TSR's 2023 Preseason D1 XC Top 50 Rankings: #40-31 (Women)

Written by Scotty Loughlin, additional commentary and edits by Garrett Zatlin

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Click here to read our rankings rubric

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40. Irene Riggs, Freshman, Stanford

Arguably the most highly-touted distance runner on the high school scene last year, expectations are high for Irene Riggs to perform during her rookie season. The incoming Cardinal rookie enters the NCAA with a decorated resume from the prep level, but how exactly will her talent translate to collegiate competition in year one?

A true front-runner, Riggs dominated her high school competition and won three state titles on the grass. During her senior campaign, she set a PR of 16:02 (5k) en route to a dominant victory at the NXR Southeast Regional Championships. And if that weren’t enough, Riggs’ postseason brilliance continued with legacy-defining victories at the NXN Championships and the USATF XC Championships.

Oh, and a 12th place finish at the U20 World XC Championships wasn't too shabby, either.

The Stanford freshman has proven to be formidable on the track as well, boasting a resume with personal bests of 2:12 (800), 4:38 (mile) and 9:45 (3200).

After a prep career in which Riggs was head-and-shoulders above her competition, there’s naturally some hesitation when forecasting how she’ll race in more competitive fields across six kilometers. The general youth and inexperience of all freshmen makes it incredibly challenging to view them as reliable top-40 contenders throughout the entirety of a season.

Despite this hesitation, Riggs’ ceiling is way too high to not warrant a top-50 ranking. And given her impeccable consistency that she showed during her high school career, it's hard to see her having too many poor races over the next few months.

TSR #40 feels like a reasonable spot as a starting point for this all-time great.

39. Greta Karinauskaite, Sophomore, California Baptist

We'll be honest, this spot in our rankings is a complete dart throw for Greta Karinauskaite.

This California Baptist star will most likely prove us wrong in one of two ways: Our current preseason ranking may be overly optimistic (possibly by a lot), or her current ranking could end up being criminally low based on what she did this past spring.

Last fall was a mixed bag of results for the Lancer star during her first season of Division One competition. The Weis-Crockett Invitational (5th) and WAC XC Championships (3rd) were solid results for Karinauskaite while the Griak Invitational (16th) and West Regional XC Championships (39th) left more to be desired.

Karinauskaite’s cross country season ended with a disappointing 214th place finish at the NCAA XC Championships. That, however, was last year.

In 2023, Karinauskaite has morphed into a completely different runner.

The Lancers do not compete during indoor track, so the first we saw of Karinauskaite’s transformation was on the outdoor oval this past spring. There, she set huge personal bests of 15:36 (5k), 33:27 (10k) and most importantly, a 9:26 (steeple) mark which currently puts her at NCAA #6 all-time.

In addition to the eye-popping times, Karinauskaite showed a level of grit at the NCAA Outdoor Championships where she bravely ran from the front for the majority of the race. That effort rewarded her with a runner-up finish behind Olivia Markezich.

Given her newfound fitness, as well as her ability to peak in the postseason this past spring, it feels safe to say that Karinauskaite could be a top-40 runner on the grass (if not higher).

But until we see her fully translate those results to the grass, we’ll cross our fingers and place her at TSR #39 in our preseason cross country rankings.

38. Katie Osika, Senior, Michigan State

Spartan veteran Katie Osika broke out in a major way last fall, quickly becoming one of the best long distance runners in the BIG 10 while solidifying herself as an All-American favorite coming into 2023.

After raising eyebrows at the MSU Spartan Invitational (2nd) and Griak Invitational (6th), Osika leaped onto the national spotlight with a fairly strong 37th place finish at Nuttycombe. It was arguably the best result of her career at that point in time, but the Waterford, Michigan native didn’t stop there.

Osika carried her momentum to the postseason where she finished runner-up to Addie Engel at the BIG 10 XC Championships. She later took home bronze at the Great Lakes Regional XC Championships.

Heading into the national meet, Osika felt like a fringe All-American contender. Luckily, she left any doubts behind her as she crossed the line in 33rd place for a well-deserved All-American honor.

The Michigan State star has shown consistency at the highest level and now has additional experience to pair with her nationally competitive highlights. And while some of her races were better than others last fall, there doesn't seem to be a true flaw on Osika's resume.

We do have questions about how high Osika's ceiling will be during her senior season. We know she's good, but how much better can she get? Regardless, the Michigan State veteran will still be a strong contender to finish in a similar position at this year's NCAA XC Championships.

37. Billah Jepkirui, Junior, Oklahoma State

When it comes to evaluating an athlete based on maximum potential, there’s a lot to get excited about when forecasting the future of Billah Jepkirui. The rising sophomore showed flashes of being a top-20 talent during her first season in Stillwater, Oklahoma and has markedly improved on the track as well.

Entering the NCAA with the reputation of a solid middle distance runner, Jepkirui’s cross country ability was largely unknown last summer. But then the Kenya native pleasantly surprised Oklahoma State fans at the Cowboy Jamboree with a 15th place finish.

The next time she returned to her home course, Jepkirui took down Yasna Petrova, Calli Doan and Greta Karinauskaite for a signature win at the Weis-Crockett Invitational.

Jepkirui’s stock hit its highest at the BIG 12 XC Championships where she secured bronze ahead of her talented teammates, Natalie Cook and Gabby Hentemann. Unfortunately, the Cowgirl rookie’s first “off” day occurred at the national meet where she faded to 151st place, well short of her All-American potential.

Despite that national meet result, Jepkirui exhibited solid progression on the track throughout the indoor and outdoor track seasons. The Cowgirl rookie ended her freshman campaign with personal bests of 2:04 (800), 4:10 (1500) and 9:04 (3k).

When it came to championship racing on the track, Jepkirui was solid every time that she had been tested. She won BIG 12 titles in the mile as well as the 1500 meters and capped off her spring season with a huge 5th place finish at the outdoor national meet.

Simply put, Jepkirui has been on fire since the 2022 NCAA XC Championships. She has only had one legitimate underwhelming performance against collegiate competition and even that felt like a bit of a fluke. She could be primed for an All-American performance this fall and a star-caliber career in the long term.

36. Emma Heckel, Junior, New Mexico

One of the biggest compliments you can give a cross country runner is having a high floor, where underperforming never feels likely, and Emma Heckel embodies that to a tee. She was a quality low-stick for the New Mexico women from start to finish last fall despite facing a highly competitive schedule.

Heckel began her 2022 fall campaign with a somewhat modest, but still strong, 16th place finish at Joe Piane making a respectable improvement at Nuttycombe, finishing 26th overall.

The Lobo star didn’t look back after finding her form. The long distance veteran gained valuable postseason momentum and threw down a huge 3rd place performance at the Mountain West XC Championships where she took down teammates Elise Thorner and Gracelyn Larkin.

Ultimately, Heckel’s postseason ended successfully with a 38th place finish at the NCAA XC Championships. Yes, that result was a good bit lower than her national meet performance from a year prior, but the model of consistency that Heckel was able to exhibit last fall (and extend from the 2021 season) was commendable.

It's hard to know which version of Heckel we'll see in 2023. Will she be the 2021 version of herself when she finished 18th overall at the NCAA XC Championships? Or is her 2022 season more indicative of her talent in general?

We don't know the answer to that, but there’s no reason to think that she won’t be able to replicate her All-American fitness once more this fall. She's one of the more reliable low-sticks in the nation and the fact that she has been a top-20 All-American before adds some additional value to her 2023 preseason ranking.

35. Isabel Van Camp, Senior, Arkansas

Last fall, the Arkansas women needed Isabel Van Camp to step up after the departures of low-sticks, Lauren Gregory and Krissy Gear. And when she was needed the most, Van Camp answered the bell, even exceeding expectations at a few national-caliber meets.

The rise of this Arkansas ace began at the loaded Cowboy Jamboree where Van Camp secured a huge 10th place finish ahead of distance stars such as Bailey Hertenstein, Lexy Halladay-Lowry and Billah Jepkirui.

The Razorback standout then took down her former teammate Lauren Gregory (racing unattached) at the Chile Pepper XC Festival before recording perhaps her most significant result of the season -- a 10th place finish at Nuttycombe.

That latter result produced a gravitational shift in the optics of what kind of runner Van Camp could be on the national stage. Taking down established veterans like Aubrey Frentheway, Olivia Markezich and Samantha Bush vaulted Van Camp into the upper-echelon of NCAA distance athletes.

And just when we began to wonder just how legit that result was, Van Camp backed up her Nuttycombe effort with another impressive race at the SEC XC Championships, holding off Amaris Tyynismaa and Flomena Asekol for 4th place.

Unfortunately, Van Camp's magical season did not have a storybook ending. The Razorback star finished a solid 48th place at the national meet, but it felt like she deserved so much more based on the whole body of work that she put in during the entirety of her fall campaign.

And since last fall, things have only become more complicated for this Arkansas runner. That's because we have seen very little of Van Camp on the track this year; in fact, she has recorded no results since January due to an injury.

With essentially zero recent race data, question marks loom regarding what kind of form this Arkansas star will be in come October and November. If she’s fit and healthy, then Van Camp could put together a comeback campaign where she emerges as one of the 20-best distance runners in the country.

At her best, she is truly that good.

34. Izzy Thornton-Bott, Senior, Oregon

Aussie star Izzy Thornton-Bott showed her true range last fall as a middle distance specialist who has a knack for tearing up the grass, too.

Across all three seasons of competition, this Oregon ace has a proven ability to peak at the right time and there’s no reason to suggest that she won’t be able to replicate that success during her senior cross country campaign.

After a truthfully modest 11th place finish at in the Bill Dellinger Invitational last fall, Thornton-Bott had a true breakout race (on the grass) at Nuttycombe where she finished 24th. That result put her ahead of top distance talents such as Elise Thorner, Emma Heckel, Kelsey Harrington and many other All-Americans.

The Oregon standout would later prove that her Nuttycombe result was not a fluke as she then finished a highly impressive 4th place overall at the PAC-12 XC Championships, taking down Kaylee Mitchell, Simone Plourde and Zofia Dudek.

And it was at that point where we began to question, "Just how good is this Aussie Duck?"

Thornton-Bott capped off her 2022 cross country season with a commendable 36th place finish at the national meet, earning her first All-American honor on the grass. But given her conference meet performance, the expectation for her was probably closer to a top-30 result.

Since last fall, this Duck veteran has taken a substantial leap in her fitness on the track, now holding a personal best of 4:08 (1500). She also finished runner-up in that event at the NCAA Outdoor Championships this past spring.

But the question remains, how much better can this Oregon veteran be on the grass? Has her ceiling in the longer distances already been met? Between Nuttycombe, the PAC-12 Championships and the national meet, which of those races were the best indicator of her overall talent?

To balance those competing thoughts, Thornton-Bott slots in at TSR #34.

33. Maggie Donahue, Senior, Georgetown

When it comes to showing up for every major cross country competition, Maggie Donahue has perfect attendance. Whether it’s a small, medium-sized, or national-caliber field, the Hoya superstar always delivers.

Last fall, Donahue kicked-off her season with a respectable, but not necessarily dominant, series of races at the Coaching Tree Invitational (5th), Paul Short (3rd) and Nuttycombe (33rd).

Each of those efforts indicated that Donahue would once again be an All-American contender. But admittedly, some of the athletes who crossed the line before her didn’t have the same level of distance running pedigree.

Luckily, Donahue was able to regain her rhythm with silver medal finishes at both the BIG East XC Championships and the Mid-Atlantic Regional XC Championships, giving her strong momentum heading into the national meet.

Then, just like she had done during the prior two seasons, the Georgetown ace masterfully navigated the NCAA XC Championships and secured another All-American honor, this time to the sweet tune of a 21st place finish.

But truthfully, that result only left us more unsure as to where we should rank her this fall.

Donahue had a strong 2022 campaign, but her season as a whole didn't produce many marquee finishes. If she had barely cracked the top-40 on the national stage, no one would have been surprised.

But a 21st place finish was a somewhat significant deviation from what she had done throughout most of last fall. And now, as we enter the fall of 2023, we find ourselves trying to find a proper middle ground for Donahue.

Although the Hoya star hasn’t undergone a transformation on the track like some women, she was able to set a new 5k PR of 15:43 this past winter. That, paired with her metronomic consistency, makes her one of the most reliable cross country veterans in the nation.

It would be foolish to bet against Donahue as she takes aim at a fourth-consecutive top-40 finish come November. That's why we'll award her bullet-proof cross country resume with a preseason ranking of TSR #33.

32. Kelsey Harrington, Junior, North Carolina

Throughout the course of the 2022 cross country season, Kelsey Harrington was putting together a quality streak of finishes and appeared to be a fringe contender for an All-American finish.

That evaluation, however, would end up being "slightly" off.

Last fall, Harrington kicked-off her season with a 4th place finish at the Coaching Tree Invitational followed by an 8th place result at Paul Short. Both of those efforts were solid, but her results didn't necessarily warrant any massive expectations at the time.

Then, suddenly, Harrington threw down a signature performance at the Nuttycombe Invitational. In Madison, Wisconsin, the Tar heel distance talent finished in 27th place overall. That performance allowed her to to defeat the likes of Amina Maatoug, Emily Covert, Bethany Graham and other distance stars in the process.

She wasn't a superstar, but that result undoubtedly put her in the All-American conversation.

With more expected from Harrington, an 11th place result at the ACC XC Championships was a result that probably could have been closer to 6th place. It wasn't a bad effort, but we felt like she could have done more.

Of course, as I mentioned earlier, our evaluation of Harrington at the time wasn't necessarily an accurate representation of what she would do on the national stage.

That's because in Stillwater, the UNC runner found her top form when it mattered most, throwing down a stunning 17th place finish at the NCAA XC Championships! Her performance completely redefined how we viewed Harrington among the nation's best.

And if that last race didn't make ranking her difficult enough, we also have to consider that she hasn't raced since December! That, in turn, adds another layer uncertainty to her resume.

We'll admit, it's been a challenge to gauge Harrington compared to other distance standouts. She has a knack for performing at a very high level in huge fields, but she sometimes records quieter results at medium-sized meets.

As we balance her likely-high talent ceiling with concerns of top-level consistency (and her recent racing absence), TSR #32 feels like a fair compromise for this Tar Heel talent.

31. Lexy Halladay-Lowry, Senior, BYU

Prior to last season, Lexy Halladay-Lowry was often “on the bubble” of our top-50 rankings -- she would have strong regular season performances, but she wasn't able to put it all together at the national meet.

But in the fall of 2022, the BYU veteran finally broke through when it mattered most. And now, as we enter her final season on the grass, this rising Cougar star has the experience and talent to replicate her All-American performance from last fall...and maybe more.

After winning a small rust-buster to open her 2022 season, Halladay-Lowry placed 13th at the loaded Cowboy Jamboree meet. That result wasn't a total shock, but it was certainly on the better end of what we expected. In that race, she finished ahead of Billah Jepkirui, Emily Covert, Ella Baran and other distance stars.

Halladay-Lowry then ventured to Nuttycombe and recorded a solid 57th place finish that was far from awful, but also a step back from her 20th place finish at the same meet a year prior. Naturally, we were left a little unsure about which version of her we would see on the national stage later that season.

Despite that effort, Halladay-Lowry reestablished her momentum in the postseason, finishing 4th overall at both the WCC XC Championships and the Mountain Regional XC Championships. And although she was showing promise, it felt like the Cougar star would be on the outside-looking-in for an All-American honor.

But instead, Halladay-Lowry continued her upwards trajectory and crossed the line in 34th place at the NCAA XC Championships. The BYU ace had finally gotten the monkey off of her back, securing a well-deserved All-American honor.

Of course, what Halladay-Lowry did on the oval was arguably even better. She ran 8:57 over 3000 meters, finished 4th at the outdoor national meet in the steeplechase and just ran 9:31 in that same event at the USA Outdoor Championships.

In other words, this BYU star is only getting better. And with the years of experience that Halladay-Lowry brings to the table, there’s no telling what she can do come October.