The Group Chat: Indoor Nationals (Part 2)

By: Michael Weidenbruch, Ben Weisel, Sean Collins, Garrett Zatlin

Read up on Part 1 here

Also, if you haven't already, be sure to enter our Prediction Contest by clicking here...

Over/under 38.5 - The number of points the Wisconsin men will score in the distance events

Sean: Under. They need to average 7.7 points per opportunity to make 38.5 points. That’s just absurd to expect.

Garrett: Under, but not by much. Let’s say McDonald scores 10 points in the 5k (1st) and 8 points in the 3k (2nd). Then Wisconsin scores 5 points in the DMR (4th). Meanwhile, Hoare scores 10 points in the mile (1st) and 4 points in the 3k (5th). That puts them at 37 points despite a handful of great performances. If they replicate those finishes and earn a better position in the DMR, they could definitely break that 38.5 barrier, but I think it’s just too much.

Ben: I am all aboard the under train. For me, it comes down to whether or not Hoare runs in the DMR. If he does, then I think they have a legitimate shot because I agree with Garrett’s math. I just don’t know how well Hoare will be able to run in the mile and 3k if he runs the mile prelims and the DMR the day before.

Michael: Under. I think Hoare and McDonald each have two great opportunities to pick up individual points, but adding in the DMR will make it tricky. I wouldn’t be surprised to see one or both of them pull out of the relay which would make it difficult to get to 38.5.

Garrett: Maybe TSR should do an over/under podcast...

Over/under 20.5 - The number of points Arkansas women will score in the distance events

Michael: I think they can go over. They could get close to halfway to the 20.5 threshold in the DMR alone and then some big performances in the 3k could give them a boost. I think Gregory and Viljoen will do very well in the mile and push them over.

Ben: I am going to go out on a limb and say that Arkansas hits the over. Gregory could absolutely score 10 points on her own, and I believe that the DMR will earn them at least 5 points. That puts them at 14 with Werner and Viljoen left needing to score 7 points which is very realistic.

Garrett: I think it’s very possible that they go over. They have three women in four individual events and that doesn’t even count the DMR. The problem is that they need a few top-tier finishes to get them to that total. Their distance group is good, but they may not have the firepower that the Wisconsin men do. Regardless, I think there are enough opportunities to get to 21+ points.

Sean: Arkansas goes over. I think it’s safe to assume Gregory and Viljoen score 10 points in the mile. I also think that Gregory and Werner will combine for 3 points in the 3K. Arkansas then gets 2nd in the DMR for 8 points. That’s 21. I’m high on the Arkansas women generally because they have run spectacularly lately and they’ll want to avenge their NCAA XC experience.

Biggest snub (name left out) of Nationals?

Sean: Generally, I don’t like this question because there are no selections, just time qualifying. But I’ll answer who should be most disappointed. That’s Adva Cohen. Cohen ran 9:05.04 for 3K which would’ve qualified in the 2018. She also ran 15:42.85 for 5K. That would have been 8th in 2018!!! 8TH! Pretty unbelievable that mark doesn’t make NCAA's this year.

Garrett: It jaw-dropping that you could run 15:42 and not make Nationals. It blew me away. We were a few weeks out from the regular season ending and you could already tell how fast this season was going to be for the distance events. The same can be said for the men.

Garrett: On the women’s side, I’m pretty bummed that we didn’t get to see the women from Ohio State qualify in the DMR. Julia Rizk has proven to be a top-tier miler and Sean even mentioned that they would be a team to watch midway through the season. This is a talented group that has come a long way and I’m sure they’ll be hungry for revenge during outdoors...

Michael: This might not exactly count, but I am surprised not to see Lilli Burdon toeing the line individually. Granted, she is on Washington’s DMR which has a great shot at the podium, but Burdon ran 9:03 for 3k and didn’t make it individually. She was the first one out in that event which surprised me a lot; none of the top 16 women in the 3k scratched. Most years, Burdon would have made it in.

Sean: If I have to give an answer for the men, I will say I’m surprised not to see Rory Linkletter qualify. He should still be happy though since he is leading the Canadian National Team to Worlds and was a top five finisher at NACAC's in February.

Garrett: For the men, I can’t help but think that Cameron Griffith should be toeing the line for the mile or 3k. Yes, he’s running the DMR (so I’m kind of cheating on this question), but when a 3:59/7:49 guy (who ran 3:59/7:52 this season) is left on the sidelines, you can’t help but feel like he should with the nation’s best.

Ben: I think it is a shame that we don’t get to see Gilbert Boit run at Nationals. He took down a very strong SEC field in the 5k and then followed it up with a 4th place finish in the 3k. He ran 13:42 and can clearly compete in a tactical race. Unfortunately, we won’t get to see Boit flying around the last lap at Nationals.

Michael: I was surprised to see Avery Bartlett miss qualifying in the 800. His 1:47.32 PR puts him solidly in the elite bracket of the NCAA, but he just came up short this season. His season best of 1:48.39 is just .3 seconds off the last spot, and I think he could have performed at a higher level than that at NCAA's.

Which #16 seed has the best chance of getting on the podium?

Garrett: I struggled with this one. For me, it comes down to Clayton Young in the 3k and Vincent Kiprop in the 5k. In the end, I’ll take Clayton Young. He’s due for a good performance at Nationals and his 5k win at Iowa State was so impressive that I have no reason to believe that he can’t be top eight at Nationals.

Michael: Vincent Kiprop. He was runner-up in the 10k outdoors last year and the #1 and #16 seeds in the men’s 5k are only separated by 10 seconds. Kiprop was 2nd in the 5k during indoors last year and after redshirting cross country, I imagine he has a lot of strength that he’s waiting to show off.

Ben: This was a tough question to think about because it is like asking which #14 seed will make it the furthest in the NCAA basketball tournament which is to say not very far. That said, I agree with Michael on taking Kiprop. He has proven that he can compete on the highest level. The same can’t be said for the other #16 seeds. Also, be on the look out for Dominic Perretta from Penn State in the 800 who beat Cooper Williams to win the BIG 10 title. It is unlikely that he makes it to the podium because of how talented the 800 field is, but he might finish the highest out of the any of the #16 seeds.

Sean: I think Clayton Young in the 3K, too. Young is the #3 seed in the 5K and clearly is in shape enough to make a difference. Plus, he’s got teammate Connor Mantz in the race as well. My Ivy and PA roots will be cheering for Sam Ritz of Columbia, though.

Garrett: I also thought about Ritz, he is great tactician who has clearly upped his fitness to a new level this year. He's sneaky good.

Ben: For the women, this was even harder. My pick? Sarah Feeny from Utah. My reasoning? The mile field is so tight that as long as you make the final you have a chance to earn a spot on the podium.

Garrett: I'm with you, Ben. I think it can actually be Sarah Feeny of Utah. Yes, it took a ton of scratches for her to even get in, but the 3k and 5k are so stacked that it seems almost impossible to break into that top eight. On the flip side, the mile field is wide-open and is not nearly as crowded at the top of the NCAA leaderboard.

Sean: Abbie McNulty in the 5K. I know this absolutely bonkers given how deep the event is, but she’s one of only five people to not run her qualifying time in 2019 (as opposed to December 2018) so I think that gives her a real shot. Plus, the pace has potential to be flying from the get-go and maybe having teammate Fiona O’Keeffe in the race will each other stay in control and pick off anyone who dies toward the end.

Michael: Abbie McNulty is also my pick. Her seed time may be almost 30 seconds off of Kurgat’s #1 spot, but McNulty has had a bit of a breakout season and I can see her surprising some people.

Which runner/relay has the most to gain or lose from a legacy standpoint this weekend?

Michael: Jessica Hull can make or break her legacy this weekend. She has a cross country team title, an indoor DMR title, and an outdoor 1500 meter title. Picking up a 3k title will be challenging, but if she can do it I think she can be considered one of the best female runners in NCAA history. If she doesn’t win...her legacy is not ruined, but she has picked up some big wins during indoors this year and winning the 3k title would bring it altogether for her.

Ben: I think Karisa Nelson could put herself on another level historically if she can win her second indoor mile. This is a feat that few have done, and it would validate her legacy as one of the best middle distance runners during her time as a collegiate.

Garrett: I’ll go with Allie Ostrander on this one. She’s proven that she can win a national title in the steeplechase, but she has been unable to secure NCAA gold in the traditional distance events (3k and 5k) along with cross country. A gold medal would show that she can compete with the women from New Mexico and that she is truly one of the elites in what is arguably the greatest era of women’s collegiate distance running ever.

Sean: I’m torn between Ednah Kurgat and Weini Kelati. Kurgat has the potential to finally earn a track title, defend her result from the BU 5K in December, and show that she can come out on top in a championship race. Kelati can gain validation by winning her first NCAA title as she takes over the New Mexico program from Kurgat and Prouse. Both Kelati and Kurgat need a track title to bolster their legacy, especially Kurgat since she’s a senior.

Garrett: For the men, I’ll actually go with Notre Dame’s DMR. The program has seen a massive shift in their overall talent level in the past year. After winning the ACC title over Syracuse in cross country, the Fighting Irish will be able to establish themselves as a modern-day distance running powerhouse by taking home gold. If they take home the title, they’ll let the rest of the NCAA know that they aren’t going anywhere other than up anytime soon.

Ben: Another distance star that could see their legacy enhanced is Oliver Hoare. The Badger has earned the top position in our power rankings even over more decorated runners such as Fisher and McDonald. Winning the mile would validate his surprise 1500 meter title from last spring and he would be regarded as the best miler in the country. This, though, is small potatoes compared to what could happen to his legacy. IF he wins the mile AND the 3k, then we are looking at one of the most dominant distance runners we have seen since Cheserek. No one has won two events at Indoor Nationals since Ches. Beating McDonald and Fisher in the process would also put Hoare on a different plane. Now, I’m not saying Hoare could be this generation’s Cheserek, but I think he could legitimately stake the claim that he is the best distance runner since Ches with two wins this weekend.

Michael: I have to go with Grant Fisher here. After a thrilling victory in the 5k outdoors in 2017, Fisher has come up short a number of times. He lost to Morgan McDonald on the cross country course, but his win in the 3k at the Millrose Games sets him up for a stellar postseason. Fisher is surely hungry for the win and getting it will prove that he hasn’t lost his edge.

Sean: Blake Haney. Before people react too strongly, Haney is remembered as one of the best milers in the NCAA from his 2015/2016 seasons, but has been lackluster lately. He can either cement himself a great miler by returning to the podium, or he can fall into the list one year stars.

Garrett: Big fan of this pick. I love the idea that Blake Haney can return to his former glory. He’s a stud and can truly be one of the country’s best milers once again.

Give us a massive bold prediction for the men and women’s distance races that absolutely no one is expecting...

Garrett: In regards to the women, I will say that someone in the 3k or 5k gets disqualified. Those fields are going to be so crowded with so many women who will want to fight for a national title. This may cause some pushing, shoving, falling, and DQing (although I am not rooting for that to happen).

Garrett: As for the men, UCLA’s Robert Brandt can win a national title. There, I said it. He’s an experienced championship competitor who is gaining serious momentum at the end of the season. He knows how to race with the nation’s best. If he doesn’t win, he’ll be top three. You heard it here first.

Sean: The Texas men come away with two NCAA Championships wins.

Ben: I love this because Worley could absolutely win the mile, but the fire burns bright by predicting Alex Rodgers to win the 3k. Unless of course you are predicting a Worley win and a DMR win which is much more plausible.

Michael: Obsa Ali wins the 5k. He’s the #8 seed and has hardly gotten any attention. He’s the reigning 3k steeplechase champion (almost entirely due to Brian Barraza’s fall, but still...) and deserves much more hype.

Michael: On the women’s side, I say Allie Ostrander competes in the 3k, 5k, and DMR and comes away with at least two wins.

Ben: I am no longer sitting because my chair has been burned by these takes. My goodness! With that said my prediction for the men is that 0 points will be scored between NAU and BYU.

Sean: Woah.

Ben: For the women, I think Alicia Monson becomes a double champion in the 5k and 3k.

Garrett: I feel like that’s just a prediction. Personally, I wouldn’t be surprised to see her pull that off.

Sean: This is my super outlandish pick. Sharon Lokedi anchors the Kansas DMR to a win after running the 5K minutes before.

Garrett: Sean, yours is so outrageous that I might believe it could happen.