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- XC Preseason Individual Rankings #30-21
Feel free to check out our rankings from earlier in the week! As always, be sure to comment below what you like or don't like. #50 - 41 #40 - 31 --- #20 - 11 #10 - 1 Next set of 10 (#20-11) coming on Saturday! #30 Brent Demarest / Virginia / Rs. Junior As a student at Virginia Tech, it pains me to put a rival individual in the Top 50. Still, I have to give credit where credit is due. Demarest put together some under valued performances in 2016 and should be primed for another solid season throughout the fall. Last year, Demarest started off his season at the Adidas XC Challenge where he placed an unimpressive 33rd overall. However, he eventually found his groove and progressively bettered his performances. Demarest would place 11th at Panorama Farms, 6th at the Penn State Open, and 7th at ACC's. However, youth was still a factor at the Southeastern Regional Championships and the Virginia ace struggled by finishing in 38th. Luckily, the Cavaliers would qualify for Nationals as a team and Demarest would have a chance to redeem himself. Once at Nationals, Demarest had arguably the best race of his season with a 42nd place finish at Nationals...a stark contrast to his regional performance just two weeks earlier. Some may argue that there are others with better performances who deserve this spot and I can certainly understand the argument. Nonetheless, I saw something special in Demarest. He stepped up when Wynne became injured, made dramatic improvements from his 2015 performances, and ran with the poise of a redshirt senior...not a redshirt sophomore. He may not have the flashy track times or the status of All-American, but with another year of development, I really like the direction that he is headed. For that, I decided to rank him 30th. #29 Michael Williams / Washington State / Senior It was somewhat comical trying to rank Michael Williams in my Top 50 for 2016. He had so many outstanding performances that were inevitably countered by less impressive finishes. Despite the inconsistency, he made the most out of his "good" races which is what got him to this spot. After a few very average rust-busters early on in the season, Williams raced at Notre Dame where he finished a respectable 16th place overall. Things only got better for the Washington State Cougar as he traveled to Wisconsin and proved that he was the real deal by placing 15th overall. It was best regular season performance of his career. Unfortunately, things did not go as smoothly at conferences (PAC 12) and regionals (West) as he finished 24th and 17th in those races. His inconsistency left him as a wildcard for Nationals with nobody really sure how he would end up performing. Naturally, Williams showed us that his conference and regional races were just flukes as he finished 30th overall at Nationals to earn the first All-American honor of his career. When you compare his 2015 and 2016 seasons, the finishes he earned seemed to be the inverse of each other. In 2016, Williams had an excellent regular season and a great performance at Nationals. In 2015, his regular season was lacking and was made up for by his finishes at PAC's 12 (12th) and the West Regional Championships (3rd). If we can see Williams now combine the best of his two seasons into 2017, then expect the Washington State senior to get plenty of attention. #28 Philo Germano / Syracuse / Rs. Senior Philo Germano is a guy that every high school hopeful should be looking up to. The rising Syracuse senior entered this program as a walk-on who was given a chance by Coach Fox to prove himself. Since then, Germano has fought his way to the top of an elite cross country program and become one of their most important scorers. He's living proof that hard work pays off. In 2015, Syracuse sat at the top of the team rankings and were favored to win the NCAA title...if they could find someone to back up their lethal top three. That "someone" would be Philo Germano who had a breakout season when it mattered the most. The rising star finished 15th at ACC's, 15th at the Northeast Regional Championships, and (the shocker) 39th at the NCAA Championships. Not only did Germano become an All-American, but he also helped Syracuse lock down the national title. Skip to 2016 and my expectations for Germano were high. Could he match his magical breakout year in 2015, or would he just be another one-season wonder? As evidenced by his current ranking, I think it's pretty clear that this guy was not just some "one season wonder". Germano put together a slew of consistent races such as a 7th place finish at Panorama Farms, 28th place finish at Wisconsin, and a pair of 9th place finishes at ACC's and regionals. The progression we saw in 2015 just kept flowing into 2016... Germano would eventually finish his season with a respectable 49th place finish at Nationals. Sure, it wasn't All-American, but I don't think anyone would consider it a "bad" race for him. Much like Thomas Pollard, Germano never had a poor race in 2016. He stayed incredibly consistent and very reliable throughout the entire year which is what most D1 coaches want in a varsity scorer. If Germano can continue his consistency and break into the top five in some of these bigger races, then I'm sure I'll be able to find some room for him in the Top 20. #27 Cory Glines / Northern Arizona / Rs. Senior In 2017, the defending national champions will return a very accomplished and experienced squad. Leading that squad will be Cory Glines who has found outstanding success with the Lumberjacks after transferring from Michigan the summer before his sophomore year. Glines started off his 2016 season with two runner-up finishes at the Sycamore Invite and George Kyte Classic. It wouldn't be until Wisconsin that Glines flexed his fitness with a strong 20th place finish...It was arguably the greatest race of his career. As the regular season wrapped up, the NAU redshirt junior entered the postseason and continued to put up solid results with a 4th place finish at BIG Sky and an excellent 6th place finish at the Mountain Region Championships. Despite his great success throughout the season, Glines struggled at NCAA's and ended up placing 84th. It's crazy to think that even without him at his best, NAU was still able to comfortably secure the national title... He may not have performed well at NCAA's, but placing 6th in the Mountain region and 20th at Wisconsin is the kind of performances you would expect out of a Top 30 guy. This season, I am hoping that Glines can grab All-American at Nationals and even grab an invite win at some point this season. #26 Chartt Miller / Iona / Rs. Senior #25 Gilbert Kirui / Iona / Senior It's no coincidence that Kirui and Miller are ranked next to each other at 25 and 26. For the past few seasons, this pair has grown and thrived together while leading the Gaels to multiple championships. Kirui and Miller are guys that have had success prior to 2016. Two years ago, Kirui became an All-American by placing 20th at NCAA's. In that same season, Miller had a breakout race at Wisconsin by finishing 8th overall and 3rd at the Greater Louisville Classic. In 2016, the Iona duo displayed similar success, but to a lesser extent. Kirui earned bronze at Paul Short and later grabbed a 12th place finish at Wisconsin. Chartt Miller didn't race until the postseason, but ended up finishing 4th in the Northeast region. Yet, just like so many others, both individuals had an off-day at NCAA's with Kirui placing 87th overall and Miller placing 64th. When you look at their collective work over the past two years, Miller and Kirui have put together some outstanding performances at some of the biggest and best meets in the nation. With the exception of Kirui in 2015, NCAA's seems to be the biggest obstacle that they have yet to conquer. In their final year of eligibility, I'll be looking for Kirui to repeat as an All-American and for Miller to apply his 2015 success to the national championship. #24 Gilbert Kigen / Alabama / Junior Did Alabama just get the Edward Cheserek of the NJCAA? Kigen has been a star in JUCO and was easily one of the biggest transfer targets for universities around the nation. So just how good was Kigen? In his first two seasons of collegiate cross country, Kigen went undefeated in the six races he ran in (which included the 2016 NJCCA Championships). On the track, Kigen collected nine NJCCA titles which was just a fraction of his 31 career track wins. It's hard to accurately express just how good Kigen is because of the lack of attention the NJCCA gets. However, I am not exaggerating when I say that Alabama just got one of the best JUCO runners of all-time. With that in mind, we don't know how well Kigen will acclimate to the dramatic increase in competition. For that, I have to stay on the safer side and put him half-way through our rankings. #23 Rory Linkletter / BYU / Junior For years now, we have seen some of the top distance runners in the nation emerge from Ed Eyestone's program. Miles Batty, Jared Ward, Jason Witt, and Nico Montanez are just some of the incredible athletes that have found grand success with the Cougars. Now, as BYU preps for another season of cross country, Rory Linkletter will be viewed as "the guy" who could help lead this team to a podium finish (or better). Linkletter found his groove in 2016 with impressive performance at nearly every meet he ran in. The first race of his breakout season came at Panorama Farms where he put together a 9th place finish to help the Cougars pull off the win and upset the defending national champions (Syracuse). After winning a small tune-up meet at BYU, Linkletter shifted his focus to Wisconsin where he finished 22nd overall to validate his strong early-season start. As the team transitioned to the postseason, Linkletter stayed on the DL. The Calgary-born sophomore placed 4th at the West Coast Conference Championships and was sidelined for resting purposes at the Mountain Region Championships. It wouldn't be until Nationals that we saw Rory come back to racing. The sophomore executed his race plan to perfection and walked away as an All-American for the first time in his career. Of course, his success didn't stop after cross country. Once he entered the outdoor track season, he ran sub 13:50 for the 5k and sub 29 minutes for the 1ok. He would enter the 10k at the NCAA Outdoor Championships and shock the nation with a runner-up performance thanks to a huge kick in the last 400 meters of the race. Linkletter has all of the essentials needed to not only repeat as an All-American, but to improve upon that finish as well. He is clearly progressing and and his performances on the track show that he's learning to actually race, not just attempting time trials. That's pretty rare maturity for an underclassmen who had no previous championship experience prior the year before. In all honesty, there isn't a lot to dislike about Linkletter. He is someone who is almost definitely going to give you a solid performance and seems to be incredibly reliable. If he can pull off what he did in 2016, then he will always have a spot in our rankings. #22 Jonah Koech / UTEP / Junior One of the best young distance runners in the nation is UTEP's Jonah Koech. This kid can seemingly do everything from running a 1:46 800 to becoming an All-American in cross country. Is he in the argument for best range ever? It's certainly debatable. Koech is a tricky name to figure out. He has had so much success in 2015 and 2016 with top five finishes at some of the most elite meets in the nation such as Notre Dame, Pre-Nats, and the Mountain Region Championships. He even placed 11th at Nationals in 2015 as a true freshman. So why, despite all of his great success, is he only ranked at 22nd? At the end of the 2016 cross country season, Koech had the first legitimate bad race of his career. He finished 122nd overall and ended his season with more to prove. As the season shifted to indoors, I expected Koech to unleash a revenge campaign to make up for his race at Nationals. But that simply just didn't happen. Koech did qualify for indoor NCAA's, but you could tell he wasn't at the top of his game. He failed to make it out of the preliminaries in the mile and finished 11th overall. Things continued to regress during the outdoor season. His times simply did not get faster and he was finishing further and further back from the front. By the end of the season, Koech (at least based on the results) seemed gassed as he failed to make it out of the West Preliminary round to NCAA's. As I have mentioned before, I try not to consider track performance too much when creating my rankings. Still, Koech's regression seemed too important to not consider. Could his blunder at NCAA's in the fall have catalyzed a series of struggles? Of course, we still can't just ignore how good this kid has been during his two seasons of cross country. He has consistently been one of the best names to come out of the Mountain Region for the past two years. I will happily improve Koech's ranking in our Top 50 once I see that he is back to his old self and can still perform at the highest-level that we are used to seeing from him. If he does that, then the Top 10 isn't out of the picture... #21 Vincent Kiprop / Alabama / Junior I'll be honest, I don't know too much about the history of Division 2 distance running. However, what I do know is that Kiprop is one of the best NCAA Division 2 runners we've seen in a while and he only he competed at that level for two years! Just like JUCO stud Gilbert Kigen, Kiprop amassed a huge number of wins and national titles. During the 2016 cross country season, he went undefeated in the six races he competed in and earned himself the national title. On the track, Kiprop was just as good as he collected four national titles (two in the 5k, two in the 10k) and a silver medal in the 3k. There isn't much to say that hasn't already been said. Just like Gilbert Kigen, I'll be waiting to see how Kiprop adjusts to the new training and competition at Alabama. Transferring to any new program is difficult and not always a smooth transition. Luckily, Kiprop will be training with Alfred Chelanga who has found success since making his transition to the Division 1 level... #Top50 #recruits #gzatlin #ncaa #analysis
- XC Preseason Individual Rankings: #40-31
Feel free to check out our rankings from earlier in the week! As always, be sure to comment below what you like or don't like. #50 - 41 --- #30 - 21 #20 - 11 #10 - 1 Next set of 10 (#30-21) coming on Thursday! #40 Arsene Guillorel / Samford / Senior It's not too often that we talk about the French when discussing distance running, but Guillorel is a rare exception. The Samford senior has found his groove and is thriving under new head coach / former Texas Longhorn, Pat McGregor. Guillorel has been a strong regional contender ever since his sophomore year in 2015. Throughout that year, he never placed outside of the top five at any meet he ran at (prior to Nationals). During the postseason, Guillorel secured a runner-up finish in the South Regional Championships, but struggled at NCAA's where he placed 164th overall. Jump to 2016 and we continued to see more of the same out of the Samford Frenchman. The beginning of his season was a bit slow, but he eventually worked his way through the postseason and emerged with a much better National's performance with a finish of 57th overall. Guillorel later took to the track and began to refine his racing skills. Eventually, he would emerge from the Outdoor NCAA Track & Field Championships with a 4th place All-American finish in the 10,000 meters which complimented his new personal best of 28:51. The south isn't always super deep in regards to competition. However, there are still superstars lurking around every corner and Guillorel should consider himself as one of those guys now. If he can secure a few wins throughout 2017 and establish some consistency early on, then I would be willing to improve his spot in our rankings. #39 Mike Tate / Southern Utah / Rs. Senior For those of you who followed TSR this past outdoor track season, Mike Tate was a name that often came up in our articles. After soloing a 13:39 at the Stanford Invite to win his heat, Tate eventually threw down a 13:34 at Payton Jordan to validate his success from earlier in the season. Unfortunately, his season would end early as he failed to qualify out of regionals. Much like Burcham and Geberkidane, we never did see Mike Tate compete in 2016. It's probably safe to assume that he took a redshirt season and will be returning in 2017. Despite Tate's lack of recent cross country racing, his performances in 2015 combined with a huge breakout track season this past spring is enough to put him at #39 on our list. As a junior, the SUU Thunderbird ran in a variety of high-level meets such as Roy Griak, Notre Dame, and Pre-Nats. Throughout all of these races, Tate put together respectable finishes, but never had one defining performance. Nonetheless, Tate would begin to find success in the postseason with a runner-up finish at BIG Sky and a 13th place finish in a very deep Mountain region. Tate would end his season with a modest finish of 78th at NCAA's. I know I may be breaking my rule about the influence of track times on cross country, but sometimes breakout seasons like Tate's are too big to ignore. Running 13:34 is special and almost always leads to success in the fall. He has the experience, the consistency, and the track times to back up his ranking of being a Top 40 individual. If he can improve on those regular season performances (as well as NCAA's) then he will find himself at a better spot on this list later in the season. #38 Miguel Bautista / Texas Tech / Senior There may not be an individual in the NCAA who racks up top three finishes as quietly as Miguel Bautista does. In fact, that's all we saw Bautista do throughout the 2016 cross country season. Here are all of his finishes from last year... -Texas Tech Open: 2nd -Chile Pepper XC Festival: 3rd -Santa Clara Bronco Invite: 2nd -BIG 12 Championships: 2nd Not bad, right? But there's one glaring miss that you probably noticed pretty easily: Miguel Bautista did not run at Regionals or Nationals. Why is that? The answer is still unclear. However, what we do know is that Bautista upped his game in 2016 and fought hard for top finishes. These weren't super competitive meets, but they still required honest efforts. There isn't much to talk about with Bautista mainly because we don't know what happened to him after BIG 12's. There's no mention of Bautista's 2016 season on the Texas Tech cross country page and there is no DNF in the Mountain region results. I'll admit, I was struggling to try and find a proper spot for him in our rankings because of this lack of info. As we look ahead to the 2017 season, I'd like to see Bautista convert some of those runner-up finishes into wins and make it through the Mountain region and into Nationals. Doing so will help cement his spot in our Top 50. #37 Jacob Thomson / Kentucky / Rs. Senior In 2017, Thomson will enter final cross country seasons as an experienced veteran and one of the top returners in the Southeast region. He has made two appearances in the NCAA Cross Country Championships (as an individual) and will most likely make a third championship appearance this fall. Did I mention that he is also an All-American on the track? On the flip side, Thomson has never won a cross country invitational during his collegiate career despite racing at some of the smaller meets in the south. He also struggled at NCAA's in 2016 where he finished 78th overall, 34 spots worse than his 2015 finish (44th). Yes, Thomson has not been great at some of the bigger meets like Nationals (2016) and Pre-Nats (2015). However, he has still been incredibly consistent. Outside of NCAA's and Pre-Nats, Thomson has never had a finish worse than 10th in any cross country race he has been in since he came to Kentucky. What will Thomson need to do to improve his ranking? I'll be looking for that first career cross country win early in the season. I would also like to see a conference or regional title and a better finish at Nationals. If Thompson is able to accomplish two of those three goals, then I will happily better his spot. #36 Robert Brandt / UCLA* / Junior *Flotrack Has Confirmed That Robert Brandt Will Be Transferring To UCLA. For the past few years, we've seen Cal maneuver through a very difficult West region with limited pieces. Although their depth has lifted them through some of these larger meets, they have always had a front-runner leading the way and getting them to the Big Dance (NCAA's). Two years ago, that front-runner was Chris Walden. Now it's Robert Brandt. Throughout 2016, Brandt established a name for himself. After a runner-up finish at the San Francisco Invite, the sophomore Golden Bear shocked the nation with an incredible 3rd place finish at Notre Dame. In that race, Brandt would defeat some of the biggest and best names in the NCAA such as MJ Erb, Jonah Koech, Antibahs Kosgei, and many more... He would also put together very solid performance at Pre-Nats where he placed 25th overall. Brandt's first "less than stellar" performance came at PAC 12's where he finished 21st. It was by no means an awful performance, but it certainly wasn't his best. Luckily, Brandt would rebound at the West Regional Championships which held a much deeper and much stronger field. The Cal sophomore finished 12th overall and helped catapult the Golden Bears into NCAA's. His success, however, was short lived. Like so many other underclassmen, Brandt struggled at Nationals and finished 109th overall. Every year, it's inevitable that teams lose a major low-stick. Trying to find a replacement is difficult and not always a given to happen. But in 2016, we saw Robert Brandt step in to that low-stick role and thrive. With a year of big meet experience now under his belt, I'll be looking for Brandt to improve on those 2016 finishes and grab an All-American spot at NCAA's. #35 Ben Flanagan / Michigan / Rs. Senior If you have a chance to watch Flotrack's "FloFilms" I suggest you give their documentary about Michigan a try. The two-part series gives an excellent, in-depth look at Big Blue's contagious positive culture which eventually led to a BIG 10 title in 2015. One of the biggest contributors to that culture, at least from a viewer's perspective, was Ben Flanagan. His personality was infectious and it was clearly well received throughout that team. Unfortunately, we never got see Flanagan race in 2016 after the Wolverines decided to use a redshirt season on him to preserve his eligibility. Yet, it's what the Ontario native did prior to 2016 that really impressed me. In his three seasons of competition leading up to 2017, Flanagan has put together some outstanding numbers throughout his career (especially in the postseason). His past three finishes at BIG 10's have been 12th (2013), 13th (2014), and 8th (2015). At Great Lakes, his finishes have been 10th (2014) and 11th (2015). Flanagan has also seen a progression in his performances at Wisconsin. He earned his best finish there in 2015 by placing 29th overall. Yet, just like so many others, Flanagan can't seem to wrangle the monster that is NCAA's with his best finish "only" being 64th (in 2014). There's not a lot of complexity with Flanagan in regards to his ranking. I liked placing him at the 35th spot because of his outstanding experience and his solid resume in the postseason. If he wants to improve his position on our list, then I'll simply need to see that he's healthy, back to regular fitness, and is capable of becoming an All-American. #34 Brian Barraza / Houston / Rs. Senior Yes, we do have another 2016 redshirt in our rankings. Yes, it will be our last one. No, I will not stop answering these imaginary questions. Despite redshirting the 2016 cross country season, we still saw Barraza travel with the Houston team and compete unattached at a few meets. In fact, Barraza even got a win at the Texas A&M Invite over Kentucky's Jacob Thomson. Before 2016, Barraza was a star that dominated the southern portion of the U.S. during cross country season. In 2015, he secured two regular season wins, finished 25th at Pre-Nats, took the South Central Regional title, and placed 60th at NCAA's. Come back to 2016 and you could see that his fitness was only improving based on his track performances. During the winter, Barraza became an All-American in the 3k while also joining the sub-four minute club. He later ran a personal best time of 8:32 in the steeplechase during the spring (unattached). His steeplechase time is a big indicator as to what could expect from him in 2017. The results and stats may be difficult to find since he redshirted two of his three seasons, but Barraza is only getting faster and stronger. If continues to get wins and becomes an All-American in the fall, expect his ranking to improve. #33 Conor Lundy / Princeton / Sophomore One of the most exciting stories of 2016 was the emergence of true freshman Conor Lundy. In just two races, the Princeton rookie ignited a spark throughout an Ivy League that was mourning the graduation of their star representative, Thomas Awad. After a third place finish at the HYP tri-meet (Harvard/Yale/Princeton), Lundy toed the line at Wisconsin with no expectations and no pressure. That, of course, all changed when he crossed the line in 19th overall. Lundy had now caught the attention of the entire NCAA and they were put on notice. After Wisconsin, Princeton readied themselves for the postseason where Lundy was a favorite to win the Heps title. Yet, it was experience that prevailed as James Randon ended up with the title and Lundy settled for bronze (while Princeton teammate William Paulson earned silver). Lundy would see another bronze medal at the Mid-Atlantic Regional Championships where he lost to only Scott Carpenter and the eventual NCAA champion (Patrick Tiernan). It wouldn't be until Nationals that Lundy had his first poor race of the season. The Princeton frosh may have ended 2016 with a 94th place finish at Nationals, but he set a new standard for what top division one programs should expect out of elite high school recruits like himself. Quite honestly, I don't need Lundy to do much more. If anything, I am banking on his youth and potential upside. The kid has already shown that he'll be a headache for his opponents throughout the NCAA which makes me eager to watch him battle for wins in 2017. #32 Thomas Pollard / Iowa State / Rs. Sophomore Thomas Pollard did not get the recognition he deserved in 2016. Maybe it's because he was so young. Maybe it's because he was on such a deep squad. Whatever the reason was, make sure you don't forget this name when the 2017 season begins. Throughout the entirety of last fall, Pollard gave the Cyclones consistently strong performances. After a respectable 18th place finish at Roy Griak, we saw the redshirt freshman unleash a 25th place finish at Wisconsin and enter the postseason with an abundance of confidence. Sure enough, Pollard showed us that he was the real deal with a 4th place finish at BIG 12's and an 8th place finish at the Midwest Regional Championships. Now I know what you're thinking... "All of this great success, but then he struggles at Nationals, right?" Wrong. Pollard ended his season with an admirable 45th place finish at Nationals. He may not have been an All-American, but being five spots away from that honor as a redshirt freshman in your first ever race at NCAA's is not something that we should be taking lightly. Pollard certainly excited fans in his very first season of cross country. He showed me that he could compete with the best, improve throughout the season, stay consistent, and minimize any poor racing. If he can continue to do that in 2017, then I will look favorably at him in future rankings. #31 Aaron Baumgarten / Michigan / Rs. Senior Throughout 2016, one of the more exciting runners in the BIG 10/Great Lakes region was Aaron Baumgarten. With Ben Flanagan not in the picture for 2016, Baumgarten assumed the role of being Michigan's ace at some of the biggest meets around the nation. The rising senior was first spotted at Roy Griak where he ran a very gutsy race and was rewarded with 3rd place. Baumgarten later capitalized on his fitness at Pre-Nats with an 8th place finish to defeat established distance stars like Alex George, Jack Bruce, Lawrence Kipkoech, Dillon Maggard, Evan Stifel, and the entire Colorado Buffalo squad (to name a few). BIG 10's eventually rolled around and the Michigan Wolverine put together another solid performance by placing 6th overall. However, it was at the Great Lakes Regional Championship where we saw Baumgarten get upset by a variety of names he had defeated earlier in the season (such as Makepeace and Stifel). Baumgarten would finish 10th overall and end his season as the 3rd man out of Nationals. Despite the disappointing finish to his 2016 season, Baumgarten still solidified his spot among the best in the NCAA. He never finished outside of 10th place throughout the entire season which is incredibly difficult to do when you are racing at such high level meets like Roy Griak and Pre-Nats. At the same time, he failed to qualify for Nationals and his past two performances at the NCAA Championships have been lack-luster at best (206th in 2014, 194th in 2015). I'm a fan of Baumgarten and I am rooting for him to succeed in 2017. If he can pick up where he left off last season, then I will have no trouble giving him a better ranking in October and November. #rankings #ncaa #gzatlin #analysis #Top50
- XC Preseason Individual Rankings: #50-41
Feel free to check out our rankings from earlier in the week! As always, be sure to comment below what you like or don't like. --- #40 - 31 #30 - 21 #20 - 11 #10 - 1 Next set of 10 (#30-21) coming on Thursday! #50 Jeff Thies / Portland / Rs. Senior Throughout the creation of our rankings, Thies was constantly on and off the list. However, he was a big reason why Portland succeeded in 2016 and his performances on the track indicate that his fitness is only improving. For that, he makes the rankings at #50. Last year, we saw Thies get off to a hot start with an impressive 5th place finish at Roy Griak where he defeated distance stars like Alex Short, Ferdinand Edman, Yusuke Uchikoshi, and Sherod Hardt. However, his Wisconsin performance left something to be desired as he crossed the line in 49th place. After finishing 8th in the West Coast Conference Championships, Thies stepped up to the plate with a very solid 15th place finish at the West Regional Championships. Thies' performance was enough to push Portland to second overall and secure his team an auto-bid spot to NCAA's. The Portland Pilot would finish his season with a 70th place finish at Nationals. It was a respectable run, but much like Wisconsin it left spectators like myself wanting more. Track results aren't always a great indicator of how someone will perform during cross country, but Thies clearly hit a new level of fitness this past spring with significant improvements in the 1500 (both strategically and time-wise). His clear improvement in the spring mixed with strong performances at Roy Griak and Regionals is enough to get Thies into our rankings. If Thies can improve his consistency as well as his performances at big meets like Wisconsin and Nationals, then expect him to better his spot on our list throughout 2017. #49 Ryan Robinson / Michigan State / Junior One of the most underrated distance runners in the NCAA is Ryan Robinson. The Michigan State junior had a breakout season in 2016 and was a huge reason why the Spartans succeeded throughout last fall. Robinson first caught my attention at Roy Griak where he placed 4th overall to defeat some of the biggest and best names in the NCAA. It would be his last regular season invitational of 2016. Once the post-season began, we saw Robinson continue his strong performances with an 11th place finish at BIG 10's and a 13th place finish at the Great Lakes Regional Championships. Unfortunately, his lack of experience caught up to him at NCAA's where he struggled to have an impact and faltered to 209th overall... Robinson has proven that he can be a consistent force in the NCAA. He is one of the top returners on a conference / regional level and will benefit from having championship experience under his belt. In order for him to improve in our rankings, I would like to see him compete in more regular season meets and better his finish at NCAA's by a considerable margin. #48 Andrew Ronoh / Arkansas / Junior In 2016, Andrew Ronoh was one of the most highly anticipated transfers of the year. As a freshman in JUCO, Ronoh became one of the hottest transfer targets for D1 coaches around the nation. He never finished lower than 2nd during cross country and became a NJCAA champion in the 10k during outdoor track. Ronoh's eventual transfer to Arkansas made the Razorbacks a threat for the podium (and some would argue the team title). It took a while for us to first see Andrew Ronoh run at the division one level. In fact, Ronoh never competed in any regular season invitationals throughout the 2016 cross country season. His first race would come at SEC's where he finished a respectable 6th place overall. He later followed up that performance with a runner-up finish at the South Central Regional Championships. However, the strategy throughout that race was clearly tactical and the team score seemed to be more important than the individual race. Ronoh eventually finished his season by toeing the line at Nationals and placing 67th overall. Arkansas failed to make the podium after finishing 5th as a team. When looking at TFRRS profiles, there isn't a lot of information on Ronoh. It's difficult to rank someone who hasn't run in a regular season meet, was not very active throughout the track seasons, and competes in one of the weaker regions in the NCAA. However, I think we can still draw the conclusion that Ronoh is a valuable asset to his squad and that he can race with some of the best southern distance runners in the nation. I may be under-ranking Ronoh, but I think it's fair that we wait and see what else he can do before he makes any jumps in our Top 50. #47 Jacob Burcham / Oklahoma / Rs. Senior The biggest question mark throughout our entire Top 50 is Jacob Burcham. As a junior, the Oklahoma Sooner had a huge year in 2015, especially throughout cross country. During that season, Burcham was 11th at the Wisconsin Invite and earned runner-up finishes at both BIG 12's and Midwest Regionals. His eventual 16th place finish at NCAA's made him a candidate for breakout runner of the year. Expectations were incredibly high for Burcham in 2016 and some even thought he could be a threat for a top five finish at NCAA's. However, we never actually saw Burcham step to the start line. The star from 2015 was absent from the 2016 season, which left many fans scratching their heads and wondering why. The Oklahoma XC roster has Burcham listed as a senior for 2016-2017 (despite only running three seasons of XC). If that is the case, then Burcham should technically be out of eligibility. Having said that, it is probably safe to assume that the Oklahoma star redshirted 2016 and has one more season of eligibility left for this season. If Burcham does have another season of eligibility, then there is a good chance that we see him on the dirt and grass once more. Burcham is one of the best in the NCAA and there are very few arguments against that statement. Yet, until we know the definite status of his eligibility, then this is the best ranking I'm willing to give him. #46 Andy Trouard / Northern Arizona / Rs. Senior It was a wild 2016-2017 academic year for Trouard who became a national champion, a cross country All-American, and a sub-four minute miler. He even got a chance to compete in the USATF Championships just a few weeks ago. He may be one of the most experienced individuals in the NCAA. Despite his great all-around success, Trouard doesn't necessarily have the cross country resume that others on this list do. His 2016 performances included a 44th place finish at Wisconsin, a 5th place finish at BIG Sky, and a 36th place finish at the Mountain Region Championships. All of those performances are respectable, but they aren't quite Top 50 worthy. However, once he toed the line at Nationals, Trouard unleashed a clutch performance and finished 37th overall to earn his first ever All-American honor. His performance was arguably one of the most important finishes of the meet in regards to the team title. With so many conflicting performances, it's difficult to say where exactly Trouard belongs on this list. How much should his All-American finish play into his ranking? What about his recent entrance into the sub-four minute club? What about his overall experience? Not everyone weighs these factors equally. While some may argue that there are other individuals who deserve his spot, I'm willing to hold off and wait to see how he performs. There are too many good aspects about Trouard to leave him off this list. However, with that in mind, my expectations for him will be high and I will be looking for him to deliver throughout 2017. #45 Euan Makepeace / Butler / Rs. Sophomore I am a big fan of Euan Makepeace. This kid has all of the necessary components to become the next distance running star in the NCAA. He will need time to develop, but he is certainly trending in the right direction. At the beginning of the 2016 season, Makepeace placed 4th at the Butler XC Open and later finished 5th against a sneaky good field at the Commodore Classic in Tennessee. However, a larger and stronger group of entries at Pre-Nats was enough to expose the inexperience of the redshirt freshman as he finished 74th overall. Luckily, Makepeace would eventually bounce back and find his groove for the postseason. At BIG East's, the Butler Bulldog took down veterans like Julian Oakley, Amos Bartelsmeyer, Michael Clevenger, and Hugh Armstrong to finish 3rd overall. He later used his new-found momentum to place 9th in a very deep Great Lakes region. Unfortunately, 9th place was two spots short of an individual qualifying spot to Nationals and Makepeace's first cross country season had come to an end. He may not have qualified for Nationals in cross country, but Makepeace made up for that shortcoming with a NCAA qualifying performance this past spring in the 5000 meters. His impressive display of range combined with his youth makes him an exciting future prospect that could have even bigger breakout performances in 2017. #44 Evan Stifel / Ohio State / Senior If you're looking for a sleeper pick to breakout in 2017, Evan Stifel might be your guy. The rising senior has shown some steady improvement over the past two years and has slowly become one of the top cross country runners in the BIG 10. Stifel's 2016 season started at the Commodore Classic where he finished a respectable, but unexciting 10th place overall. It wouldn't be until Pre-Nats where we would see him have his first big race of the season with a 23rd place finish. Stifel continued to get better throughout the postseason with a 7th place finish at BIG 10's and an 8th place finish at the Great Lakes Regional Championship. Yet, as fate would have it, Stifel barely missed qualifying for NCAA's and finished his cross country season as the first man out of Nationals. Stifel may have received the short-end of the stick last season, but he will enter 2017 as the third best returner in both the BIG 10 and the Great Lakes region. Not only is this a guy who can make it to Nationals, but he will almost definitely be in the hunt for an All-American spot. Keep an eye out for this guy when championship season comes around. #43 Cerake Geberkidane / Oklahoma State / Rs. Junior For fans that just started following NCAA distance running, Geberkidane may be an unrecognizable name. That's because the rising redshirt junior sustained a long-term injury that held him out of not only the 2016 cross country season, but the ensuing indoor and outdoor track seasons as well. Let's rewind to the 2015 cross country season where Geberkidane had a breakout year. As a sophomore, the Oklahoma State Cowboy took two early season wins at the Cowboy Jamboree and the Alabama Crimson Classic. Once in the post-season, he secured bronze at both BIG 12's and the Midwest Regional Championships. However, his performance at Nationals (where he placed 125th overall) was the only flaw in what was otherwise a brilliant cross country season. Geberkidane is one of the best names in the BIG 12 and the Midwest region. Should he return to the fitness level we saw in 2015, then there is a very good chance that he could fight for the conference and regional titles. However, his lack of races due to a "long-term injury" is concerning and still leaves plenty of questions to be answered. Once I see that he is racing and healthy, expect Cerake to better his spot on our list. #42 Emmanuel Rotich / Tulane / Junior Emmanuel Rotich is a difficult name to place on this list mainly because of his meet selection throughout 2016. The Tulane program opted to compete in smaller races throughout the 2016 season which didn't give us the best gauge of just how good Rotich was. Despite not racing in many high-profile meets, Rotich still racked up multiple wins during the 2016 season. Leading up to Nationals, Rotich never placed outside of the top three in any meet he competed in. In fact, Rotich even secured the South Central individual crown while Ole Miss and Arkansas battled for positioning in pursuit of the team title. However, Rotich didn't quite meet expectations at NCAA's after placing 85th overall. Prior to Nationals, Rotich had only competed in one field that had more than 20 teams (the Memphis Twilight Classic which had 25). His big-meet experience is a touch worrisome, but Rotich has still proven that he can get wins and challenge for top finishes. I also like the fact that Rotich found success in the steeplechase this past outdoor track season. In my mind, fitness in the steeplechase is the closest equivalent to fitness during cross country. If Rotich can get more big meet experience and capitalize on his success from the spring, then don't be surprised to see him crack the top 30 names in our rankings. #41 Gabe Arias-Sheridan / St. Mary's (Cal) / Senior If we're being honest, I had never heard or read about Arias-Sheridan prior to this year's rankings. However, upon a closer inspection of his finishes, it became apparent to me that this is a guy who deserves some recognition and respect. After a few early season rust-busters and a 5th place finish at the Stanford Invite, the St. Mary's Gael found success at the Santa Clara Bronco Invite as he secured the win by defeating the Texas Tech duo of Miguel Bautista and Benard Keter as well as UCLA's eventual All-American, Ferdinand Edman. It would be the last race before his postseason campaign began. After a forgettable 10th place finish at the West Coast Conference Championships, Arias-Sheridan had the best race of his career with a 7th place finish at the West Regional Championships. His breakout performance would be enough to qualify him for Nationals where he would gain crucial big-meet experience. Of course, it would have been easy to dismiss his regional performance as just a fluke. That's why it was particularly notable when Arias-Sheridan backed up his performance from West Regionals with a 47th place finish at NCAA's, which was only 7 spots away from All-American. There isn't a whole lot I need in order to move Arias-Sheridan to a better position in our rankings. If he can continue to get wins, defeat other names in the Top 50, and improve on his finishes from last year, then there is no reason why he can't be a top 30 individual by the end of this season. #rankings #Top50 #analysis #ncaa
- XC Top 50 Individuals Preview
Ever since The Stride Report launched three and half months ago, there has been a tab in the rankings section labeled XC Top 25 Teams with a simple caption that says "Coming This July". Now July is finally here and we can finally begin our rankings! Sort of. Due to certain teams not yet having published rosters for 2017, we have decided to switch our dates for the Rankings. Instead of the XC Top 25 Teams, we will be doing the XC Top 50 Individuals starting this Sunday! The rankings will come out in groups of 10, leaving us with five total days of our rankings. Commonly Asked Questions About The Rankings "What do you base these rankings on?" These rankings are based on a variety of factors such as experience, consistency, performances at big meets, past performances, improvement, and potential. Occasionally, track times do play a role when ranking certain individuals. However, I typically try to emphasize that track and cross country are two very different sports. Great track times do not always equal great cross country performances. "Will you be updating these rankings throughout the season? If so, how often?" I will be updating these rankings every week based on new results. There are some weeks where there are very few significant cross country meets happening. These weeks typically result in no change to the rankings. If you include the weeks without change, as well as the preseason rankings, there are approximately 11 to 12 weekly rankings. "Why is Person A ranked ahead of Person B, even though Person B beat Person A in a race?" As I mentioned in the first question, these rankings are based on multiple races and a variety of different factors. Collectively, we look at the entire season and base our rankings off of recent trends shown by an individual. Just because someone had one bad race does not mean they should kicked off the list entirely. There is (almost) always a chance at redemption. "My favorite runner (didn't compete / had a great race) this past weekend, but he moved backwards in the rankings. Why is that?" Most of the time, I try to reward athletes in the rankings for having a great race. Unfortunately for them, there are a lot of great athletes that are constantly improving. In this scenario, if someone has moved back in the rankings, it is simply because there isn't enough room at the top. Not all regressions in the rankings are intended to be negative. JUST MISS / HONORABLE MENTIONS (in no order) Andrew Marston / Villanova / Rs. Sophomore In 2016, Marston raced seven times and placed outside of the top 10 only twice. Once at the Penn State Open (13th) and once at NCAA's (146th). Marston has clearly learned how to navigate a smaller field of competitors. If he can show improvement at larger venues like the ones mentioned above, then don't be surprised to see him make it on to the Top 50 this season... Colby Gilbert / Washington / Rs. Senior It's tough to exactly gauge what Gilbert is capable of doing in cross country. As a sophomore in 2015, Gilbert became an All-American after not racing in a regular season invitational for the entirety of the season. Unfortunately, 2016 did not show the same success. After two early wins and a top five finish at the Washington Invite, Gilbert struggled at big meets like Wisconsin, PAC 12's, and West Regionals. He failed to qualify for Nationals at both the individual and team levels. Which Colby Gilbert will we see in 2017? He had great success this past indoor track season, but then disappeared during outdoor track. The inconsistency leaves too many questions for him to be on the list at the moment. Iliass Aouani / Syracuse / Junior If there was a #51 on the list, it would most likely go to Iliass Aouani. Before arriving to Syracuse in 2016, Aouani had great success at Lamar as he became a southern distance running star. Although he still saw success at Syracuse with a 6th place finish at ACC's and a 7th place finish at Northeast Regionals, Aouani struggled with consistency. He finished 86th at Wisconsin and 126th at NCAA's. Lachlan Cook / Virginia / Sophomore The ACC freshman of the year was a key reason why the Virginia Cavaliers were able to stay competitive in 2016 despite losing Henry Wynne. Cook had his first breakout performance at the Penn State Open where he was 7th overall. An 11th and 12th place finish at ACC's and Southeast regionals showed just how good this kid could be in the future. Cook was awfully close to making the list, but finishing 103rd at NCAA's shows that he still needs to gain experience on the big stage. In addition to NCAA's, the ACC and Southeast region weren't quite as strong as they have been in the past. I would like to see if he can replicate his performances at those meets in 2017. Grant Fischer / Colorado State / Rs. Senior It's tough to exactly pin-point a specific breakout performance for Fischer last fall. Overall he was very consistent and had respectable finishes at the biggest meets around the country (he placed 30th at Wisconsin). His steady improvement throughout the past two track seasons has led me to believe that this will be a guy capable of breaking into the Top 50. Michael Ward / Bradley / Rs. Senior One of the most under-appreciated programs in NCAA D1 XC is Bradley University. The Braves have been on the rise for the past two years and they have been led by their ace, Michael Ward. Ward and his teammates have entered some of the toughest meets that the nation has to offer and Ward has stepped up every time without fail. Ward placed 21st at Norte Dame, 16th at Pre Nats, was runner-up to Reed Fischer at his conference championship, and finished 9th in an underrated Midwest Region. He eventually capped off his season by placing 71st in his first-ever National Championship. It doesn't matter where he's running, he will show up and contend. If it's not already obvious, I am a big fan of Michael Ward. He represents all of the underdogs who deserve some recognition. However, if Ward wants to get into our Top 50, he'll need to lower some of those finishes and defeat some of the better-known names in the NCAA. Jonathan Harper / BYU / Senior With an 18th place finish at Wisconsin, Harper should be in the Top 50 conversation. However, aside from Wisconsin, BYU didn't face any truly difficult competition until Regionals and Nationals. After a solid, but average 20th place finish in the Mountain Region, Harper placed 101st at NCAA's leaving fans like myself looking for more. Chase Weaverling / Virginia / Senior In 2015, Chase Weaverling steadily improved, became a competitive name in a very strong ACC field, and was just a few spots shy of All-American in his first National Championship performance. In 2016, he was not able to improve upon those performances. He also struggled at the NCAA meet where he placed 181st overall. It's difficult to know which way Weaverling is trending and whether or not we should expect an improvement out of him this season. I need to see some consistent performances as well as some improvement before I can put him in the Top 50. Zach Perrin / Colorado / Senior After a runner-up performance at the Rocky Mountain Shootout and an odd pack-running exercise at Pre Nats, Perrin threw down the best performance of his cross country career by placing 4th overall at PAC 12's and helping Colorado secure the conference title (where they were underdogs). Yet, as so many do, Perrin struggled to run well at Nationals with a sub-par finish of 125th overall. It may have been a fluke, but without a truly significant performance at Pre Nats or Regionals, I'm still looking for Perrin to do more. Thomas Ratcliffe / Stanford / Rs. Freshman In his first cross country race ever, Ratcliffe ran 23:17 at the Stanford Invite, making him the 5th fastest individual in meet history. The four others ahead of him? Sean McGorty, Chris Derrick, Joe Rosa, and Maksim Korolev. That is some good company to be in. Ratcliffe also put up an excellent 8th place finish at PAC 12's which continued to excite fans about this potential. Despite two great performances, Ratcliffe is not shown in the results for Regionals nor Nationals. Why did Coach Milt not run him? Did he get hurt? I may not be a big fan of using track times to gauge cross country fitness, but Ratcliffe's 7:53 3k this past winter (unattached) tells me that he's right on track to follow in Grant Fisher's footsteps. It's easy to get excited about Ratcliffe when you hear about all that he has done. However, this is a guy who has yet to race at Regionals and Nationals. He could very easily make the Top 50 this season (and I think he will), but I'm going to hold out on doing so until I see his name at the top of the results. *EDITORS NOTE: The initial publishing of this article incorrectly stated that Thomas Ratcliffe did not run attached last cross country season. That has since been edited. Thank you to the reader who corrected our mistake! #rankings #ncaa #Top50 #gzatlin #preview
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