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Three Sentences Or Less: 2024 D2 NCAA Outdoor Championship Men's 10k Preview
- Gavin Struve
- May 20, 2024
- 6 min read
Editor's Note: Our TSR writers were asked to produce three sentences or less of analysis on every entrant in every distance event for every division.
The below athletes are ordered alphabetically to match the start list
Predictions coming later this week!
1. Will Aitken (Wingate)
While he's not among the biggest names in this 10k field, we expect that Will Aitken should be able to hold his own. For one, he's among five men representing the defending cross country team champions and will get to race alongside his teammates. He has also flexed commendable dynamism and adaptability to different racing situations this spring, as evidenced by nationally competitive times in the 5k, the 10k and the 3000-meter steeplechase.
2. William Amponsah (West Texas A&M)
Even if he has yet to win a national title on the track, William Amponsah is arguably the biggest favorite to win this event. He's run 28:00 for the 10k -- which is the fastest D2 mark this season by nearly 30 seconds and the third-fastest NCAA mark regardless of division -- so he may be able to dictate this race to the extent where he doesn't need to rely on tactical savvy or positioning. Plus, we know that he has championship pedigree after winning the individual cross country national title this past fall during his first season in the NCAA.
3. Jan Lukas Becker (Mississippi College)
The defending national champion in this event has not quite displayed a level of dominance befitting of that title over the past year. That, of course, is not to say that Jan Lukas Becker is unfit to repeat, but attempting to secure a victory over his elite southern contemporaries will be his greatest challenge yet.
4. Logan Bocovich (Colorado Mines)
A 10k All-American at the Division Three level last spring, Logan Bocovich already proved that he could hold his own since transferring to the D2 level when he emerged as a top-half All-American during the cross country season. Now, the questions are whether he and the Orediggers will employ a team strategy and if Bocovich is willing to be more ambitious for a top-eight finish in this event considering that he's one of several men doubling back to the 5k later in the weekend.
5. Dayton Brown (Adams State)
Dayton Brown is one of the most variable D2 distance stars and we could realistically see him land in either the top-four or the bottom-five of this field. That being said, we like this NCAA veteran's chances more considering that he's only racing this event. Plus, his recent 28:35 PR is further evidence that he has the ceiling to hang with virtually anyone in this race.
6. Hamza Chahid (Wingate)
With some of the best closing speed in this field and what feels like a baseline of an All-American finish, one can understand why Hamza Chahid is a contender to emerge from this race with a national title in a third different event. And while we have little questions about Chahid's fitness, what level is his 10k strength at as someone who has raced the event just once as a collegian and last did so nearly two months ago?
7. Lukas Ehrle (Wingate)
It's undeniable that Lukas Ehrle has ingratiated himself to the high-level D2 distance scene faster than most. Not only has he produced quick times, but he has clearly been racing to win after producing 10k victories in his Bryan Clay Invite heat and at the South Atlantic Conference Championships. How might this rookie adjust to racing in a field in which he won't have strong odds of winning?
8. Duncan Fuehne (Colorado Mines)
Duncan Fuehne is one of the more accomplished runners in recent D2 distance history who hasn't won a national title (yet). And while a recent RMAC 10k title (over mostly teammates) serves as fodder for his dark horse candidacy, a sixth All-American honor feels far more likely than a gold medal. It's certainly conceivable that Fuehne could match his previous highest national meet finish (3rd) in this setting.
9. Dawson Gunn (Colorado Mines)
Colorado Mines has a men's 10k contingent to rival that of Wingate which is fitting given that those two programs made up the top-half of the podium at the 2023 NCAA XC Championships. Dawson Gunn was the RMAC Championship runner-up finisher over 10k behind Fuehne and a strong finish here could help him stake his claim as one of the future faces of his juggernaut distance program.
10. Paul Knight (Colorado Mines)
A backend All-American in this very event last spring, Paul Knight seems to already straddle the status that his above-listed teammate, Dawson Gunn, is building towards. He doesn't have the highest ceiling in this fairly wide-open field, but you can bet that Knight has one of the highest floors and, in my opinion, feels like one of the more reliable individuals in terms of knowing what we can expect from him.
11. Cas Kopmels (Wingate)
Holding recent PRs ranging from 3:46 (1500) to 29:15 (10k), Cas Kopmels boasts some of the better range in this field. It remains to be seen if this race will unfold in a manner in which he's able to flex that mile speed, but Kopmels' back-to-back All-American honors at the 2022 and 2023 cross country national meets suggest that he also has the aerobic capacity to hang with an honest pace for awhile.
12. Harry Louradour (West Texas A&M)
Although he's more established on the grass, Harry Louradour appears to be on the greatest hot streak of his NCAA career after running PRs in three different events across his last three track meets. A 28:37 (10k) PR is one of the fastest in this field and that reszult implies that he can perhaps follow his acclaimed teammate, William Amponsah, to a top finish.
13. Brayden McLaughlin (Chico State)
Brayden McLaughlin hardly holds the fastest PR in this field (although he just ran a new personal best of 29:16), but he has very much earned a spot among these men. Consider that he has twice been a cross country All-American and has contested this event at a prior outdoor national meet, and you begin to realize that McLaughlin shouldn't be discounted as someone who could finish in the top-half of this race.
14. Josphat Meli (Harding)
There's an argument to be made that Josphat Meli has the widest range of potential outcomes in this race. The freshman narrowly fell short of All-American honors in two different events at the 2024 NCAA Indoor Championships and seems to be better as the distances increase. On the other hand, he has yet to emerge as an All-American or race the 10k at a national meet (he didn't compete in cross country this past fall), so we really don't know what to expect from this NCAA rookie who hails from the distance running mecca of Eldoret, Kenya.
15. Josh Pierantoni (Colorado Christian)
Josh Pierantoni is undoubtedly one of the most established athletes in this field, so we really don't care that he's lacking a top-flight 10k mark this spring. After all, he placed 5th in this event at the 2023 outdoor national meet and has postseason experience dating back to 2019. He also looks like he hasn't skipped a beat in 2024 after taking the fall months off.
16. JP Rutledge (Colorado Mines)
It feels easy (and reductive) to suggest that JP Rutledge has plateaued since joining Colorado Mines' distance powerhouse, largely because his 2021 cross country season suggests that he has a ceiling to rival nearly anyone in D2. And while his 2024 outdoor track campaign doesn't necessarily suggest it, Rutledge feels due for a return to All-American status. If anyone can get him there, it's Coach Chris Siemers.
17. Antonin Saint Peyre (Wingate)
Antonin Saint Peyre is surging following a 10k runner-up finish at his conference meet and a PR in the same event over his two most recent meets to open this month. With that being said, this race (his first at a national meet in any season) feels like it may be more of an acclimation and introduction process for Saint Peyre who figures to be helped by the presence of several teammates.
18. Matthew Storer (Colorado Christian)
A 10k win over the Colorado Mines contingent at the Dr. Dan Caprioglio Invite earlier this season was further proof that Matthew Storer deserves to be mentioned as a dark horse candidate to earn his first gold medal on the national stage after procuring silver (5k) last spring and bronze this past fall. That 10k victory came in March, sure, and Storer has raced just once since then. But that race was also more competitive than the RMAC 10k and among the deepest over that distance this season.
19. Sam Wilhelm (Alabama-Huntsville)
His somewhat recent breakout and modest (but respectable) national meet performances make Sam Wilhelm difficult to gauge. On the one hand, he feels like a near-lock to finish in the top-half of this field and seems more likely than not to emerge with an All-American finish in either this event or the 5k. But it's hard to argue that he has an advantage over several of the more-heralded individuals who will be doubling back (or even racing fresh) alongside him.
