TSR's 2024 D2 XC Top 10 Team Rankings (Women): Update #3

TSR Collaboration
Nov 11, 2024
7 min read

Written by Marissa Kuik and Gavin Struve

Edits & additional commentary via Gavin Struve and Garrett Zatlin

NOTE: These rankings are based on how a team fared throughout the entirety of a season, not just how they ran at a singular meet or (eventually) at the 2024 NCAA XC Championships. Click here to learn more about our ranking criteria (which was published in 2023).

KEY

(Unranked):

Was not ranked in our last update.

(#/#):

First number indicates how much the team has moved in the rankings.

The second number indicates where the team was ranked in our last update.

10. Lee (Tenn.) Flames (Unranked)

A near-perfect score at the South Regional XC Championships was enough for us to finally give the nod to Lee (Tenn.) in our top-10 team rankings. We never doubted this team's penchant to, as ever, be nationally competitive.

However, we largely haven't seen them race head-to-head against top-end Division Two teams. That's in large part because the Flames didn't field their varsity lineup at the UAH Chargers XC Invitational.

That's not to say they're entirely untested. After all, they finished 8th against a slew of Division One programs -- and top-tier D2 programs like West Texas A&M and UC-Colorado Springs -- at the Louisville Classic.

At any rate, tallying a mere 18 points at the regional stage after producing a perfect score at the Gulf South Conference XC Championships showed that the women of Lee (Tenn.) should be competitive in the postseason with the teams in this range of our rankings.

9. Augustana (SD) Vikings (-4 / 5)

The Augustana (SD) women haven't necessarily done anything wrong since our last rankings update. In fact, they have kept on winning, cruising to the Central Regional XC Championship title.

However, the continued absence of two key projected scorers leaves us skeptical about the Vikings' ability to live up to the preseason podium expectations that we had for them.

We weren't too concerned when they placed 4th at the Lewis XC Crossover, given that they were missing Aubrey Surage (who raced earlier this season) and Amanda Overgauuw (who was entered in two races but has not competed). However, a few meets later, a lineup without those two women appears to be the new norm rather than an exception.

That's a somewhat painful reality to confront for a team that could use more up-front scoring power, particularly because Surage was their lone All-American last year, in a year with a relatively wide-open podium picture.

Augustana (SD) deserves some praise for handily winning conference and regional titles as currently constructed. It feels like they have a relatively narrow range of outcomes, on the edges of the top-10, for the upcoming national meet.

8. Western Colorado Mountaineers (+1 / 9)

In a similar vein to Augustana (SD), Western Colorado seemingly has to reassess their postseason expectations given that they're without their low-stick star.

For the Mountaineers, that's Allison Beasley, a top-10 finisher at last year's cross country national meet who's yet to race this fall (although Beasley's apparent redshirt may have been a decision made before the season).

The good news for Western Colorado is that they still have a reserve of star talent, led by conference runner-up Peyton Weiss and multi-time All-American Leah Taylor. They were able to carry their 4th-place finish from the RMAC XC Championships over the South Central regional meet, beating West Texas A&M and RMAC runner-up CSU-Pueblo.

The Mountaineers are no longer favored to repeat as a podium team, but having three All-American favorites (Weiss, Taylor and Lauren Willson) gives them an awfully high floor.

7. Lewis Flyers (+1 / 8)

The strength of this team will always come down to the depth and balance of their lineup, and the regional meet was no different for the Flyers.

Lewis finished 2nd overall, behind only Grand Valley State, at the Midwest Regional XC Championships and showed off their tight pack once again. They had just a 19-second spread from their first to their fifth runner.

The lack of a clear low-stick admittedly limits this team's upward mobility. After the GLVC XC Championships, it seemed that perhaps individual conference champion Hannah Smrcka was going to play that role, but she went back to the pack at the Midwest regional meet. Seeing the Lakers put six women in front of the Flyers’ first runner is not super encouraging either, especially when the national meet is going to be much more crowded up front.

The Flyers are in the midst of a really strong season as is, but they still need a couple of All-Americans to emerge if they seek to upend a couple of the RMAC teams for a top-five result.

6. CSU-Pueblo ThunderWolves (0 / 6)

The ThunderWolves had a tough outing at the South Central Regional XC Championships. They ended up 6th overall and finished behind a couple of teams who they had already beaten during the season, including en route to their recent RMAC runner-up performance.

In many ways, it's difficult to rank the teams from that region. Several of the Colorado-based squads flip-flopped from where they finished at the RMAC meet to the South Central regional meet.

We're putting more stock into the conference meet because the snowy South Central regional course was a challenge and a contrast to what these runners will otherwise face.

When racing conditions are that extreme, there is bound to be some carnage that would not necessarily happen otherwise. On this occasion, that carnage most clearly affected CSU-Pueblo.

Their usual third runner, Leah Keisler, placed 66th overall and was their seventh finisher. On a normal day for Keisler, CSU-Pueblo may well have placed 3rd. That's a difficult development to overcome for a team with one of the RMAC's smallest rosters.

This is still a very strong team that should be ready for some fast racing in Sacramento, a course that suits the more middle distance-inclined Keisler as it does lead scorer Helen Braybrook.

5. UC-Colorado Springs Mountain Lions (+2 / 7)

Anna Fauske continues to lead this team and did a phenomenal job at the South Central regional meet. She finished runner-up to help her team to a 3rd-place finish and an automatic qualifying spot for the NCAA XC Championships.

Fauske put herself toward the front of the pack and worked her way up, while the rest of her team ran in one large pack further back for the first half of the race. Then the pack slowly moved up and passed a plethora of runners who probably went out too aggressively given the racing conditions.

This racing strategy paid off in a big way, as both Fauske and the Mountain Lions beat some women and teams who had recently bested them at the RMAC XC Championships.

We're hesitant to rank them any higher, even above the West Texas A&M team they just beat, because the near-perfect course and weather conditions teams are expected to experience at the national meet in Sacramento will be a contrast to what UCCS benefitted from this past weekend.

As long as the Mountain Lions are prepared for a fast race from the gun and secondary star Kate Hedlund can start a little higher up in the front of the race, then they can replicate what they achieved at the regional meet.

4. West Texas A&M Buffaloes (0 / 4)

West Texas A&M was another team that struggled in the Denver snow on Saturday, finishing 5th overall at the South Central Regional XC Championships.

After Sarah Koomson dropped out of the race, it was hard for the Buffaloes to make up the lost points with their first runner "only" finishing 17th. Clearly, weaknesses were exposed without Koomson. However, when she does race -- like when the 'Buffs posted a near-perfect score at the LSC XC Championships behind Koomson's 1st-place result -- this is one of the nation's most robust scoring lineups.

A win over UCCS at the Louisville Classic last month also helped West Texas A&M's case to maintain their TSR #4 standing.

West Texas A&M has All-American candidates outside of Koomson but is not a podium team if she continues to drop out of races. We don't believe that will happen at the NCAA XC Championships, where she placed 6th as a freshman last fall.

3. Grand Valley State Lakers (0 / 3)

The Lakers were five points away from a perfect score at the Midwest Regional XC Championships. Given that they maintain their TSR #3 ranking, that was hardly a surprise.

The most notable recent developments for GVSU are the sustained success of Lauren Kiley, who has won conference and regional titles since making a delayed season debut, and the return of Abby Olson.

All things equal, Olson competing on Saturday was a positive development after she'd been on the shelf since early October. However, she didn't look like the same woman who was GVSU's top scorer against D1 competition at both the Auto-Owners (MSU) Spartan Invitational and the Joe Piane Notre Dame Invitational.

Olson placed 10th at the Midwest regional meet, finishing as the Lakers' sixth scorer. That's not a major concern given that it was her first race in over a month and GVSU didn't need a standout result from her in order to win the regional title.

Either way, the Lakers are a heavy podium favorite in 2024 even after losing several key components from their 2023 national title team.

2. Colorado Mines Orediggers (0 / 2)

1. Adams State Grizzlies (0 / 1)

It's hard to talk about either of these teams without referencing the other. In one of the most predictable outcomes of the D2 regional weekend, Adams State cruised to a South Central regional title while Colorado Mines finished runner-up behind them.

It was the first time we've seen the top two teams go head-to-head (Colorado Mines didn't field a varsity lineup at the RMAC XC Championships) this fall, and it played out as expected despite adverse course conditions.

The Grizzlies put all seven runners in the top-25 (and four in the top-10) of the nation's most loaded regional meet. In a similar show of depth, the Orediggers landed all seven in the top-40 and six in the top-30 of the 171-woman field, albeit with less up-front potency.

Colorado Mines finished closer to Adams State than they did to the rest of the field despite doubling the Grizzlies' scoring output, and it didn't even feel like they had their best day. If Kiley and Olson are both at their best, GVSU can conceivably take the second top-half podium spot behind Adams State, but Colorado Mines has done nothing to dissuade us from projecting them in that position.