TSR's 2022 Preseason D1 XC Top 25 Rankings (Men): #17 Harvard Crimson

The Harvard men have been one of the most fun and exciting success stories since the start of the pandemic. Coach Alex Gibby has taken a once unexciting men's team and has transformed them into a high-octane group of scorers capable of being amongst the nation's best cross country squads.

In 2022, many of Harvard's younger scorers will have matured into true veterans, a fact that could make the Crimson even more dangerous this fall despite a few key lineup losses.

And if everything on this team comes together perfectly, then a TSR #17 ranking may be far too conservative for a program capable of taking down some very good teams this fall.

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In the fall of 2021, the Harvard men didn't shy away from competition, toeing the line against some of the best cross country programs in the NCAA on a consistent basis.

The Crimson first truly started their season at the Battle in Beantown. There, they would face the likes of Arkansas, Syracuse, Duke and Providence, teams that would have posed a significant challenge for almost any opponent despite the season having only just begun.

In the end, Harvard showed that they still had plenty of rust to shake-off. Acer Iverson was Harvard's lone top-10 finisher with a 10th place finish while Matthew Pereira, David Melville and Graham Blanks placed 12th, 20th and 21st, respectively.

Those were fine results, but seeing their final scorer place 31st overall was not ideal.

That, however, didn't matter much. The Harvard men placed 4th in that field, losing to Arkansas, Syracuse and Duke. The Blue Devils were 16 points ahead of the Crimson.

Admittedly, Harvard's first race of the 2021 cross country season wasn't great. But for a meet in the third week of September, it was hardly time to panic. Far more important meets lied ahead.

The Crimson's next test would not get any easier. In fact, it would become much more challenging in comparison to the Battle in Beantown. That's because the Harvard men would toe the line for the Nuttycombe Invitational, the most competitive meet of the year with the exception of the NCAA XC Championships.

Luckily, in comparison to their earlier September-time race, Harvard held their own in the overwhelmingly large field.

Pereira and Blanks put together very solid 27th and 28th place finishes, giving Harvard respectable scoring potency and strong scoring stability at the front-end of this lineup. The same could be said for Acer Iverson who placed 33rd overall.

Through three runners, Harvard didn't just look good, they looked great. While they didn't have anyone in the top-20 individual spots, their scoring trio was just as strong as Air Force, Michigan, Furman and a few others.

However, what Harvard boasted in scoring potency they lacked in depth.

With the final two Crimson scorers placing 118th overall and 165th overall, only two other teams in the top-20 had more points in the final two scoring spots of their lineup: Providence in 19th place and Syracuse in 20th place.

Still, despite the massive drop-off, Harvard still hung on for a respectable 13th place finish. While it was far from perfect, the Crimson had to be happy about a performance that was clearly better than their Battle in Beantown effort.

Fast forward to the Ivy League XC Championships and things began to get interesting.

Harvard entered the meet in contention to win the title and depending on who you ask, they might have been considered the favorites. Of course, like most years, the Princeton men were also in contention for Ivy League gold and they held a very real shot of winning.

In a matchup that could be framed as firepower (Harvard) vs depth (Princeton), it was the Tigers who came out on top.

The Crimson still had the best scoring trio of the meet with Pereira, Iverson and Blanks going 1-4-5 in the overall results, tallying just nine points. However, the Tigers would end up scoring just 11 points through their first three runners, almost negating the scoring potency that Harvard had assembled.

With two more Princeton runners in the top-10 and Harvard's final two scorers placing 15th and 18th overall, the Tigers would end up taking home the win somewhat comfortably, 28 points to 43 points.

After settling for a runner-up finish at the Northeast Regional XC Championships, the Harvard men would advance to the national meet.

From our perspective, a top-20 finish on the nation's biggest stage would be considered a good way to end their season. Because while we did like their front-runners, their depth could only get them so far.

But what we didn't expect to see was Harvard having what was easily the greatest race of their season -- and of the past 53 years.

Graham Blanks was beyond phenomenal with a 23rd place finish while both Pereira and Iverson locked-down 35th and 40th place finishes, respectively.

And for those counting at home, that's three All-Americans in one national meet appearance.

That was a better top-three than Wisconsin, Wake Forest, Colorado and Tulsa.

Despite their bottom-two scorers finishing 156th and 178th, the Harvard men still emerged with a monumental 12th place finish. It was the program's best result at the national meet since 1968.

Now, as we enter the 2022 cross country season, there's one question that we can't seem to shake from our minds: What version of this team will see over the next three months?

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On paper, Harvard is a very likable team. Their low-stick scorers are very exciting and they actually have a decent amount of upside. This program hasn't seen this level of success in a very long time and the names who they have brought in certainly catch your attention.

Understandably, there has been a lot of hype surrounding this program in recent years.

We should, however, note that Harvard loses two men from the 2021 cross country lineup. One of those men was the team's seventh runner and the other was an All-American.

The departure of All-American Matthew Pereira is hard to look past. This guy was a terrific front-runner for the Crimson throughout last fall, showing great consistency and thriving in nearly every field that he toed the line for.

Harvard was extremely dependent on the success of their top-three runners last fall. Without Pereira, this lineup would have been much more reliant on their very limited depth rather than their overwhelming firepower.

And that's not an ideal scenario.

The good news is that the 1-2 punch of Iverson and Blanks should, theoretically, give Harvard a fairly high floor during the fall of 2022.

In fact, if you take out Pereira from last year's national meet results and redo the scores, Harvard still finishes 22nd overall at the NCAA XC Championships.

So where does that leave the Crimson going into this year? Should we rely solely on the math to determine their ranking? And if so, then where is Harvard making up those extra five spots from their hypothetical 22nd place finish to our TSR #17 ranking?

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We can view Harvard's monstrous gap between their top-two runners and their bottom-three scorers two ways, synchronously. That scoring gap should be viewed as a massive liability, but it should also be viewed as a very easy opportunity for growth.

We could spend all day talking about how great Acer Iverson and Graham Blanks are, but any discussion about them doesn't necessarily alter the structure of this team. Check out our preseason individual rankings for their analysis.

Let's move to the rest of this team...

Other returners like David Melville and Ben Hartvigsen were backend scorers last year and will almost certainly play a role in this team's top-seven later this fall. And although neither runner was able to close the gap on Harvard's scoring trio in 2021, they have shown promise on the track as of late.

Melville, for instance, ran 13:49 for 5000 meters on the indoor oval this past winter. He also ran 8:57 in the steeplechase and owns a 10k personal best of 29:00 from the spring of 2021.

Hartvigsen, meanwhile, has improved on the track as well. He ran a 10k personal best of 29:13 this past spring and also ran 14:14 for 5000 meters on the indoor oval.

Those are encouraging developments for two men who played such an impactful role in Harvard's top-five last fall. Even just incremental improvements on the grass from both of those men could lead to noticeable scoring improvements in 2022.

However, relying solely on the improvements of those two men can't be the sole reason why we have Harvard ranked at TSR #17. After all, you need five men to score in order to have a complete cross country team.

Joe Ewing is another returner from last year, although he was never a scorer for Harvard last fall -- but that may not matter.

This is someone who ran 1:48 for 800 meters and 3:58 for the mile this past year. And while it's true that middle distance performances are hard to translate to cross country, we do believe that Ewing will be better on the grass in comparison to last year.

But by how much is the more important question.

Speaking of mile-centric standouts, how about Viven Henz? The star talent from Luxembourg is likely better suited for the oval than the grass, but if I told you that a 3:38 runner for 1500 meters was going to be a top-five scorer, then you'd probably believe me.

Henz is a big unknown, especially since we're not sure how he'll translate his incredible 1500 meter success to the cross country course and the 10k racing distance.

But as I'm sure you've caught on by now, Henz doesn't need to be an All-American or a superstar. He just needs to be able to come in and contribute meaningful scoring to a team that most certainly has some lineup openings available.

And in theory, a 3:38 guy should definitely be capable of doing exactly that.

However, maybe the most important name who needs to be monitored is incoming freshman Shane Brosnan from New Jersey.

Brosnan was, without question, one of the greatest high school cross country runners in the Class of 2022 this past year. The Union Catholic graduate owns a 4:07 mile PR which is the main highlight of his track resume.

But on the grass, Brosnan was a juggernaut. After placing 29th at the 2020 Eastbay XC National Championships, the soon-to-be Crimson runner came back the following season even stronger.

Last December, Brosnan finished 13th overall in the LOADED Garmin RunningLane XC National Championships, securing a 5k personal best of 14:25 in the process. He would later venture to the Eastbay XC National Championships where Brosnan finished 7th overall.

On paper, Brosnan should absolutely be a varsity contributor for Harvard this fall. His cross country acumen is second-to-none and he could make a significant positive impact on this team.

In fact, we would even bet that he's a top-five scorer this year.

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When you step back and analyze the lineup options that Harvard has throughout their roster, the once-widening scoring gaps that were going to be a major concern for them this fall suddenly seem fillable.

Is Harvard going to be as good as last year? Probably not unless someone instantly steps in and immediately replicates Pereira's scoring potency.

Even so, the scoring duo of Iverson and Blanks make it difficult for this team not to be ranked in our XC Top 25 at an absolute bare minimum. Brosnan likely gives the Crimson a realistic scorer at the middle of this lineup and the returners on this team could each make a small dent in the scoring gaps from last year.

And when you add up those incremental improvements, they could end up having a big impact.

When you start putting all of these pieces of the puzzle together, our TSR #17 ranking seems fairly reasonable. It rewards Harvard for their incredible national meet performance last fall, but it also acknowledges some of the scoring challenges that they might have in 2022.

But make no mistake, as long as Iverson and Blanks perform like we think they will, then this team can only go up...and maybe by a lot.