The Group Chat: Exchange Zone (Part One)

The last few weeks have been jam-packed with tons of headlines regarding transfers and international roster additions. In fact, there have been so many developments that we needed to bring our readers a two-part breakdown highlighting some of the biggest and best athlete transitions within the NCAA.

Let's begin, shall we?

Which group of new additions was more important for their respective programs? Oklahoma State or Penn State?

Maura: I’m liking the newest injection of talent for the Oklahoma State men after adding Fouad Messaoudi and Hafez Mahadi to their roster. I think together, they could be nationally competitive stars who continue to make the Cowboys a powerhouse program more than they already were.

Messaoudi’s range, based on his marks of 3:38 (1500) and 13:55 (5k), should bode well for him in the NCAA when he toes the line against some of the nation’s best distance talents, specifically in tactical situations.

Meanwhile, seeing Hafez Mahadi’s 1:48 personal best for 800 meters should give Oklahoma State another chance to score in the middle distance events. He'll pair up nicely with Juan Diego Castro and be able to challenge the Iowa State men and Texas men for points at the half-mile distance come the BIG 12 Indoor & Outdoor Championships.

Although the Cowboys have one less incoming newcomer than Penn State, the additions of these two international talents gives Oklahoma State firepower from the 800 meters up to the 5000 meters, and potential scoring on the cross country course as well.

Ben: While I do believe that Oklahoma State is adding the better group, I think this question is phrased in a way that actually makes this much trickier to figure out.

The Nittany Lions very much needed this injection of talent. Not only that, but Olivier Desmeules and Yukichi Ishii fit perfectly with the program’s middle distance focus. Ishii, in particular, is a fascinating one to watch as he moves from Japan. With the amount of long-distance talent that we have seen come from that country (check out the Hakone Ekiden), it will be interesting to see how he develops in Happy Valley as a middle distance standout.

Simply put, the Nittany Lions needed to reload for the long-term in the middle distances and they did exactly that with Desmeules and Ishii. For that reason, I'll go with Penn State.

Gavin: Given Penn State’s relative lack of established transfer success and international recruiting compared to Oklahoma State’s status as one of the top transfer destinations, I’m tempted to say that the Nittany Lions will benefit more relative to the Cowboys.

However, I think the quality of Oklahoma State’s additions will have a greater impact for their program. Don’t get me wrong, the Nittany Lions’ new additions are notable; especially 1:48 man Oliver Desmeules.

But one of the Cowboys’ newest signees, Hafez Mahadi, has run 1:48 himself. Not only that, but the headline talent of this Oklahoma State group, Fouad Messaoudi, becomes an All-American candidate right away with his 3:38 personal best for 1500 meters.

With freshman eligibility, these could be two of the BIG 12’s next superstars.

Sam: It’s Oklahoma State, and it’s not even close. On paper, you have two solid groups of recruits, but the difference here is within the existing programs.

Penn State is worlds behind Oklahoma State right now. Looking back on the national leaderboard from the 2021 outdoor season, the disparity is evident. Penn State had two national rankings across all of the distance events. Oklahoma State had nine. In the fall, Penn State placed 4th as a team in a weak region during cross country. Oklahoma State was third...at the NCAA XC Championships.

If Penn State had a better foundation in place, this might be closer, but their program is a couple tiers below the Cowboys right now.

With Grace Pagone moving from Nebraska to Grand Valley State, what is her ceiling at the D2 level?

Maura: Pagone was a solid competitor for Nebraska, placing amongst the middle of the Huskers' pack on both the grass and the track. She saw a little bit of a breakthrough this past cross country season when she finished 14th at the Chile Pepper XC Festival, 12th at the Bradley Pink Classic and 64th at the Midwest Regional Championships.

Pagone’s 64th place finish at the regional meet was a 94-place improvement from her previous best.

Things can only go up from here for Pagone when she joins one of the NCAA's best D2 programs in Grand Valley State. She has run respectable times of 16:51 (5k) and 34:55 (10k), leading us to believe that she can probably be a national qualifier on the track and potentially an All-American on the grass.

Of course, this is also assuming that Pagone can replicate that level of success with the Lakers and have her best performances on a consistent basis.

Ben: Pagone has All-American potential on the grass if she can continue to improve with a powerhouse like Grand Valley State. On the track, she could be an All-American scorer for the Lakers in the 5000 meters.

However, it is tricky, especially now, to fully translate performances from the D1 level to the D2 level, but Pagone has certainly shown strong potential with her times on the track.

She will need to continue to improve, but based on last year’s progress, it would not be surprising to see her take another big step forward in 2022 and deliver on these All-American expectations.

Gavin: Her ceiling is an All-American. Pagone’s personal bests place her within last year’s national qualifying marks for the 5000 meters during indoors and for the 10,000 meters during outdoors.

In theory, this move allows her impact to be felt more atop of the D2 ranks as a key name for a powerhouse program rather than a team that was in the middle of the pack in the BIG 10.

With two years of track eligibility left, along with a season of cross country, Pagone should have her sights set on multiple national meet berths and a couple of All-American finishes.

Sam: Realistically, she’s a fringe national meet contender at GVSU. Her Nebraska career was nothing crazy, although it was respectable, and while she may be stepping down to the D2 level, that doesn’t mean things are suddenly much easier.

There’s a chance that the change of scenery and (potentially) less pressure at Grand Valley State will help her find her groove into further becoming an All-American that we think she can be.

Fill in the blank: Seb Anthony will be _________ for the Virginia Tech Hokies.

Maura: A wild card in the middle distance events.

Ben: A DMR difference maker. With Bashir Mosavel-Lo moving to Notre Dame, Anthony will be the perfect last piece for a Virginia Tech team that is returning three sub-4:00 milers.

Gavin: One of the top half-milers on the east coast. Anthony’s solid personal best of 1:48 and established national meet success at the D2 level gives him the inside track on being next in a long line of Hokies to be a middle distance force in the ACC and in the NCAA as a whole.

Sam: Underwhelming. He’s not the first big D2 name to move up and he won’t be the last. There have plenty of notable names who have moved up from the D2 to D1 level, but it's not always a given that they'll be immediate superstars.

Some have been really good, especially on the women's side, but none of them have been shell-shocking, either. Anthony will probably be good, but you’ve got to be really good to make a name at the next level.

Who will win a D1 national title in the 800 meters first? Esther Seeland at Virginia (who is not joining UVA until the start of next academic year), Avi’Tal Wilson-Perteete at Texas A&M or Keely Small at Oregon?

Maura: History often repeats itself, especially when you run the 800 meters for Texas A&M. Given that, it is far more likely that Avi’Tal Wilson-Perteete will follow in the footsteps of NCAA champions like Donavan Brazier (2016), Sammy Watson (2018), Jazmine Fray (2019) and Olympic champion Athing Mu (2021).

She already has the elite credentials and has had national meet success. Joining a powerhouse middle distance program that will further refine her talent gives her the best chance to win NCAA gold first.

Ben: I like Keely Small’s chances the most, mainly because his year’s field looks awfully crowded and open for the taking. With Aaliyah Miller, Lindsey Butler and Claire Seymour all returning, I don’t see Wilson-Perteete taking home the title despite, as Maura mentioned, Texas A&M’s great track record.

The incoming Duck, Small, has run 54.97 for the 400 meters and 2:00 for the 800 meters which would put her right at the top podium if she can replicate those performances in the NCAA.

While she is coming back from an injury, she should be ready to race for the title by the spring assuming that she's at 100% by then.

Sam: Small has the best chance of any of the three. Her previous results are a level above everyone else in the NCAA, but they’re just that -- previous results.

Small is coming off of a fracture in her back and that’s not a walk in the park as far as recovery is concerned. The thoughts I have about Seeland are similar to those on Seb Anthony (see above) and if Wilson-Perteete was going to win one, she would have already done it.

I’m not overly confident in any of the three, but Small has the best chance of the trio.

Gavin: I agree with Ben and Sam that Keely Small has the highest ceiling of the group, but I like Avi’Tal Wilson-Perteete’s chances to win a national title the most.

She’s already been close, and perhaps her graduate transfer to the half-mile factory known as Texas A&M is the last push she needs to get there. Small, meanwhile, is coming off of an injury and could also pursue the mile or 1500 meters instead of the 800 meters. As for Esther Seeland, she has won NCAA gold, albeit at a lower level (D3), and has a slower PR than the other two.

With all of that in mind, give me the veteran (Wilson-Perteete) who gets a change of scenery.