2023 Camel City Invitational Preview (Elite Fields)

Written by Maura Beattie, Scotty Loughlin & Garrett Zatlin

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The Camel City Invitational is one of the most popular, and often one of the fastest, indoor track meets of the year. Held in the famed "JDL Fast Track" facility, the Winston-Salem-based 200 meter indoor oval is actually a flat-track with no banked curves.

As a result, many of the nation's best east coast distance programs flock to the Camel City Invitational in hopes of placing their athletes at the top of the NCAA leaderboard. And with a handful of competitive pro athletes often scattered throughout the "elite" fields, the Saturday races almost always produce Sunday headlines.

Below, our TSR team answered a handful of prompts about all of the "elite" distance fields that we're set to see this weekend. Let's not waste anymore time and get straight to it...

Editor’s Note: Brenna Detra, Jazmine Fray & Charlene Lipsey are the pro athletes in this field.

Maura: I’m going to say 85% chance.

Virginia Tech’s Lindsey Butler has proven herself to be a legitimate contender in basically every middle distance event (if you include her 4:29 DMR split from last year), no matter the competition.

The Hokie ace, who is also the reigning 800 meter NCAA indoor champion, has a current PR of 2:01 which is one of the faster marks in this field. Butler has raced twice this indoor track season, opting for a speed-based and an endurance-based event, namely the 1k and the 3k.

She has bettered both of her personal bests in those events and is inching closer to going under that 2:01 barrier -- likely with a flat-track conversion this weekend.

A win on Saturday would solidify Butler as the one to beat come March.

And in my eyes, a win isn’t too far out of reach for her in the slightest.

Scotty: I’m not quite as confident as Maura, but I still feel like this is Lindsey Butler’s race to lose. As the reigning NCAA indoor half-mile champion, she’s easily favored among the collegians. Plus, with Jazmine Fray slated to be a pacer, she’ll only have to edge Brenna Detra and Charlene Lipsey.

Yes, both of those women have sub-2:00 personal bests on their career resumes, but I would also echo Maura’s comments of how great Butler’s endurance has looked thus far this winter.

When combining that strength with the elite speed that we’ve seen from her time and time again, I’ll round out my thoughts by awarding Butler a 65% chance to win. I’ll also shoot my shot and say Butler runs an NCAA-leading time under 2:01 (via flat-track conversion).

Garrett: I think I'm closer to 50% for Butler winning this race which is funny given that I'm the Virginia Tech alum and yet, gave her the lowest odds.

I fully believe that Butler can win this race. She's probably considered to be the overall favorite. Her resume, which Maura and Scotty have outlined, is impressively complete. And given her recent 1k personal best, I have a reason to believe that she can run a converted 2:00 mark on Saturday.

But Detra and Lipsey have both run under two minutes over the half-mile distance before. Lipsey ran 2:42 for 1000 meters back in January while Detra has already run 2:01 and 2:02 this season. To suggest that Butler is an overwhelming favorite feels a little extreme.

I will say that Butler has a 50% chance of winning. It's going to be a toss-up between her and one of those two pro athletes to win. I think that's a somewhat fair balance in terms of odds.

Maura: I hate to say it, but no. Seymour has sort of dropped off of my radar for the time being.

Looking at the entries, I’ve got to go with Esther Seeland of Virginia as the second-best collegiate in the field. The D3 transfer from Messiah arrived in Charlottesville this past fall and immediately capitalized on a new training environment during the cross country season.

She was instrumental in the Cavaliers' rise on the grass.

The 2:02 half-miler has some natural foot-speed, as well as experience vying for top finishes, even in some loaded fields. Just look at her five NCAA titles (D3) for evidence of what she’s capable of, as well as some wins in D1-heavy races.

Seeland has opened her 2023 indoor season with a modest 2:05 mark, but this weekend, with some upper-tier competition, the anticipation is rising for her to run a quick time.

Scotty: Although Seymour struggled in her lone race this season, I still think she deserves the respect of being viewed as the second-best runner in this field behind the woman who defeated her at the 2022 indoor national meet (Butler).

Maura brings up a great threat in Esther Seeland and I expect her to be very competitive in this field. But given Seymour’s experience, I’ll dismiss her recent 2:07 mark as a rust-buster and predict that she finishes as the second-best collegiate with a 2:03 or 2:04 mark (converted).

If she fails to run a time in that range, then...I may need a “prove-it” race from Seymour to make me believe again. But for now, I’ll maintain an optimistic outlook.

Garrett: Gosh, I'm so conflicted.

I am a big fan of Seymour. She is historically at her best in the postseason and it feels silly to suggest that someone as accomplished as her wouldn't be competitive in this field.

At the same time, her 2:07 mark, where she might have been intentionally seeded in section five of the women's 800 meters at the Razorback Invitational, was not encouraging...at all.

I have a hunch that Seymour will eventually rise in the postseason, but for now, I think I'll actually give the nod to Hannah Ballowe, another Virginia Tech runner. She's been quietly developing behind Butler for the last few seasons.

Although the Hokie talent has had a few moments of inconsistency, a 2:04 (800) PR and a recent 2:44 (1k) effort suggests that she could run a converted 2:03 this weekend...and maybe 2:02 on a perfect day.

Scotty: Among the likes of Cade Flatt, Colin Sahlman and Gary Martin, another one of the most explosive track stars at the prep level in 2022 was Canfield High School’s Nick Plant.

With elite personal bests of 1:48 (800) and 4:07 (mile), Plant has the wheels to legitimately contend with the best runners that the NCAA has to offer if he transitions smoothly to collegiate competition.

Which brings us to this exact question.

My expectation for Plant’s first race as a Hokie is that he’ll perform well by mixing it up with established professional runners, defeating the other collegiates around him and setting a new PR (via conversion) behind the fierce pace the professionals set ahead of him.

If his 2022 Brooks PR race (where Plant edged Martin and finished just behind Sahlman) taught us anything, it’s that Plant is at his very best against high-quality competition.

Camel City should reveal step one of what could end up being a remarkable career.

Garrett: I don't believe that Plant is going to run a PR, even with a conversion.

I am a big Nick Plant guy. I think him and Cade Flatt were arguably the best fits for their respective programs among all of the recruits in the Class of 2022. And over the long-term, I see Plant being a star.

But this is a high-pressure setting with a handful of pro athletes who will make this race insanely fast. It's going to be on a flat-track and Plant has only ever run under 1:50 for 800 meters on the outdoor oval before (although he did run 1:50 last winter).

I could see Plant earning a conversion that puts him in the 1:49 range. That seems like it would be a fair and solid start. Could he throw down a 1:47 conversion? Sure, I suppose that's possible, but I think the first scenario is significantly more likely than the latter.

Maura: I’m picking the dark horse here in Duke’s Amina Maatoug to come out on top for the collegiates.

This past fall, the Blue Devil star turned heads right away in her first NCAA-sanctioned cross country meet thanks to a surprise victory at the Virginia Invitational. She continued to live up to the hype when she earned All-American honors with a 28th place finish in November.

Maatoug has continued to catch my attention with her track performances. An 8:55 (3k) season debut and a recent 2:04 (800) mark showcase tremendous range. And now that she's meeting in the middle for the mile, this could be her sweet spot. Oh, and with a 4:14 (1500) PR to her name, the sophomore’s potential for a quick time is absolutely there.

Yes, Bush and Tyynismaa are more experienced and their names are always thrown around among the best of the best. But everyone loves an underdog, and that’s Maatoug in this case.

But if any collegiate is going to breakup that juggernaut trio, then it's going to be NAIA superstar freshman Addy Wiley of Huntington U.

Wiley is on a different level, a level that could take her to historic places within the NAIA realm. The freshman talent has a 1500 meter PR of 4:11, a time that ranks her highly amongst all-collegiates. She might not race against NCAA competitors weekly, but that likely won’t faze her this weekend.

She’s got range on her side and is coming in fresh against these women.

Scotty: I’m putting a heavy wager on the newest member of the NC State Wolfpack, Amaris Tyynismaa (racing unattached), finishing as the top collegiate and taking the OVERALL win in the process.

Yes, I said overall.

The former Alabama runner has the fastest full mile PR of anyone in the field at 4:33 and her fitness has only gotten better as evidenced by her rocket-fast 8:55 (3k) mark in December. Professional runners such as Anna Camp-Bennett and Ellie Leather will certainly provide elite competition, but I’m putting my trust in Tyynismaa whose stock has never been higher.

Maura is right about Addy Wiley being (easily) the biggest threat to upsetting that trio, so I’ll pivot and instead highlight Duke freshman, Dalia Frias. The Blue Devil rookie was a five-star talent during her prep career at Mira Costa High School where she ran incredible times of 4:35 (mile) and set a course record at the 2021 Woodbridge XC Classic.

On paper, that already puts her among some of the better collegiates in the NCAA.

Frias' ceiling feels like it's sky-high. And while it's more likely that she needs additional time to develop into a true threat to these top talents, there's a chance that she makes a huge jump in this loaded field.

Garrett: I’m really struggling with this one.

Bush is seemingly the most fit of these three women so far this season (by a slim margin), Maatoug is theoretically at her best in the mile and Tyynismaa is probably the most proven in this event.

I'm really not sure. I think I'll go Tyynismaa. She seems like the smart and safest pick to emerge as the top collegiate, even if she's running unattached. I really wanted to pick Maatoug, but I usually take the safer route when making predictions. Bush could absolutely run a 4:31 or 4:32 conversion, but with a current 4:37 mile PR, I just had to give the nod to her newest teammate.

As for breaking up that trio, I think Addy Wiley is probably the most obvious choice and I don't think anyone will argue with Maura. She's still pretty new to the collegiate level, but her talent is top-notch.

I'll go with another Virginia Tech runner in Ava Hassebrock. She may only be a sophomore by eligibility, but she is quietly VERY experienced. She just ran a sizable 1k personal best of 2:45 the other weekend and already holds marks of 4:19 (1500) and 4:41 (mile).

She's due for a breakout race...but by how much?

Maura: Nick Dahl has been impressive on the indoor oval and it’s a real shame that he’s competing unattached due to expired indoor eligibility. Dahl matched his blistering mile PR of 3:55 last weekend in a race where he finished 2nd overall, just less than three-tenths of a second out from the win.

The still-active Blue Devil might not have the same long distance endurance that Vanoppen does, but he's not far off and it’s the speed factor via his 800 meter prowess that gives Dahl the edge in my mind.

Scotty: Thomas Vanoppen and Nick Dahl have been so competitive during so many of their duels since Dahl transferred to the ACC from Yale. And at this point, it’s essentially a coin flip trying to choose between them.

While I agree with Maura that Dahl arguably has the better speed, Vanoppen’s strength that he flexed last week running 7:48 (3k) is no joke and it proved that he’s in tip-top shape.

I’ll give the edge to Vanoppen as the Demon Deacon star aims for his first official sub-4:00 mile (even before conversions), which his 3:37 (1500) PR suggests that he should have no problem doing.

It's just a matter of...how far under four minutes can he go on a flat-track?

Garrett: Gosh, I never thought I would consistently stump myself on my own questions.

I think this race is a legitimate toss-up. Vanoppen's 7:48 (3k) mark suggests that he has better overall strength. But Dahl's recent 3:55 mile shows us that he's in top form and he also has better middle distance speed.

In their last four races, all of which were on the outdoor oval, Vanoppen was 4-0 against Dahl over 1500 meters. If you include the separate heats of the East Regional Championships, then the record moves up to 5-0.

History says that Vanoppen has the edge, but Dahl was clearly better than this Wake Forest star on the indoor oval last year. The unattached Duke runner is also better in time trial-type scenarios.

I don't think there's a wrong answer here...but I'll go with Dahl, even if I was about to say Vanoppen when writing this analysis.

Editor’s Note: Susan Ejore, Eilish Flanagan, Michaela Reinhart & Hannah Steelman are the unattached/pro athletes in this field.

Maura: 90%

You just can’t bet against Wolfpack stud Kelsey Chmiel. When the long-time veteran finished runner-up at the Nuttycombe Invite this past cross country season after not racing a step since the 2022 indoor national meet, I succumbed that the junior always delivers.

The NC State star was the 3k runner-up last year at the Camel City Invitational, running her current PR of 8:59 (unconverted). Chmiel has a great mix of foot speed and strength thanks to her 4:36 (mile) and 15:27 (5k) marks that are likely due to be reset.

Having those racing tools, mixed with her experience, gives her the edge this weekend.

Scotty: I don’t disagree with any of Maura’s analysis on Chmiel’s skillset, but 90% is way too high considering which pro athletes are in this field.

Chmiel’s former teammate, Hannah Steelman, who is now with On, just set a new 3k PR of 8:55 in this event last weekend (albeit, on a banked track). Steelman will also be joined by sub-9:00 athletes such as Eilish Flanagan, Anna Camp-Bennett and Susan Ejore.

Chmiel has great range, but I’ll pick Steelman to take the overall win and drop Chmiel’s chances to 20%, which will most likely still take an effort under nine minutes.

Garrett: I agree with everything that both Maura and Scotty said about Chmiel's abilities, resume, talent, etc. However, what I don't agree on is the percentages that they gave out. Maura's choice of 90% was way too high. Scotty's choice of 20% is way too low.

I think I would give a 40% chance to Chmiel, a 40% chance to Hannah Steelman, a 10% chance to Susan Ejore, a 5% chance to Eilish Flanagan and a 5% chance to the rest of the women in this field.

Steelman is fresh off of new 3000 meter PR (8:55), which is super impressive, but Chmiel is plenty familiar with her old teammate and is more than capable of matching that mark. I think those two are the favorites with Susan Ejore having a realistic shot at an upset.

After a fantastic 2022 cross country season, Chmiel is likely in the best shape or her life and I imagine that she'll take advantage of that this weekend.

Maura: Margot Appleton of Virginia keeps flying under the radar.

The Cavalier sophomore has competed twice this winter, but both showings were on a DMR. This weekend could ultimately be Appleton’s coming out party in the 3k. Her skillset and history suggests that she'll eventually be great in the longer distances, but her recent success in the mile/1500 meters could mean that the 3k is her ideal event.

Admittedly, Appleton hasn’t toed the line for a 3k race yet during her collegiate career. But when you consider her 4:17 (1500) speed and 16:17 (5k) strength, how do you not see a sub-9:10 (3k) mark next to her name this weekend?

After her breakout 2022 cross country season, highlighted by a 55th place finish at the NCAA XC Championships, Appleton’s got momentum on her side.

Scotty: I’m expecting BYU’s Riley Chamberlain to blow her 9:19 (3k) personal best from December out of the water at Camel City.

The young Cougar star just unloaded a massive 4:33 mile time at the Razorback Invitational and is very clearly in better track form than what she opened the season with prior to the holidays.

Although her prep career would suggest that Chamberlain is a tried and true miler, the way she competed with the likes of Oregon State superstar Kaylee Mitchell last week is proof that she’s confident in her fitness.

Her proven speed could also lead to a fierce kick in the closing stages of a longer event like the 3000 meters.

Garrett: I refuse to give up on BYU's Jenna Hutchins.

Yes, it's true, she may not exactly be a "breakout star" like a few other women could be in this race given her historically elite high school credentials. But over the last few months, her collegiate results have admittedly been limited...and not-so-great.

But I strongly believe that Coach Diljeet Taylor wouldn't have fielded Hutchins in this race if she wasn't fit, healthy and prepared. I envision that this will be the Tennessee native's ideal racing distance, at least for now.

I can see Hutchins posting a converted 3k time that could be well under 9:10 this weekend.

Maura: To be completely honest, I can’t.

The collegiate men in this field are flirting with roughly similar personal bests. As far as the NCAA entries are concerned, this race is truly anyone’s as each individual brings something different to the table.

Virginia Tech’s Antonio Lopez Segura is an All-American in the 3k. Wake Forest’s Luke Tewalt is coming off of an impressive end to his 2022 cross country season. NC State’s Ian Shanklin has experience racing for top finishes and head-turning times.

The list goes on.

So, no, I’m not convinced.

Scotty: I think we’ve gotta give Antonio Lopez Segura more love for that All-American finish in the 3k last year...right? To me, that makes him the favorite to finish as the top collegiate over the other competitors in this field.

Is he a “lock” to finish as the top collegiate? No, of course not. Maura rightfully listed a handful of men who will provide a great challenge to the Hokie veteran.

But if we were to set odds for such a result, I’d put my money on the guy with 3:56 (mile) PR and 2:20 (1k) speed who overtook a fading (and later stumbling) Yared Nuguse in a DMR at the ACC Indoor Championships last year.

Garrett: I think Antonio Lopez Segura has to be given the nod of respect as the overall favorite in this field. He did, after all, secure a 6th place All-American finish in this event last winter and has a converted mark of 7:43 (3k) from last year.

But I agree with Scotty, I don't at all think he's a lock to be the top collegiate. As Maura pointed out, guys like Shankin and Tewalt all have the potential to win this race. I would also add Nickolas Scudder and Dylan Schubert to that mix.

Of course, when you look at all of these resumes and see how they apply to the 3000 meter racing distance, Lopez Segura deserves to be viewed as the top (NCAA) dog in this field.

Maura: Brett Gardner of NC State got his toes wet the previous years in terms of upper-level experience and has been quietly making a splash as of late.

The junior had a respectable cross country season leading up to the NCAA XC Championships. In Oklahoma, the Wolfpack junior crossed the finish line in 64th place which, in retrospect, was probably a slight over-performance when looking at his 2022 regular season results.

With all eyes now set on the indoor track season, Gardner has showed subtle confidence following his fall campaign by recording a 4:01 mile PR as well as a promising 13:48 (5k) mark. Momentum feels like it's fairly high for Gardner heading into Camel City after those showings.

With the 3k on deck this weekend, Gardner’s chances of breaking 8:00 is high, maybe even guaranteed. His current best is 8:14, but when you look at his 3k steeplechase mark of 8:37, there’s more in the tank for the flat version of this distance.

Scotty: Make way for Furman’s Dylan Schubert!

The Paladin ace was one of the biggest breakout stars of the latest cross country season where he finished 11th at the NCAA XC Championships. However, he has yet to toe the line for an indoor track meet in 2023.

Who’s to say that his remarkable leap in fitness won’t translate to the oval, too? After all, Furman has a fairly consistent history of producing upper-tier distances runners (Templeton, Ponder, Adams, etc.) and it looks like Schubert is next in line.

Schubert enters Camel City with a modest 3k PR of 8:06 in this event, but given the parity in this field, he’ll have a great opportunity to key off of his competitors and potentially shave 12 or more seconds off of his personal best when it’s all said and done.

Garrett: I'll say Carson Williams, another rising Furman talent.

He just ran a 3:59 mile PR the other weekend and is an 8:37 steeplechaser from last spring. Williams actually qualified for the 2022 outdoor national meet in that latter event. Generally speaking, there are A LOT of signs suggesting that this Paladin runner could shatter expectations on Saturday and have a huge race.

Also, keep an eye on Virginia Tech's Declan Rymer. As someone who graduated from VT and grew up in Rymer's hometown, I've been a fan of him from afar. So after seeing him run 2:23 (1k) and 4:01 (mile) earlier this season, this rising Hokie talent could be in store for a big jump.

*Predictions via Garrett Zatlin

*Collegiates only, assumes all runners will contest the race that they are entered in.

*All predicted times are entered as CONVERTED marks.

*Listed times are entered as projected converted marks

*Listed times are entered as projected converted marks

*Listed times are entered as projected converted marks

*Listed times are entered as projected converted marks

*Listed times are entered as projected converted marks

*Listed times are entered as projected converted marks