Who Can Beat Kerr?

Josh Kerr is the NCAA’s newest starlet. After a shocking upset win against Edward Cheserek in the mile at the Indoor National Championships, Kerr silenced any and all naysayers with an absurd 3:35 at the Bryan Clay Invite. If that wasn't impressive enough, the New Mexico stud is just a sophomore. Kerr’s already displayed the high race IQ to take down King Ches AND the speed to clock a time that is rarely accomplished at the collegiate level.

Taking all of this into account, it is with good reason to believe that Kerr could dominate the NCAA mile/1500 at nationals for the next two and a half years (assuming he doesn’t turn pro)! With the high level of talent that currently competes on the college scene, it seems flabbergasting that Kerr could win potentially 6 NCAA titles in essentially one event (3xIndoor Mile, 3xOutdoor 1500), so let’s look at some names that could maybe bring him down.

Edward Cheserek

This one feels like a bit of a pipe dream, but I have to mention it just in case. Ches is the collegiate record holder for the mile indoors with his ridiculous 3:52 at BU this year. Based on this evidence, we know that Ches could hang with Kerr in an all-out effort. On the other hand, we have seen Kerr beat Ches in a tactical race, but that feels like a bit of an outlier. Ches was coming back from the 5k and that seemed to play a role on his race. That’s not to take away from Kerr’s shocking upset, but if Ches were to go all in for the 1500 at NCAAs this spring, he would be the heavy favorite. This is all probably for not, however, as it is pretty unlikely that Ches runs the 1500 for his final championship meet. Barring a surprise decision from Andy Powell and The King, Kerr is probably safe on this front.

The Wiley Vets

Ed Cheserek is clearly the ace of his class, but there are still some pretty talented names in the 1500 field with a lot of race experience who will not be intimidated by Kerr’s résumé. After the likes of Clayton Murphy, Izaic Yorks, and Brannon Kidder all left the NCAA, there were plenty of names outside of Kerr’s that appeared ready to fill the 1500 power vacuum.

One of those names (and unsurprisingly, the name I’m starting out with) is Craig Engels. A couple weeks ago, I backed Engels as the favorite for a national title based on his superior PR’s over Kerr. Now, I don’t want to take credit for Kerr running 3:35, but he probably read what I wrote about him (which was published just before Bryan Clay, I might add) and decided to make me look dumb. Well Josh, mission accomplished. Anyway, Engels is still a very dangerous runner to Kerr. I know the sensational Scottish superstar beat Engels head to head at Bryan Clay by nearly two seconds, but let’s look at the senior’s credentials: PRs of 1:46/3:37, All American honors in the 1500 (something that Kerr cannot boast), an NCAA title in his own right in the DMR, a proven track record in advancing through rounds when healthy, and still the most swagger of anyone in the NCAA. He may not be the favorite, but I would not be shocked to see Engels bring home the victory at nationals.

Despite his struggles over this past year, Henry Wynne remains one of the most interesting names in the 1500 discussion. Sure, he isn’t the Henry Wynne of last year who seemingly couldn’t lose for months on end, but the Virginia senior appears to be trending in the right direction. The 3:42 at the Virginia Challenge isn’t earth shattering, but he did manage to beat big names like James Randon and Neil Gourley. If Wynne can find his stride heading towards the postseason, he is a real threat to win a title. Let’s not forget Wynne flashed incredible maturity and race instincts over the course of last year. That doesn’t go away, and that makes Wynne relevant in any discussion.

A final senior with the capacity to take down Kerr is Josh Thompson of Oklahoma State. A transfer athlete, Thompson has been a revelation for the Cowboys, taking the NCAA by storm, clocking PRs of 3:38/3:56. Although Thompson hasn’t always been at his best for nationals, his strong kick makes him a danger in any race. Time after time, Thompson has flashed the capacity to fly by his rivals coming down the homestretch, seemingly out of nowhere. If the 1500 final is tactical this spring, perhaps Thompson could steal a victory much in the fashion of his former teammate Chad Noelle, who won the 1500 in 2015, using a strong kick to win in tactical 3:54.

Oregon Ducks Not Named Edward Cheserek

The Oregon Ducks are loaded with milers the same way my writing is littered with bad jokes. The youngest, and potentially biggest threat to Josh Kerr, is freshman Austin Tamagno. A highly-touted prospect in high school, Tamagno has started his collegiate career well, clocking some good times during indoor, helping the Oregon DMR team to All-American accolades, and running a 3:41.33 at Bryan Clay, which is good enough for 10th fastest in the entire country as of right now (I’m writing this on April 27th). While Tamagno has looked good thus far, we haven’t seen him run an individual event at nationals, and the jump from 3:41 to 3:35 is extreme.

Another Oregon runner who poses a potential risk to Kerr’s dominance is Matt Maton. Sub-four out of high school, Maton wasted no time adjusting to collegiate racing. Still just a sophomore, Maton’s accomplishments range from PRs of 3:39/3:58 to All American honors in cross country. Maton’s strength bodes well for him, but does he have the raw speed to compete with Kerr in a final kick?

A final Duck worth noting is Blake Haney, who appears to be on track to overcome the struggles he’s dealt with over the past few months. It is easy to forget that in outdoor of 2015 and indoor of 2015/16, Haney was the darling of the NCAA: he finished 3rd at nationals as a true freshman, and followed up with a 3:56 mile and a runner-up showing at indoor nationals. After missing All-American for the past two track seasons, Haney ran 3:42 at Bryan Clay, which will hopefully kickstart his comeback tour. Now a junior, I question Haney’s ability to get back to elite level and challenge Kerr.

While Tim Gorman and Sam Prakel are both talented runners for the Ducks, neither is winning an NCAA title anytime soon.

Wildcards!

There are a number of talented runners across the NCAA who may not immediately come to find as milers or top contenders, but I’m mentioning them just in case they ever do beat Kerr, I’ll look very smart. Justyn Knight, as mentioned above, is one of the premier runners in college, and has underrated speed as a miler (he’s known for his long-distance accolades, but he’s run 3:39/3:56). Knight has never pursued middle distance events at nationals, but he’s a proven racer and uber talented.

The Stanford duo of Grant Fisher and Thomas Ratcliffe were both highly touted milers in high schoolers, and have both had standout races since joining the Cardinal (Fisher with obviously a more proven track record). Although Stanford tends to race their studs in the 5k outside, it seems possible one or both of these young guns could race Kerr indoors.

While Rob Heppenstall continues to be the most underrated runners in college, Texas sophomore Alex Rogers is a top contender for second; he qualified for nationals in the 1500m as a true freshman, and has improved his PRs to 1:48/3:40 this outdoor season. Unfortunately for those hoping for a matchup, Rogers has also run 8:48 in the steeple, and the smart money would be on him racing in that come nationals.

Colorado’s Ben Saarel never seems to be 100%, but if he is at full strength for the championship season, Mark Wetmore may be able to work his magic and steal a title.

This one seems like a long-shot now, but if Michael Slagowski were to make a comeback, an upset national title would make for just a perfect ending to his story. It’s easy to forget just how dominant he was prior to joining Penn State. Speaking of the Nittany Lions, Domenic Perretta has been one of the best true freshman in the country. Could he follow in the footsteps of Brannon Kidder and make the jump to the 1500/mile? Stranger things have happened.

Current High Schoolers

Could Josh Kerr’s kryptonite not even be in college yet? The high school class of 2017 features three runners who have already run 4:00: DJ Principe, Sam Worley, and Cooper Teare. Principe is headed to Stanford and will likely join the Fisher/Ratcliffe coalition to move up to longer distancs, but Worley and Teare are bound for Texas and Oregon respectively, where they will likely focus in on the mile. Joining Worley at Texas is Reed Brown, who boasts a PR of 4:03. If Brown, Worley, or Teare make a big jump at the next level, maybe they could contend with an older Kerr.

Are there runners who may end up beating Kerr that I totally forgot? Probably. Could Kerr continue his reign over the NCAA for the next couple of years and make this entire writeup irrelevant? Given my track record, that’s likely as well. But if one of these guys mentioned here does end up toppling Kerr for a national title, Garrett will never hear the end of my bragging, and that makes it all worth it.

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