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TSR's 2023 Girls High School XC Top-10 Team Rankings: Early Season Edition
- Donald Speas
- Sep 19, 2023
- 24 min read
Written by Donald Speas, additional commentary and edits via Garrett Zatlin
NOTE: Current rankings are based on preseason expectations, projected growth, program history (partially) and recent performances. While some cross country teams may have recently beaten other programs ranked ahead of them, TSR factors in seasonal consistency, the athletes who were actually entered in those races and how much room for improvement we suspect a certain team has.
1. Niwot Cougars (CO)
The Niwot girls' cross country team looks poised for another dominant fall campaign despite losing their standout athlete, Madison Shults. As the defending champions from the competitive Southwest region, the Cougars are well aware of the stalwart opponents who they have faced and will face later this year, specifically Air Academy (TSR #2) and Lone Peak (TSR #3).
Despite the loss of Shults, this team has an impressive roster of returning runners, including five girls from last year's runner-up squad at the national meet. Headlining the program is sophomore Addison Ritzenhein who comes from a notable running background (yes, that Ritzenhein).
The star low-stick's 18th place finish at last year's NXN Championships speaks volumes about her potential, especially given the adverse weather conditions that she performed well in. Her improvement are a good sign for her team as we dive deeper into 2023.
Another key runner to watch out for is Olivia Alessandrini who delivered an exceptional 10:24 (3200) performance during the spring track season. With a 5k PR of 18:09, it's clear that she has the potential to be a significant force in Niwot’s lineup.
The Prok sisters, Mia and Anna, are also expected to play crucial roles in their team's success later this fall. With impressive 5k times of 17:39 and 18:03 from last year, as well as notable track performances of 5:01 and 5:15 for 1600 meters, this duo brings valuable experience and speed to the table.
Adding to the mix is junior Bella Nelson who may not have competed on the outdoor oval, but displayed her ability to be an impact scorer at the cross country national meet, finishing 48th last year. Her previous experience at the national level will undoubtedly prove beneficial as she vies for a spot in this team's top-five.
The final two spots of this varsity lineup are likely to be filled by senior Cayden Justice and sophomore Avalon Beltran. Both runners have similar PRs of 18:25 and 18:29 over 5000 meters, showcasing their potential for improvement after narrowly missing out on last year's varsity lineup.
Niwot has had a few races so far this year, mainly just smaller meets and rust-busters, including one where Niwot runners took the top-13 spots. However, their most recent race of the season, the St. Vrain XC Invitational, had some serious competition.
Despite their praise-worthy foes, Niwot made quick work of the field, scoring 23 points. Again, this field was a strong one with one of our "Just Missed" teams (Mountain Vista) coming in 2nd place and a very solid Fossil Ridge squad finishing in 3rd.
The only cause for “concern” in that race (which feels like an exaggerated term in this scenario) was that the Cougars' fifth scorer, Sarah Perkins, was about 25 seconds behind their fourth runner. And yet, this team averaged 18:16 for 5000 meters. We also know that Perkins is capable of being a great piece for this lineup after emerging as a top finisher on multiple big-time stages in the fall of 2021. She could be due for an exciting fall campaign, making this. team that much more dangerous.
The team's returning top-five holds a 5k average of 17:51 from last season. Their time spread of just 21 seconds is a testament to the depth and consistency of this group. Competitive times, combined with their national meet experience, make them strong favorites for the national title later this fall.
2. Air Academy Kadets / Academy (CO)
Air Academy's cross country team will face formidable challenges in the highly competitive Southwest region later this year, although they should be up for the challenge. After all, they return all seven runners from last year's team which finished 7th at Nike Cross Nationals.
Leading the charge for Air Academy in 2023 is the talented Bethany Michalak who finished an outstanding 3rd place individually at the 2022 national meet, breaking the 17-minute barrier with a career-defining performance.
Michalak's consistent performances throughout her 2022 fall campaign showcased her abilities and upside for this fall. In fact, I'd consider the NC State commit to be in contention for the individual national title in a few months time.
That said, Air Academy's was heavily reliant on Michalak last year; they didn't have any other runners under 18 minutes for 5000 meters at NXN.
Sophomore Tessa Walters came the closest to doing so, clocking a time of 18:02 for 39th place. And while Walters' performance was commendable, her impressive track times of 4:59 in the mile and 10:55 over 3200 meters (at altitude) suggest that she can earn a stronger finish this year on a course that she is now familiar with.
Sophomore Jordan Banta offers an intriguing x-factor for the team. With a 5k PR of 17:30, her 18:46 mark from Nike Cross Nationals leads us to believe that she could produce a better result and be even more impactful at that meet later this fall.
Her spring track times of 5:03 (mile) and 2:16 (800) show promise, but the greatest value on Banta's resume is her 17:30 (5k) PR, especially if she can replicate something like that again.
The team's other two juniors, Emily Beers and Olivia Chura, both contributed to the team's success last year. Beers finished higher at NXN, taking 89th place (18:46), compared to Chura's 140th place (19:20) at the same meet.
And yet, despite their times, Chura's seasonal best performance was a promising 11-second improvement, showcasing her potential for further growth. Air Academy will need Chura to make a big leap in fitness to match this ranking, but what she produced last year suggests that that's plenty possible.
Lauren Myers, the team's expected sixth runner, has shown glimpses of potential. She's still waiting to have that breakout season where she becomes a high-impact scorer.
So far this fall, the Kadets have shown that they can absolutely end up on the podium. Following a couple of low-stakes rust-busters, this squad traveled to California for the Woodbridge XC Classic where they pulled off a massive win over a handful of other teams ranked in our top-10.
It's time that we start to view Air Academy not as a team with a shot at the podium, but as a team with a shot at winning the whole thing.
To improve their chances, the key lies in the performances of their third, fourth, and fifth scorers. If those young women can consistently clock mid-to-low 18-minute times, and close the gap with the leaders, then Air Academy stands a real chance of challenging the top-three teams in the country and securing a coveted podium position at the national meet.
It will be a challenging task, but with a strong collective effort, Air Academy could rise to new heights and establish themselves as a true contender in the powerhouse Southwest region.
3. Lone Peak Knights (UT)
Last year, Lone Peak's cross country team was the surprise sensation of the season. But this year, they won't be catching anyone off guard as they are returning their entire top-seven from Nike Cross Nationals!
Leading the charge for this team in 2023 is senior Andie Aagard who transitions from being a mountain biker to an elite distance talent during the fall months.
In her first year of running, she astounded the competition, clocking an impressive 16:51 (5k) PR. She secured a remarkable 12th place at the NXN Championships and won the NXR Southwest individual title.
However, the main question looming over Lone Peak is the state of Aagard's current form. She opted to focus on mountain biking, eschewing track competitions entirely. While her mountain biking prowess is not my expertise, some investigation on mtbdata.com and discussions with those in the mountain biking community suggest that she is in excellent shape.
Behind Aagard, the battle for the second position in this lineup is likely going to be between Boston Bybee and Addie Meldrum.
Bybee appears to have the edge for that secondary scoring spot (at least for now) due to her impressive 10:43 (3200) PR, something that she achieved at elevation during the spring. On the other hand, Meldrum exhibits exceptional foot-speed, leading the team in both the 800 meters (2:12) and the 1600 meters (4:50). She also has a proven ability to perform well at crucial moments, as evidenced by her performances at the Utah Track & Field State Championships.
The other two scoring spots in Lone Peak's top-five are likely going to be filled by sophomores Brielle Nilsson and Anna Bybee. Both girls showed tremendous promise during the cross country season, running 5k PRs of 18:07 and 18:19, respectively.
Admittedly, they were a bit quieter on the oval earlier this year, particularly over 3200 meters. Even so, they have great potential and could play significant roles in their team's overall success later this fall. On paper, they offer tremendous scoring stability and great upside.
We'll be curious to see what this team's backend (after their top-five) will look like later this fall. Lone Peak has done a nice job of developing their runners over the years and that could come in handy as we attempt to figure out what the Knights' supporting cast will look like.
So far this year, Lone Peak has taken a slight step back, suffering a loss at the hands of one of our "Just Missed" teams, American Fork. That loss, however, did come with a caveat: The Knights were missing their top runner, Andie Aagard.
Aagard's absence temporarily concerned us, but then she appeared in Lone Peak’s win at the Border Wars XC Invite. She actually won that race and looks to not have lost any fitness since last fall.
The road to Nike Cross Nationals is never without obstacles. Lone Peak's success will depend on various factors, including Aagard's form, the performance of their 2-3-4-5 runners and the potential emergence of a reliable sixth runner for insurance purposes.
With the talent that they possess, and the experience gained from last year's surprises, Lone Peak remains a formidable team that could be a strong contender for the title. However, they will need to navigate the challenges that lie ahead and be prepared for any unforeseen circumstances to realize their dreams of championship glory.
4. Saratoga Springs Blue Streaks / Kinect (NY)
The reigning national champions, Saratoga Springs, have quite the challenge ahead of them this year after losing the Wheeler twins, two runners who were instrumental to this team's success in 2022.
The departure of those two athletes has caused this team to drop just a bit in our rankings relative to where they finished last fall. However, one thing that the Saratoga Springs coaching duo, Linda and Art Kranick, excel at is reloading their team with talent.
This team's core from last year consists of three seniors who competed at the national meet and showcased their abilities: Emily Bush (30th), Alycia Hart (42nd), and Anya Belisle (59th). While these three have room for improvement, it wouldn't be surprising to see two (or even all three) of them finish in the top-30 at the national meet.
However, Saratoga Springs' final placement at the NXN Championships will largely be determined by the performance of their fourth and fifth runners.
The x-factor for this team lies with two former middle schoolers who competed for the Blue Streaks at Nike Cross Nationals last fall. That pair of now-freshmen, Heidi Berglund and Natalie Wilding, will now find themselves in crucial scoring positions in 2023.
Their 5k PRs of 19:00 and 19:19, respectively, indicate that they will need to make significant improvements if Saratoga Springs hopes to repeat as national champions. Of course, rising talents as good as those youngsters often have the potential to pay significant dividends come December if they carry their youth-based upside to the following year.
And we think they can.
If both Berglund and Wilding can make substantial strides towards breaking, or even approaching, the 18-minute barrier for 5000 meters, then this team's outlook drastically changes. Their performances at the national meet will be pivotal in determining whether Saratoga Springs can secure a spot inside the top-five.
So far, Saratoga Springs has only seriously competed in one meet this year, the V-V-S Invitational. At that meet, they met expectations, beating a very good Bethlehem Central squad by 34 points. Sure, we didn’t learn anything new about the Blue Streaks, but they are certainly on a path to success.
As the season continues to unfold, many eyes will be on Saratoga Springs to see how they cope with the loss of key athletes and how their young talent develops. While repeating as national champions is undoubtedly a challenging feat, the team's potential, experience and proven coaching staff makes them a formidable challenge for any top teams in the race for the national title.
5. JSerra Catholic Lions (CA)
The good news about JSerra Catholic is that they have a strong foundation to build upon for the upcoming cross country season. The fact that they return their top-five runners from a team that qualified for Nike Cross Nationals last year is a huge indication of their potential.
Another factor which alludes to the sky-high ceiling of this squad is the amount of freshmen on their roster last year who have since grown and developed as sophomores. If a few of those underclassmen step up, then JSerra will be a great team.
However, their performance at the national meet last year, where they placed 21st out of 22 teams without any runners inside the top-100, highlights the need for improvement. Of course, the Lions seemingly recognized this and later made significant progress on the track.
With five athletes breaking the five-minute barrier in the mile and two runners achieving a mark of 10:50 or faster for 3200 meters, it's evident that the overall fitness of this team has improved by a substantial margin.
In addition to the promising developments at the longer distances, Georgia Jeanneret has had a lot of recent national-caliber success over 800 meters.
However, it’s not Jeanneret who is the team's top runner on the grass. That title belongs to junior Brynn Garcia who holds PRs of 16:09 (three mile) and 17:55 (5k) in addition to a 138th place finish at NXN in 2022. While she hasn’t quite reached those times so far this year, she did put together a very good race at Woodbridge, finishing as the top scorer for her team and coming in 31st place.
At Woodbridge, the only other runner to finish inside the top-40 for the Lions was sophomore Summer Wilson who not only finished 39th, but perhaps more impressively, had a phenomenal runner-up result at the ASICS Cool Breeze Invitational earlier this month.
We mentioned that JSerra had two runners inside the top-40 at Woodbridge this year, but none inside the top-30. And while that statement may be true, the overall scoring potency of this team was actually a bit top-heavy. That’s because the Lions' third scorer (sophomore Kaylah Tasser) and fourth scorer (junior Anne Elise Packard) were right behind Wilson, finishing in 42nd and 43rd place, respectively.
It’s very hard to find this kind of pack-running at this caliber of competition and team’s almost always become a threat if they possess this skill. Although the gap formed between the 2-3-4 group and fifth runner Reese Holley (59th) was a little larger, it was by no means bad. They did, after all, secure an impressive top-five spread of 25 seconds!
This JSerra team has really shown up and proven that they are a serious contender for a top-three finish at the NXN Championships this year and that they can go head-to-head with any team in the country.
Keep your eye on this program. Who knows what other surprises they have in store for us...
6. Buchanan Bears / Clovis (CA)
Buchanan's cross country roster is not lacking in talent or potential. And while they do lose their first and fourth scorers from last year, they still retain the other five which, in theory, forms a solid core that the Bears can rally around.
Assuming all five of those runners make the travel roster, Buchanan's team will be composed of juniors Elle Lomeli (44th at NXN) and Sierra Cornett (54th), sophomores Kynzlee Buckley (76th) and Tayler Torosian (98th) as well as senior Avery Hutchinson (144th).
Buckley and Lomeli can almost certainly be better than what their national meet results from 2022 suggest. They did, after all, flexed their fitness at the extremely competitive 2022 Woodbridge XC Classic (not 2023), finishing 11th and 13th, respectively.
For Lomeli, she would carry that momentum to the track and later produce times of 4:46 (1600) and 10:39 (3200) earlier this year. All of that indicated that she was in top form heading into the fall months of 2023.
Cornett and Torosian also demonstrated promise on the oval with Cornett running 4:53 and 10:52 over the mile and 3200 meters, respectively. Meanwhile, Torosian ran 4:57 for 1600 meters earlier this spring which is a decent complement to her 17:47 (5k) PR -- a time that placed her 8th at the 2022 CIF State XC Championships.
Senior Avery Hutchinson, the younger sister of last year's top ace, is another crucial member of this program. She has made solid strides in her fitness lately, dropping her 1600 meter PR from 5:11 to 5:06. But regardless of her progression, Hutchinson's experience and leadership will undoubtedly benefit this team as they navigate the challenges of the postseason.
The Bears have only seriously competed once at this point in the season, but we got to learn a lot about this team and take away some insight.
Buchanan traveled down to the Woodbridge XC Classic last weekend where they earned a solid 3rd place finish. It was mostly expected for them to lose to Air Academy, but seeing them lose to an in-state foe, JSerra Catholic, was not something that we predicted.
The good news is that we think Taylor Torosian could be even stronger in the future. In fact, the entire top-three of this program left room for improvement this past weekend. And while that would concern some, we only see promising upside for a team that was within reasonable striking distance of JSerra Catholic in a field of this size.
Buchanan's lineup has a lot of potential, particularly when their top-two athletes are performing at a high level. They also have a solid fourth runner. However, it's challenging to envision a scenario where this current roster can surpass 5th place at the national meet.
Nevertheless, they are likely to be in the top-10 this fall, nationally, given the strength of their lineup -- and they can certainly play spoiler to some of the teams ranked ahead of them.
7. Cuthbertson Cavaliers (NC)
Nobody is going to accuse Cuthbertson of dodging competition. I mean, how many east coast high school teams are willing to fly across the country to California for a Friday night meet?
Luckily, the Cavaliers' recent trip to the Woodbridge XC Classic proved invaluable for them, resulting in a 3rd place finish. More importantly, it gave them a test against many of the teams that they'll eventually race at Nike Cross Nationals at the end of the season.
Leading the Cavaliers this fall is senior Stella Kermes who placed 6th at Woodbridge, runner-up at NXR (only losing to the eventual national champion, Irene Riggs) and 31st at the NXN Championships.
Out of those performances, I would say that Kermes' NXN performance was the "worst" of those results -- which is wild considering how solid of an effort that was! Even so, she's definitely got the ability to shave a few points off of Cuthbertson's score come December.
But what if I told you that this past spring, Kermes was only Cuthbertson’s third-best runner over the 3200 meter distance? One of the girls ahead of her is current Wake Forest runner, Alyssa Preisano who has since graduated. However, the second name is where things gets a bit more interesting.
In addition to Kermes, Cuthbertson also has the HOKA Festival of Miles champion who sports a 4:41 mile PR. I am, of course, talking about Charlotte Bell.
Although Bell only recently came into the national spotlight this past spring, she is by no means a bad cross country runner. After all, she placed 57th at the 2022 NXN Championships and has gone sub-18 for 5000 meters. She is another runner who I can confidently predict will cut-off significant points of her performances from last year.
While Bell and Kermes may grab the headlines as the team's top runners, we can’t overlook senior Justine Preisano who sports a 17:46 (5k) PR. She has had a couple solid placements on the grass and also ran an excellent time of 4:51 for the mile this past spring.
Unlike her aforementioned teammates, Preisano seemed to favor the mile distance more relative to her teammates who focused on the 3200 meters. Even so, Preisano is a key link between Cuthbertson's top-two athletes and the next group of runners.
The Cavaliers' fourth returner from last year (based on PRs) is Lily Fierick, an 18:53 (5k XC) runner. And while we certainly believe in what Fierick can bring to the table, we should note that she only raced twice last fall (the latest being in early September) and only three times on the track (her last appearance coming in late March).
Regardless, when she does race, Fierick offers great value. At the very least, she can provide solid depth, but also emerge as a steady and solid backend scorer.
The next runner who we’ll cover is sophomore Josie Schihl who has NXN experience, but unfortunately finished in 195th place on that stage last year. But that was simply a bad day and bad timing.
In reality, Schihl is better than that. Her 19:00 (5k) PR is very solid and her improvement will be a key indicator for how the Cavaliers stack up among the rest of our top-10 teams.
The final returning member of Cuthbertson's lineup with national meet experience is junior Ava Walters. She may have only broken the 20-minute barrier over 5000 meters once, but Walters has invaluable national meet experience and has appeared to maintain her fitness throughout the spring months.
Just like her teammate Josie Schihl, the development of Walters will be a key factor in how Cuthbertson ultimately performs this fall.
This season has gone almost exactly as planned for Cuthbertson. They were victorious against a solid Mount Tabor team in what appeared to be more of a low-key effort earlier this fall. After that, they traveled to California for the Woodbridge XC Classic and finished in a somewhat expected 5th place.
So far, they are running roughly as well as we projected them to.
8. Southlake Carroll Dragons / Carroll (TX)
Southlake Carroll in Texas is renowned for their lightning-fast home course, Bob Jones Park, where sub-17 minute clockings on the grass are not uncommon for high school girls.
Oh, and their actual cross country team is pretty good, too.
This fall, Southlake Carroll looks poised to perform exceptionally well with a strong returning roster from last year's impressive 11th place finish at Nike Cross Nationals. Additionally, they have four more runners who have achieved sub-19 minute personal bests over 5000 meters last year, further showcasing their depth as a team.
One of the challenges faced by Southlake Carroll at the 2022 national meet was the absence of a true low-stick runner as their best performer finished in 49th place. This season, two seniors, Alexandra Walsh and Sylvia Schwedler, are both serious contenders to fill that role.
Schwedler, who had a solid 71st place finish at NXN last year, has demonstrated her capabilities on the grass. Despite seemingly shutting her season down this past spring, she managed to set personal bests in both the 1600 meters (5:10) and the 3200 meters (11:05).
While those times may not reflect her full potential, it's her performances on the grass -- owning marks of 16:47 (three miles) and 17:27 (5k) -- where she excels, and she has shown that she can handle pressure.
The other low-stick option, Alexandra Walsh, started last year strong with impressive performances, including a 4th place finish at Woodbridge, a 10:28 PR over 3200 meters as well as a 17:05 PR for 5000 meters on the grass.
Unfortunately, Walsh faced a minor decline mid-season in 2022 and was ultimately not in Southlake Carroll’s varsity lineup at the national meet. That, however, is something that we're saying is an anomaly. Her performances on the track earlier this year displayed better consistency, running between her 1600 meter PR of 5:02 and 5:07 in most of her races.
This season, we’ve seen two sides of Southlake Carroll: The side that loses a meet to another team on their home course (albeit, it was to our TSR #10 team, Lucas Lovejoy) and the Southlake Carroll squad that placed 5th at Woodbridge, beating our TSR #9 team and seriously competing with our TSR #7 squad.
In fact, if it hadn’t been for Woodbridge this past weekend, then I can guarantee you that these rankings would look much different then how they do right now. In two weeks, at the Chile Pepper XC Festival, we’ll be lucky enough to see a highly anticipated rematch between the Dragons and Lucas Lovejoy.
Southlake Carroll's strength is their depth which will make it challenging for them to fall far down the standings. However, their fate will largely depend on the performances of whoever their low-sticks end up being.
9. Flower Mound Jaguars (TX)
Flower Mound's cross country team is entering a new season with high hopes after an impressive 6th place finish at last year's national meet. And what makes their chances of standing atop the podium in December even more realistic is that they only lost one runner from their 2022 squad.
This team's strength lies in its formidable three-headed monster, led by twin seniors Nicole and Samantha Humphries, as well as junior Alex Fox. These three athletes have proven themselves on the national stage, throwing down impressive finishes at the 2022 edition of Nike Cross Nationals.
On that stage, Nicole Humphries secured a remarkable 13th place finish while Samantha Humphries finished slightly ahead in 11th place. Meanwhile, Fox showed her aerobic prowess by finishing 32nd. This trio was also showcasing their speed this past spring, posting impressive mile PRs of 4:41, 4:46 and 4:50, respectively, at the HOKA Festival of Miles.
While the team's top-three runners are undoubtedly strong, the Jaguars' success will ultimately rely on the performance of their fourth and fifth scorers. And while the depth of this team might not be as sturdy compared to a few others, Flower Mound still has a few potential contenders to fill those spots.
Junior Claire Bettencourt and senior Ava Cole, along with senior Natalie Spangher, are the likely runners to fill the team’s 4-5-6 positions. Both Spangher and Cole were part of last year's NXN squad, finishing 115th and 149th, respectively. Their spring performances have shown promising improvements with their 3200-meter personal bests dropping to 11:31 and 11:14. It's evident that these runners thrive in longer races, especially Cole who excels as the distance increases.
On the other hand, Claire Bettencourt has demonstrated that she excels in middle distance events, posting impressive times of 5:12 (1600) and 2:20 (800) this past spring. We think those marks represent a substantial fitness improvement over her 20:16 (5k) PR from last fall and suggests that she has the potential to be a strong asset to her team this fall.
So far this season, Flower Mound has been solid, but not phenomenal in their races. As expected, Fox and Samantha Humphries have been lights-out at the front of races providing a key low-stick duo that can hang with anyone in the country.
However, there is a lingering question regarding this team: Where is Nicole Humphries?
Last year's 13th place finisher at Nike Cross Nationals has been notably absent from this year's lineup, although senior Natalie Spangher has seriously stepped up her game and has been crucial in stabilizing the middle portion of Flower Mound’s lineup.
We don’t see a world in which the Jaguars end the season on the podium without Nicole Humphries, but it's also too early to panic about her recent absence. We're still in mid-September, after all.
Ultimately, the key to Flower Mound's success will depend on two things. The first is figuring out how close their fifth runner can get to the front group. Last year, the team had a top-five time spread of nearly two minutes which they will undoubtedly try to lower significantly. The second aspect, and perhaps more importantly, is the return of Nicole Humphries, whenever that may be.
If all goes their way, then Flower Mound has a strong chance of finding their way onto the podium at the national meet.
10. Lucas Lovejoy Leopards / Lucas (TX)
We debated putting Lucas Lovejoy at our TSR #10 spot. Over the years, they've often been overshadowed by Texas powerhouse programs like Southlake Carroll and Flower Mound. The departure of Amy Morefield, a standout 17:29 (5k) athlete and the team's top finisher at last year's Nike Cross Nationals, is a significant loss.
However, this year, Lucas Lovejoy will likely be led by a more-than-capable replacement: Amy's younger sister, Sara Morefield. She showed promise last by finishing 109th at Nike Cross Nationals while boasting a 17:39 (5k) PR.
Backing up Morefield are another pair of talented sisters, Camryn and Peyton Benson, who traded the third and fourth positions in this lineup last year. And then there's middle distance-focused senior Kailey Littlefield who is expected to be the fourth runner on this team in 2023. Although she currently holds a 5:01 (1600) personal best, her potential for improvement holds greater promise than some may realize.
Beyond the top-four runners, the competition for the last three varsity spots becomes a bit of a mystery. Several talented athletes are vying for those positions, including sophomores Jocelyn Chapman, Tatum Novicke, Kaylee Martin and Bridget Bernal, along with junior Kate Matthews and senior Kate Carlson. Their performances will not only determine what the backend of this lineup looks like, but how sturdy the scoring support will be.
Texas girls cross country is incredibly interesting this year. Lucas Lovejoy has been on fire so far this season, winning both the Southlake Carroll Meet #1 and the Lovejoy XC Festival. While the Lovejoy XC Festival was a solid field, it wasn’t surprising to see the Leopards win by a commanding 72 points. However, beating Southlake Carroll on their home course is not something that we had on our 2023 bingo card.
We pondered listing the Leopards ahead of Southlake Carroll after that last race, but after last week’s performances, I don’t think we can do that quite yet.
Another encouraging sign for the Leopards is the development of sophomore Camryn Benson, who has already secured a PR by 32 seconds in the 5k this fall. She has formed a perfect complement to future Tulsa Golden Hurricane, Sara Morefield.
Fortunately, fans will be treated to exciting matchups between the Leopards and the aforementioned established Texas powerhouses, Southlake Carroll and Flower Mound. These encounters will surely provide thrilling moments and showcase the potential of Lucas Lovejoy's team as they aim to make their mark on the competitive Texas cross country scene.
Just Missed (in no particular order)
Downers Grove North Trojans (IL)
It always surprises me how many strong cross country teams come from the Greater Chicago Area -- and this year is no different. We considered a few teams from that region for a spot in these rankings, but ultimately, it has been the Downers Grove North Trojans that have emerged as the best of the “Chicagoland” teams.
So far this season, they have key wins over good squads from Elmhurst and Mount Prospect, both of whom the Trojans will see at NXR and the remainder of the regular season.
Downers Grove North is led by the duo of junior McKenzie Willard and sophomore Lily Eddington. Willard is a runner with personal bests of 17:18 (three-mile) and 18:49 (5k). She has been one of the biggest reasons why Downers Grove North has been so good this year.
Her aforementioned 17:18 (three-mile) mark represents a crazy 78-second improvement over 2022 while her 5k time signals an improvement of 105 seconds. She hasn’t yet won a meet yet in her high school cross country career, but we would be surprised if that stays the case for much longer.
Forming the second part of this duo is sophomore Lily Eddington who hasn’t had as drastic of an improvement as her teammate, but nonetheless, has been on a roll this year. She has won two of her three races and has lowered her PRs to 17:22 (three-mile) and 18:26 (5k).
While Downers Grove North’s top duo is strong and full of potential, it's the stability in the middle and backend portions of the Trojans' lineup that has ultimately been the difference in their early-season success.
At the team’s most recent meet, they had an insane top-five time spread of 22 seconds! To make that statistic even more impressive, that time spread occurred in a race with 500 athletes in one race -- and they all finished in between 2nd place and 20th place.
Without Lily Eddington.
The four runners that occupied the 2-3-4-5 spots at their latest meet were senior Sarah Paul and the junior trio of Audrey Casten, Ava Gilley and Alayna Todnem. Paul acts as a great gap between the top duo and the back three, holding a three-mile PR of 17:32 as well as a 5k PR of 19:34.
The aforementioned junior trio is Downers Grove North’s greatest strength. All three girls hold three-mile personal bests within a second of each other (17:40.2 to 17:41.2) and that ability to instantly close out the team’s scoring -- and almost certainly win any tie-breaker before you could snap your fingers -- is incredibly valuable.
Downers Grove North is a formidable opponent with an insane spread -- and they don’t need to travel far to face top competition. Although they may not travel to any “national caliber” meets, that's not a reason for anyone to count them out.
Oh, and the best part? They’ll only be graduating one out of their top-six runners this year….
Portland Jesuit Crusaders / Portland (OR)
The coaching staff at Portland Jesuit has a proven track record of success at the NXN Championships with their boys' team finishing runner-up and their girls' team securing a commendable 12th place finish last year.
Building on that strong performance, this year's girls' team is well-positioned to make a solid improvement. Returning five of their top-seven runners and four of their top-five from last year's squad is a major advantage, giving a good portion of their lineup valuable experience on the national stage.
One key factor that contributed to Portland Jesuit's success last year was their impressive spread of 37 seconds between their top-five runners. However, they lacked a clear front-runner with their top duo finishing 83rd and 87th at Nike Cross Nationals.
While those are respectable finishes, those results are also more typical of third or fourth scorers on teams battling for a top spot in our rankings.
The good news is that Emma Bennett, one of their top runners, showed tremendous improvement in her fitness during the spring season. She clocked impressive times of 4:27 (1500) and 9:57 (3k), marks which bode well for her potential to be a strong front-runner for her team this fall.
The supporting cast for Portland Jesuit has also demonstrated significant progress this year. Maura O’Scannlain ran an excellent 10:56 (3200) mark while seniors Amalie Bell and Liliana Hudnut dropped impressive times of 4:41 (1500) and 10:01 (3k), respectively. These performances indicate positive growth for last year's fourth and fifth scorers at NXN.
Notably, Hudnut's time was only four seconds off Bennett's, which suggests the potential for a strong scoring duo.
The last three spots in this team's varsity seven will likely be filled by senior Audrey O’Neil, sophomore Mimi Thompson and senior Lili Maycock. O'Neil's valuable national meet experience from last year (159th place at NXN) will be instrumental in shoring up the crucial fifth scoring position for this team.
While they may not have had a standout track season, all three of these runners were solid and have the potential to contribute to their team's success in the fall.
So far this fall, Portland Jesuit has yet to truly be tested. They’ve run one meet at the time of writing, the Ash Creek XC Festival, where they won by 55 points and had a team 5k average of 19:00.
The first indication of how this team stacks up in a competitive field will probably come in two weeks at the Nike Portland XC Invitational. Until then, the Crusaders are quietly biding their time and building fitness.
American Fork Cavewomen (UT)
When you combine four runners who consistently run under 19 minutes for 5000 meters, a low-stick runner with top-10 talent and a top-caliber coach who routinely competes in Portland during the first weekend of December, then you get a formidable team.
Despite being renowned for producing exceptional boys athletes like Danny Simmons or BYU star Casey Clinger, this year's American Fork girls' team has the potential to be a strong contender and possibly break into our top-10 later this fall.
Senior Avalon Mecham is a force to be reckoned with on the grass and has previous experience competing at NXN, placing an impressive 15th in 2022. Behind her, the team boasts three solid runners in Sophie Stieger, Natalia Boltz and Alyssa Klienman, all of whom have run under 19 minutes for 5000 meters (on the grass), a remarkable feat at an elevation of 4600 feet.
Additionally, they may have found a potential fifth runner in senior Tori Stratton who has shown glimpses of brilliance on the grass. She also very solid track personal bests of 2:16 (800) and 5:00 (1600).
So far this season, American Fork has been the clear second-best team in Utah and have been right on Lone Peak’s heels. In fact, they actually beat Lone Peak on a tie-breaker at the UIAAA Invitational earlier this season, although that was with a couple of key members of Lone Peak’s team sitting out.
Including that race, the Cavewomen have won four out of five contests this season with only one loss to aforementioned Lone Peak. Recent BYU commit, Avalon Mecham, is a great low-stick with NXN experience while the rest of her team’s supporting cast has seemingly raised up another level. American Forks' top-five time spread has been cut down to roughly a minute.
Honorable Mentions (in no particular order)
Hamilton Southeastern (IN)
Wellesley High Raiders (MA)
Boise Senior Braves (ID)
Olathe West Owls (KS)
Mountain Vista Golden Eagles (CO)
Cardinal Gibbons Crusaders (NC)
