USATF Championship Preview

By: John Cusick

We’ve been well under way since early March when it comes to outdoor track, but this upcoming weekend marks the time of the year every American track and field athlete preps for. The USATF Outdoor Championships will be held in Des Moines, Iowa and while there may be no team implications, the bragging rights are just as strong of a motivator.

800

The 800 meter race is the first distance preliminary falling on June 21st. As of right now, we are still waiting on the actual heat sheets to be provided. There are currently 29 athletes that have run underneath the USATF standard of 1:47.50.

Leading that group is the current indoor and outdoor USA champion in Donovan Brazier. He’s entered with a 1:43.95 that came from London almost a year ago, but his best time on the year is 1:45.10 which he ran to win the indoor title. Brazier is a strong contender for the win this weekend after navigating through the last two championships with poise and composure.

Right behind Brazier is Penn State’s Isaiah Harris. Harris is coming off of a collegiate national title run which included out-kicking the collegiate record holder Michael Saruni. Harris improved upon his PR at the NCAA meet and is in the best shape of his life just in time for this weekend. He is one of the most consistent runners that the USA has seen in recent memory.

Erik Sowinski has the 3rd fastest time as he is entered with a 1:44.66 from last year in New York. Earlier this year in Hengelo, Sowinski ran 1:45.07 and then ran 1:45.80 five days later. Sowinski’s meet progression throughout the spring and into the summer indicates that he’ll be ready for the rounds of championship racing with a title in mind. The Olympic bronze medalist in Clayton Murphy accounts for the 9th best time on the qualified list right now, but Murphy is believed to be an immediate contender based on past performances. Murphy most recently competed in a 1500 at the Portland Track Festival where he threw down a nasty kick to take the win in 3:40.25. He hasn’t raced an 800 since May 12th of this year, but expect Murphy to use his experience to his advantage here.

Drew Windle will look to continue his success as he enters this weekend with the 5th best time at 1:45.52. Windle set a PR of 1:44.63 that he set last July and later placed 2nd at the World Indoor Championships earlier this March. He will look to solidify his name as the best 800 meter runner within the 50 states this weekend.

A curious name that sits at the bottom of the list is Boris Berian. Berian is the last qualified time on the list and has only raced officially twice this spring. His latest entry was a pacing duty at the Portland Track Festival. Berian won the US title and the World Indoor title in 2016 and should always be considered a threat. The question is, what kind of shape is Berian in?

We’ve only listed a few names above, but there are many other names that could be viable threat to winning the race. Jesse Garn has run 1:45.04 and is the 4th name on the list. Bryce Hoppel of Kansas was 4th at the NCAA Championships and has a 1:45.67 to his name. Other key collegians include Joseph White of Georgetown as well as the Indiana duo of Cooper Williams and Daniel Kuhn.

Predictions:

1. Clayton Murphy

2. Drew Windle

3. Isaiah Harris

1500

As we move towards the 1500, we have one of the deepest fields in recent memory. Names like Matt Centrowitz, Johnny Gregorek and Ben Blankenship have all made noise on the international scene and will be looking for their respective title this weekend.

Centrowitz leads the field with his time of 3:34.43. However, the question with Centro is whether or not he is healthy after failing to meet the expecatations of his Olympic title at the World Indoor Championships this past year. He has run a few races this year and looks to be fit, but we will have to see if he can make it through the rounds of championship racing.

Gregorek bursted onto the scene last summer when he ran his 3:35.00 solidifying him as another American that should have success on the world level. Gregorek was a part of the World Championships final that saw him finish 10th in the race. He will bring his talent, experience, and race tactics to Des Moines in his pursuit to become a national champion.

Robby Andrews is listed 3rd on this list and we all know that Andrews is never out of a race. With his devastating kick, Andrews could be the favorite entering the race. If he is in the right shape, he can win the race from the front or the back. His last-ditch effort to finish 3rd at the Olympic Trials is still fresh in my memory and reminds me to never leave Andrews’ name out of the contenders.

Ben Blankenship won the indoor title at USA’s earlier this winter and detailed that had he not won, all the training would have been worthless. We’d assume that he has the same mentality coming into the outdoor meet this weekend. Blankenship is always in competition for the top podium spot and is a racing tactician. His 3:35.29 is good enough for the 4th fastest American this season.

Craig Engels still seems to be new at racing professionally, or at least it feels that way, but he has put together some very solid races in the past few months which has made him viable competition for the weekend. The Oregon Project member has run under 3:36 this year and looks the best we’ve ever seen in his young career.

Other names that need to be considered include Colby Alexander, Kyle Merber, Cristian Soratos and David Ribich.

Predictions:

1. Ben Blankenship

2. Johnny Gregorek

3. Matthew Centrowitz

3000 Steeple

We will move on to the 3000 meter Steeplechase in our usual fashion and this may be the easiest to preview. Evan Jager is the clear favorite here has he comes into the field seven seconds ahead of Stanley Kebenei’s 8:08.30.

Jager has only run two times this outdoor season, one being a 5k and the other a steeple, but he has won this event every time dating back to 2012. If he wins this one, it will be seven straight titles and one of the greatest stretches in American distance running history (if it isn’t already).

Jager’s biggest challenger will be the aforementioned Kebenei who has a personal best of 8:08.30 which he set in Monaco earlier this year. Kebenei most recently raced at the Portland Track Festival where he ran 3:47.47 for a 1500. Prior to that, he was a DNF at the Pre Classic presumably to pacing duties. He finished 5th at the World Championships last year and has the potential to threaten the throne of Jager.

Andrew Bayer is next on the list with his 8:16.73. Bayer has two 1500s and two steeple races under his belt so far this season. Each race has gotten faster and we’ll be looking for that same progression this weekend. Bayer doesn’t have the same level of experience in terms of World Championship racing, but his collegiate days produced an individual national title. Expect Bayer to be in the mix.

Hillary Bor and Haron Lagat both should challenge for podium positions this upcoming weekend given that their training has progressed as well as their teammates. They’ve both only raced twice on the track this past season, so their level of fitness is somewhat unknown at this point. Bor has made an Olympic final so the experience is there. Lagat should make the final, but his championship racing skills may be lower than that of his competitors.

MJ Erb, Mason Ferlic, and Brian Barraza are three names that intrigue me this weekend. All three had success at the collegiate level. Their experience in championship racing is always a benefit when it comes to times like this. We expect them to make their presence known and shock the field a tiny bit.

Predictions:

1. Evan Jager

2. Hillary Bor

3. MJ Erb

5000

The 5000 meters might be the most exciting race of the weekend depending on how it plays out. With names like Paul Chelimo, Hassan Mead and Eric Jenkins leading the way, we know that we have three athletes who could win this race no matter the pace.

Chelimo looks to be the favorite on paper. We know that Chelimo is capable of running with some of the greatest athletes in the world and he’s proven his toughness on the biggest stages (2nd at the Olympics and 3rd at the most recent World Championships). His seed time of 13:08.62 is a few second off of his PR, but it seems inevitable that Chelimo will take home his second straight national title.

Mead is entered with a seed time of 13:11.20 which he ran last year in Belgium. So far this year, he has only officially raced two times, while DNFing his other two races. In the races he ran, Mead ran 3:37 and 8:24 (for two miles), respectively. Mead is capable of running 13:04 indicating that he can run with just about anyone from American soil. We’re not sure if the DNF’s from Mead are from pacing duties or if there is a nagging injury that is keeping him from crossing the finish line.

Jenkins is also declared in the 1500m which means that he and Alberto Salazar both agree that he is in shape to run both and run both well. I believe that Jenkins will have more success in this race because he is more familiar with this distance when it comes to championship racing. Jenkins is qualified with a seed time of 13:15.74 and is certainly capable of more than that when you consider that his PR is 13:07 and some change. That being said, Jenkins will have to race at least twice with preliminaries of the 1500 happening beforehand. If he were to make the final, he’d be racing twice before his specialty event.

Riley Masters and Ryan Hill are the last two athletes underneath the 13:20 barrier. Although that doesn’t really hold any significance here, I think it separates them from the rest of the field as the times start to fall off after them. Masters has raced twice this outdoor season and has run 3:58 for a mile and 13:16 from Payton Jordan earlier this year. Masters looks to be in good shape and is expected to finish on the podium. Hill has raced three times so far this year. Those include two 1500s (one where he ran 3:39) and then a two mile at the Pre Classic where he ran 8:22. Hill has always had the wheels when it comes down to the end of a race and that should be the case here. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Hill kicking down the homestretch with Chelimo when it really matters.

There are some very talented runners who will be joining the field here that include the likes of Thomas Curtin, Dillon Maggard, Joe Klecker, Trevor Dunbar and Grant Fisher. Collegiate runners coming off of nationals are always interesting as it’s usually the end of a season and bouncing back after two hard months of competing can take its toll. That being said, we wouldn’t be surprised to see one of these guys make a hard move and try and take the leader’s legs away from them before it’s too late.

Predictions:

1. Paul Chelimo

2. Ryan Hill

3. Eric Jenkins

10,000

Our last race to preview, which happens to always be first when it comes to championships, is the 10,000 meters. The big names among those who are listed include Shadrack Kipchirchir, Garrett Heath, and Lopez Lomong.

Kipchirchir holds almost a 50 second lead over Heath when it comes to seed times. Kipchirchir was DQed during the World Indoors earlier this year and while winning a USA title won’t eliminate the hard feelings from that, it could certainly could alleviate some of the frustration. Kipchirchir looks to be in shape after he ran 27:39 at Payton Jordan and then followed it up with an 8:28 two mile at the Pre Classic. He is still the favorite in this race, but he can certainly be beaten.

Heath is the dark horse in this competition despite being seeded 2nd. Heath knocked off Mo Farah a few years back in a race that everyone thought was Farah’s to win with ease. Heath has a ton of experience when it comes to racing and despite his lack of experience in the 10k, I believe that he has a chance to defeat his competitors with some top-notch racing tactics. The question is whether or not Kipchirchir will allow that to happen.

We all know Lopez Lomong and what he means to American distance running. His range is nothing short of amazing, but as he ages, he’s moved to the 10k where his PR is “only” 28:21. When we compare that to the other event PRs, it feels a tad slow. What he lacks in time, is made up in his experience. Lomong is one of the most experienced racers in the world and I think that gives him a slight advantage over his competitors. Again, it’s still yet to be known what will happen during this race, but if it stays tactical Lomong will be in the hunt.

Others that should be in the hunt for a podium spot are Benjamin Bruce, Elkanah Kibet, and Matthew McClintock. These three are the others under the 28:30 barrier which should make this race interesting for most of the 25 laps.

Other names worth watching are Collin Bennie, Reed Fischer, Nicholas Kipruto, and Zach Panning.

Predictions:

1. Shadrack Kipchirchir

2. Garrett Heath

3. Lopez Lomong