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TSR's 2024 Preseason D3 XC Top 10 Team Rankings (Men): #2 Wartburg Knights
- Gavin Struve
- Sep 12, 2024
- 7 min read
NOTE: Earlier this summer, The Stride Report reached out to nearly every team that was considered for a possible ranking this summer. While we did receive numerous responses and great clarity, we did not get a 100% response rate. On certain occasions, we are referencing TFFRS in order to talk about returners and athletes who are out of eligibility.
The Wartburg men entered last fall with high expectations, sitting at TSR #1. They ultimately finished off of the podium entirely, although a second consecutive top-five finish at the cross country national meet was a silver lining.
It says here that they may now be in line for something closer to their national meet runner-up finish from 2022. However, the program's first national title is hardly out of the question in a wide-open year in the Division Three men's cross country landscape.
We say that even as the Knights lose their low-stick superstar, nine-time All-American Christopher Collet, and are set to field a lead scorer who wasn't even a varsity runner last fall. Allow us to explain.
* * *
We got our first decent look at the much-ballyhooed Wartburg men last fall at their home meet, the Dan Huston Invitational. As expected, focal star Christopher Collet took the win. His teammates, Shane Erb and Jack Kinzer, finished 3rd and 4th, respectively, behind only Collet and his fellow superstar, Spencer Moon.
Jacob Green (8th place) didn't open the season with the low-stick form that he has flashed before, but he and Lance Sobaski (13th) did enough for the Knights to comfortably take down a smorgasbord of in-state teams (there are quietly several solid squads in the Hawkeye State).
The Wartburg men knew that traveling one state over to compete at the Augustana Interregional Invitational would give a far better indication of how viable of a title contender they'd be in 2023. And it was there where they began to show some cracks in their facade.
Collet couldn't hang with other contenders' lead scorers (or second scorers), but Sobaski (the team's fifth scorer one meet prior) looked like a fringe low-stick by placing 17th. Their teammates closed out the scoring relatively quickly from there, with Erb (20th), Kinzer (25th) and Sam Schmitz (27th) complemented by the insurance offered by Green (32nd) and Eli Larson (34th).
That Augustana Interregional Invitational came early in the season, but it showed that the Knights needed to be better if they wanted to contend for a national title or a podium finish. Aside from their backend scorers, their lineup was uncompetitive with meet champion North Central and runner-up UW-Whitewater.
Wartburg predictably dominated the American Rivers Conference XC Championships, as Collet bounced back to again defeat Moon as well as a top-10 cross country All-American in Caleb Silver. Kinzer and Schmitz joined Collet in the top-five at the conference meet, while Green and Erb joined them in the top-10 to round out their five-man lineup.
It was a bit inauspicious that Wartburg again finished behind North Central at the Midwest Regional XC Championships. Collet won his third race in four tries, and the Knights fit five runners in the top-20 and seven in the top-25, although they didn't have the front-end firepower to match the Cardinals.
For better or worse, Wartburg's lineup construction didn't change at the 2023 NCAA XC Championships. Collet (who finished 12th) left a tiny bit to be desired compared to his other national meet performances, but was still an incredibly potent leading man.
However, he proved to be the Knights' only All-American. However, Schmitz (48th), Green (51st) and Kinzer (61st) weren't too far away. There was a sizable drop-off from there to Isaiah Hammerand, who closed out the lineup in 130th place.
Hammerand actually ran quite well in his first NCAA Championship appearance, but the Knights needed Sobaski or Erb to be scorers if they wanted to reach the podium. They ultimately finished in 5th place, a drop down from their national meet runner-up finish a year prior.
* * *
As we got out of the way earlier, Christopher Collet is gone after years of serving as a low-stick star for this team. That's the bad news. The good news for the Knights is that they return every other member of their 2023 varsity lineup.
Now, you're probably thinking to yourself, "That's great, but wasn't there a considerable gap from Collet to the rest of the team?" And while that would be true, Wartburg has an opportunity to implement someone who could be a facsimile of Collet as a lead scorer.
We are, of course, talking about Tyler Schermerhorn, someone who is listed at TSR #10 in our preseason individual rankings. Schermerhorn raced for the Knights last fall, ending his season as their sixth man (placing 11th) at the ARC XC Championships.
Since then, we've seen Schermerhorn reach an entirely different level. He showed signs of stardom in the winter, placing 12th over 5000 meters at the indoor national meet. It was the spring season, however, that made us reassess what kind of runner we think Schermerhorn can be.
The rising Wartburg star opened up his spring campaign with 29:24 (10k) and 13:57 (5k) PRs, the latter representing a 17-second personal best even from what he ran a month earlier. He then thrived under pressure at the outdoor national meet, finishing runner-up over 10,000 meters and 12th in the 5k.
We're taking a bit of a leap of faith here in projecting Schermerhorn as a top-10 individual given that he has yet to race at a cross country national meet. But after he burst onto the scene as a singular talent during the early portions of 2024, it's hard to conceive of someone who was so accomplished in recent months not translating that fitness into top-half All-American status this fall.
Given that he thrived most in the aerobic-centric 10k, one may make a fringe argument that he won't be as good over 8000 meters on the grass. However, Schermerhorn was also quite impressive over 5000 meters on the track, so the 8k should be close to his sweet spot.
Then there's Jacob Green, who we have placed at TSR #14 in our preseason individual rankings. He didn't display that form last fall, but he has a propensity for peaking in the postseason.
Green finished 22nd at the 2022 NCAA XC Championships and most recently was 5th over 10,000 meters at the 2024 outdoor national meet. He fared better there than he did in that event at the 2023 outdoor national meet (when he was 17th). In fact, that recent 10k effort was his best performance at any national meet, and he ran a 5k PR in April. Any sentiment that he fell off last fall would be unfounded.
In the coming months, we think we'll see something closer to the 2022 version of Green -- who was nearly a top-half All-American then -- and probably even an improved version given that he was quite similar during the 2022 and 2023 regular seasons and just flashed further potential on the track.
* * *
Sam Schmitz has been one of the more reliable members of Wartburg's varsity contingent in recent years, finishing top-50 at the past two cross country national meets. After running several PRs on the track earlier this year, is this the season he finally makes the small leap from top-50 individual to All-American?
Jack Kinzer joins Schmitz as an "Honorable Mention" name outside of our top-20 preseason individual rankings (which puts them in the 30 to 40 range). He seemed to make a considerable jump during the 2023-24 academic year, cutting his cross country national meet placement in half and qualifying for the indoor national meet over 3000 meters as an individual.
Then there's Isaiah Hammerand, who was Wartburg's fifth scorer at the 2023 NCAA XC Championships and ran competitive PRs in his rookie track campaign. At the very least, we only see him improving in 2024 given the benefits of having a year of experience. However, it's challenging to know what kind of impact that one year of natural progression will look like as far as results are concerned.
Lance Sobaski has twice finished top-155 at the NCAA XC Championships. He wasn't as good in the steeplechase this past spring after finishing as the NCAA bronze medalist in that event in 2023, but he recently ran 3k and 5k PRs, which some may argue are events that have a more direct correlation to cross country fitness. He's a veteran contributor with a solid floor of success if nothing else.
Shane Erb was 20th at the Augustana Interregional Invitational, but struggled at the 2023 cross country national meet. With solid recent PRs of 3:49 (1500) and 14:31 (5k), he's another experienced option. Don't forget, he was the 20th place finisher at the Augustana Interregional Invitational last fall, a result that, if consistently replicated, suggests that he could be a fringe lead scorer this fall.
Eli Larson has yet to compete at any NCAA Championship, but could break into the varsity lineup after making appearances last fall and running 14:35 (5k) and 30:46 (10k) this past April. If he's able to make another leap up in his fitness, then he'll be a sneaky-good name.
The last name who we'll mention on Wartburg's extensive roster is Connor Lancial. He was a cross country All-American in 2022, but was far from that form in the fall of 2023. Given that he wasn't near his PRs on the track this past spring either, Lancial probably won't be able to break into this deep varsity lineup.
Even so, he's yet another veteran option. And if Lancial does return to top form in the coming months, then he'll only bolster Wartburg's national title chances. Simply put, he can only make this team better compared to last year.
* * *
Even in Collet's absence, we think that Wartburg will have more firepower in the front and middle portions of their lineup in 2024. That being said, they need a stronger fifth scorer to emerge if they want to be in the national title mix.
This is one of the largest rosters in the nation, so if Hammerand, Sobaski, Erb, Larson or Lancial aren't up to the task (we think at least one of them will be), then there may be another adequate backend lineup piece or two in the reserves for Coach Ryan Chapman to choose from.
Adding Schermerhorn to this horde of varsity returners makes the Knights feel like a lock to return to the podium after a one-year absence. Although, we felt that way about this team entering the 2023 season as well.
The fact that none of these men were All-Americans last fall -- and that we need to see a fifth scorer prove they can quickly close the gap -- gives us enough pause to abstain from projecting Wartburg to win their first-ever cross country national title...for now.
