TSR's 2022 Preseason D3 XC Top 10 Rankings (Women): #6 Washington U. Bears

Edits and additional commentary by Garrett Zatlin

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Washington U. finds themselves in a tough spot this fall after losing their top-three finishers from last year's national meet. Their trio of Kiera Olson, Sophie Young and Emma Walter are all gone, a fact that is impossible to overlook as we evaluate this team's chances for postseason success in 2022.

That same scoring trio earned a string of 35th place, 37th place and 40th place All-American finishes at last year's national meet. And when the results were tallied, those women led the Bears to a 5th place postseason result.

But not all hope is lost. We have to remember that this team is a perennial powerhouse at Division Three level and that they always seem to restock on top-tier talent year after year.

And in 2022, they will once again depend on another trio of seniors to help them break the top-10 at the national meet and maintain their history of excellence.

* * *

After a few early-season rust-busters to begin their 2021 cross country season, the Washington U. women toed the line against the always-talented Wartburg Knights at the Dan Huston Invitational.

The midwest clash would prove to be one of the best cross country battles of the regular season, regardless of division. That's because the two teams actually TIED for the win at 30 points each.

However, it was Wartburg getting the edge over the Bears for the tie-breaking win.

Emily Konkus was excellent, emerging with a 4th place individual result while her teammates Emma Walter, Sophie Young and Lindsay Ott put together an excellent string of performances, going 6-7-8. Teammate Kiera Olson would close out the scoring with a 10th place finish.

However, with Aubrie Fisher, Riley Mayer and Carina Collet going 1-2-5 in the overall results (with an unattached runner in 3rd), the Knights simply had greater firepower in comparison to the Bears. That would ultimately give the Wartburg women the tie-breaking win.

Regardless of the end result, Washington U. had to be encouraged. The Wartburg women were a dominant powerhouse viewed favorably by the rest of the NCAA throughout last fall. If they were able to tie with the Knights in what was essentially a one-vs-one matchup, then that could only be a good thing for their postseason hopes.

But before the Washington U. women ventured to the postseason, they stopped at the Augustana Interregional Invitational. There, they battled Wartburg once more as well as a few other D3 powerhouses such as the University of Chicago, Pomona-Pitzer, Calvin and Hope.

However, this result ended less favorably for the Bears.

Kiera Olson earned a pleasantly surprising 5th place finish to lead her team while Sophie Young also stepped up in a major way, locking down a 9th place result. Even Avery McCammon had the best race of her season by securing a promising 12th place finish.

Through three runners, Washington U. didn't just look good, they looked great. But with no one else finishing inside the top-30, the scoring support was simply not enough to allow this team to break into the top-three of the team standings.

Instead, Washington U. fell to Pomona-Pitzer (the winners) and Wartburg (the runner-ups) before defeating U. of Chicago on a tie-breaker for 3rd place.

There was, however, a catch.

Emily Konkus, Emma Walter and Lindsay Ott didn't toe the line for this race. That was three of their top-five women from the Dan Huston Invitational. For this team to still take down a handful of highly respected D3 distance programs spoke to the incredible depth of this roster.

In the postseason, Washington U. would continue to thrive. The UAA XC Championships turned out to be a breeze with their full lineup, going 4-5-6-7-10 and easily defeating U. Chicago by 32 points for the conference title.

We would also see a very similar lineup structure at the Midwest Regional XC Championships, although Wartburg would take home the title. Still, that result was largely negligible, especially with what lied ahead for the Bears.

Like we mentioned earlier, the national meet proved to be the pinnacle of Washington U.'s 2021 season. Many of their women peaked perfectly with Olson, Young and Walter going 35-37-40 while Emily Konkus was painstakingly close to an All-American honor with a 41st place finish of her.

Through four runners, the Bears were flat-out incredible. Boasting three All-Americans and having the first woman out from that same honor was simply fantastic. And with Lindsday Ott placing 76th, the Washington U. women had to believe that they raced to their full potential, or at least close to it.

That's why it felt so odd to see this team finish just 5th place overall on the national stage.

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At this point in our analysis, you can already see how important runners like Kiera Olson, Sophie Young and Emma Walter were last fall. They were the main source of high-impact scoring that lifted this team into a truly elite tier during the 2021 cross country season.

For most teams, losing three All-Americans would be a devastating blow that would be nearly impossible for a one program to rebound from in the span of a single year.

Well, the good news for the Washington U. is that they aren't like "most teams". Throughout last fall, this roster should incredibly encouraging signs of extensive depth and interchangeable varsity scoring.

They also have one or two key low-sticks who will continue to offer scoring sparks.

Emily Konkus will be the clear leading woman for Washington U. this fall. She placed 4th at UAA XC Championship last year which she followed up with another great performance at the Midwest Regional XC Championships where she finished 9th.

And of course, like we mentioned earlier, she was the first one out of All-American honors at last year's national meet, jipped by her own teammate. She was 41st in a time of 21:51 over 6000 meters, a new PR for her.

On the track, Konkus dropped down to mostly mile races and some 800 meter efforts. The spring, especially, is when we saw her really start to make her mark by qualifying for her first national meet as an individual. She ran the 1500 meters and finished 9th overall in 4:32, once again missing an All-American spot by half a second.

Konkus will certainly have some major motivation this fall after missing out on All-American honors by one spot on two separate occasions in the same year. However, maybe more importantly, we're confident in her ability to be a better All-American low-stick than any of her teammates were last year.

Konkus was often the leading scorer for Washington U. at most meets and in an ideal scenario, she's closer to a top-30 or even top-25 All-American.

Joining Konkus in Washington U.'s top-five later this fall will likely be senior Lindsay Ott.

Last year, the veteran finished 5th overall at the UAA XC Championships and 13th at the Midwest Regional XC Championships last year. She didn’t have as strong of a day at the national meet, finishing 76th overall, but when you consider that Washington U.’s greatest strength was pack running, it seems fair to suggest that she too could have maybe been an All-American.

In our minds, we think she can join Konkus this fall when it comes to recreating last year's outstanding upfront firepower.

Much like Konkus, Ott dropped down to the mile and the 800 meters during the track season. She got the nod for Washington U.’s DMR team which ended up finishing 7th at the indoor national meet. On the outdoor oval, she set new PRs of 2:17 in the 800 meters and 4:37 in the 1500 meters, both not fast enough to qualify for the national meet, but respectable nonetheless.

Although, honestly, there's an argument that she may be better positioned for the longer distance races during the winter and spring months.

Ott is going to have to work with Konkus as Washington U.’s newest pair low-sticks if they want to repeat their upper-echelon performances from last fall. But like we said earlier, we do think that there is greater front-running scoring potency that she can offer over the next few months.

The third senior who makes up this trio of high-impact returners is Ella Behrens.

And no, not the one from Johns Hopkins who is now at Colorado.

You're thinking of Ella Baran.

Behrens was often the sixth runner for this team throughout last year, but she will have to step up in 2022 for Washington U. to maintain their 2021 excellence.

At the UAA XC Championships, she placed 25th overall, but that seemed to be a down day for her. She bounced back the next week and finished 16th at the Midwest Regional XC Championships, a minute and a half faster than the week before.

Her national meet performance was respectable, finishing in 22:32 which was good for 115th place. She was looking to be closer to where she was in 2019 when she finished in 62nd place, exciting potential that should not be overlooked over these next few months of competition.

Like her other teammates, Behrens likes to drop down to the mile on the track and she actually qualified for the indoor national meet in that event. Unfortunately she had a tough day at the NCAA Indoor Championships and ran 5:12, finishing 19th.

Still, she does have a PR of 5:03, so there is clearly plenty of talent.

In fact, that talent was plenty evident on the outdoor oval when she bumped up to the 5k and ran a very underrated time of 17:03. She only missed out on the national meet by a handful of seconds, putting her in a nationally competitive category that, in theory, is similar to that of Konkus and Ott.

If Behrens can get back to where she was in 2019, and maybe even build on the very encouraging success that she had during the spring, then the Washington U. women will once have a solid top-three to rally around in 2022.

The other returner from last year's national meet lineup is junior Avery McCammon. She was 30th at the UAA XC Championships, 24th at the Midwest Regional XC Championships and 166th at the NCAA XC Championships.

We'll admit, that 166th place finish is a tough look, but we all have bad days. For perspective, that performance led to a time that was 15 seconds slower than her regional time and the national meet was on a course where women were running PRs left and right.

We have very good reason to believe that McCammon can be even better in 2022 than she was in 2021. Let's not forget, this is someone who finished 14th at the Augustana Interregional Invite, a meet which featured a fairly deep field of top Division Three opponents.

Of course, Washington U. will still need a few other women to step up and become impact scorers, maybe even top-70 or top-80 national meet finishers.

Luckily for the Bears, their depth is one of the greatest aspects of their current roster.

Senior Julia Thigpen, junior Helena Teixeira-DaSilva, junior Marlee Fradkin and sophomore Julia Patterson are all viable options for Washington U. this fall.

None of those women are currently low-sticks by any means, but they should be able to be top-40 or top-50 in their region. In fact, the Bears are going to need them to be top-40 if they want to repeat last year's success.

But here's the thing: Few coaches are better at developing scorers and producing depth than Coach Jeff Stiles is. Everything that history has told us over the last decade suggests that at least one of these women will haver a major breakout season -- we're just not sure who it will be.

We should also note that this team is bringing in a strong freshman class. Jillian Heth, Cate Stevens, Riley Clark, Tatum Goforth and Ella Cerny are a few women who have a chance to make a varsity appearance this fall.

And knowing Washington U.'s success with younger distance talents, it's good to know that Coach Stiles will have plenty of high-upside options to work with this fall.

* * *

As of right now, this team has a very strong top-two and a decent top-three. There are, however, significant questions about who is going to fill out the rest of their top-seven. This roster has plenty of options, but only a few are proven scorers.

But let's be clear, we have tons of faith in Coach Jeff Stiles and this program. In fact, since 2014, the Washington U. women have never finished outside of the top-five at the cross country national meet.

Despite their mass scoring losses, history says that we might actually be undervaluing the Bears from St. Louis, Missouri at TSR #6.

And if we've learned anything at The Stride Report, it's best not to argue against history.