, either.

The BYU star has only ever contested the men's 3000 meters on the indoor oval once throughout his career (a 7:47.78 altitude conversion from last winter) and his leg speed in these longer distance races isn't as prevalent.

To be clear, Clinger has shown us on numerous occasions that he can be nationally competitive in the mile and in the 1500 meters. His turnover is absolutely there. But his best marks in those races have come at altitude (which are more strength-based settings) and he hasn't always had the same kick as a few other guys in tactical championship races.

And in the men's 3000 meters, I think he'll need some stronger turnover if he wants a chance of beating at least one of Stanford's "Big Three".

It's almost funny how wrong I was this weekend.

Casey Clinger put together the single-best race that I have ever seen from him (by a lot). The BYU star was super patient, only responded to moves when he had to and was strong enough over the final lap to hold off Cole Sprout.

While the Stanford men operated from the front for most of the race, Clinger simply ran behind them and essentially let them beat each other. The Provo-based distance talent eventually put himself at the front and then slowly pulled away from the pack while Sprout was alongside him.

I also said in our meet preview that Clinger was in the best shape of his life, which I truly did believe, but running 7:43 and taking down the entire Stanford contingent is massive validation of that suspicion.

As for Sprout, he continues to be so. darn. solid. Just like Clinger, he stayed pretty composed and just fought the entire way. A 7:44 mark is on-par with expectations and a second top-tier effort (after running 3:56 in the mile two weeks ago) gives me nearly zero reasons to be concerned about his injury from late November.

And then there was everyone else.

Ky Robinson faded to 3rd place overall in a time of 7:49. That's a fine result, but this is a guy who has run 3:55 (mile) and 13:11 (5k) this season. He was supposed to at least post a time under 7:46 this past weekend.

Robinson was very active at the front of this race, but he just didn't have an answer when Clinger and Sprout pulled away. Because whenever he did realize that a gap was forming, it was likely too late at that point.

I'm not going to read too heavily into this result. But after praising this Aussie superstar for his high racing IQ, I was surprised to see him not have his most refined race, tactically.

Charles Hicks just had a flat-out bad day. It was brutal. He ran 7:53.90 (3k) in his season debut and just had zero gas in the latter-half of this race. And while that would usually concern me, I just think about last year.

His season debut in the winter of 2022, which was also a 3k race, was actually even worse...and then Hicks placed 3rd in that event at the indoor national meet.

He will rebound and I'm not worried about him at all.

Also, shoutout to Arkansas' Lexington Hilton. He ran a 3:58 mile PR earlier this month and just ran 7:49 (3k) on Saturday. Momentum is very clearly in his favor.

I truthfully don't think that we need to spend a ton of time on this performance.

Yes, Dylan Jacobs ran 13:11 for 5000 meters. Yes, that is a new NCAA lead for the event. Yes, that is wildly impressive and yes, it probably puts him in the title conversation.

But...is anyone really surprised?

The Tennessee graduate student ran 13:14 on this same track last winter and has historically done very well in aggressively-paced fields. And in case you forget, he was racing in one of the fastest indoor 5k races that the United States has ever seen.

I predicted him to run 13:15, but it's not like a 13:11 personal best was out of the realm of possibility for him. Even so, Jacobs now ranks at NCAA #3 all-time for the indoor 5k and is continuing to solidify his legacy as one of the best distance runners of this insanely fast era.