TSR's 2023 Preseason D1 XC Top 50 Rankings: #10-1 (Women)

Written by Maura Beattie, additional edits and commentary by Garrett Zatlin

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Click here to read our rankings rubric

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10. Amelia Mazza-Downie, Senior, Florida

New Mexico and Florida couldn’t be any more different from one another. That, however, won't stop Amelia Mazza-Downie from embracing the mentality that humidity "is a poor man’s altitude” and hopefully thriving as a result.

The Aussie distance star is jumping ship from New Mexico following the move of Coach Joe Franklin to Louisville. And rather than follow the coach who has led her to eight All-American finishes, she is heading south to Florida.

Mazza-Downie is going to be an extremely reliable athlete for the Gators this fall, maybe even the most reliable depending on how often Valby can race. The former Lobo has raced at three NCAA XC Championships throughout her career and after this past year, she now has star-caliber accolades to pair with her experience.

The Aussie distance star began last fall with solid finishes at Joe Piane (10th) and Nuttycombe (12th) before snagging a Mountain West individual title. She later placed 22nd on the national stage. That season, however, was just a precursor for a far greater campaign on the track.

After running 15:18 (5k indoors) and 32:07 (10k) during the most recent track seasons, Mazza-Downie's full strength-based firepower has never been more evident. On paper, she is significantly better than she was on the grass -- and she was already great!

Times like those will come in handy during the cross country season. Florida teammate Parker Valby often likes to make her races a test of endurance and in theory, Mazza-Downie is better suited for that racing style.

The incoming Florida graduate transfer is a true veteran with outstanding consistency and elite-level times. But could this coaching change lead to even greater heights for her?

A TSR #10 ranking may seem aggressive for someone who finished 22nd on the national stage last year, but things are starting to click for Mazza-Downie -- and change isn’t always a bad thing.

9. Maia Ramsden, Junior, Harvard

Everything went right for Harvard’s Maia Ramsden last year across all three seasons of competition. The rising junior began her year with an 11th place finish at the cross country national meet and capped off her year with her first national title over 1500 meters at the outdoor national meet.

Ramsden’s momentum and confidence have to be at an all-time high -- and that’s why she’s receiving a TSR #9 ranking heading into this upcoming cross country season.

Going into last fall, one wouldn’t have suspected Ramsden to be vying for a top-10 finish at the NCAA XC Championships given her resume on the grass. In 2021, the Crimson distance standout finished a respectable 110th place at the national meet. But by the time her sophomore cross country season rolled around, Ramsden was firing on all cylinders.

A pair of 7th place finishes at the Cowboy Jamboree and the Nuttycombe Invite catapulted the Harvard runner up in our rankings last fall. She was beating women who had handily defeated her a year prior and she was beginning to capture incredibly dangerous momentum going into the postseason.

Things only got better from there as the Harvard ace would go on to earn a stellar 11th place finish at the NCAA XC Championships, far exceeding any expectations placed upon her prior to the start of the season.

As she made her way to the indoor oval, the Kiwi distance star capitalized on her newfound strength and recorded personal bests of 4:30 (mile) and 8:54 (3k), marks that landed her a spot on the line at the indoor national meet.

Yes, Ramsden did take home two All-American honors at the NCAA Indoor Championships, but it was really the outdoor track season, specifically the outdoor national meet, where the Crimson star shined.

The Harvard ace entered the spring season with a 4:13 (1500) PR, but improved greatly on that en route to running 4:08. That time would not only gave her a new personal best, but it would also give her the national title in the event!

This Harvard star has some serious range which should allow her to thrive in numerous race scenarios. If the race requires a quicker finish, then Ramsden’s 1500 meter speed will come in handy. But, if the race is an instant test of one's aerobic capacity, then her 3k and 5k marks should translate to a top finish.

Ramsden has shown that she is versatile, experienced, wildly talented and, maybe most importantly, still improving. That, in turn, may make her the most dangerous woman in the NCAA this fall who isn't ranked in our top-five.

8. Bailey Hertenstein, Rs. Senior, Colorado

Colorado’s Bailey Hertenstein is the definition of a true cross country runner.

The redshirt senior, who transferred from Bloomington, Indiana to Boulder, Colorado last summer, clearly benefitted from a new training environment last fall. And early-on, it was clear that the recent graduate transfer had gone from "good" to "great" with the Buffaloes.

During the 2022 cross country season, the Buffalo front-runner found instant success by finishing 11th at the Cowboy Jamboree, her first look at the cross country national meet course. And not only did she back up that performance at Nuttycombe, but she outdid most expectations by crossing the line in 5th place!

And suddenly, Hertenstein's ceiling rose far higher than we thought it would.

That upper-tier consistency only continued for Hertenstein in the postseason as she won the PAC-12 individual title by a solid five seconds, a massive statement about her overall firepower and potential.

Sure enough, Colorado's newest low-stick star showed up to the NCAA XC Championships as a contender for a top-10 finish and comfortably delivered on expectations with a 5th place finish. It was a season of major success which completely shifted how we viewed Hertenstein in the national picture.

One would think that with her excellent cross country resume and 15:38 (5k) PR that we would see the Colorado ace opt for the 5k, and possibly 10k, on the track. But for some reason Hertenstein has consistently dropped down to the 1500 meters.

Don’t get us wrong, a 4:13 (1500) personal best is no walk in the park, and it does give the Buffalo talent some extra speed. Still, given her success on the grass, focusing on the longer distances around the oval would have made more sense.

Regardless, Hertenstein is an accomplished runner who seems to be an entirely different athlete on the grass than she is on the track. And while her efforts on the track weren't necessarily incredible, a few minor injuries (per Hertenstein) seem to explain that.

If she's at 100% this fall and able to replicate her incredible momentum from 2022, then there's a world where she could be ranked as high as TSR #3 this year.

7. Amaris Tyynismaa, Senior, NC State

Different singlet, same dream for Amaris Tyynismaa.

The newest NC State star, who joined the Wolfpack women as a winter transfer from Alabama, has the opportunity to earn her third All-American honor this fall -- as well as add to a dynasty-type legacy for the women of Raleigh, North Carolina.

After she broke out in the winter of 2021 by finishing 3rd at the NCAA XC Championships, we didn’t get to see Tyynismaa back up to full speed on the grass until the fall of 2022.

And if you thought that her bronze medal finish in the winter of 2021 was a fluke, then Tyynismaa made sure to prove otherwise.

Last fall, Tynismaa's 15th place finish at Joe Piane was a modest result for the All-American talent. But by the time the postseason came around, the former Crimson Tide runner was back where she belonged.

Racing side-by-side with her Alabama teammates at the cross country national meet, the dynamic distance star peaked when it mattered the most. Tyynismaa crossed the line in 9th place at the NCAA XC Championships and was the second Crimson Tide athlete across the line, helping them to a podium finish.

It came as a shock to see this veteran leave the Alabama program mid-year, especially after running a 3000 meter PR of 8:55 at the Boston U. Season Opener in December. But ever since Tyynismaa has arrived on the campus of NC State, she has only improved, specifically over 5000 meters.

A new 15:30 PR over 5000 meters highlights her recent resume, as well as another All-American honor after placing 4th in the event at the outdoor national meet.

Tyynismaa is a great championship racer on the grass who always peaks at the right moment. If things go as planned, the newly-minted NC State star should be able to produce her third top-10 finish at the NCAA XC Championships. Few women are consistently better on the national stage than she is.

6. Elise Stearns, Junior, Northern Arizona

When Northern Arizona's Elise Stearns crossed the line in 5th place at the Cowboy Jamboree last fall, our jaws dropped. The rising junior had produced many respectable performances in prior seasons, but she had posted nothing indicative of a top-five finish against the field that she was facing.

And luckily, that wasn't a fluke.

Stearns only impressed us again with her 3rd place finish at the Nuttycombe Invitational in mid-October. After that showing, we knew that this Lumberjack star was the real deal.

Things only improved from there as Stearns continued to finish among the leaders any time she raced. After a victory at the BIG Sky XC Championships and a 2nd place finish at the Mountain Regional XC Championships, Stearns was on track to have the race of her life at the NCAA XC Championships.

Which is exactly what happened.

In Stillwater, Oklahoma, the Lumberjack star bumped elbows with the best of the best in only her second appearance at the cross country national meet. And in the end, she thrived, securing a monumental 4th place finish. Stearns didn’t need an aggressive race plan to challenge for a top-five spot. Instead, she relied on the same race plan that she had utilized all season long: run within herself.

As we enter the 2023 cross country season, we do need to note that we haven’t seen Stearns race since finishing 11th over 5000 meters at the indoor national meet. That is largely why we didn't have her cracking the top-five in our preseason rankings.

But make no mistake, this Lumberjack ace has given us zero reason to believe that her 2022 fall campaign was a fluke. She did, after all, run 15:33 for 5000 meters back in December.

Stearns is a veteran of Coach Mike Smith’s program and if we have learned anything from watching his athletes develop over the years, it's that we know Stearns will be chomping at the bit to prove herself at the national meet once again.

5. Olivia Markezich, Senior, Notre Dame

What an absolutely incredible year for Notre Dame’s Olivia Markezich. Four All-American honors were earned by the Fighting Irish veteran across three seasons, but the one really stands out is Markezich’s comeback victory in the steeplechase at the outdoor national meet.

The Notre Dame ace is one of the most dynamic athletes in the country. She has the ability to throw down a 4:34 mile time, but run has also run 15:33 (5k) on the other end of the racing spectrum. And no matter what race scenario she's in at any distance, Markezich has found a way to succeed -- and that's exceptionally rare.

After finishing 11th overall at the 2021 NCAA XC Championships, Markezich saw even more success in 2022. An 8th place finish on her home course at the Joe Piane Invitational and a 17th place finish at Nuttycombe gave the Fighting Irish low-stick the confidence she needed heading into the postseason.

Markezich’s 3rd place showing against a dominant NC State roster at the ACC Championships and her win at the Great Lakes Regional XC Championships set her up for what would be an outstanding performance on the national stage.

Racing like a true veteran, the rising senior cracked the top-10 at the 2022 NCAA XC Championships and recorded an 8th place finish. That, however, was just the beginning for Markezich. After running 8:50 for 3000 meters in December, the Notre Dame ace would earn a runner-up finish in that same event at the NCAA Indoor Championships.

And if that wasn't enough, this Fighting Irish ace went undefeated during the spring months during the NCAA season. She won the steeplechase national title and ran the NCAA #3 all-time mark of 9:25 in the process.

Then, at the USA Championships, Markezich placed 4th overall, throwing down an insane time of 9:17 over the barriers. That performance doesn't officially count towards the NCAA record books, but it does make her the third-fastest collegiate steeplechaser in NCAA history.

As she enters her senior season, Markezich has shown that patience pays off. She has risen to the top of the NCAA and seems to still be making significant jumps in her fitness as recently as three weeks ago. If this South Bend star can translate her recent success to the grass and build on it, then...just how close to Tuohy and Valby can she get?

4. Kelsey Chmiel, Senior, NC State

Find us someone with more experience on the national stage than NC State’s Kelsey Chmiel.

We’ll wait.

Chmiel is a veteran on the cross country course and has proven herself to be a top-tier talent more times than we can count. Her resume is highlighted by four All-American honors on the grass, but it’s really the way that she has done it that speaks to Chmiel’s talent.

The New York native came into NC State as one of the nation's top recruits out of high school back in 2019. And during her freshman year, she wasn’t daunted by racing at the "Big Dance" where she finished 22nd place overall.

As a sophomore, Chmiel ran the 5k at the 2021 NCAA Indoor Championships two days prior to finishing 9th place overall at the 2021 NCAA Winter XC Championships. And when the fall of 2021 rolled around, Chmiel continued to get even better with her 6th place finish on the national stage.

And then there was last year where Chmiel left us guessing as to whether or not she was redshirting. But then she toed the line for the Nuttycombe Invitational where she finished runner-up before earning a massive 3rd place finish at the cross country national meet.

It’s hard not to root for Kelsey Chmiel, mainly because she has done everything that you could realistically ask someone to do. Top finishes on competitive stages are routine for this Wolfpack ace and she can handle whatever her opponents are thrown at her. And in all of this, she has somehow gotten better every year since she's been in the NCAA.

If there is a single critique that we can offer for Chmiel, it's that the Wolfpack star didn't have her sharpest season ever on the outdoor oval this past spring. That may be the difference between her being ranked at TSR #4 and TSR #3.

Even so, this is going to be Chmiel’s final cross country season with her NC State teammates. And given the way that she has shown up for them in past few seasons, don’t expect anything to change for the NCAA XC Championship veteran.

3. Hilda Olemomoi, Sophomore, Alabama

During her freshman year, Hilda Olemomoi had an advantage.

She had three top-level Alabama teammates who showed her the ropes of what it takes to be one of the best. The rising sophomore catapulted straight to the top during her rookie season, never finishing any worse than 6th place at any given meet. And with her first year of competition behind her, this Alabama ace seems to be a good fit for our TSR #3 spot.

Olemomoi was excellent throughout the fall of 2022. The Crimson Tide star was racing alongside teammates Mercy Chelangat, Flomena Asekol and Amaris Tyynismaa week-in and week-out. Her 3rd place finishes at Joe Piane and the SEC XC Championships solidified her as one to watch as we entered the NCAA XC Championships.

On a cold day in Oklahoma, the Alabama star kept her composure when Florida’s Parker Valby opened up some distance between herself and the field. Olemomoi remained with the pack on the hilly course and that patience paid off as she recorded a 6th place finish in her first appearance at the cross country national meet.

The indoor and outdoor track seasons were just as successful for Olemomoi as she earned All-American honors over 3000 meters and 5000 meters as well as the 10,000 meters during the spring months. And after seeing her produce incredible PRs of 8:45 (3k) and 15:17 (5k), it seems safe to say that the Alabama sophomore can contend with (almost) anyone.

And if she was able to do that in her first full year in the NCAA, imagine what she can do in year two with valuable experience and plenty of remaining upside.

This season will look very different upfront for the Alabama women as Tyynismaa and Flomena have transferred and Chelangat has graduated. But Olemomoi is now expected to be joined by incoming freshman, Doris Cherop.

Despite the turnover at the top of Alabama's lineup, Olemomoi has the potential to legitimately challenge Parker Valby and maybe Katelyn Tuohy if she takes one more step up in her fitness. That's admittedly asking a lot, but in terms of raw fitness, she's probably the most realistic candidate to join that tier.

2. Parker Valby, Junior, Florida

Florida’s Parker Valby has no fear.

The Gator superstar isn’t afraid to take any race from the gun as she dares anyone to go with her. She employed that tactic numerous times throughout last fall. And even though she wasn't at 100% on the track this past year, she still found success with that approach.

Last fall, Valby was healthy from start to finish. After opening up her season with a dominant 64-second win at the Arturo Barrios Invitational, the Florida Gator took down a deep field at the SEC XC Championships and cruised through the South Regional XC Championships.

At that point, Valby’s win difference was at a head-turning average of 30 seconds.

Valby's name was in every conversation we had regarding who could win the NCAA XC Championship title. We knew it was going to come down to a duel between Valby and Katelyn Tuohy, but both women brought different strengths to the course.

In Stillwater, Oklahoma, the Gator superstar did what she had done all season long: go hard from the gun. Valby clearly wanted to break the field open early-on and she was doing a fine job until there was a half-mile remaining.

At that point, Tuohy charged up the final hill, blowing past Valby who wasn’t able to respond. Even so, the Gator superstar held on for 2nd place, producing one of the greatest silver medal performances that we have ever seen at the NCAA XC Championships.

But that was the fall. And since then, there has been a major point of concern regarding Valby as we head into the 2023 cross country season...is she healthy?

When this Gator superstar is healthy, we know that she is more than capable of pushing from the front and winning races. However, the Florida stud is also susceptible to the injury bug. She wasn’t at 100% health during the winter or spring months and she even mentioned how she still wasn't entirely healthy after the outdoor national meet.

And yet, despite all of that, she was still able to win the 5k national title at the NCAA Outdoor Championships back in June. That is ultimately why we have opted to keep her at TSR #2 in our preseason rankings rather than TSR #3 or TSR #4 -- she's still dominant even when she's not entirely healthy.

Even so, it will likely take Valby being at full-strength to contend for the individual NCAA XC Championship title this fall. Tuohy is not going to be any easier to defeat. But if Valby does return to top form and if she is pushed to a new level by Florida's newest transfer haul, then maybe, just maybe, an upset win for NCAA gold isn't out of the question.

1. Katelyn Tuohy, Junior, NC State

How do you not rank the reigning cross country national champion at TSR #1?

NC State star Katelyn Tuohy has been an All-American three times on the grass. She has finished 24th (winter 2021), 15th (fall 2021) and 1st (2022) in her last three appearances on this stage. But at this point, the only way she can show improvement on the grass is by winning her second cross country title by a larger margin than last year.

She's just been that good.

What we saw out of Tuohy during the 2022-2023 academic year was beyond incredible. In fact, it was historic. Tuohy backed up her cross country title with wins over 3000 meters and 5000 meters at the NCAA Indoor Championships. She also ran new collegiate records in everything from the mile to the 3k to the 5k.

Although she faltered at the outdoor national meet, fading to 7th place in the 1500 meter finals (and not toeing the line for the 5k), we aren’t too worried about the Wolfpack runner heading into the fall. What we saw from her in June was clearly a fluke and no one should be doubting her abilities.

Tuohy has everything you could possibly want in an elite cross country runner. She has a lethal kick, holds great in-race awareness and now boasts valuable experience. For example, at last year’s cross country national meet, Tuohy wasn’t fazed by Parker Valby opening up a gap on the field. Instead, the NC State ace bided her time and when she came up on Valby, she shut down any chance of her competitor responding.

After that race, we couldn't help but wonder...how do you beat someone like Tuohy? She has risen to be a masterful tactician and her fitness is so far beyond what anyone else in the country could possibly produce.

It’s hard to find any weaknesses in Tuohy’s resume or racing ability given her countless victories and stellar times, but it will be interesting to see how she rebounds from a disappointing NCAA Outdoor Championships showing.

Still, at the end of the day, this NC State phenom has proven to be one of the best NCAA runners in history. And if she sticks around long enough, she may end up being the best ever.

A lot of pressure will be on Tuohy’s shoulders this fall to not only win a second individual cross country title, but to also lead the Wolfpack women to a third-consecutive team title. If Tuohy can put the end of her track season behind her and regroup this fall, then we don't see why this all-time superstar won't dominate yet again.