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- BIG 12 Preview
MEN 800 Texas Tech has gone after the 800 this season with the addition of Jonah Koech to the squad. Their top three of Vincent Crisp, Jonah Koech, and Sven Cepus sit 1-2-4 in the conference standings with Crisp and Koech at #6 and #7 in the NCAA. Cepus sits right outside NCAA qualifying at #18. They’ve decided to leave Cepus as the only Texas Tech athlete in the field as Crisp moved down to 600 yards and Koech is going to contest the 1000 meters. Cepus' biggest competition comes from Bryce Hoppel of Kansas who sits #13 in the NCAA with a 1:48.10 from early February. Hoppel won this race in 2018 and will certainly want to repeat. Festus Lagat enters as the #3 highest ranked individual in the seven-person field with his 1:48.80, a time that is good for #20 in the nation. All three will want to improve their times to guarantee themselves a path to Birmingham in two weeks and should want a quick pace, especially since there will only be a final (not enough athletes for a prelim). 1000 Dan Curts of Iowa State enters with the best time of 2019 with his 2:25.03 clocking, but will face tough competition in his preliminary heat from Sam Worley of Texas who has run 3:57.98 for the mile. Cebastian Gentil will also be in the first prelim with a 2:27 result from earlier in the year, but comes with the benefit of not running the mile like Curts and Worley are. The second section includes Jonah Koech of Texas Tech who is a NCAA #7 at the 800, but has yet to tackle five laps in a race this season. He will be met by Alex Rogers of Texas who has run sub four twice this season, the first Longhorn to do that since Leo Manzano. Rogers will also be doubling in the mile, while Koech will not be. Ethan Donley of Kansas and Ackeen Colley of Oklahoma are both focusing on the 1000 and have PR's of sub-2:27 which should speed up the second section. Coming into the final, the Longhorn duo should be on their final bursts of energy which will benefit Koech of Texas Tech. Koech should try to head to the front and blast away from the gun and continue to show why he’s a great power at the middle distance events. Curts will join the Longhorn duo in a battle for the next spots, but it will be interesting to see which of the other athletes try to use their fresher legs to earn them a spot on the podium. Mile Sam Worley highlights the first section of the mile with an eight second lead over the next best time in the field. That would be Milo Greder of Iowa State with his 4:05. Both should feel very secure with their skill in being able to navigate well to the final. The Oklahoma State duo of Ryan Smeeton and Isaiah Priddey have both run 4:07/4:08 and will be fighting hard with Brendan Hebert of Texas who has also run 4:08. Hebert is also entered in the 1000. The heat should not aim to run so fast, but with the uncertainty of time qualifiers, one should expect those three to push the pace toward 4:07 with hopes of earning security into the final. Dan Curts of Iowa State and Alex Rogers headline the second section and have a huge gap over the rest of the field. Both should be able to sit and kick at whatever speed the heat decides to run. Charles Mills of Texas, Dylan Hodgson of Kansas, and Heath Warren of Oklahoma will be the next three across the line via PR with their 4:08, 4:08, and 4:09 seasons best. They will know exactly what time they need to beat to earn a slot in the final and should also be aiming at the 4:07 mark in order to earn some of the time qualifiers. Curts and Rogers will probably not play a factor until the final laps unless their teammates from the previous section might be affected by running a slower pace. In the final, one should expect Curts, Rogers, and Worley to be head and shoulders above the rest of the field. All three will have run the mile prelim and 1000 prelim from the day before and will be on tired legs. This opens the door for Milo Greder, but even that should not be enough for anyone other than the first three to challenge for the win. Worley probably has the most strength and speed, but Rogers has been the most consistent over the year. Regardless, expect this battle to happen again in the 1000 meters an hour or two after the mile final. 3000 The seeded section of the 3k is stacked with Alex Rogers and Dan Curts who will be on their third events of Saturday if they appear. It also features the Iowa State pack of Edwin Kurgat, Andrew Jordan, Thomas Pollard, David Too, John Nownes, and Chad Johnson. Kurgat and Jordan are two of the top 3k runners in the nation. Their greatest competition could also come from Isai Rodriguez who shocked the NCAA with his 4th place in at the cross country national meet this past fall. Rodriguez has not yet shown that form in track, but has posted an impressive 7:54 and is within a second of Edwin Kurgat. The intrigue in the seeded section will come from what happens in the unseeded section. Sam Worley of Texas and Milo Greder of Iowa State are both entered without a seed time and could play spoiler if they can push they pace here and the seeded section gets tactical. Sukhi Khosla of Oklahoma State is also entered without a seed time and could spoil the spoilers. The seeded section should be able to gauge their effort and even with a level of tactical racing, overtake the times of the first heat. Regardless, it will be on the shoulders of the Iowa State group to take the legs out of Alex Rogers and Isai Rodriguez. Depending on who shows the best finishing speed in the 5k the night before, it will be interesting in who tries to push the pace the next day. Kurgat should be the favorite. 5000 Edwin Kurgat leads the field as only five athletes come in with a seed time. Kurgat has cemented his spot in the NCAA Championships with his 13:34 for NCAA #4 and is the clear favorite. His biggest challenge will be from Rodriguez of Oklahoma State as will be true in the 3k. Rodriguez has yet to run the event and will be looking to qualify for nationals, so look for him to push the pace, especially since there’s a large group of OK State Cowboys in the field. Thomas Pollard of Iowa State has the best 3k time and is also yet to complete a 5k, so he may be looking for a 5k qualifier of his own for NCAAs, unless Iowa State envisions him anchoring the DMR at NCAAs. Pollard should be confident in his kick as should Kurgat. Both should wait for Rodriguez to take the pace and make the biggest moves of the event. Expect a close finish, but Iowa State to stay in control, even as Rodriguez and Oklahoma State dictate pace. DMR Who will end up in the DMR is a huge question as the top legs for Texas and Iowa State are all doubling and tripling in the individual events. Both teams have run 9:27 already. Iowa State has the most replacement legs with Festus Lagat and Roshon Roomes being able to take control of the mile and 800 legs while Texas does not nearly have the strength without both Worley and Rogers. Texas Tech has only run 10:15 so far in 2019, but the trio of Vincent Crisp, Sven Cepus and Jonah Koech is very dangerous if they decide to line up together. That group could certainly contend for an NCAA qualifying spot, especially with the altitude conversion they receive in Lubbock. Oklahoma State has also run 9:33 and while their team does not look ready to aim for an NCAA qualifying time, they should still contend if the race becomes tactical. The meet record of 9:37 should be rewritten without a doubt. WOMEN 800 Gabby Crank of the Texas leads all entrants in the 800 with her early season time of 2:04.50. She leads the first heat by over two seconds over Kaylee Dodd of Oklahoma State. Aaliyah Miller of Baylor is the clear 3rd place choice in the heat with her 2:07.85. The second heat is lead by Marleena Eubanks of Kansas and Erinn Stenman-Fahey of Iowa State both have 2:06 clockings on the year. Leticia De Souza of Baylor and Rilee Rigdon of Oklahoma State also have 2:06 results in 2019 and all four should advance based on the relative weak field. Eubanks, Stenman-Fahey, Dodd, and Miller all have the potential to enter the NCAA qualifying picture as the current cutoff is 2:05.90 should no one scratch or improve. They will all want to push the pace in order to utilize the Lubbock altitude conversion to push their times into the top 16. Eubanks will probably be the first person to make a move to overthrow Crank for the title, with Dodd and Stenman-Fahey challenging later in the race. As long as the first lap does not dawdle, someone should be able to impact the NCAA top 16. 1000 Sinclaire Johnson is opting to skip the mile to take on the 1000 in which she ran 2:43.37 in January. That time was a world top five when it was completed. Johnson is a key piece on the NCAA #1 DMR for Oklahoma State and is a contender for the NCAA mile title in two weeks and should be the clear favorite in this event. Alex Cruz of Texas comes in without a seed time, but should also be a factor. Kassidy Johnson of Kansas State will lead the second prelim and should compete for 2nd behind Sinclaire Johnson in the final. Mile Haley Jackson of West Virginia enters at the fastest seed since Sinclaire Johnson has opted for the shorter event. Jackson has run 4:40 already this season and enters the weekend with a four second lead over Alex Cruz (section two) and a seven second lead over those in her prelim. Molly Sughroue of Oklahoma State is the 2nd fastest in that first prelim and has had good results at 3k, but not as much in the mile in 2019. The second section also has Ariane Ballner of Oklahoma State who has run 4:45. Those four athletes are by far the class of the field and should compete for the top spots without much difficulty. 3000 The BIG 12 might set a record for largest heat as the unseeded section has 38 entrants. While a number of these are 800 runners (Kaylee Dodd and Gabby Crank for example) who might drop out later in the race, trying to put this many athletes on the track will be an absolute nightmare. Luckily, the women do not have any major contenders in this section unlike the men. The seeded section is led by Sharon Lokedi of Kansas who has a 9:06.65 from the Iowa State Classic. This time is a borderline NCAA qualifier, but should be secure since all conferences run the 3k as one of the final events and most athletes are doubling or tripling. Lokedi is known more for her strength than her speed and will be challenged by Callie Logue of Iowa State and Sinclaire Johnson of Oklahoma State. Johnson has the most sprint speed of anyone in the race and should certainly be the favorite if the three are together with a lap to go. Molly Sughroue of Oklahoma State and Destiny Collins of Texas will be the duo looking to pick up the pieces if the top three falter. 5000 Sharon Lokedi will take a bigger favorite’s lead into the longest event of the indoor season after her spectacular result at the BU meet in early December. While she has only continued to impress, one should not expect anything close to the 15:15 finish from that race. Callie Logue and Amanda Vestri of Iowa State will be some of the toughest competition as they can work together and set the right tempo. They also have a number of other teammates in the race including Anne Frisbie who can control the action early on. Haley Herberg of Oklahoma could also be a factor with her sub 16 result from 2019 as will Destiny Collins who will be trying to earn points for the Texas Longhorns. The race should be Lokedi’s to lose and Iowa State’s to control for the rest of the placings. It will be interesting to see if anyone else tries to make a big move to shake up that status quo. DMR Oklahoma State should be considered the favorite with their firepower behind Kaylee Dodd, Molly Sughroue, Abbie Hetherington and most importantly, Sinclaire Johnson. Not all of them will end up running the relay here, but they should have enough strength to hold onto the win regardless. Iowa State could challenge of course with Callie Logue and company, but they are better suited for the longer distance events and would have to come back immediately from the 5k to make that attempt. Sharon Lokedi and the Kansas squad would face the same challenge since Lokedi will have run the 5k right before. Lokedi should have enough energy since she will not be majorly challenged, but it may not be worth it to run the extra event before NCAA's since the Jayhawks have already qualified for the NCAA meet in the DMR. Texas is maybe the most interesting squad since their 11:03.45 is one of the fastest times to not make the NCAA meet at this moment. They might want to give the event one more try to qualify their squad to Birmingham. Definitely don’t overlook that factor as they should be a better contender than Kansas, even though the Jayhawks have a five second lead over them by season best.
- BIG 10 Preview
Entries have just been released for the BIG 10 Conference Championships and it looks to be setup for an exciting weekend. This conference championship features some of the top individual performers from the NCAA including the Wisconsin male duo of Oliver Hoare and Morgan McDonald, as well as 3k star Alicia Monson of Wisconsin and middle-distance phenom Danae Rivers of Penn State. With plenty of depth in each event, expect the BIG 10 to produce some exciting action on the track this weekend. MEN 800 The BIG 10 has three men currently qualified for NCAA's in the 800 and two of them will face-off over the distance this weekend. Cooper Williams of Indiana comes in as the top-ranked individual with a mark of 1:47.24, closely followed by Domenic Perretta of Penn State with a 1:48.09. The third qualifier, Frank Hayes of Ohio State, has opted to run the 600 this weekend. The field features five men who have all run under the 1:50 barrier which should provide great depth across the four preliminary heats. With how unpredictable the middle-distance events can be, any of these athletes could come away with the title, although we tend to favor the likes of Williams and Perretta. Perretta’s current mark is over a second faster than anyone except Williams, and WIlliams has almost a full second on Perretta. Assuming the two make it through prelims okay, they should be set for a showdown in the finals. Right now, they rank #8 and #12, respectively in the country which all but guarantees them a trip to Nationals next weekend. This weekend will be a great chance to tune-up their racing skills before they face stronger competition next weekend. Mile This race looks to be the most exciting based on the athletes entered. The heats feature four sub four milers, including NCAA leader Oliver Hoare of Wisconsin who has posted a mark of 3:54.83 at the Millrose Games. Behind Hoare is Kyle Mau of Indiana who ran 3:57.61 two weeks ago at Iowa State to claim the #4 ranking in the NCAA. Jonathan Davis of Illinois sits at #10 with a mark of 3:58.06, and George Kusche became the first ever athlete from Nebraska to break the barrier when he ran 3:59.61 earlier this season. Hoare will come in as the heavy favorite given he has the fastest time in the country and almost three seconds on Mau. Since winning the outdoor 1500 meter title last spring, Hoare has been consistently putting up big performances both on the cross country course and the track. He has shown great range this indoor season, posting the #5 time over 3000 meters of 7:48.81 when he edged out Mau (who ran 7:50.17) at the Indiana University Relays. While indoor miles can be tactile, Hoare’s substantial gap on the field should provide him some extra wiggle room up front and it would be surprising to see anyone beat him this weekend. Of course things rarely go as planned on the indoor track and one slip-up by Hoare could open the door for either Mau or Davis. Both men have been very consistent this season and have tested their legs over the 800 distance, running marks in the 1:51-52 range. Mau is the defending champion in this event and Davis finished runner-up in the 3K in 2018. While Hoare should be the favorite, keep your eyes on these two as they will surely be ready come Friday. 3000 If the mile does not turn out as planned, Kyle Mau always has the 3K to lean back on. He enters this weekend as the top seed in the event and has a personal best this season that is six seconds faster than anyone else in the field. Assuming he is not burnt out from the mile, he should have a great opportunity to win his first BIG 10 title in the 3K on Saturday. That title will not come easy, however. Behind him, Indiana teammate Ben Veatch and fellow mile competitor George Kusche will be looking to win their first indoor titles as well. Veatch comes in with a personal best of 7:56.01 and Kusche has run 7:57.16 this season. While both Mau and Kusche will likely have at least one race in their legs, Veatch will have the benefit of fresh legs. Another man who comes in fresh is John Aho of Michigan. The sophomore has run 7:57.54 this season and is the only other runner to have broken the 8:00 barrier this season. The pace will likely be determined by either Aho or Veatch as both Mau and Kusche have great speed and would likely be content to let the race come down to a fast finish. If either Aho or Veatch want the title, their best bet is to make it an honest pace from the gun and hope the mile prelims take something out of their competitors legs. 5000 The reigning NCAA XC champion will be making his season debut over 5000 meters this winter and is favorite to win the BIG 10 title while doing it. Morgan McDonald of Wisconsin has been having a great 2018-19 campaign and is currently #2 in the NCAA for 3000 meters with a mark of 7:42.76. He has only ever raced the 5000 meter distance indoors twice - both at BIG 10 Championships. At those meets he finished runner-up to Mason Ferlic in 2016 and followed up with a win in 2017. This year, he is poised for back-to-back titles, but will face strong competition in the process. Obsa Ali of Minnesota burst onto the scene in 2018 when he won the NCAA steeplechase title. Ali had a solid career at Minnesota leading up to that race, but had not produced any huge results until then. After redshirting cross country this past fall, he has been posting indoor personal bests of 7:54.92 for 3000m and 13:38.41 (NCAA #7) for 5000 meters. Ali finished runner-up to McDonald at this meet last year and will be looking to turn the tables this weekend. The field for this race is incredibly deep, with two other athletes having run sub-13:50 this season. Jaret Carpenter of Purdue (13:43) and Timothy McGowan of Penn State (13:46) could find themselves in contention for the win. Both have had strong showings this season and they are currently ranked #19 and #20 in the NCAA for this distance. It would be surprising to see the field chase a qualifying mark (sub-13:42) unless McDonald is looking to race the distance at NCAA's. He has yet to run the event this season making this is only chance to qualify. WOMEN 800 Headlining the marquee middle-distance event will be Danae Rivers of Penn State. Currently ranked #3 in the NCAA, Rivers has been on a tear this year with dominant showings over the 800 and mile distances. She also broke the collegiate indoor record in the 1000 meters earlier this season when she ran 2:38. Right now, Rivers has a mark of 2:02.95 for this event, almost three seconds faster than any other woman in the field. While Rivers will certainly be running multiple events, there is no reason she cannot or rather should not win. While Rivers is far-and-away the best runner in the field, Kelsey Harris of Indiana has been making a name for herself this season as well. Harris is the only other BIG 10 woman currently in a spot to qualify for NCAA's in this event with a time of 2:05.46. It is unlikely Harris can beat Rivers even on her best day, but stranger things have happened. Harris comes into this race as a solid runner-up choice and will almost certainly be racing again at NCAA's in the near future. Mile With Danae Rivers opting out of the mile, the favorite of the field becomes Hannah Meier of Michigan. Meier is the only woman in the BIG 10 besides Rivers who is currently qualifying for NCAA's in this event. She comes in ranked #11 which all but guarantees her a trip to Nationals next weekend. This race will be Meier’s to lose. She comes in with a personal best more than five seconds faster than the next woman and no one else has even broken the 4:40 barrier. As long as she can make it through prelims with no mishaps, Meier has a great chance to win her first individual BIG 10 title. If Meier does falter, keep an eye on Michigan State’s Annie Fuller. The sophomore is the only other woman to have broken 4:40 this season despite only racing the distance twice. She also owns an 800m best of 2:09 which provides excellent finishing speed if the race turns tactile. 3000 As previously mentioned, Alicia Monson is the current NCAA leader for this distance after one of the biggest upsets we have seen all season. In a Millrose field full of experienced professional women, Monson made a late move to take the win in the #3 fastest time in NCAA history, running 8:45.97 for the distance. An interesting note from that performance is it bested her previous fastest mark of 9:14 by nearly 30 seconds - a mark she posted at the BIG 10 meet last year. This weekend’s race provides a great chance for Monson to earn her first BIG 10 title on the track. No other women is within 20 seconds of her time and she has the fastest mile time of any women in the field which gives her the advantage in a more tactile race. The race for 2nd should be tight with a number of women having run between 9:10 and 9:20 this season. Bethany Hasz of Minnesota has the #2 fastest mark in the field having run a school record of 9:11 earlier this season at Iowa State. Behind her, both Katherine Receveur of Indiana and Erin McDonald of Michigan State have run 9:19 this winter. Any of those three could come away with 2nd place on the right day and while Hasz comes in with the best mark, Receveur has the best closing speed if this turns tactile. Hasz will benefit if Monson chooses to string things out early and make it a fast race, but there is no clear-cut runner-up in this field. 5000 This race presents a unique scenario for the Wisconsin women. As of today, the only runner in the BIG 10 qualified for NCAA's is Alicia Monson who sits at #11, but her teammate Amy Davis is ranked #21 and only five seconds out of a qualifying mark. It is unlikely that any of the women ahead of her will scratch the race which means Davis’s only option would be to throw down a fast time this weekend. As it stands today, Davis would need to run under 15:42 to move into a qualifying position - assuming no one else runs anything faster this weekend. Monson has run 15:34 this season which opens up the possibility of pacing Davis to an NCAA qualifier. Will it happen? Probably not - it would take a big solo effort by Monson to run that fast with no competition and BIG 10s is not necessarily the place to try this given NCAA's are only a week away. On the off chance they make the attempt, this race instantly becomes one to watch. If the Wisconsin duo get after it, there are a couple other women who may also try and jump on the pace. Katherine Receveur has not had her best season this winter but she owns an indoor personal best of 15:28 from 2017. Her teammate Margaret Allen has also run quite fast this year, posting a mark of 15:49, only two seconds back of Davis. Regardless of if they choose to chase a qualifier or not, this group of women should be leading the charge behind Monson this weekend.
- ACC Preview
MEN 800 Robert Heppenstall of Wake Forest comes into the ACC Championship as the de-facto favorite to win the 800. He holds an indoor personal best of 1:46.88 and has collected six All-America honors, one for each indoor and outdoor season of his collegiate career. This season, Heppenstall has the fastest outright performance over 800 meters in the ACC at 1:48.33, but factoring in conversions he sits at #3 behind Duke junior Matt Wisner and Virginia Tech freshman Bashir Mosavel-Lo who ran converted times of 1:47.68 and 1:47.92, respectively at the Camel City Invitational. Georgia Tech’s Avery Bartlett is another competitor to watch with a season-best of 1:48.68. He has run 1:47.32 indoors in the past, however, so if Bartlett is primed to run a PR he could be in the title picture. Clemson comes in with the powerful duo of Malik Epps and John Lewis who have run 1:49.75 and 1:49.87, respectively. Lewis holds a PR of 1:47.14, which could prove to be dangerous in the final. Virginia Tech will look to continue the 800 prowess that they have shown in recent years with Matthew Harding (1:47), Owen Buck (1:50), and Thierry Siewe Yanga (1:51). Buck and Siewe Yanga may not have the credentials of former Hokies like Patrick Joseph and Drew Piazza, but they are still young and have thrown down some pretty quick times. Harding is a big name to watch as he could throw down a strong time. Keep him on your radar. Dante Watson and Drew Glick of Pittsburgh both have PR's of 1:50 and could be in the scoring picture as well. Mile The men’s mile at this year’s ACC Championship could be interesting. Many of this season’s top performers are entered in other events, opening up the picture a bit more. It is possible that we could see some dark horses emerge, along with some freshman stars. Aidan Tooker of Syracuse comes into this race as the conference leader at 3:59.39, the only ACC athlete under 4:00. With that being said, it is not safe to call Tooker the favorite. Notre Dame’s Yared Nuguse has a season best/personal best of 4:01.10, but has run significantly faster on relay legs, including his anchor leg of Notre Dame’s DMR that broke the NCAA record last weekend at the Alex Wilson Invitational. Nuguse gained some fame after out-kicking Grant Fisher on the anchor leg of Notre Dame’s 2nd place DMR at NCAA's last year. Nuguse and Tooker are two of the top entries in this race, but Nuguse seems to be more of a true miler. Tooker specializes in the steeplechase outdoors, so we’ll see what he can do in what will likely be a tactical mile. The rest of the field is pretty strong, with Virginia Tech’s Diego Zarate coming in at #2 on the performance list with a time of 4:00. Virginia Tech also has Antonio Lopez-Segura entered, a freshman who has run 4:07 this year. 4:07 is not remarkably fast in a Power 5 conference, but with a somewhat watered down field due to many athletes opting for the 800m of 3k, it could be a factor. Florida State senior Michael Hall holds a personal best of 3:59 and has run 4:01 this season. The next fastest entry is Michael Phillips of Syracuse, a freshman who has run 4:02 this season. If Phillips can get himself in good position in what will be his first collegiate championship race, he and Tooker could form a solid 1-2 punch for the Orange. Notre Dame freshman Dylan Jacobs made some noise last year as a senior in high school when he won the Foot Locker Cross Country Championship. This year, he has run 2:24 in the 1000 meters and 8:11 in the 3k, but has yet to race a mile. He also led off Notre Dame’s NCAA record-setting DMR last weekend. Notre Dame has a recent history of putting out strong freshmen as seen with Nuguse last year along with Danny Kilrea’s exciting performances in cross country this past fall, so we’ll see if Jacobs can follow up those performances with an impressive one of his own. Ian Ritchie of Boston College has run 4:06 this season, making him one of this year’s fastest ACC performers entered in the mile. Going farther down the list, Virginia’s Matthew Novak has a season best of 4:07, but a lifetime PR of 4:03. Sebastian Fischbach has a lifetime PR of 4:05, but has only run 4:17 this season so whether or not he has the ability to be a factor is unclear. 3000 The 3k is absolutely loaded with ACC talent. Unlike the mile, many of the top performers of this season are entered in what should be quite the showdown. A lot of these athletes are also entered in the 5k which is the day before, so that will likely make for two very tactical races. Peter Seufer of Virginia Tech comes in as this season’s leader with a flat-track converted 7:54. Georgia Tech’s Nahom Solomon follows close behind with a personal best 7:57 from this season. Syracuse has loaded up this race with some of their top talent. Noah Affolder and Iliass Aouani come in with season bests of 8:01 (although Aouani has previously run 7:57). Joe Dragon is not far off either, with a time of 8:07. Aidan Tooker is also entered in the 3k, but is in the unseeded section as he has not raced a 3k this year. Tooker’s lifetime PR of 7:56 certainly makes him a factor and he may try to push the pace in the slow heat to put himself in a position to score. This may be exceedingly difficult, as 37 athletes are entered in the unseeded section. We’ll see how many end up scratching, but 37 guys is a lot on a 200 meter indoor track. Notre Dame also has a strong pair of Andrew Alexander, who has run 8:06 this year, and Danny Kilrea who has yet to debut in the 3k, but earned an All-American finish in cross country this past fall. He had a gutsy race at the ACC Cross Country Championship where he finished 10th after leading much of the first half of the race. Alexander will not be running the 5k and may be feeling much fresher than many of his competitors in the last couple laps. Boston College’s Sean Burke has run 8:10 this year, which may be enough for this experienced veteran to score some points. On the other hand, Wake Forest freshman Zach Facioni comes in with a time of 8:08. Facioni also ran an impressive race at the ACC cross Country Championship this past fall as he battled eventual champion Peter Seufer to the line, finishing 2nd overall. The men of Virginia enter this race with one of the deepest squads in any event. AJ Ernst (8:05), Alex Corbett (8:07), and Ari Klau (8:08) make up three of the top 11 spots in the ACC this season. They all have scoring potential, and Ernst, the fastest of the trio, will not be coming off a 5k double so he may be better equipped to kick hard at the end of this race. 5000 The top of the 5k is pretty stacked with incredibly talented athletes who will also be competing in the 3k. This double is not impossible as the races are over 24 hours apart, but it will likely result in the 5k going out pretty slow as a lot of guys will want to save as much as they can for the 3k the next day. Georgia Tech’s Nahom Solomon is the ACC leader by a huge margin going into the championship. His time of 13:41.48 is a full 10 seconds ahead than #2 Iliass Aouani of Syracuse who comes in with a 13:51.87. After that, the times get a lot closer. Virginia Tech’s Peter Seufer comes in next at 13:52, and is followed by Alex Corbett and Ari Klau of Virginia at 14:00 and 14:03, respectively. Along with their teammate Aouani, the Syracuse men will be looking to do some damage with Joe Dragon (14:05), Kevin James (14:14), and Noah Affolder (no indoor PR, 14:07 outdoors). This group may try to control the race early so that it plays into their favor later on, as they could score some major points here. Notre Dame freshman Danny Kilrea comes in with a time of 14:11, and Wake Forest Freshman Zach Facioni comes in without a 5k PR, but his 8:08 3k and fast cross country times may be the perfect combination for him to be a factor in this race. Sean Burke of Boston College hasn’t run a 5k this season, but holds a PR of 14:12. Just like in the 3k, his experience may come in handy here. North Carolina State’s Patrick Sheehan has run 14:08 this year, but has a lifetime PR of 13:57 which could be a major factor in this race. DMR I messed up and overlooked the fact that the DMR ran on Thursday...here are the results Notre Dame, 9:38.85 Virginia Tech, 9:45.03 Duke, 9:47.29 Georgia Tech, 9:47.34 Virginia, 9:49.17 Pittsburgh, 9:52.18 North Carolina State, 9:53.59 Wake Forest, 10:01.22 Florida State, 10:04.78 Clemson, DQ Boston College, DQ Predictions 800 Robert Heppenstall, Wake Forest Avery Bartlett, Georgia Tech John Lewis, Clemson Bashir Mosavel-Lo, Virginia Tech Matt Wisner, Duke Malik Epps, Clemson Dante Watson, Pittsburgh Owen Buck, Virginia Tech Mile Yared Nuguse, Notre Dame Aidan Tooker, Syracuse Michael Hall, Florida State Dylan Jacobs, Notre Dame Michael Phillips, Syracuse Alex Milligan, North Carolina Ian Ritchie, Boston College Matthew Novak, Virginia 3000 Nahom Solomon, Georgia Tech Peter Seufer, Virginia Tech Andrew Alexander, Notre Dame AJ Ernst, Virginia Danny Kilrea, Notre Dame Iliass Aouani, Syracuse Joe Dragon, Syracuse Zach Facioni, Wake Forest 5000 Peter Seufer, Virginia Tech Nahom Solomon, Georgia Tech Iliass Aouani, Syracuse Ari Klau, Virginia Patrick Sheehan, North Carolina State Noah Affolder, Syracuse Alex Corbett, Virginia Sean Burke, Boston College WOMEN 800 The women’s 800m at this year’s ACC championship is incredibly deep and relatively wide open. Rachel Pocratsky of Virginia Tech has the conference-leading time of 2:05.20. Pocratcky’s lifetime PR of 2:02.67 makes her a strong bet to win. She will be followed by Mikayla Schneider and Kelly Hart of Notre Dame who have run 2:06.56 and 2:07.00, respectively this season. After those three, the rest of the field is pretty densely packed with 12 women who have run 2:08 to 2:10 this season. Clemson’s Kamryn McIntosh has run 2:08.07 this year and holds a lifetime PR of 2:03.59 which will make her a strong contender for the title. Miami’s Kayla Johnson has run 2:03.04 in the past, and has a season best of 2:08.40. Duke’s Brittany Aveni has run 2:08.58 this season, but ran 2:06.61 previously which could put her in the picture. Madison Harris of Florida State has run 2:10.21 this season, but has a PR of 2:07.57. Shannon Quinn of Virginia Tech comes in with a strong time of 2:08.07. Mile Sarah Edwards of Virginia Tech enters the meet with the top seed at a converted 4:33.78. She and her teammate Rachel Pocratsky ran the exact same time at the Camel City Invitational, but Pocratsky has opted to focus on the 800 instead. Clemson’s Logan Morris comes in with a converted time of 4:38.51 which puts her solidly in the conversation as well. Dominique Clairmonte of North Carolina State has run 4:38.55 (which was run at Virginia Tech, where ACC's are being held) to put herself in the running for a podium spot. Morgan Ilse of North Carolina’s converted time of 4:39.76 and Maudie Skyring of Florida State’s 4:40.17 aren’t too far off the leaders either. Florida State follows up Skyring’s performance with Jodie Judd who has run 4:42. Like in the 800, the mile is packed with talent and the performance list is full of individuals with times in the mid-4:40s. It’s safe to say it’s anyone’s race as we move back beyond the podium spots. 3000 Elly Henes comes into the meet with the top performance this season; a flat-track converted time of 9:01. This time puts her a good bit ahead of the #2 seed, Militsa Mircheva of Florida State, who has run 9:07 this year. After Mircheva, Morgan Ilse of North Carolina comes in with a converted 9:08. North Carolina State’s Dominique Clairmonte will be doubling back from the mile to run the 3k as well. Will her converted 9:14 be enough to get her into a scoring spot after potentially two mile races (prelim and final)? Both Ilse and Clairmonte are two names you'll want to keep an eye on this weekend. Sara Friex of Virginia Tech has run a converted 9:16 this year, good for #5 on the performance list. Reigning ACC cross country champion Dorcas Wasike is entered, and although she has not run a 3k this season, she has run 15:25 in the 5k and had a stellar cross country season, finishing 14th at NCAA's. She certainly has the ability to contend for a title or two this weekend. Rachel Bonner of Syracuse has run 9:22 this year as well as 4:46 in the mile, so she has the credentials of a potential scorer in this field. Notre Dame freshman Jacqueline Gaughan comes in with a PR of 9:22 and has been having a great year so far with some impressive cross country finishes as well. Syracuse’s Paige Stoner is entered, but has yet to race a 3k this season. Her 9:12 PR should sit quite well in this field. 5000 The women’s 5k is pretty top-heavy with Dorcas Wasike leading the way with a time of 15:25. After a very impressive cross country campaign and the absence of Notre Dame’s Anna Rohrer, Wasike seems like a rather safe pick as the favorite in this race. North Carolina State’s Elly Henes has the second fastest 5k in the conference this season, but she is only entered in the 3k. These two times hold up not only in the ACC, but put these two women in the national qualifying picture as well. Militsa Mircheva of Florida State has run 15:43, putting her comfortably in the #3 spot. Syracuse senior Paige Stoner has an incredible amount of championship experience, and her 15:41 PR (15:55 this season) should put her in a great position to score big points. Notre Dame’s Jacqueline Gaughan has run 15:52, putting her high in this field. Sara Friex of Virginia Tech will be doubling in the 3k and 5k like many of these women, and her 16:07 could put her in scoring position. Wake Forest’s Samantha Halvorsen has also run 16:07 this season and has a second-team All-American finish in the 10k from last spring, adding her to this conversation as well. Laura Dickinson of Syracuse has run 16:10 and Kelly Hayes of Pittsburgh has run 16:11 this season, rounding out the top seeds. DMR I messed up and overlooked the fact that the DMR ran on Thursday...here are the results Virginia Tech, 11:08.02 Florida State, 11:13.05 Notre Dame, 11:13.73 North Carolina State, 11:15.78 Duke, 11:15.82 Wake Forest, 11:19.01 Clemson, 11:28.70 Georgia Tech, 11:29.62 Pittsburgh, 11:31.18 Boston College, 11:35.36 North Carolina, 11:38.36 Virginia, 11:55.53 Predictions 800 Rachel Pocratsky, Virginia Tech Kamryn McIntosh, Clemson Brittany Aveni, Duke Kelly Hart, Notre Dame Kayla Johnson, Miami Madison Harris, Florida State Shannon Quinn, Virginia Tech Erin Sullivan, Notre Dame Mile Sarah Edwards, Virginia Tech Dominique Clairmonte, North Carolina State Logan Morris, Clemson Maudie Skyring, Florida State Morgan Ilse, North Carolina Jodie Judd, Florida State Rachel DaDamiano, Notre Dame Nevada Mareno, North Carolina State 3000 Elly Henes, North Carolina State Dorcas Wasike, Louisville Militsa Mircheva, Florida State Morgan Ilse, North Carolina Paige Stoner, Syracuse Sara Friex, Virginia Tech Dominique Clairmonte, North Carolina State Jacqueline Gaughan, Notre Dame 5000 Dorcas Wasike, Louisville Paige Stoner, Syracuse Jacqueline Gaughan, Notre Dame Militsa Mircheva, Florida State Jacqueline Gaughan, Notre Dame Samantha Halvorsen, Wake Forest Sara Friex, Virginia Tech Kelly Hayes, Pittsburgh Note: I am new to covering the women’s side of the sport and am admittedly not as knowledgeable as I would like to be. If you notice I missed somebody important, let me know!
- SEC Preview (Men)
One of the more underrated conferences in the country when it comes to distance running, the SEC combines both top end talent and depth. Not only do we have guys fighting for national qualifying spots, but we also have a national preview between two of the favorites in the 800. While most people might be watching the sprinters at SEC's, don’t forget to tune in to watch some of the best distance runners in the country compete in the first round of the indoor postseason. 800 If I forced you to only watch one race all weekend (I know that is so mean, I’m so sorry) you would have a lot of options. Maybe you go with the bloodbath that is MPSF 3k which our own Sam Ivanecky wrote about or maybe the BIG 10 mile or 3k so you could see Johnathan Davis compete with Morgan McDonald and Oliver Hoare. Those would be good choices, but I would go in another direction. If I could only watch one race, then I’m picking the showdown between Marco Arop and Devin Dixon. These two have run the fastest 800 times of the year with Devin Dixon setting a U.S. collegiate indoor record by breaking 1:45. Arop, one of the preseason favorites after his runner-up performance last spring during outdoors, has also run well this season running 1:45.9. In a loaded 800 field that includes Joe White, I still think that Dixon and Arop are the favorites going into Nationals which is why this race is so exciting. We don’t usually get to see the top two runners in an event face off on conference weekend. Not only is it cool that we get to see Arop and Dixon face at SEC's, but we also get to see how they react to running prelims the day before. They obviously won’t have to run as fast at SEC's to qualify for finals as they will at Nationals, but it is still another factor that will help us predict the 800 champ. Whoever wins this race will certainly be the favorite going into Nationals and will have a ton of confidence going into Nationals. I’ve been a believer in Arop all season long, and I’m not going to stray from that in my prediction. I think Dixon will lead the race from the gun while Arop sits right behind him and inches Dixon out at the line. Don’t think I forgot about the rest of the field! Carlton Orange, Dixon’s teammate at Texas A&M, has run well this year and has secured his place at Nationals. If either Dixon or Arop blows up a bit, Orange will be there to capitalize. Filling out the rest of the projected final is John Rivera from Ole Miss, Mississippi State’s Dejon Devroe, and Kieran Taylor of Arkansas. All three have run 1:49 and will be looking to be pulled around by Dixon and Arop to a 1:48 which could earn them a spot at Nationals. Mile The clear favorite in the mile is Waleed Suliman who has run 3:56 and owns the #2 fastest time in the country. Whether the final is a sit-and-kick or all out from the gun, Suliman should be able to beat anyone. That said, Suliman will have plenty of competition. Cameron Griffith from Arkansas has run 3:59 in the mile as 7:52 in the 3k. Unfortunately for Griffith, both times put him just outside national qualification, so he will be looking to earn his spot to Nationals in either the mile or 3k this weekend. Behind Griffith is Missouri’s Kieran Wood who ran an exciting mile against Nebraska’s George Kusche which saw them both run 3:59. Like Griffith, Wood certainly wouldn’t mind if the final was fast, so he has a better shot at Nationals. An underdog to keep an eye on is Ben Young from Kentucky. While he has yet to break four minutes this year, he has previously and came in 4th place in the mile last indoor season. Don’t be surprised to see the Wildcat in the lead group. 3000 The SEC really flexes its depth in the 3k where there are multiple runners who have run sub 8:05 this season. Cameron Griffith owns the top seed time and as mentioned above, will certainly be looking to improve that time if he can. In addition, the Razorback will look to defend his 3k title from last year. Derek Gutierrez of Ole Miss has been one of the most versatile distance runners in the country this year running 3:58, 7:57, and 13:58. If the race gets tactical, look for Gutierrez with his speed to launch himself to the front. Behind him is the Alabama duo of Vincent Kiprop and Gilbert Kigen who, at the moment, have qualified for Nationals in the 5k. They both look like they are fully healthy after redshirting cross country and will be looking to better their top five finishes from last year. Some other names to watch are Kieran Wood, Arkansas teammates Gilbert Boit, Matt Young, and Austen Dalquist, and finally Zach Long from Tennessee. Wood won’t be fresh after running the mile, but he has run 8:01 in the 3k this year. Boit ran an outstanding 13:42 in the 5k, so he will be one to watch as well. Finally, Zach Long hasn’t raced a ton this indoor season, but ran 4:05 early in the season and a converted 8:08 a few weeks ago. The Volunteer was 6th in the 3k last year and 4th in the 5k. 5000 The pace of the 5k will be interesting to watch because Kiprop is right on the edge of qualification while Boit sits just outside of it. I doubt that the race will go out fast enough to earn either of these runners a better qualification time, but you never know. Joining them in the race for the conference title will be Kigen, Gutierrez, Long, and Farah Abdulkarim. The race should play out similarly to the 3k with pretty much all the same people in it. Abdulkarim is one name we haven’t mentioned. In his first year at Ole Miss, the new Rebel had a good cross country season and ran 14:02 this season. Look for him to mix it up with the top pack. DMR Ole Miss is the clear favorite in the DMR after they ran a converted 9:26 last week and are running Suliman and Gutierrez. The race behind Ole Miss should be very exciting with Arkansas, Missouri, and Kentucky all running their top guys. Kieran Wood and Ben Young are anchoring their respective schools while Cameron Griffith is running the 400 leg for Arkansas (??). While these teams probably don’t have enough to earn a DMR spot (which is incredibly deep this year), it should be an exciting race to watch!
- RMAC Preview
MEN 800 Probably the most surprising non-entrant in the entire meet this year is Thomas Staines. The defending champion has opted not to run the conference 800 this year in favor of anchoring CSU-Pueblo’s DMR squad. This opens the opportunity for someone else to snag a win in this event. Behind Staines, nobody in the conference has broken 1:50. Western Colorado’s Juman Randall currently holds the #7 fastest time in the country with his 1:50.17. Behind him, Nathan Oglesby of Colorado Mesa and Kevin Thompson of Colorado Mines have run 1:51.73 and 1:52.55, respectively. Four men in the field have hit the provisional standard with two more knocking on the door. If this race gets taken out quick, there is definitely the possibility for a few more provisional standards to be hit. Mile Austin Anaya currently holds the #2 fastest time in the nation this season behind his teammate Elias Gedyon. Gedyon is not entered in the mile and will instead run the 1200 leg for Adams State’s DMR team. This leaves the field wide open for Anaya to take the title. His seed time of 4:00.97 is faster than number two seed Josh Evans of Colorado Mines (4:06.2) by nearly six seconds. Whether through altitude/track conversions or true times, eight men in this field have run the provisional mark or faster, and could have the potential to wreak havoc if the race turns tactical as many championship races tend to. 3000 Adams’ three-headed monster of Sydney Gidabuday, Elias Gedyon, and Austin Anaya headline the top of the men’s 3k field. Gidabuday and Gedyon have both broken eight minutes this year, while Anaya isn’t far behind with his 8:05.2. This field is very stacked, as everybody except for one person has run faster than the NCAA indoor provisional standard. Charlie Sweeney and Taylor Stack of Western Colorado are legitimate threats to finish on the podium, while Josh Hoskinson of Mines and Kale Adams of Adams State also could score valuable points towards the team standings. 5000 Sydney Gidabuday is the only man entered in the field that has broken 14 minutes and currently holds the fastest time in the country by about six seconds. He is currently entered in both the 5k and the 3k and we will see if this plays into a slower more drawn out race in order to save his legs. Taylor Stack, who is also entered in both races, is a potential dark horse and could knock-off Gidabuday if he has a good day. Dalton Graham of Adams State is the only other person in the field to have broken 14:10. He is also doubling. With the number of people in this field coming off of multiple races, I don’t expect a barn-burner. Rather, I expect a more tactically drawn out kickers race to ensue. DMR This might be the highlight distance race of the weekend. Indoor championship meets are great because we get to see individuals shed some of their individual monikers in order to participate in a great team battle. This Colorado DMR matchup looks like it could be entertaining and competitive. Six of the 12 teams entered have achieved at least a national provisional mark. Of those six, five have slipped under the 10 minute barrier. Of those five, three - Western Colorado, Colorado Mines, and Adams State - currently occupy the top three positions in the national standings. The top five are only separated by about five seconds. With top names like Thomas Staines and Devundrick Walker abstaining from individual events to race the DMR, CSU-Pueblo could potentially usurp any of the teams currently in front of them. They have nothing to hold back for except this, which could make for an extremely exciting race! WOMEN 800 UC-Colorado Springs’ Skylyn Webb appears to be the top favorite. She currently holds the nation’s fastest time in the 800 with her altitude converted 2:03.87, which is nearly six seconds faster than the next fastest seed time. It will take a huge race for someone to knock off Webb. Behind the top mark, the race for 2nd becomes wide open. The Western duo of Bailey Sharon (2:09.6) and Jessica Cusick (2:11.8) could potentially rack up valuable points for the Mountaineers in the team battle. CSU-Pueblo’s Yasmine Hernandez (2:12.95) also has a solid shot at the podium. Overall, the top eight women in the field have run 2:15 or faster this year. Mile Another race containing the national lead, Adams State’s Roisin Flanagan is also a heavy favorite. Her seed time of 4:39.34 leads her teammate Tiffany Christensen (4:49.15) by nearly 10 seconds. Behind the Adams pair, Kara Burton of Colorado Mines (4:55.38) and Erica Ruiz of MSU Denver (4:56.47) are the other two women in the conference to have broken five minutes so far this season. Despite these seed times, running a slow tactical race at altitude opens up the opportunity for a kicker to make up valuable places. 3000 The Flanagan pair of Roisin and Eilish currently hold the top seed times in the women’s 3k. Behind them, two more Grizzlies, Kaylee Bogina and Malena Grover, occupy the podium and the #4 place seeds. This race could potentially turn into a quality final. 11 women in the field have broken 10 minutes. Of the 11, only two come from a school not named Adams State. Chloe Cook of Colorado Mines and Kennedy Rufener of Western Colorado will face the ultimate home field disadvantage as they race against potentially nine Grizzlies. It will be interesting to see if Roisin attempts the double along with the mile. Its not like they need her to run. When literally half of the field comes from one school, something tells me that team running could have a big impact. 5000 The women’s 5k field contains less Grizzlies than the aforementioned 3k, but that doesn’t mean the field doesn’t contain quality firepower. Malena Grover and Kaylee Bogina from Adams State are both entered in the 5k in addition to the 3k. These two are also the only ones in the field to have seed times under 17 minutes. Erica Ruiz of MSU Denver (17:18.05) looks like she could potentially be attempting the mile/5k double this weekend. Hannah Ellis (17:40.69), a freshman from UC-Colorado Springs, could also potentially score points in her first indoor conference meet. DMR The great thing about indoor season is seeing athletes shed off certain individual events for the sake of putting together a quality team effort. The distance medley is really the only opportunity for distance athletes to do this in a relay setting. The RMAC field currently contains four teams under 12 minutes. Only five seconds separate the first three teams. CSU-Pueblo (11:37.93) currently holds the #5 fastest mark in the nation this year. UC-Colorado Springs and Adams State have run 11:41.65 and 11:42.45, respectively, this season. Yasmine Hernandez is slated to run the 800 as well as the third leg for the DMR for CSU-Pueblo. Stephanie Cotter and Roisin Flanagan of Adams are also racing multiple events this weekend.
- MPSF Preview
The Mountain Pacific Sports Federation (MPSF) Championships features some of the best male and females runners in the country with distance powerhouses such as BYU, Colorado, Oregon, and Stanford all conjugating at Dempsey for a weekend of spectacular racing. The meet features a plethora of other athletes with potential to earn their trip this weekend (along with many who are already qualified). This is a must-watch meet for any track fan. MEN 800 The 800m is arguable the “weakest” distance event at the meet which speaks to the depth of competition given Isaiah Jewett of USC is currently ranked #4 in the NCAA with a mark of 1:46.60 (@). The junior ran that time at the historic Texas Tech Classic this season which produced an NCAA American record and five of the top seven marks this season. Given that Blake Haney of Oregon is seeded second with a mark of 1:49.60, this race is Jewett’s to lose. This race should be entirely championship focused as no one besides Jewett appears capable of making NCAA's in the 800 this season. Mile Another event that appears to be championship oriented is the mile. While eight of the top 20 marks in the NCAA come from MPSF athletes, none of these eight are entered in the mile this weekend. Of that group, six are qualified for the national meet in the mile with only Cooper Teare of Oregon and Alex Ostberg of Stanford sitting outside the top 16. However, both of these men already have qualifying marks in the 3000 and appear to be focused there rather than try the double at NCAA's. With most of the top-talent sitting this one out, the stage is set for William Paulson of Arizona State to earn his first MPSF title. Paulson broke 4:00 for the first time this season, running 3:59.94 at the UW Invitational back in January. The Princeton transfer has only raced twice since then - a 4:08 mile at Camel City and a 7:58 3K at Iowa State. He is the only man in the field to break the 4:00 barrier this season, but should face strong competition from a group of men looking to break that mark, led by Talem Franco of BYU. Franco has made big jumps this indoor season, cutting down his personal best for the distance from 4:03 to 4:01. With the progression, it is certainly possible that he breaks the 4:00 barrier this weekend if the race goes out at the right pace. Behind Franco, both Paul Ryan of Washington State and Marcus Dickson of BYU have also broken 4:04 and should provide a strong challenging contingent for William Paulson. 3000 The 3000 is where things begin to get interesting. The race is headlined by the likes of Joe Klecker of Colorado (#4), Cooper Teare (#7), and Alex Ostberg (#9), along with a group who will be chasing the qualifying mark of 7:52.69 which is held by James Sugira of Eastern Kentucky. Klecker will be the favorite coming into the race after running a personal best of 7:48.32 (@) at the Colorado Invitational. Two years ago, he finished 4th at NCAA's for this event and will be looking to earn his first MPSF title over the distance this weekend. The bigger storyline in the event might be the group of runners chasing a qualifying mark this weekend. Conner Mantz, Rory Linkletter (both of BYU), and Steven Fahy of Stanford are all on the outside looking in right now. Of the three, only Mantz has run a 3K this season, posting a mark of 7:53.32 which currently sits at #18. Both Linkletter and Fahy will be making their season debut at the distance and both would need personal bests this weekend if they hope to qualify. That is certainly a possibility given the talent in this field. With Mantz and Linkletter being teammates, the pair could easily opt to work together and chase a fast time, knowing that this is their last chance to do so. If the two can pull it off, BYU would have four men (along with Clayton Young and Connor McMillan) qualified in the event. That would be 25% of the NCAA field in the 3K from a single school...crazy. Of course, that is only if they can actually pull of the feat which is no small task given the current qualifying mark. This race should be a fast one and likely one of the most exciting events of any competition this weekend. With five men capable of running near the 7:50 mark, the conference title could go to any one of these men. 5000 With most of the top runners focused on the 3000, the 5000 meters lacks the same front-end talent, but features an incredibly deep field. The race has 17 men who have run under 14:15 this season, headlined by Robert Brandt of UCLA who currently sits #12 in the NCAA with a 13:40 season best. Brandt is the odds-on favorite to win the race as he comes in with a mark 12 seconds faster than anyone else in the field has run this season. Steven Fahy will be making his indoor debut at the distance and has run 13:44 indoors. His Stanford teammate Alek Parsons is coming off a personal best of 13:58 from Husky and should also be in contention. Both Stanford men would need big showings to come close to qualification as the #16 time is currently 13:42 held by Rory Linkletter. It would be surprising to see anyone new qualify from this race given Brandt is the only one who has run a qualifying mark and will have no incentive to chase a fast time this weekend. Unless Fahy and Parsons take it from the start, expect Brandt to come away with the win in this one. DMR If you have a chance to watch one event besides the 3000, make it the DMR. Currently, both Washington (#8) and Stanford (#12) are slated to compete at NCAA's, with BYU (#13) and UCLA (#16) close behind. Stanford has changed up their lineup from the last time they ran this event and will come into the weekend as the favorite. Their roster includes Alex Ostberg and Isaac Cortes, along with the NCAA 3K leader Grant Fisher. Last time they ran this event, Fisher split a 3:55 on the mile to anchor his team to a mark of 9:29.35. The team is currently ranked #12 in the NCAA which makes them the last team in and should move up in the rankings this weekend with their new lineup. Washington’s spot should be secured given that they are currently #8, but they also have upped their lineup by adding Talon Hull to the group. The Huskies should provide good competition for Stanford and will have a fresh Mick Stanovsek on the 1600 leg to battle with Fisher. Behind these two, BYU and UCLA will be chasing qualifying marks after falling just short last weekend. BYU has the better chance given that they currently sit at #13 and will be running the same group from last weekend’s Alex Wilson Invitational. Their time of 9:30.14 is less than a second back of #9 Illinois which means if they can make even a slight improvement, they should be headed to NCAA's. With both Stanford and Washington likely looking for fast times, this is the perfect setup for BYU. Even finishing 3rd at MPSF gives them a strong chance to make NCAA's, so time will likely be the emphasis over finishing place. WOMEN The MPSF Indoor Track Championship takes place this weekend and features some of the top teams from the western United States including Colorado, Stanford and Oregon. Over the years, this meet has become a key last chance opportunity for athletes to qualify for the NCAA championships due to it being hosted at an oversized track along with deep competition. This year looks like it will be more of the same - currently 12 runners from the MPSF hold one of the last qualifying spots in their respective event and another eight are on the bubble of making NCAA's. Here are some of the biggest storylines going into this weekend’s conference action... Properly gauging the mile The mile has the most athletes on the qualifying fence. Below are the current NCAA rankings... IN 12. Tabor Scholl (4:34.98) 13. Katie Rainsberger (4:35.15) 14. Susan Ejore (4:35.57) OUT - Assuming no scratches 19. Whittni Orton (4:36.14) 21. Taryn Rawlings (4:36.92) 22. Erica Birk (4:36.95) 23. Allie Schadler (4:37.12) As it stands now, four of these women will not make NCAA's if there are no scratches. We are currently projecting Weini Kelati (New Mexico), Nicole Hutchinson (Villanova), Alicia Monson (Wisconsin), and Allie Ostrander (Boise State) to scratch the mile, which would make Whittni Orton the second to last runner to qualify for Nationals. Still, there are numerous runner aiming for a time behind Orton, so her qualifying spot isn't safe. She is currently slated to race the 800 this weekend which should serve as a speed tune-up for the 1200 leg of the DMR, an event in which BYU is currently ranked #4. Orton is guaranteed a trip to NCAA's as a member of this team and looks like she will be focused solely on that rather than make one last attempt in the mile to guarantee a spot individually. Of the remaining women, all but Rainsberger are entered in the mile this weekend. Erica Birk of BYU is currently ranked #9 in the 3000 and is also a member of BYU’s DMR team, so even if she were to qualify in the mile, she would likely scratch the event. Similarly, Rainsberger also has qualifying marks in both the DMR and 3K and will be racing only the 3K this weekend. That leaves Scholl, Rawlings, Ejore, and Schadler left to fight for the last spots. Scholl and Ejore both already have qualifiers and barring any crazy scenarios across the country this weekend, both should feel relatively safe with their marks knowing that a couple women will likely scratch. As for Rawlings and Schadler, MPSF is historically a fast meet which gives them a decent chance at qualifying this weekend. The one thing that hurts them is that all of the women seeded ahead of them already have NCAA qualifiers and likely will not want to push the pace in lieu of bumping themselves out of qualification. How urgent is the 800? With Ejore looking to focus on the mile and DMR, it is likely that she opts out of the 800 (currently #13) which opens up at least one more spot in the event. That one spot could be on the line this weekend when Jemima Russell and Alyssa Brewer of USC toe the line. Russell currently holds the last qualifying spot as she sits at #16 with a time of 2:05.90. Only three spots behind her is teammate Alyssa Brewer who has run 2:06.12 this year. As it stands, Brewer does not make the meet, but could be the beneficiary of a number of scratches by women ahead of her. It is unlikely that Danae Rivers, Rachel Pocratsky, or Susan Ejore choose to double the mile and 800 which means Brewer would qualify for NCAA's. That said, her current standing leaves no room for error and she would be better off trying to better her mark this weekend, knowing that others around the country will be trying to do the same. The darkhorse of the field will be Lauren Ellsworth of BYU. Coming off a three second personal-best at the Iowa State Classic, Ellsworth has run 2:07 this season and would need at least another second faster if she wants to qualify for NCAA's. The sophomore has been consistently improving this season and will be one to watch this weekend. 3k spots to Nationals are up for grabs Moving into the true distance races, the 3000 features five women who have qualifying marks, including Jessica Hull of Oregon who currently sits at #2 in the NCAA. Hull may be going for the triple-crown this weekend as she is entered in the mile, 3000, and DMR. While it may seem like a big workload, there is a strong chance Hull will race all three events at NCAA's if Oregon can grab a qualifying mark in the DMR. Katie Rainsberger and Lilli Burdon of Washington are the 2-3 seeds in the race despite Burdon having yet to race the 3K this season. Outside of the DMR, this will be Burdon’s only real chance to qualify for Nationals and she will need help from Hull and Rainsberger to set a hot pace. Burdon owns a personal best of 8:59, but has yet to run anything near her personal best in the mile this season which could be reason for concern heading into this weekend. Even if she can post a fast mark, there will be plenty of women in the race also looking to cement their status as national qualifiers. Makena Morley (Colorado), Abbie McNulty (Stanford) and Tabor Scholl (Colorado) are currently set to run at NCAAs. It is not likely anyone ahead of them will scratch which means that Scholl (currently #16) is right on the edge of qualifying. The good news is she already has a qualifying mark in the mile. The bad news is both Kaitlyn Benner (#19) and Isobel Batt-Doyle (#24) will be chasing her for that last spot. Benner is one of Scholl’s teammates at Colorado, so it would not surprise us if Scholl scratched the mile to make room for Benner in the 3K. The only time Benner has run at the Indoor NCAA Championships was back in 2016 when she finished 8th in the 3K. She would need to improve by roughly 1.5 seconds (running a 9:07) which would better her personal best set two weeks ago at Husky. As far as the race itself, Hull is the clear favorite and should win regardless of the pace goes out. She has the fastest personal best in the field and the fastest closing speed, giving her the advantage regardless of tactics. The 5k is already set The one event which likely will not produce any NCAA qualifiers is the 5000. Top-seeded Philippia Bowden of Oregon comes in with a mark of 15:52, roughly ten seconds back of qualifying. Her teammate Weronika Pyzik is seeded behind her with a 16:05 and the competition steadily drops off after her. The race will likely turn tactical given the nature of championship settings, but given that Bowden and Pyzik have the best marks in the field by over 12 seconds, it should be their race to lose. Stanford and Oregon have one final shot The distance medley relay is the only true distance team event and there is a chance we see two teams chase qualifying marks this weekend. The top two seeds of BYU and Washington already have NCAA qualifiers and are not fielding their top rosters. Behind them, Stanford (#14) and Oregon (#22) could be making a big push to sneak into the national meet. Stanford is running almost the same group from when they ran 11:04 at Alex Wilson last weekend. The only change appears to be Ella Donaghu replacing Jessica Lawson, presumably on the 1600 leg. Donaghu has run 4:43 for the mile this season compared to Lawson’s best of 4:46. An improvement of three seconds would be enough to move Stanford into qualifying position - assuming everyone else runs to their potential. Oregon has only raced the DMR once this season when they ran 11:17 at the Arkansas Invitational back on January 25th. The team looks to be going all-in this weekend with Susan Ejore and Jessica Hull both entered in the event. The final qualifying spot could very well come down to a head-to-head matchup between Stanford and Oregon, in which case we like the Ducks chances. Hull has looked phenomenal all season and Donaghu’s mile best is nowhere near what Hull has run. For both teams to qualify (assuming no one in the NCAA runs faster this weekend), the pair would both have to break 11:00 which would then bump out MPSF rivals Washington from their current #11 ranking.
- Finding Balance (Part 2)
We took a look at our current Scratch Tracker projections and decided to analyze all of the key entries (or scratches) heading into Nationals. If you have already be sure to read Part 1 by clicking the link here . *We will be referencing our Scratch Tracker projections throughout this article which you can find by clicking here* WOMEN 800 Unlike the men, it is very possible that we see a few women scratch out of the 800 this season. The first name that immediately comes to mind is Danae Rivers, the Penn State mid-distance star who has been lighting up the track every time she toes the line. Right now, Rivers is ranked #3 in the 800 and #1 in the mile. What she will choose to race is a bit of a toss up. The 800 may not have the same level of competition that the mile will, but I think you can also make the argument that she is better in the mile than she is the 800. We have her scratching this event as of right now, but that could very easily swing the other way. Virginia Tech's Rachel Pocratsky not only qualified in both the 800 and mile, but she also earned a spot in the DMR. In theory, it would make more sense for Pocratsky to scratch the mile in favor of the 800, an event where she has built up her reputation as a mid-distance ace. However, the Hokies may choose to run Pocratsky in the mile so that she has more time to recover for the DMR. From that perspective, it makes sense. The same can be said for Oregon's Susan Ejore who we also have scratching the 800 in favor of the mile / DMR double. Even though these three women are expected to scratch the 800 for the mile, keep in mind that the women's 800 is significantly lacking in depth this year. If someone wants to increase their chances of earning an All-American spot, they will likely want to run the 800. We also have Samford's Karissa Nelson attempting the very rare 800 / mile double. While it's very possible that she only chooses to race one event, I'm not sure she is clearly better than one event over the other this weekend which is why we have her doubling. If she does scratch, we believe it will be from the 800 in favor of the mile, an event where she won the national title in 2017. Mile There is so much to talk about in this event when you consider all of the crossover between the 800 and 3000. We already spoke about Danae Rivers and Rachel Pocratsky, but the other name to watch at the top of the leaderboard is Jessica Hull who is currently qualified in the mile and 3000 and could add the DMR to her list of events. If Hull does qualify for the DMR, we believe she would attempt the (very difficult) mile / 3k / DMR triple, mainly because we believe Oregon will want to focus on accumulating as many points as possible in the team battle. Of course, we could very easily see Hull scratch from one of those races. If she does, she may choose the mile over the 3000 due to the lack of firepower the mile holds in comparison to the 3000. Plus, there are numerous names at the top of the leaderboard in the mile who could scratch for other events (Rivers, Gregory, Kelati, Hutchinson, Pocratsky). Doing so would give Hull a wide-open path to a national title. Weini Kelati seems like an obvious scratch. Although she has a top mark in the mile, she is simply better equipped for the two long distance events (3k and 5k). It will come as a shock if she decides to run the mile at Nationals. Both Lauren Gregory and Nicole Hutchinson are projected to scratch from the mile in favor of the 3k / DMR double, but when you consider how stacked the 3000 has become this year, these two ladies may be incentivized to drop down in distance and run the mile. However, that means they would not be running the DMR completely fresh. It's an interesting tradeoff to consider.... Colorado's Tabor Scholl is qualified in the mile and 3000, leaving us to believe that she will attempt to the double without a DMR to hold her back. She seems to be equally talented in both events (based solely off of this season), so it's hard to find an argument where she doesn't try racing both events. Katie Rainsberger is qualified in the mile, 3000, and DMR, but we think that the mile / DMR double will be what she settles on. The Washington junior is simply more experienced (and accomplished) in the mile this year and would have to deal with multiple superstars if she decided to run the 3000. As for Allie Ostrander and Alicia Monson, it is almost a given that they will scratch out of the mile. Between the 3000, 5000, and DMR, both of these women will be focused on events other than the mile. We'll get into more of that a bit later... Keep in mind that both Allie Schadler (Washington) and Rachel McArthur (Villanova) are just outside of qualifying right now based on current projections. If both of these women run fast enough this weekend, they could sneak into the final national qualifying spots. Both Whittni Orton (BYU) and Taryn Rawlings (Portland) are in danger of losing their spots to Nationals... 3000 For many of these women, running the 3000 makes a lot of sense. Still, the appeal of a less-intensive mile field may incentive scratches in the 3k. That could very easily happen with Nicole Hutchinson or Lauren Gregory, although we still expect them to run this event. We already mentioned Jessica Hull's potential conflict with the mile / 3k / DMR triple IF Oregon qualifies for the DMR...and let's say that happens. If she does decide on a scratch, it will likely be the 3000. Of course, the Ducks may prefer to keep Hull completely fresh for the DMR and then have her rest overnight for the 3k. It's happened before, but it simply depends on what Oregon's priorities are. 5000 Alicia Monson, Allie Ostrander, and Sharon Lokedi are the three names we need to focus on when talking about the 5000 meters. All of these women are qualified in the DMR, an event that comes nearly 20 minutes after the completion of the 5k. The scheduling makes it extremely difficult (near impossible) to double back from the 5k to the DMR. I think it's safe to say that both Alicia Monson and Allie Ostrander are scratching out of the mile and will be running the 3000. After that, things get tricky. Will these two women scratch the 5000 for the DMR, or vice versa? Right now, our projections show that Ostrander will run the same DMR / 3k double she ran at Nationals last year while Monson will opt out of the DMR, favoring the 5k / 3k double instead. Could the roles be reversed? Absolutely, but this seems to make the most sense at the moment. Sharon Lokedi is in the exact same situation. She doesn't have to worry about the mile (since she hasn't qualified) and will almost definitely run the 3000. However, she will have to face the tough decision of running either the 5000 or DMR. In our mind, it's an easy choice. Lokedi should scratch the DMR and run the 5000. Despite a great performance last weekend, the Kansas veteran simply doesn't have the leg speed to contend with the top anchors at Nationals. Instead, she should run the event where she is ranked in the Top 10 All-Time.
- MIAA + NSIC Preview
MIAA MEN 800 The 800 will definitely be the most exciting race with nine men all having run the provisional mark. Colin Webber from Pittsburg State has made major improvements throughout the season. Webber has dropped his personal best of 1:54.81 to the leading time in the conference with a 1:51.77 (in the span of two weeks). With an almost exact same time as Webber, Matt Christoffer of Southwest Baptist is coming in with a time of 1:51.81. Just .04 seconds separates the two. The impressive thing about Christoffer is his 49.01 speed for 400 meters which he ran last year during outdoors. This means if it comes down to a kick, the others better be wary of his finish. The next five contenders all have times under the 1:53 mark. This includes teammates Cliff Nicholas and Collin Welch from NW Missouri. The two have ran 1:52.11 and 1:52.17, respectfully. With all of these times relatively close, this could be any one’s race. Mile The two heavy hitters in the mile are Brett Meyer from Fort Hays St. and Jerod Broadbooks from Lindenwood. Meyer’s has consistently run fast times all year, he opened up at the 2019 Northwest Open running 4:06.08 and has since dropped his mile to a provisional time of 4:04.23, putting him 4 seconds ahead of his competition Broadbooks. Broadbooks has also been consistent in every race this year, including an impressive 8:38.84 in the 3000. This kind of range has Broadbooks entering the conference meet with a provisional time of 4:08.41 in the mile. Expect these two to take it out fast and hard. 3000 The 3000 favorite is Jacob Klemz of Washburn. Klemz’s time of 8.11.79 is the NCAA’s #10 fastest time. Klemz is no stranger to the NCAA leaderboard as he is also #10 in the 5000. Challenging Klemz is Karim Achengli of NW Missouri and Gideon Kimutai of Missouri Southern. They both have run times of 8:19.47 and 8:21.47, which hits the provisional mark. 5000 Jacob Klemz (Washburn), Karim Achengli (NW Missouri), and Gideon Kimutai (Missouri Southern) will all return from the 3000 to compete in the 5000. The three men have the top leading times in respectable order: Klemz, 14:12.49, Achengli, 14:13.09, and Kimutai, 14:13.17. Achengli and Kimutai have had quiet seasons compared to Klemz, but expect this race to be just as fierce between these heavy hitters. WOMEN 800 The top time coming into the conference meet is from Sassie Matzen of MW Missouri. Matzen consistently ran 2:19 in three straight meets and finally broke through at the 2019 KSU Steve Miller Open running a PR of 2:14.76. Danielle James from Lincoln (Mo.) will be challenging Matzen with a time of 2:14.82. Only .06 of a second separates the two. Additionally, the next five girls have all ran 2:16. Expect a very tight finish with a surprising winner. Mile Within the mile, there are four current women who have broken the five minute barrier heading into the conference championship. The leader from Southwest Baptist, Elysia Burgos, has hit a NCAA provisional time of 4:50.74. Burgos has dropped her time each week in the mile, so expect her to be more fit and faster this weekend. Behind Burgos are three women who have all run the time of 4:59. These women are Jordan Puvogel of Pittsburg St. (4:59.65), Tabitha Weber of Southwest Baptist (4:59.75), and Cassidy Westhoff of Pittsburg St. (4:59.77). The medal stand will be very competitive, only .12 of a second separates the three. Expect any of these women to be standing on the top of the podium. 3000 Cynthia Togom from Central Missouri has been the surprise runner of the conference. With this being the freshman’s first indoor season, Togom has already run a provisional time of 9:54:96, pacing the way in the 3000. Right behind challenging Togom is Mirena Goncalves from Fort Hays State. Goncalves has depth in the mile, 5000, and 3000 as she has run sub 10 minutes with a time of 9:58.50. 5000 The top three challengers in the 5000 have all hit the NCAA provisional mark. Cynthia Togom (Central Missouri) and Mirena Goncalves (Fort Hays St.) will both return from the 3000. The two women have times of 17:21.72 (Togom) and 17:21.89 (Goncalves). Sierra Mortensen of Washburn is the dark horse coming in with a time of 17:26.27 to cap off the three contenders. NSIC MEN 800 The 800 could be any one’s race heading into this conference meet. Josh Barrows from Augustana (S.D.) has a PR of 49.04 in the 400 and that kind of speed has resulted in a breakout year with a conference leading time of 1:53.75 in the 800. Behind Barrows is Benjamin Allen of Concordia-St. Paul with a time of 1:54.16. Allen is also a 4:13 miler, so he will most likely lean on his endurance and press the pace. Just .80 of a second behind Allen is Billy Beseman of Sioux Falls (1:54.96). Along with these close times, the next four competitors have all run under 1:56. Mile Zach Lundberg from Sioux Falls is the story of the conference. Lundberg has set PR in the mile, 3000, and 5000 just this indoor season. The most impressive comes from his leading mile time of 4:10.96. The next fastest time comes from Austin Pasch of Minnesota State with 4:12.21. Pasch has run 4:12 on a separate occasion at the SDSU DII Invitational, he is a very consistent runner so expect him to run even faster this weekend. Benjamin Allen (Concordia-St. Paul) will try to double back from the 800, he has a time of 4:13.05 heading into the mile. Derek Myers from U-Mary will also be a contender with a time of 4:13.72. 3000 The 3000 has three men that have run 8:30 or better. Steven Brown of Sioux Falls leads the way with a time of 8:26.85. Brown has great times all across the board, including a sub-14:40 performance at the SDSU Indoor Classic. This shows us that Brown has the strength to make this 3000 fast if he wants to. Just behind Brown is Sioux Falls teammate Zach Lundberg. Lundberg is coming in with a time of 8:29.29. With an 8:30.09 time from Luke Lahr of Minnesota-Duluth, he'll be in contention with the Sioux Falls teammates. 5000 There are four men entering the conference meet with sub-14:40 performances. Teammates Mason Phillips and Zach Lundberg of Sioux Falls have the leading times of 14:26.45 and 14:28.18, respectively. Derek Myers of U-Mary will double back from the mile and is entering with a time of 14:35.92. Just as he was a contender in the 3000, Luke Lahr of Minnesota-Duluth will be back to give the pack a run for their money given his seed time of 14:39.76. It will be interesting to see if Zach Lundberg of Sioux Falls will run the mile, 3000, and 5000. Lundberg is top three (based on time) in all of those events. WOMEN 800 Just like the men’s side, the women’s 800 is full of close times. Monique McPherson from U-Mary has a two second advantage over the next competitor with a time of 2:12.63 heading into the conference meet. The impressive detail about McPherson is her 400 PR of 57.54 which she ran at the Thundering Herd Classic. She has the foot-speed to make this race interesting. Following McPherson is Carly Rahn of Augustana (S.D.). Rahn has dropped her time this season from a 2:17.69 to 2:14.36. Bunched up closely behind Rahn is Bobbi Patrick from Minnesota State. She is entering with a time of 2:14.68. The next three spots have all ran 2:15, respectfully. This can be any one’s race. Mile Bree Erickson of U-Mary leads the charge with a sub five minute time of 4:59.86. For the most part, Erickson has been consistent all season running times of 4:59.95 and 5:02.74. Following closely by less than a second is Taryn Ceglowski of Sioux Falls with a time of 5:00.69. Ceglowski will be tough to beat as she has gotten faster every meet this season. She has progressed from a starting time of 5:10.36 at the Mines Division II Invite & Multi meet. Winona State’s Anna Rogahn is right in the mix as well with a time of 5:01.69. 3000 There are three women that have gone under the 10 minute window so far heading into the conference meet and it just so happens they are all teammates from U-Mary. Emily Roberts (9:49.66), Jaiden Schuette (9:55.53), and Ida Narbuvoll (9:59.36) are the trio who will headline this event. The only problem I see is that the three women have only run the 3000 once or twice this indoor season. We will see if this lack of experience will haunt them or if they will be fresh enough to get the team sweep. 5000 Emily Roberts of U-Mary looks to be the clear-cut favorite heading into this race. She has a time of 16:45.43, which is almost 17 seconds ahead of her teammate Ida Narbuvoll (17:02.19). These U-Mary teammates will be doubling back from the 3000, so we will see if this will slow down Roberts pacing of the race. Behind the two U-Mary teammates is Leah Seivert of Augustana (S.D.) who has impressively dropped her time of almost 14 seconds (18:04.42 at UW Platteville Invitational) from last outdoor season to 17:50.34.
- Mountain West Preview
Men: Sam Ivanecky Women: Sean Collins The first big meet of the conference weekend will kick off tomorrow when the New Mexico Lobos host the Mountain West Conference Championships in Albuquerque, New Mexico. The town sits at approximately 5300 feet which means altitude conversions will be given to athletes in the distance events. While winning a conference title will certainly be a focus, there will be a handful of athletes chasing national qualifying marks in their last chance before NCAAs. Below we break down the men and women to watch at the Mountain West Championships. MEN 800 Unless someone has a spectacular day, the 800 will likely come down to a duel between New Mexico teammates Michael Wilson and Kristian Hansen. The pair are the top seeds in the event and both have personal bests over a second faster than the #3 athlete in the conference. As they sit right now, Wilson and Hansen are #23 and #26 in the NCAA rankings, but roughly a full second back of a qualifying time. Both have run in the low 1:49's (altitude conversions), but will again be racing at altitude in a championship setting which greatly reduces their odds of grabbing a qualifying mark (depending on who you ask). The one scenario where they may have a chance is if a fellow teammate was to rabbit them through 400, but that would require Wilson and Hansen, and their teammate, to all qualify for the finals. With the duo sitting 1-2, they should not be in the same preliminary heat, so a qualifier would have to be run in the finals. Regardless of how they approach the race, one of the two Lobos should come away with the win this weekend. Mile The mile looks like it will be a race for the title given none of the athletes are remotely close to a qualifying mark. Michael Mooney of Colorado State comes in as the number one seed after running a 4:05 (@) at the Colorado Invitational. The freshman also posted an 8:08 mark in his 3000 meter debut at Husky a few weeks back and appears to be on a roll this indoor season. Tailing him all season has been Wyoming junior Michael Downey. At the Colorado Invitational, Downey finished under a second back of Mooney and was only three seconds back when the pair battled again at Husky. Downey comes into the race with more experience and almost identical personal bests. Right now Mooney is 2-0 versus Downey on the track, but Downey will certainly be looking to flip the script when they face-off in Albuquerque this weekend. One other man to watch is Cole Rockhold of Colorado State. Although he currently sits at #4 in the seeding, Rockhold was an absolute stud this fall before ultimately sitting out at regionals and Nationals due to an injury. His comeback tour kicked off with a 4:06 mile at Husky and he has had another two weeks to build that fitness. Given that his personal best of 3:59 is substantially faster than anyone else in the field, Rockhold is our pick to take the mile crown this weekend. 3000 Arguably the most intriguing event this weekend will be the men’s 3000 meters. On paper, the field does not look crazy - only one athlete, Addison DeHaven of Boise State, comes in with a time under 8:00. So what makes this race anything special? As of now it appears to be set up similar to last year. One year ago, this race was loaded up with Boise State Broncos who were looking to pace DeHaven to an NCAA qualifying mark. DeHaven was coming off an All-American season in cross country and was just outside qualifying for Indoor Nationals. Being his last opportunity of the season, the Broncos had teammates pace DeHaven for part of the race with the goal of running a time that would convert to 7:53. Ultimately, DeHaven fell off pace over the last few laps, but the effort was heroic nonetheless. This year is looking like it may be round two. DeHaven is currently #27 in the 3000 meters and sits roughly three seconds out of the #16 spot. With four of his teammates also in the race, it would not be surprising to see DeHaven give it another go this weekend. If he ends up faltering, either Paul Roberts of Wyoming or Luke Bailey of Utah State could be vying for the title. 5000 Similar to the mile, the 5000 looks like it will be a tactical championship race. None of the athletes are within striking distance of an NCAA mark, but the race should be great competition nonetheless. Miller Haller of Boise State and Paul Roberts of Wyoming both come into the race with seed times of 14:04. Close behind are Luke Beattie of Utah State and Riley Campbell of Boise State at 14:08. All four men have a chance to win this race, but if we had to give our best guess we would take Roberts. Paul Roberts had a fantastic cross country season where he led Wyoming to one of their best seasons in program history. He finished 20th at NCAA's, earning his first All-American honors at the Division 1 level. While his indoor track times don’t necessarily stand out, this is his chance to win a title in his first track season at Wyoming and we think he makes the most of it. WOMEN 800 The top two seeds in the four-lap affair are Kristie Schoffield of Boise State and Avi’Tal Wilson-Perteete of UNLV. Schoffield has excelled all season long and sports the NCAA #6 time of 2:04.34 as well as an impressive leg on the Boise State DMR that ran 10:56 in late January. She barely snuck into the NCAA outdoor meet last year and placed 21st. Since then, she has simply skyrocketed up the standings. Schoffield is the clear favorite and should be very confident in her hopes to take home her first ever conference title. Wilson-Perteete has had almost the opposite story, running 2:01 last outdoor season before placing 9th at the Outdoor National Championships. The UNLV star also made the indoor national meet last year. In 2019, she only managed 2:09 at the UW Invitational and has not run another 800 since then. Do not count her out just yet though, Wilson-Perteete ran 2:09 at the UW Invitational in 2018 before dropping five seconds from that time in the Mountain West final before qualifying for NCAA's. Who knows what speed she might be hiding? Regardless, Wilson-Perteete is the most likely to end up taking the pace in order to try to return to Nationals. With their history, expect both of those athletes to make the final and be the two competing for the top two spots. Behind them, there’s a solid set of athletes between 2:09 and 2:12 who could challenge for a podium spot. Nyjari McNeil leads that crowd as a freshman from San Diego State with her 2:09.29 converted time from this facility. McNeil also has 54 second 400 speed which is certainly among the best in the field. If the races get super tactical, McNeil could certainly be one of the beneficiaries. She must also be very confident in her 800 potential as she has opted to skip the 400 where she would have been the top seed. Mile Allie Ostrander gets the nod as the favorite in this race because she’s Allie Ostrander and it’s tough to pick against her in any race. More importantly though, Ostrander lucked into a much easier preliminary heat in which she is the only athlete with a 2018/2019 time under 4:47. Ostrander could clearly be the favorite regardless with her 4:35 clocking that places her at NCAA #17. This will not be an Ostrander fan article though, because she will still likely be tired from a DMR on Thursday night, a Friday mile heat, and will be looking ahead to the 3k final two hours after the mile final. Ostrander should be the favorite, but competition will be fierce and the mile has not been as strong for Allie O as compared to the 3k. In the other preliminary heat, there are four women who have run 4:41 or faster with only three automatically advancing to the final. There will be four time qualifiers. While that heat should be able to know exactly what time they need to run to qualify is, the strength of this heat will still string them out a little more than they would ideally have. Weini Kelati of New Mexico holds the top time in this heat which is the #4 best NCAA time at 4:33.34 and should be able to control any race she is dropped into. Kelati and Ostrander are probably the most versatile NCAA runners right now, with each in qualifying position at all three longer distance events. Kelati has the edge on Ostrander in each event and has the superior sprint speed, although Ostrander has improved in that area. Also in the second prelim heat are Alexis Fuller of Boise State, Cierra Simmons of Utah State, and Kieran Casey of New Mexico. Fuller has run 4:36 over the mile and has a 2:05.93 over 800 meters which could make her a borderline qualifier in the 800 if she does not improve her time in the mile this weekend. Fuller probably has the best kick in the field and could surprise if everyone continues to look ahead to the 3k, a race that all five athletes listed here are entered in. Simmons has run 4:39 on conversion and continues to make herself a factor in any race she’s in. Simmons will not want to push the pace and will need an extraordinary effort to hold onto Fuller, Ostrander, and Kelati in the final. Casey of New Mexico also has 2:09 800 meter speed and should be able to hold on to a kick if things go super tactically. Otherwise, Casey will have to go head-to-head with Simmons for a top five mark. 3000 This could easily be the race of the weekend across the entire NCAA. There are 50 athletes spread across two heats with the seeded heat absolutely stacked. Kelati and Ostrander will return from the mile with their sub-nine minute times. Additionally, Ednah Kurgat steps on the track for the first time since February 8th when she also broke 9:00. These three also set some of the fastest 5k times in NCAA history at the BU meet in December. This will be the first time that all three will face each other since then. As of right now, this Mountain West trio are NCAA #3 (Kelati), #4 (Ostrander), and #8 (Kurgat) in this event. This race also features NCAA #18 Hannah Nuttall and #20 Adva Cohen, both of New Mexico, who proved to be important scorers during the cross country season and have both impressed even more since then. Emily Venters of Boise State also sits in the Top 25 with her 9:08.66 and has shown impressive strength over the longer distances. Also entered are the NCAA #6 and #7 at the 5k's runners Charlotte Prouse and Jaci Smith. Prouse of New Mexico has not raced at all since that BU meet in December so it will be tough to guess what fitness she has in this race. She should definitely be looking to show that she has what it takes to earn a medal at NCAA's, but will probably not run fast enough to qualify for a second event here. Jaci Smith of Air Force has "only" run 9:14.90 in her one 3k this season, but has a 15:28 for the 5k at BU. Smith earned All-American status in XC with a 27th place finish and followed that up with an 8th place finish in the 10k during outdoors. Smith has not excelled quite as much at the shorter distances, but this is her only individual event of the championship. She will want to make it worth it, either with a win or a trip to NCAA's. With the New Mexico crew not doubling back for this event (except Kelati), they should try to take the pace here. New Mexico will have run their first DMR of the season two nights before and will know whether they can bring athletes to the championship through that effort by the time the 3k is run. The Lobos will also be fighting for any remaining points in the team race at this point and will be trying to help Nuttall, Prouse, and Cohen to fast times. While normally this race shouldn’t be taken out quickly, all signs point to this race being fast from the gun. If you can find a way to watch this one, you definitely should. 5000 The Mountain West 5k is much weaker compared to the 3k. The 3k was the better NCAA qualifying event for this weekend with so many 5k athletes already in qualifying position. Leading the charge by PR is Emily Martin of New Mexico who ran 16:04 back at that BU meet. She also ran 16:25 at the Husky Classic so her eye is certainly on the 5k. Maria Mettler of Air Force ran 16:14 at the Husky Classic as well (where she beat Martin). This probably makes the Air Force cadet the favorite heading into the race. Yukino Parle of Boise State, Sophie Eckel of New Mexico, and Alyssa Snyder of Utah State could also play a factor as they race the 5k for the first time all year. DMR Boise State enters with a seed time 40 seconds faster than the #2 team (Utah State) thanks to their 10:56 from the UW Invitational. That team had distance legs of Fuller, Schoffield, and Ostrander and should be the one of the favorites for the NCAA title. Keep in mind that Boise State also managed to win this event at the 2018 conference championships over a New Mexico team that was anchored by Ednah Kurgat. With Kurgat not entered in the 5k, and the DMR scheduled as the only distance event on Thursday, Kurgat could team up with Kieran Casey, Adva Cohen, Charlotte Prouse, Hannah Nuttall, or a whole host of other runners. Kurgat, Prouse, and Kelati, would all likely skip the DMR at NCAA's, but you can substitute two runners from your qualifying team at the national meet, so this could be a chance for New Mexico to earn an extra birth to Nationals and possibly contend for the NCAA title if they want to. Other than Boise State and New Mexico, no teams should be considered to run close to 11:10.
- Finding Balance (Part 1)
Welcome to championship season. As conference championships from all over the country begin to ramp up, many fans from across the country are gaining a better understanding of what the fields for Nationals will look like. Still, there are is a lot of uncertainty, especially with so many potential scratches (or non-scratches) that could take place in addition to the big performances we are expecting this weekend. Below, we took a gander at breaking down each of the open distance events and evaluating what we could see in terms of national qualifiers. Keep an eye out for Part 2 (women) tomorrow! *We will be referencing our Scratch Tracker projections throughout this article which you can find by clicking here* MEN 800 Let's start with the event that will likely not have any scratches. All of the top 16 men in the 800 seem relatively set in running that event. With the exception of Devin Dixon in the 400, none of the men in qualifying position are set to double in anything else other than the DMR. This means that, as of right now, Sean Torpy of Miami (Ohio) will be the last man into Nationals with a time of 1:48.44. Keep in mind that TFRRS does not have him listed on their performance list for some reason (even though he ran that time attached). Despite his favorable position, the BIG 12 Championships could produce fast enough times to bump Torpy out of qualifying. Hoppel, Koech, and Crisp have all run under 1:47 (via conversions), meaning that the race will likely be fast for the Iowa State duo of Festus Lagat and Roshon Roomes, as well as Texas Tech's Sven Cepus, should they choose to enter the event. All three of those men are just outside of Torpy's qualifying time as of right now. In fact, that also means that Robert Heppenstall is in jeopardy of losing his spot. Historically, Heppenstall is a great postseason runner who runs his best when it matters (championships), but he'll need to produce a season best to guarantee his spot on the line in March. Mile The mile may be one of the more interesting events in regards to scratches this year. The numerous double qualifiers in the mile and 3000 leave many athletes and their coaches with a good problem to have. Let's start with Oliver Hoare and Kyle Mau, two names who are essentially guaranteed to qualify for Nationals in the mile, 3000, and DMR. Right now, we have both individuals attempting the ultra-difficult triple of running in all three events. But why? Doesn't that seem excessive? I'm glad you asked, Mom. Both Wisconsin and Indiana are programs that will likely put their focus on earning as many points as possible for the team battle, which is why a triple for both of these men seems (somewhat) realistic. Plus, with Wisconsin having McDonald in the 3k and DMR, the Badgers may feel that earning an individual national title is simply a matter of playing the odds. After all, they have two title contenders with four title opportunities... What about Oregon's James West? He is currently qualified in the same triple that we mentioned for Hoare and Mau, but we have him scratching the mile. For West, his presence in the DMR seems vital for Oregon (especially when you consider how successful of an anchor he was last year) and trying to double back from the mile doesn't seem ideal when he can simply compete in the 3000 the next day. The same thought process goes for Alex Rogers of Texas who is not only needed for a DMR, but may simply be a better 3k runner than miler this season (which is not something I expected to say entering 2019). Other names such as Cooper Teare and Amon Kemboi aren't currently in qualifying position for this event to begin with (according to our Scratch Tracker projections), but they were likely going to forfeit their mile entry anyway to focus on the 3000 meters. However, Stanford's Alex Ostberg could attempt the mile / 3k double. He is currently the Last Man In for the mile and is comfortably positioned to qualify in the 3000 meters at the #9 spot. Assuming he isn't pushed out of the mile leading up to Nationals, then a mile / 3k double seems entirely reasonable solely for the fact that he has nothing to lose. Without any DMR responsibilities, Ostberg can focus on his individual goals. Of course, the Stanford ace could end up scratching from the mile if he truly believes that being fresh for the 3000 could make him a contender to get on the podium. 3000 We have already mentioned all of the crossover associated with the mile and 3000 which makes discussion about this event a bit boring. According to our current projections, we do not believe anyone will scratch. However, it is very possible that we see Oliver Hoare opt for a double instead of a triple. If he does that, then he would likely pursue the mile and DMR. Although he would have to double in the DMR from the mile prelims, his chances of pulling out a national title are far greater for the mile than they are for the 3000, an event where three men are at 7:44 or faster. The same could be said for Kyle Mau who may decide that he doesn't want to deal with one of the greatest 3k fields we have seen in a very long time. If he does attempt the double, it will likely be the event without Fisher, McDonald, and Kemboi at the top of the leaderboard. Although our projections disagree, we could also see Rogers, West, and Ostberg choose to run the mile over the 3000. In theory, it doesn't necessarily make a ton of sense since the 3k is the last distance event of the meet and they have nothing to lose by running it. Unless they're simply looking for a lesser workload, scratching out of the 3000 would be a passed up racing opportunity. Still, it's happened before and it could very easily happen again. If it does, then we could see some major shakeups in this field. Between Hoare, Mau, Rogers, West, and Ostberg, all five have the potential of scratching the 3k. These are the men who could get in depending on how many of the five aforementioned athletes scratch... 1 scratch: Cameron Griffith, Arkansas 2 scratches: Conner Mantz, BYU 3 scratches: Edwin Kurgat, Iowa State 4 scratches: Olin Hacker, Wisconsin 5 scratches: Isai Rodriguez, Oklahoma State 5000 There isn't too much to talk about in this one as the entire field seems relatively set in stone. Yes, we could see new national qualifiers on the NCAA leaderboard by the end of the weekend, but the cut off for the 5k may already be the fastest we've even seen it (Rory Linkletter, 13:42.07). Further more, there is a good chance that we won't see many scratches (if any) for this event. The 5k/3k double is the most popular double there is. Unless certain names decide that they would rather be fresh for the 3k and not race the 5k, the top 16 we have right now should be a theoretical lock.
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