TSR's 2021 D1 Winter XC Preseason Rankings: Top 25 Teams (Women)

The Stride Report has opted to exclude the Ivy League from these rankings as the conference is not expected to compete this winter. The below rankings take performances from this past fall into consideration, but they do not aim to penalize teams that did not compete.

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25. Duke Blue Devils

The Duke women put together an impressive abbreviated cross country season this past fall which culminated in a solid 4th place finish at the ACC XC Championships. Michaela Reinhart was the standout low-stick for the team while sophomore Samantha Schadler came on strong as a solid secondary scorer.

Amanda Beach and Sara Platek were also a great duo during the fall and if they can replicate their success during the winter months, then they could be instrumental in the Blue Devils' success.

The Duke women could find themselves competing for an NCAA qualifying honor over the next two months. With Reinhart and Schadler up front and the Beach/ Platek duo close behind, it will be imperative for Duke to solidify their fifth scoring spot if they want to be in Stillwater, Oklahoma come March.

24. Villanova Wildcats

There's not a whole lot to talk about with the Villanova Wildcats. They're still a relatively young team with a high ceiling that should only get better with time. Lydia Olivere is an excellent low-stick, but we do have a few questions as to what their varsity lineup is going to look like this winter.

Even so, Coach Gina Procaccio is one of the best developers of distance talent in the country and I don't think she gets enough credit for her ability to make the Wildcats a consistently competitive program.

23. Butler Bulldogs

The Butler Bulldogs have been pretty quiet this fall due to the BIG East postponing the 2020 cross country season. With their 2021 indoor conference meet cancelled, the Bulldogs will have the opportunity to concentrate on key indoor meets and the winter cross country season. Last year, the Bulldogs won BIG East conference title by nine points over Villanova and were only one place shy of qualifying for NCAA's at their regional meet.

Butler benefits from returning six of their top seven from their 2019 team. Emily Royston is back to lead this squad and she'll be surrounded by a great supporting cast. Oklahoma State transfer Kami Hankins could make an immediate impact for the Bulldogs as she has run 9:53 (3k) and 17:06 (5k) on the track. Adding Hankins to the lineup could fill the lone varsity spot left open by the departure of Josephine Thestrup.

22. Iowa State Cyclones

Some of you may be scratching your heads and wondering how a team that we ranked higher than Florida State in the fall and beat Oklahoma State at the BIG 12 XC Championships is now ranked behind those two programs.

Well, we expect FSU to be better given their performances from 2019 and we think Oklahoma State will be much better if Somers and Born are back at 100%.

As for Iowa State, we have certainly been impressed by their recent improvements, surprising consistency and promising potential. However, this is a team that largely never raced against any top competition last fall. Texas was probably their hardest competition and we don't currently think that the Longhorns are a top team in the NCAA.

We are ultimately trying to find a balance when ranking Iowa State, so we compromised by placing them at TSR #22.

21. Boise State Broncos

Boise State fell back a few spots from their original summer ranking, but it's not because of anything that they did. They're a deep team with a plethora of interchangeable scorers, but both Illinois and NAU have made promising developments from key runners which gives them the edge over the Broncos.

Despite being listed at TSR #21, don't sleep on Boise State this winter. They have the potential to be a very good team.

20. Illinois Fighting Illini'

The women of Illinois enter the winter cross country season with six of their seven members from their team that won the 2019 Midwest Regional Championships and placed 22nd at NCAA's. Their 2019 season was highlighted by numerous top-six team finishes which proved that the Fighting Illini were finding their groove in a deep conference against tough competitors.

Allison McGrath and Rebecca Craddock are two strong front-runners and the women behind them offer great consistency and tons of depth. Plus, they now have Bradley transfer Ayah Aldadah on their roster. She just ran 9:41 for 3000 meters this past weekend (which was a 20 second PR). She was solid in the Missouri Valley Conference and could shake things up for Illinois as a key scorer.

The BIG 10 teams only have the B1G 10 XC Championships on their winter schedules, but after strong performances at the Wisconsin Badger Icebreaker, the Illinois women could pick up right where they left off in 2019.

19. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks

The question for NAU this winter is, who will step up? Taryn O’Neill has the potential to be a standout All-American in the NCAA. She opened 2019 with a pair of strong races, but didn't have a great end to her season. If she can put together a full year at her potential, she could be a dark horse All-American.

The same goes for Jessa Hanson, a recent breakout distance talent who just ran 32:47 for 10,000 meters at the Sound Running Track Meet back in December. Her emergence should be incredibly exciting for a Northern Arizona team that needed additional firepower on their roster.

NAU looks relatively solid through their first two or three runners, but their potential as a team will rely on who can round out the back-half of their scoring group.

18. Indiana Hoosiers

A team with a lot of momentum going into this winter cross country season is Indiana. Even though the team placed 12th at the 2019 BIG 10 XC Championships and then 6th at the Great Lakes Regional Championships, the experience that these Indiana women gained should bode well them over next two months.

The Indiana women have a true low-stick Bailey Hertenstein, a potential All-American candidate in Sarah Schmitt and a strong pack of women who are on the rise. If all of these women run to their potential, then a top-20 finish at the NCAA Championships is well within reach for the Hoosiers.

17. Oklahoma State Cowgirls*

*Assumes that Molly Born will return to competition and that Taylor Somers will replicate her 2019 All-American level fitness

Yes, we know. The Oklahoma State women did not have a great 2020 cross country season. However, we need to provide context as to why they struggled and why they will at least have an opportunity to be so much better this winter.

Taylor Roe was outstanding for the Cowgirls this past fall and Gabby Hentemann was excellent as well. Those two evolved into top-tier scorers and gave the Oklahoma State women a great 1-2 punch.

However, the women from Stillwater lacked depth and they needed scoring assistance behind their dynamic duo to keep them competitive with their BIG 12 rivals. That, however, didn't happen, and Oklahoma State had to settle for a 4th place finish at the BIG 12 Championships.

But let's suppose that Taylor Somers, a 2019 cross country All-American, returns to this lineup. Let's also suppose that whatever was causing Molly Born to run so poorly last fall has now been remedied. If those two are able to replicate their 2019 form, then the Oklahoma State women may have one of the best scoring groups of four in the NCAA.

They'll still need extra help and more depth, but there is a lot more potential on this team than some people realize. We just don't know what this team is going to look like in 2021 and for that reason, we are listing them at TSR #17.

16. Florida State Seminoles

TSR has since learned that Lauren Ryan will not be coming back to Florida State this winter.

We have talked about Florida State extensively, so we won't spend too much time on them. All you need to know about the Seminoles is that even though they didn't meet expectations this past fall, they were still a strong team and they had a handful of respectable performances.

15. Alabama Crimson Tide

Alabama was a team that we told everyone to watch out for earlier this summer. Sure enough, they emerged as a consistent contender that slowly got better as the season went on, peaking at the SEC Championships for their best race of the season.

The Crimson Tide finished just 16 points behind the juggernaught Razorbacks and easily had the best top three in the field with Chelangat, Gitahi and Reed finishing 1-5-6. We still need to see better depth on the backend of this lineup, but their firepower is outstanding and their backend scorers are good enough, at least for the time being.

14. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

The Yellow Jackets are coming off of an excellent 2020 cross country season. The women of Georgia Tech were able to compete three times before racing at the ACC XC Championships and each time they took to the grass, something good happened.

The Yellow Jackets had a lot of momentum heading into the ACC XC Championships where they finished 2nd overall, losing only to NC State and beating out teams such as Florida State, Duke, North Carolina and Notre Dame.

Georgia Tech took advantage of competing during the fall and could carry that momentum into the winter cross country season. Fegans is a solid low-stick for the team and the ability for Liz Galarza and Mary Kathryn Knott to close the gap between themselves and Feagans was a promising sign as we move into the winter months.

13. Utah Utes

Utah shocked the cross country world in 2019 when they took down a loaded field to win the Joe Piane Invitational. They struggled a bit to close out the season, but they were still incredibly impressive and boasted plenty of top individual talents.

The Utes look to be led by the senior duo of Poppy Tank and Bella Williams, two women with All-American ambitions. Behind them is Cara Woolnough who looked solid in 2019 and will be relied upon more in 2021 with the graduation of Sarah Feeny and the departure of Scarlet Dale.

As for the final few scoring spots, there are a handful of names who could find themselves in varsity roles. Trina Moreno, Sarah Newton, Ellie Lundgreen and Emma Christensen give Utah plenty of options, but the depth of this team has left us a little unsure as to what we should expect from them moving forward.

12. Wisconsin Badgers

Similar to the rest of the BIG 10, Wisconsin did not race this past fall. They will have to overcome the big hit from losing both Alicia Monson and Amy Davis to graduation, but adding Canadian star Brogan MacDougall should help.

MacDougall won a slew of championships while competing in Canada and also earned trips to the World Junior Cross Country Championships and the Pan-American Games. Her experience and poise in cross country should help replace some of the star power that Wisconsin lost.

Outside of MacDougall, Wisconsin will be leaning heavily on Alissa Niggemann to finish as an All-American in 2021. She was 52nd at the 2019 national meet and should be on the cusp this winter if she matches her fitness from last year.

The one big pick-up that Wisconsin landed is Scarlet Dale, the former Utah runner who has since joined the Badgers. We believe that she still has cross country eligibility, so if she does run, then she'll be provide some much need scoring stability in the middle of this lineup.

The Badgers will also need their younger group, which features Peyton Sippy, Lucinda Crouch and Alexa Westley, to make big strides this season. All three of those women looked great as young runners in the NCAA, but will have to carry more of the scoring workload now.

If the Badgers get solid development across the board, they could make a run at the top-10.

11. Minnesota Golden Gophers

The Gophers did not race this past fall, but the looming return of the Hasz twins gives this team a ton of exciting potential. The only problem, however, is that Megan Hasz hasn't looked great in her two indoor races so far this season. We were expecting her to be an All-American stud this winter, but we're not convinced that's definitely going to happen anymore.

Throughout all of 2019, every writeup on the Gophers came with the asterisk which essentially said, “but what if they had the Hasz twins?" Now, they do. A deep roster, a budding star in Anastasia Korzenowski and the return of the Hasz twins sets up Minnesota with a chance at the BIG 10 title and a top-10 team finish at the national meet.

10. Michigan State Spartans

Graduations and transfers did a number on the Spartan’s scorers from 2019. Of those five, only two are back in 2021. The good news? Michigan State has plenty of depth to help fill the holes.

Jenna Magness looks to be the top Spartan after finishing 46th at the 2019 national meet and has a great shot at being an All-American in 2021. Behind her, juniors Sarah Kettel and Maggie Farrell will need to step up. Farrell was once one of the best young talents in the NCAA, but hasn't always replicated that fitness. If she can rebound to similar form, then she would be pivotal in the Spartans' success this winter.

Outside of that trio, the next in line to fill the gaps will be India Johnson, Katie Osika and Lindsey Rudden. All three of those women put together some strong races in 2019, but lacked the consistency needed to be a top-tier team.

Michigan State will be relying on this group and hoping that they can find more consistency in 2021. There is a lot of potential and numerous varsity lineup options on this team, but their ceiling and actual lineup structure remains a question until we see them race.

9. Air Force Falcons

The Air Force Falcons were a surprising 8th pace at the 2019 NCAA Championships, but if one were to look at their roster and resume, a top-10 finish was not expected. This year, however, the Falcons bring back four of their top seven, but are slated to have some of the best firepower in the NCAA.

All-American Maria Mettler is coming off of an outstanding 10k personal best at the Sound Running Track Meet where she ran 32:09 and won her heat. She placed 36th at the 2019 NCAA XC Championships and owns a 5k personal best of 15:49 which could surely drop given her recent 10k PR.

Mettler, when competing with teammate Mahala Norris, provides the Falcons with a strong duo near the front of each race. Norris, who finished 39th at last year's cross country national meet, will be one to watch for this winter as she consistently placed well amongst tough competition.

Mikayla Gallagher had a strong season as well leading up to regionals and the national meet and has the potential to compete for a top-40 finish at NCAA's. If Gallagher can finish near Mettler and Norris, then it seems plenty realistic for the Air Force women to earn a top-10 finish.

We still have questions regarding this team's depth and if they can be competitive in larger races against top-tier competition. However, their firepower is very underrated and that scoring trio should be good enough to make the Falcons one of the better teams in the NCAA.

8. Colorado Buffaloes

This could be the biggest question mark year for Colorado in the Wetmore era. The Buffaloes no longer have proven veterans like Dani Jones and Sage Hurta to hold down the front and will instead shift to rising talent such as Holly Bent, established veteran Rachel McArthur and newcomer Abby Nichols to propel the Buffaloes in 2021.

Colorado has loads of potential, but will need it all to come together if they want to have a shot at the podium. Nichols transferred from Ohio State and should be an All-American this season. Bent also just missed top-40 in 2019, but has a great chance of earning that honor in 2021. Rachel McArthur just had a nice race at the Oklahoma State Invitational where she placed 4th, although we'll be interested to see if she can be translate that performance to an All-American honor.

Besides those three, things are a bit muddied.

When you factor in Emily Venter, Annie Hill, Emily Covert and a few others, the Buffs have loads of talent, but also a lot of unknowns.

Venters' last cross country race was in 2018 when she placed 39th at the NCAA Championships. Covert was a two-time top-10 finisher at the Foot Locker National Championships and 4th at NXN in 2019, but has yet to (officially) compete since coming to Colorado in 2019. Annie Hill has shown flashes of excellence on the grass, but finished a modest 100th place at the 2019 national meet.

So what does this team look like in 2021? Well, it depends on who runs. The roster has loads of depth and is sure to see improvement across the board as Wetmore and Burroughs work their magic.

However, for Colorado to reach their potential, it will take big seasons and clutch performances from each of the women that we mentioned above (as well as few others).

7. Michigan Wolverines

The Michigan Wolverines are an interesting team that has a lot of potential heading into the winter cross country season, so long as everyone is healthy.

Ericka VanderLende and Katelynne Hart are coming off strong indoor debuts, running 9:20 and 9:21 for 3000 meters, respectively. VanderLende proved last fall that she is of national caliber when she finished 25th at the NCAA Championships and Hart was a dominant force during her prep days in Illinois.

Camille Davre and Anna Forsyth are the big “what if's” on this roster. Davre was 29th at the NCAA Championships in 2018, but struggled last fall and a had few unexciting results. As for Forsyth, she was 46th at the 2018 national meet after stellar performances at her conference and regional races. However, unlike Davre, Forsyth did not compete at all during the 2019 cross country season.

If both of those women are at the top of their game and are able to replicate their 2018 fitness, then together with VanderLende and Hart, the Wolverines have a formidable top four capable of getting them on the podium.

6. New Mexico Lobos

Heading into the 2020-2021 academic year, the New Mexico Lobos were expected to be a podium contending team with Weini Kelati leading the team. However, things have changed since then as Kelati has signed a professional contract and is now running for Under Armour.

Yet, even without the returning NCAA champion, New Mexico will still be a fun team to watch with Hannah Nuttall and Adva Cohen leading the charge as a legitimate All-American candidates.

Nuttall had a stellar 2019 cross country season which resulted in a 35th place finish at the national meet. Cohen, meanwhile, had a short 2019 season due to her competing at the IAAF World Track Championships. It took a few meets for Cohen to regain her momentum before she finished 55th at NCAA's. She is definitely All-American material on the grass based off of her resume.

Luckily for the Lobos, they are not without depth this year like they have been in years past.

Anna Kostarellis is a grad transfer from Xavier University who was 66th at the 2019 NCAA Championships and was runner-up at the BIG East Championships. Hannah Miller, a grad transfer from Southern Methodist, has competed at three national cross country meets throughout her career.

Kostarellis and Miller are great pickups for the Lobos as they both bring experience to a team that has had significant success at national meets each and every year.

Sophomore Gracelyn Larkin is a 9:22 (3k) runner and junior Alex Harris is a 10:14 (3k) steeplechaser. On paper, Larkin and Harris could provide excellent scoring value and depth if they can translate their success from the oval to the grass.

Kelati may be gone, but there are enough reinforcements on this team that will allow the Lobos to stay competitive.

5. Washington Huskies

Even with Katie Rainsberger out of cross country eligibility, the Washington Huskies should be a top-five cross country team given their newfound depth. The Huskies were 11th at the 2019 national cross country meet, but have since seen multiple women from Seattle step up and make a name for themselves.

Melany Smart, the 12th place finisher at last year's national meet, will look to challenge for a top-10 finish this year and she surely has the potential to make that happen. Aside from Smart, the three other women to pay close attention to are Allie Schadler, Haley Herberg and Taylor Chiotti.

Schadler and Herberg both recently competed at the Sound Running Track Meet in December, posting times of 15:33 and 15:40, respectively. Then there is Chiotti, a transfer from Oregon, who brings with her experience on the national stage after placing 79th at the 2019 championships.

The Huskies have far better depth than some people may give them credit for. They shouldn’t be counted out of a chance to challenge for a podium finish come March.

4. BYU Cougars

The Cougars were able to compete once during the 2020 fall cross country season and they made the most of their trip out to Stillwater, Oklahoma for the OSU Invitational when they easily won the meet with only 22 points. All five scorers were within the top-nine, paced by Whittni Orton’s individual win.

There isn’t much need to talk about Orton’s potential as she'll be the favorite for the individual cross country national title. The women to focus on are Aubrey Frentheway, Lexy Halladay, and Anna Camp-Bennett.

Frentheway is coming off of a 3k performance where she ran 9:23 (altitude-converted) and was 3rd at the Oklahoma State Invite. Halladay, only a freshman, threw down a 9:30 (3k) (altitude-converted) and was a high school prep stud on the grass. Camp-Bennett, primarily a middle distance runner, has experience competing on the national stage for the Cougars and will be instrumental in bringing the underclassmen up with her.

BYU not only benefits from solid front-runners, but also remarkable depth. Sara Musselman, Sophie Lasswell, Anna Martin and Haley Johnston will all be women looking to vie for a top-seven spot. Based on who is on this roster, the BYU women are in a position to compete for a podium finish come March.

3. Arkansas Razorbacks

It's hard to ignore the overall talent that Arkansas has. Between their veteran returners, their talented new transfers and plethora of young runners, few NCAA cross country teams are deeper than the Razorbacks.

Their SEC Championship performance wasn't quite as dominating or as convincing of a victory as we were expecting, but they still brought home gold and didn't give us a reason to doubt them throughout last fall.

They're not perfect, and they could stand to use a little more top-end firepower, but we think that they have all the weapons that they need to be a podium team in March.

2. NC State Wolfpack

Sure, you could definitely make the argument that NC State deserves to be at the top spot. They dominated their competition this past fall, cruised to an easy ACC title victory and saw a new front-runner emerge in Dom Clairmonte.

However, we still haven't seen Tuohy or Starliper race and we don't know if we will see them this winter. Not only that, but Kelsey Chmiel didn't have her best season this past fall. She'll need to be at 100% if the Wolfpack are going to take down Stanford.

Even with some of the questions and uncertainties that we have, we still believe that NC State will be one of the obvious title favorites come March.

1. Stanford Cardinal

Stanford did not race this past fall, but they have the most talented group of any team in the NCAA. This squad brings back five of their top seven from the 2019 national meet and added a handful of freshmen standouts who could be immediate factors this winter. Along with all of that, they brought in NCAA star Aubrey Roberts as a graduate transfer. This is a team that could legitimately have six All-Americans this season if everything goes perfectly.

On paper, Stanford almost looks unbeatable. If they run to their potential, they will be scary good this season. Sure, there is always the chance that some runners don’t meet expectations or have bad seasons, but even then, this team has so much depth that it might not matter.

With six NCAA veterans and Dudek as potential All-Americans, and Jenks as a wildcard, the ceiling is the sky for this team.

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Just Missed (in no particular order)

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

California Baptist Lancers

Southern Utah Thunderbirds

Ole Miss Rebels

Tulsa Golden Hurricanes

Oregon Ducks

North Carolina Tar Heels

Penn State Nittany Lions

Syracuse Orange

Honorable Mentions (in no particular order)

UCLA Bruins

Texas Longhorns

West Virginia Mountaineers

Furman Paladins

Kentucky Wildcats

Tennessee Volunteers

Notes

- If the Ivy League was going to compete this winter, we would have placed Harvard in our "Just Missed" category and Yale in our "Honorable Mentions" category.