Indiana vs Tennessee Duals 800 / Mile Jordan Huntoon went to work this past weekend and walked away with two golds. The Indiana senior recorded times of 1:52.07 and 4:22.63 to win both events. The times may not be incredibly fast, but securing wins is often an underrated stat in the early portion of the season. Watch for Huntoon to progress as we go throughout January and February. 3000 We were treated to a nice matchup this past weekend as Tennessee's Zach Long battled with Indiana's Joseph Murphy. In the end, Long would barely sneak out the win in a time of 8:11.06 while Murphy was 8:11.13. After a breakout steeplechase performance last spring season, don't be surprised if you see Murphy dropping more and more time. With that in mind, we have to give Long some props for beating an 8:47 steeplechaser. There are lot of a positives to take away for both of these individuals. Placing 3rd overall was Tennessee's Brad Swiney in a time of 8:16. Wager Invite 800 Dylan Capwell. For some, that name might sound familiar. For others, it probably doesn't. Throughout 2015 and 2016, we saw Capwell dominate the NCAA 800 scene with a personal best of 1:46.70 and two All-American finishes indoors (2nd in 2015 and 8th in 2016). Unfortunately, the spring track seasons of 2016 and 2017 were underwhelming for the Monmouth star. Capwell would compete in only a handful of races in those two seasons and essentially drop off the radar in an event that was already crowded with talent. Now, Capwell is looking to make a return in 2018. After a 2:24 1k and 1:18 600 in early December, the Monmouth senior returned to the 800 this past weekend where he secured a win over two New Zealanders with a time of 1:52. It may not be that special of a time, but it does show that Capwell is setting up nicely for a comeback campaign. Akron PV Convention 800 / Mile We were treated to a strong double by Akron's Garrett Crichlow this past weekend. The senior placed 1st in the mile with a 4:10 and doubled back in the 800 with a time of 1:55.31 to place 2nd. Dartmouth Relays Mile Dartmouth's Reed Horton and Northeastern's Marc Reinas went head-to-head in the mile this past weekend with Horton coming away with the win. When you factor in the flat-track conversion, Horton secured a time of 4:11.81 while Reinas settled for a time of 4:15.83. 3000 In one of the deeper events of the weekend, we saw four men dip under the 8:30 mark. Dartmouth's Henry Raymond led the way with a time of 8:27.20 while Romano (Northeastern), Laverty (Dartmouth), and Shafer (Dartmouth) were all at 8:29. Clemson Orange & Purple Invite 800 The 800 field was headlined by some of Atlanta Track Club's best. Edward Kemboi took the win in 1:49.15 while teammate Brandon Lasater was close behind in 1:49.18. Brandon Hazouri was 3rd in 1:50.34. The top collegiate, Humberto Freire, would finish in 4th with a time of 1:53.33. 1000 It was the performance of the weekend! Clemson junior John Lewis delivered a huge time of 2:21.96. The time isn't as fast as Dumford's 2:21.45, but the way Lewis ran that time was incredibly impressive. With consistent splits of 28 mid, you would have thought that his race was a controlled effort. This guy is for real. Don't sleep on the damage he could do in late February and March. We should also note that Georgia's Jeramey Hampton finished 2nd in this race with a time of 2:25.88, a personal best. Mile Georgia's Henry Dwyer took the win in a time of 4:13 while unattached Jacob Olson was runner-up in 4:15. 3000 Florida State freshman Caleb Pottorff made a strong season debut with a convincing win in a time of 8:24. He may not have a huge impact this year, but he could be a potential sophomore star in the making. Navy vs Princeton 800 Princeton frosh Sam Ellis took the win in a time of 1:52 while Navy's Justin Hyytinen was 2nd in 1:53. 1000 Noah Kauppila, the veteran from Princeton, threw down a strong time of 2:25 to take the win. Over the past few track seasons, we have seen Kauppila act as a leader of this team in the mid-distances. In his final year of eligibility, don't be surprised to see Kauppila drop some strong times and end his collegiate career with a bang. Mile Navy's Gabriel Collison and Jacob Shewbert went 1-2 this past weekend with times of 4:11 and 4:12. 3000 Sophomore Gannon Willcutts (Princeton) secured the win in a time of 8:22. Jake Brophy and Cory Donley (both of Navy) rounded out the top three with times of 8:25 and 8:27, respectively. #analysis #gzatlin #weekendreview #indoortrack #recap

One of the events that typically goes unmentioned in the early portion of the indoor track season is the DMR. It's so early that most teams are focused on getting their individuals NCAA qualifying times in open events while other programs aren't even sure who would make it onto their "A" relay. There are plenty of teams that we can already assume will pursue the DMR. Oregon, Indiana, Stanford, Ole Miss, and Virginia Tech will act as the usual suspects in this event, especially with a heavy portion of their relays returning from last year (although VT may field a "B" relay that is still capable of finishing towards the top like last year). Yet, for other programs, there is a bit of uncertainty. Whether they realize it or not, some of these teams may have the necessary pieces needed to put together a strong Distance Medley Relay. Still, there are plenty of other factors (such as open events) that they'll also have to consider. If you're looking for a sleeper pick to emerge in the DMR, you might want to look at the Texas Longhorns. At first glance, they may not seem like a team that could do a lot of damage. The overall squad is young and they haven't really pursued the DMR since Leo Manzano was on the team. Of course, there is a lot of upside about this program that people seem to forget about. First off, Alex Rogers is a stud. The Texas veteran has eligibility as a junior this indoor season and owns personal bests of 3:40 in the 1500 and 1:48 in the 800. He has enough speed to contend with some of the best runners in the nation which gives him the potential to be one of the best 1200 legs in the NCAA this year. At same time, he could also end up as the anchor and hammer it home if the race becomes tactical. What makes Rogers so dangerous is that he and Sam Worley are interchangeable at the 1200 and Mile legs. A 4-flat miler in high school with a 1:48 PR, Worley could leave the Longhorns with the flexibility to experiment in certain legs of the relay. We also have to remember that Worley finished his cross country season as a DNF at the South Central Regional Championships and DNS at Nationals. His health may be the biggest factor to consider in all of this. The Longhorns may not have a star 800 leg capable of clipping off 1:48's or faster, but they would realistically need someone who can hit around 1:50 to stay competitive. This is where things become a little iffy for Texas as Jake McConnell's 1:52 and 2:26 (1k) PR's seem to be the Longhorn's greatest highlights in the mid distances. Those times are by no means bad, but McConnell will need to improve his reliability as a legitimate 800 leg if Texas wants a qualifying spot to NCAA's. There are plenty of other teams like Texas that have strong potential in the 1200 and mile legs, but may hit a barrier when it comes to the 800. One of those teams is the Iona Gaels , who boasts a strong power duo of Chartt Miller and Liam Dee. With personal bests of 3:43 and 4:01 mile (4:00.99), Chartt Miller may seem like the perfect candidate for the 1500. In the past few years, Miller has thrived off of tactical races and is very familiar with racing some of the best in the nation. In a crowded 1200 field that is constantly jockeying for position, his big-race experience and ability to adjust mid-race may prove to be incredibly value. Naturally, that would leave the door open for 3:58 man Liam Dee who qualified for NCAA's in the final meet of last year's season and ended up becoming an All-American. With a history of consistency padding his resume, Dee would be a sneaky good choice to anchor Iona's DMR. However, the issue of the 800 (and even the 400) is something that should still be considered. Throughout the entirety of the 2017 track seasons (both indoor and outdoor), the Gaels had no one break 51 seconds in the 400 or 1:53 in the 800. Those times, at the very least, need to be 48 and 1:50 if Iona wants a shot to make it to Nationals. The good news is that guys like Edward Hayfron and Danny Galvin are no longer freshmen and could see a significant jump in their overall performances with a year of collegiate competition under their belt. We could also see more from Robert Kirsty, a rising senior who may be able to dip closer to the 50 second barrier. If the Gaels are able to focus and refine those areas in the middle distances, then this is a squad that could have a very legitimate shot at making it to NCAA's. Unfortunately, the emphasis on long distance within this group could push the possibility of a DMR out of the picture for Iona as events like the Mile, 3k, and 5k begin to take priority. As we transition from Texas and Iona, a team like the Washington Huskies may spark your interest. The dynamic of this roster is unconventional, but it could set up for a surprisingly strong D-Med. Colby Gilbert is a true stud and is arguably one of the best distance runners in the nation when it comes to indoor track. Maybe that's because he gets so many opportunities to run on his home track (which is 300m instead of 200m). Nonetheless, his 3:58 doesn't do him justice. If needed, I'm a believer that Gilbert could hit 3:57 or maybe even faster under perfect circumstances. The Huskies tried to put him on the 1200 of the DMR last year and ended up with a time of 9:51. I'm not sold on Gilbert being placed anywhere other than the mile leg. A good day for him and an average day for Andrew Gardner could mean as much as a 10 to 12 second difference for the overall relay. This is not to say that Andrew Gardner is a poor runner. If anything, his PR of 4:06 could make him a strong candidate for the 1200 leg. However, a better option might be Jonathan Stevens who boats personal bests of 3:43 in the 1500 and 2:27 in the 1k. Meanwhile, the 800 is probably in good hands. Connor Morello ran 1:50 (twice) as a freshman last year which means that it wouldn't be surprising if he dipped into the 1:48-1:49 range this season. Is that optimistic? Yes. Is it unrealistic? Hardly. In addition to Morello, don't forget that Mason Fletcher is also returning for his senior season. Fletcher was able to add a PR of 1:50 to resume last spring and could be a potential factor in their relay formula. The veterans on this Washington squad are, without a doubt, some of the more reliable and consistent collegiate distance runners on the west coast. What really captures my interest, however, is the recruiting class that Coach Metcalf has brought in. Isaac Green owns personal bests of 1:52 and 4:05 while Talon Hull is close behind with times of 1:53 and 4:08. Devan Kirk is a key addition as well with PR's of 49 and 1:51. Together, the potential these recruits bring to the Huskies is huge. Sure, maybe they'll end up redshirting, but if they get to use a season of eligibility this winter, then don't be surprised if at least one of them plays a key role in the success of the DMR. I'll admit, aside from Colby Gilbert, the rest of Washington's DMR legs lacks the same wicked speed and star-power status that other teams may have. However, the sheer depth of this team at all different levels of experience may be enough to produce something dangerous. There is too much talent on this squad for Coach Metcalf to not be thinking about a stacked relay. Unlike Washington, however, the Michigan Wolverines are a team that may be a little easier to predict. The loss of 3:57 miler Ned Willig is certainly not easy to overcome, but having a 3:59 guy like Connor Mora returning to the squad is probably the next best thing. Not only does Mora have the all-important sub four mark on his resume, but he's also been quite consistent and was on a DMR last year that ran 9:32 at Alex Wilson. But for every great miler, there is an 800 runner that is just as great. Brennan Munley will be key to the Wolverines success this season and although a breakthrough into the 1:47 range would be huge for this squad, his reliability will prove to be an even greater asset. In his four completed seasons of indoor and outdoor track, the Michigan junior (with a PR of 1:48) has broken the 1:50 barrier 20 TIMES! Even some of the most established collegiate half-milers in the nation have failed to accomplish a feat such as that. The only question mark on this squad lies with Aaron Baumgarten. The senior Wolverine will be the make-or-break piece that determines whether or not Big Blue can get into the Big Dance. With a mile PR of 4:03, it is very possible that we could see Baumgarten dip under that four minute barrier this season. He also has a PR of 1:52 in the 800 which could be the perfect combination for a quick 1200 leg. Still, that is all speculation and with the lure of longer distance events like the 3k and 5k, we may not get to see Baumgarten pursue the DMR or open mile all that often this season. Another team with a similar relay structure may be the Southern Utah Thunderbirds who seem to have all of the necessary pieces for a respectable DMR. As we begin this conversation, we can't mention one name without mentioning the other. Kasey Knevelbaard and Mike Tate will likely be the duo that leads this DMR initiative should the Thunderbirds choose to pursue it. With a PR of 3:41 in the 1500 and a kick that is arguably the best in the NCAA, it may be easy to assume that Knevelbaard would find himself in the anchor position of this theoretical relay. Yet, with a personal best of 1:49 in the 800, he seems like he may have the perfect mix of strength and speed to be one of the top lead-off legs in the nation this year. On the flip side, Mike Tate's personal bests of 3:42 and 4:00 paired with his 5k PR of 13:34 indicates that he could thrive in the mile leg. That, of course, is not to say that he couldn't hold his own in the 1200. With an 800 of 1:51 and a 1000 of 2:29, this man can seemingly do it all. Together, Knevelbaard and Tate could help shock the nation just like they did last year. Southern Utah's 800 leg, which can often be a point of weakness for many distance-oriented programs, has a bit of flexibility. George Espino is returning to complete his final season of eligibility and will do so with a personal best of 1:49 from last indoor season. The next best option at the 800 position will most likely stay in the family as Bryan Espino enters his second season with a personal best of 1:52 as just a freshman. The experience of the elder brother or the untapped potential of the younger brother will decide who is able to secure the 800 spot for this team...right? I usually don't research the 400 legs all that often because their overall impact is typically not that big (although tell that to Iona). With that in mind, Justin Lewis is a guy that could be someone to watch out for if Southern Utah decides to construct a legit DMR. After running a 46.88 last season, it wouldn't be a wild idea to build up his endurance and see what he can do in the 800. It's a transition that happens a lot more often in high school than it does in college, but if this is someone who can run 1:48 or faster, than why not give it a shot? The T-birds would still have Brandan Harley who has a personal best of 47.76. The final squad of this DMR conversation is a bit unique when you compare their situation to others. Just like they did this past November when they placed 7th at NCAA's, the Iowa State Cyclones are a team that could really surprise this season with a solid amount of depth and a superstar leading the way. As we evaluate the weapons that this team has, it might be best to start off with the strongest portion of their relay: the 800. Jaymes Dennison and Roshon Roomes are coming off of breakout spring track seasons where they each ran 1:47.6. Dennison is entering this season as a senior while Roomes will only be a sophomore. Iowa State should be feeling very comfortable at the 800 position with two studs that are capable of hanging with some of the top athletes in the nation. The best part about the Dennison/Roomes combo is that whoever doesn't win the job for the 800 could still go on to contend for the 1200, something that Roomes could be a candidate for when you consider that his personal best in the 1k is 2:26. Although Roomes and Dennison could find an opening in the 1200, the more likely scenario is that we would see either Dan Curts or Zach Black leading off for the Cyclones. Curts is coming off of one of his better cross country seasons and enters indoor track with strong mid-distance PR's of 1:52, 2:24 (1k), and 3:43. As he enters the later portion of his collegiate racing career, Curts' speed joined by his improved endurance from cross country could definitely yield exciting results for the Cardinal and Gold this February and March. However, he'll have to battle with sophomore Zach Black who produced some respectable times of his own as a freshman. With personal bests of 1:52, 2:23, and 3:48/4:06, Black has shown that the 1200 could be an event that perfectly utilizes his middle distance abilities. It's tough to say who would be taking the lead-off leg for Iowa State, but having either Black or Curts should give Coach Smith a sense of comfort. However, while the 800 and 1200 legs seem to be relatively safe in terms of what we can predict, the anchor leg leaves a bit of uncertainty. Naturally, the best option for this spot would be Cyclone distance star Andrew Jordan who recently had a breakout cross country season where he placed 15th at NCAA's this past fall. The only "problem" is that we don't really know what Jordan could do at the mile distance since he has yet to record a time in an open event shorter than the 3000. The sophomore does have PR's of 4:10 and 1:53 from high school, but until we see what he can do on the college scene, the mile leg of this DMR will remain shrouded in speculation and theoretical splits. With that said, is it a smart idea to doubt or even question the ability of what this kid could do? Absolutely not. After such a huge cross country season, you have to imagine his fitness is at a different level than what it was in 2016 and that the idea of sub four minutes is well within reason. Iowa State placed 7th at Nationals this past fall and probably surprised everyone but themselves. With a long-distance superstar and a variety of options at the 1200 and 800 legs, the Cyclones are in a healthy position. If they can find some security in the mile, then Iowa State could hit that coveted 9:30 mark by March. #analysis #indoortrack #ncaa #gzatlin

Despite the lull in action over the past few weeks, we still got a few questions submitted to our Mailbag section! If you have a question or comment, feel free to go to our Home page and fill out the form in the "TSR Mailbag" box. No email required! "Which teams have had the best recruits so far?" - 21Cabbage Not only is this an excellent alias name, but the question is a pretty good one as well. Stay with me here as my answer is rather long-winded... When I look at the recruits that have committed so far, I can't help but notice four teams that standout: Notre Dame, Indiana, Michigan, and Stanford. With the exception of Stanford, I wasn't expecting these teams to bring in as much top-tier talent as they did, especially Notre Dame. Other programs such as Georgetown and Penn State have also brought in a deep group of individuals while Oregon and Colorado have focused on bringing in a small handful of superstars rather than a massive group of decent talent. Keep in mind that Oregon not only gets Brodey Hasty and Josh Hoey, but they also get Penn State transfer Jaxson Hoey who owns a personal best of 3:50 in the 1500 as just a freshman. When we look at the Notre Dame commits, you can't help but be impressed. The recruiting class is highlighted by Dylan Jacobs who just won the Footlocker National Championships and owns PR's of 4:07 and 14:55. Zach Kreft, an Ohio state champion and Footlocker All-American, has personal bests of 4:10 and 14:29. You also can't forget about Danny Kilrea, the 3x NXN qualifier, 1x Footlocker qualifier, and 3x All-American. This kid knows how to handle a heavy workload and has shown that he can come up big in the clutch with times of 4:12, 9:00, and 14:51. Andrew Delvecchio is another recruit who may not have a resume as stacked as some of his fellow recruits, but he has been one of the best in the state of Virginia and owns a personal best of 4:13. Together, these four could come together and create one of the most lethal recruiting classes the ACC has seen in a long, long time. In total, the Indiana Hoosiers have 11 distance runners committed. All of them boast achievements and experience at their respective state meets and National Championship regional qualifiers. However, the two individuals who really standout in this group are Dustin Horter and Arjun Jha. The times we have seen from Horter are incredibly impressive (4:07, 8:56, 14:36) and are complemented by four Ohio state titles, two NXN appearances, and a 6th place All-American finish. In short, this kid is legit. Yet, one of the Horter's biggest rivals throughout his high school career has been Arjun Jha who owns PR's of 4:09 and 14:56. Jha owns multiple state medals, but has yet to get past Horter who has been his largest roadblock to a state gold. Much like Indiana, Michigan has brought in a slew of elite high school talent with exceptional performances on the big stage. Yet, if there were just two individuals that we could point out, it would have to be Cole Johnson and Brian Hill. Johnson's commitment is huge for Michigan who just lost Ned Willig and is set to lose other stars like Aaron Baumgarten, Conor Mora, and Ben Flanagan in the near future. Johnson, a 2x Michigan state champ, owns personal bests of 51, 1:50, 4:08, and 15:12 which leaves the impression that he could have a resounding impact on this Wolverines squad within the first two years of his collegiate career. As for Brian Hill, he doesn't have times quite like Johnson (or even some of his fellow recruits). However, he does have two key characteristics that largely go overlooked: experience and consistency. This spring, Hill will graduate from the legendary CBA program (based in New Jersey) with the experience of running at three NXN championships. He has had multiple top finishes in his respective state championships and brings a sense of reliability to a Wolverine team that may need some help in the final scoring spots during the next few years. Stanford, as usual, is bringing in one of the best recruiting classes in the nation. Where do we start with this group? We could talk about Meikael Beaudoin-Rousseau, the California star who has run 8:58 and has qualified for Footlocker Nationals twice. Or, we could discuss Charlie Perry, the Colorado stud who recently qualified for NXN and owns PR's of 9:07 and 15:01. What about Clayton Mendez? The Chicago native just finished 9th at Footlocker and 18th at NXN this past cross country season. He also owns times of 4:11 and 8:59. We also can't forget about Andy Monroe, the 5x Oregon state champion and 2x NXN qualifier who has run PR's of 1:53, 4:09, 8:37 (3k), and 15:00. Of course, even with all of these talented individuals who hold a variety of titles or achievements, their best recruit might be Josh Schumacher from Portland, Oregon. The Footlocker qualifier has some of the strongest times in the nation with PR's of 3:50 (1500), 4:11, 8:22 (3k), 8:53, and 15:07. As of right now, he is headlining a stacked recruiting class. If I was forced to give an answer to the question "Which program has the best recruiting class right now?" I would probably have to say Notre Dame by just a little over Stanford. Notre Dame may only have four recruits, but their mix of experience and prestige on the high school stage make them a more potent combination. Their overall talent is too much to ignore and I expect at least one of them to have an immediate impact next fall. "What is it going to take to qualify for the NCAA Championships this year?" - Ev256 There are a few assumptions we have to make with this question. First, I think we are naturally assuming that we are talking about indoor Nationals. Second, I'm going to assume that you are looking for a cutoff time in each distance event. Finally, we have to decide whether or not we want to know the 16th best time for each event (top 16 times automatically qualify) or the time for the last-man-in after scratches have been tallied. For the sake of simplicity, we'll talk about just the 16th best time. Trying to gauge the average number of scratches that we anticipate for each event, finding a trend-line, and then making a projection using a predictive expression would take quite a long time since we haven't collected any data for that yet. However, that is a good idea for a future article... Luckily, we have data from our most recent article (Digits: Better With Age) that allows us to have some averages in regards to the 16th best time in each event for each year. The best way to go about this would be to separate each set of analysis by event. We plotted the 16th best time in each event from 2010-2017 and found predictive expressions for each event. You can find the equations below. We then plugged in “2018” (as a numeric value) for our X variable and found our projected time for the 16th best individual in each event. You can plug in any year you want (as the X variable) into each equation below to see what time the trend suggests the 16th fastest runner in that event will be for that year. Keep in mind that the DMR takes the top 12 relays, not top 16. For the analysis of the DMR, we have made sure that no teams (like Virginia Tech last year) are repeated in the top 12 since one team can’t run more than one relay. Therefore, the DMR is not necessarily the top 12, but actually the top 12 teams that are eligible to race. 2018 16th Man Time Projections 800: 1:47.99 y= -0.0576x + 164.23 Mile: 3:58.04 y= -0.1073x + 274.57 3000: 7:52.40 y= -0.2979x + 653.56 5000: 13:46.02 y= -0.4936x + 1042.1 DMR: 9:30.31 y= -0.4252x + 888.36 That's all for now! Keep the questions coming and get ready for the next few weeks of fast times and results... #gzatlin #ncaa #mailbag #analysis #indoortrack #digits #predictions

Is the NCAA getting faster? It's a question without a definite answer. How many individuals do we need to evaluate for our analysis to be statistically valid? Is it fair to say that just because one big meet was more tactical in year A that the top runners in that group were actually slower than those in year B? What about injuries? What about guys who ran faster last year but haven't run as fast in the following year? There are so many different variables to discuss, but they can't all be calculated. Finding out whether or not the NCAA is getting faster is difficult to pin down and can often be argued in a subjective manner. That said, The Stride Report took a look at some of these numbers and tried to pull away some meaning. The results were rather interesting... Methodology We first went to TFRRS to collect all of our data. As much as we would have liked to collect data on 100 names for each year and each event, the way TFRRS exports data into Excel is inefficient and would have taken a painstakingly long time to correct for 100+ names. Nonetheless, TSR decided to collect the top 16 times for each distance event from years 2010 to 2017 (8 completed seasons). We decided to use the top 16 times for the simple reason that the top 16 individuals in each open event are guaranteed to qualify for Indoor NCAA's should they choose to run that race. Obviously, not everyone will choose to run the event that they are the top 16 in. Still, it's a simplistic way and a good measure to figure out what an individual needs to accomplish in order to lock-in his spot to Nationals. We then took the average of those top 16 times for each year and for each distance. Essentially, this is just a bunch of averages, but the results do reveal a good bit... 800 Top 16 OVERALL AVG Time (8 years)- 1:47.45 #16 AVG Time- 1:48.21 For the past few years that I've been covering the sport, I have raved about how fast the 800 fields have been. Not only have they been fast, but the number of individuals that have been able to crack the 1:48 and 1:47 barriers has been unreal. Of course, despite my praises for those in the half-mile, there was never any data to back up my blind claims. Now, there is... Below, you can see how the average time among the top 16 800 runners have been consistently getting faster since 2014. The massive drop we saw in 2015 has not only sustained, but it has actually improved. In 2014, the average top 16 time was just a smudge under 1:48. Now it's in the 1:46's and trending towards greater improvements. Despite this significant improvement, we have to acknowledge that the rate at which these times are improving is starting to plateau. How much faster can these times really get after all? If the 800 is going to get any faster, it's most likely not going to come from a handful of individuals. Instead, the depth of the NCAA will need to step up. Here is an interesting stat to look at... Number of NCAA 800 Runners Under 1:47 2017: 9 2016: 7 2015: 6 2014: 1 2013: 4 2012: 2 2011: 0 2010: 4 The number of individuals dipping into that elite 1:46 mark is now over half of the eligible NCAA qualifying field. The best of the best aren't necessarily that much better now than they were then (although that's a different debate). The fact of the matter is that more runners are simply entering that top-tier threshold and making each millisecond that much more important. MILE Top 16 OVERALL AVG Time (8 years)- 3:57.26 #16 AVG Time- 3:58.60 Much like the 800, the Mile has seen some excellent progression over the past few years. Over the past 8 years, the average top 16 mile time has dropped from 3:58 mid to 3:57 low. For some, that may not seem like a huge change, but if you compare the spots in each season with the averages from 2010 and 2017, you'll see that the ~1.5 second gap can have a significant impact on your NCAA position. In 2017, Cole Rockhold was 6th in the nation with a time of 3:57.19. At 15th in the nation was Thomas Joyce who had a time of 3:58.47. In 2016, that gap was far more pronounced when Clayton Murphy was ranked 7th in the nation (3:57.11) while Robert Denault was 23rd in the nation (3:58.48). Yet, in 2010, the fastest time in the nation was 3:57.62. A time of 3:58.48 would have earned you roughly around 8th place. The average mile of the top 16 runners since 2011 has literally been faster than the top ranked runner in 2010. 3000 Top 16 OVERALL AVG Time (8 years)- 7:51.06 #16 AVG Time- 7:53.83 When you first look at the graph below, it's hard not to think that the progression in this event has plateaued...and you would be right. The average time among the top 16 in the 3000 meters has stayed relatively constant since 2013 with the average time moving anywhere from 7:51 low to 7:49 high. Still, when you consider where this event was during 2010 and 2011, the times we are seeing now are still considerable improvements. In 2010, the 7th best 3000 meter runner in the nation ran 7:54.57 while the 16th best runner in the nation ran 7:57.42. From 2011 to 2017, any individual that ran a time of 7:54.40 or slower would not have earned a guaranteed qualifying spot to NCAA's. Essentially, over half of the guaranteed spots from 2010 would not have secured their spot to NCAA's in any other year. Still, a year like that is an outlier, just like the monster year of performances that we had in 2012 where 7 individuals broke the 7:50 barrier. Since then, only 2015 has matched that total of individuals that have broken 7:50 in one season. Despite these glaring outliers, the overall progression that we have seen in the 3k is still very solid. The trend-line suggests that 2018 is a year where we could see a top 16 average of 7:49.31. 5000 Top 16 OVERALL AVG Time (8 years)- 13:42.42 #16 AVG Time- 13:48.25 In the three events prior to this one, we have seen some excellent development and progression. The 800 is the fastest it's ever been (by far), the depth in the mile is becoming increasingly more deep, and the 3000 (although sporadic) is still trending towards even faster times thanks to a mix between better low-sticks and more reliable depth. However, the 5000 meters shows us something that the our other results did not...regression. Just like the 3000, the 5000 meters has been relatively slow in 2010 and 2011. However, both events rapidly became faster in 2012 by producing times that even most professional athletes would struggle to hit. I'll admit, it's tough to follow up the legendary 2012 season and we probably won't see a season like that for quite some time now. That said, the 2013 season was a strong year for many athletes as the top 16 average still dipped under 13:40. However, things simply haven't been able to match seasons like 2012 or 2013. The past four years have yielded a "happy medium" between the unimpressive performances we saw in 2010/2011 and the mind-blowing results we got in 2012/2013. It's difficult to really get a statistical understanding on the 5k. The length of the race allows the 5000 meters to become extremely variable while also having a greater chance of tactics coming into play. In 2018, what can we expect to see from this event? More of the same 13:41 to 13:43 averages? Or an outlier that deviates away from the trend-line? Whether it deviates up or down is still to be decided... #digits #indoortrack #gzatlin #ncaa #analysis

With the holidays nearing an end and the new year just around the corner, we thought it would be a good time to start reflecting on some of our favorite articles from the 2017 year. Keep in mind that the site wasn't launched until late March so we are yet to have a full year of articles! Below, we have listed our 20 favorite articles with a quick description. We're stealing this idea from Jarrett Felix, the owner of a very popular Pennsylvania high school running site called Etrain11. If you're a runner from PA, you definitely know who I'm talking about. If not, you should definitely give him a click and check him out before he heads into retirement! Admittedly, it's been a slow week of content here at TSR with college finals and a lack of meets during the holidays. Still, we're dedicated to bringing you more great posts as we progress through this winter season. So stay tuned! We appreciate all of the support that we've had in just the 9 months that this site has been published.  Business As Usual 3/27/2017 It was the very first article ever published on this site and it seemed to do pretty well with our early readers. The article talks about top distance runners who were set to earn pro contracts at the end of their NCAA eligibility. Some guys we were spot on about (Futsum Zienasellasie). Other we were very off the mark (Edward Cheserek). Questions We Still Need Answered 4/18/2017 After an eventful week at Bryan Clay, fans of the NCAA were left with even more questions than before. Josh Kerr's 3:35 and Cheserek's absence from the meet left fans wanting more closure as to who the top runner in the NCAA was (at that distance). We even sparked the idea about Vincent Kiprop possibly transferring to a new program after his monster 10k performance. It was the closest thing to psychic powers we've even shown before... Under The Radar Underclassmen 4/11/2017 This past spring was a big season for a lot of young guys in the NCAA. We were able to point out some of our top picks and it turns out that many of them were about as good as we expected... Feature Friday: The Legacy of Edward Cheserek 4/8/2017 As the site was attempting to get off the ground and more articles were looking to be published, Jarrett Felix stepped in and wrote an excellent piece on the impact and legacy Edward Cheserek was going to leave on the NCAA. If you're looking to relive some of his finest performances, give it a click and read up! Where You At? 5/3/2017 The discussion during the spring track season was dominated by guys like Korir, Engels, Kerr, Cheserek, Fisher, and Knight. Yet, many people seemed to forget about NCAA stars like Sean McGorty, Daniel Kuhn, and so many more. Why did we not see these guys race earlier this year? Stanford's Change of Pace 6/1/2017 A distance program is just like any other sport. Superstars rise to the top of the NCAA and help build up the young talent around them. That was the case with Sean McGorty and Grant Fisher. The article here discusses the McGorty's constant chase for NCAA gold while Fisher may (and did) achieve it first. Luckily, we'll get to see McGorty pursue a national title this winter without Cheserek in his way. What We Learned From NCAA's 6/13/2017 It's amazing what one meet can tell you about the state of an entire sport. The article discusses "sit and kick" race tactics, the loss of Cheserek, having great range, foreign runners having success, and underclassmen succeeding at the shorter distances. Trust The Process 7/4/2017 Personally, this will go down as my favorite article of 2017. This summer feature article took a look at the team building method that was first popularized in the NBA. Since then, programs like NAU, Furman, and now Wisconsin have embraced redshirting their top talent in favor of an all-out title pursuit in the following year. This was also one of our most shared articles on the site. Recruit Rankings June Constructing rankings are always fun, but these rankings brought a unique perspective during a summer when readers were looking for more content to read. The series of articles sparked a few debates and kept things busy in a summer without racing. The Summer Coaching Carousel 7/22/2017 There were plenty of coaching moves that took the NCAA by surprise. The biggest, however, was Chris Solinsky when he announced that he would be leaving William & Mary to take the distance coaching position at Florida. Solinsky was just one of many coaches who chose to pursue coaching opportunities elsewhere. Digits: Three's A Party 7/29/2017 It was one of our simpler articles, but it gave a lot of great detail in regards to the statistical matchups between Knight, Fisher, and McDonald. Overlooked 8/28/2017 Following the conclusion of our Top 25 Team rankings, we decided that certain teams deserved some recognition before the season began. In retrospect, maybe leaving teams like Colorado State and Portland out of our Top 25 was a bad idea... Change of Plans 8/30/2017 The article was a great preview as to the matchups we expected to see during the cross country season. In terms of Kolas points, many of the smaller invites were crucial for teams attempting to qualify for NCAA's. It was also interesting to see teams like Colorado and NAU enter meets that we usually don't see them at. Lazy Sunday Chat 10/22/2017 It was an exciting regular season of cross country competition. This article was able to recap a few interesting points, spark new debates, and walk through a couple of NCAA qualifying scenarios. It's a good article to go back and review for the most recent cross country season. Digits: The Great (Crimson) Debate 10/7/2017 One of the most riveting debates of the cross country season was whether or not Alabama's top three were strong enough to earn them a spot to NCAA's. In fact, I actually used this topic for my paper in my Economics of Data Analysis class. One side of the numbers argued heavily against the Tide qualifying for Nationals. The other side, however, was in Alabama's favor. 7 Sleepers 11/29/2017 After a long season of cross country and the long distance studs getting copious amounts of attention, it's easy to forget about the talented athletes that we could see on the track this winter and spring. TSR broke down 7 individuals and teams that could surprise a lot of people around the NCAA... 31 Teams, 31 Recaps 11/19/2017 The Cross Country National Championships is always a wild experience. The team battle is typically the highlight of the meet and every finish from every team is extensively analyzed...well, at least for us it is. We evaluated all 31 team finishes and gave our thoughts on each team's performance. Test of the 10k 11/8/2017 One of the more underrated aspects of collegiate cross country that many fans and people in media fail to remember is that races during the championship season are 10k. Not 8k like the regular season. Former Columbia runner Jack Boyle joined our team and explained how TSR's top 10 teams (at that time) could potentially transition to the 10k racing distance. Winter Is Coming: Event Previews November/December Not only has John Cusick brought us some awesome graphics, but his articles are pretty darn good as well. If you're looking for open distance event previews, Cusick brings excellent detail and mentions every name you could possibly think of. Give them a read if you haven't already!  Digits: The Jacob Dumford 1k 12/5/2017 The cool thing about our Digits articles is that they give you a nice perspective on performances from certain individuals and teams. We like to think that this piece really gives you a good understanding of just how good Dumford's 1k was earlier this month. He could be primed for a breakout season... #gzatlin #jboyle #XC #ncaa #jcusick #indoortrack #outdoortrack

"How big of a deal is Ben Veatch's 13:57 US Junior Record?" - DillyDilly Here's the problem with Veatch's US Junior indoor record...he may not have actually gotten it. If you look back to 2009, you'll see that Chris Derrick (formerly of Stanford) actually ran 13:48 at NCAA's as a freshman. Even if Derrick was a redshirt freshman, he would have still been 19 and eligible for the record. There are certain all-time lists that don't have him listed. Why that 13:48 hasn't been ratified is still unclear, but if there is some technicality that prohibits Derrick from owning that title, then Veatch does have the official record (unless there is another name that I missed). However, whether or not Veatch has the record isn't really all that important to me. What truly impresses me is that he opened up his collegiate track career with a sub-14 minute win over a strong and experienced field. Taking down Portland star Jeff Thies, a wicked fast miler who is coming off a breakout cross country season, as well as the MTSU duo, is a strong way to build your resume. I'm expecting at least one of those three individuals to make it to NCAA's in the 5k this winter. We can't get too excited, but the people he beat and the way he did it is a great sign of things to come. "Wayne Phipps resigns with WSU: Good call or bad?" - WashXDTR This is a tough one to answer simply because I'm just a guy behind a computer screen who isn't out there seeing the everyday developments of a distance program. Still, when I look at the new Phipps contract, I find myself conflicted about the deal. When you look at the program from a cross country perspective, the Cougars have been a respectable squad that consistently makes Nationals year-in and year-out. To do that in a loaded PAC-12 conference and West region is something that should admired. On the flip-side, Phipps failed to make NCAA's in his first season with WSU and has had some very average finishes at NCAA's over the past three years (although 2016's 14th place finish was a nice performance). On the track, we haven't really seen a whole lot of crazy results from the Cougars in terms of the mid and long distance events. Jesse Jorgensen was a stud 800 runner with a 1:46 PR while Joe Whalen and Drew Jordan were able to crack just under the 14 minute barrier with personal bests of 13:59 and 13:56, respectively. Those are solid times, but some of these guys were developed under a different coaching staff and only worked with Phipps at the tail end of their college racing careers. Since Phipps entered the program in 2014, no WSU Cougar has dipped under 4 minutes in the mile or under 8 minutes in the 3k. With that in mind, Phipps may be unfairly criticized at times. Distance running stars like Joe Whelan and Michael Williams have progressed incredibly well under Phipps while the rest of the squad continues to get deeper and deeper with each passing year. There is a lot of back and forth to be had with this topic, but I think it's only fair that the Washington State program gives Phipps more time to develop and refine his training methods. He has had solid production while staying competitive in the toughest/deepest conference and region in the nation. Right now, it may be too early to tell if the Phipps contract is a good deal or not. I'm still waiting to see what else he'll be able to produce. "Which is a bigger deal for BYU? Casey Clinger leaving or Connor Mantz returning?" - ShouldaWoodchuckChuckWood? This is an awesome question that I didn't really think about until it was brought to my attention. Then again, I think everyone forgets how good Mantz was in high school. With high school personal bests of 4:07, 8:53 (at altitude), and 14:51, you can't help but think of the crazy potential this kid has. A little over two weeks ago, he returned to the BYU squad and made his collegiate debut with a time of 8:19 (unattached) at the BYU December Invite. If you give the proper altitude conversion, that time is right around 8:09. He may just be getting back into shape after returning from his mission trip, but the first performance of this season has already been super impressive. Still, the weight of Clinger leaving is something that we can't ignore. He was an absolute stud this past cross country season with incredible finishes that most top athletes are never able to achieve, much less as a freshman. Losing a two-time NXN champion is never going to bode well for you. Trying to replace your top finisher at NCAA's in cross country is a feat that very few coaches and programs ever accomplish. HOWEVER... If you can't retain a two-time NXN champion, then replacing him with a three-time Footlocker All-American is probably the next best thing. Yes, I'll confess, we don't know how good Mantz is going to be until we actually have cross country performances to compare. Based on what we've seen so far, I don't think it's far-fetched to say that Mantz could compensate for the loss of Clinger. Simply put, the net benefit/loss for bringing back Mantz and losing Clinger is about 0 in my mind. Clinger's absence will hurt, but by the time cross country rolls around and Mantz is fully integrated back into the BYU system, the Cougars will most likely have one less scoring replacement to worry about. #analysis #mailbag #gzatlin #ncaa

Here are the 8 of the best matchups that you should watch out for this indoor track season... 8. Harris vs White The 800 field is a wild one. Most fans who follow the sport know that. Yet, with Emmanuel Korir now out of the picture, it seems like Isaiah Harris is the favorite to win it all as we enter the season. Still, the entirety of last year wasn't just about Korir and Harris. The Virginia Tech duo of Piazza and Joseph, UTEP's Michael Saruni, Robert Heppenstall of Wake Forest, and Indiana's Daniel Kuhn all put immense pressure on the top group. No one seemed to be a "lock" for the title. The one name that seemingly went under the radar was Georgetown's Joe White. The Hoya senior got the best of Harris throughout the entire indoor track season and often threw down performances that put his name in the title conversation. White ran a 2:21 1k to upset Harris at the Nittany Lion Challenge, defeated Harris (again) at Indoor Nationals, and later pulled off a 1:45 during the outdoor season. The spring season would be a reversal of what happened during the winter. Harris would best White at the Florida Relays as well as at Outdoor Nationals. While there may a slew of top-tier elites, Harris and White may be one of the more exciting matchups to keep an eye on as we transition into 2018. 7. Colorado State vs Colorado It's a well known fact that the Colorado Buffaloes are one of the best collegiate distance running programs in the nation. With that in mind, we need to start giving the Colorado State Rams some love. When you look at the personal bests and the weapons that each team holds, we could see multiple exciting matchups throughout this winter season. The 5k will be an interesting battle between these two teams as CSU's Jerrell Mock and Grant Fischer will look to take on Joe Klecker and John Dressel. With strong 10k PR's and indoor track personal bests of 13:44 (Mock) and 13:46 (Fischer), this Ram's duo looks like a formidable opponent for Klecker and Dressel. Then again, Dressel placed 4th in the 5k at Indoor Nationals last year. Who is going to get the edge in 2018? Will Dressel even be healthy enough to compete this winter? If Colorado State dominates the 5k, then the Buffs will still be able to lean on their talent in the 3k. Last year, Dressel, Klecker, and Perrin all ran under 7:56 in the 3000. In fact, Colorado actually had four individuals in the top 20 when the season ended. Only Oregon had more than one individual in the top 20 last year (Cheserek and Maton). Each team boasts some impressive talent with potential new-comers looking to step up (i.e. Eduardo Herrera). This might be one of the more underrated in-state rivalries in the nation. 6. Teare vs Herrera (vs Worley?) This past cross country season was an exciting one for many freshmen across the nation. Cooper Teare gained national attention by leading the Oregon team as just a freshman with Matthew Maton out of commission. His 8th place finish at PAC-12's earned him PAC-12 Freshman of the Year honors over Colorado's Eduardo Herrera who was 14th at Pre-Nats and 10th PAC-12's. Of course, Herrera would later go on to finish 33rd at Nationals and earn All-American status while Teare was 44th overall. Who really deserved PAC-12 freshman award? One name that fans of the sport are still unsure about is Sam Worley. The Texas Longhorn freshman was a stud during cross country as he led his team throughout most of the regular season. However, he was a DNF at the South Central Regional Championships and a DNS at Nationals. Is Worley healthy enough to be racing this winter? Will we even see him at all? He would be one of the very few freshmen who could push Teare under the 4-minute mile mark. Luckily, Reed Brown is training right next to Teare... 5. Scott Carpenter vs Jonathan Green It's not unusual to see some of the best rivalries in the NCAA occur on the same team. Cheserek vs Jenkins is a perfect example of that and Baxter vs Day is developing into a solid (friendly) rivalry as well. Yet, one of the more underrated matchups we could potentially see this winter is the Jonathan Green and Scott Carpenter. 2015 was the first time we saw Jonathan Green really have a breakout season after placing 5th at Nationals in cross country. Fast forward to 2016 and Green would sustain an injury. Luckily for the Hoyas, Carpenter stepped up and had a breakout season of his own when he placed 10th at Nationals. Now, Green is healthy and back to the height of his fitness which is evident by his 10th place finish at NCAA's this past cross country season. The upcoming indoor track season will be the first time that both of these men are at the peak of their fitness, 100% healthy, and running with full eligibility. Green owns personal bests of 13:45 and 29:09 while Carpenter has run 7:51 and 14:00. We could potentially see these two push each other to the top of the NCAA leaderboards in an effort to establish Georgetown dominance in the distance events. 4. Knight vs Fisher What? Did you think that we weren’t going to mention Knight and Fisher? The graduation of Edward Cheserek has left us with new favorites fighting for the title. Naturally, we were left with the two best runners in the NCAA. After Fisher’s upset of Knight in the 5k last spring, this past cross country season proved to be a season of vengeance for Knight who finally earned his first individual title while Fisher fell back to 5th at NCAA’s. The best part of this rivalry is that both of these individuals acknowledge the importance and excitement that this matchup brings to the running community. It’s difficult to say what these two will run and if they will even race each other at all at Nationals. Could one enter the 5k and the other enter the 3k? It is certainly very possible, but we’ve seen that these two aren’t afraid to back down from competition and take the easy way out to get the win. They elite duo will most likely seek each other out and give the fans one of the most anticipated matchups of the indoor track season. 3. The DMR: Historic Powerhouses vs The New Guys The DMR is always an exciting race because you never know what is going to come out of it. There are so many pieces of each squad to decipher which makes the race that much more entertaining. Despite this being a hard event to predict, we always see teams like Penn State and Oklahoma State emerge towards the top of the results. Of course, this year may be a little different. Penn State, much like last year, isn’t showing that they have a true ace in the mile this year. They have the perfect pieces 1200 and 800 legs in Domenic Perretta and Isaiah Harris, but if they don’t have a sub-four minute miler, can they really be competitive? Oklahoma State is in a similar scenario after losing Josh Thompson to graduation. They have guys capable of going under four minutes in the mile, but aren’t always the most consistent. Oregon is another team that is often found in the All-American spots every year. Yet, with Cheserek now gone and Matthew Maton’s health still unclear, the Ducks will have to look to their younger talent. Sam Prakel and Blake Haney are stronger veterans, but they haven’t shown the same kind of fitness that we saw from them in 2015. Freshmen like Cooper Teare and Reed Brown as well as the slew of sophomores above them are strong talents that give the Ducks a lot of depth. Still, is this group experienced enough to bring the Ducks a top three finish at Nationals? Obviously, there are other teams that should be given some attention as well. Virginia Tech doesn’t typically pursue the DMR, but they did last year with a “B” squad and STILL pulled out a 2nd place finish thanks to a 3:58 anchor from Vincent Ciattei. They return five men who have dipped under 1:50 in the 800 and now four guys who have either gone under four minutes in the mile or have a 1500 that converts to under four mile. If they wanted to, Virginia Tech could be the favorites to win it all. Indiana is another strong squad that is a little on the younger side, but they return everyone from last year’s national qualifying squad. Daniel Kuhn is an elite 800 leg while Kyle Mau never lost an anchor leg prior to NCAA’s. When you think of top-tier DMR teams, you don’t typically think of Indiana, but they have the all-stars and depth to form a scary good squad. Finally, let’s give some love to Georgetown. With Green and Carpenter set to compete this season, the Hoyas don’t need to worry about other open events as much. The DMR would be the perfect event to utilize the sub-four minute mile capabilities of graduate student Amos Bartelsmeyer. With two recruits entering the program who ran 1:49 in high school, as well as Joe White who owns a personal best of 1:45, the Hoyas could be a VERY dangerous squad for whoever they face. 2. The Battle for 800U As a resident of Pennsylvania, a lot of fans in the running community will tell you that Penn State deserves the title of 800U. And you know? It’s hard to argue against them. Not only do they currently have half-mile stars like Dom Perretta (1:47) and Isaiah Harris (1:44), but they have been producing top-tier athletes for years on end. Still, we can’t forget about Virginia Tech. As I just mentioned above, this squad has five men entering this winter track season with personal bests of 1:49 of faster. Drew Piazza and Patrick Joseph may be the best 1-2 punch in the 800 (ever?) as both individuals boast personal bests of 1:45 (Piazza) and 1:46 (Joseph). Not only does this team have depth, but they have the firepower to lead them past even the best teams in the nation (as evidenced by their 2017 Penn Relays 4x800 title). Another team that I mentioned in the DMR conversation is Georgetown. Obviously, the presence of Joe White checks off the requirement of having an elite half-mile on your squad. However, it’s the guys behind him that gives the Hoyas a case to be part of the 800U conversation. Kenneth Rowe, Charles Cooper, Spencer Brown, Rey Rivera, and Ruach Padhal have all, at one point in their racing careers, dipped under the 1:50 mark. If you add in Joe White, there is no program in the nation that has six or more individuals with personal bests under 1:50. Texas A&M is another program that a lot of people forget about mainly because they are known for their sprints and 400 runners. Yet, with the addition of star transfer Carlton Orange, the Aggies now have a squad filled with some outrageous firepower such as Devin Dixon (1:45), Carlton Orange (1:46), JaQwae Ellison (1:48), and Efrain Hernandez (1:48). Other programs like Indiana and Ole Miss have a great mix of depth and firepower, but the teams mentioned above are simply much more well known for their 800 development and have the history to back it up. 1. Brandt vs Corcoran How could we overlook such a great storyline? Robert Brandt narrows his college decision down to California and UCLA. He chooses California. While he’s at Cal, he develops into one of the best runners in the western portion of the country with personal bests of 7:58, 13:45, and 28:48. Then, all of the sudden, Brandt leaves to join arch rival UCLA. Why he transferred is still unclear, but it does make for an exciting headline. Could Brandt have left the Cal team on good terms with his coach and former teammates? Absolutely. Still, I’m willing to bet that every single one of his former teammates are focused on beating him as often as possible. Admittedly, Brandt simply has a stronger resume than most of the Cal team, but Garrett Corcoran was a name that I mentioned as a potential sleeper pick a few weeks ago. With personal bests of 3:59 and 7:52, Corcoran will most likely be gunning to take down Brandt in whatever event he can. A future matchup such as that could be extra motivation for Corcoran to step up his game and take down his old teammate now rival. #analysis #preview #gzatlin #ncaa #indoortrack

Yale Season Opener 800 Ackeen Colley of American International came out swinging this past weekend with an outstanding win in a time of 1:52. Not bad a freshman who ran 1:52 last week at the BU Season Opener. Mile American International continued to make a statement by taking the top two spots in the race. After running an 8:09 3k last week, Leakey Kipkosgei would drop down in distance for a mile result of 4:12. American International freshman Cameron Correia was runner-up in 4:13. It seems like there is a lot of exciting young talent on this American International team that we could see develop over the years. 3000 Manhattan's John Dove got the best of American International's Siem Mehretu and Kemani Hume with a time of 8:28 to take the win. Husky Indoor Invite 800 Franklin Pierce freshman Hugo Arlabosse runs 1:53 to cross the line in 1st. This comes just 10 days after Arlabosse completed the 600, 800, 3000, and 4x4 quadruple. We're only two weeks into the season, but this kid is already showing that he can handle a heavy workload and still get solid results. BYU December Invite 800 BYU's long distance stars may be taking a break, but we did get to see some of their other talented individuals step on the track this past weekend. David Graham was the victor in 1:51 while Talem Franco (Unattached-BYU) finished close behind with a 1:52. Mile Marcus Dickson has been known as one of BYU's more reliable mid-distance studs with an 800 PR of 1:48, but he was able to show some very impressive strength this past weekend with a 4:09 win (a personal best for him). What's even better is that he gets an altitude conversion of 4:04 to put him at 3rd overall in the NCAA for the mile. Could we see him make a move to the mile this winter rather than the 800? Utah Valley's Anthony Ocegueda finished the day with a 4:16 which received a conversion of 4:11. This is the second strong performance from him we've seen this season. Ocegueda earned a 3k conversion of 8:19 last week and now has a 4:11 to his name (all as a freshman) 3000 Connor Mantz of BYU has returned! In case you forgot about some of his accomplishments while he was out on a mission trip, Mantz was one of the premier high schoolers in the country two years ago with personal best times of 4:07, 8:52, and 14:32. This past weekend, he threw down aa 8:19 (unattached) which would most likely earn an altitude conversion of 8:09 if the NCAA recognized him as an attached athlete (based on other athletes in the race). Reveille Invite 1000 Texas A&M loaded up the 1k with some of the top middle distance talents on their squad. Their star transfer from Arkansas, Carlton Orange, ran unattached but he still got the win in a time of 2:25. Teammate JaQwae Ellison was runner-up in 2:27. It's unclear as to why Orange ran unattached, but it could suggest that Texas A&M is thinking about redshirting him. If that's the case, then this would give Orange time to adjust to the program and keep his winter eligibility for another season. Mile In a field that was filled with top-level pro athletes, Alex Riba held his own. Brazier dipped under 4 minutes while Leo Manzano finished 2nd in 4:03. It wouldn't be until the clock read 4:04 that Texas A&M's Alex Riba crossed the line. After missing out on NCAA's in cross country, I'm sure Riba is hungry to prove himself against some of the best in the NCAA. Running 4:04 is a great way to gain momentum for the rest of the season. Clemson Opener Mile For a school that is known for their mid-distances and sprints, the mile race was arguably the best race of the meet. The top collegiate in the race was Texas mile star Alex Rogers who threw down a strong 4:04 to finish 2nd overall. He was able to hold off Clemson's John Lewis who ran a HUGE personal best of 4:06 to place 3rd overall. For Rogers, this result isn't too surprising. But for Lewis? This a HUGE race. The Clemson junior now owns PR's of 47, 1:47, and 4:06. That is some seriously impressive range. 3000 What we didn't mention above is that Clemson's James Quattlebaum ran 4:09. Later on? He threw down an 8:25 to take the 3k win. That is a strong double for this early in the season. Hoosier Open 500 Statement. Race. 1:46 man Daniel Kuhn erupted in his season opener with an incredible time of 1:01 in the 500 to earn a new facility record. Do not sleep on what this guy can do come February and March. 1000 The Indiana men have more than just Daniel Kuhn in the middle distance squad. Jordan Huntoon and freshman Teddy Browning finished 1-2 in this race with times of 2:25. Watch out for Jordan Huntoon to have a breakout season this winter. Mile Do not forget about Butler! This team has a lot of very underrated pieces and Daniel Garcia proved that this past weekend with a winning time of 4:09. He convincingly pulled away from Purdue's Bryan Hester who was 2nd in 4:16. 3000 In his 2nd year of competition, Indiana sophomore Kyle Mau is looking to establish himself as one of the nation's best. His season opener, at the very least, was a great start to that as he soloed a winning time of 8:07. 5000 In the eyes of many, this was the race of the weekend with Indiana freshman Ben Veatch pulling off a huge upset over an experienced field that included some of the nation top distance runners. Veatch was able to edge Jeff Thies of Portland 13:57 to 14:00. Multiple reports have indicated that Veatch's time of 13:57 is a US Junior record while others argue that Chris Derrick holds that title. Nonetheless, it's an impressive time for Veatch and it goes to show that he is the real deal. Admittedly, I was looking for a bit more from the rest of the field. No one dipped into the 13:40's (which has been done in years past) and only Veatch broke the 14 minute barrier. Still, the times were solid across the board as MTSU's Chemadi and Choge finished with times of 14:01 and 14:05 while Portland's Logan Orndorf rounded out the top five in 14:07. #weekendreview #gzatlin #ncaa #indoortrack #recap

We are back! This time it’s with another exciting race: the 800 meters. Last year, the half-mile was taken by storm by the UTEP freshmen Emmanuel Korir and Michael Saruni. Korir won the event, and then went pro this summer after he finished 1st at the Kenyan World Championships. Saruni, however, has stuck around to come back and redeem himself after last year’s disqualification. Let’s take a look at last year’s top 16 from NCAA’s: 1. Emmanuel Korir, 1:47.48 2. Drew Piazza, 1:47.62 3. Joseph White, 1:47.79 4. Isaiah Harris, 1:47.94 5. Robert Heppenstall, 1:47.98 6. Daniel Kuhn, 1:48.72 7. Blair Henderson, 1:49.69 8. Michael Saruni, DQ (heat time of 1:48.44) 9. Eliud Rutto, 1:48.41 10. Andres Arroyo, 1:48.57 11. Ryan Manahan, 1:48.79 12. Carter Lilly, 1:48.97 13. Abraham Alvarado, 1:49.25 14. Craig Engels, 1:49.26 15. Avery Bartlett, 1:49.58 16. Patrick Joseph, 1:59.76 Korir has recently gone pro and has left his teammates at UTEP giving another athlete a chance to win it all in 2018. Piazza, Henderson, Rutto, Arroyo, Manahan, Alvarado, and Engels will join Korir on the list of athletes who won’t be back for the 2017-2018 season. Let’s begin with the first returner on that list in Joe White (Georgetown). Last year, White ran 1:46.44 at the Iowa State Classic to put himself as one of the top ranked performers in the nation. White’s 800 PR times have all progressed since his freshman year. He continued his success during the outdoor season where he ran 1:45 and placed 3rd at NCAA’s. White is returning for his senior year and will look to finish atop the NCAA for the first time in his career. Harris ran 1:46.65 during last year’s indoor season and found himself at 7th in the national rankings. He would later go on to finish 4th at the national meet. Harris transitioned to the outdoor season and lower his PR to 1:45 and grab runner-up honors to Korir at NCAA's. He later competed at the USATF Championships where he ran 1:44 and saw himself move on to the IAAF World Championships to face some of the best middle distance runners in the world. Harris will no doubt be back towards the top of the leader boards once again this winter. An NCAA title is certainly within his grasp. Heppenstall ran his fastest time of the year at the ACC Championships last indoor season which means that he peaked at the right time. He proceeded to finish 5th at the national meet. His success continued in the spring as he lowered his 800 PR by .3 of a second and finished 4th in the nation. He also set PR’s in the mile (4:08) and the 1500 (3:43) during the two track seasons, another display that Heppnestall is more than capable of continuing his success. Kuhn clocked the 4th fastest time during indoor season last year. He also ran 1:15 for 600 meters this past weekend which is very impressive for any athlete. His fitness was on full display last winter as he recorded his PR of 1:46.42 which ultimately led him to finishing 6th at the national meet. Kuhn only competed in one outdoor meet last season which left us with questions about his health. Saruni was the other big name at UTEP. After being left off the Kenyan World roster (despite finishing 3rd), Saruni has returned for his sophomore year at UTEP where he looks to be one of the favorites. Despite being DQ’d at last year’s indoor championships, Saruni’s PR’s speak for themselves. He ran 1:46.90 during the indoor season and then followed that up with a 1:45.82 during the outdoor season where we also saw him run 45.69 for 400 meters. Carter Lilly is the next man on the list. The Iowa senior has basically replicated his 800 meter times over the last three seasons. His PR officially stands at 1:47.32 and he ran 1:47.33 during indoor last year and 1:47.51 during the outdoor season. This seems like the year where Lilly will break out and get through that 1:47 barrier. Bartlett is the most curious returner of the top 16 from last year. Bartlett has a PR of 1:47.32 that helped him get into the national meet, but he also boasts PR’s of 4:08 for the mile and 8:30 for 3000 meters. He also dabbled in the 5000 meters during outdoor season. What’s it all mean? It most likely means that Bartlett will build on that strength and get back on the national stage once again, but this time with a PR somewhere near 1:45-46 instead of 1:47. Bold? Yes. Unrealistic? No. Our last returner is Joseph. He posted the 2nd fastest time of the year last winter with his 1:46.23 at the ACC Championships where he bested Heppenstall. Unfortunately for him, the conference success didn’t follow suit at Nationals. While that’s mostly because of a trip causing him to stumble, it was a disappointment for Joseph without a doubt. Back for his senior year, Joseph will look to better his time from last year. He has a mile PR of 4:00 (flat track) and a 5k PR of 14:19 which speaks to his ability to combine both speed and strength. One of the biggest transfers of the summer was Carlton Orange who left Arkansas to join Texas A&M. The former Razorback was ranked 17th in the nation last year, but ended up as the first one out of Nationals during last year’s indoor season. His times of 1:47.78 and 4:11 in the mile were the main highlights of his strong winter campaign. However, Orange does have a PR of 1:46 from the 2016 outdoor season and qualified for the outdoor championships in 2017. Orange has a strong resume and could be someone who can make some noise in the coming months. Devin Dixon (Texas A&M) was only a freshman last year, and he missed out on the indoor championships last year despite clocking a 1:47.85. That, of course, didn’t stop him from running a 1:45 during the outdoor season to enable his qualification for the big dance. Dixon has wheels to burn as he has also run 47.99 during indoor. He was also a part of the Aggies national qualifying 4x400 team. Dixon only has room to improve as he has three more years on the collegiate circuit. We expect to see his name towards the top upcoming results. Robert Ford (USC) comes into his senior year looking to improve upon his PR that he set in 2016. He missed out on the indoor championships last year despite flirting with the 1:48 barrier. He qualified for the outdoor championships where he ran a season best of 1:47.58 in the second round of the prelims. Ford should make the jump to the top 16 during the indoor season. Myles Marshall (Harvard) had a strong sophomore season where he recorded his then PR of 1:48.17 that put him inside the top 25 on the national list. He then moved to the outdoor season and improved on that time by running 1:47.79. He also runs 1000 meters in under 2:30 showing us that he can maintain elite speed for more than just half-mile race length. Domenic Perretta (Penn State) joins the long list of 800 runners that keep coming through Penn State. His freshman year consisted of a 1:48.17 during indoors and then a 1:47.29 during the outdoor season that helped prime him for the outdoor championships and USATF’s. Expect Perretta to make the leap and break the 1:48 barrier and even flirt with the 1:47 mark during indoor season. Brennan Munley (Michigan) ran 1:48.24 during the 2017 indoor season. He didn’t quite reach that mark during the outdoor season but he was a part of a Michigan 4x800 team that ran 7:23 at the Penn Relays for the 4x800. In his final year, he’ll look to run under the 1:48 mark and qualify for the national meet this upcoming March. The Clemson trio of John Lewis, Terrell Jackson and Mpho Makofane came on strong last year with all three going under the 1:49 barrier last year. Lewis then ran 1:47 during the outdoor season and continues to progress very well with each track season of experience under his belt. Lewis’ teammate Jackson competed at the USATF Junior Championships where he placed 3rd overall to give him more big meet experience. Meanwhile, Makofane also broke the 1:48 barrier during the outdoor season giving the Tigers three returners who should turn some heads. Clay Lambourne (Utah State) broke out last year beginning with a 1:49.20 at his Conference meet. The success continued into the outdoor season where he shaved two seconds off of that and ran 1:47.09 to get him into the national meet. Despite being knocked out in the prelims of the 800, the time was quick enough to give him a shot at the USATF Championships where he gained some much needed experience. Charles Jones and Vincent Crisp (Texas Tech) are another pair of teammates who have the ability to take a leap forward this upcoming season. Jones ran 1:48 during indoor and then burst on the scene when he ran 1:46 in his first meet of the outdoor season. He also ran at the USATF Championships where he was eliminated in the first round, but again, earned some valuable experience. As for his teammate Crisp, he also ran 1:48 during the indoor season and saw success when he ran 1:47 at the same meet as Jones. JaQwae Ellison (Texas A&M) joins his teammate Dixon as an athlete with success on the horizon. While he’s not quite as fast as Dixon, he ran 1:48 on both the indoor and outdoor ovals. The consistency is nice, but this looks to be the prime year where he has a chance to dip under 1:48 and even take a bigger step. Dipping under the 1:49 mark is anticipated in order to be part of the conversation come March. However, in order to be in the big meet, times will be closer to low-1:48 or high 1:47’s. With strong returners, it’ll be interesting to see if any noise is made when March rolls around. We’ll be anticipating yet another strong showing for the 800 meters. #jcusick #preview #indoortrack #analysis #ncaa

The first weekend of the indoor track season held some solid performances across the board. Emmanuel Rotich dipped under 14 minutes with a 13:52 5k while Marc Reinas had a breakout performance with a 1:48 800. Yet, maybe one of the most under appreciated results of the weekend was Notre Dame's Jacob Dumford soloing a 2:21 1k at the Blue & Gold Opener. Most track fans familiar with the 1k will understand that 2:21 is flat-out good. Still, the real question is HOW good is 2:21? We're here to answer that question... The problem with the 1000 meters at the NCAA level is that there isn't a lot of easy data to access. Luckily, we were able to find results for indoor track 1000 meter times at the NCAA D1 level (since 2008) thanks to Athletic.net, a time database that has partnered with DyeStat. We will be using this database and the past 10 completed indoor track seasons for the purposes of this article. Jacob Dumford's official time this past weekend was a 2:21.45. Below, we have listed the top 30 times over the past 10 years and have attached some accolades next to the guys in the top 15. Here is how Dumford stacks up against some of the best 1k contenders in the NCAA over the past year. 30. De'Sean Turner / Senior / Indiana: (2:22.45) (2012) 29. Dey Tuach / Sophomore / Arkansas: (2:22.42) (2011) 28. Zach Beth / Junior / Wisconsin: (2:22.39) (2010) 27. Gavyn Nero / Senior / Arkansas: (2:22.39) (2011) 26. Aaron Dixon / Junior / Missouri: (2:22.38) (2010) ------------------------------------------------------------ 25. Chris Gowell / Senior / Baylor: (2:22.38) (2010) 24. Jonathan Moore / Senior / Albany: (2:22.36) (2010) 23. Mike Atchoo / Senior / Stanford: (2:22.32) (2014) 22. Duncan Phillips / Senior / Arkansas: (2:22.30) (2011) 21. Marco Bertolotti / Senior / Stanford: (2:22.17) (2014) ------------------------------------------------------------ 20. Izaic Yorks / Sophomore / Washington: (2:22.14) (2014) 19. Isaiah Harris / Sophomore / Penn State: (2:22.14) (2017) 18. Josh Thompson / Junior / Oklahoma State: (2:22.07) (2017) 17. Hayden McLaren / Junior / Providence: (2:22.05) (2009) 16. Owen Dawson / Junior / Penn State: (2:21.98) (2010) ------------------------------------------------------------ 15. Drew Piazza / Junior / New Hampshire: (2:21.97) (2016) <-- 1:45 800 & Multiple All-American 14. Joe White / Junior / Georgetown: (2:21.96) (2017) <-- 1:45 800 & Multiple All-American 13. Vincent Ciattei / Junior / Virginia Tech: (2:21.63) (2017) <-- 3:58 Anchor on All-American DMR 12. Dorian Ulrey / Senior / Arkansas: (2:21.56) (2010) <-- 3K National Champion & Multiple All-American 11. Noah Kappuila / Junior / Princeton: (2:21.52) (2017) <-- Ivy League 1K Champion ------------------------------------------------------------ 10. Jacob Dumford / Senior / Notre Dame: (2:21.45) (2018) 9. Erik van Ingen / Senior / Binghamton: (2:21.28) (2011) <-- 3:57 Mile & Multiple All-American 8. Chris O'Hare / Junior / Tulsa: (2:20.78) (2012) <-- 3:52 Mile & Mile National Champion 7. Peter Callahan / Junior / Princeton: (2:20.78) (2012) <-- 3:39 1500 & Multiple All-American 6. Jeff Moriarty / Senior / Columbia: (2:20.77) (2011) <-- 1:47 800 ------------------------------------------------------------ 5. Neil Gourley / Junior / Virginia Tech: (2:20.54) (2017) <-- 3:40 1500 & All-American 4. Ryan Foster / Senior / Penn State: (2:19.96) (2011) <-- 1:46 800 & Multiple All-American 3. Ryan Foster / Junior / Penn State: (2:19.60) (2010) <-- SAME AS ABOVE 2. Robby Creese / Freshman / Penn State: (2:19.53) (2012) <-- 3:39 1500, 7:50 3K, & Multiple All-American 1. Brannon Kidder / Senior / Penn State: (2:18.26) (2016) <-- 1:45 800, 3:38 1500, & Multiple All-American Dumford ran the 10th fastest 1k in the past 10 years. If you trim down Ryan Foster's double appearance to just one, then Dumford lands at the 9th spot overall. In order to earn a spot in the top 10, Dumford had to beat out current NCAA stars like Drew Piazza, Joe White, and Isaiah Harris. Did I mention that all three of those guys have run 1:45 and that one of them is a World Championship qualifier? Simply put, Dumford is not just with elite company, he is ahead of them. At the same time, we have to acknowledge that Dumford doesn't have the PR's or achievements that some of these other names do. He has never qualified for Nationals and holds modest personal bests of 1:51 and 4:02. For any collegiate, those are solid times, but they hardly stack up to the caliber that we've seen from Piazza, White, or Harris. Does a huge time like this signal a big breakout season for Dumford during the 2018 season? Based on the others around him, it sure seems that way. But how did the guys in the top 30 fare in the season that they recorded their 1k PR? If we take out Dumford (since we're still waiting to see how his season will play out) and Dey Tauch (who only ran the 1k that season) then we are left with 28 individuals to analyze. Of those 28 individuals, only four of them did not break a milestone mark of either sub-1:50, sub-4:00, or sub-8:00. So, based on historical averages and a sample size of 28 individuals, Dumford has an 85% chance to run sub-1:50, sub-4:00, or sub-8:00. It might also be important to note that no one in the past 10 years has ever run a 1k as fast and as early as Dumford has. De'Sean Turner is the only other person on this list who has run a top 30 time in December. The rest of the athletes on this list have run their times during January and February. What does that mean for the rest of his season? Honestly, I don't know, but it sounded interesting... Notre Dame hasn't seen a mid-distance star come out of their program since Jeremy Rae graduated in 2014. Could Dumford be the next South Bend star who puts the Fighting Irish back into the national spotlight? A breakout season for him this winter could give life to a Notre Dame team that is preparing to bring in some of the top distance high school recruits in the nation next year. #digits #gzatlin #analysis #ncaa #indoortrack