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The Group Chat (D2): Does Adams State Have a New Low-Stick? Plus, GVSU's Improving Stars & Bold Predictions
- TSR Collaboration
- Sep 25, 2024
- 12 min read
Updated: Sep 27, 2024
Written by Marissa Kuik, Garrett Zatlin & Gavin Struve
Questions, edits and additional commentary via Gavin Struve & Garrett Zatlin
While there weren't any Division Two meets as significant as the John McNichols Invite was for the Division Three scene last weekend, there were still a handful of invitationals that added to our early season understanding of the D2 cross country picture.
As such, we rounded up the group chat to break it all down as we sit almost exactly two months out from the 2024 NCAA XC Championships with much still to learn.
Who was more impressive relative to expectations in the women's Roy Griak Invitational “Maroon” race: Augustana (SD) (TSR #5)? Or U-Mary (preseason "Just Missed")?
Marissa: U-Mary was more impressive relative to expectations simply because Augustana (SD), I believe, performed up to their lofty expectations. The Vikings have a loaded lineup and podium potential, so it was their race to lose.
They fulfilled their expectation of winning, but there's not much that they could have done to exceed expectations against a strong (but not elite) field like this one. Meanwhile, the runner-up team U-Mary looked very solid, with their top-three finishing close to each other in a competitive field. Alyssa Becker couldn't have been better, taking the win. Their second runner was close behind in 4th place and the Marauders put a third woman in the top-12.
That's a very strong start to the season for a team that's looking to improve after being good last year, but barely securing a top-20 finish at the cross country national meet.
Gavin: U-Mary was more impressive relative to expectations despite finishing with over twice as many points as Augustana (45 points to 91 points). With that in mind, these results left me thinking, "Yeah, that feels about right" for the Vikings and "Wow, that's a pretty positive performance" when examining the U-Mary's collective effort.
This race said more about the Marauders' parts than their whole, but the upside is clearly there for this group to crash our top-10 team rankings at some point this season.
Alyssa Becker looked like the version of herself that was a top-half All-American back in the fall of 2021, as she finished ahead of graduated (and unattached) Winona State superstar Kaylee Beyer on Friday.
But fellow senior Kristine Kalthoff placing 4th was the even more surprising result -- given her status as someone who has yet to crack the top-125 in two NCAA XC Championships appearances -- as she finished ahead of multiple proven All-Americans.
Andrijana Fundak and Elizabeth Acheson also deserve praise for finishing among the top-18 individuals in a 300-person field. U-Mary was actually ahead of Augustana (SD) through three runners!
The key will be the Marauders finding a serviceable fifth scorer who can close the gap to the rest of the scoring lineup. Doing so would simultaneously raise this team's ceiling and floor from a probable top-half team at the cross country national meet to a top-10 team.
Garrett: I think the answer to this question depends on how you look at these results.
Yes, relative to expectations, U-Mary was probably more impressive. Their top-three scoring contingent was highly impressive and they were the only other team in the field to crack 100 points. Augustana (SD), meanwhile, was expected to win the meet with ease -- and they did.
However, in the results, you'll notice that the Vikings put four women in the top-11. One of those women was Aubrey Surage who was an All-American last fall. The one thing that we were looking to see out of this team was greater firepower next to Surage. And three other names stepping up in a significant way, you have to wonder if Augustana suddenly has three or four true low-sticks instead of just one.
If that's the case, then that development is arguably more important and potentially more impressive than what U-Mary showed us on Friday.
How do you think Butler transfer Abby Olson’s win (against attached runners) at the Spartan Invitational impacts our expectations for the GVSU women this fall?
Marissa: Abby Olson's emergence further solidifies Grand Valley State as a podium team.
Going into this season, we knew that the Lakers (TSR #3) would be solid up front with the return of Lauren Kiley, Allie Arnsman and Abby VanderKooi. However, we were not sure how great of an effect Abby Olson's introduction would have on their lineup and whether she could translate her long distance track fitness to the grass.
Nonetheless, Olson finished as the top collegian in her first race as a Laker, behind only unattached (and graduated) GVSU superstar Klaudia O’Malley. Once Kiley joins the lineup after not racing in the season opener, it appears that the Lakers will have three potent scoring options up front.
Gavin: Abby Olson's introduction into Grand Valley State's scoring lineup increases their chances of a sixth-straight top-half podium finish.
Had we known that Olson would seemingly assimilate so quickly into the top-half of the Lakers' varsity group, we may have placed the defending national champions at TSR #2 behind Adams State and ahead of Western Colorado.
GVSU has a strong returning trio, and Olson should not only add more firepower to that group, but also assuage the backend scoring uncertainty and the need for a more inexperienced runner to emerge.
As Marissa hinted at, Olson is more proven on the track. She ran PRs of 16:42 (5k) and 34:51 (10k) earlier this year, but brought some solid cross country results as well (including twice placing top-30 at the BIG East XC Championships).
It's too early to pencil her in as an All-American lock, but Olson's track fitness gives her the baseline of being a scorer, and her debut couldn't have gone much better from a team and individual standpoint.
Garrett: I gotta be honest, I don't really think her result alters the national conversation in any significant way. Adams State is still the overwhelming national title favorite and it's going to take a ton of scoring to defeat the Western Colorado women.
We placed Grand Valley State at TSR #3 in our preseason cross country rankings simply because we trusted Coach Jerry Baltes and his ability to suddenly find a new star low-stick. Sure enough, the Lakers seemingly have just that in Olson. Even so, it's going to take massive performances from the women behind her, Kiley, Arnsman and VanderKooi for this team to truly shatter expectations.
Does Caleb Futter’s win over many of Michigan State’s top men alter our expectations for him this season? If so, how much?
Marissa: I think that Caleb Futter's victory at the 2024 Auto-Owners Spartan Invitational puts him into the top-10 conversation, nationally. When we think back to past years that Grand Valley State has run at this meet, Tanner Chada is another Lakers name who comes to mind who won this meet against Division One adversaries.
We also know that Futter has finished in the top-15 at the cross country national meet before, even if he wasn't an All-American last fall. This kind of season opener shows us that he has the capability to get back to that form and perhaps build upon it after winning the national mile title earlier this year.
Gavin: In contrast to what we saw in the women's race in East Lansing, Michigan earlier this month, the home team fielded the majority of its men's varsity contingent. That means that Caleb Futter won a race against a top-25 Division One team. He did so by just over a second, seemingly utilizing his middle distance speed in order to secure the victory.
Given that he had finished no higher than 8th in this meet in three previous seasons, this result signals that Futter (TSR #17 in our preseason individual rankings) could be further improving and ready to challenge for a spot comfortably in the top-15 if not comfortably in the top-10 at the 2024 NCAA XC Championships.
Garrett: I do believe that Futter's recent win is important in the sense that his upper-echelon fitness from the track has seemingly translated to the grass. And like Marissa mentioned, I can't ignore the history of success that top finishers at the Spartan Invite have gone on to have.
However, I don't know if we've ever really questioned Futter's fitness. He won the mile national title this past winter, has been viewed as one of the best steeplechasers in the country (at least for D2) and was a top-15 All-American during the fall of 2022.
Instead, I think most of our questions pertain to how consistent Futter can be at this level. Certain races of his have been better than others and his national meet results are a little all over the place.
Even so, this is one of the best cross country results of his career and another performance like this will show far greater assurance that Futter, at his very best, could potentially flirt with the top-10 in our rankings this fall.
Adams State didn’t field a full varsity lineup at their home meet, but seemingly introduced a new low-stick, as Katie Hughes placed 3rd ahead of several All-Americans. Do you see her cracking the Grizzlies’ top-seven and where in that lineup?
Marissa: I think it is possible that Katie Hughes could sneak into Adams State's top-seven, but I am not sure if she will consistently stay there. I could see her doing so at some of the meets where Adams State is able to field more than seven women, like at the RMAC XC Championships.
By the time it comes to the end of the season, however, like the regional and national meets, she will have to fight for her spot. The Joe I. Vigil Open definitely gives some good idea of where runners are at fitness-wise compared to other rust-busters, but a lot can change throughout a loaded season of races.
All that is to say Hughes' finish was impressive, but it does not guarantee that she is going to be in the top-seven, because of the caliber of the Grizzlies’ lineup.
Gavin: Let's break this down further and overanalyze the Grizzlies' embarrassment of riches. Perhaps you thought GVSU has an overabundance of All-American candidates? Our preseason individual rankings featured seven Adams State women in the top-20 and another as a projected All-American by virtue of being a "Just Missed" name.
While six of those eight women competed in their home opener earlier this month, the top-two either didn't race or didn't finish. Maggie McCleskey, their seventh-ranked runner, won the meet and Emily Schoellkopf, their sixth-ranked runner, placed runner-up just ahead of Hughes. That already signals that perhaps we shouldn't look too far into the order of finish.
But Hughes beat several All-Americans (including some teammates, Linda Weigang and Helen Braybrook) in her NCAA cross country debut. She'd be a scorer on almost any team in the country and perhaps will be on this one.
With all of that being said, I think Marissa is spot on in suggesting that the most likely outcome is Hughes finishing in the top-seven once or twice more as we progress through the fall, but not racing for the Grizzlies on the regional or national stage. After all, she came in as more of a middle distance talent.
Garrett: While I fully respect how loaded and talented Adams State's projected lineup is, I find it hard to believe that Katie Hughes wouldn't crack their top-seven and stay there this fall. Admittedly, we only have one small-meet venue to analyze, but Linda Weigang and Helen Braybrook are no-joke names who should not be ignored.
Plus, she's run 4:21 (1500), 9:32 (3k) and 16:32 (5k)! On paper, those kinds of marks could put her in the All-American hunt (which, on a team like Adams State, doesn't always guarantee that she'll make their lineup).
We're also operating under the assumption that all of Adams State's projected top-seven will run this fall and that they will all stay healthy. Sure, we still need to see Hughes validate her recent effort with another strong result, but it's hard to fake fitness and it seems that, by the time the national meet rolls around, she will find herself as a Grizzly lineup contributor.
Right now, her spot in that lineup is anyone's guess. Her ceiling could theoretically be that of their third scorer, but for now, expecting her to be the team's sixth of seventh option seems plenty reasonable.
What’s one impressive individual result that you think may be flying under the radar?
Marissa: Jessica Kampman (who is now Jessica Walczack despite TFRRS suggesting otherwise) -- who was an NAIA All-American at Dordt and now a grad transfer at Azusa Pacific -- just finished 2nd overall at the UCR Cross Country Invitational in a 6k time of 19:56!
We don't usually put too much emphasis on cross country times, but running under 20 minutes at this time of year is insane. Even if you throw away the time, her runner-up placement against D1 talent (behind only Judy Chepkoech of Arizona State) was a statement.
Kampman was impressive at Dordt, but her first race with the Cougars suggests that she has entered a new level of fitness upon moving West.
Gavin: I'm going to cheat and offer two names here because there weren't many, if any, truly landscape-altering D2 results in the opening weeks of the season.
A couple of efforts that stood out to me were Jenna Ramsey-Rutledge (Colorado Mines) and Elliot Dotson (Anderson (SC)), both proven talents to varying extents, exceeding expectations in their race victories.
Both were certainly in the mix to win their respective races and arguably even favored to do so. But the margins by which they did against solid opposition bodes well for their team and individual aspirations.
Ramsey-Rutledge, who has flashed superstar potential but has also been inconsistent at times, won the Roadrunners Invitational by nearly 30 seconds over her teammates and several University of Colorado women. Meanwhile, in his second cross country race since 2022, Dotson took down talented running mate Spain Vaughan and Wingate All-American Scott Nutter by over 30 seconds at the Converse Kick-Off.
Neither result was shocking, but both flew under the radar in relatively low-stakes meets and deserve recognition as they could serve as an early indication that these two talents are on an upward trajectory from already solid starting points.
Garrett: I think we're potentially overlooking the results that we saw at the Roy Griak Invitational, specifically in the "Maroon" race. The Northwest Missouri men were outstanding scoring just 36 points en route to a very comfortable win over a somewhat respectable field.
In that race, the Bearcat duo of Nate Mueller and Drew Atkins finished 3rd and 4th, respectively. However, if you look at the credentials of those two men, seeing them place where they did in that field shouldn't be too surprising.
However, Grant Bradley's individual runner-up result is a massive development for the NW Missouri men. Bradley had a very strong outdoor track campaign, earning 8th place All-American honors in the steeplechase, but earning silver at the Roy Griak Invitational was a huge jump from the prior results that he produced on the grass.
The rise of Bradley as a top cross country talent is potentially huge for a NW Missouri team that may have enough weapons to be a top-10 team this fall. We still want to see how this group will fare against a more competitive field, but this was a much better start to their season than some people may realize.
What’s one bold take / prediction you have as we enter the meat of the season?
Marissa: The women's individual national title is anyone’s game this fall.
Since I have been a part of the Division Two world, first as a competitor and then as a writer for TSR, there has always been a clear favorite (whether it was the Flanagan sisters, Stephanie Cotter or Lindsay Cunningham).
However, this year, there really is no clear-cut national title favorite. Both Anna Fauske and Maggie McCleskey looked incredibly strong as they dominated their respective home meets. Jenna Ramsey-Rutledge looked phenomenal at the Roadrunners Invite, running 20:59. Then there is the new addition of Jessica Kampman and her adjustment to Division Two.
Or you could go with individuals who finished well at last year’s cross country national meet, but have had up-and-down starts to their season, like Sarah Koomson and Khot Juac. The sky's the limit on who can win this national title.
Gavin: Romain Legendre will finish as the national meet runner-up two months from now.
I'm banking on the specificity of this prediction making it feel bold enough.
Legendre is situated at TSR #4 in our preseason individual rankings, and a second D2 national title feels a bit far-fetched even after this D2 5k record-holder won that event at the 2024 outdoor national meet. That's because William Amponsah has yet to lose a collegiate cross country race and just won D2 10k gold and 5k silver behind Legendre on the track.
It took a bit of projection already to include Legendre in our top-five after he faded to 55th place at the 2023 NCAA XC Championships. He may not be the best runner in his own region (that's probably Amponsah) or even his conference (given that Loic Scomparin is returning to Colorado Mines and Matthew Storer to Colorado Christian).
That being said, Legendre has as much raw ability and upside as arguably any man in the country. He's probably not the safest pick to finish as the national runner-up compared to Scomparin, Hamza Chahid and Storer. But when firing on all cylinders, he should be able to beat anyone but Amponsah.
Garrett: Compared to my fellow writers, I'm going to be much more aggressive with prediction. After all, these are supposed to be "bold" predictions, right?
As of right now, I think it's very realistic that U-Mary's Alyssa Becker could win the national title. And until I see more from other top individuals, she's currently my early-season pick to win NCAA gold in November.
We've seen how dangerous Becker can be when she's firing on all cylinders and there's no denying that she has a ton of raw talent. It's one thing to win the "Maroon" race at the Roy Griak Invitational, but to beat someone as insanely accomplished as Kaylee Beyer (who was racing unattached) by 10 seconds is a huge deal.
If we believe that Beyer is still in (or at least near) top form, then Becker's win should theoretically position her to make a run for the individual national title as long as that performance can be replicated in the future.
