TSR's 2023 Preseason D3 XC Top 10 Rankings (Women): #1 Wartburg Knights

NOTE: Earlier this summer, The Stride Report reached out to nearly every team that was considered for a possible ranking this summer. While we did receive numerous responses and great clarity, we did not get a 100% response rate. On rare occasions, we are referencing TFFRS in order to talk about returners and athletes who are out of eligibility.

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Click here to see our "Just Missed" & "Honorable Mention" teams

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For the last few years, it has felt like the Wartburg women have been right on the doorstep of a cross country national title. And yet, they have come up short in each of those recent instances. The well-established D3 powerhouse has been a top-six team on the national stage over the last three years (excluding 2020) and has been on the podium over the last two.

In fact, despite the excellent and extensive history of this program, the Knights have not yet won a national title as a team on the grass.

But as we enter the fall of 2023, the Wartburg women may be primed to change history. With some of the most overwhelmingly impressive firepower of any team in D3 this year, we have to look at the Knights as clear national title favorites come November...right?

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The first real test of Wartburg's 2022 cross country season didn't come until October 1st where they faced off against Washington U. at the Dan Huston Invitational. And while each team was stacked with numerous All-American-caliber runners, it was the Knights who were simply better than the Bears at each top-five scoring spot.

Aubrie Fisher and Lexi Brown made a statement by going 1-2 over Emily Konkus, the lead scorer for Washington U. And with Shaelyn Hostager snagging a 4th place finish, it was clear that this Wartburg lineup was simply better as a whole. That was further exemplified when Ellie Meyer placed 6th and Riley Mayer finished 8th.

Even in a smaller field which was largely a duel meet, the Knights easily cruised past the Bears by 13 points. It was a wildly impressive showing from the entirety of Wartburg's top-five.

But for as strong as that performance was, Wartburg would face a far more challenging task at the Augustana Interregional Invite. Not only would they have a rematch against Washington U., but they would also have to battle fellow national title contender, U. of Chicago.

And unfortunately for the Knights, the end result wasn't as positive as their last race.

Fisher delivered on her elite low-stick potential with a huge runner-up finish. She was also supported by Meyer who placed 8th overall. However, that was the final scorer that Wartburg had in the top-10. Brown (13th), Hostager (16th) and Mayer (17th) all held their own, but it was also fair to suggest that those women could have been slightly better.

In the end, the Maroons proved to be stronger in the middle portion of their scoring lineup. And as a result, the Knights fell to their midwest rivals, 54 points to 57 points. Sure, it wasn't the most ideal performance, but at least the Wartburg women had room to improve and were still in the national title conversation.

The American Rivers Conference XC Championships was largely a cakewalk for a Wartburg team that was simply better than everyone else. They posted just 20 points by sweeping spots 2-3-4-5-6.

The Midwest Regional XC Championships were certainly more competitive and the Knights did get the better of U. of Chicago. But with a clear emphasis being placed on the national meet, it was hard to get too excited about a result that would pale in comparison to the importance of Division Three's season finale.

As the Wartburg women toed the line in Lansing, Michigan, the general consensus was that this team could realistically win the national title. In the eyes of some, they may have even been favorites.

That, however, was not what the final results suggested.

Through four runners, the Knights looked unstoppable. Fisher, Brown and Meyer put together a lethal scoring trio that went 14-16-22, respectively. Those three All-Americans allowed the Wartburg women to keep pace with Johns Hopkins and U. of Chicago through three runners.

When Shaelyn Hostager crossed the line in 33rd place, it was clear that the Knights had an advantage through four runners. All they needed to do was close out their top-five fast enough to secure NCAA gold.

Unfortunately, the latter-half of Wartburg's lineup simply struggled. No other women cracked the top-130 spots overall, causing the team's score to inflate. Instead, the Blue Jays and Maroons broke away to finish 1st and 2nd, respectively, while the Knights still posted a very strong and commendable 3rd place finish.

Was it a great result? Yes.

But was it the result that the Wartburg women wanted? No, probably not.

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As we enter the fall of 2023, this Wartburg team should be just as top-heavy as they were last year. The Knights will have no shortage of firepower over the next few months and there shouldn't be any other team in D3 that can match their established low-sticks.

And with tons of experience, it's hard to see how this team takes a step back.

The only major loss that this team endures is Riley Mayer, a true veteran who clearly had All-American potential last fall. Yes, she struggled on the national stage, but this woman was very clearly a top-40 talent (at the very least) in 2022.

Mayer was also the reason why the Wartburg women had so much success during the regular season. She often plugged one of the last few scoring spots in the Knights' lineup and gave this team a complete top-five.

Without her, Wartburg's team score would have skyrocketed by a good amount and the Knights would have fallen to many of the better teams in the midwest.

The good news is that the Knights' top-four from last year -- Aubrie Fischer, Lexi Brown, Ellie Meyer and Shaelyn Hostager -- all return. That is a juggernaut quartet of scorers and through four women, no team in Division Three should be able to match this squad.

After all, we have those four Knights listed at TSR #2, TSR #6, TSR #10 and TSR #16, respectively, in our D3 preseason cross country top-20 individual rankings.

We could go on and on about how incredible each of those women are and talk about the scoring value that each of these talented stars bring as low-sticks. But truthfully, that feels unnecessary. Paragraphs upon paragraphs of analysis would simply be a long-winded way of saying that these four Wartburg runners are really, really good.

Instead, it's the fifth and final scoring spot of this projected lineup that will ultimately determine whether or not the Wartburg women can win a national title in 2023.

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With Riley Mayer now gone, the options that the Knights have to fill out the rest of their lineup admittedly feel limited in comparison to other top teams. However, in our eyes, Haley Meyer (who we don't think is related to Ellie Meyer, although we're not entirely sure) is likely the best candidate to look at when it comes to the final scoring spot.

Haley Meyer, while still a developmental name, was fairly solid throughout last year. A 16th place finish at the Dan Huston Invite and a 33rd place finish at the Augustana Interregional Invitational were both solid and respectable performances.

The same could be said for her 9th place finish at the ARC XC Championships. She also placed 159th on the national stage last year.

Meyer will certainly need to make improvements upon her performances from last year if this team wants to win a national title. There isn't much nuance to be had in that conversation.

Luckily, Meyer doesn't need to be a superstar talent or even an All-American. If she can simply stay within striking distance of the fifth runner for other title-contending teams, then Wartburg's firepower should be strong enough to carry this team to NCAA gold.

And do we think that Meyer will improve in 2023? Yes, we absolutely do. Of course, trying to figure out exactly how much she'll progress is the biggest question.

Another woman to keep an eye on this fall is Lilly Boge. Admittedly, she had a fairly quiet freshman year and doesn't hav any performances on the track. But this is someone who just won a rust-buster while racing alongside Lexi Brown.

Should we put a ton of stock into that performance and declare Boge as a low-stick star? No, that would be a rushed take and truthfully, these early-season meets usually hold no bearing on what actually happens throughout the rest of the fall months.

Even so, that's an encouraging result that at least suggests that this sophomore can enter this lineup and maybe even battle with Haley Meyer for that fifth and final scoring spot. Again, it's hard to pull much insight from a race that took place on September 2nd, but it's certainly not a bad sign.

Other women such as Addy Carlson, Jenna Morey, Lily Peterson, Maddie Prier, Kelly Giardina and maybe a few others, have shown very subtle signs of potential for this fall. One of these women would need to have a huge breakout season to have an impact on this lineup in 2023, but it's not entirely impossible for that to happen. Carlson, specifically, has national meet experience from last year.

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The core message surrounding this team is fairly clear: Find a capable fifth runner, and you'll win a national title. It's that simple.

The top-four of this projected lineup is so unbelievably good and they'll likely be even better than they were last year. And if that's the case, then Haley Meyer (or whoever their fifth runner ends up being) won't need to make dramatic improvements.

Sure, this team isn't void of imperfections, but neither is any other team in D3 this fall. And given Wartburg's history, we feel more confident than not that they'll find a capable fifth scorer to close out their lineup.

The Knights have been fairly close to a national title on a handful of occasions since 2012. But in the fall of 2023, could this finally be the year where the women of Waverly, Iowa deliver on their potential and secure their first-ever national team title?

We certainly think they can...