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TSR's 2024 Preseason D1 XC Top 25 Team Rankings (Women): #3 NC State Wolfpack
- Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
- Aug 31, 2024
- 10 min read
NOTE: Earlier this summer, The Stride Report reached out to nearly every team that was considered for a possible ranking this summer. While we did receive numerous responses and great clarity, we did not get a 100% response rate. On certain occasions, we are referencing TFFRS in order to talk about returners and athletes who are out of eligibility.
It's the start of a new era in Raleigh, North Carolina.
The NC State women, who are coming off of their third-straight national team title, have been the definition of "elite" over the last few years. They have established themselves as a historical powerhouse, Laurie Henes has become one of the greatest NCAA cross country coaches of all-time and the program has produced numerous upper-echelon stars along the way.
But this year, the narrative surrounding NC State is different. The women who once provided the Wolfpack with their core identity are gone and the veteran steadiness that was oh-so reliable is now centered around younger distance talents.
And their opponents? Well, they haven't become worse, that's for sure.
However, it would be wrong to say that the NC State women have fallen out of contention for the national title. We see them as one of three teams who could realistically win gold come November.
Even so, the fall of 2024 may be Coach Laurie Henes' most challenging title defense yet.
* * *
The NC State women began their 2023 fall campaign at the Joe Piane Invitational, a meet which would feature an eventual podium squad (Notre Dame) and an eventual top-10 national meet team (Alabama).
But regardless of the competition, the Wolfpack thrived despite not fielding star-caliber talents such as Katelyn Tuohy and Amaris Tyynismaa.
Kelsey Chmiel secured a fantastic runner-up finish, providing unsurprisingly great scoring potency. Leah Stephens, however, stunned everyone with a monster 4th place finish. The true freshman had a fantastic prep career, but her ability to immediately produce a low-stick result was not at all expected.
Redshirt freshman Grace Hartman (9th) delivered on the potential that we figured she had, Gionna Quarzo (14th) emerged as a reliable backend scorer and Jenna Schulz (15th) had one of the better races of her career.
When all was said and done, the NC State women walked away from South Bend, Indiana with a nine-point win despite not having two star All-Americans. Sam Bush, however, notably faded to 30th place in that race, making her a name to monitor as the season went on.
The Nuttycombe Invite, of course, would provide a far greater challenge.
Going into the meet, the NC State women were favored...probably. However, Northern Arizona, after their dominant performance at the Virginia Invitational, was ready to play spoiler.
Katelyn Tuohy (2nd) returned to action and, despite not winning, still offered an elite low-stick result while Chmiel (3rd) did the same. Meanwhile, Leah Stephens (14th) validated her Joe Piane performance with an arguably stronger result! Through three runners, the Wolfpack's scoring potency looked overwhelmingly strong.
Hartman (26th) would provide a great performance in her own right. But while Hannah Gapes (51st) did run well, the NC State women fell victim to their backend gaps. With Tyynismaa not yet racing and Sam Bush recording a DNF result, the overall scoring of this group couldn't fend off an incredible performance from the Northern Arizona women who put FIVE runners in the top-20!
In the end, NC State would settle for a runner-up result, 43 points off of NAU.
And suddenly, the favorites for the national title were no longer the Wolfpack women.
The ACC XC Championships was the next meet on tap for NC State, a meet that they were expected to dominate...and did.
Tuohy secured the win while Chmiel snagged bronze. Stephens (8th) was once again outstanding, Sam Bush (11th) began her return to form and and Quarzo (14th) came through with a very strong backend effort that was better than some people may have realized.
NC State won their conference title with ease, but Amaris Tyynismaa still did not cross the line. She did, however, start the race before producing a DNF with roughly 1000 meters to go.
After cruising through the Southeast regional meet, the NCAA XC Championships lied ahead.
Northern Arizona looked borderline unstoppable going into Charlottesville, Virginia. Their blend of veteran firepower and unreal depth made them the perfect team in a field that was as large as the national meet.
And for NC State, there was bad news.
A lot of bad news.
Kelsey Chmiel, the second elite-caliber low-stick on NC State's roster, had sustained an injury earlier in the week and was unable to run. And Katelyn Tuohy? Well, she turned out to be ill. With Sam Bush not at 100% and Tyynismaa yet to finish a race that season, it felt like NCAA gold should have been handed to the NAU women before the race even began.
But then the unthinkable happened.
Tuohy, despite being sick, came through with a clutch 5th place finish. However, the biggest heroes for NC State were Amaris Tyynismaa (25th) and Sam Bush (28th). Those two women came through with the two most clutch All-American performances in recent memory despite their struggles earlier in the season.
That tremendous boost in firepower was complemented by very respectable efforts from Leah Stephens (43rd) and Grace Hartman (63rd). And Northern Arizona? Well, their lineup didn't look quite as potent as we thought it would.
When the dust settled and the scores were tallied, a collective gasp could be heard around the country.
NC State: 123.
Northern Arizona: 124.
The Wolfpack women had won the national title by a singular point.
* * *
There is no hiding the fact that this year's NC State cross country team is going to look very different from the group that was fielded last year. But given the high-profile nature of this program, none of their departures should come as a surprise.
Katelyn Tuohy is gone.
Kelsey Chmiel is gone.
Amaris Tyynismaa is gone.
Sam Bush is gone.
For pretty much any team not named NC State, those kinds of scoring losses would be devastating. In that scenario, almost every NCAA program would not only fall out of the podium discussion, but very realistically drop out of the top-10 as well.
Of course, the Wolfpack women aren't just any other team.
Coach Laurie Henes has continued to be a phenomenal recruiter. In turn, she has ensured that NC State still has a strong scoring foundation moving forward. Last year's group of youngsters ran remarkably well, top-tier recruits have joined the team, a key transfer has entered the program and a few returners have already proven to be valuable scorers.
And when you piece all of that together, you get a program that is still more than capable of putting themselves on the podium this fall. The only question is, can they snag the legendary four-peat?
Grace Hartman and Leah Stephens are likely going to be NC State's two focal low-sticks this fall as long as both of these ladies are healthy. Both rising stars were fantastic scorers for this team last fall, especially Stephens, and could see further growth over the next few months.
Hartman is someone who truly elevated her fitness on the indoor and outdoor ovals. Not only did she run head-turning personal bests of 15:28 (5k) and 32:28 (10k), but she also earned two 8th place All-American finishes as well.
We're fairly confident that Hartman will be better this fall than she was last year. Her times suggest that she is more or less an All-American lock and she has seemingly had no issues with competing on the national stage.
Finishes of 9th at the Joe Piane Invitational, 26th at the Nuttycombe Invite, 19th at the ACC XC Championships and 63rd at the NCAA XC Championships were solid, but at her best, we feel that she can be a top-half All-American on the grass.
We then come to Stephens, a rising sophomore who was so much better last fall than some people realize. Sure, her 43rd place finish at the national meet wasn't an All-American result, but that was arguably her "worst" race of the season.
It's one thing to post the results that Stephens did as a rookie, but her ability to be as consistent as she was deserves significant praise.
The only challenge, however, is that Stephens didn't race during the winter months and then didn't compete after the Penn Relays (where she won the 10k) this past spring. That lack of racing isn't the greatest sign, but it's hard to imagine that Stephens won't be ready for the cross country season given how much time she has had.
We finally come to Fiona Smith, someone who was not with NC State this time last year.
Smith was an all-time great at the D3 level, running times of 9:23 (3k), 15:50 (5k) and 32:57 (10k). She won six national titles (one of which came in cross country), currently holds the D3 indoor 5k record and has amassed a jaw-dropping total of 16 All-American honors across all three seasons of competition.
Yes, you read that right.
16.
It's admittedly hard to properly gauge how someone of Smith's caliber will translate her talent to the Division One level. Sure, Alex Phillip had a fantastic fall campaign in 2023 after making a move to UNC, but that is just one example.
In theory, Smith should be an All-American threat. Maybe not a favorite, but we would not be surprised if she cracked the top-40 at the NCAA XC Championships. And if her upside ends up being far greater than we realize, then she could very easily be this year's version of Alex Phillip on the women's side of the NCAA.
* * *
Piecing together the remaining half of this lineup is where things become a bit trickier. While there is certainly no shortage of talent on this roster, figuring out who will emerge as a potent scorer is still unclear.
Angelina Napoleon is someone who we're fairly high on. She didn't race last fall, but the subtly great progress that she made during the winter and spring months left us very encouraged about her future.
Armed with a new steeplechase personal best of 9:54, this redshirt rookie could absolutely be a crucial scorer this fall. Of course, it's not entirely clear how impactful a redshirt rookie, whose main success is centered around the steeplechase, will be on the grass.
Even so, a 9:54 steeplechaser should be a more-than-serviceable fourth or fifth scorer for a team that is trying to stay on the podium. But to defend their national title? Well, Napoleon will likely need to be in the All-American discussion in order for that to happen.
Brooke Rauber is a really interesting name. At her best, we think she'll be a crucial scorer who offers plenty of stability and reliability. In fact, she has already proven that she can do all of that, placing 10th at the 2022 ACC XC Championships and 90th at the 2022 NCAA XC Championships.
Unfortunately, Rauber didn't race from April of 2023 until April of 2024. And when did race this past spring, the two results that she posted over 1500 meters were admittedly not great.
The veteran from New York and the next name who we'll mention are probably the biggest x-factors on this team when it comes to the Wolfpack's chances of reaching the podium.
If Rauber comes into this season at her peak 2022 form, then NC State's probability of being a top-four team in November likely rises. If not, then NC State can still get on the podium, but it will certainly be more challenging.
Many of us at The Stride Report really like Gionna Quarzo. We have always felt that she's been very underrated and has often been lost in the ocean of talent that is NC State's roster.
Quarzo is someone who has always been super reliable when called upon. Last fall, Quarzo was 14th at both the Joe Piane Invite and the ACC XC Championships. In the fall of 2022, she was 48th at the Nuttycombe Invite and 16th at the ACC XC Championships. Before that, she had qualified for the outdoor national meet in the 10k. Since then, she has run personal bests of 15:51 (5k) and 33:02 (10k).
The fall of 2024 feels like Quarzo's time to shine. This is her opportunity to emerge as crucial scorer who this team can consistently lean on in their quest to return to the podium. We don't know what her ceiling is, but her floor is seemingly super high.
Let's not forget about Hannah Gapes and Jenna Schultz, either.
Schultz was part of the legendary recruiting class which was headlined by Katelyn Tuohy. And despite not emerging as a superstar, she has still provided great value. A 16:09 (5k) PR pairs very well with a 15th place finish at the Joe Piane Invite and a 91st place result at the Nuttycombe Invite.
Gapes, meanwhile, boasts a sneaky-good 15:58 (5k) PR after a quietly great cross country season where she placed 51st at the Nuttycombe Invite and 73rd at the NCAA XC Championships. Despite some inconsistency, the best version of Gapes is absolutely a scorer. And depending on the scenario, she could even rise to be the team's third scorer!
After Gapes and Schultz, there is a large mass of young stars who hold tons of raw talent and plenty of upside. If the Wolfpack are going to have any chance at defending their national title (again), then they'll need at least one of underclassmen to have a monster season in the same way that Leah Stephens did in 2023.
Among the true freshmen, women such as Bethany Michalak (a two-time top-three finisher at NXN), Xela Martinez (Spanish 3k runner who has a 9:14 PR) and Ellie Shea (15:46 PR over 5k as a high schooler) are the most likely to emerge as stars.
Yes, Shea's resume is stacked, although some of her performances have been slightly quieter (although still very strong) over the last year of racing.
Others such as Jolena Quarzo and Olivia Haas could also find their way into NC State's lineup at some point this fall. Those two women are key developmental names who the team will likely lean on in future seasons.
* * *
In terms of structure, you won't find too many lineups more balanced than what the Wolfpack women have this fall. They have multiple low-stick standouts, numerous women who they can point to as stable middle-lineup scorers and tons of depth which also features plenty of upside.
Sure, on paper, NC State isn't the best team in the country...but they're not far off, either.
Truthfully, if the Wolfpack women had not won the national title last fall in the dramatic fashion that they did, then I'm not entirely sure if we would be saying that they could still win gold in 2024.
Make no mistake, the odds are still stacked against NC State as they pursue a four-peat. However, if there is any NCAA team capable of overcoming any and all challenges that await them, it's the women of Raleigh, North Carolina.
