TSR's 2023 Preseason D1 XC Top 50 Rankings: Just Missed & Honorable Mentions (Men)

Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
Jul 18, 2023
9 min read

Here we go. Our 2023 men's and women's preseason individual cross country rankings. Let's start with our Just Missed and Honorable Mention names.

As a reminder, you can find our rankings rubric here. This week will be our D1 rankings while next week will be our D2 and D3 rankings. Let's begin...

JUST MISSED (in no particular order)

Colin Sahlman, Sophomore, Northern Arizona

Depending on who you ask at The Stride Report, no one was more of a headache to try and rank than Colin Sahlman.

The rising Northern Arizona sophomore has a unique resume featuring an underwhelming rookie cross country campaign, but a fantastic spring season.

Despite his high school pedigree, it took time for Sahlman to adapt to NCAA competition. Last fall, he finished 60th at Nuttycombe, 7th at the BIG Sky XC Championships, 25th at the Mountain Regional XC Championships and 151st at the NCAA XC Championships.

Sure, that Nuttycombe result wasn't too shabby for a true freshman, but when looking at his entire season, Sahlman wasn't anywhere close to being a top-50 talent.

Of course, that may be changing this year.

On the outdoor track, the NAU talent ran times of 1:46.99 (800), 3:38 (1500) and 13:42 (5k). And when you pair those marks with his elite high school background, the idea that Sahlman can be an All-American this fall is hardly a stretch.

But ultimately, we couldn't find enough room to keep him in our top-50.

Sahlman oozes upside and elite potential. However, his best marks have come in the middle distance events and there are significant improvements that need to be made on the grass if he wants to be a top-50 guy.

That being said, we certainly think he can get there.

Luke Combs, Senior, Air Force

Ok, we have good news and bad news when it comes to Luke Combs' resume.

The good news is that the Air Force veteran never had a poor performance last fall. At the Nuttycombe Invitational, Combs secured a strong 29th place finish, ultimately taking down five men who went on to earn All-American honors. He later placed 70th at the national meet, theoretically positioning himself for a potential All-American campaign in 2023.

The bad news, however, is that Combs hasn't raced since the cross country national meet! According to TFRRS, he's been absent from competition as far back as November.

And truthfully, while his 2022 results were very solid and void of any flaws, we needed to see more firepower from Combs before he cracked our rankings. For those reasons, we placed him in our "Just Missed" section.

Wil Smith, Junior, Gonzaga

Admittedly, Wil Smith doesn't have the flashy resume, name recognition or upside that Colin Sahlman has -- but he may not need any of that.

The Gonzaga veteran has been fairly reliable in his two most recent cross country seasons. He provides valuable scoring as a low-stick and his best races have come on larger stages...well, most of the time.

In the fall of 2021, Smith snagged a stunning 11th place finish at Nuttycombe. That, however, would easily be the biggest highlight of his season. But in 2022, the Bulldog ace showed greater consistency.

Last fall, Smith placed 50th at the Cowboy Jamboree, 32nd at Nuttycombe, was top-five at both his conference and regional meets and then placed 59th at the NCAA XC Championships. In our eyes, we saw promising progression and an ability to peak for the postseason.

However, maybe more importantly, Smith ran times of 3:59 (mile), 7:53 (3k), 13:40 (5k) and 28:24 (10k) this past spring. Those results suggest that Smith can be an All-American come November.

There's a VERY good argument that Wil Smith should be ranked. But we opted to hold off until we see him replicate something (somewhat) close to what he did at Nuttycombe in 2021. Sure, he's one of the more reliable cross country scorers you can have, but how much better will he be in the fall of 2023?

Florian Le Pallec, Senior, Butler

Last fall, Florian Le Pallec looked like a "good" cross country runner, but he was never "great".

The former California Baptist talent finished 10th at the Griak Invitational, 11th at Pre-Nationals, 5th at the WAC XC Championships and then 19th at the West Regional XC Championships.

That's a respectable resume, but it doesn't necessarily scream that Le Pallec is a top-50 runner during the fall months.

Of course, what many people may not know about this French distance standout is what he has done over 5000 meters this spring and summer. The incoming graduate transfer for Butler ran an astounding 13:29 (5k) PR back in May, easily surpassing his prior 13:40 mark.

This is the part of the article where you probably say, "Ok, that's great, but that's only one race. Don't you guys value consistency?" And you're right, we do!

That's why it's also important to note that just a few weeks after that PR, the 24-year old validated that result with a 13:30 effort over 5000 meters.

This fall, pressure will be on Le Pallec to emerge as a true All-American low-stick for the Butler men. The Bulldogs return everyone from last year's cross country squad which qualified for the national meet...except top-20 All-American, Barry Keane.

Le Pallec doesn't need to be quite as good as Keane was. He will, however, need to fully translate his recent success over 5000 meters to the grass and showcase greater consistency while doing so.

Ryan Schoppe, Junior, Oklahoma State

It's absolutely wild that we live in a day and age where a 7:41 (3k) guy isn't among the top-50 cross country runners in the nation. Nowadays, the conversation is a bit different.

Ryan Schoppe has been a standout distance runner for Oklahoma State ever since he first entered the program. He has made terrific strides on the track and made respectable improvements on the grass throughout last fall.

The 2021 cross country season was admittedly underwhelming for Schoppe. He never fully capitalized on certain opportunities and his national meet performance was flat-out bad.

Of course, that all changed in 2022.

Last fall, Schoppe started off with a rocky 98th place finish on his home course at the Cowboy Jamboree. But then he toed the line for Pre-Nationals where he produced a very solid 7th place finish.

After largely cruising through his conference and regional meets, the Texas native would end his fall campaign with a promising 53rd place finish at the NCAA XC Championships.

And of course, throughout the winter months, Schoppe would look like a completely different runner, producing times of 3:55 (mile) and 7:41.99 (3k). He also ran 13:37 (5k) at the Bryan Clay Invite earlier this spring.

No one would be surprised if Schoppe ended up being an All-American this fall. His track times and ongoing development indicate that he can reach that point. Even so, we have yet to see a truly definitive cross country result that can put Schoppe in our top-50.

And until that happens, we have to, unfortunately, put him in our "Just Missed" column.

Matt Strangio, Rs. Junior, Portland

Everything I said about Florian La Pallec above can essentially be copied and pasted here.

Last fall, Matt Strangio proved to be a "good" cross country runner. But with just three races on his schedule -- none of which were the national meet -- there wasn't a lot of data on Strangio to analyze.

The Portland veteran did post a strong 32nd place result at Nuttycombe, making Strangio a borderline low-stick for the Pilots. But after placing 13th at the WCC XC Championships and 18th at the West Regional XC Championships, the California native ended his fall season early and shifted his focus to the track.

Luckily, it was the oval where Strangio took his racing to a new level. Between the indoor and outdoor track seasons, the Portland ace took his 5000 meter PR down from 13:57 to 13:39 to 13:31 to 13:30. He also ran 3:39 for 1500 meters twice.

When it comes to pure long distance talents, Strangio is probably a top-50 runner in the NCAA. However, we can't find room for him in our preseason list with a cross country resume that, frankly, just needs to be better.

Nathan Mountain, Sophomore, Virginia

Here's a fun fact: Nathan Mountain is technically going to be a junior (academically speaking), but he has only toed the line for two cross country races throughout his entire NCAA career (per TFRRS).

That, however, will almost certainly change in 2023.

This past spring, Mountain tore up the track. He ran 3:39 for 1500 meters and 13:48 for 5000 meters. He also ran an 8:32 PR in the steeplechase to win the ACC title. Mountain would go on to earn 4th place All-American honors and tally five instances where he ran under 8:40 in the steeplechase.

There's no denying that this Cavalier standout is at a completely different level of fitness than he has been in past seasons. His consistency in an event as volatile as the steeplechase also holds value when crafting rankings such as these.

Of course, with a nearly-non-existent cross country resume, we just need to see Nathan Mountain truly compete on the grass before we can say that he's a top-50 talent.

Ethan Strand, Junior, North Carolina

We figured that Ethan Strand would eventually be a star at the collegiate level...we just didn't think that it would come this quickly.

Throughout last fall, the North Carolina ace didn't post any results that truly made us turn our heads. Placing 117th at Nuttycombe and 27th at the ACC XC Championships didn't capture anyone's attention.

But then, at the NCAA XC Championships, Strand had the best race of his career up-and-to that point. As a sophomore, the Alabama native produced an impressive 62nd place finish on the rolling hills of Stillwater, Oklahoma.

Sure, it wasn't a star-caliber result, but it was an encouraging step in the right direction.

On the oval, Strand was absolutely electric. He ran times of 3:38 (1500), 3:55 (mile), 7:46 (3k) and 13:46 (5k). The UNC ace thrived at the ACC Championships, taking down multiple stars, and made it to the finals at the outdoor national meet over 1500 meters.

All signs are pointing up for Ethan Strand. He has made massive improvements in nearly every aspect, he still has room for growth and his times suggest that he can be a top-50 runner.

Of course, there's only one legitimately strong cross country result on Strand's resume from the 2022 cross country season. And when you look at his best racing on the track, the current Tar Heel junior clearly gets better when he moves towards the 1500 meter distance -- not away from it.

Simply put, we know that Strand is talented, but we want to see him translate his success to the 8k and 10k distances before we rank him.

Leo Young, Freshman, Stanford

Where do we even start?

Leo Young is one of the best high school distance runners ever. He may not be THE best ever, but he's certainly among the all-time greats. His times of 3:39 (1500), 8:39 (3200) and 14:05 (5k XC) will turn the heads of most knowledgeable distance running fans.

But frankly, the Class of 2023 is so unbelievably stacked at the very top of the distance events. Truthfully, there were six true freshmen who had somewhat reasonable arguments to be ranked or be listed in our "Just Missed" section.

So how does Leo Young, who was the 11th place finisher at the 2022 NXN Championships, find himself on the fringes of our list?

The answer can be found in the 2023 U20 USATF XC Championship results. In that race, Young emerged victorious over a handful of college freshman. Not only that, but he did so convincingly, running 23:47 over 8k to defeat Micah Wilson (Wisconsin) by seven seconds.

Young would later venture to the U20 World XC Championships where he finished an excellent 16th place overall.

Those two results are a major reason why the incoming Stanford freshman is listed in this spot. While other high school elites such as Simeon Birnbaum, Connor Burns and Rocky Hansen have resumes similar to Young, none of them have the proven success over 8000 meters that he does.

Connor Burns, Freshman, Oregon

If Leo Young was going to be listed in this portion of our rankings, then it seemed only fair to add one other high school star to this section as well. And after plenty of arguing, we settled on Connor Burns.

What we saw from this incoming Duck this past year was incredible. The Missouri native ended his high school career with times of 3:58 (mile) and 8:31 (3200) while also securing top finishes against elite competition, including an indoor national title (New Balance).

However, this is the part where our readers will begin to argue with us.

Simeon Birnbaum was probably the best prep distance runner in the country this past year.

Tyrone Gorze holds a resume which suggests that he'll thrive when moving up in distance.

Both Aaron Sahlman and Kole Mathison are cross country national champions.

Heck, Burns didn't even run that well at the NXN Championships last fall!

But what none of those names have that Burns does is a jaw-dropping time of 13:37 for 5000 meters. That was, briefly, a new high school record before Lex Young took the record back with a 13:34 mark of his own.

It's easy to undervalue how insane that 13:37 (5k) PR is after seeing what Lex Young did just a few weeks later. However, Burns broke a record from Galen Rupp that Nico Young didn't even come close to breaking when he was in high school.

And frankly, in any other year, it would have been almost shocking if we didn't rank a freshman who ran 13:37 (5k) in high school.

In our eyes, placing a high schooler who ran 13:37 (5k) in our "Honorable Mentions" list just seemed like too much of a crime. And for that reason, this future Oregon star will settle into our "Just Missed" section.