Have a question or comment? Feel free to go to our HOME page and fill out the form in the "TSR Mailbag" box. No email required! Thanks to everyone who has submitted questions! Keep them coming... "Why did Stanford wait to race Sean McGorty? What does this mean for the MPSF Championships?" - Cardinal Inquiry Stanford is notorious for leaving fans guessing. Rarely has Stanford ever run a full-lineup prior to Nationals (in cross country) and they usually leave a key runner out until the final few meets of the track season. Why does Stanford do this? Honestly, I'm unsure. McGorty has had a history with injuries over the past year which could have played a role in his delayed start. At the same time, Coach Milt also seems to be a guy who is cautious about over-racing. Some people like to argue in favor of the surprise factor. What edge that may give a team is still unclear to me, but plenty of programs like to lay low until they absolutely have to run fast. So what does this mean for McGorty now? If I had to guess, I'm assuming that he'll be running the 3000 at the MPSF Championships this weekend. With the DMR most likely on his schedule for Nationals, running the mile would force McGorty to double within a 3-hour time frame and later come back for the finals the next day. However, if he were to qualify in the 3000, he would be completely fresh for the DMR and have an entire day to recover for Day 2. "Who could potentially pull off the upset win in each event and why? - DB4 For clarification, we'll just assume that the favorites in each event are Michael Saruni (800), Kerr (Mile), Knight (3000 & 5000), and Stanford (DMR). They are all NCAA #1's at the moment with the exception of Knight in the 5000... 800: Bryce Hoppel (Kansas) - Proven ability to double which bodes well for getting through both the prelims and finals - Has shown that he can beat top-tier veterans (i.e. Iowa State Classic) - Has yet to lose a single race this season (in an open event) - Strong finish/kick Isaiah Harris (Penn State) - Experienced - The only one who has the personal bests to match Saruni - Familiar with the competition Dylan Capwell (Monmouth) - Showing signs of 2015 fitness when he finished runner-up at NCAA's - Experienced: Has raced two eras of 800 runners - Speed oriented athlete which could be favorable in a sit-and-kick type race Mile: Kasey Knevelbaard (Southern Utah) - Has one of the best kicks in the NCAA - Trains & races at altitude which could help since Albuquerque, New Mexico takes place at 5300 ft - Solid range from the 800 to 5k with the ability to adapt to different racing styles Sam Prakel (Oregon) - Has consistently run some of the best mile performance in the United States (among all levels) over the past year - Veteran who has raced against top competition throughout his career - Only Josh Kerr and Justyn Knight have a run mile with no conversion faster than Prakel has this season - Will most likely have teammates racing with him (Brown & Stanovsek) which can help with the execution of race strategies 3000: Grant Fisher (Stanford) - Has upset Knight before - Known for his kick - Capable of adjusting to different racing styles - Has experience on the big stage Andy Trouard (Northern Arizona) - Has not yet lost to a single collegiate so far this season - Proven capability of pulling off an upset (i.e. defeating Fisher at ISU Classic) - Ability to match kick of competitors - Trains & races at altitude which could help since Albuquerque, New Mexico takes place at 5300 ft - MIGHT opt out of mile to be completely fresh for the 3000 knowing that Fisher and Knight will both be doubling from Day 1. Oliver Hoare (Wisconsin) - Gaining momentum as the season goes on...has improved personal best in this event from 7:54 to 7:51 - Still relatively new to this event which leaves a lot of upside - Split 3:54 in DMR last weekend...good indication of speed 5000: Mike Tate (Southern Utah) - Capable of running from the front which can eliminate competitors who like to rely on a kick - Has the best time in the nation this season - Trains & races at altitude which could help since Albuquerque, New Mexico takes place at 5300 ft Dillon Maggard (Utah State) - Has raced Knight before, understands his racing style - Trains & races at altitude which could help since Albuquerque, New Mexico takes place at 5300 ft - Capable of sticking with a fast pace which is a very real possibility with Mike Tate in this field - Experienced...has run on the national stage multiple times - Solid range Jack Bruce (Arkansas) - Beat Knight at NCAA Outdoor 5k last year - Has exhibited solid range and the ability to perform in the mid-distances - Has one of the more underrated kicks in the NCAA - Very experienced DMR: Indiana Hoosiers - Kyle Mau upset Fisher and Stanford earlier this season (admittedly, without Sean McGorty) - Plenty of depth and options to put at the 1200 leg, although Teddy Browning appears to running incredibly well there - May have the best 800 leg in the field, although Virginia Tech may argue against that Wisconsin Badgers - Experienced, veteran status through most legs - After splitting 3:54, Hoare has proven that he can hang with any anchor in the field - Hardy, Brown, and Hoare have not yet had a "poor" race this season Virginia Tech Hokies - One of the best all-around relays in the nation - Veteran status throughout all four legs - Have been on this stage before Ole Miss Rebels - Defending their title - Have been here before, very experienced - Return a similar relay from last year minus Craig Engels - Domanic ran 3:54 earlier this summer, could replicate that performance Who are your projected All-Americans? - RollCats In due time my friend, in due time... My roommate and I were debating so we'll leave it to you to figure out...among the distance runners, which ones are considered "elite"? Name all if you can. - Joe Flacco Is Not Elite Let's just be clear that not only is Joe Flacco not elite, but neither is Andy Dalton. That may be my Pittsburgh bias coming out, but I digress... The "elite" discussion is a very sensitive topic in most sports. In sports like football and basketball, there are so many subjective factors to analyze that it makes the discussion practically impossible to conclude. Distance running is a little more of an exact science, but there are still a variety of different factors that we need to compare. Wins, times, All-Americans honors, NCAA titles, number of losses, ability to double, racing tactics, accomplishments at certain times in eligibility, consistency, and so much more are all considered when we talk about any specific type of ranking or classification for distance runners. Before we can answer this, I need to know if we're talking about just this season or the overall careers of active runners in the NCAA. That's an important distinction. For the sake of this conversation, I think we'll talk about the overall careers rather than just this season. When I use the word "elite", I'm relatively conservative with who I give it to. The special thing about being "elite" is that there are only a handful of others in that same club as you. In my mind, when we look at what these guys have done so far in their careers, the clear-cut favorites to be considered "elite" are... - Justyn Knight (Syracuse) - Josh Kerr (New Mexico) - Michael Saruni (UTEP) - Isaiah Harris (Penn State) - Morgan McDonald (Wisconsin) - Grant Fisher (Stanford) - Sean McGorty (Stanford) - Matthew Baxter (Northern Arizona) - Tyler Day (Northern Arizona) A handful of these guys have titles, others have incredible times, and some have both. For the most part, I think this is a pretty reasonable list. After those nine is where things open up to debate. Here are guys that I feel may be a tier off from entering that "elite" level for whatever reason that may be. - Andy Trouard (Northern Arizona) - Rory Linkletter (BYU) - Colby Gilbert (Washington) - Ben Saarel (Colorado) - Dillon Maggard (Utah State) and maybe a few others...

Have a question or comment? Feel free to go to our HOME page and fill out the form in the "TSR Mailbag" box. No email required! "After watching the Eagles win their first Super Bowl, it got me wondering...which NCAA XC team is in the most desperate need of a cross country team title?" - PHL41 NE33 This is a really good question that I'm honestly unsure if I can answer accurately. The thing about the NCAA is that there are so many teams who put scholarship money into different areas. Syracuse puts all of their scholarship money into cross country while schools like Georgia put all of their scholarship money into track. Naturally, Georgia is going to be a better program on the track while Syracuse will be a better program during cross country. It wouldn't really be fair to consider Georgia in this conversation, so be sure to consider that as you read this... For the sake of this topic, let's just assume that the teams we are discussing currently reside in the Power 5 conferences (ACC, BIG 10, SEC, BIG 12, PAC 12). Below, you will find the total number of NCAA XC titles that each current Power 5 program has secured over the 78 year history of the NCAA Cross Country Championships (1943 did not hold a championship due to WWII). Arkansas : 11 Michigan State : 8 Oregon : 6 Colorado : 5 Wisconsin : 5 Oklahoma State : 4 Stanford : 4 Indiana : 3 Syracuse : 2 Penn State : 2 Iowa State : 2 Notre Dame : 1 Kansas : 1 Tennessee : 1 As you can see, this list still leaves A LOT of Power 5 teams without a team title. Yet, if there's one team that truly stands out, it might be the Michigan Wolverines. When you look at the Great Lakes region, you'll see that teams like Wisconsin, Michigan State, Indiana, and Notre Dame all have at least one cross country title. The Wolverines do not. Obviously, there are plenty of other cross country program in that region without a title, but none may be more historic and more legendary than Michigan. When you consider the all-time greats to come out of the program (Alan Webb, Nick Willis, Nate Brannen, Kevin Sullivan, etc.) it's hard to believe that they have never earned the big win. Of course, we also have to acknowledge that this program has historically put a lot of focus on their milers. Rivals like Wisconsin and the 1950's Michigan State squad have often had the sole focus of succeeding in cross country over track. Some may argue that the SEC is underrepresented with just Arkansas and Tennessee, but historically, the conference has been dominated by sprinters. Mississippi is a team that is beginning to focus on their long-distance guys, but they are still more of a track-oriented program than anything. Aside from Arkansas, there hasn't really been a team in the SEC with the central focus being entirely on cross country. The Virginia Cavaliers are another team that stand-out as a very Eagles-esque cross country program. For as long as I have been following the sport, UVA has been revered as one of the top programs in the nation. Sure, some seasons are better than others, but they have still been at the top of the NCAA most years. They have elite recruiting, outstanding depth, and are consistently ranked at the top of the polls. And what about Texas? Almost a decade ago, they were known as one of the biggest threats in cross country with guys like Craig Lutz, Ryan Dohner, and Leo Manzano (to name a few). Now, the Longhorns are going through a bit of a rebuilding period as they attempt to regain their prominence among some of the top cross country teams in the nation. Talking about all of the relevant Power 5 teams that are still looking for a title would take forever. Obviously, the ultimate goal for these squads is to win it all. Yet, when you consider the teams that have historically focused on and succeeded in cross country, programs like Michigan, Virginia, and Texas can't go ignored. If you're looking for other teams like that, you may want to consider Washington, Oklahoma, and NC State as well. Who knows? Maybe one of those teams will be the miracle underdogs of 2018 just like the Eagles were... "How legitimate do you think the altitude conversions are that we have seen so far?" - MileHigh This question gets asked every single year after someone earns a generous altitude conversion. This past weekend, it was Southern Utah's Kasey Knevelbaard who ran a 4:04 mile at roughly 7000 ft (someone can correct me on that). With a conversion, that time is converted into a 3:55. At Colorado, we saw Zach Perrin and Ben Saarel run a pair of 4:03's to earn conversions of 3:57. Cole Rockhold ran 4:04 to earn a 3:58 conversion. The altitude conversion system that the NCAA has is on lock-down, meaning that only they know what the conversion is going to be once a race is finished. The conversion system, although not officially published, has been consistently criticized over the years. During the 2014-2015 indoor track season, Montana State's Cristian Soratos ran a mile at altitude on a flat-track and earned a converted time of 3:56. Prior to this performance, no one had ever heard of Soratos which eventually led to questioning the validity of his time. Fast forward to the Husky Classic in February, and Soratos threw down a 3:55 to win the meet and upset some huge names like Brannon Kidder and Daniel Winn. After that, no one questioned the conversion...or at least, not for the rest of the season. Are the conversions exact? No. They never will be. But there are plenty of other examples of altitude converted times eventually matching the performances of the athlete. Let's take a look at the altitude converted milers from 2017... - There were 8 men who dipped under 4 minutes in the mile thanks to a conversion from altitude. - Of those 8 individuals, 7 of them qualified for Nationals. - Of those 7 qualifiers, 5 of them later became All-Americans (some of them, albeit, in a different event). - The 2 who did not become All-Americans that year were already All-Americans in a separate season. Discussing examples like these from every year of results would take forever. However, what I can tell you is that the trend is relatively consistent. For the most part, altitude conversions are accurate and, most of the time, the athlete usually comes back to run a performance that is an equivalent of their altitude conversion.

Should we be surprised that we saw a multitude of fast DMR's this weekend? No. Not at all. Alex Wilson and the UCS Invite are known for producing some of the fastest DMR times every single year. In fact, most (if not all) of the qualifying spots (top 12) are produced at just these two meets. This year, only one DMR squad in the top 12 was run before this weekend. With that in mind, we learned a lot about certain teams and how they will impact the NCAA qualifying picture. Here are a few thoughts we had after this past weekend... *Splits reported from Twitter. Follow us @TheStrideReport* Stanford Is The Best & Sean McGorty Is The Reason Why Throughout this season, the Cardinal fielded some of their best athletes week after week. Grant Fisher, Jack Keelan, Steven Fahy, and Brandon McGorty are just a few Stanford superstars that were able to put together some strong performances. Yet, there was always one glaring miss. Why didn't we see Sean McGorty? Was he still experiencing injury issues from last spring? Was there confusion about his eligibility? Simply put, why had he not raced? After remaining absent at the Power 5 Invite and not racing at Iowa State, many people (including myself) figured that we wouldn't seen Sean McGorty for the rest of the season. Of course, as Stanford usually does, fans of the sport were given a surprise this past weekend after Sean McGorty opened up the Alex Wilson DMR and handed off with a MONSTER 2:52.9 split. After splits of 47.7 and 1:50, Grant Fisher brought it home and shut down the competition with a 3:55 split. After splitting 3:58 at the Power 5 Invite and finishing 2nd to Indiana, I mentioned that Fisher would need to split faster if Stanford was going to enter the title conversation. He must have been reading because he did just that... With Sean McGorty back in the line-up, there may not be a relay with a more lethal combination. With a total time of 9:26.91, Stanford currently sits at 6th All-Time in the DMR rankings. They'll be the favorite at NCAA's in a couple weeks. The only uncertainty with Stanford now is if Sathyamurthy will be on the relay at Nationals. A 1:50 split is solid, but could freshman Brandon McGorty split faster? Do they have someone else in their arsenal capable of going under 1:50? It won't be a defining decision, but it will be an interesting one... Where On Earth Did Brown & Notre Dame Come From? Entering this season, we saw individuals from both Brown and Notre Dame put together some solid performances. Jacob Dumford (Notre Dame) opened up the season with a 2:21 1k while Brown's Martin Martinez threw down impressive times of 3:59 and 7:59. Of course, the DMR is a team effort. A strong anchor will help, but at the very least, you need a strong opener and "good enough" splits on the 400 and 800 legs to qualify for Nationals. For Brown and Notre Dame, they did just that. The splits for Brown are still unclear, but I imagine that Martinez was well under the 4 minute barrier along with a strong split from Emrich on the 800. As for Notre Dame, Dumford showed signs of being the superstar that we saw at the beginning of the season with a huge 2:53 split. After splits of 47.65 and 1:49 from Cheatham and Silva, Yared Nuguse had the race of his life with a 3:57 split. Nuguse had run 4:02 earlier this season, but to run a 3:57 has to be one of the most clutch performances of the weekend. Still, when you look at this Fighting Irish squad, everyone stepped up and provided top-level splits. Arkansas Had A Really Odd Lineup... Traditionally, the Razorbacks have been one of the better distance programs in the nation. For the most part, they've accomplished that with a handful of guys like Alex George, Jack Bruce, and more recently Cameron Griffith. However, this weekend was a break from the traditional Arkansas norm. Instead of running some of their top guys on the leadoff and anchor, Jack Bruce and Cameron Griffith ran the 400 and 800 legs... I think . Unless the Razorbacks ran a different order than what has been reported, having a 5k silver medalist on the 400 leg seems like a VERY bold move. In fact, as I type this, it probably makes more sense that Bruce and Griffith ran on the leadoff and anchor (or vice versa). John Winn is a talented guy, but for someone who hasn't run anything longer than the 800, it doesn't make sense for him to run on the 1200 leg. Both TFRRS and RunnerSpace report that Bruce and Griffith were on the 400 and 800 legs, but I would be surprised if that was actually the case. The Traditional DMR Powers Came To Play Virginia Tech? In. Stanford? In. Oklahoma State? In. Ole Miss? In. Oregon? In. Georgetown? In. Indiana? In. Villanova? In. With one week to go, these NCAA qualifications aren't exactly guarantees. However, all of those squads are in the top 10 which means that they're probably pretty safe. The only DMR Powerhouse that I would argue has been left out is Penn State. Aside from them, these teams are either continuing their streak of relay excellence or are beginning to build it (i.e. Virginia Tech and Indiana). Where Were Penn State & BYU? Speaking of Penn State, where were they? Historically, the Nittany Lions have been a squad that consistently produces some of the best DMR's in the nation. When you consider their roster this year, it's surprising to see that they haven't pursued a fast relay more than once. Colin Abert has stepped up his game and recently became a sub-4 minute miler with a 3:59. Isaiah Harris is one of the best 800 runners in the nation and Dom Perretta has shown that he can easily go under 3 minutes (and then some) on the opening leg. They also have Jordan Makins, another strong mid-distance talent, as an option. When you consider these three legs, it's hard to think that they couldn't be top 12 in the nation. So why didn't they assemble a relay at Alex Wilson or the UCS Invite? It was certainly a surprising move and it makes me wonder if they'll try it at BIG 10's. BYU is in a similar situation. With a mid-distance star in Abraham Alvarado and a roster of talented distance studs, the Cougars should be able to build upon their 9:36 from a month ago. Admittedly, their mile leg is iffy, especially with Linkletter primed to run the 5k/3k double at NCAA's. Still, is this really a BYU team that will choose not to pursue one more fast time? Unless we see something next weekend, that appears to be the case. We Were Wrong...Except For One Earlier this winter, we addressed some sleeper teams that could put together some very strong DMR squads...squads that could potentially qualify for Nationals. Our TSR Mailbag and Destined For The D-Med? articles mentioned teams like Washington, Iona, Southern Utah, Iowa State, Texas, Michigan, and even Wisconsin as programs that could potentially make a splash on the national stage. For the most part, we missed the call. Teams like Southern Utah, Iona, and Washington never really pursued a serious DMR while Iowa State, Texas, and Michigan simply didn't have enough firepower to enter the top 12 (at least not yet). However, we did mention that Wisconsin had enough really solid pieces to become All-American threats in the DMR. For the most part, even that prediction was unlikely considering Wisconsin's lack of focus on indoor track to begin with. To see them pursue a DMR at all still surprised me. At the moment, the Badgers currently rank 3rd in the NCAA for the DMR with an incredible time of 9:27.72. According to Wisconsin Coach Mick Byrne, the Badgers had the following splits of 2:57 (Hardy), 47.6 (Ellis), 1:47.7 (Brown), and 3:54.5 (Hoare). Yes, you read that right. Oliver Hoare split a 3:54 on the anchor! This guy has been super impressive all season with back-to-back 3k performances of 7:54 and 7:51. To see him drop a time like that validates the success that he's been having in the open events. If Hardy can drop a few seconds and keep this relay in contention by the time the baton reaches the anchor at NCAA's, then you could very well see Oliver Hoare bringing home a national title for the Badgers...

With the Husky and Iowa State Classics now behind us, we now have a very solid understanding of what the NCAA qualifying picture will look like. However, there are still plenty of opportunities for guys to get in a couple more marks before the season ends. Meets like Alex Wilson and BU Last Chance are known for producing plenty of NCAA qualifying performances before the National Championships. However, how much of an impact do Conference Championships have on the overall NCAA qualifying picture? We decided it was a question worth looking into... We went back and evaluated the top 16 runners in each distance event (800 to 5000) from 2010 to 2017 (8 years in total). We are looking at just the top 16 because the top 16 runners in each event at the very end of the qualifying window will be guaranteed a spot to Nationals in that event (should they choose to pursue it). We then evaluated how often a time in the top 16 was run at a Conference Championship. In total, from 2010 to 2017, indoor Conference Championships have produced 65 times within the top 16 of a distance event. That's an average of 8.125 NCAA distance qualifiers coming from Conference Championships every year. As we analyze each conference, it is clear that the conference that produces the most top 16 times is the MPSF (PAC 12). Of the 65 times that have been produced in the past 8 years, 33 of them (50.7%) have taken place at the MPSF Championships. For perspective, the next conference championship that produces the most top 16 times is the BIG 10 with a total of 9 (13.8%). Of course, certain meets produce faster times in certain events. Since 2010, the MPSF Championships has produced 19 NCAA qualifying times in the 3000 meters and 7 NCAA qualifying times in the 5000 meters . The ACC has the next most qualifiers in a single event with a total 6 NCAA qualifiers in the 800. 4 of those 6 times came in 2017. Here is how many qualifiers each conference has produced over the past 8 years (by event)... 800 ACC: 6 SEC: 5 BIG 10: 4 MPSF & BIG 12: 2 MAAC: 1 All others: 0 Annual Event Average: 2.5 Mile MPSF: 5 Ivy: 2 All others: 0 Annual Event Average: .875 3000 MPSF: 19 BIG 10: 4 ACC & MAAC: 1 All others: 0 Annual Event Average: 3.125 5000 MPSF: 7 Mountain West: 3 SEC: 2 BIG 10: 1 All others: 0 Annual Event Average: 1.625 So what does this information show us? Essentially, the 3000 meters produces the most top 16 times each year with an average of 3.125 individuals . However, we can't ignore the fact that most of those times come from the MPSF. The 800 meters produces the 2nd most NCAA qualifiers each year with an average of 2.5 individuals. A heavy portion of those qualifiers come from the ACC, SEC, and BIG 10. The 5000 meters is usually guaranteed to produce at least one NCAA qualifier at a Conference Championship every year with annual average of 1.625 individuals . The Mile is the event that produces the fewest NCAA qualifiers at the Conference Championships each year with an 8-year total of 7 individuals. That is an annual average of .875 individuals . Basically, if you're in the Mile, don't fret too much about the results that could come out of the Conference Championships. However, if you're in the 3000, be prepared to run another quick time some time soon because you may not be safe if you're on the tail-end of the qualifying spectrum. As we progress through some of these statistics, there is another fun fact that stands out: The number of NCAA qualifiers from Conference Championships has nearly doubled in the last four years compared to the first first four years of our analysis. The number of NCAA qualifiers produced by Conference Championships from 2010 to 2013 was 23 qualifiers. From 2014 to 2017, that number has risen approximately 83% to a total of 42 qualifiers. In layman's terms, if you're among the top 16 in a distance event this year, y ou have a higher probability of being kicked out of an NCAA qualifying spot than you did four to five years ago. So what did we take away from this article? Here is the TL;DR portion of it... - The MPSF Championships produce A LOT of NCAA qualifiers compared to other Conference Championships (mainly in the 3000 meters). -If you're in the last few qualifying spots for the 3000 meters or 800 meters, the Conference Championships have a good shot at pushing you out of qualifying based on annual averages. - If you're in the last few qualifying spots for the Mile or 5000 meters, the Conference Championships probably won't bump you out of qualifying based on annual averages (unless you're the last man in). -More and more top 16 times are coming out of Conference Championships than they have in the past. In fact, they have almost doubled over the last four years.

The biggest weekend of competition has concluded and we are now only a few weeks away from the Big Dance. With just a small handful of meets left, athletes will be scrambling to earn qualifying marks in an effort to kick others out of their favorable NCAA rankings. Yet, for many of the nation's top athletes, these final few meets will simply be opportunities to rebound from a series of poor races or to continue their hot streak that they have had since the early portion of the season. Momentum is key in the NCAA. Gaining enough confidence, making improvements, establishing consistency, and developing effective race tactics are underrated aspects that allow many of the NCAA's best to be successful. Below, we've identified a few key names in the NCAA that will attempt to continue their hot streak of performances or snap their cold streak of sub-par results within the next few weekends. ON FIRE Andy Trouard (Northern Arizona) So far this season, the NAU Lumberjack has looked incredibly fit. Coming into this season, many fans around the nation (including us) may have overlooked Trouard after he was overshadowed by the 2-3 finish of teammates Matthew Baxter and Tyler Day at XC Nationals this past fall. Trouard, however, has shown that he is just as talented. In the two races that he has competed in this season, the Lumberjack senior has yet to lose to a single collegiate so far. He was runner-up to Nike Oregon Project's Yomif Kejelcha after running 3:58.01 at the UW Invite and recently upset superstar Grant Fisher with a phenomenal time of 7:48.21. Trouard's NCAA rankings currently put him at NCAA #2 in the 3000 meters and NCAA #16 in the Mile. Should his mile time hold up, I imagine he will most likely enter in both races. Who knows? Maybe he runs a fast 5k soon... Bryce Hoppel (Kansas) You know how I said that Andy Trouard hasn't lost to a single collegiate all season in the two races he has run? How about Bryce Hoppel not losing to a single collegiate all season (in an open event) in the six races that he has run? There is a lot to like about Hoppel this indoor season. Leading into this winter, Hoppel was one of the better mid-distance runners in the BIG 12 with an ability to run an effective double while also securing wins in tactical races. Now, Hoppel has elevated his game to a completely new level. After winning back-to-back 800/Mile doubles earlier this season, Hoppel threw down a personal best of 1:48.36 to win the Rod McCravy Invitational. He would follow that up with an even larger PR the next weekend as he would upset Robert Heppenstall for the win in a time of 1:47.09. That time was even enough to best Isiah Harris' winning time in the fast heat. Simply put, Hoppel is showing all of the right signs. He's consistently securing wins, he's tactically out-racing established veterans, and he's improving on his times week in and week out. HEATING UP Carlos Villareal (Arizona) A few years ago, one of the most electrifying names on the high school scene was Carlos Villareal. As a high schooler, Villareal was able to secure the Arizona state record in the 1600 meters with a blazing time of 4:03. His first few seasons at U of A were certainly adjustment periods and the monster times didn't come easily. However, Villareal trusted his coaches and trusted the process. At the beginning of this season, he opened up with a 4:02 (personal best) win at the Larry Wieczorek Invite and later followed that up with a sub-4 performance of 3:59.65 to win his heat at the UW Invite. Yet, even after dipping under 4 minutes, Villareal acknowledged that his 3:59 probably wouldn't be enough to qualify him for Nationals. So what did he do? He ran faster, of course... In an elite field of Oregon superstars, Nike pros, and established sub-4 minute milers, Villareal kept his composure and finished 3rd overall in the Husky Classic with a time of 3:57.64 (NCAA #14). That time should be enough to qualify him for NCAA's this season. With back-to-back-to-back mile PR's, it's tough not to like where Villareal is at right now in terms of fitness. He's make consistent improvements and relying more on his strength than his leg speed. Don't sleep on what this guy can do at Nationals... Kyle Mau (Indiana) Coming into this season, Kyle Mau was on my radar as one of the big key names to watch. After anchoring his DMR to an All-American finish at NCAA's last year as a freshman, I knew this guy had enough talent to make him a national contender. Mau's season started off strong with an 1:51, 4:02, and 8:07. Those times were solid for early in the season, but they would need to be improved upon as the winter months progressed. And boy did Mau improve... Mau would later drop his 3k PR to an 8:03, run under 4 minutes in the mile with a 3:59, split 3:58 in the DMR to upset Grant Fisher on the anchor, and has now dropped a 13 second personal best of 7:50 in the 3k to finish 4th at the Iowa State Classic. It's hard to dismiss his achievements so far this season. His racing tactics are sound, he's making solid progression, and he's showing that his range can extend to more than just one event. I would like to see what else he could do in the mile this season, but for now, I'm content with the performances that he has given us so far. GETTING WARMER Colby Gilbert (Washington) Admittedly, the start to Colby Gilbert's season was rather underwhelming. After a quiet cross country season, Gilbert moved to the track where he was expected to thrive. That was not the case, at least not immediately. Don't get me wrong, Gilbert's performances were solid. He opened up by tying his 1k PR with a 2:25 and followed that up with a 4:02 Mile performance. However, when you consider that he was on his home track and that he was entered against some of the best runners in the nation, it's hard not to think that he could have been faster. Just when it seemed that Colby Gilbert was out of the qualifying conversation, he comes out of nowhere to drop a huge time of 7:49 and win the Husky Classic 3k on his home track. Not only does that time put him at #4 in the NCAA, but the win shows that he can compete with other All-American favorites like Cameron Griffith and Cole Rockhold. The win is encouraging and there's a lot to like about a big time like that. That said, there is also a lot of work to do for Gilbert. He hasn't always been the most consistent and one race isn't going to magically make him an All-American this season. Still, this is a step in the right direction. Hopefully Gilbert can use this race as a momentum swing for the the Big Dance in March. Amos Bartelsmeyer (Georgetown) Much like Gilbert, the beginning of Bartelsmeyer's season was unexciting. After completing his rabbiting duties at the Navy Invite, he later hopped into a 600 at Penn State where he finished 8th overall. He would rabbit the 3000 meters in that same meet. The expectation for Bartelsmeyer was that he would truly open up his season at the Armory. Unfortunately, a 4:08 mile performance that put him 21st overall was a painful wake-up call. After a cross country season where he had only raced once and an East Preliminary round in the spring that concluded with a 17th place finish in the finals, you couldn't help but wonder when we would see the old Bartlesmeyer back in action. Luckily, our curiosity was put to rest this past weekend as an impressive field of professionals helped drag Bartelsmeyer to a new mile PR of 3:57.53 (NCAA #13). Bartelsmeyer should be safe to qualify for Nationals with that time, but there is still plenty work to do. After a disappointing finish to his 2017 spring track season and a nearly nonexistent cross country season, Bartelsmeyer has a lot to prove in a short period of time before he can be considered an All-American threat once again. Still, this PR is a strong step forward and simply getting into Nationals is a huge confidence booster and relief for almost anyone. COOLING OFF Grant Fisher (Stanford) Wait what? How does a guy run 7:48 and be classified on the lower-half of this spectrum? Allow me to explain... In the spring of 2017, Grant Fisher was unstoppable. He had developed a kick that made him untouchable. He scorched the PAC 12 field with a 51 second final 400 to take the 1500 meter title and later used that finishing speed to upset Justyn Knight and secure NCAA gold in the 5000 meters. That speed has been beneficial for Fisher, but it hasn't always worked, at least not as of late. A barrage of surges at Cross Country Nationals this past fall was enough to shake Fisher and force him to settle for 5th in that race. In the Power 5 Invite DMR, Indiana's Kyle Mau was able to match Fisher's 3:58 split and secure the Hoosiers an upset victory over Stanford. Now, just this past weekend, Fisher was out-kicked by Andy Trouard and finished 2nd overall despite running 7:48. Fisher is extremely talented and he is still very much in the NCAA title conversation. However, we have to start entertaining the fact that maybe he isn't as tactically savvy as we once thought he was. His past few races haven't been perfect and he's only finished 1st once since last spring (XC PAC-12's) when he won the NCAA 5k title. GETTING COLDER Liam Dee (Iona) It's been a while since we've seen Liam Dee on the track after Iona opted to redshirt him for the 2017 outdoor season. Maybe that's why he doesn't seem to have the same edge that we saw from him last winter season... The 2017 indoor track season was a series of breakout performances for Dee who secured personal bests of 3:58 and 8:02. After barely sneaking into Nationals, he would later go on to finish 7th in the Mile at Nationals, an All-American position. However, the 2018 season hasn't been as kind to Dee as 2017 was. The Iona junior ran an unimpressive 2:32 1k at the Mike Massone Invite in early January. After a solid 8:04 effort at the John Thomas Invite, Dee took to the mile at the Husky Classic. His final result in that race was sub-par as he would finish dead-last in his heat with an overall time of 4:00.95. There hasn't been a glaring race that Dee has really struggled in this season, but the performances he's had so far are not anywhere close to what a 3:58 miler should be running. Of course, it's important that we don't get too ahead of ourselves. Dee ran his 3:58 at the BU Last Chance meet last year which is how he got into Nationals. He's qualified for Nationals at the last moment before and he can definitely do it again. However, it will certainly be a lot harder for him when you consider that the Mile cut-off times are much quicker this year compared to last. John Lewis (Clemson) One of the great things about John Lewis is that he is incredibly consistent. Currently a junior, the Clemson mid-distance star has gone under the 1:50 barrier 21 times in his career. At beginning of the season, Lewis made a statement with a pair of strong off-distance results. His 2:21 1k was one of the fastest 1k's ever run collegiately since 2010. He later popped off a 4:06 mile which is an incredible time when you consider that Lewis was initially recruited to be a 400/800 specialist. With a personal best of 1:47 from this past spring, expectations were high for Lewis at beginning of this season. Unfortunately, Lewis has yet to produce an 800 this season that would match his 2:21 1k. In the three 800's that he has run this season, Lewis has recorded times of 1:49.22, 1:50.65, and 1:49.24. Lewis has incredibly underrated range and spectacular consistency. However, he's in a bit of rough spot when it comes to getting to the next level of fitness for the 800. DEEP FREEZE Justine Kiprotich (Michigan State) Last spring, Kiprotich was having a breakout track season. The Michigan State star was able to record personal bests of 1:49 and 3:42, secure five individual wins (including a BIG 10 title), and earn a silver medal at NCAA's in the 1500 meters. So whatever happened to one of the best milers in the nation from less than a year ago? Sometimes, certain guys just don't thrive during the indoor season. So far, Kiprotich has been entered in three 800's and has recorded times of 1:55, 1:52, and 1:50. At the very least, he's been improving on those results every time he has run it. Still, his overall performances have been relatively underwhelming and has left me curious as to why he hasn't run the Mile more often. At the Music City Challenge meet this past weekend, Kiprotich was finally entered in his best event: the Mile. However, he struggled against a relatively mild field and finished the day with a time of 4:08 in 8th overall. Although we put Kiprotich at the end of this temperature scale, we should at least recognize that, historically, he hasn't done well during indoors. Just last year, his season bests were 1:51 and 4:24. If he was able to come back in the spring and become a silver medalist, then we should at least expect him to do the same thing this spring. However, for as long as we are referencing indoors, Kiprotich doesn't seem to be near the point of fitness that we all saw him at last spring. Christian Sanders (LaSalle) One of the most underrated and under appreciated stories of the 2016 outdoor track season was seeing small-school 800 specialist Christian Sanders qualify for Nationals, run back-to-back PR's, earn a spot in the 800 finals, and end his junior year as an All-American. It was one of the best cinderella stories that the NCAA had seen in a long time, they just didn't know it. Fast forward to the 2017 indoor track season and things began to fall apart for Sanders. In the four 800's that he ran that season, he never ran faster than 1:51 despite owning a personal best of 1:46.52. After redshirting the 2017 outdoor track season, Sanders refocused his efforts to this season...so far it hasn't gone well. In the three 800's that he's had this season, Sanders has gone from 1:54 to 1:52 to 1:53. In fact, he even ran a 1k at the Mike Massone Invite and ended the day with a time of 2:48. Of course, that time is most likely the result of bad luck. There's a good chance that he fell during that race. Just like with Kiprotich, it's fair to say that some people just don't run well on the indoor oval. Sanders might be one of those guys and that's ok! With his final season of outdoor track eligibility fast approaching, we could see a huge return campaign that puts him back in the All-American conversation this spring. However, until then, Sanders will need to find a way out of this cold streak.

Clemson Tiger Paw Invite 800 With meets like Iowa State and the Husky Classic capturing most of the headlines this past weekend, it would have been easy to overlook some of the strong performances elsewhere in the nation. The Tiger Paw 800 was one of the deepest 800 fields we have seen yet this season with a total of 7 men dipping under the 1:50 mark. Taking home the win was Texas A&M's Devin Dixon who improved his NCAA ranking this season to a 1:47.37. He was able to convincingly hold off Mississippi State's Dejon Devroe who was 2nd in 1:48.43. Otis Jones (South Carolina) rounded out the top three with a 1:48.96. The other four men to dip under 1:50 were Robert Ford (USC), John Lewis (Clemson), Efrain Hernandez (Texas A&M), and Justin Pacifico (Florida). For Lewis, I've been expecting something a little faster from him ever since he popped off a monster 2:21 1k earlier this season. Mile One of the more pleasant surprises of this weekend was seeing Texas A&M's Alex Riba and Kentucky's Ben Young both dip under 4 minutes for the first time in their careers. Riba was the official winner while Ben Young was just a little behind. Both recorded times of 3:59. That won't be enough to qualify for NCAA's, but the results are still impressive nonetheless. Texas Tech Shootout 800 The winner of this one was Erik Martinsson (UT-Arlington) who was able to fend off 800 specialist Vincent Crisp (Texas Tech) and sophomore Michael Rhoads (Air Force). All three of these men recorded a time of 1:49. Music City Challenge 800 The Virginia Tech men went to work this past weekend as Patrick Joseph and Neil Gourley went 1-2 in this event running 1:49.40 and 1:49.57, respectively. 5000 Peter Seufer (Virginia Tech) was able to fend off Michigan State's Clark Ruiz for the win. Seufer recorded a time of 14:15 while Ruiz was two seconds behind in 14:17. BU David Henry Valentine Invite 800 In a field of professionals, Marc Reinas (Northeastern) was the collegiate who stood out the most with a finish of 1:48.60. Leakey Kipkosgei (American International) was also able to dip under the 1:50 barrier with a time of 1:49.41 while Harvard's Myles Marshall didn't have his best day and had to settle for a time of 1:50.47. The good news for Reinas is that his time is a new PR and also moves him in the NCAA rankings. Unfortunately, that time moves him up only to the dreaded 17th spot, the first man out of Nationals. Luckily for Reinas, it appears that Kerr (NCAA #11) will most likely scratch this event in favor of the mile. 1000 Brown's Zach Lanigan continues to produce some solid times this season as he finished 2nd overall in this race with a huge time of 2:22.81. Princeton's Sam Ellis was the next closest collegiate finisher in a time of 2:24. Mile In what had to be one of the most underrated events of the weekend, the BU mile put together an excellent number of strong results. The top three finishers in this one were all pros, but they did help Georgetown's Amos Bartelsmeyer return to the All-American conversation with a time of 3:57 (NCAA #13). That is a huge time for the Hoya veteran who really didn't have any exciting performances leading up to now. Behind Bartelsmeyer was a pair of solid results from Michael Hall (Florida State) and Mark Martinez (Brown). Both individuals dipped under 4 minutes for the first time in their careers. Each individual recorded 3:59's. For Martinez, this time wasn't out of the question after his 7:59 3k a few weeks ago. For Hall, this time was very unexpected. He had never run a full mile faster than 4:03 before. Much like Riba and Young at Clemson, it's exciting to see these guys go under 4 minutes. Unfortunately, they are still a few seconds off from that NCAA qualifying spot. 5000 The UVA men took to the 5k this past weekend and were able to record some strong results. Brent Demarest was the top collegiate overall with an excellent time of 13:56. Teammate Chase Weaverling was next man in with a time of 14:05. Don Kirby Elite Mile UTEP alum and Nike pro Anthony Rotich came back to the collegiate scene and helped pace UTEP's Jonah Koech to a FAST mile. Koech would end the day with a time of 4:01, but with altitude conversions, his time then became 3:55! That time now currently sits at NCAA #3. Koech and Coach Ereng must have known that his 3:58 from earlier in the season wasn't going to be enough to qualify for NCAA's. Now, Koech no longer needs to stress about racing for time. He can begin to shift his attention to Nationals. Husky Classic Mile There was plenty of attention on the 3k and 5k fields at this meet, but the mile entries were just as exciting. The Oregon men went back to work this weekend as veteran Sam Prakel reestablished himself on the NCAA leaderboard with a winning time of 3:56.89! Incredibly, that time is only good enough for the 8th best ranking in the NCAA right now. Freshman Reed Brown (Oregon) was close behind in a 3:57 personal best for him. He currently sits at 10th in the NCAA rankings. Both Oregon men are most likely safe when it comes to qualifying for Nationals. When it comes to the National qualifying picture, the 3rd overall finisher in this race is where things get a little blurry. Carlos Villareal (Arizona) had never broken 4 minute prior to this season. Now, the Arizona senior has worked his time down to a 3:57.64 (NCAA #14). If I had to guess, that time should hold up and be enough for him to qualify for NCAA's. However, with championship season around the corner, you can never be too sure... Sam Worley (Texas) continued his impressive streak of mile performances, this time with a 3:58.04. He was able to get the best of Mick Stanovsek (Oregon) who finished the day with a 3:58. Matthew Fayers (Oklahoma State) and Blake Haney (Oregon) were the final men to go under 4 minutes as Fayers recorded a time of 3:58.44 while Haney had to settle for a 3:59.01. With Haney now under 4 minutes, the Oregon men have FIVE individuals under the 4 minute barrier this season. Unfortunately for Haney, that time won't be enough to qualify for Nationals. Yet, maybe the most heartbreaking performance of the day had to be Alex Rogers. Despite a PR of 3:40 in the 1500, the Texas senior had never broken 4 minutes in the mile. He finished the day as the 8th collegiate overall...with a time of 4:00.00. Expect Rogers to pursue the mile once more at SEC's next weekend. 3000 What a race by Colby Gilbert! After a season of average and unexciting performances, the Washington senior came out on his home track and threw down the hammer to take the win over one of the most elite fields the nation has seen this season. Gilbert recorded a time of 7:49.42 which was enough to fend off Arkansas' Cameron Griffith who was 2nd in a time of 7:49.78. Not only is this a huge momentum shift for Gilbert, but it also gives validation to Griffith who has shown that he is very much the "real deal" this season and should be in the All-American conversation. The 3rd collegiate to cross the line was Colorado State's Cole Rockhold who ended the day with a school record of 7:50! I have always thought of him as a miler, but after a performance like that, it's hard to think otherwise. This kid is for real and will be a favorite to grab All-American once again. How about David Ribich (Western Oregon)? This guy just continues to impress with a 7:50 of his own. He was joined by Ben Saarel (Colorado) who also recorded a time of 7:50. For Ribich, does this mean he tries mile/3k/DMR triple at Nationals? Probably not, but it's an interesting proposition... As we continue to scroll down the results, we'll see Oregon's James West finishing 6th overall with a time of 7:51. That time currently puts him at NCAA #10 and should be enough for him to qualify for Nationals. West was able to hold off Southern Utah's Mike Tate who ran 7:51 on tired legs after a huge performance in the 5k the night before (although we'll get to that later). The Oregon men continued to shine as freshman Cooper Teare clicked off a time of 7:53 to outlast studs like Boise State's Addison DeHaven (7:54), Southern Utah's Kasey Knevelbaard (7:54), and Washington's Fred Hudham (7:56). In total, 16 men went under the 8 minute barrier. Of those 16 men, 10 of them were at the Division One level. 5000 Let's rewind to Day One of this meet and talk about some of the monster performances we saw. With Justyn Knight headlining the field at Iowa State, many were unsure if this field was going to be nearly as fast. If you made that assumption, you were wrong. In a field with no clear-cut favorite, Southern Utah's Mike Tate came out of nowhere to not only earn a win, but dominate. He was the top overall finisher and best collegiate by over four seconds. With a time of 13:37, he now sits at NCAA #1 on the leaderboards. Tate had a similar performance last spring where he soloed a 13:39 and came back to run 13:34. To run 13:37 on an indoor track just goes to show what kind of fitness he's in. After a quiet season without seeing much of Oklahoma State, Hassan Abdi brought them back in the national spotlight with a huge 13:41 of his own. He was able to defeat long-distance studs like Arkansas' Jack Bruce (13:43), Colorado State's Grant Fischer (13:44), and Adam State's Sydney Gidabuday (13:50). Yet, the one name we didn't mention was Oregon's Tanner Anderson who had the race of his life with a HUGE personal best of 13:43 for 5th overall. On an Oregon team with so much talent, it's easy to forget about a talented guy like this. For him to run an 8 second PR now puts him in another league in terms of fitness. With experience of racing at Nationals in his back pocket, Anderson should now be considered in the All-American conversation. It's also important to note that Butler's Barry Keane was the only freshman in this race to dip under the 14 minute barrier with a time of 13:58. In an event that is often dominated by juniors and seniors, the younger guy ran incredibly well. In total, 18 men in this race ended the day with sub-14 minute results. Iowa State Classic 800 With two heats of elite talent, the 800 was bound to be madness (and it definitely was). In the fastest heat of the day, we saw Isaiah Harris (Penn State) run 1:47.38 to outlast Indiana's Daniel Kuhn (1:47.89) and BYU's Abraham Alvarado (1:47.98). Harris has yet to lose an 800 yet this season after securing a win at the Penn State National meet and now securing a win at ISU. However, despite Harris winning the "fast heat", he wasn't at the top of the results. In 2nd to last heat, we saw a deep field that included Robert Heppenstall (Wake Forest), Avery Bartlett (Georgia Tech), Roshon Roomes (Iowa State), Carter Lilly (Iowa), Clay Lambourne (Utah State), and Bryce Hoppel (Kansas). The main battle in this heat would come down to Hoppel and Heppenstall. It wouldn't be until the final straightaway that Hoppel pulled away from Heppenstall and finished the day with a HUGE personal best time of 1:47.09. That time was enough to put Hoppel ahead of Harris in the overall results. We have to start recognizing Hoppel as a legitimate threat to be on the podium this year. As of right now, no one looks like they're capable of touching Saruni. However, Harris appears to be vulnerable at times and Hoppel's ability to run well tactically has been impressive. In total, 13 collegiates ended the day under the 1:50 barrier. Mile Admittedly, we didn't see a superstar field that the other events had, but there were still a slew of strong performances. Ole Miss freshman Waleed Suliman was the winner in this one with a time of 4:00. He was able to outlast Kigen Chemadi (MTSU), Daniel Gagne (Bradley), and Joseph Murphy (Indiana). All three ran 4:01. 3000 Upset alert! In a race that Stanford's Grant Fisher was favored to take, NAU's Andy Trouard had other plans. In the final lap, Fisher made an attempt to fend off a hard charging Trouard. Unfortunately for Fisher, his efforts weren't enough as Trouard made a move on the final straightaway to edge him at the line. For Trouard, this has to be a massive confidence booster. He was the top collegiate miler at the UW Invite a few weeks ago and now he takes down Grant Fisher in an NCAA #2 time of 7:48. This man is on fire so far and now leaves us wondering whether or not he'll double at NCAA's. Of the 14 finishers in this field, all but one were able to dip under the 8 minute barrier. How about redshirt freshman Jonathan Davis (Illinois) running 7:49 for 3rd? There was skepticism regarding his flat-track conversion of 3:55 for the mile, but he is certainly in the best shape of his life after his performance in the 3k this past weekend. Kyle Mau (Indiana) continues to impress me. He ran 3:59 earlier this season, split 3:58 to out run Grant Fisher in a DMR, and now finishes 4th with a 7:50 in a loaded ISU race. I thought this guy was more of a miler, but after a race like that, I'm beginning to think otherwise. Oliver Hoare (Wisconsin) and Matthew Baxter (NAU) put up solid performances running 7:51 and 7:53 respectively. Hoare was a bit more patient in this one while Baxter had more of an aggressive front-running style. Tyler Day, who is running unattached this season, was only a second behind Baxter. Finally, I think it's important to note that Edwin Kurgat is adjusting rather well to being at Iowa State. Since transferring from Tennessee-Martin to Iowa State, the XC All-American has improved his 3k PR from 8:29 to 8:15 to 7:56. Talk about progression... 5000 (Open) In our Predictions & Previews article for the Iowa State Classic, I mentioned that the BYU men "could surprise a few people and help someone dip into the low 13:50's" or even "into the high 13:40's". It appears that my hunch was correct. Connor McMillan (BYU) the Open section winner with a huge time of 13:48.00. He was able to bring Ben Flanagan (Michigan) with him as he recorded a time of 13:48.58 for 2nd overall. Jaret Carpeter (Purdue) snuck under the 13:50 mark and finished the day with a time of 13:49.32. As of right now, McMillan and Flanagan are currently ranked 17th and 18th in the NCAA, respectively. If they don't move back any further in the rankings, they may have a shot at qualifying for Nationals depending on who scratches. 5000 (Invite) Justyn Knight (Syracuse) was expected to take the win and he did just that as he rolled to a huge time of 13:39 for the win. So far this season, Knight has slowly built his way up in the racing distances with a 3:55 mile, 7:45 3k, and now 13:39 5k. Despite Knight throwing down a huge kick to gap the field, there were still plenty of talented individuals hot on his tail. Dillon Maggard (Utah State) and Vincent Kiprop (Alabama) had strong closes of their own and settled for times of 13:40. Rory Linkletter (BYU) was able to use a kick of his own and finish among the top five with a time of 13:41. Lawrence Kipkoech (Campbell), Daniel Carney (BYU), and Jacob Thomson (Kentucky) all had huge personal bests of 13:41. In total, 16 of the 18 men in this race finished under the 14 minute barrier. Giving everyone in that field a mention would be a little dry. However, here are a few quick takeaways... - BYU is for real. Daniel Carney just had the breakout race of his life. - Alabama put three men under 13:50. That is super impressive. - NAU continues to build for the future. Redshirt freshman Blaise Ferro just ran 13:51. He is the future of this Lumberjacks program. - Jacob Thomson (Kentucky) has really upped his fitness this season. He's put together a string of solid performances and has yet to have a "bad" race. Think of him as a potential All-American in March.

Husky Classic 800 As we review the entries for this event, there are a variety of solid athletes sprinkled throughout the field. The fast heat will feature a pair of sub 1:50 guys in Idaho State's Daniel Garz (1:49) and Wyoming's Ricky Faure (1:48). We first saw Garz dip under the 1:50 at the end last spring season, although he has yet to break 1:51 this season (despite hitting the mark three different times). Meanwhile, Faure is coming off of a disappointing mile appearance at the Colorado Invite where he finished last overall. When you add these individuals into a field that hold pros like Ryan Martin, Harun Abda, and Clayton Murphy, it's hard to think that Garz or Faure couldn't run a fast time. Others to watch include Washington's Devan Kirk, Washington State's Justin Janke, and Penn State's Billy McDevitt. FINAL PREDICTIONS (COLLEGE ONLY) 1. Daniel Garz (Idaho State) 2. Billy McDevitt (Penn State) 3. Ricky Faure (Wyoming) Mile This event will be an exciting one as each heat is set to become progressively faster when you look at the talent throughout the field. In heat 6 of 7, we'll begin to see some potential sub-4 minute miles. Alex Rogers (Texas), based on PR's, is most likely the favorite in his heat when you consider his 1:48/3:40 range. However, he'll have to deal with the reemergence of Adam's State Elias Gedyon as well as rising stars like Ethan Moehn (Arkansas), Joe Maloney (Weber State), and Austin Tomagno (Oregon). Thomas Coyle is also a sub-4 miler in his own right, but he is still fighting to hit that mark for the first time since his sophomore year. Overall, if the race comes down to speed, Rogers, Mohen, and Tomagno may be best suited to succeeded when you consider their accolades in the 800 and 1k. As we work into the entries of the final heat, we'll notice a lot of talented top-tier names. The Nike Bowerman duo of Evan Jager and Lopez Lomong will toe the line to battle it out with some of the best collegiates on the west (and occasionally the east) coast. The first few names we need to look at come from the Oregon men. Mick Stanovsek, Reed Brown, Sam Prakel, and Blake Haney will battle it out in an effort to better their NCAA ranking to solidify their spot to Nationals. Stanovsek appears to be the only Duck who isn't in real jeopardy of potentially losing that qualifying spot. Meanwhile, Blake Haney hasn't even dipped under the 4 minute mark yet this season. If he is able to get under it this weekend, will it even be enough? Arizona's Carlos Villareal is in a similar situation and he went under the 4-minute barrier for the time in his career just few weeks ago. With a PR of 3:59, even he admitted that it may not be enough to qualify to the Big Dance (it won't be). Maybe Texas freshman star Sam Worley is feeling the same pressure despite earning an altitude conversion of 3:58 last week. He'll be entering this race as well to further improve his mile qualifying time. Arkansas' Cameron Griffith is coming off of an outstanding 3k debut a few weeks ago while Matthew Fayers (Oklahome State) and Liam Dee (Iona) are looking to become repeat achievers within the sub-4 mile club. For some of these guys, there is a lot on the line, so don't expect the race to go out slow, especially with some elite professionals sprinkled throughout the field. Many guys are on the cusp of getting into NCAA's so they can't let this race get away from them in terms of the pacing. FINAL PREDICTIONS (COLLEGE ONLY) 1. Sam Prakel (Oregon) 2. Mick Stanovsek (Oregon) 3. Carlos Villareal (Arizona) 4. Cameron Griffith (Arkansas) 5. Blake Haney (Oregon) 6. Reed Brown (Oregon) 7. Liam Dee (Iona) 8. Alex Rogers (Texas) 9. Matthew Fayers (Oklahoma State) 10. Austin Tomagno (Oregon) 3000 Much like the mile, this event could provide a lot of excitement. The 4th of the five heats will be where things get interesting when you consider entries such as Trent Powell (Colorado State), Dustin Nading (Western Oregon), John Rice (Texas), Daniel Garcia (Butler), and Eduardo Herrera (Colorado). However, the final heat is where things get really interesting. Two weeks off from his breakout 3:58 mile performance, David "Mr. 501" Ribich is ready to return to the track, this time in the 3000 meters. The WO senior has already shown off some impressive speed with a 2:21 1k earlier this season, but now we get to see what his endurance is like. Of course, Ribich will have his hands full with this field. He'll be facing off against D2 distance specialist Sydney Gidabuday (Adams State) who can boast personal bests of 7:56 and 13:37. Another notable name is Cooper Teare who will be attempting his first non-mile collegiate race this weekend. I'll be curious to see how he handles the upped level of competition in a race that he has yet to race in (collegiately). The Arkansas duo of Cameron Griffith and Jake Bruce are also set to race, although it may make more sense for Griffith to race in the mile and Bruce to race in the 5k when you consider that both athletes currently rank top 10 in the nation for the 3k. The milers from the Colorado Invite are also making a trip to the UW facility as they attempt to go up in distance from last week. Both Zach Perrin and Ben Saarel will look to build on their 1-2 finish from last week while Cole Rockhold will attempt to show off why he was an All-American in this event last year. There are plenty of other big-time names to mention, but a few others to keep an eye out for include Mike Tate (Southern Utah), Jeff Thies (Portland), Colby Gilbert (Washington), and Garrett Corcoran (California). FINAL PREDICTIONS (COLLEGE ONLY) 1. Zach Perrin (Colorado) 2. Cole Rockhold (Colorado State) 3. Ben Saarel (Colorado) 4. Sydney Gidabuday (Adams State) 5. David Ribich (Western Oregon) 6. Jeff Thies (Portland) 7. Cooper Teare (Oregon) 8. Garrett Corcoran (California) 9. Kasey Knevelbaard (Southern Utah) 10. Zach Long (Tennessee) 5000 The last distance event that we'll cover is actually very similar to the field we'll see in the 3k as Gidabuday, Bruce, and Tate are all entered in this event again. I find it more likely that we see Bruce and Tate actually step on the track for the 5k rather than the 3k. Of course, there is more talent than just those three. Alex George (Arkansas) will step onto the track for the first time in a while in an attempt to show that he has still maintained his endurance from the fall. On the flip side, Colorado State's Grant Fischer is coming off of a sub 8 minute 3k time (converted) and is looking to add a well-rounded 5k to his resume this season. Fischer, however, will not be able to shake the man who beat him last week. Colorado's Ryan Forsyth is fresh off of a 3k win at the Colorado Invite last week and is looking to tack on another win. Luckily for Fischer, the 5k is an event that favors him more than it does Forsyth. Yet, if there is one guy that I'll be watching the most, it has to be UCLA's Robert Brandt. He hit an 8:01 3k earlier this season at the Armory, but the 5k may the event that is better suited for him. With a personal best of 13:45 from his time with California, it's hard to dismiss this guy as a potential top three finisher. There are a slew of other men that could be legitimate threats to place at the top of this field. Hassan Abdi (Oklahoma State), Emmanuel Roudolff-Levisse (Portland), Gilbert Kirui (Iona), Tanner Anderson (Oklahoma State), and Emmanuel Rotich (Tulane) are just a few names of guys who could potentially put together a surprise finish in this event. At the same time, be sure not to sleep on Butler's Barry Keane or the Air Force trio of Mickey Davey, Jacob Bilvado, and Andrew Johnston. Of these four, one of them is due for a breakout race. FINAL PREDICTIONS (COLLEGE ONLY) 1. Grant Fischer (Colorado State) 2. Emmanuel Rotich (Tulane) 3. Robert Brandt (UCLA) 4. Ryan Forsyth (Colorado) 5. Hassan Abdi (Oklahoma State) 6. Jack Bruce (Arkansas) 7. Alex George (Arkansas) 8. Emmanuel Roudolff-Levisse (Portland) 9. Barry Keane (Butler) 10. Tanner Anderson (Oregon) Iowa State Classic 800 As we review the entries for the ISU Classic, you can't help but get excited about the times we could see here this weekend. In the fastest heat of the day, Isaiah Harris (Penn State) will return to the track in order to improve his NCAA #5 time of 1:47. Although he will be the favorite, he'll have to battle with other 800 studs like BYU's Abraham Alvarado and Indiana's Daniel Kuhn. Kuhn hasn't been the same elite 800 runner that we have grown used to seeing, but this would be a great opportunity to get his groove back and run under that 1:49 mark. He does own a PR of 1:46 after all... Dylan Capwell (Monmouth) will also be in this field as he looks to continue his comeback campaign and reestablish himself among the elite 800 runners in the nation. Yet, as fast as the final heat might be, the 8th heat could be just as fast if not faster. Iowa's Carter Lilly will return to the half-mile distance in an effort to battle 4x All-American Robert Heppenstall (Wake Forest). Others like Roshon Roomes (Iowa State), Bryce Hoppel (Kansas), Avery Bartlett (Georgia Tech), and Clay Lambourne (Utah State) will all be entered in this field as they look to better their NCAA qualifying time and secure themselves a spot to the Big Dance. With qualifying position on the line, expect most of these races to go out fast. Many of these guys can't afford to let things get slow. FINAL PREDICTIONS (COLLEGE ONLY) 1. Abraham Alvarado (BYU) 2. Isaiah Harris (Penn State) 3. Robert Heppenstall (Wake Forest) 4. Dylan Capwell (Monmouth) 5. Daniel Kuhn (Indiana) 6. Bryce Hoppel (Kansas) 7. Avery Bartlett (Georgia Tech) 8. Jaymes Dennison (Iowa State) 9. Clay Lambourne (Utah State) 10. Roshon Roomes (Iowa State) Mile We may only have half the number of heats in the 800, but this field is still set to produce some strong results. In heat 3 of 4, we could see a few rising stars have their breakout race. Former JUCO star and current Iowa State Cyclone Festus Lagat appears to be making his season debut in this event while other low-key milers Taylor FloydMews (Bradley), Shane Streich (Minnesota), David Graham (BYU), and Parker Scott (Ole Miss) are all potential names that could upset him for the win in this heat. Yet, the biggest name to watch in heat 3 has to be Michigan's Connor Mora who, oddly enough, didn't qualify for the fast heat of this event (although teammate Chase Barnett did with a 4:03 PR). Mora will be the favorite in this field, but he shouldn't expect too many others to push the pace in this one when you consider how much of the heavy favorite he is. As we transition away from heat 3 and begin our discussion about heat 4, there isn't much that changes. Bradley's Daniel Gagne will be the big name to watch in this one as he makes one last hard effort to go under the 4 minute barrier. He was so close at the UW Invite a few weeks ago, so now appears to be his last big chance to do so. Gagne will have to battle some of the best rising milers out there such as Chase Barnett (Michigan), Dan Curts (Iowa State), and Christopher Marco (Monmouth). All of these guys have been a few ticks away from dipping under the 4 minute barrier, so expect someone to take this pace out hard as they attempt to establish themselves at the top of the NCAA leaderboard. Yet, out of all of these names, the most glaring miss has to be Sean McGorty who was originally entered in this event prior to the release of the heat sheets. We didn't see him on the DMR at the Power 5 Invite and now we aren't seeing him at ISU. What is Stanford doing with one of the biggest stars in the NCAA? Other notable names to watch include Kigen Chemadi (Mid. Tenn. State), Waleed Suliman (Ole Miss), Joseph Murphy (Indiana), and Bryan Kamau (Georiga). FINAL PREDICTIONS (COLLEGE ONLY) 1. Daniel Gagne (Bradley) 2. Chase Barnett (Michigan) 3. Dan Curts (Iowa State) 4. Connor Mora (Michigan) 5. Festus Lagat (Iowa State) 6. Waleed Suliman (Ole Miss) 7. David Graham (BYU) 3000 (Open + Invite) In the fastest heat of the Open section, we'll get to see Michigan's Aaron Baumgarten battle it out with XC breakout star Nahon Solomon (Georgia Tech). Those two, along with Bradley's Michael Ward, most likely help push the pace in an effort to put themselves at the top of the NCAA leaderboard. Neither Baumgarten nor Solomon have gone under the 8 minute barrier yet this season, but Michael Ward did run a very fast 7:58 in Washington a few weeks ago. Of course, the race is bound to be fast when you involve the BYU men. The Cougs will be fielding Kramer Morton and Jacob Heslington in hopes that they could break the 8 minute barrier (and potentially go even faster). Others to watch out for include Casey Comber (Villanova) and Noah Schutte (Portland). As we transition away from the Open section, we finally get to the invite section where things become much faster and much more interesting. Grant Fisher (Stanford) will be the headline name in this field as he looks to attempt his first open event as an attached collegiate since entering the Stanford program. With a personal best of 7:50 from his freshman year when he ran unattached, he should be one of the favorites to win it all. Yet, despite Fisher's elite status within the running community, he'll have his hands full with plenty of other collegiate talent. Tyler Day, although redshirting, will be entered and he just came off of a mile performance where he ran a converted time of 3:56. Clearly, Day is in shape and has the capability of winning it all this weekend (although since he is unattached, he won't be counted in our predictions). Speaking of fast converted miles, Illinois' Jonathan Davis will be seeing how far his range extends as he is set to enter this race as well. Davis caught the attention of many NCAA fans around the nation after running a 3:58 mile on a flat-track at the beginning of the season. That time was eventually given a conversion of 3:55. A good race for him here could do wonders for his confidence and give validation to his monster mile performance from a few weeks ago. As we stay on the topic of fast milers, the top collegiate finisher at the UW Invite mile (Andy Trouard) is also set to enter. For most of his career, he has been recognized as a miler, but a big race for him here gives him the luxury of escaping a deep mile field and pursuing the 3k at Nationals. Returning to the 3000 is Wisconsin's Oliver Hoare who ran a monster 7:54 time at the Armory a few weeks ago. He'll be looking to better his time and get key experience against some of the NCAA's best prior to Nationals. Joining Hoare from the Armory is Iowa State's own Andrew Jordan who ran 7:56 in that race. That time, although fast, probably won't be enough for Jordan to get into NCAA's (and it appears that Coach Smith knows that). Jordan will make one last hard effort in this event to improve his time in the rankings. Other names to look out for include Ben Veatch (Indiana), Kyle Mau (Indiana), Aidan Tooker (Syracuse), Matthew Baxter (NAU), Colin Abert (Penn State), Sean Tobin (Ole Miss), and Jack Keelan (Stanford). FINAL PREDICTIONS (COLLEGE ONLY) <-- OPEN 1. Grant Fisher (Stanford) 2. Andy Trouard (Northern Arizona) 3. Oliver Hoare (Wisconsin) 4. Jonathan Davis (Illinois) 5. Andrew Jordan (Iowa State) 6. Matthew Baxter (Northern Arizona) 7. Ben Veatch (Indiana) 8. Aidan Tooker (Syracuse) FINAL PREDICTIONS (COLLEGE ONLY) <-- INVITE 1. Michael Ward (Bradley) 2. Aaron Baumgarten (Michigan) 3. Nahom Solomon (Georgia Tech) 4. Noah Schutte (Portland) 5. Jacob Heslington (BYU) 6. Kramer Morton (BYU) 7. Casey Comber (Villanova) 5000 (Open + Invite) Finally, the biggest event of the weekend! The performance list gave us a taste of what we could expect and the heat sheets have only confirmed out suspicions. Let's see if we can break down all of this madness at once... The Open section for meets like these usually has a bad rep for being "boring" but the entries listed here are far from it. BYU's Clayton Young has a 13:45 PR and will headline the field along with teammate's Conner Mantz and Connor McMillan. These three along with the field, could surprise a few people and help someone dip into the low 13:50's. Heck, it's possible that someone dips into the high 13:40's... Guys like Philo Germano (Syracuse), Ben Flanagan (Michigan), and Jaret Carpenter (Purdue) will be interesting names to watch, especially when you consider that most of their training and racing has been long-distance oriented throughout most of their careers. Flanagan will be one of the biggest names on my radar this week after he hopped out of the Power 5 Invite 5k with just 800 meters to go. Maybe it was just a fluke, but you have to hope that he'll healthy enough to give it another go this weekend. Peter Lomong (NAU) was an interesting entry that caught my eye. After his breakout 8th place finish at XC Nationals this past fall, I think we all knew that we would see him in longer races like these. Still, I question whether or not he can replicate that kind of magic on the track. Other names to keep an eye out for include Tim McGowan (Penn State), Aaron Templeton (Furman), Cory Glines (NAU), and Andrew Marston (Villanova). Now, we get into the part that everyone wants to talk about: The Invite 5k. This field is absolutely stacked with some of the NCAA best distance runners set to compete. As most of you have heard, Justyn Knight is the main name to watch in all of this. He's coming off of 3:55 and 7:45 mile and 3k performances over the past two weeks. This man is on fire and should the heavy favorite to take it all. Yet, just like Fisher, Knight will have his hands full when you look at some of the elite talent in this field. The entire Alabama trio is entered this race, so you can expect one of them to push the pace and keep things honest even after the rabbit steps off. Even if they don't end the day with a fast time, they will certainly not let things get slow. The same goes for Campbell's Lawrence Kipkoech who has been known to push the pace in big races such as this. That, of course, plays well into the hands of guys with some of the best PR's in the field such as Rory Linkletter (BYU) and Dillon Maggard (Utah State). Linkletter boasts "only" a PR of 13:49, although his 7:55 3k and 28:58 10k tell us that he could go faster. Maggard, on the other hand, has the 5k PR of 13:41 to back up our hype. It also helps that he secured the win at the UW Invite with a 7:52 earlier this season. Simply put, Maggard is in some wicked shape and should not be taken lightly. If we mention Rory Linkletter, that means we can't leave out his BYU brethren. Daniel Carney and Clayson Shumway are guys that I'll be watching in this race. When racing together in elite fields like this, the Cougars have always found a way to be successful. I'm expecting all three of these athletes to be under 14 minutes by the end of the weekend. Jonathan Green (Georgetown) is a name that should definitely be on your radar. He quietly put together some very solid performances over the cross country season and could do so here in one of the fastest 5k's in the country. Historically, he has done well with faster competition, so this race should be beneficial for him. It's impossible to mention everyone, but you should also keep your eyes on Jacob Thomson (Kentucky). The man soloed a 7:53 3k earlier this year. I'll be curious to see how he handles a crowded field of talent that is just as good as him. Finally, I think it's important to note that Wisconsin's Joe Hardy is entered this field. The Badger senior had a huge cross country season this past fall and has maintained that fitness throughout this winter. He ran 7:57 for 3k a few weeks ago, so expect a increase in the racing distance to benefit him. Other names in this field include Amon Kemboi (Campbell), Azaria Kirwa (Liberty), Blaise Ferro (NAU), Arsene Guillorel (Samford), Iliass Aouani (Syracuse), and Steven Fahy (Stanford). FINAL PREDICTIONS (COLLEGE ONLY) <-- OPEN 1. Clayton Young (BYU) 2. Philo Germano (Syracuse) 3. Connor McMillan (BYU) 4. Ben Flanagan (Michigan) 5. Jaret Carpenter (Purdue) 6. Aaron Templeton (Furman) 7. Conner Mantz (BYU) 8. Tim McGowan (Penn State) 9. Andrew Marston (Villanova) 10. Peter Lomong (Northern Arizona) FINAL PREDICTIONS (COLLEGE ONLY) <-- OPEN 1. Justyn Knight (Syracuse) 2. Dillon Maggard (Utah State) 3. Rory Linkletter (BYU) 4. Alfred Chelenga (Alabama) 5. Jonathan Green (Georgetown) 6. Jacob Thomson (Kentucky) 7. Daniel Carney (BYU) 8. Joe Hardy (Wisconsin) 9. Lawrence Kipkoech (Campbell) 10. Clayson Shumway (BYU)

As some of the current readers know, in January of 2015, I began my writing career with a site called Etrain. During my time with Etrain, one of my more popular series of articles was my Show My The Money series where I used stock market terms to describe the trend among runners. Now, after a year hiatus without an article, we're bringing the series back for one more go. For those who aren't familiar with the stock market, there are really only three terms that you need to know: Bullish, Bearish, and Neutral. Bullish means that current data, trends, and speculation suggest that a stock (or in this case a runner) are moving in a positive upward manner. The value of that stock/runner is projected to be higher in the future. Bearish means the exact opposite. A stock/runner is lacking growth, generating poor results, and simply not meeting expectations. The value of that stock/runner is projected be lower in the future. Neutral is exactly what it sounds like. A certain stock or runner is hitting expectations, but they aren't surpassing them either. They are in the middle of the road in terms of speculation and therefore not expecting a lot of change in the future. Using these terms, we've evaluated some key teams, fields, and runners throughout the NCAA and given our thoughts on whether they are Bullish, Bearish, or Neutral. BULLISH: Mississippi State 800 Runners Mississippi State half-milers have been on fire so far this season. When they debuted at the Vanderbilt Invite, the Bulldogs saw three of their men run 1:50 or faster. Fast forward two weeks and they continued to shatter expectations. Marco Arop proved that he was the real deal by defeating Harvard's Myles Marshall and securing a PR of 1:47.62. Dejon Devroe followed up his 1:49 at Vanderbilt with a 1:48 at Boston. Daniel Nixon also made a one second improvement by going from 1:50 to 1:49. Overall, the Mississippi State men have shown that not only do they have depth, but they are making consistent improvements over time. What makes this even better is that Arop is a freshman and Nixon is a sophomore. These guys have years left of terrorizing their NCAA opponents. With enough time develop, they become just as dangerous as Brandon McBride was in his final year with Mississippi State. The program does have a history of producing top talent in this event. When you consider the depth, the youth, the development, and the history of this program, it's hard not to like where Mississippi State is at right now. BEARISH: The 800 Field Despite the positive things said about the 800 runners of Mississippi State, the overall 800 field around the NCAA simply doesn't appear to be as strong as it has been in the past. With only two to three weekends of legitimate competition left, a total of 28 men have broken the 1:50 barrier. At the end of the 2016 indoor season, we saw an incredible total of 85 men under that time. The 2017 season wasn't too far behind that number either with a total of 73 individuals under the 1:50 mark. You would have to triple the current number of men under the 1:50 mark so far this season just to match up the totals we've saw in 2016. Aside from Saruni, there haven't been that many stand-out performers either. Isaiah Harris has only made one legitimate effort at a fast 800 (where he ran 1:47) while established stars like Daniel Kuhn, Robert Heppenstall, and Avery Bartlett have yet to even crack 1:49 this season. In fact, guys like Patrick Joseph and Joe White haven't even run an 800 yet! Where are the slew of elite athletes we expected to crowd this field? BULLISH: Kyle Mau How about Kyle Mau so far this season? The Indiana sophomore was on my radar entering this season after a strong collegiate debut during his freshman year last winter. So far, Mau has recorded four individual wins, a 3:59 personal best in the mile, and an 8:03 personal best in the 3k. Yet, what really captured my attention was seeing Mau hold off Grant Fisher with a 3:58 mile split to upset Stanford's DMR at the Power 5 Invite. The times may not be super flashy, but when you look at his development and ability to win, Mau is certainly trending in the right direction. This weekend, the Hoosier star will be running the 3k at the ISU Classic where he hopes to lower to secure a NCAA qualifying spot. I imagine his next move would be racing a mile at BIG 10's to further improve that time. If that is the case, then Mau has two more solid and exciting chances to make it to Big Dance in March. NEUTRAL: Converted Milers Just a few days ago, we addressed a certain question in our TSR Mailbag in regards the validity of these converted mile times. Skepticism related to these conversions come up every year when someone runs a fast time. This past weekend, it was Kasey Knevelbaard running a 3:55 converted mile from altitude. Earlier this season, it was Jonathan Davis running a 3:55 converted mile from a flat-track. Most of these times, a lot of these performances can be backed up with an equivalent time at sea-level or a impressive string of results that go into the postseason (i.e. becoming an All-American). Yet, we still have to ask ourselves whether or not Jonathan Davis and Kasey Knevelbaard are REALLY 3:55 milers. Don't get me wrong, both of these guys are incredible talents and I have let them go unnoticed before. Still, as a redshirt freshman, are we ready to say that Jonathan Davis could actually run a 3:55 mile? With a 1500 PR of 3:41, Knevelbaard's mile PR should be closer to something like 3:57.93. Of course, we've seen this happen before in 2015 when Cristian Soratos came out of nowhere to run an altitude converted mile of 3:56 and later threw down a 3:55 mile at the Husky Classic. Still, you can't but be cautious of some of these times. History says to trust these times, but the performances leading up to those results for Knevelbaard and Davis haven't given me the same confidence that those conversions say I should have. BEARISH: Robert Domanic Entering this season, I couldn't help but be excited about the potential of the Ole Miss mile star Robert Domanic. After a very quiet spring season, the Mississippi Rebel had a breakout performance in the mile this past summer with a huge 3:54 mile PR and a qualification for the USA Championships. Unfortunately for Domanic, he has been unable to match that same excitement since. So far, in his two races this season, Domanic has run 1:50 for 800 and 4:06 for the mile...that 4:06 mile performance came at Millrose where he finished dead last. With the season winding down, it's hard to think that a 3:54 miler may not even be in the conversation of qualifying for Nationals. Will Domanic continue to race in hopes that he can qualify for NCAA's? Or will his season be effectively cut short in an attempt to prepare for the outdoor track season? Right now, there aren't a lot of positives to take away from his recent performances, but there is still time for Domanic to rebound and make some noise on the collegiate scene. BULLISH: Underclassmen Entering this season, we knew that there would be a lot of talented young guys crowding the fields and fighting for favorable spots in the NCAA rankings. What most of us didn't expect was seeing so many of them at the top of the NCAA leaderboards. Unsurprisingly, sophomore Michael Saruni is at the top of the NCAA in the 800. However, the 2nd spot is currently with a freshman from Mississippi State, Marco Arop. The mile is no different as Josh Kerr has maintained sophomore eligibility and leads the NCAA with a 3:54 personal best. Much like Saruni in the 800, Kerr is currently being flanked by redshirt freshman Jonathan Davis in the mile with an NCAA #2 ranking and 3:55 mile. Not too far behind at NCAA #4 is redshirt sophomore Kasey Knevelbaard. He also owns a time of 3:55 in the NCAA rankings (as mentioned above). How about Indiana's Ben Veatch in the 5k? We can almost guarantee to see 30+ guys under the 14 minute barrier after this weekend. Still, the Hoosier freshman has held the #2 spot in the NCAA (behind Emmanuel Rotich) since the beginning of December with a PR of 13:57. I would also be failing as a writer if I didn't mention that three of Oregon's four sub-4 milers are underclassmen. Sophomore Mick Stanovsek was able to lead the legendary freshman duo of Reed Brown and Cooper Teare to sub-4 milers at the Armory while veteram Sam Prakel was the only upperclassman Duck to break the barrier. Speaking of elite freshman milers, we can't ignore Texas frosh Sam Worley who just earned himself a 3:58 mile conversion this past weekend. He has suddenly entered the fray of potential NCAA qualifiers. There are plenty of other underclassmen, mainly sophomores, that have some had big impacts on the NCAA leaderboard so far this season. Guys like Andrew Jordan, Oliver Hoare, Cameron Griffith, Bryce Hoppell, Kyle Mau, and Carlos Villareal have all run under the crucial barrier of either 1:50, 4:00, or 8:00. When March rolls around, we could very easily see the freshmen and sophomores of 2018 control the All-American conversation at Nationals. The young guys, at all nearly every distance event, seem to be have the NCAA in their command.

BU Scarlet & White Invite 800 While other performances around the country captured headlines, we got to see a pair of strong results from the 800 at Boston U. Freshman Marco Arop (Mississippi State) is continuing to light it up in his debut season after securing a win this past weekend with a PR of 1:47.62 (NCAA #2). Myles Marshall (Harvard) was able to earn a PR for himself with a time of 1:47.74 (NCAA #4). Yet, what was even more exciting was seeing Mississippi State's other 800 stud place 6th overall with a time of 1:48.31. He was followed by Monmouth star Dylan Capwell who finished the day with a time of 1:48.76. Blaine Lacey of George Mason would be the final man under 1:49 with a time of 1:48.91. For Lacey, this is a huge breakout performance. He had never broken 1:51 in his career and during indoors, he had never broken 1:52! Talk about a jump... Georgetown freshman Rey Rivera and Mississippi State sophomore Daniel Nixon both recorded times of 1:49 to round out the overall top 10. Mile Paul Luevano (Boston U) put together another solid performance on his home track by securing the win in a time of 4:02. Albany freshman Victor Ortiz Rivera was the 2nd overall collegiate in a time of 4:04 while Georgetown's Jack Salisbury was a spot behind in 4:05. 5000 After winning the mile, Luevano doubled back and secured his 2nd gold medal of the weekend with a time of 14:27. Ryan Udvadia (Albany) was runner-up in 14:28. Rod McCravy Invite 800 Bryce Hoppell (Kansas) has been a consistent runner who is able to secure wins, run strong tactical races, and double up on events. Now, he can add a 1:48.36 PR to his resume. Hoppell was able to run that time and earn the win this past weekend. Kentucky's Ian Jones was runner-up in 1:50.19. Do not sleep on Hoppell this season. It looks like he'll have a strong chance of making it to NCAA's this year. If any of those races become tactical, he could become a very real threat. Mile Kentucky's Jacob Thomson and Ben Young took the top two spots in this race and both recorded personal best times of 4:01 and 4:02 respectively. New Mexico Classic 800 The entire top five of this event were taken by pro's and led by Brooks Beast Brannon Kidder. It wasn't until 6th place came around that we saw our first collegiate. New Mexico's Michael Wilson was 6th overall in a time of 1:49.69. Due to an altitude conversion, Wilson's time would become 1:49.09. Mile Admittedly, I was cautious as to how Worley would handle the challenge of racing at altitude against experienced guys who have been there before (Koech and Rogers). That, of course, was not an issue as Worley took the win with a time of 4:03.91. Jonah Koech (UTEP) was 2nd in 4:04.04 while Alex Rogers (Texas) rounded out the top three in 4:05.74. But what do these times look like with conversions? Worley gets a 3:58.60 (NCAA #14), Koech gets a 3:58.72 (NCAA #15), and Rogers gets a 4:00.39 (NCAA #23). It's tough to say whether or not those times will be fast enough to qualify for NCAA's. You typically want low 3:58's to secure your spot to NCAA's. If they leave it up to scratches, it will be very close... 3000 John Rice (Texas) blew away the field with a winning time of 8:16. With an altitude conversion, that time becomes an 8:03. Linton Taylor (New Mexico) was the next finisher to cross the line. His time of 8:30 earned a conversion of 8:18. Meyo Invite 800 Alex Lomong (Ohio State) tasted individual victory for the first time in his collegiate career with a time of 1:50.16. He was able to defeat Bradley's Alec Hartman who was runner-up in a time of 1:50.32. Mile It was a big day for the young guys at this meet as freshmen Yared Nuguse (Notre Dame) and Owen Day (Eastern Michigan) battled it out to finish 1-2. Nuguse recorded a time of 4:02.44 while Day ran a time of 4:02.77. 3000 Eastern Michigan's Hlynur Andresson earned himself a win after running a time of 8:02. Butler freshman Barry Keane had a very nice performance of his own with a time of 8:04 to finish the day as the 2nd overall collegiate. 5000 Michigan State's Jesse Hersha was the winner in this one with a time of 14:20. He was able to fend off Saint Louis junior Manuel de Backer who finished 2nd in a time of 14:23. In total, seven collegiates dipped under the 14:30 mark Millrose Games Mile (Regular) Sean Tobin was the only collegiate entered in this field, but he held up his end of the bargain with an excellent time of 3:58.28. The personal best has landed the Ole Miss senior at the 13th spot in the NCAA rankings. Mile (Invite) Robert Domanic (Ole Miss) and Josh Kerr (New Mexico) were the two collegiates who headlined the field. After running a huge 3:54 mile PR last summer, Domanic was one of the names that I was watching out for. Unfortunately, Domanic would struggle in his 2nd race of the season, finishing dead last with a time of 4:06. Although Domanic struggled, Josh Kerr stepped up in a way that was beyond comprehension. The defending national champion finished 2nd to Chris O'Hare with a MONSTER time of 3:54.72, making him the top ranked miler in the NCAA. It may be a new year, but the champ has certainly not lost his edge. 3000 Speaking of champs not losing their edge, how about Justyn Knight? For the 2nd straight week, he had to finish runner-up to Shadrack Kipchirchir, but he did secure yet another personal best. The Syracuse star threw down a time of 7:45 which, at this point, shouldn't really surprise anyone. This guy is super talented and will most likely be the favorite to win it all in the 3000 and the 5000 (assuming he pursues it). Mountain T's Invitational Mile My goodness Kasey Knevelbaard! The Southern Utah miler has had a strong rise of the very past few seasons of competition, but a performance like this is outstanding! Knevelbaard was the top finisher in this race with a time of 4:04.85 while Northern Arizona's Tyler Day (running unattached) was 2nd in 4:05.51. Obviously, those times don't seem to be anything crazy fast. However, when you factor in the 7000 ft of altitude, those conversions become very quick... Knevelbaard's time was eventually converted to 3:55.95 which is now an NCAA #4 time. Day's time of 4:05.51 gets converted to a 3:56.59. Yet, with that in mind, he will be redshirting this indoor track season. Colorado Invite 800 First it was David Ribich's 3:58, now it's Thomas Staines 1:47! Staines, a mid-distance runner out of CSU-Pueblo, threw down a monster time of 1:47.82 this past weekend AT ALTITUDE. With a conversion that time becomes 1:47.12. That time would be 2nd in Division One right now. Yet, as if Thomas Staines' time wasn't impressive enough, we also got to see Patrick Weaver of Colorado Mines finished 2nd with a time of 1:50.34. With a conversion, Weaver's time becomes 1:49.63. D2 is not playing around this year... Mile Despite the impressive performances from the 800 field, the mile had to be the event of the weekend. Colorado's Zach Perrin was the big winner in this one with a time of 4:03.21 while teammate Ben Saarel was a step behind in 4:03.40. 3rd place was Cole Rockhold of Colorado State with a time of 4:04.07. Colorado Christian's Evan Verbal and Adam's State Elijah Gedyon rounded out the top five with times of 4:05.18 and 4:06.80. Those times, when converted from altitude, become 3:57.28. 3:57.46, 3:58.12, 3:59.20, and 4:00.78. When you look at these performances, there’s a lot to talk about. First off, how about Ben Saarel? With no eligibility in cross country, it was easy to forget about how talented he is. Saarel and Perrin have run fast miles at altitude before, so this shouldn’t come as a surprise. Expect the next race to be 3000 meters. The same goes for Cole Rockhold who can run the mile or the 3000 meters. He’s talented enough to be an All-American in both, although with the way each field is playing out, the 3000 may be the least crowded option. As for Verbal and Gedyon, those two now have the 2nd and 3rd fastest miles in the NCAA D2. Verbal has been strong since day one of this season while Gedyon is looking to reignite the success he saw early on in his career. Those two could give David Ribich a run for his money at the Division 2 Championships this winter. 3000 Although there were plenty of strong results in the mile, the 3000 proved to be just as entertaining as we got to see a great battle between Colorado’s Ryan Forsyth and Colorado State’s Grant Fischer. Forsyth was the winner in this event with a time of 8:11 while Fischer settled for silver with a time of 8:13. Colorado’s Ethan Gonzales rounded out the top three with a time of 8:16. When converted from altitude, those times become 7:57 (Forsyth NCAA #13), 7:59 (Fischer NCAA #22), and 8:02 (Gonzales NCAA #32). Camel City Invite Mile All of the attention in this field was focused on Edward Cheserek and a slew of pro’s that accompanied him. Of course, we can’t just ignore the four Virginia Tech men entered in this field. After the four spots, we saw Virginia Tech begin to crowd the finish line. Vincent Ciattei dipped under 4 minutes with a time of 3:59.57 while teammate Patrick Joseph less than half a step behind in a time of 3:59.59. Neil Gourley was the next man in with a time of 4:00.21 while sophomore Diego Zarate would later finish in a time of 4:03.55. With a flat-track conversion, those times become some of the best in the NCAA. Ciattei and Joseph earn conversions of 3:56.56 and 3:56.58 (NCAA #5 and #6) while Gourley’s time gets bumped to 3:57.19 (NCAA #7). Unfortunately for Zarate, his conversion just missed the sub-4 minute conversion. His converted time of 4:00.49 is good enough for 25th in the NCAA rankings. 3000 Although the mile was the event that caught most of the attention, the 3000 still gave us some very strong collegiate performances. Campbell’s Lawrence Kipkoech was the top collegiate finisher in the field with a time of 7:57 while Kigen Chemadi (MTSU) was right behind him in a time of 7:58. Campbell’s Amon Kemboi was the third collegiate to cross the line in a time of 8:03. After factoring in flat-track conversions, Kipkoech’s time becomes 7:52.18 (NCAA #2) while Chemadi’s time becomes 7:52.92 (NCAA #3). Amon Kemboi’s conversion of 7:58 is the 15th fastest time in the NCAA. Kipkoech and Chemadi’s times will most likely be fast enough to qualify for NCAA’s. With that in mind, you can imagine their next move will be pursuing a qualifying time for the 5000 meters. Power 5 Invite 800 Daniel Kuhn (Indiana) secured the win in a time of 1:49.93 to defeat Minnesota freshman Dawson LaRance with a finish of 1:50.00. 5000 Indiana’s Bryce Millar was the winner in this one with a time of 14:08.03. However, he was nearly upset by Baylor’s Devin Meyrer who was less than a second behind in 14:08.73. For most of the race, Michigan’s Ben Flanagan was near the front. Yet, with just 800 to go, Flanagan pulled out and finished the day as a DNF. We are still unsure as to why, but it is certainly very odd. DMR It was one of the best matchups of the week as Indiana and Stanford clashed in a heavy-weight bout. We didn’t get to see Sean McGorty in the lineup, but we did get to see Grant Fisher match up with Kyle Mau on the anchor leg. When the dust cleared and leaderboard was refreshed, Indiana was the winner as Mau was able to match Fisher’s split of 3:58. The Hoosiers winning time of 9:31 was enough to take the top spot in the NCAA rankings while Stanford’s 9:32 was good enough for NCAA #3. Michigan rounded out the top three with a time of 9:36. They currently rank 6th in the NCAA.

Power Five Invite Mile In one of the more underrated fields of the weekend, the Power Five Invite could bring us some fast times. In the mile, we'll get to see recent sub-4 miler Kyle Mau (Indiana) toe the line along with teammate Ben Veatch, a guy who has been grabbing headlines in the longer distances this year. The Hoosier duo will also be joined by teammate Joseph Murphy. Luckily, Indiana won't be the only team crowding the field as Stanford has entered two athletes of their own (Thomas Coyle & Patrick Perrier). Perrier has been a great consistent miler for the Cardinal over the past few years, but he just can't seem to dip under that 4 minute barrier. Thomas Coyle is a sub-4 minute miler himself, but he hasn't accomplished that since his sophomore year. Is this the meet where he'll get back under that 4 minute mark? Other guys to keep an eye on are Michigan's Chase Barnett who just ran a 4:03 at Boston last week while Shane Streich of Minnesota could be a great sleeper pick when you consider his great tactical racing skills. FINAL PREDICTIONS 1. Kyle Mau (Indiana) 2. Chase Barnett (Michigan) 3. Ben Veatch (Indiana) 4. Patrick Perrier (Stanford) 5. Shane Streich (Minnesota) 6. Thomas Coyle (Stanford) 3000 The 3K will be a mix of some great distance-oriented programs such as Michigan, Virginia, NC State, and Minnesota. The Michigan men will be led by Aaron Baumgarten, the Wolverine senior who owns a personal best time of 7:57 in this event. He will be favored to take the win in this field. His teammate, Connor Mora, has a PR of 8:06 in this event, but his 3:59 mile speed could make him a threat in a tactical race. Others like Brent Demarest (Virginia), Obsa Ali (Minnesota), and Micah Beller (Michigan) all have PR's under 8:10, but they have yet to crack 8 minutes. With a guy like Aaron Baumgarten leading the race, you could definitely find one or two of those guys under the 8 minute barrier if everything goes perfectly. If you're looking for a breakout performer, keep your eyes on Evan Ferlic (Minnesota) and Ben Barrett (NC State). Both of these individuals are young talents that have slowly begun to put together some really solid results. In a field like this, they could definitely thrive and record a fast time. FINAL PREDICTIONS 1. Aaron Baumgarten (Michigan) 2. Brent Demarest (Virginia) 3. Evan Ferlic (Minnesota) 4. Connor Mora (Michigan) 5. Aubrey Myjer (NC State) 6. Micah Beller (Michigan) 7. Obsa Ali (Minnesota) 5000 At first, the entries may seem a little thin. Yet, upon a second look, you'll find that there is a lot of talent in this field. Michigan's Ben Flanagan will most likely be the favorite when you consider that he is on his home track and is arguably the most experienced out of anyone on the performance list. With a PR of 14:02, he'll certainly be fighting at the front. Yet, even with that personal best of 14:02, Flanagan still doesn't hold the fastest PR in this field. That accolade would belong to Indiana's Bryce Millar. The Hoosier sophomore owns a personal best time of 13:59 in this event which he ran in December of 2016. In a field that is not too strong, but not too weak, Millar could find himself back under that 14 minute mark if the pace is strong enough. If you're looking for other sleeper picks, you should look at the young guys from NC State. Elijah Moskowitz and Patrick Sheehan have put together some really solid times throughout their career, but they are still waiting for that big breakout performance. Much like Millar, this field may be the perfect amount of talent to stay competitive, but still be pushed. FINAL PREDICTIONS 1. Ben Flanagan (Michigan) 2. Bryce Millar (Indiana) 3. Elijah Moskowitz (NC State) 4. Alex Corbett (Virginia) 5. Patrick Sheehan (NC State) DMR This will most likely be the event of the meet as we get to see Stanford's fully loaded relay (McGorty & Fisher) match up with Indiana's talented group (Kuhn & Mau). The matchup between these two will be exciting, although it's fair to say that Stanford is the heavy favorite. With two of the best individuals to ever come through a historic Stanford program, it will be hard to take down this group. Still, if Indiana can keep it close up until the mile leg, then they are bound to run something incredibly fast. Of course, it would ignorant to forget about the home team, Michigan. They will be fielding a very solid relay of their own which includes sub-4 miler Connor Mora and 4:03 miler Chase Barnett (on the 1200). In theory, this group should stay close to Indiana throughout most of the race. However, the Wolverines will be without their 800 stud Brennan Munley which could give Indiana an advantage on the 800 leg when Daniel Kuhn gets the baton. Don't be surprised if you see Stanford dip under 9:30 while two others flirt with the 9:31 mark... FINAL PREDICTIONS 1. Stanford Cardinal 2. Indiana Hoosiers 3. Michigan Wolverines New Mexico Collegiate Classic 800 Admittedly, the field isn't all that stacked with college athletes. Most of the entries here are filled with professionals. That said, Sam Worley is entered to race, although he is also entered in the mile. If he doesn't run the mile, then this field, along with a nice altitude conversion, could put him somewhere along the lines of a 1:48 time. In addition to Worley, I will be interested to see how Texas' Jake McConnell performs in this event. A strong result from him could give the Longhorns enough confidence to pursue a DMR in the future. FINAL PREDICTIONS 1. Sam Worley (Texas) <--if he doesn't run the mile 2. Kristian Hansen (New Mexico) 3. Jake McConnell (Texas) Mile This field will hold some of the best names in the state of Texas which should make for a great race. The star of this race will be Sam Worley (Texas) and unlike the 800, I believe that Worley will actually toe the line for this event. Worley will get to face off with UTEP stud Jonah Koech who ran a 4 flat mile (converted) a few weeks ago. Having a pair of 800/mile stars like these two could make this either an exciting race from the gun or a huge sit-and-kick race near the end. However, we can't forget about Texas veteran Alex Rogers who owns personal bests of 1:48 and 3:40 (1500). This guy is a stud who has some great speed and even greater range. Rogers can do more than just compete with Worley and Koech. He can beat them. Yet, with that in mind, Koech seems to be having a bounce-back season. Plus, he has the experience of racing at altitude. Worley does not. It will be interesting to see how these mile stars clash. FINAL PREDICTIONS 1. Jonah Koech (UTEP) 2. Alex Rogers (Texas) 3. Sam Worley (Texas) 3000 The 3000 meters will essentially be a duel meet between Texas & UTEP with New Mexico sprinkled throughout the field. The Longhorns will be fielding key XC guys like John Rice and Connor Hendrickson while UTEP will have their long-distance guys, Cornelius Kapel and Antony Kosgei, toe the line as well. The finishing times for this race may not be incredibly fast, but it does present a great matchup. We also need to take some time to acknowledge that Jacob Pickle (Texas) is finally back and set to race this weekend! After dealing with a series of injuries throughout his career, it's an encouraging sign to see him back on the performance list. Pickle will be racing in the 2nd heat of this event alongside freshman standout and teammate Connor O'Neill. FINAL PREDICTIONS 1. John Rice (Texas) 2. Antony Kosgei (UTEP) 3. Connor Hendrickson (Texas) 4. Connor O'Neill (Texas) 5. Jacob Pickle (Texas) 6. Cornelius Kapel (UTEP)