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TSR's 2023 Preseason D3 XC Top 10 Rankings (Women): #2 Johns Hopkins Blue Jays
- Kevin Fischer
- Sep 13, 2023
- 7 min read
Written by Kevin Fischer, edits and additional commentary by Gavin Struve and Garrett Zatlin
NOTE: Earlier this summer, The Stride Report reached out to nearly every team that was considered for a possible ranking this summer. While we did receive numerous responses and great clarity, we did not get a 100% response rate. On rare occasions, we are referencing TFFRS in order to talk about returners and athletes who are out of eligibility.
Last year, we thought that the 2021 national champions would get knocked out and somebody else would get a chance to lift the trophy in the fall of 2022.
And it wasn’t just us.
The prevailing wisdom among those who were involved with Division Three cross country was that the 2022 team title was a two-horse race between U. of Chicago and Wartburg.
But in the words of national champion college football coach Kirby Smart, "you’re either elite or you’re not," and this Johns Hopkins program has continually proven to be elite when it matters most. Even if we're not necessarily projecting a fourth-consecutive national title, we expect more of the same in 2023.
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For much of the 2022 cross country season, it was difficult to tell where the Blue Jays fit among the top Division Three teams. They did much of their racing against Division One fields and they weren’t really challenged at their conference or regional meets.
Johns Hopkins opened the year at the Baltimore Metro Meet where they beat Maryland and had Alex Ross win the meet as an individual. That, however, was more of rust-buster.
At the MSU Spartan Invitational, the Johns Hopkins women placed 4th overall, but were 15 points behind fellow Division Three power, SUNY Geneseo. Ross once again finished as the Blue Jays' top scorer in 6th place while Sara Stephenson (15th) gave this team a fantastic 1-2 scoring punch.
The rest of this scoring group featured Sydney Fridel (35th), Viviana Li (64th) and Cooper Brotherton (68th). Those were solid finishes, although the gaps at the backend of this lineup would need to be improved as the season progressed.
The Johns Hopkins women were humbled a bit at the Lehigh Paul Short Run, placing 34th, but they did not race against any Division Three teams. At the Panorama Farms Invitational, Ross was the lone standout in 20th place as her squad dropped to 15th overall in the team standings.
While we could go through each scorer and dissect how they performed on those stages, that kind of analysis would largely do us no good. We knew that the Blue Jays had a couple of low-stick standouts, but against these loaded D1 fields, we still couldn't gauge this team in their entirety.
Once they reached the postseason, the Blue Jays predictably dominated the Centennial Conference XC Championships, tallying a perfect team score of 15 points as Ross won the individual title.
Another commanding victory came at the Mid-Atlantic Regional XC Championships along with another win for Ross. Behind her, the combination of Stephenson, Isis Diaz, Katharine Priu and Triya Roy provided a balanced lineup with finishes of 3-8-15-16, respectively.
Of course, none of that led us to believe that would what happen next.
Even though we knew what Ross and Stephenson were capable of entering the postseason, it was hard to project where the rest of Johns Hopkins' pack would end up in a national field.
Unsurprisingly, the Blue Jays' two low-sticks standouts delivered top-10 All-American results with Ross placing 5th and Stephenson finishing 9th. Their firepower was huge, but it was the rest of this lineup that stunned us.
Sydney Friedel produced a pleasantly surprising All-American performance (30th) and was followed by Katharine Priu in 53rd place and Paloma Hancock in 73rd place to round out their team's top-five. That series of results gave the Blue Jays just enough firepower and just enough depth to win their eighth national title under Coach Bobby Van Allen, this time by a razor-thin margin of just three points.
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Losing both Alex Ross and Sydney Friedel is a difficult reality to confront.
The former, in particular, was one of the best and most reliable low-sticks in the country last year. And when you look at Johns Hopkins' scoring structure from last fall, there was a ton of weight being placed on how well she did.
Friedel was great throughout last fall, often acting as a reliable third scorer for this team. However, her regular season results didn't necessarily guarantee that she was going to be an All-American (although the D1-centric races made it hard to tell). Not having her and Ross leaves behind a chasm of lost scoring.
That being said, this program never fails to reload, and this year should be no different. The Blue Jays did a great job during the winter and spring months of developing their returning talent. They also utilized recruiting and the transfer market incredibly well to bolster their squad going into the 2023 season.
And frankly, after seeing what they did last year, we're not going to bet against the elite history of this program.
Leading the charge in 2023 will no doubt be Sara Stephenson, our TSR #3 runner in our preseason top-20 individual rankings. Without Ross around, Stephenson will be this dynasty's newest focal star and she appears to be more than ready for that role.
But we all know how good Stephenson is. And frankly, her scoring improvements can only get marginally better, specifically on the national stage. It's everyone else who we have more questions about.
It’s not exactly clear who will fill the next few spots after Stephenson, but that’s because there’s a conglomerate of talented runners who all have the potential to step into the top-half of this lineup.
Paloma Hancock, despite not racing since the cross country season, is an “Honorable Mention” name in our preseason individual rankings. That's because past performances of hers indicate that she has a high ceiling -- and if she returns to that point, then she'll give this team so much needed firepower.
Yes, Hancock placed 73rd at the 2022 cross country national meet, but if she can find the form that led her to finish 21st at the 2021 NCAA XC Championships, then the Blue Jays will have a really solid second scorer. Of course, her recent absence from racing makes it hard to gauge expectations for her this fall.
Graduate student Katharine Priu is also back and should play a key role. She was 53rd at last year’s cross country national meet and was incredibly reliable for most of the fall months. She quietly recorded some solid track results this past spring, including a 17:43 PR over 5000 meters.
We don't know if Priu is going to be an All-American ace in 2023, but it's hard to be more consistent and steady as her. Her entire resume, not just last fall, suggests exactly that. And with small improvements, she can realistically be an All-American in November.
Triya Roy also returns to this team after placing 16th on the regional stage last year and competing at the national meet. The Blue Jays also have Cooper Brotherton who ran 17:54 for 5000 meters as a freshman this spring.
If those two women can build momentum, then they could give Johns Hopkins some success as backend scorers. And given Coach Bobby Van Allen's history of development, it would be surprising if one of those rising talents didn't have a breakout season this fall.
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One interesting storyline to monitor is this program's group of high-level middle distance runners and whether or not they can find cross country success. If one or two of them do, then that might be the spark that this team needs to help defend their 2023 title.
Isis Diaz, to some extent, is already established on the cross country course despite racing primarily the 800 meters and mile on the oval. The former rookie placed a respectable 140th at last year’s cross country national meet and will be looking to take another jump. And don't forget, this is someone who finished in the top-10 of both her regional and conference stages.
Simply put, we are very high on her this fall.
I’m also intrigued to see whether Harrinee Senthilkumar or Mackenzie Setton can find themselves playing a key role over the next few months. Neither woman was in last year’s top-seven, but Senthilkumar was a 1500 meter national qualifier in the spring and Setton broke 5:00 in the mile.
At the very least, both of these runners appear to enter this fall as high-upside x-factors.
The Blue Jays are also adding what are expected to be a pair of impact transfer additions: Sarah Conant and Jenna Lange. The latter has experience on the Division Three national stage as she was 75th at the 2022 cross country national meet while running for Pomona-Pitzer.
Conant, meanwhile, is a graduate of Division One program, UMass Amherst. And while she didn't enjoy as much success last year, she has previously put together results that would suggest that she can be a top-tier runner in Division Three, including a 9th place finish at the 2021 Atlantic-10 XC Championships and a 3000 meter personal best of 9:52.
Lange and Conant can instantly come into this program and raise the ceiling of this team by a tremendous amount. With their introductions, it's hard to see a scenario where this team has a truly poor race on the national stage in 2023.
And if either (or both) of those women take a leap into the All-American range (which is plenty possible), then our TSR #1 team better be careful.
We should also note that there is great class of incoming freshmen for Johns Hopkins this year. That group of rookies is highlighted by 10:09 (3k) runner Isabella Stenhouse who could also shake things up.
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Considering the scoring losses they suffer, the Blue Jays don't add up as national title favorites on paper entering 2023. Even so, they have a superstar who they can rally around followed by an abundance of depth.
We just listed double-digit women who could contribute to this varsity lineup in 2023 -- and we hardly had to reach for talent. If a couple of middle-lineup returnees (or perhaps Lange) can emerge as All-Americans behind Stephenson, and the youth movement fills the backend, then this team will have a high-end defined scoring structure with little downside.
It takes some projection to place Johns Hopkins at TSR #2 entering this fall, but this program's track record suggests that they should almost definitely be a podium team yet again. It would also be foolish to entirely rule them out as a contender to lift yet another trophy.
