You can find all of TSR's regional predictions by following this link here... Both the men’s and women’s 5k fields in the West are incredibly deep, meaning that with only 12 qualifying spots, accomplished athletes will miss NCAA's. Beyond the “locks”, how did you make your selections? Michael: I had a tough time making picks for both West 5k fields. On both the men’s and women’s side some people got left out, and ultimately for me, it came down to experience. Especially with the 5k on the last day of regionals after many entrants have run the 10k, the races will likely be tactical. Teams like the BYU and NAU men, as well as the New Mexico women, will have the serious advantage of being able to come up with a team strategy to get as many athletes through as possible. Younger/less experienced athletes might not have the skills to change gears in a large championship race like this, especially if they’re coming back from another race. Even beyond age and experience, I looked at conference performances as indicators of late-season fitness. Some of the highly seeded individuals ran crazy fast early in the season and did not really show up for conference championships. Sean: This was definitely a very difficult region and event to pick and experience definitely played a factor in my decision, but coaching and team success was a larger portion of my choices. I trust teams like Stanford, Colorado, Arkansas, Northern Arizona, Boise State, and New Mexico - the latter two on the women’s side in particular and NAU for the men’s - to perform well on Saturday night. Even if athletes aren’t doubling back from the 1500, 10k, or steeple, regionals is still a three-day championship meet and being able to draw on coaching experience as well as past team success can be a huge calming factor in preparing for the race. So when in doubt, I had to look to those teams to take the top slots. Maura: The west 5k fields were the hardest for me to choose because so many of the athletes deserve to run at Nationals. When selecting my top 12, I too had to look at experience and how well the athlete had performed at their respective conferences. I am assuming the 5k will become a tactical race because so many athletes will be doubling back from another race, specifically the 10K or even the steeplechase. One cannot go wrong with choosing an athlete from BYU or NAU on the men’s side or Colorado and New Mexico on the women’s side. Sean: Did either of you try to predict the 10k first and then see who might not go all out in the 5k after having already qualified? Or do you all think that everyone is going to try to qualify in the 5k regardless? Michael: I picked the 5k first out of habit, but then I went back and changed some picks after choosing the 10k. I think some athletes might be pretty cooked after the 10k and ease their way through the 5k, but I could also see some people letting up in the second half of the 10k if their chances of finishing top 12 don’t look good in order to put more energy towards the 5k. Either way, I think a considerable amount of top athletes entered in both won’t have enough to qualify in two races. It’s just that deep. Maura: I did the opposite. I started with the 10k since that race has to be run before the 5k. At least on the men’s side, since so many of the BYU guys are only entered in one race, it made it easier to choose based on who would be fresher. Sean: I went more with Michael’s method, but you probably had the better way, Maura. Just a note on how deep this field is: I’m realizing how I’ve accidentally missed people in these fields. I was so starstruck by Day, Rockhold, Boit, Forsyth, Rogers, Dressel, and Kurgat in heat one of the men's west region, that I completely missed that Clayton Young was in the same heat. For the record, I would still not pick him for top five in that heat, but I’m now much less confident in my choices. Maura: I too missed individuals, but they were more so on the women’s side. The amount of women under 15:45 in the west made it difficult to determine who could make it out safely. As I have noticed the previous years, the women are not as tactical as the men in their races. Dani Jones, Weini Kelati, and Taylor Werner are in heat two and should keep the race honest from the gun. Multiple high profile athletes scratched from events that they were viable All-American picks in, such as Morgan McDonald in the 10k, Paige Stoner in the steeplechase, and Geordie Beamish in the 1500. Why do you think these decisions were made and what effect will they have at the regional meets? Michael: I was most shocked by Paige Stoner not entering the steeplechase. She was 3rd at NCAA's last year! I am also surprised to see Rachel Pocratsky choose just the 1500 rather than go for the 800/1500 double after executing it so well at ACC's and placing 3rd in the 800 during indoor this past winter. Maura: Stoner’s decision to focus on the 10k left me surprised as well. For someone who had a season’s best of 9:51 in the steeplechase, how could she pass up a chance to race for a title? But I guess Stoner believes her chances of taking down the New Mexico duo of Kelati and Kurgat are high. Geordie Beamish, on the other hand, left me speechless when he dropped a 13:31 5k, which definitely puts him in the running for a top five finish at Nationals. Michael: I agree that Beamish’s decision seems like an easy one. I like his chances in the 5k better despite his indoor mile title. He will have a solid group of teammates to run with in the 5k with Tyler Day and Brodey Hasty, and that seems preferable over what may be a tactical 1500. Sean: Just a note on the Morgan McDonald 10k, McDonald choosing to scratch should not have actually made an effect. McDonald’s 10k from BIG 10's would have placed him at #49 after scratches, but there was a medical scratch by Ryan Murphy of Arkansas which could’ve put McDonald in the field. Still, choosing to scratch signals that McDonald is not risking his summer season on two back-to-back doubles. The only effect of his scratch is that there’s an extra spot in the 10k. Had it been in the 5k, I think it could’ve played a much larger factor, but in a 48-person race, I don’t think the presence of one more (or less) big star changes the race. Michael: I was just a little surprised that McDonald didn’t focus on the 10k more this season as his competition might not be as tough (since there's no Grant Fisher) if he were to chase a national title in that distance. He has a reason to be confident though given how he has performed on the national stage in cross country and indoors this year. Was there a bold prediction you were too afraid to make? Michael : Part of me really wanted to pick Brodey Hasty in the 5k. Going back to the depth in that field, I’m just not sure he is ready to take on some of the studs in the west in a championship setting. Sean: Not that this is a particularly bold pick, but I was afraid to pick anyone outside the top 20 seeds in the steeplechase. Of all the events, I feel like the steeplechase runs closest to seeds and picking any upsets there was just too scary. Maura: I agree with Sean about the steeplechase because those athletes do not want to get stuck in any traffic. I was afraid to pick Jaci Smith in the 5k. Even though she finished as an All-American during indoors, she has only raced once this event once this season. I can't gauge where she is based off of her MW performance. Any big names you left out? Why? Maura: As successful as she has been this season, I left out Nevada Mareno in the 1500. I know she has the potential to be an All-American, but I'm not sure that this is the season. Mareno only finished 7th at the ACC Championships behind some women who are entered in the east 1500. Mareno needs a little more experience, in my opinion, before she qualifies for Nationals. Sean: If you found a way not to leave out any big names, I’m jealous. Clayton Young and John Dressel were two of the toughest people to leave out and I just could not find a way to get them in the meet. Michael: You didn’t pick Clayton Young in the 5k OR 10k?? I think he’s bound to qualify in one. Sean: Sorry. I had both qualifying in the 10k. Was thinking mainly about the 5k. Had to leave off Cameron Griffith there too, but I have him in the 1500. I left Pocratsky out of the 1500 too for the women’s east region which in retrospect feels really stupid, but I just have a feeling that the rounds could end up not going her way. Michael: I may regret it, but I passed on Thomas Ratcliffe. Way back in the beginning of the season when we did the draft, Sean used his last pick on Thomas Ratcliffe with the possibility of bonus points. I think Ratcliffe will either miss NCAA's entirely or make it and get on the podium. It seems like Ratcliffe gets one good race per season, and I’m worried he already had it. He ran 13:32 early in the season and then had an underwhelming performance in the 1500 at PAC-12's. I also left out John Dressel and Ryan Forsyth, not because they don’t have what it takes, but because the 5k and 10k races are just so deep. I also left out Sarah Edwards of Virginia Tech in the 1500, which was honestly an oversight on my part. I think she has a good shot. Maura: Looking back at my picks, Ratcliffe is the 13th man in the 5k for me. His 3:55 1500 at PAC-12s was not promising, but I could always be wrong come Saturday. Switching over to a shorter distance race, I left off Ersula Farrow in the east women’s 800. That race has so much depth and I feel like she hasn’t been in a loaded race besides SEC's. Sean: I’m pro-Farrow, but she’s definitely risky with her front-running style and how fast she goes out normally. I think she stays far enough to the front of her 2nd round at regionals and she pulls them to the time qualifiers. A few questions relating to our Over/Under article Did you pick an bottom-half (#25 - #48) seeds to advance? Maura: I think Ben Veatch of Indiana will slide into the top 12 in the east 10k. The 10k is a long race and anything can happen. Veatch is seeded at #29, so he will need to work for a spot, but it is doable. At BIG 10's, Veatch finished two-tenths behind McDonald. Michael: I didn’t pick any bottom half seeds in the 10k, which was probably not my smartest move as there could likely be some. In reality, I overlooked Veatch. I picked Matthew Novak of Virginia in the steeplechase (#28) because I like his 1500 meter speed which could come into play in a tactical race. I actually picked Dylan Jacobs of Notre Dame in the 1500, and he was the last guy in. Maura: I considered Jacobs, but I don’t think he has enough experience, seeing that he is a true freshman. If he ends up making it through, you found a true underdog. Sean: Veatch is in my rankings too. I also picked Sam Ritz of Columbia in the 1500 at #37 in the east. My only women’s 25+ was Tabor Scholl of Colorado in the 10k where she sits at #30 Over/Under 5.5 BYU men making the 10k and 2.5 New Mexico women making the 5k? Sean: BYU under. New Mexico over. The four Lobo women are split three and one in the heats and I think Cohen and Kurgat get through together with Kelati through in the second heat. Getting six in the same 10k race just seems like too much. Michael: I say the same as you, Sean. Six guys making it for BYU seems optimistic (I picked four), but it is definitely not impossible. Kelati, Kurgat, and Cohen making it for New Mexico was an easy pick for me to make. Maura: BYU and New Mexico will both be under. Regionals will be similar to a typical workout for BYU considering how many men they have entered, but I predict only four men qualifying. New Mexico, on the other hand, will only see Kelati and Kurgat advancing. I may regret this decision by leaving out Cohen. Which team (over entire NCAA) has the greatest potential in a single event? Sean: Obviously BYU has great potential in the west men’s 10k, but I think the Ole Miss men in the 1500 are highly underrated. Cade Bethman and Waleed Suliman should be considered locks to qualify in most predictions with Dalton Hengst sitting as a strong contender. Additionally, Derek Gutierrez and Mario Garcia Romo are outsiders, but should be expected to make the second round of regionals. They are clearly good enough runners to qualify from there. Should all five athletes get through, I would consider that a greater team feat than four or five BYU 10k men qualifying since there are more BYU men entered. 100% qualifying > 75% even if BYU qualifies more men. Michael: Ole Miss in the 1500 is a good choice, they have been under the radar with their depth and it could pay off big for them. The New Mexico women have a lot of potential in the 5k, although I think Adva Cohen and Charlotte Prouse’s abilities will be limited because of the steeple/5k double. I think they all have top five potential at NCAA's (crazy considering there are four of them) if they are all fresh. If Cohen and Prouse can effectively come off the double, look out for New Mexico doing big things. Maura: The BYU men in 10k are at the top of my list. These men have the benefit of racing with teammates, men they train with every day. I think the BYU men will dictate the race from the beginning. But just like cross country, I think the NAU men will be tough to beat in the 5k with Day and Beamish leading the way. Sean: I wouldn’t put the Indiana 800 men at the level of BYU 10k or Ole Miss 1500, but they deserve an honorable mention here since they could realistically qualify four guys. Which #1 seed (any event, any region, men or women) do you think has the most challenging path to NCAA's? Sean: I’m thinking Yared Nuguse could have some trouble in the men’s 1500 as could Gilbert Kigen in the 5k (but not the 10k). Nuguse and Kigen struggled in these races last year which is never a great sign. Nuguse fell last year so his struggles are going to be more about mentality and staying out of trouble. If Nuguse wants to run from the front in both rounds, I think he can do it and still qualify which makes him much less vulnerable than Kigen. Kigen will come down to the 5k after a hard 10k two days before and will be without Chelanga. His teammate Noel Rotich could help him a bit, but that heat has a number of people who could challenge Kigen especially if it comes down to a kick. And if the race goes out fast, Kigen might struggle with heat or recovery from the 10k. Michael: I was thinking the same thing about Kigen in the 5k. That double is brutal and sometimes you only have one good race in your legs on a given weekend. I think both Nuguse and Oliver Hoare will have their work cut out for them in the 1500. I think they will both qualify without too much trouble, but their competitors won’t make it easy. Maura: I agree with both of you regarding the men’s 1500. Positioning is very important in this race and if one finds himself boxed in, more energy is wasted trying to find an opening. Hoare and Nuguse will easily qualify for the quarterfinals, but once they find themselves racing against the likes of Carlos Villarreal (west) and the Ole Miss men (east), it will all come down to who has the clearest path to the finish line with 100 meters to go.

MEN We have four men that sit underneath the 14:00 mark for 5000 meters this year. That’s the fewest since 2015 when only three men broke the barrier. Two of these athletes have been household names in the event the last three years while two new athletes enter the fold. Behind that top contingent, we have a very deep field with numerous contenders who will be in play for an All-American spot. Leading this top group is Grand Valley State’s Zach Panning. Panning is the reigning champion from last year where he held off the likes of James Ngandu and others. Coming into the weekend, Panning has to be the favorite. He has a mark of 13:37 this season and is eight seconds ahead of the second seeded athlete (Elias Gedyon). Panning will be doubling back from the 10,000 which is contested on Thursday night. He did it last year and came away with the title in the 5000 so this appear to be a major issue. The biggest question everyone is likely wondering is what will Panning’s strategy be? The duo of Elias Gedyon and Sydney Gidabuday, both from Adams State, likely pose the biggest threats to Panning. Gidabuday won the 5000 title during indoor season while Gedyon was able to take home the 3000 meter title this past winter. Both used the same strategy of allowing Panning to do all the work up front and then, with a lap left, went around to out-kick him in the homestretch. Gidabuday holds a personal best of 13:29, but has run "only" 13:59 this season, granted it’s the only time he’s run one this season. As for Gedyon, he has run 13:45 this season and it’s the only time he’s ever run the 5000 on the track (not bad for a debut). Both are entered in the 1500 as well, meaning they’ll have two races under their belts unless there is a failure to make the final. The other duo that is at the top of the TFRRS list is Western Colorado’s Taylor Stack and Charlie Sweeney. They ran their best races at the Oxy Invitational just a couple of weekends ago. Stack won the event in a strong time of 13:58. Sweeney was right behind him in 3rd place as he ran 14:00. The Mountaineers were All-Americans during the indoor season as Stack took home 8th place in the 5000 and then came back for 6th in the 3000. Sweeney was the 7th place finisher in the 5000. In addition to the 5k, Stack is running the steeplechase as well which would mean he could be racing for three straight days while Sweeney will be attempting the 10k/5k double (like Panning). Ruben Dominguez from Cal Poly Pomona had the fastest time in the country for most of the season when he ran 14:01 early on at the Mike Fanelli Classic. It was a big mark from Dominguez (despite his best being 14:04 from 2017) as it felt we had another athlete who could compete for a top spot. Dominguez was recently apart of a fantastic conference race that saw him finish runner-up. Eddie King from Chico State is the athlete who held Dominguez off from the top podium spot and his time of 14:06 from Mt. SAC was a seven second improvement. The two CCAA athletes are in a prime position to finish in the top five this weekend as they’re both only entered in the 5000 and will have fresh legs. Marcelo Laguera is a name that gets forgotten because he didn’t race during the indoor season. The senior Thunderwolf outlasted Panning at the Cross Country National Championship in the fall en route to a surprise title victory. He’s run 14:08 this season and has the #10 fastest time in the country. He will also be doubling back from the 10,000 from Thursday, but could Laguera pull off the same national meet magic that we saw in the fall? Josh Hoskinson is yet another RMAC athlete who is making the trip to Texas for the 5000 meters. The 3rd place finisher from the indoor season will be coming back to try and improve upon that mark this weekend. He’s solely attempting the 5000 this time around meaning he can run with the lead pack from the gun on fresh legs. Another name who should be vying for All-American spots are Victor Moreau from Academy of Art. He’s improved in every single race this season and has shown strong, consistent performances over the past few months. Mount Olive’s Tai Smith has run 14:08 this season which was a 16 second improvement and with fresh legs, he should be able to replicate that. Others like Tanner Chada, Tom Goforth, and Luke Julian all hold nearly identical marks of 14:10 this season. Chada is the only athlete who will be fresh going in as Goforth will be running the 10,000 and Julian will have run the 1500. The last name to keep an eye on is Daniel Wallis from Queens (N.C.). He will also be running the 1500, but proved during indoors that he has the ability to double after he finished 2nd in the mile and then 8th in the 3000. This race is going to be fast from the get-go. After seeing what happened during the indoor season, there is no chance that Panning is going to let this get slow. He wants to run his race hard and he’s going to force everyone else to do the same. We mentioned that Gidabuday and Gedyon stalked him during indoors, and they’ll likely do the same this time. How will Stack and Sweeney respond to a quick pace? There will be a chase pack, but the question is how many will decide to break away from that group and how early. You’ll likely see a five to six man race turn into a three-man race fairly quickly. Final Predictions Zach Panning, Grand Valley State Sydney Gidabuday, Adams State Taylor Stack, Western Colorado Josh Hoskinson, Colorado Mines Elias Gedyon, Adams State Marcelo Laguera, CSU-Pueblo Daniel Wallis, Queens (N.C.) Victor Moreau, Academy of Art WOMEN There is an overwhelming favorite and it’s Caroline Kurgat. The Alaska Anchorage senior has been rewriting record books this season and has already won the 5000 and 3000 titles during the indoor season. She’s been able to separate herself from most of her competition and has done it in convincing fashion. She’s coming back as the reigning champion in the 10,000 and 5000 and there doesn’t really seem to be anyone who can challenge her in the late stages of a race. She’s run 15:40 this season and it’s 20 seconds faster than the second seed. I don’t think that there is anyone that can knock her off the top spot. The challengers will likely put up a strong fight until the very end. Eilish Flanagan from Adams State has run 16:00 this season, Leah Hanle has run 16:02, and Julia Howley has run 16:10. After that, no one has run faster than 16:30 this season, making it tough to see anyone else being apart of that lead group. Flanagan will be doubling back from the steeplechase, Hanle will be coming back from the 10k, and Howley will also be coming back from the steeple. Will any of these ladies be able to have fresh enough legs to run with Kurgat long enough to give themselves a chance at the end? Looking at the rest of the field, it’s led by Haleigh Hunter-Galvan from Adams State. She’s run 16:30 this season and she’ll likely be apart of the steeplechase final the day before. Allie Ludge from Grand Valley State has also run 16:30 this season and she will also be coming back from another race in the 1500. Two names who have shown some definite range are Chloe Cook from Colorado Mines and Casey Monoszlay from Cal Poly Pomona. Cook was a mile and 3000 meter qualifier during the indoor season. She was an All-American in the mile, but didn’t have the greatest double back in the 3000. Meanwhile, Monoszlay has posted a top 25 mark in three events this outdoor season (800, 1500, 5000). She’s chosen the longer events as her strongest ones and if she can stick around the pack long enough, her leg speed should give her a shot at an All-American bid. Eileen Stressling of Azusa Pacific and Gina Patterson of Grand Valley State both have personal bests better than their marks from this season. They’ve run 16:32 and 16:36 respectively this season, but have marks in the 16:20's for their personal bests. They’ll likely need to return to this form to have a chance at an All-American bid. Both women will be doubling with the 10,000 as their first race and that might be their best race. The rest of the field is pretty similar in their times. However, Hanna Groeber of Grand Valley State was an All-American during the indoor season. Despite her having the #13 fastest time this season, she has the experience to be successful. Also, be sure to keep an eye on Ida Narbuvoll of U-Mary who was 9th during indoors. She’s another name who should be considered to have success on the big stage. Other names to watch for include Lauren Bailey from Indianapolis, Alexa Shindruk from Central Washington, and Malena Grover from Adams State. This is Kurgat’s race to lose. I’m not entirely sure how she will win it, but there’s the obvious two options. Bide her time and then strike late (causing everyone to fall off) or go straight from the gun. If I had to guess, she will bide her time. It’s going to be a strong race for 2nd place and it’s probably going to be a group of four to five women chasing silver. Final Predictions Caroline Kurgat, Alaska Anchorage Leah Hanle, Mount Olive Eilish Flanagan, Adams State Julia Howley, Simon Fraser Gina Patterson, Grand Valley State HaLeigh Hunter-Galvan, Adams State Allie Ludge, Grand Valley State Ida Narbuvoll, U-Mary

With NCAA Division II Nationals coming up this weekend, it is time to take a look at who could potentially stake a claim to the 1500 meter national title. A strong contingency of Colorado-based veterans on both the men’s and women’s sides look to have a strong chance, while some outside competitors and dark horses from the indoor season could cause chaos as well. There is potential for the 1500 to be the most compelling event at this year’s championship meet. Anything is possible, and I expect at least one or two surprises to come out of the metric mile this weekend in Texas. WOMEN On the women’s side, the top three seed times coming in all come from RMAC schools. Adams State junior Roisin Flanagan’s 4:16.42, which she ran at Bryan Clay, leads the field. The mark is three seconds clear of Roisin’s freshman teammate, Stephanie Cotter, who ran an impressive 4:19.84 at Payton Jordan. These two are the only ones that have broken 4:20 this season, with Western State’s Alicja Konieczek seeded third in 4:22. Neither Flanagan nor Cotter appear to be doubling, so the pair should be relatively fresh with a day of rest between prelims and finals. I expect these two to work well together much like they did in the mile final at the indoor national meet when they finished 1-2. The 3rd place finisher from that race, Allie Ludge of Grand Valley State, comes into these championships seeded fourth with a 4:22.33. She is also entered in the 5000 meters later that evening, so it will be interesting to see how that plays a role in how she runs her 1500 earlier in the day (given she makes finals). Walsh junior Andra Lehotay ran her personal best of 4:23.16 back in March coming off a 5th place finish during indoors. She hasn’t run quite that fast since, but she could be a formidable opponent in the right circumstances. Also returning from the indoor final is Edinboro freshman Stefanie Parsons. She ran 4:25.91 back in mid-April and has found a way to integrate herself into the All-American conversation. She has some respectable range which could come in handy for this weekend. On the flip side of things, Cal Poly Pomona senior Casey Monoszlay is an athlete who has been on fire when you look at her recent performances. She ran her personal best to qualify for Nationals only a few weeks ago when she had a phenomenal race to upset the field at the CCAA Championships in a time of 4:26.43. A dark horse, Monoszlay could potentially use this momentum from strong races late in the season to snag an All-American position or maybe even a top spot on the podium. Like Ludge, she is also entered in the 5k on Saturday evening. Monoszlay, as well as others in the field, must look to peak at the right time in order to usurp what could be a repeat of Adam’s indoor dominance. Final Predictions Roisin Flanagan (Adams State) Stephanie Cotter (Adams State) Alicja Konieczek (Western Colorado) Andra Lehotay (Walsh) Stefanie Parsons (Edinboro) Allie Ludge (Grand Valley State) Liz Bloch (Michigan Tech) Casey Monoszlay (Cal Poly Pomona) MEN The men’s side of things doesn’t appear to be as one-sided as the women’s. One interesting storyline has to be if the Queens duo of Daniel Wallis and Felix Wammetsberger can replicate their phenomenal 1-2 performance from Indoor Nationals back in March. They will face some stiff competition, as six men are coming into these championships packed closer together with seed times under 3:45. As usual, the Grizzlies of Adams State are represented well with Elias Gedyon owning the top seed time of 3:42.5. Behind him, Colorado Mines’ Luke Julian comes in seeded second with a 3:42.98. Julian is coming off of a victory at the RMAC Outdoor Championships over teammate Josh Evans, who is also entered in the 1500 field with a time of 3:44.94. Julian has been one of the better rising stars this season and a strong performance at Nationals could validate his breakout 2019. One of the biggest surprise entries in the field has to be Adams State’s Sydney Gidabuday. We are used to seeing Gidabuday running the 10k/5k double, but he’s opted for the shorter 1500/5k double this year. It will be interesting to see how his speed holds up against other more established speedsters such as Shane Bracken of Saint Leo or Brett Meyer of Fort Hays State. What we often forget after seeing Gidabuday’s successful transition to the longer distances is that he sports a 4:09 1600 meter PR from high school and finished 3rd at the California State Championships as a senior. He is no slouch in the middle distances and should be in contention for a title going into the final. Beyond him, there are a handful of others in the field, such as Academy of Art’s Victor Moreau, Sioux Falls’ Zach Lundberg, and Western Colorado’s Ross Husch who could make some noise and potentially snag All-American honors. Each of these men boast a specific racing weapon of either pure fitness, exceptional range, or veteran-like consistency. They'll be serious contenders in this race should they make the final. In terms of doubles and other races throughout the weekend, only one athlete, Embry-Riddle’s Calahan Warren, appears to be attempting the 800/1500 double. He comes in with one of the slower times in the 1500, so it is yet to be seen whether or not he can sneak through to the finals for that. If he can, he will have a busy weekend ahead of him. A handful of athletes, including Gedyon, Gidabuday, Husch, Moreau, and Julian are also scheduled to run the 5k final on Saturday night. Assuming a majority of these individuals make the 1500 final, it will be interesting to see if they decide to slow the early pace in order to save some energy. In this case, the advantage will go to those with the best finishing speed. At this level though, everyone has some sort of finishing ability. I expect nothing less than a dogfight with 400 meters to go come race-time in Texas. Final Predictions Daniel Wallis (Queens) Elias Gedyon (Adams State) Felix Wammetsberger (Queens) Luke Julian (Colorado Mines) Josh Evans (Colorado Mines) Brett Meyer (Fort Hays State) Sydney Gidabuday (Adams State) Shane Bracken (Saint Leo)

WOMEN If your name isn’t Caroline Kurgat, then winning the 10,000 will be a very difficult task at the National Championships. Kurgat, the senior from Alaska Anchorage, has been on an absolute tear the last couple of seasons. She is near unbeatable in championship races, winning 11 out of the last 12. The UAA veteran is the defending national champion in this event, and she even owns the DII national record of 32:08.09 which is also the NCAA’s #1 fastest time. These accomplishments may have you betting on her like MJ’s Bulls in the ’90s, but in sports, we all know that anything is possible. Let’s take, for example, the New York Giants upsetting the undefeated 18-0 New England Patriots in Super Bowl XLII. All season long, New England had the better players, coaches, and statistics. Of course, on a single day, anything can happen. In this field of women, there can be multiple “Giants” who are capable of taking down the ultra-favorite (Kurgat). Leah Hanle of Mount Olive was the runner-up to Kurgat last year at the 2018 outdoor national meet. Hanle is a heavy hitter and a consistent All-American. She has some very strong recent success by adding a bronze medal to her name at the Indoor Championships last winter. This season, Hanle has posted the NCAA’s #2 time of 34:09.11 (which is also her PR). Another great threat to Kurgat is Alexa Shindruk of Central Washington. The senior finished just 13th last year in this event last year, but is looking for a different result in 2019. So far, the added motivation is paying off as she owns the #3 fastest time in the NCAA with a 34:25.41. She has a huge chip on her shoulder with a shot of redemption on the line. Could the woman with the most to prove beat what some are calling the greatest of all-time? While looking at the rest of the field, Gina Patterson of Grand Valley State, Ida Narbuvoll of U-Mary, Eileen Stressling of Azusa Pacific, and Malena Grover from Adams State are the other athletes to break the 35:00 barrier. Jessica Gockley of Grand Valley State has also run 35:00 this season. All of those marks are their personal bests and give them a chance to run for an All-American spot this weekend. The GVSU women, like always, will have the advantage of being able to work off of each other in this race. Patterson and Gockley are experienced on the championship stage and are more than capable of finding themselves on the podium. It would also be a poor idea to overlook women like Grover and Stressling who have always kept themselves relevant on a national stage that is stacked and headlined by a few select stars. While they may not threaten for a national title, they are more than capable of sticking with a fast pace. That should benefit them should Kurgat decide to keep the race honest. However, on the flip side, this is a race that will likely be slowed down due to the humidity. It’ll be interesting to see who can stick around long enough to potentially scare Kurgat. So sure, Caroline Kurgat does have the accomplishments to back it up, but with great competition from these women, anything is possible on race day. Final Predictions Caroline Kurgat (Alaska Anchorage) Alexa Shindruk (Central Washington) Leah Hanle (Mount Olive) Gina Patterson (Grand Valley St.) Malena Grover (Adams State) Eileen Stressling (Azusa Pacific) Jessica Gockley (Grand Valley St.) Ida Narbuvoll (U-Mary) MEN With four out of the top five finishers in last year’s championship race graduating or not competing, there will be a new winner wearing gold. The one man that is returning out of top five? The runner-up, Zach Panning of Grand Valley State. Panning is looking to win his first ever individual title in this event. With star Sydney Gidabuday of Adams State opting to run the 5k/1500 double instead, Panning is the clear favorite. Not to mention his time (28:30) is almost a minute faster than the next competitor. With all this being said, there are new and hungry challengers who want exactly what Panning is chasing. The teammates from Colorado Mines, Ben Schneiderman and Ricardo Ocampo, have had terrific seasons - posting the #3 and #4 times in the NCAA of 29:25.71 & 29:30.04. They will look to work together during the 25 laps in order to make a title run. The other big name in the event who has a chance at gold is Marcelo Laguera of CSU-Pueblo. Marcelo had an All-American outing last year as he finished 7th with a time of 30:19.15. Since then, he has made huge improvements, dropping his time all the way down to 29:25.15. The 2018 cross country national champion has the next fastest time after Panning, and may benefit from the heat which will slow things down over the 6.2 mile affair. Some other names that should be looked at and watched throughout the race include Tom Goforth and Ryan Talbott, both from Saginaw Valley State. They come in with the #5 and #7 fastest times this year. They both had killer performances at Bucknell earlier this season, and Goforth looks like a steady senior capable of producing on the big stage. I think this is going to be the perfect field for him to compete in. Stetson Rayas from Dallas Baptist has put together a strong season of his own and has continued to improve this year. He has the #6 fastest time coming in this year and has been a fresh face at the top of the collegiate ranks in recent seasons. Jack Mastandrea (Charleston (W.V.)) and George McCartney (Malone) come in with the #8 and #9 fastest times this year. McCartney will be competing in his first ever national meet while Mastandrea will look to improve upon his 13th place finish in the 5000 from this past indoor season. If you're looking for sleeper picks that haven't always dominated headlines, these are two good names to watch out for... Zach Panning could run away with this title, but do not be shocked if it is someone completely different in this exciting race. There are a handful of strong talents in this field that deserve plenty of respect. Final Predictions Zach Panning (Grand Valley State) Marcelo Laguera (CSU-Pueblo) Tom Goforth (Saginaw Valley) Ben Schneiderman (Colorado Mines) Ricardo Ocampo (Colorado Mines) Jack Mastandrea (Charleston (W.V.)) Ryan Talbott (Saginaw Valley) George McCartney (Malone)

Seven TSR writers assembled all of their predictions for who they think will qualify for the National Championships in June. Check out all of 1,820 projected qualifiers (which includes First Out runners) on our predictions page by clicking the link or the above picture.

MEN The depth of the men’s 800 has continued to increase as the season has gone on. We saw Thomas Staines post the fastest time early on the season, but was quickly followed by Ayman Zahafi who came along and usurped Staines of that top spot. As of now, we have eight athletes that sit under the 1:50 threshold and they certainly qualify as contenders who will want to knock Staines off the throne. Staines ran another 800 at the end of the season and clocked a 1:47.53. While looking at the raw time, it’s a second faster than Zahafi’s 1:48.54 (converted down to 1:48.13). I think it’s safe to say that Staines is the clear favorite that was during the indoor season. He’s got the best championship racing ability of the group and also has the most experience of the group outside of maybe his own teammate Devundrick Walker. The two biggest threats to Staines this time around are Zahafi and then Grand Valley State’s Dennis Mbuta. Mbuta was the 2nd place finisher during the indoor season, while Zahafi took home 3rd place honors. Mbuta ran 1:49.03 at Bryan Clay earlier this year which is his personal best. Meanwhile, Zahafi set a new best three different times during the outdoor season. Both have the ability to stay on Staines the entire time and try and out-kick him in the final stretch. The question, however, is whether or not they have the foot speed to do so. Something worth watching is that Staines is apart of the CSU-Pueblo 4x4 team that has prelims just two hours later while Mbuta and Zahafi are only entered in the 800. We have three freshmen that are under the 1:50 mark as well. Queens’ (N.C.) Seb Anthony ran 1:49.10 at the end of April and has the fourth fastest seed time. Butare Regenerwa of West Texas A&M waited until last weekend to run 1:49.78 (converts down to 1:49.41) and TAMU-Commerce’s Timon Kemboi was 2nd to Regenerwa in that same race, running 1:49.99 (converts down to 1:49.62). Anthony was an All-American during the indoor season as he finished 8th at the national meet. Since then, he’s built up some momentum and has amassed quite a bit success. As for Rugenerwa and Kemboi, we’re not sure what to expect from them at their first national meet. They’re both in tough preliminary heats, so obviously their first priority is just to make the final. We have some names in the field who have plenty of experience and are also probably being overlooked as we near Friday. The first name being the aforementioned Thunderwolf, Devundrick Walker. He ran 1:49.47 earlier this year and should be in good enough shape to improve upon that if need be. The senior is entering his eighth National Championship and the multiple time All-American will certainly be looking to make a mark in his last national meet. Along with Walker is St. Augustine’s Shaquille Dill. Dill won this event back in 2016 as a freshman and then followed that up with another win during the 2017 indoor season. He’s run 1:49.95 this year and should be considered as a legitimate threat given his past results. Other names that are worth noting include Hugo Arlabosse of Franklin Pierce (5th during indoors), John Partee of Lewis (who recently ran a personal best of 1:50.15 at the GLVC Championships), Notre Dame de Namur’s Jason Gomez (who is just a freshman, but won the 1500 at PacWest’s and just ran 1:50.11 at the Oxy Invitational), and Joshua Ajiero from Albany State (who was the 3rd place finisher during last year’s outdoor national meet en route to a pair of 1:48's in the prelims and finals). Given the draws of each heat, it’s hard to say how each one will work itself out, but Anthony, Mbuta, and Ajiero are all in the first heat. That heat likely signals a slow race with the best kickers coming out on top. In the second heat, we have Dill, Zahafi, and Rugenerwa. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Dill or Zahafi push the pace in an attempt to make this the fastest race of the afternoon. Meanwhile, the third heat is comprised of Staines, Walker, and Kemboi. I can almost guarantee you’ll see this as the slowest heat as Staines and Walker will work together to ensure they both make the final. Final Predictions Thomas Staines, CSU-Pueblo Devundrick Walker, CSU-Pueblo Ayman Zahafi, TAMU-Kingsville Dennis Mbuta, Grand Valley State Shaquille Dill, St. Augustines Seb Anthony, Queens (N.C.) Joshua Ajiero, Albany State Butare Rugenerwa, West Texas A&M WOMEN On the women’s side of things, there is a ton of depth as well as a name that everyone is looking to knock off. I am, of course, referring to another RMAC athlete in Skylyn Webb from UCCS who has finished the last two seasons atop the 800 meter ranks. Webb comes in with a seasonal best mark 2:04.70 which was run at the Mt. SAC Relays. It’s the #2 time in the country as well. Webb ran her personal best of 2:02.47 at the outdoor national meet last year and I fully expect Webb to run the same type of race this year as she did then. She loves to run from the front, and if she is in shape, we’ll likely see a time somewhere in the same range as last year. Her challengers, however, have been very close when it matters, but not always good enough. Rachael Walters of Grand Valley State and Danielle McCormick have both set personal bests in the event this year. They both ran those at the Bryan Clay Invitational as Walters ran 2:04.15 (NCAA #1) and McCormick ran 2:05.00 (NCAA #3). I believe both are legitimate threats to take home the title this upcoming weekend. Walters was the 2nd place finisher behind Webb during indoors - only .15 seconds behind. McCormick was a second and a half back and finished as the 3rd place finisher. Both have opted for just the 800 instead of two events like indoor (Walters ran three) and should be fresher this time around. Also, for what it’s worth, McCormick was the indoor champion back in 2018 while Walters has finished 2nd the last four times she’s competed at Nationals. Carsyn Koch-Johnson used to be the dominant force in this event just a few years ago. She’s now a senior and she looks to be getting close to her old form when she set the collegiate record. Koch-Johnson is a four-time champion in the 800 and has run just a hair faster than Webb has in her career as she holds a best of 2:02.39. She’s run 2:06.94 this season which is the #4 fastest time in the country and gives us an idea that she is continuing to track back towards where she was a few years ago. Her experience alone should put her in a place of contention as she can get through the prelims with relative ease. Sophie Dodd and Alanna Mussatto are two of the three athletes from Simon Fraser competing in the 800 this weekend. Dodd and Mussatto have run 2:07.44 and 2:07.83 this year which happen to be the #5 and #6 fastest times. Dodd ran her personal best at the Mike Fanelli Classic earlier this year and has since posted a personal best in the 1500 (4:29). Mussatto ran her personal best at the Bryan Clay Invitational which was a full second improvement. Both ladies have consistently improved throughout the season and have the foot speed to keep pace with their competition. Kristen Metcalfe from Embry-Riddle is an athlete that can be considered a dark horse this weekend. She had run the second fastest time during preliminaries during indoors, but didn’t toe the line the next day as an apparent injury forced her to make a decision in regards to racing. She didn’t debut during the outdoor season until five weeks later at the Peach Belt Conference Championships. Since then, she’s run 4:25.56 and 2:08.15 which are good enough to get her into both events at the national meet. Western Oregon’s Olivia Woods is attending the sixth National Championship of her career. Her highest finish is a 3rd place finish which came in 2017 at the outdoor national meet. She owns a personal best of 2:05.91 and has been an All-American at every single national meet. She’s another athlete who has slid under the radar and is someone who could potentially find herself at (or near) the top of the podium in the right type of race. Currently, she has the seventh fastest seed time this year with a time of 2:07.93. I also think Bailey Sharon of Western Colorado could be in the mix of things as she’s run 2:09.26 this season and has been an All-American in her two times competing at a national meet. This is the first time she’s made the outdoor meet and I think she can replicate an All-American effort. Now to the heat draws. Skylyn Webb is in the first heat, and it’s likely that she’ll lead them to the fastest race of the day. With her should be Sophie Dodd and Kristen Metcalfe. Webb runs from the front and she’ll make it as fast as she thinks it needs to be. My guess is the time qualifiers come from this heat as well. In the second heat, we have Woods, Mussatto, and Walters as the top runners. I think Walters will take the heat win with Woods behind her. Much like the men's field, I think the third heat will be the slowest as McCormick and Koch-Johnson will likely play the clock and see what happens. It also helps that McCormick has a teammate in Ruth Cvancara who will also be looking to make the final. A team effort from Alaska Anchorage is a very real possibility. Final Predictions Rachael Walters, Grand Valley State Skylyn Webb, UCCS Danielle McCormick, Alaska Anchorage Kristen Metcalfe, Embry-Riddle Sophie Dodd, Simon Fraser Bailey Sharon, Western Colorado Carsyn Koch-Johnson, Cedarville Alanna Mussatto, Simon Fraser

MEN The NCAA Division II men’s steeplechase will have a new champion this year. In fact, with seniors taking all top five spots at last year’s national meet, we will have a completely new group at the top of Division II this season. With only two athletes from last year’s final returning to Nationals this season, and the steeplechase already being one of the most unpredictable events in track and field, the outcome of this race is up in the air. If we take a look at just seed times alone, two individuals automatically stand out. Leakey Kipkosgei of American International and Jackson Sayler of Adams State lead the field as the only two athletes to break the 8:50 mark this season. Kipkosgei picked up his time at Penn Relays a few weeks ago, running a PR of 8:44.13, while Sayler picked up his time in his only steeplechase of the season thus far, running a PR of 8:45.39 at Payton Jordan earlier this month. Behind that duo is Alaska Anchorage’s Wesley Kirui as he comes in with the #3 time in the field running an 8:52.35 at the West Coast Invitational just two weeks ago. The Hampton transfer competed in the steeplechase at last year’s NCAA Division I Championships, so he is no stranger to running against the best of the best. He is a legitimate contender for a national title, and someone who could completely take over the steeplechase in the next couple of years. Jonah Theisen of Black Hills State also has a strong case for bringing home a national title after running an altitude converted time of 8:52.81 at the RMAC Championships. Theisen took home the steeplechase crown during his freshman year back in 2016, so him being the only person in the field with that experience of a steeplechase title may give him a mental edge over everyone else. Sitting right behind Theisen is Walsh’s Jacob Kernell. Kernell made Nationals last year, but did not have a good race and was far from making the final. However, he PR’d by eight seconds this year, running an 8:52.87 at the G-MAC Championships where he took down fellow steeplechase qualifier Trent Classen (Cedarville). Another PR from Kernell could put him right in the mix to end up on the podium. Then there are runners like Lee’s Christian Noble, the aforementioned Trent Classen, Alaska Anchorage’s Edwin Kangogo, and Chico State’s Jack Johnson - all of whom have qualified for a steeplechase final in year’s past, but have yet to grab a top three (or even a top five) spot. They will look to change that this year. Taylor Stack could have a key role in this field, especially after his 13:58 5k from Oxy two weeks. It's clear that his fitness is top-notch, but will he be able to handle doubling back from what will likely be an ultra-competitive 5000 meter race? It will be interesting to see the strategy for the field going into prelims and then the finals. With Theisen and Western Colorado’s Taylor Stack being the only athletes doubling back for the 5k, there should not be any holding back from the rest of the field. This steeplechase will probably be the least tactical race of any of the races this weekend. With the field being so tightly bunched from top to bottom, along with the unpredictability that comes with the barriers, seeing how this race unfolds is going to be quite spectacular. Final Predictions Leakey Kipkosgei, American International Wesley Kirui, Alaska Anchorage Jackson Sayler, Adams State Edwin Kangogo, Alaska Anchorage Jonah Theisen, Black Hills State Christian Noble, Lee (Tenn.) Jacob Kernell, Walsh Taylor Stack, Western State WOMEN Unlike the men’s steeplechase, the women’s race does not have as much depth, as there is a clear hierarchy of three women at the top - two of whom came into the season as favorites - and one who burst onto the scene this season. Alijca Konieczek of Western Colorado comes in as the two-time defending national champion in this event, and goes into this weekend as the favorite with a Division II leading time of 9:52.32 which she ran earlier this month at Payton Jordan. However, unlike the past two years, this year she has chosen to double with the 1500 instead of the 5k, which adds a prelim race before her prelim of the steeplechase. It will be interesting to see if that affects her at all. Coming in as the defending runner-up is Adams State’s Eilish Flanagan who has been right there with Konieczek this season. She comes in with a time of 9:55.25 which she picked up at Payton Jordan, finishing right behind her main rival (Konieczek). Eilish has looked as good as any runner in Division II so far this season as she also goes into the 5k with the #2 leading time in that event. She has to have the confidence that she can dethrone the two-time champion and take home the steeplechase crown. The newcomer to the event this season who is a real threat to take down both of the women mentioned above is Simon Fraser’s Julia Howley. In her first ever season running the steeplechase, Howley comes in with a time of 10:02.45 which she picked up at the GNAC Championships. She has run four steeplechase races, all of which she has won by more than fifteen seconds. It will be very interesting to see how fast she can run when she has competition to push her. After those three, there is a large drop in time to the fourth spot which is occupied by Grand Valley State’s Hannah Groeber who, along with Megan Wenham of Colorado Mines, is one of two women returning who ran in last year’s final. Groeber picked up a PR of 10:23.52 in early April at the Bison Outdoor Classic while Wenham picked up a PR of 10:29.23 at the Stanford Invitational in March. Both women will try to grab that All-American spot that they narrowly missed out on last year. Joining Groeber are her teammates Holly McKinney and Madison Goen. This is Goen’s first season running the steeplechase while McKinney, a transfer from Central College, will compete at her first Division II National Championship. This group from Grand Valley State could get big points in a chase to a team national title. The most underrated name in the field is probably HaLeigh Hunter-Galvan of Adams State. She has only run the steeplechase once, running a 10:35.58 at Oxy just two weeks ago. Who knows how much steeple practice she had before then, but now that she knows what the race feels like, she may be able to make some noise this weekend. Other top names coming in are Tusculum’s Nicole McMillen, Hillsdale’s Allysen Eads, and Point Loma’s Zita Molnar - all of whom are going to be battling for their first outdoor All-American finish. This steeplechase will probably be a tale of two races. The first being what is happening at the front, and the second being what is happening behind them for the rest of the top eight spots as the rest of the top 10 is separated by only ten seconds. The showdown between Konieczek, Flanagan, and Howley is going to be one of the most exciting things we see all weekend. Final Predictions Julia Howley, Simon Fraser Alicja Konieczek, Western State Eilish Flanagan, Adams State Hanna Groeber, Grand Valley State Allysen Eads, Hillsdale Haleigh Hunter-Galvan, Adams State Nicole McMillen, Tusculum Megan Wenham, Colorado Mines

*Honorable mentions below* KEY (Unranked) Was not ranked during the last update. (#/#) First number indicates the change in a runner's ranking from the prior update. Second number indicates where the runner was ranked during the last update. 25. Justine Kiprotich, Senior, Michigan State (Unranked) Kiprotich reminded us all that he is one of the best tactical middle-distance runners in the country by beating Oliver Hoare at BIG 10's in the 1500. He doesn’t have PR's that put him at the top of the NCAA leaderboard, but the Spartan ace wins whenever he runs a 1500. This season, he hasn’t lost in a race that wasn’t a prelim. 24. Steven Fahy, Senior, Stanford (Unranked) The Cardinal has put together a very solid outdoor season after sitting out the cross country season due to injury. His 13:34 at the Cardinal Classic showed that his fitness was back, but his 8:43 win in the steeplechase at PAC-12's shows that he is ready to compete for a national title again. He hasn’t lost in the steeplechase this year and winning by seven seconds shows that he is ready to compete with the best in the country. 23. Conner McMillan, Senior, BYU (Unranked) McMillan joined his BYU teammates at the top of the 10k with his 28:11 at Payton Jordan. Like his fellow Cougars, he will hope that the regular season is a good indication of what will happen at Nationals. With a group of BYU runners, they should be able to dictate what type of race they want run which should play into their favor. 22. Gilbert Kigen, Senior, Alabama (-4 / 18) Alabama’s Gilbert Kigen has been very consistent throughout the year. He has run 28:20 in the 10k, 13:34 in the 5k, and won the 10k at SEC's. Most importantly, he has the ability to stay in the race at almost any pace and has experience from last year where he finished 7th in the at NCAA's in the 10k. He's a solid name to have in our Top 25, but a few standout performances from a handful of others pushed Kigen back a bit. 21. Geordie Beamish, Junior, NAU (Unranked) The indoor mile champ boasts a pair of PR's that are two of the best times in the country. His 3:39 at Bryan Clay might have been expected after his mile win during indoors, but running 13:31 at Payton Jordan came as quite the shock. He could do some damage at Nationals in the 5000 meters. 20. Waleed Suliman, Sophomore, Ole Miss (+1 / 21) In Suliman’s first meet since Bryan Clay, he took care of business by winning the 1500 at SEC's. This is another good sign for the young Rebel as he continues to improve as a championship competitor. 19. Carlos Villarreal, Junior, Arizona (-11 / 8) Villarreal didn’t run his best at PAC-12's, finishing 4th in the 1500 and 3rd in the 800. Still, it would be surprising if he didn’t bounce back. His 3:37 at Bryan Clay is still one of the fastest times in the country, and the senior is still one of the favorites in the 1500. 18. Daniel Michalski, Rs. Senior, Indiana (-1 / 17) Michalski has had a very consistent season, running 8:35 and 8:34 in the steeplechase in his first season as a Hoosier. Losing to Ali at BIG 10's by less than a second shows that he is close to competing for a title at Nationals. 17. Ryan Smeeton, Sophomore, Oklahoma State (Unranked) Smeeton shocked the track community by running a brilliant race at Payton Jordan to win the steeplechase in a blistering time of 8:27. Is the Cowboy a one-race wonder, or is he the real deal? That is the main question, but either way, he needs to be considered as the primary threat to taking the title away from Obsa Ali. 16. Kyle Mau, Junior, Indiana (-1 / 15) Kyle Mau bounced back from an underwhelming Cardinal Classic with a 3:40 on his home track. He later secured bronze and silver medal finishes in the 1500 and 5k, respectively at the BIG 10 Championships. Garrett mentioned this here, but I also agree that Mau's speed will be extremely useful in a tactical 5k. Outside of McDonald and Fisher, I think it could be anyone’s race in the 5000 meters whereas the 1500 seems to have so many contenders. 15. Conner Mantz, Rs. Sophomore, BYU (+1 / 16) Mantz, like many of the BYU Cougars, ran well at Payton Jordan and earned a PR in the 5k running 13:29. The sophomore has been impressive this season running PR's in the 1500, 5k, and 10k as well as flashing some speed. Look for him to pack up with his teammates in whatever race he runs at Nationals. 14. Tyler Day, Senior, NAU (0 / 14) Day ran the fastest 5k of the year at Payton Jordan with a 13:25 and reestablished himself as one of the top runners in both the 5k and 10k. Since then, he won the 5k at BIG Sky's by seven seconds. The 10k is shaping up to be a rematch from cross country with both NAU and BYU runners stacking the top of the performance list. 13. Yared Nuguse, Sophomore, Notre Dame (0 / 13) Nuguse continued his sparkling outdoor season with a win in the 1500 at ACC's. In what is becoming a loaded and deep 1500, the Notre Dame product will surely put himself in contention against the likes of Villarreal, Paulson, and Hoare at Nationals. In a year with so much uncertainty in the 1500, Nuguse continues to produce consistently strong results. 12. Cooper Teare, Sophomore, Oregon (0 / 12) Another week, another stunning performance from Cooper Teare. After finishing 2nd to Grant Fisher at the Cardinal Classic and running 13:32, Teare upped the ante and beat Fisher in the 5k at PAC-12's. The young Oregon Duck will certainly be one of the top favorites in the 5k next month especially with Joe Klecker out for the rest of the year. 11. Robert Brandt, Junior, UCLA (0 / 11) Brandt continued his very solid, not flashy, and underappreciated season by winning the 10k at PAC-12's. Along with the BYU men, Brandt has to be one of the favorites in the 10k, but he also should have an opportunity to score in the 5k like he did this past winter. 10. Obsa Ali, Senior, Minnesota (-3 / 7) Ali drops back a few spots after losing at Payton Jordan, but in my eyes, he still is the favorite to take home NCAA gold. The defending steeplechase champ did run 8:31 which was faster than any time he had run last year. Unfortunately for Ali, the steeple field looks much stronger this year especially with Ryan Smeeton throwing his name into the ring. Beating Michalski at the BIG 10 Championships is a good sign that Ali is ready for championship season. 9. Rory Linkletter, Senior, BYU (+1 / 9) Linkletter has had a short, but productive, outdoor season. He has run twice, producing times of 13:36 and 28:12 so far. Look for him to concentrate on the 10k and use his potent finishing kick to put himself into podium position. 8. Clayton Young, Senior, BYU (+1 / 9) Young threw down a 13:31 at Payton Jordan and like Linkletter, hasn’t raced since. The BYU runner has top times in both the 5k and 10k. With BYU stacking the 10k, my bet is on Young being the one leading the team like he did during indoors. 7. Devin Dixon, Junior, Texas A&M (Unranked) After a disappointing regular season, Dixon broke out in a big way to win SEC's in a stunning 1:44 performance. If anyone had forgotten about the Texas A&M runner, then this weekend was a great way for him to reintroduce himself. I still don’t think he’s established himself enough as a favorite in the 800 even though he has the fastest time in the country, but he certainly has put himself back into the discussion. Will this be the year that he gets over the hump at Nationals? 6. William Paulson, Senior, Arizona State (Unranked) Paulson is in the midst of a breakout season. He’s run PR's in the mile and 1500 and has done extremely well in championship races. He won the mile at the MPSF Championships, finished 5th at Indoor Nationals, and recently beat Grant Fisher to win the PAC-12 1500. He ran 3:38 at Bryan Clay to finish just behind Hoare, Villarreal, and Nuguse. I’m as guilty as anyone, but we have been underestimating this Arizona State runner all year. Paulson deserves to be one of the favorites in the 1500, especially now that Hoare looks beatable. 5. Marco Arop, Sophomore, Mississippi State (+1 / 6) While Arop did lose to Dixon at SEC's, he still deserves to be the top favorite in the 800 behind Hoppel. The Canadian has run well in championship races going back to last year’s outdoor 800 where he finished 2nd to Isaiah Harris. During indoors, he again finished 2nd to Hoppel at the national meet, and at this point, it seems like we are headed towards the same result. 4. Oliver Hoare, Junior, Wisconsin (-1 / 3) After Hoare’s statement race at Payton Jordan, he helped Wisconsin win the DMR and 4xMile at the Penn Relays. Everything seemed to be back on track for the reigning 1500 meter national champion. However, Hoare was recently upset by Justine Kiprotich in the 1500 at BIG 10's. While it is only one race, it does show that Hoare may be more vulnerable than we thought, especially when you think back to Indoor Nationals... 3. Grant Fisher, Senior, Stanford (-1 / 2) Not a great weekend for Grant Fisher. The senior failed to win any PAC-12 titles after getting out-kicked by Paulson in the 1500 and Teare in the 5k. No reason to overreact, though. We must remember that he has run 3:39 and 13:29 already this season and will be one of the favorites with McDonald in the 5k. 2. Bryce Hoppel, Senior, Kansas (+3 / 5) Bryce Hoppel makes the big jump to the #2 spot this week. The guy has been unbeatable all year. Literally, he hasn’t lost yet. He has run 1:45 twice including this past weekend to win the BIG 12 title. Even with Dixon’s fast 800 at SEC's, Hoppel has to be the big favorite to win his second 800 title of the year. 1. Morgan McDonald, Senior, Wisconsin (0 / 1) McDonald has had a strange season up to this point. He hasn’t raced any of his national competitors yet, instead he has settled for earning regional qualifying marks and winning a Penn Relays Wheel. I’m tempted to drop him from the top spot, but, after what he did indoors, he deserves the benefit of the doubt until we see him lose. On another note, it was interesting to see McDonald run the 10k at conference to earn himself a spot to regionals. This seems to indicate that he will be attempting the 10k/5k double at Nationals. Honorable Mentions (no order) Thomas Ratcliffe (Stanford) Ryan Forsyth (Colorado) Sam Worley (Texas) Reed Brown (Oregon) Illias Auonai (Syracuse) Cole Rockhold (Colorado State) Matt Owens (BYU) Clayson Shunway (BYU) Edwin Kurgat (Iowa State)

Look, I know it's against NCAA rules for student-athletes to wager on sports, but haven't you always been curious to know what the odds and lines would be for certain races? Even just a little bit? Don't worry, I promise you won't get in trouble for reading this article. Outside of the Olympics, track and field has virtually no presence in the gambling world (which may be both a pro and a con depending on how you look at it). But although you may not be able to find a bookie who can find a wager for your investment on a track meet, we've decided to conjure up a few "over/under" odds for a handful of fun (and strictly theoretical) bets... 5.5: Number of men BYU will send to Nationals in the 10k How often would you say that the top four men in a regional 10k wouldn't make it to Nationals? Not often right? Well that shouldn't change just because BYU owns the top four spots in the country for this event. If that stat alone wasn't impressive enough, they also have eight of the top 20 spots in the West Region for 10,000 meters. That's an awfully good number to have in your favor, especially when you consider the small number of bottom-half seeds who qualify for the national meet on an annual basis (but more on that later). The top four seeds seem like a lock, and with eight men in the top 20, it seems extremely likely that a fifth would join. But what about a sixth national qualifier? It's not totally out of the question when you have three more men in the top 20 and a ninth man sitting at #38 in the region. I initially posed this question to TSR's group chat, but instead, I put the number at 4.5 qualifiers. There was a relatively good split, but a majority of our writers went with the over. In retrospect, 4.5 national qualifiers may have been a tad low for the general public and I'm sure the men from Provo would debate that it's still too low. Frankly, they would have a pretty good argument. 2.5: Number of women New Mexico will send to Nationals in the 5k Yes, I know that they have the top three seeds in the West Region along with two others in the field (Martin and Prouse), but is anyone else somewhat, maybe, sorta concerned about all of the doubling that these women will be doing? At the West Regional Championships, Kelati and Kurgat will attempt the 10k/5k double while Cohen and Prouse will attempt the steeplechase/5k double. Emily Martin will only be running the 5k. The 10k/5k double isn't a major concern for me. It's a very reasonable double that has been done multiple times before. But the steeplechase/5k double? That's a bit more tricky, especially when you consider that Prouse is ranked #35 in the region for 5000 meters. You also have to consider the possibility of some athletes simply "jogging" the 5000 meters if they are already qualified in another event. Obviously, this goes against the "honest effort" rule which is designed to eliminate these kind of scenarios, but it is extremely difficult to police what someone's "honest effort" is, especially after they already completed a race. I think most people will still take the over on this one, but setting this one to 3.5 qualifiers just seemed too high. Ideally, three qualifiers is the sweet spot, but I think it's a very real scenario that only two of these women get into the national meet. 11.5: Number of bottom-half seeds in both of the men's regions that will qualify for Nationals Last year, 11 men who were seeded at #25 or worse in their respective region were able to qualify for Nationals. In other words, that's just a little over 9% of the 120 distance qualifiers. Obviously, it would be better to count these totals up from over the past few years, but if we're being honest with each other, I don't have that kind of time. In theory, races like the 10k and 5k offer more room for a bottom-half seed to qualify for NCAA's. There is simply more time in these longer races for the athletes to react to certain moves that are being made. Additionally, many of these races often turn tactical, which allows lesser talents to benefit from their finishing speed. Races like the 800 meters have little room for error, so if you're not running near 1:48 low or faster, then you're likely not getting into the Big Dance. I'm not saying this is an exact science or even that the numbers totally support my theory. But it makes a lot of sense in my head and frankly, that's the only thing I'm worried about. So when you're making your regional picks, think about how you want to hedge your selections. There's a good chance that at least one person in a distance race who is seeded at #25 or worse will make it to the national meet. Does that mean you go for broke and try to select the one person who could possibly surprise you? Or do you pick all 12 of your athletes from the top-half of the entries because it's the safer way to go? I just have the numbers, I don't have the answer for you. 6.5: Number of bottom-half seeds in both of the women's regions that will qualify for Nationals The number of bottom-half seeds in both of the women's regions last year was far lower than what we saw with the men. The total wasn't even six, it was four! There's a very good chance my eyes deceived me and that I missed a name or two when counting these totals. Still, it's extremely clear that the top women relinquish far fewer national qualifying spots than the men do. For the longest time, I have heard the very interesting argument that women don't utilize tactical racing as much as men do. Truthfully, I've bought into that idea a good bit, but this is the first statistical comparison I've come across that (might?) support the theory. Even so, I can't buy into the idea that only four bottom-half seeds will make it to the national meet this weekend. The East Region 1500 is stacked with a ton of top-tier names while the West Region 10k and 5k holds a handful of strong talents. Other Fun Prop Bets 3.5: Number of barriers / water pit falls we will see in either regional for the men or the women I have absolutely no data to support the idea that 3.5 is the perfect "over/under" number for this hypothetical. Still, it will give us something fun to keep track of while we're watching the Regional Championships. Straight Up: A #1 seed does not qualify for Nationals I have no idea what this number was last year (it may have been zero), but I have always been a little cautious about the men's 1500. The tactical nature of those races is extremely unnerving. He wasn't the #1 seed, but Waleed Suliman ran 3:39 in the 1500 last year and was unable to make it to the national meet. Just something to keep in mind moving forward... Straight Up: Indiana men earn a national qualifier in each distance event Some may think that even one team accomplishing this is nearly impossible, but have you seen who the Indiana men are fielding? Mau is a heavy favorite to qualify in the 500 meters, Michalski is a heavy favorite to qualify in the steeplechase, and Williams is a heavy favorite to qualify in the 800. Even Ben Veatch looks to be a phenomenal choice to qualify in the 10,000 meters. The 1500 is a bit less clear, but the Hoosiers have three men ranked in the top 16 for the East Region (two are in the top 10). If any team is going to pull this off, it's the Hoosiers.

Who was the most surprising name you saw when accepted entries were released? Quenten: Sydney Gidabuday of Adams State really surprised me being entered in the 1500. We all know Gidabuday as a long distance runner, regularly competing in the 10,000 meters, but this year he decided to switch things up and to be honest, I am all for it. Another big name in the men’s 1500 will be nothing but positive. On the women's side, I truly liked seeing that Liz Bloch of Michigan Tech is entered in both the 800 and 1500. Bloch has made huge improvements in both events over the years and I expect her to have a great outing. Maybe she'll even secure an All-American finish. Matt: Alicja Konieczek opting for the steeplechase/1500 double instead of the steeplechase/5k was a huge surprise to me. She is the obvious favorite in the steeplechase, but for the past two outdoor seasons, she has doubled back in the 5k, finishing 2nd last year and winning the year before. When you think about the prelims in the 1500, it will be interesting to see how she reacts to having to add another race on her ledger. As for the men, I agree with Quenten that it was very interesting to see Sydney Gidabuday decide to run the 1500 along with the 5k, rather than the 10k like we have seen him do in the past. Granted, he did not run a 10k this season, so he really didn't have a choice, but it will be interesting to see how he does with a 1500 prelim added to his schedule. John: Elysia Burgos stood out to me when I was looking through the entries. She’s just a freshman and has decided to double up in the 800 and 1500. She ran the DMR and the mile during the indoor season at Nationals, but failed to make the mile finals. Four races in three days is a lot to ask for, but she clearly thinks she's up for the task at hand. It’ll be interesting to see how things play out for her. On the men’s side, I’d have to go with Leakey Kipkosgei as the name who made the most surprising decision. Throughout the season I really thought he was going to double at Nationals. Instead, he’s only entered the steeplechase and his intentions are clear: win the damn thing. Which race has the greatest stand-alone value in terms of excitement? Quenten: On the men’s side, the 1500 is going to cause a huge stir of excitement. At Indoor Nationals, we saw the men of Queens (Felix Wammetsberger and Daniel Wallis) go 1-2 in the event, upsetting the favorite Elias Gedyon of Adams State. Heading into the national meet, there are two key narratives that we need to keep in mind. First, the men of Queens want to validate their National's performance from indoors. Wammetsberger and Wallis are racing to remind people that they are a force to be reckoned with. Secondly, Elias Gedyon wants redemption from indoors. He is likely going out there to prove that Adams State is still the top dog when it comes to any distance event. Matt: In terms of excitement, it is really no debate that the women’s 800 should be the most electrifying race at Nationals. There are about 10 to 12 women who could end up on the podium, which means some big names and legitimate contenders are not going to even make the final. Also, everybody is trying to dethrone Skylyn Webb, but there is an extremely small gap between all of the women at the top, with seven women running sub-2:08 this season. Quenten: On the women’s side of things, the 800 will be a shocking and exciting race. There is no clear-cut favorite in my eyes as we have four women under the 2:07 mark. Skylyn Webb of UC-Colorado Springs is the defending indoor national champion in the event from this past March, but a lot of things can change in just two months. Don’t be surprised when a new champion is crowned. John: The women’s steeplechase will likely have the most interesting storyline. With Alicjia Konieczek coming back for her last season, she’ll look to take home another title in her main event. Meanwhile, Eilish Flanagan and Julia Howley look to be the only other competitors who will give her a run for her money. Keep in mind that Konieczek will have a 1500 prelim before the steeplechase while Flanagan and Howley will have finished their steeplechase duties before pursuing the 5000 meters at the end of the championship weekend. It’ll be interesting to see if Konieczek feels any ill-effects from her 1500. Matt: On the men's side, there is no question that the 1500 is going to be the most exciting, closely contested race of the meet. With the top 12 guys separated by less than four seconds coming in, it really is a toss up of who is going to end up on the podium. Elias Gedyon, Felix Wammetsberger, and Daniel Wallis are the big-name favorites going in, but with all the guys so closely bunched at the top, I would not say there is an actual favorite. With six of the nine guys from the indoor mile returning to run this 1500 at Nationals (along with Sydney Gidabuday, Luke Julian, and others), there are going to be some key stars left out of the final, which could end up as one of the most thrilling and electrifying 1500 finals we've seen in recent history. John: I actually am going to side with the men’s 5000 this year. In recent years, there has been a stand-alone favorite that you can place your bets on. That isn't too different this year with Zach Panning coming in as the heavy favorite. He is, after all, the reigning outdoor champion and recently set a personal best in the event with a time of 13:37. However, I think this race could be super interesting when you remember that there are a handful of other stars in this field such as Gedyon (13:45), Stack (13:58), and Gidabuday (13:59). We will likely see a handful of different strategies come into play from these men in an effort to take down Panning. I'm interested to see which runner comes out on top. With numerous athletes opting for doubles at NCAA's, which one do you have the most faith in and which one do you think might have the most trouble? Quenten: I have all the faith in Caroline Kurgat of Alaska Anchorage who is doubling in the 5000 and 10,000. She is the defending champion in these two events and Kurgat knows how to manage the two. She ran 20 seconds faster than the next individual in the 5000 and a whole two minutes faster in the 10,000. My main concern, however, lies with Alicja Konieczek who will attempt the steeplechase/1500 double. The steeplechase puts a pounding on the body from jumps and awkward water pits. It is truly a tough race to get through, especially when facing top-tier competition. Coming back to run a fast-paced 1500 might prove to be difficult for Konieczek. Matt: The obvious answer to which woman I have the most faith in is Caroline Kurgat of Alaska Anchorage. She is far and away the D2 leader in both the 5k and 10k and is the defending champion in both events. We saw her do this double last year and she won with ease in both events. I think we will see much of the same this time around. As for my concern, the decision to double from Liz Bloch is worrisome to me. She burst onto the scene this season with huge PR's in both the 800 and 1500 (the 800 coming just last week) which is super encouraging. Although I like Bloch's confidence, I am just not sure that the huge jumps in time will equate to her being able to compete against the best of the best in both events. John: Caroline Kurgat is the relatively easy answer here. She’s the clear-cut favorite in both of her events and there is no one really near her in terms of ability. She’ll have an easy 10k race and will come back for the 5k where she should win again. I am, however, somewhat concerned with Kate Lilly picking the 5000 to double back in. Like Matt said about Theisen, it’s the last distance event, but it’s a tough race to come back and run well in, especially after the 1500. Quenten: On the men’s side, the 5000 and 10,000 double by Grand Valley State's Zach Panning will be an easy task. Panning leads the NCAA in both events with times of 13:37.94 and 28:30.77. Two gold medals looks like a promising result. On the flip side, a major entry decision that stood out to me was Sydney Gidabuday doubling in the 1500 and 5000. Traditionally, Gidabuday attempts the 10k/5k double. Both of those events are straight finals, while there are prelims for the 1500. It will be interesting to see how he handles the 5000 final with the 1500 prelims added on. Matt: Just like with Kurgat, Zach Panning of Grand Valley State is a very obvious choice when it comes to the man who I have the most faith in when it comes to doubling. Panning is the favorite in both the 5k and 10k and is the defending 5k champ. We saw him do this double last year, and while he did not win both, finishing 2nd in the 10k and then walking away with the win in the 5k is the next best thing you can do. He has proven that this national meet should be a very successful one for him. On the other side of things, I know that the 5k is the last distance event of the meet, but Jonah Theisen of Black Hills State trying to double back after the steeplechase is going to be very difficult. The steeplechase just drains everything out of your legs and with him being one of the favorites to medal, it will probably require a hard effort as he attempts to hang with the lead pack. I am just not sure he will be able to recover in time to be competitive in the 5k. John: On the men’s side, I am very excited to see Daniel Wallis run this weekend. After his strong indoor performance, I’m convinced he can do the same during outdoors. He’s run strong races throughout the season and I think he’s going to see a lot of success at NCAA's. On the other end of the concern spectrum, I think Calahan Warren of Embry-Riddle might run into a little bit of trouble running the 1500/800 double. The issue at hand here is that if Warren doesn't make the final in the 1500, the odds of him making the 800 final are even slimmer. I was a little bit surprised to see his name on the entries twice, but he might be covering all of his bases to try and ensure an All-American bid. Which athletes do you think are a guarantee to walk away with a gold medal next weekend? Quenten: Obviously, the two biggest names that come to mind are Caroline Kurgat of Alaska Anchorage and Thomas Staines of CSU-Pueblo. Both individuals are D2 national record holders and defending national champions in their respective events. Kurgat has been on a tear this outdoor season and I don’t see her losing in any fashion. Staines' story is a bit different compared to Kugat. He has only run the 800 twice this year, but he most recently posted an NCAA leading time of 1:47.53. I don’t see any of these dominating superstars taking a loss at Nationals. Matt: There are two obvious names that I mentioned in an earlier section, but I’ll go a different route with the defending 800 champs: Skylyn Webb of UCCS and Thomas Staines of CSU-Pueblo. Webb comes in with the #2 fastest time in D2, but we have seen time and time again that when it comes to racing in the biggest moments against the best competition, she is always up to the task. Staines, on the other hand, does go into Nationals with the fastest 800 time in Division 2, even though he has only raced the event twice this season. He has won the last two indoor 800 meter titles and he will likely grab a second straight outdoor championship win at the upcoming national meet. John: No surprise here, Caroline Kurgat is an easy guarantee to take a gold medal. I think you could ask most of the spectators this and they’d give you the same answer that we are. She’s been virtually untouchable in Division 2 and will continue to make her bid as one of the greatest athletes we have ever seen in D2. As for the men, I’ll have to agree with my other two writers here and say Thomas Staines. The three-time 800 meter national champion just recently ran the fastest time in the NCAA this year. He’s fantastic in championship settings (i.e. DMR anchor leg) and can finish better than anyone else in the field. Give us your bold predictions for Nationals Quenten: HaLeigh Hunter-Galvan of Adams State will finish top three for the 3000 steeplechase. Hunter-Galvan recently ran the event for her very first time at the Oxy Invite a couple of weeks ago where she posted a provisional time of 10:35.58. For a first timer, this is a very impressive result. With a week more to touch up on things, I believe she will surprise a lot of people. Matt: Julia Howley will take down both Konieczek and Flanagan to win the steeplechase. In her first season ever running the steeplechase, Howley has looked super impressive and has not been tested in any steeplechase race all season. Despite the lack of elite competition, she is still running very quick times, including a 10:02.45 which sits at #3 in D2. In a race that has been dominated by one individual the past two years, I think we see a shakeup at Nationals. John: On the women’s side, I’m going to pick Danielle McCormick to win the 800. I think she is slightly under the radar because of where she goes to school, but she’s got the #3 fastest time in D2 and was the conference winner in the event. She’s also improved in the 1500 (an event I thought she would double in) over the course of the season which shows us that she has the strength to run faster than 2:05 if she needs to. I think Skylyn Webb of UCCS is somewhat vulnerable going into the NCAA meet and that this will be McCormick's best chance to dethrone her. Quenten: Very bold prediction: a freshman wins the men’s 1500. Luke Julian of Colorado Mines enters the race with the #2 fastest time in D2 with a mark of 3:42.98. Julian may not be as experienced as the Queens or Adams State men, but he absolutely has the fitness to win it all. Matt: Really bold prediction time: Victor Moreau finishes top three in both the 1500 and 5000. Moreau is constantly overlooked as one of the best competitors in D2 and has shown that he can compete at national meets as he ran extremely well during indoors earlier this year. After picking up PR's in the 800, 1500, and 5000 this season, I think Moreau is primed to surprise people and make a run at a couple of top three finishes. John: Taylor Stack wins the men’s steeplechase this year. After seeing him post a 13:58 in the 5000, I think he’s well-suited for a very good race in the steeple. I think he is in shape to run under 8:50 if the race went out hard. Despite being entered in a loaded field, I think he'll walk away victorious as he holds off the competition in the last 50 meters.