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Three Sentences Or Less: 2023 D1 NCAA Indoor Championships Men's 3k Preview
- Ryan Winkel
- Mar 6, 2023
- 5 min read
Written by Ryan Winkel, edits and additional commentary via Garrett Zatlin
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Our TSR writers were asked to produce three sentences or less of analysis on every entrant in every distance event for every division. We will be slowly rolling out these previews over the week leading up to the indoor national meets. Stay tuned!
Predictions coming soon
The below list is ordered by seeding.
1. Drew Bosley (Northern Arizona)
A cross country stalwart, Drew Bosley has exceeded expectations this winter with his shockingly fast distance marks. His 7:36.42 (3k) collegiate record was partially overshadowed by Yared Nuguse’s incredible American record, but it does force us to view him as the national title favorite. Bosley is a true front-runner who thrives when races are fast, but it will be interesting to see how he handles a 3k race that could turn tactical.
2. Dylan Jacobs (Tennessee)
Another distance savant, the 2022 10k champion stepped up at the Millrose Games and was rewarded with a huge 3k PR, narrowly missing Bosley’s recent collegiate record. Dylan Jacobs has truly blossomed as of late and his consistency has been top-notch as well. On paper, this Tennessee ace has one of the more complete resumes in this field, but what race scenario gives him the best chance of securing NCAA gold?
3. Fouad Messaoudi (Oklahoma State)
Unlike the men covered above, Fouad Messaoudi tends to be a 3k runner with exceptional turnover rather than overwhelming endurance (although he probably has that, too). Few men have executed their races better than he has this winter and his dynamic resume makes it difficult to take him down in a championship battle. The Cowboy star can be a major threat if he can hang with the aerobic monsters that are Bosley and Jacobs.
4. Anass Essayi (South Carolina)
In the summer of 2021, Anass Essayi ran 3:34 for 1500 meters and made the Moroccan Olympic team. However, less than a year later, after an incredibly dominant outdoor track season, he recorded a DNF result in the prelims of the outdoor national meet. But with insanely fast marks of 3:50.46 (mile) and 7:41 (3k) this winter, as well as the ability to legitimately contend with top pro athletes, we have to consider Essayi as a national title contender, even if he is doubling back from the mile.
5. Ryan Schoppe (Oklahoma State)
Ryan Schoppe has run 3:55 (mile) and 7:41 (3k) this winter and has even split a more-impressive 3:52 anchor leg on Oklahoma State's DMR (which ran the collegiate record). With proven speed and a willingness to run from the front, will Schoppe and Messaoudi work together to control this field, or at least the chase pack? Like his teammate above, Schoppe is a crucial part of the Cowboys' goal of winning a DMR title, so he comes into this event on tired legs.
6. Yassen Abdalla (Tennessee)
Yaseen Abdalla came into this winter as a solid All-American-type runner with strong range, boasting PRs of 3:43 (1500), 7:51 (3k), 13:33 (5k) and 28:33 (10k), although that 3k time was actually a 7:46 mark after conversions. But this winter, after a fantastic 2022 cross country season, Abdalla has run 7:42 (3k) and has split 3:54 on the anchor leg of Tennessee's DMR. The Volunteer star is super explosive and has lethal turnover that could make him a factor in races that aren't complete barn-burners.
7. Ky Robinson (Stanford)
Although he is ranked at NCAA #7 in this event, don’t be fooled into thinking that Ky Robinson isn’t a title favorite/contender here. The Aussie distance runner opened his season with a marquee 13:11 (5k) personal best (and win) at Boston University, a casual 23rd place finish at the World XC Championships in his homeland and most recently a 7:42 (3k) mark only a few days after literally traveling across the world. Robinson is one of the most complete distance talents in this field as far as tactics, raw fitness and racing IQ are concerned.
8. Alex Maier (Oklahoma State)
Like many men on this list, Alex Maier thrives at longer distances. The Oklahoma State star feels like an underappreciated national-caliber talent at times despite showcasing tremendous consistency. Not only that, but Maier has quietly evolved into someone who holds a great understanding of positioning in ultra-fast fields.
9. Kieran Lumb (Washington)
Kieran Lumb looks to be the preferred anchor option for Washington's DMR this year, meaning that he won't be racing the 5k on day one and won't have to worry about the mile finals on day two. With the Huskies likely eyeing an overall team podium finish, look for Lumb to implement a 3k race plan that most safely positions himself for an All-American result.
10. Duncan Hamilton (Montana State)
An 8:18 (steeple) man from last spring, Duncan Hamilton comes into this race as a wild card given that his marks come with massive altitude conversions, translating to times of 7:43 (3k) and 3:52.99 (mile). Hamilton often opted for west coast and local meets, making it truly difficult to gauge how his conversions will translate to championship racing. However, with the national meet being held at altitude, a guy like Hamilton should have a huge advantage.
11. Sam Gilman (Air Force)
Sam Gilman came into these winter months as a very solid and even nationally competitive distance talent with personal bests of 7:47 (3k) and 13:25 (5k). However, his 7:43 PR over 3000 meters earlier this season is a solid improvement and in terms of experience/familiarity with this field, Gilman is probably one of the top names.
12. Brian Fay (Washington)
While Brian Fay’s 7:43 (3k) PR puts him down this list a bit, that mark came in a tactical race at the New Balance Indoor Grand Prix and it likely could have been faster. With a 3:52 mile PR and a 13:16 (5k) mark, one could argue that Fay's speed and strength combination makes him as much of a title favorite as Jacobs, Bosley and Robinson. With top marks across the distance events, Fay’s range makes him an intriguing and under the radar contender.
13. Casey Clinger (BYU)
Once a high school prodigy, Casey Clinger has been an NCAA Championship mainstay since returning from his mission. Lacking true mile speed, his strength in the longer distances indicates that an honest pace would benefit him. He also upset the Stanford trio in this exact event, meaning that he (theoretically) knows where he has to make his moves to be successful.
14. Jackson Sharp (Wisconsin)
Jackson Sharp enters this national meet with many questions unanswered. His 7:44 (3k) mark came at a home meet win in Chicago and he is undefeated in 2023 among the individual events. However, with the relative lack of depth in his conference, combined with "only" a 3:57 mile personal best, it’s hard to predict what Sharp could be capable of (for better or for worse) when tested against the best men in the country.
15. Cole Sprout (Stanford)
Cole Sprout has been a vitally important part of Stanford’s greatness over the past few years. His success in the longer distances, plus the fact that he'll be fresh for this event, makes it hard to imagine him not being an All-American. The Cardinal men have often emerged as one of the more reliable top-eight finishers on the national stage over the last few years.
16. Jesse Hamlin (Butler)
Jesse Hamlin's electric 7:44 (3k) mark from December was an excellent performance, especially given that he only placed 119th at NCAA XC Championships a few weeks prior. But since then, the Butler ace hasn't quite matched that kind of result at any other point this season. He's extremely versatile, so it is possible that in a tactical scenario, we could see the same burst of speed from Hamlin that we saw back in December.
