The Group Chat: Revisiting Regional Expectations

What was the most predictable distance race from the regional meets? Why?

Maura: I would say both the steeplechase for the men and women in the East region and West region. The steeplechase is such a technical event that competitors put a lot of time and effort into mastering and we saw almost all of the top contenders qualify for the NCAA Championships. Courtney Wayment (BYU) and Charlotte Prouse (New Mexico) finally got to race Joyce Kimeli (Auburn) and Hannah Steelman (NC State) on the women’s side while Bennett Pascoe (Arkansas State) and Kigen Chemadi (Middle Tennessee State) toed the line against Garrett Marsing (BYU) and Colton Johnson (Washington State).

Simply put, we finally got to see how the top talents stack up against each other when it all mattered the most and for the most part, everyone seemed to thrive. That’s fairly rare when you have so much talent in one race.

Garrett: The steeplechase was SUPER predictable. There were very few surprises and many of the top names, specifically in the West region, advanced as expected. However, I would also argue that the West region women’s 10k was probably the most predictable. I mean, just look at the 12 women who qualified. I think we can convincingly say that the 12 best women in that event and from that region qualified for Nationals. Sure, women like Frentheway and Poe were fringe qualifiers who didn’t advance, but their misses weren’t exactly stunning and it wasn’t like they were national qualifying locks.

Michael: The steeplechase does tend to be more predictable due to the technical nature of the event, making surprise qualifiers harder to come by. In my opinion, the 800 meter races in both regions were, for the most part, pretty predictable as well.

The 800 is incredibly deep across the board this year and there weren’t too many big names left out of the national meet. This was especially apparent in the women’s East region race, as the top-12 women all ran under 2:03, with the 13th place finisher (the first athlete out) coming across in 2:04. When the strongest athletes in the race decide to make it fast, it’s hard for anyone else to hang on and advance.

That said, a couple of big names did fail to advance to the national meet, such as Roshon Roomes (Iowa State) and Matt Wisner (Oregon) in the West region. Still, this seems to be more of a result of how deep the field was. There just aren’t enough spots for everyone who deserves one to go.

Which national qualifying misses were you the most surprised about?

Maura: I’ve got two answers here. Not seeing Jack Anstey (Illinois State) and Eduardo Herrera (Colorado) qualify in their respective events was surprising. Anstey, a 2019 All-American in the 1500, entered the NCAA West Regional Championships with a 3:39 PR from earlier in the season and after winning his prelim heat, he seemed like a safe bet to qualify for Nationals. However, he just didn’t have it over the last 100 meters of his semi-final and was just on the outside of qualifying.

As for Herrera, the Colorado ace was a shoe-in for the 5k given his recent successes. After running 13:24 to beat BYU’s Conner Mantz, Casey Clinger and Brandon Garnica at the Hayward Premiere meet, he had the ability to compete with his West region competitors. Unfortunately, last week was just not his day. It stinks to see one of the nation’s best 5k runners not get the chance to contest for the win against the likes of Oregon’s Cole Hocker and Cooper Teare and Iowa State’s Edwin Kurgat, especially given the fact that Herrera has run 3:38 for 1500 meters this year.

Garrett: On the men’s side, I’ve also got to go with Eduardo Herrera. That race had a fast finish, but we saw this Colorado veteran run away from the BYU distance stars at the beginning of the season at the Hayward Premiere meet. Unfortunately for him, he looked gassed late in this regional 5k race and just didn’t have the same pop that a few others did. Maybe he wasn’t anticipating the race to play out like it did, but whatever the reason was, it was still surprising to see him not qualify.

On the women’s side, I’ll have to say Nicole Fegans in the women’s 10k. This Georgia Tech star has been so darn good this year, throwing down top 5k and 10k marks throughout the season while working on her 1500 meter speed. After such massive success on the cross country course, this 10k race seemed like the perfect distance for her.

However, Fegans faltered a bit in the 10k (as did many top talents in this race) and surprised many by missing a top-12 spot to Nationals in that event. After winning the ACC title in the 10,000 meters in a time of 32:45 and running 15:37 for 5000 meters earlier this year, seeing someone of her caliber not qualify in this event was surprising. However, the Georgia Tech ace did salvage a trip to Eugene, Oregon with a national qualifying result in the 5000 meters.

Michael: I was somewhat surprised to see Sean Dolan (Villanova) not make it out of the East region in the 1500 meters. The freshman has had an incredible season so far, having taken 6th place in the mile at the NCAA Indoor Championships in March. However, he is still a relatively young guy and I suppose qualifying for NCAA’s is a pretty lofty expectation for me to impose on Dolan. Even so, I expected Dolan to make it to the NCAA Championships in what seems to be his best event, but he is still young and it may have just come down to a lack of experience.

On the women’s side, I was surprised that Allie Schadler did not qualify in the 5k. While none of the 12 qualifiers pulled off major upsets to get a bid to the NCAA Championships, I thought Schadler was a virtual lock. There are always going to be athletes who just don’t have that extra 1% needed to make the cut on any given day, but given the fact that she ran 15:33 for 5000 meters back in December, not seeing Schadler on the starting line in Eugene will be a bit of a surprise for me.

Whose postseason peak makes them more dangerous: Katy-Ann McDonald or Aurora Rynda?

Maura: I’m going to take Michigan’s Aurora Rynda for this one. Rynda has been quietly putting together a solid season in the 800 meters given the fact that she has only been competing against BIG 10 foes prior to the NCAA East Regional Championships. The Wolverine ace has dropped five seconds from her 2019 PR to eventually run a great mark of 2:01. Even though she was only 7th overall at her regional meet, her success at regular season and conference meets has to give her some much needed confidence when she takes on the best of the best at the NCAA Championships.

Garrett: Give me McDonald. She ran a huge personal best of 2:02 in the preliminary rounds of this regional meet which was super encouraging. However, what was even MORE encouraging was seeing her run another PR of 2:01 in the finals. She is clearly peaking better than almost anyone in the NCAA right now and her momentum is leaving her with new personal bests every time she toes the line. The LSU star is very experienced, has been getting better every year and has been a top name on my radar since the 2021 indoor track season began.

Michael: I’m going to give McDonald the edge here. She just keeps getting better, and if she continues to do so, she could be a threat to get on the podium at the NCAA Championships. McDonald’s progression has been nearly perfect this season, even from the SEC Championship to the regional meet. She took 2nd in the SEC, beating some big names and has carried over that momentum ever since. I wouldn’t want to be lining up against her in Eugene.

Whose postseason peak makes them more dangerous: James West or Jack Salisbury?

Maura: Definitely James West of Oregon. West had the opportunity to get revenge for getting disqualified from the 2019 NCAA West Regional Championships in the 1500. The Oregon Duck has remarkable marks of 1:48 and 3:34 and these could continue to indicate strong performances on his home track at NCAA’s. West might not be in the conversation to win right now, but his experience and recent peak is one that we should notice.

Garrett: This is a brutal question that doesn’t have a right answer. I think it depends on what you value more. Do you trust Salisbury’s breakout season and season-long consistency? Or do you trust West’s recent rebound performances and past history of major success? I don’t feel confident about choosing one over the other, but if I had to choose, I’d say West. His 3:38 from the regional meet was impressive and it was another major step in the right direction. He has a ton of momentum to build off of that performance and his ability to navigate multiple races in a single weekend is well documented. For that, I’m going with the Oregon veteran.

Michael: James West has a lot of prior success behind him and it’s great to see him back in top form. West is an established talent at the top of the NCAA, and despite getting lost in Oregon’s depth at times, he is on most people’s radar as someone to watch.

Jack Salisbury, on the other hand, has had a couple rougher seasons in the past and is finally hitting the level that so many people thought he could reach as a senior in high school five years ago. Salisbury looked virtually unstoppable during the regular season and is peaking at just the right time.

Despite all of that, I think Salisbury is still someone who comes into the national meet a bit underrated which could be just what he needs. On the starting line in Eugene, all eyes will be on Yared Nuguse, Eliud Kipsang and the Oregon Ducks. However, Salisbury is a major contender, having just run 3:37.18, and he has the opportunity to really make a name for himself in the NCAA final -- something James West has already done.

Which surprise national qualifiers have the best chance of being All-Americans at Nationals?

Maura: Isaac Basten (Drake) has a shot at being All-American in the 1500. Typically a 5k runner, Basten has the luxury of training alongside teammate Adam Fogg and he is peaking at the right time in the shorter event. At the NCAA West Regional Championships, the Drake runner dropped three seconds off of his PR to finish 2nd in his heat in a time of 3:40.

Clio Ozanne-Jacques (Ole Miss) wasn’t on my radar in the women’s 10k until her 4th place finish at the NCAA East Regional Championships in a new 33:39 PR. The Ole Miss senior has had a respectable career, but she has been pretty quiet the last few seasons after struggling with injuries. To see her rebound in her senior year is promising and if she races like she did at conference and regionals, All-American honors are possible.

Garrett: Katie Rose Blachowicz (Notre Dame) is a name who I didn’t expect to qualify for the national meet, but when you look at her recent momentum and postseason peak, it’s easy to understand that she’s trending in the right direction. This Notre Dame talent earned a PR of 16:19 at the Drake Relays, ran a 10k PR of 33:32 at the ACC Championships and just recently qualified for the national meet. She may not have the star-studded resume that a few others do, but she’s slowly gaining momentum and in the 10k, almost anything can happen given how long the race is. Of the surprise qualifiers, I really like Blachowicz’s chances.

On the men’s side, I’m becoming a bigger and bigger fan of Jesse Hunt. It wasn’t necessarily a surprise that teammate Brandon Tubby qualified, but seeing this UNC veteran run 3:39 en route to a qualifying spot is huge. Hunt has been a super consistent veteran for a while now and has consistently improved throughout his career. Admittedly, I always viewed him as a Tier B miler -- someone who was exceptionally talented, but didn’t have the marks to be nationally competitive. That, however, has since changed ever since he ran a PR of 3:39. His experience and underrated tactical prowess could make him an All-American next week.

Michael: Binghamton’s Emily Mackay may not necessarily be a surprise qualifier, but she's an underrated name who has been outstanding all year long. She recently made her presence known in the East region 5k (once again) as the third qualifier from the region. She ran 15:48 in that race which isn’t necessarily on the level of runners like Mercy Chelangat, Elly Henes or Joyce Kimeli, but this is also the second track 5k of Mackay’s collegiate career.

Her first effort? Two weeks before at Toledo’s Rocket Invitational, a race Mackay won by nearly a minute, she also ran 15:48. All I see here is untapped potential in a new event, and I think Mackay could give us the surprise of the meet at the NCAA Championships.

On the men’s side, AJ Ernst of Providence entered the East Regional Championships with a season’s best of 3:45 in the 1500 (although he had run 4:00 in the mile and qualified with the 1500 meter split from that race). Ernst ran 3:43 in the prelim, and then delivered a breakout performance of 3:39 in the final to take 8th place and punch his ticket to his first national meet on the track.

It’s clear that Ernst is getting hot at just the right time, but he will still go into the NCAA Championships as an underdog. If he can navigate the prelim and get into the final, I like his chances of rolling with a fast pace and earning his first All-American honors.

Give us one bold prediction for the national meet...

Maura: It’s only right that we get one final power outage to cap off the season.

Garrett: We see a new collegiate record in the men’s 1500 meters.

Michael: Cole Hocker doubles up again to make it four titles in one year.