TSR's "If Everything Was Normal" D3 XC Top 10 Teams (Women): #5-1

Written by Hannah Thorn, Brett Haffner and Kevin Fischer

Analysis involving eligibility is based off of data from TFRRS.

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5. Carleton Knights

The Knights from Carleton had a great season last year which culminated in a 5th place team finish at the National Championships over regional rival Wartburg. The Central region champs also won the MIAC title in impressive fashion, scoring only 25 points. They would have looked to finish in the top five at the national meet once again this year, but would have had to make some adjustments.

The Knights were led by low-sticks Amanda Mosborg (now a senior) and Clara Mayfield (now a sophomore) last fall and that likely would have stayed the same in 2020.

Mosborg has been a consistent top talent in D3 as she has never finished lower than 66th at the national meet. She had a great year in 2019, running a 6k PR of 21:27 at the Connecticut College XC Invitational. This started a trend of very successful meets for Mosborg as she went on to win the MIAC conference meet, placed 3rd in the Central region and then finished 13th in Louisville.

Mosborg was always closely followed by sophomore Clara Mayfield. She also earned a new 6k PR at the Connecticut College XC Invitational (running 21:34) and later placed 3rd at the MIAC conference meet, 5th in the Central region and ended her 2019 season with a 30th place finish at Nationals.

That was a very impressive season for someone who was only a freshman at the time, leading us to believe that Mayfield will only get faster as time goes on. Things are looking good already given what we saw from her this past winter as she was ranked at NCAA #9 on the national performance list for the 5000 meters, running 17:16.

The remainder of the returning top seven for Carleton is senior Emma Greenlee and sophomore Sophia Maag. Unfortunately, Carleton loses Helen Schuda, Marietta Geist and Ruthie Body to graduation. That could be a problem for Carleton if they cannot find a reliable fifth scorer. However, given their recent history success, we think that they can.

Last year, there was (on average) a one minute gap between their seventh and ninth runners. That could be an issue as their eighth runner from last year has also graduated.

Luckily, they still have sophomore Lillian Horne who looks to be the next-best returning runner and we think that she can make the necessary improvements for Carleton in order to stop them from racking up excessive points on their backend.

Her development paired with the lethal front-running of this squad should keep the Knights as one of the more competitive teams in Division III whenever competition returns.

4. Williams Ephs

The Ephs took some time to get into the swing of things during the 2019 regular season. However, once they got going, they were difficult to stop.

They hosted the Purple Valley Invite in September where they lost to Tufts. Three weeks later, they fell to MIT at the Connecticut College Invitational by a margin of 28 points.

But things began to turn around for this group in the postseason as they established themselves as an elite force in Division III, avenging both losses multiple times and ultimately finishing 4th at the National Championships.

Although they graduate three of their runners from last year's national meet lineup, Williams should remain as one of the better teams in the country, in large part due to the elite trio of Eva Borton (who was only a freshman in 2019), Sarah Tully and Briana Bourne. They are also impressively deep and have the capability to plug the scoring gaps left behind by the departure of Anna Passanante and other seniors.

All the Ephs need is for one or two athletes to take a step forward. Grace Dailey, who did not compete at Nationals in 2019 (but finished 114th in 2018) has also run a mile PR of 5:01 and would have likely been one of those athletes to emerge as a new scorer.

In an unchanged season, Williams would have been a contender for a podium spot in Terre Haute, and perhaps even a dark horse for a national title if everything went their way.

3. Wartburg Knights

The Knights are another team that, like Carleton, are relying on a great senior/sophomore duo to lead their squad. Senior Carina Collet and sophomore Aubrie Fisher spent all of last season leading Wartburg to a handful of top five team finishes.

The Knights won the American Rivers title and finished only two points behind Carleton at the Central Regional Championships. They just missed out on the podium at the national meet, finishing 6th overall.

The good news for Wartburg is that they return their entire top seven from last year. That should help them make a run at the podium whenever the national meet returns.

The clear leader of the Knights is Carina Collet. She added her fourth All-American honor to her resume last November when she finished 11th in Louisville. She is a model of consistency, almost never having an off day. She was 3rd at the Dan Hutson Invitational and the Kollege Town Invitational, and later won the American Rivers Conference Championships before finishing 2nd at the Central Regional Championships. Having your top runner be a consistent low-stick will continue to be a huge advantage for the Wartburg women.

Sophomore Aubrie Fisher creates a great 1-2 punch alongside Collet. She had a strong debut season with an impressive 4th place finish at the Central regional meet last year. However, Fisher just missed out on the top-40 at the national meet last fall, finishing 42nd overall.

Even so, that's not a bad result for a freshman at their first national meet. Hopefully, with more experience, she can move up and offer extra, Collet-like firepower whenever competition returns.

The other returners are seniors Janelle Baeskens and Cassidy Christopher as well as juniors Trinity Borland, Riley Mayer and Moriah Morter. All of these women raced at the national meet last year, so they have the experience of competing in high-pressure situations.

However, one (relatively minor) concern is that their gap in Louisville last fall between their fifth and sixth runners was 27 seconds. If one runner has an off day or doesn’t finish, we could see some excessive scoring from the Wartburg women at the backend of their lineup.

2. Johns Hopkins Blue Jays

Johns Hopkins has had one of the best women’s programs in recent years. They have won six team titles in the last eight years, including a three-peat from 2012 to 2014. In addition to that, they have also won 12-straight Centennial conference titles and 12-straight Mideast regional title.

Given their history of dominance, it has truthfully been easier to say they will land on the podium at the National Championships than to predict the order of their top seven.

This year, the Blue Jays are left with a big gap in their lineup after losing an outstanding senior class. Three of their top four runners in Louisville last fall were seniors. All-Americans Rebecca Grusby, Samy Levy and Caelyn Reilly have all run out of eligibility. They also lost Kristin Meek who was 41st at Nationals last year.

For most teams, that would immediately erase them from national title contention...but this is Johns Hopkins we're talking about.

They return four-time All-American Ariel Keklak who finished 23rd at the National Championships last year as well as Therese Olshanski.

Olshanski had an off day last year at NCAA's, finishing 123rd overall and almost two minutes slower than her PR of 21:09. She finished as Johns Hopkins’ seven runner in Louisville.

Luckily, we know that she is far better than that result and on a regular day when she's at her best, she actually fills in a lot of the much-needed scoring potency that was left behind by graduating seniors. That's important to remember when talking about the scoring capabilities of this team. They may lose a lot, but having Olshanski run her best at the national meet means that their scoring losses aren't quite as bad as they seem.

It wouldn’t be a Johns Hopkins team if they didn’t have (what seems like) an endless amount of women who can step up to the plate. This year, that includes junior Arielle Summitt and sophomores Katharine Priu, Stephanie Brown and Callie Jones.

Katharine Priu was especially impressive last year as a freshman. In her first season of collegiate competition, she ran a 6k PR of 21:31 at the Mideast regional meet where she finished 2nd overall. Her other impressive results include finishing 9th at the Centennial Conference Championships and a 76th place finish at Nationals. She only ran one indoor race, and that was in December, so hopefully she would have been healthy enough to race this year.

We are sure that the women listed above, plus the new freshmen talent that Johns Hopkins always seems to bring in, would have been ready to step up to the task of producing yet another top four finish for the Blue Jays.

1. Washington University Bears

Wash. U. was on a tear last season, winning the Dan Hutson Invitational, the Kollege Town Invitational, the UAA Championships and the Midwest Regional Championships, all with relative ease.

They were definitely a strong favorite to win the team title at Nationals, but unfortunately for them, they finished just short of that goal, placing 2nd overall to Johns Hopkins by 13 points.

A sore spot for the Bears is that their typical third/fourth runner (Megan Grimscheid) was a DNF in Louisville, so we know that this team was capable of winning a national title last year. They will look to avenge that loss whenever competition returns as they will want another chance to stand atop of the podium.

That, however, won’t be an easy task for Wash. U. as they lose their 1-2 duo of Paige Lawler and Sophie Watterson. Both Lawler and Watterson were in the top-20 at Nationals last year.

That firepower will be difficult to replace, but it's important to remember a few things...

• Wash. U. is a historically successful team.

• One of their top scorers from last year didn't finish her race at Nationals.

• They return everyone else from their 2019 lineup.

• Johns Hopkins also loses their top two runners.

So while it may seem a bit bold to place the Bears at our TSR #1 spot, we have to recognize that other top-ranked teams are also losing a handful of top runners from last fall. In a year where everything was normal, depth, experience and development would have been key factors in how teams fared at the national level.

This year, the Bears were expected to be led by another pair of seniors in Katie Snodgrass and Megan Grimscheid. Those two women often swapped places as the Bear’s third and fourth runners last year as Snodgrass seemed to have the edge as the season progressed, finishing 7th at the Midwest regional meet to Girmscheid’s 13th place finish.

She also got the advantage at Nationals, finishing within sniffing distance of All-American honors, placing 45th overall. Those two will look to move up when they next toe the line after having strong track seasons where they recorded new personal bests in the 3k and 5k. Snodgrass ran 10:24 (3k) and 17:25 (5k) while Grimscheid ran 10:13 (3k) and 17:32 (5k).

They will be joined by sophomore Ella Behrens, juniors Sophie Young, Gabby Mcginn and Emma Walter as well as senior Zarya de Souza.

Ella Behrens had a great freshmen year, finishing 13th at the UAA Championships, 15th at the Midwest regional meet and then 62nd at the NCAA Championships. Her 6k PR of 22:22 could easily go down this year as coach Jeff Stiles continuously has women develop into All-Americans.

Another advantage that Wash. U. has is their depth. They currently have 34 women on their roster, giving them endless lineup possibilities and the potential for multiple breakout scorers.

Year after year, the Bears remain in contention to podium at Nationals and this year would have been no different if there had been a national meet.