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Three Sentences Or Less: 2024 D1 NCAA Outdoor Championship Men's 10k Preview
- Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
- May 30, 2024
- 7 min read
Editor's Note: Our TSR writers were asked to produce three sentences or less of analysis on every entrant in every distance event for every division.
The below athletes are ordered to match the start list
Predictions coming soon!
1. Habtom Samuel (New Mexico)
After running 26:53 over 10,000 meters back in March, it's hard to imagine Habtom Samuel losing this race. He is the overwhelming national title favorite and he should simply be able to run away from the field if he keeps the pace honest enough.
2. Denis Kipngetich (Oklahoma State)
The freshman from Oklahoma State has proven throughout this year that he has a ton of raw talent over the longer distances. In fact, his grand success on the grass suggests that he could be a 10k All-American come Wednesday. It's clear that the Cowboy rookie is still learning how to race in championship settings, but he hasn't necessarily had a truly poor race this year and in theory, this 10k battle should favor his skillset.
3. Patrick Kiprop (Arkansas)
For the most part, Patrick Kiprop has been fairly solid since January and his racing style (aggressive rather than tactical) should benefit him in this setting. The Arkansas talent has shown us over the last year that he has learned how to be a bit more poised with his in-race execution. However, there are also a very large handful of men in this field with comparable resumes.
4. Chandler Gibbens (Kansas)
At his best, Chandler Gibbens can absolutely be an All-American over this distance come Wednesday. However, his consistency throughout this year has left room for improvement, making him a bit of a high-upside wild card going into the national meet.
5. Ernest Cheruiyot (Texas Tech)
One of the few collegiate men who have dipped under 28 minutes over 10,000 meters this year, Ernest Cheruiyot has enough raw talent to match pretty much anyone in this field, minus Habtom Samuel. His performances at the Bryan Clay Invite and the BIG 12 Championships suggest that he still needs to work on his in-race execution, but he has also shown that his fitness can make up for a handful of tactical mis-steps that most freshman usually make.
6. Kirami Yego (Arkansas)
Throughout 2023, Kirami Yego proved that he is an All-American-caliber name across all three seasons, even finishing in 13th place at the most recent cross country national meet. However, Yego's performances in 2024 have not been quite up to par, making it challenging to place him as an All-American in our predictions. That said, knowing that he has the ceiling to attain that kind of honor makes Yego impossible to ignore going into Wednesday.
7. Aaron Las Heras (Northern Arizona)
This past winter, Aaron Las Heras was brilliant, producing jaw-dropping times of 7:37 (3k) and 13:16 (5k). Not only that, but the resume of this now-former Wake Forest star suggested that he was going to be at his best over 10,000 meters. But while his 28:16 (10k) mark at the Bryan Clay Invite is solid, there's no denying that Aaron Las Heras will need to exhibit his full potential in this event in order to be an All-American come Wednesday.
8. Cael Grotenhuis (Northern Arizona)
One of the more underrated names in this field, Cael Grotenhuis is quietly having a great breakout season. After winning his 5k heat at the Bryan Clay Invite in 13:38, the NAU talent took down Montana State's Matthew Richtman and Ben Perrin for the BIG Sky 10k title before qualifying for the national over 10,000 meters AND 5000 meters. On paper, he's not as proven as many of the other men in this field, but few opponents of his have the momentum that Grotenhuis does.
9. Sanele Masondo (Iowa State)
Sanele Masondo is someone who oozes raw talent and elite upside, but the first-half of this academic year was a struggle for the Cyclone star who had more poor races than good ones. That, however, has seemingly changed this spring. Not only has the former JUCO talent established greater consistency, but his BIG 12 title victory over 5000 meters also shows a far stronger understanding of in-race execution and late-race speed.
10. Adisu Guadia (Oklahoma State)
Had he not have to deal with the team tactics of the Iowa State men, Adisu Guadia would be a BIG 12 champion over 5000 meters this spring. And yet, it's the 10,000 meters where this Oklahoma State freshman clearly thrives. The only issue, however, is that Guadia has only raced three times since the cross country season, making it extremely challenging to analyze how he'll impact this race on the national stage.
11. Alex Maier (Oklahoma State)
It's been an odd season for Oklahoma State star Alex Maier who has been good this spring, maybe even great, but far from his elite top form. Of course, we said the same thing during the winter months before he had a phenomenal showing at the NCAA Indoor Championships. Given his history of thriving on the national stage, it is very hard to dismiss Maier from the All-American conversation.
12. Valentin Soca (California Baptist)
Valentin Soca has had sporadic moments of excellence throughout career at California Baptist. And after running a converted 3:39 mark for 1500 meters at the BIG West Championships, this is arguably the best that Soca has ever looked. Even so, he'll still have his work cut-out for him if the Lancer talent is going to truly contend for a top-eight finish.
13. Victor Kiprop (Alabama)
One of the few men in this field who can (maybe) keep things competitive with Habtom Samuel is Victor Kiprop who is a very hard name to dislike. The Alabama star has tons of national meet experience, top-tier personal bests and an improved understanding of race tactics in the second-half of his collegiate career. It would still be considered a huge upset if he took down Samuel, but his floor is just as high as anyone else's when it comes to earning All-American honors.
14. Will Anthony (Virginia)
This has been a breakout year for Will Anthony who has begun to pick up most of his momentum during the spring months. He is by no means an All-American lock, but with wins at the Raleigh Relays and the Virginia Challenge this spring, very few men in this field have a pair of victories that are as good as what Anthony boasts.
15. Alex Phillip (North Carolina)
The poise and composure that Alex Phillip showed over 10,000 meters en route to a win at the Bryan Clay Invite was massively encouraging. When you tack on the fact that he ran a 27:53 (10k) PR in that race, it feels like we can say with confidence that Alex Phillip can be All-American come Wednesday. However, the UNC veteran will face his toughest challenge yet as neither him nor any of his teammates will be dictating the front of this race.
16. Ian Kibiwot (Louisville)
It's clear that Ian Kibiwot is at his best over 10,000 meters as his 5000-meter performances, while still good, lack the same kind of consistency. If this Louisville talent can simply stay within himself, then the common and natural attrition of top names fading from the lead pack could result in the Cardinal runner becoming an All-American on a perfect day.
17. Skylar Stidam (Indiana)
If you look at Skylar Stidam's resume from the past year, you'll find a guy who has ripped off numerous personal bests across a variety of different racing distances. The BIG 10 champion over 5000 meters doesn't necessarily hold the flashiest times and he'll be an underdog going into Wednesday, but it's clear that he has steadily picked up promising momentum as of late.
18. Tom Brady (Michigan)
Tom Brady has only raced on three occasions this season, each time being the 10k. And while the Michigan veteran hasn't necessarily given us any reason to pick against him, it's also fair to say that he hasn't defeated as many top-tier names this season compared to some of his opponents. That said, Brady has enough experience and reliability to be considered as an outside/sleeper threat for All-American honors next week.
19. Nikodem Dworczak (Eastern Kentucky)
Despite entering the East Regional Championships as the 30th seed in the 10k, Nikodem Dworczak still found a way to put himself on the national stage. That was a massive performance where he clearly ran well past our expectations for him. Even so, it would take a fairly significant breakout race for this EKU talent to be a top-half finisher in this field.
20. Tyler Berg (Notre Dame)
When it comes to Tyler Berg, the Notre Dame graduate student has had a respectable season, although it's clear that his best race came in March at the Raleigh Relays. A top-half finish in this field would be considered a massive win for the former Ivy League runner, but that may also require Berg to improve upon his 28:34 (10k) by a noticeable margin.
21. Florian LePallec (Butler)
Yes, he may be the 21st seed, but I wouldn't count out Florian LePallec from being a top-half finisher in this field. In fact, he could even be an All-American if everything in this race breaks in his favor. With two excellent marks of 13:29 (5k) and 28:25 (10k) from earlier in the season and prior instances of running fast times over the longer distances, this 10k final may unfold in a way that favors him.
22. Dennis Kipruto (Alabama)
Upon the announcement that Dennis Kipruto would be entering the NCAA this year with a reported 60:51 PR in the half-marathon, the assumption was that he would be a juggernaut over the 10k distance as well. That hasn't quite been the case during the spring months, but advancing to the national meet as just a freshman should be beneficial in terms of gaining experience over the long-term.
23. Sam Lawler (Syracuse)
There's no denying that Sam Lawler is better on the grass than he is on the track, but his 2024 spring campaign showcased encouraging progression. Even so, he'll be a significant underdog in this field as many of the men who he'll be facing are simply faster over this distance.
24. Jack Jennings (Tulane)
There is tons of exciting and raw potential within Jack Jennings when it comes to the more endurance-centric races. However, his consistency has left much to be desired. He likely won't be an All-American, but he does feel like a bit of a wild card as to where he could place outside of the top-eight.
