TSR's 2022 Preseason D1 XC Top 25 Rankings (Women): #23 Utah State Aggies

In a deep Mountain region that annually sees a large handful of teams qualify for the NCAA XC Championships, the Utah State Aggies were able to make use of their 2021 regular season opportunities, picking up key Kolas points last fall.

As a result, the women from Logan, Utah put themselves in a position to earn an at-large berth to the nation's biggest stage.

And as we look forward to 2022, when evaluating returners and analyzing new names who have joined this team, a spot to this year’s national meet isn’t out of the question for the Aggies.

In fact, it almost feels like their new standard.

* * *

The Utah State women saw respectable finishes at the major meets throughout the 2021 cross country season, many of which were crucial for their national meet hopes. While their competition greatly varied, the Aggies proved to be quietly strong against some of the better teams in the nation throughout last fall.

Beginning at the Paul Short Invite, the ladies of Utah State placed 3rd overall behind two historically deep teams in Northern Arizona and Villanova, but were only eight points out from the win -- a promising result.

Having their top-five scorers within the top-30 spots was a solid start to the season, although Utah State would need to create greater confined scoring potency in order to be more competitive with the likes of NAU and Villanova.

Even so, Katie Struthers continued to be the true low-stick that she was during the winter cross country season and her supporting cast looked better than ever.

All in all, it was a great first test for the Aggies.

Two weeks later at the Nuttycombe Invite, the Utah State women placed 13th against some of the nation’s best distance programs. Struthers continued to be the leading scorer for her squad with a very strong 33rd place finish. However, the pack of Micaela Rivera, Bailey Brinkerhoff, Emma Thornley and Abby Jensen kept their final four scoring time-spread at just 19 seconds.

With finishes of 72nd, 94th, 105th and 123rd, the Utah State women were able to close out their scoring at a reasonable point. While there was certainly a dip at the tail-end of their top-five, their ability to keep excessive scoring at a minimum was a fairly encouraging development.

And although they weren’t perfect, the team as a whole walked away from Wisconsin with plenty to be happy about.

During the postseason, the Aggies held off a hard-charging Colorado State team at the Mountain West XC Championships to finish 2nd overall, only to New Mexico, a national powerhouse.

This time, it was Morgan French who was instrumental in helping the Aggies as she made her way into the team’s top-three after being their sixth runner at Nuttycombe.

French’s 16th place finish complemented Struthers’ (10th) and Rivera’s (12th) performances, and it gave the Aggies five women in the top-20.

Utah State continued to prove that they had a complete and fairly deep squad, but additional firepower would have been a major benefit as they advanced deeper into the postseason. Struthers, after all, could only do so much.

Sure enough, Struthers once again led Utah State at the Mountain Regional XC Championships, providing key low points which ultimately landed the Aggies a 7th place team finish and later a bid to the NCAA XC Championships.

While certainly not their best race of the season, the Aggies proved once more that their depth would be their greatest strength. Although teams like Colorado, BYU, Utah and New Mexico flexed far greater up-front scoring, Utah State still had a top-five group that crossed the finish line before a few teams that finished ahead of them.

Once in Tallahassee, the Utah State women had, on paper, a lineup that should have limited excessive scoring. Their combination of depth and consistency made them a sneaky-good team.

But unfortunately, no one in that lineup had a great race.

Struthers held her own with an 81st place finish while Micaela Rivera was the next-best scorer Utah State had, finishing 135th. With their final three scorers just inside the top-200 spots, the Aggies settled for a slightly underwhelming 28th place team finish.

* * *

The end of Utah State's 2021 cross country season had the potential to be better -- and that's likely something that they know as well.

But as we fast forward to the 2022 season, the Aggies will be running it back with a very similar lineup, although this time, they'll be far more experienced.

And on paper, that extra experience could result in the Aggies being even better than they were last year.

It admittedly does hurt that the Aggies lose front-runner Katie Struthers. For a team that was already limited on firepower last fall, losing her only widens that gap. However, the remaining six women from their national meet roster all return later this fall.

That’s not something that most top-ranked programs can say in 2022.

But let’s instead start our conversation with someone who wasn’t on Utah State’s roster last year: BYU transfer Ana Weaver.

Weaver should (or at least could) fit seamlessly into the top-three of Utah State’s lineup this fall alongside veterans like Micaela Rivera and Bailey Brinkerhoff. Her potential as a prep runner was off the charts and she most recently won the USATF U20 Championships in the 5000 meters before placing 8th in the same event at the U20 World Championships.

Weaver also earned some valuable experience by competing in the NCAA last fall, toeing the line for one of the nation’s most prestigious distance programs, BYU.

Her 229th place finish at Nuttycombe, while far from ideal, wasn’t indicative of her true potential. Just look at her high school resume which is highlighted by a 14th place finish at the Foot Locker XC National Championships, top finishes at the Minnesota State Championships (across all seasons) and personal bests of 4:49 (1600) and 10:15 (3200).

After one season at BYU, Weaver started to find her groove on the outdoor oval, ultimately leading to her aforementioned success from earlier in the summer.

The incoming Aggie might not crack the top-40 All-American spots this season, but she will likely be a vital member of this lineup who can plug scoring gaps and help the Aggies get back to the NCAA XC Championships.

In theory, she could come close to replicating Struthers' past scoring value...or at least, that's her ceiling for this fall.

Meanwhile, Michaela Rivera’s improvements on the outdoor track in both the 5k and the 10k should translate extremely well to the cross country course (we think).

The Utah State veteran was a solid second scorer for the Aggies last fall, consistently finishing in the upper-ends of the fields that she was in. Her 72nd place finish at Nuttycombe might not look like much on paper, but it was a 78-place difference from where she finished in 2019.

Rivera was also a late addition to the NCAA West Preliminaries in the 10k during the outdoor track season. She narrowly missed out on qualifying for the outdoor national meet after running a 34:09 PR and finishing 14th in her region.

The 2021-2022 academic calendar proved to us that Rivera's ceiling could only get higher this cross country season. She was clearly a high-value piece in the fall, but her progression on the track has led us to believe that she can be only better in 2022.

Then we have Bailey Brinkerhoff who entered college in 2019 as one of the best high school athletes in the state of Utah. And after some adjustment to Coach Artie Gulden’s training regiment, this in-state star is someone who has emerged as a fairly reliable scorer.

During the 2021 cross country season, the rising junior never failed to finish outside of a scoring position and always put herself alongside a teammate for a majority of their races. She later gained some promising momentum on the track in her first go-around in the steeplechase, completing the season with a 10:25 PR and later earning a 16:40 PR for 5000 meters.

Brinkerhoff will need to channel her newfound aerobic strength on the grass and continue to finish as close to the front as possible. She still has enough room for growth, but she'll need to deliver on that upside if this team is going to collectively get better.

If she can do that and carry her teammates along with her, then that could be the difference in Utah State being outside of our rankings or inside the top-20, nationally.

However, maybe more importantly, the success of Utah State's supporting roles in this lineup will be imperative for their upcoming fall campaign.

French, Jensen, Thornley and Abby Gray all received valuable national meet experience during the 2021 cross country season and now know what it takes to earn an at-large bid to the cross country national meet.

French has the best chance of returning to the top-five in the Aggie’s lineup after rebounding from a tough finish at Nuttycombe last fall. Jensen, meanwhile, could perfectly complement French after being the team’s third scorer at the national meet last fall.

French and Jensen are very similar runners in the sense that they are better as the distance gets longer. Their 5k and 10k performances on the track are evidence of that.

These two women are sneaky-good support scorers who do a good job of making up for each other’s “off” days and fill in when needed.

And who knows? If they continue to progress, they could emerged as top-three contributors for this well-balanced team.

As for Thornley and Gray, they also never failed to finish outside of Utah State’s top-seven last fall. Both were reliable from a depth perspective and both did a solid job of finishing close to their teammates in scoring positions.

The backend varsity positions could hold great value for Utah State this season, especially when you remember that Thornley was a scorer at one point last fall.

Admittedly, there is no guarantee that any of these women will simply be better than last year. And if they are better, there's no promise that it will be by a significant amount.

However, the counter to that point is that each of these women do hold substantial upside and clear room for improvement. If three or four of these women actually deliver on that potential, even to varying degrees, then Utah State will be just as good as last year.

And maybe even better.

* * *

The Utah State women weren’t at their best last fall when they placed 28th at the NCAA XC Championships. On paper, we sincerely believe that they were better.

The team was fairly young, they lacked experience and Katie Struthers could only do so much as a low-stick at the front of this lineup.

And yes, the loss of Struthers’ scoring potency will be a damaging hit to the Aggies already-limited firepower this fall. That's probably our biggest concern with this team.

However, last year’s youth-laden squad now has national meet experience under their belts. They also bring back more varsity contributors than most teams do. They made improvements on the track this past spring and they brought in a likely varsity contributor off of the transfer portal.

Between Weaver, Rivera and Brinkerhoff, Utah State can (potentially) create an interchangeable trio with various strengths. The remaining runners in their top-seven run together fairly well and they have proven that they can keep their time-spread to a minimum, something that is extremely valuable on larger stages.

Time will only tell how effective these individual pieces will be as a collective whole.

But if everything comes together like we think it can, then the Utah State women may be much better than TSR #23.