College Commitment Evals

With National Signing Day taking place last week, we got to see a handful of the country's top high school distance talents announce where they will be attending school next year (although many of those athletes had already made announcements well before last week). Below, Maura and Eric evaluated some of the nation's top commits and analyzed how they could (eventually) impact the collegiate realm...

Maura: I’m going all-in on one team for both the men and the women. I am, of course, talking about the University of North Carolina as coach Chris Miltenberg is quickly turning Chapel Hill into the new Palo Alto.

Picking up top talents in Parker Wolfe (Colorado), Judson Greer (Texas), Sully Shelton (Georgia), Crawford Hope (Alabama), Colton Sands (Pennsylvania) and Ethan Strand (Alabama) is huge for the Tar Heels as the incoming recruits validate the idea that UNC is headed in an entirely new direction.

Wolfe has run excellent times at altitude during his high school career and he just took down a loaded field at the RunningLane National Championship. Meanwhile, Greer owns a blazing 8:56 PR for 3200 meters and is coming off of a strong victory at the XC Town USA Meet of Champions.

Shelton, Hope, Sands and Strand all have strong range as well and will add key depth to this UNC roster. Each of those men have the potential to (eventually) develop into valuable scorers.

For the women, the Tar Heels brought in a stellar recruiting class in 2020 and that group of freshmen was spectacular for them this past fall. However, when you look at the incoming recruits from the Class of 2021, one could argue that next year's freshman class will be even better.

2018 Foot Locker Champion Sydney Masciarelli (Connecticut) is one of the major headline names of this class. The young talent owns an outstanding personal best of 9:21 (3k), but what might be even more impressive is her 5k PR of 16:16.

Aside from Masciarelli, Brynn Brown (Texas) has made a name for herself and will be one who could quickly make an impact for UNC. Brown ran a jaw-dropping time of 9:39 for 3200 meters (unofficially) during a time trial over the summer and has proven herself in both the mile and 5k, as well as on the cross country course.

Both Masciarelli and Brown have enough raw talent to be major impact names as soon as they step foot on the Chapel Hill campus. It is very possible that they will replicate some of the scoring potency that we saw from current freshman Sasha Neglia this past fall.

Carlee Hansen (Utah) will be traveling quite a distance for her collegiate experience, but her running career could really take off at UNC. Hansen has run 4:42 for the mile and owns strong personal bests in both the 800 and 3200 meters. Tack on middle distance specialist Makayla Paige (Massachusetts) who boasts a personal best of 2:06 for 800 meters, and it's hard to find a distance-based recruiting class better than the UNC women

Eric: There is certainly an argument for the UNC men, but it's hard to pass on this Northern Arizona recruiting class on the men’s side. Tristian Merchant is a very underrated talent coming out of Alaska. He ran 14:41 (5k) this past fall and was a 2019 NXN All-American after finishing 13th. Those performances, paired with his 8:59 (3200) time trial from earlier this year, must have the ‘Jacks feeling fortunate to steal someone from the Last Frontier.

Of course, this class doesn’t end with the Alaska native. By heavily recruiting out of the midwest, the men from Flagstaff were able to find three more top talents in Jack Scherer, Cael Grotenhuis and Hobbs Kessler.

By choosing NAU, Wisconsin natives Scherer and Grotenhuis are following in the paths of two other recent Wisconsin high school standouts in Drew Bosley and Caleb Easton

Scherer is a top-notch name who had the best cross country season of his career this fall. He just ran 14:40 for 5000 meters after finishing 9th at the RunningLane Cross Country Championships and recorded a 14:54 (5k) earlier in the year. As for Grotenhuis, he hasn't recorded the same times that Scherer has, but he did have a long string of wins this past fall and was 2nd at the Wisconsin state meet.

Last but not least is Hobbs Kessler. He most recently finished runner-up to Judson Greer at the XC Town USA Meet of Champs. After running 8:53 for 3200 meters in a time trial back in June, the Lumberjacks are securing yet another elite-level recruit.

In the grand scheme of things, it's hard to find more firepower that fits the cross country / long distance identity that Northern Arizona has established.

As we transition to the women's side, I think I'll go with Stanford, just for the sake of variety. They landed a true middle distance runner in Taylor James, a highly accomplished talent in Audrey Suarez, a versatile Australian in Imogen Gardiner and someone with a lot of upside in Audrey Dadamio.

Taylor James has a ton of raw speed that still needs to be fine-tuned, but rarely do we see someone with her kind of range. She had experience running everything from the 60 meter dash all the way up to the 5k in cross country, finishing 61st the 2019 NXN Championships. People will also recognize her name from the 2019 Music City Distance Carnival where she won the 800 meters in an outstanding time of 2:05 over Bailey Goggans.

Joining James in the middle distance ranks will be Audrey Suarez. With personal bests of 4:45 (1600) and 2:11 (800), she is someone who fits the mold of a top miler who can also find success on the grass. She was, after all, a Foot Locker national qualifier back in 2018.

Audrey Dadamio, a Michigan native, is the true long distance runner of this incoming class as she recently ran a time of 17:03 for 5000 meters at the RunningLane Cross Country Championships where she placed 3rd. Pair that performance with times of 4:52 (1600) and 10:24 (3200) and you have yourself a well-rounded runner who will certainly add to the depth of this roster once the veterans finish their eligibility.

Lastly, hailing from the "Land Down Under" is Imogen Gardiner. The Australian will soon venture to Palo Alto with personal bests of 2:09 (800), 4:20 (1500) and 9:38 (3k). It's tough to say exactly which distances she will be focusing on at the collegiate level, but it's clear that her versatility and middle distance prowess makes her a top name who could extend Stanford's success on the track.

Maura: Grace Ping choosing Oklahoma State surprised me. The Cowgirls have shown promise across all distances, especially in the middle distance events like the 1500 and mile, but I thought Ping would choose a BIG 10 program like Michigan or a PAC-12 program like Washington. Even so, the BIG 12 could be a good move for Ping and it certainly gives the Cowgirls a future piece to contend with Iowa State.

On the men's side, schools like Indiana University and Purdue University both have strong distance teams, but seeing Indiana native Lucas Guerra choose Georgetown was surprising. The 9:06 (3200) runner would’ve added some much needed depth to either Indiana or Purdue after the graduation of key veterans, but he decided to travel further east for college and has opted to train with the Hoyas.

Eric: I'll go with another Georgetown commit. I was surprised that Mateo Althouse (Portland, Oregon) chose the Hoyas. I always thought of Georgetown as a middle distance school as evidenced by their strong history of 800 meter runners (i.e. Joe White) as well as their always impressive DMR teams during the indoor track season.

Althouse seems like he is more of a longer distance runner given that he qualified for Foot Locker last year and owns a 5k PR of 14:53. It's not that Georgetown hasn't had success in cross country or the longer distances (because they certainly have), but I thought it was surprising to see the Portland, Oregon native venture to the other side of the country.

As for the women, Hannah Miniutti from Blessed Trinity School in Georgia is heading to Colorado and that definitely surprised me. Not often does a southern-based runner make it on the Buffaloes roster, but Miniutti is certainly accomplished enough to be on there. She was the Georgia XC Meet of Champions winner and a NXN finalist.

Maura: There are two commitments on the women’s side that appear to be the best fit on paper, at least from my perspective. The first one has to be Bailey Goggans (Texas) signing with Texas A&M. Goggans has run 2:04 for 800 meters, so what better place to train than College Station?

The Aggies have produced multiple 800 meter All-Americans and NCAA Champions over the last few years and also have high school superstar Athing Mu currently on their roster (along with a few other key names). There aren't many athlete-school matches better than Goggans and Texas A&M.

The second name on the women’s side has to be Sydney Thorvaldson (Wyoming) heading out to join the distance powerhouse at the University of Arkansas. Thorvaldson has really proven herself over the last two years of her high school career and has the capability to challenge for a top five scoring spot in the Razorbacks' lineup. She offers similar firepower and promise that we saw from current Razorback freshman Taylor Ewert.

As for the men, I’ll again be going with two names. The first one is Nathan Green (Idaho) signing with the University of Washington. Green owns personal bests of 1:55 (800), 4:06 (mile) and 8:57 (3200) meters and boasts an 11th place finish at the NXN Championships from last year.

The Huskies are a team that are seemingly focused on succeeding in cross country and becoming a powerhouse when it comes to developing top milers. On paper, Green seems to be a perfect match for those objective given what he has accomplished. Who knows? Maybe Green will join the sub-4 mile club that the Huskies have established under coach Andy Powell.

My second name is Jack Scherer (Wisconsin) who is traveling across the country to NAU. As Eric already mentioned, Scherer is a consistently great cross country talent who owns a personal best of 14:40 for 5000 meters. The Lumberjacks have picked up strong talents from the Cheesehead State in the past (i.e. Bosley and Easton) and it looks like they are building on that Wisconsin to Flagstaff connection.

Eric: On the men’s side, I’m going to go with Jackson Braddock. The New Jersey native is headed down south to Charlottesville to join a young and very promising Virginia squad. Being a distance recruit who specializes in the longer events will bode well for a group that saw plenty of success from their younger talents this past fall.

Given all of the craziness that we have seen this year, it may be easy to forget that Braddock ran 8:54 for 3200 meters to take home the win at the Music City Distance Carnival this past summer. Even so, that race definitely solidified him as a runner who has a lot of untapped potential and someone who can be an interesting name to watch when it comes to finding scorers for Virginia's future lineup.

I think running with a team made up of a lot of younger talents such as Bryson Crites, Wes Porter and Justin Diehl will be good for Braddock who will also be under the watchful eye of a very experienced coach in Vin Lananna.

When it comes to the women, nobody is talking about the fit between Arkansas and Katy Cinco Ranch senior Heidi Nielson. The Texas native was the 2019 Adidas Dream Mile winner and has extensive range. She ran 4:46 in Boston to secure the victory in the Dream Mile and boasts other personal bests such as 2:19 (800), 10:27 (3200) and 16:54 (5k).

I see Nielson finding a very similar groove to what Razorback veteran Lauren Gregory is currently doing for the Hogs. You could argue that both women are more middle distance based, but they can each effectively move up in distance if necessary. They both benefit tremendously from all of the strength gained in cross country and have great finishing speed due to their middle distance background.

The similarities between those two made this an easy one when it comes to finding the best fits between athletes and their respective schools.

Maura: Josh Armstrong (Utah) has yet to commit to a college. The 1:56 800 meter and 4:15 1600 meter runner will add depth to any team he joins. I predict that Armstrong will sign with Utah State and join his older brother Caleb.

Eric: Coming out of the DMV area is St. Albans senior Damian Hackett. With a strong middle distance background and an improved presence on grass (as evidenced by his sub-15:30 5k from this fall), I predict that he commits to Georgetown.

Maura: I think that John Lester (California) committing to Stanford will change the way that we view the men from Palo Alto, at least for the next few years. Lester is a 1:48 (800) and 4:06 (mile) guy who brings a huge amount of middle distance firepower to a Stanford team that is typically focused on the longer distances. We rarely see the Cardinal men in the national conversation for 800 meters, but Lester's PR already puts him in national qualifying contention.

On the women's side, Brooke Rauber (New York) committing to NC State is huge. The Wolfpack just keep getting stronger and now have an even brighter future with Rauber essentially being added to their recruits from the Class of 2020.

Rauber has been very impressive over the last two years, running personal bests of 4:48 (mile) and 9:33 (3k). The Wolfpack could win a national title as soon as this winter (or next fall), but the addition of Rauber gives the NC State women a great chance to sustain long-term success, even when top names like Steelman and Clairemonte eventually run out of eligibility.

Eric: Cherry Creek senior and UNC commit Parker Wolfe is on fire right now. After his performance at the RunningLane Cross Country Championships where he ran an astonishing personal best of 14:26 (5k), I can't help but see the Colorado native as the crown jewel of coach Chris Miltenburg’s 2021 signing class.

I think Wolfe is going to be the guy who puts it altogether and gives this team a true superstar to lean on over the next few years, effectively bringing the UNC men to national prominence.

The Arkansas women securing a commitment from Sydney Thorvaldson is also huge for keeping the ‘Hogs in contention for a National Championship in the near future. Her most recent race was a win at the XC Town Cross Country Championships in Terre Haute, Indiana. I think she will have an impact similar to what Taylor Ewert did this year for the Razorbacks.

With the young core of Ewert, Corie Smith, Isabel Van Camp, London Culbreath, current high school senior Allie Janke and aforementioned signee Heidi Nielson, Arkansas isn’t going to turn down the services of another nationally ranked star in Thorvaldson.

Despite a few veterans nearing the end of their eligibility, few cross country programs have the elite-level youngsters that Arkansas does. It seems fair to say that this team can be contending for a national title once again after Thorvaldson and co. have additional time to develop.