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The Group Chat (D2): A Loaded Weekend of Conference Championship Action
- TSR Collaboration
- Oct 25, 2024
- 12 min read
Written by Marissa Kuik, Garrett Zatlin & Gavin Struve
Questions, edits and additional commentary via Gavin Struve & Garrett Zatlin
For Division Two fans who are just as, if not more, interested in regionality and conference dynamics as the national picture, this Saturday will be a sort of cross country Christmas.
We'll see over a dozen D2 conference meets on that day alone in addition to the handful that get underway today. Yesterday, we offered previews and predictions for the RMAC XC Championships. While that's the most loaded D2 conference meet, it's hardly the only one with some stakes.
Below, we rounded up a group chat to discuss a medley of conference competitions that are also taking place on Saturday, several of which appear set up for new team and/or individual champions.
Alaska Fairbanks upset Western Washington by finishing one spot (and 37 points) ahead of the Vikings at the Lewis Crossover. Do you see the Nanooks as the new GNAC women’s team title favorite?
Gavin: The answer to this question likely hinges on how much Western Washington's lead scorers run like low-sticks. Ashley Reeck and Ila Davis entered this season in our top-25 individual rankings and in our "Honorable Mentions" section, respectively, and both fell out altogether after a month of competition.
Each left something to be desired against competitive regular season fields at their WWU Bill Roe Classic home meet and the Lewis Crossover, but they were hardly terrible. Considering that both were top-55 finishers at the 2023 NCAA XC Championships and also qualified for the 2024 NCAA Outdoor Championships in the 3000-meter steeplechase, we wouldn't be shocked if they turned it on for the postseason.
We don't expect Reeck and Davis to match UAF's two dependable stars, Kendall Kramer and Rosie Fordham, but if they stay close to them within the top-10, the strength of their depth should power the Vikings to victory.
The Nanooks also appear to have solid depth, but their backend pieces have a wider range of outcomes seeing as their final three scorers are all underclassmen and two are newcomers.
Given that the composition of this field closely mimics the one WWU beat at the Bill Roe Classic, which was run on the same course that the GNAC XC Championships will be held at (WWU's home course), I'll give the edge to the Vikings.
The fact that this is even a difficult discussion points to how the Nanooks have appeared to improve their roster and chances of qualifying as a team for the 2024 NCAA XC Championships.
Marissa: The strength of Western Washington on the women’s side is their tight scoring spread. The strength of Alaska Fairbanks is their top runners, and that has been the case for a few years now.
This season, Alaska Fairbanks finally has a supportive back-half thanks to some underclassmen helping to close the gap behind their phenomenal top runners. The Nanooks definitely look more dangerous this season, and although they beat Western Washington at the Lewis Crossover, I think the Vikings had a slight "off" day.
At the Bill Roe Classic earlier this season, the Vikings beat Alaska Fairbanks pretty easily because of how close each of their runners finished next to each other near the front of the field. Obviously, if Western Washington has another "off" day, especially from Ashley Reeck and Ila Davis, then the Nanooks can capitalize on it. But I still think Western Washington is a stronger team.
Garrett: Both Gavin and Marissa did a nice job of outlining why I also believe that Western Washington is the team to beat tomorrow. However, I will also say that just because the Vikings are still favored (at least in our eyes) to secure GNAC gold doesn't necessarily mean that they'll be the better team on the national stage.
I think the upfront firepower of Alaska Fairbanks will have a more impactful presence in the Nanooks' season finale. Meanwhile, I think Western Washington's lineup structure is more beneficial for this smaller field where there is less margin for error and less possibility that a top opponent falters against overwhelming competition.
So, yes, I'll still take WWU this weekend, but I don't know if that will continue to be my mentality as the postseason progresses.
Who do you foresee winning the GNAC men’s race: Kevin McDermott of Western Washington or Johan Correa of Central Washington?
Gavin: Last year, Kevin McDermott won the GNAC title over Johan Correa (and Alaska Anchorage-to-Notre Dame transfer Cole Nash) before Correa emerged as (by far) the top GNAC finisher at the cross country national meet.
Nothing that these two men have shown this year indicates that the 2024 GNAC XC Championships will bring a different result. McDermott arguably looks improved from last year, finishing 2nd among collegians at the Bill Roe Classic and 9th overall at the Lewis Crossover.
Meanwhile, Correa has yet to win any of the three smaller meets that he has contested this fall. But the only Division Two individual he's lost to was a teammate by one second. We have reason to believe that wasn't an all-out effort.
For as good as McDermott has been in seemingly every setting except for the national meet throughout his career, Correa has higher upside, as affirmed by top-half All-American honors both on the grass and over 800 meters in 2023-2024. I'll bank on him breaking through for a conference title in his second GNAC XC Championships appearance after McDermott did so in his third showing last fall.
Marissa: I am going to go with Johan Correa on this one, just because he has been slightly more consistent. It is pretty tight between these two men, both of whom have great experience running in and winning championship races.
However, I think Correa has been slightly more consistent, and it helps that he's been pushed by his teammate, Ramon Rodriguez. Don’t be surprised if Rodriguez is up there with McDermott and Correa, but I think Correa will pull it out in the end.
Garrett: I have to disagree with both Gavin and Marissa -- I'm taking Kevin McDermott in this one. The Western Washington veteran is, for the most part, super reliable. He can handle most races incredibly well and I would argue that he's just as good as he's ever been.
The experience of McDermott, who consistently races against high-level competition, gives me a greater sense of certainty about what he can do this weekend. Sure, Correa definitely has the upside and talent to defeat him, but from a reliability standpoint, I'll take McDermott.
The Lee (Tenn.) and Alabama-Huntsville men are both listed in the “Just Missed” section right outside of our top-10 team rankings. Do you envision the Flames winning a third straight Gulf South Conference title? Or Sam Wilhelm leading the Chargers to their first title since 2021?
Gavin: It's tough to measure these teams against each other, despite both racing in a pair of Division One-heavy fields and each being entered in the UAH Chargers XC Invitational. Alas, they didn't contest the same D1-laden fields, and Lee (Tenn.) didn't race their top men at UAH's home meet earlier this month.
That only adds to the intrigue entering this matchup in which the Flames are searching for a three-peat, while the Chargers are trying to surpass their rivals in conference titles won this decade after triumphing in 2020 and 2021.
We have less of a grasp on Lee (Tenn.)'s lineup structure after it was more fluid in their two varsity outings. What we do know is that Luke Gaddis has flashed low-stick potential for the Flames after finishing 13th at the Louisville Classic.
UAH's identity has been constant through three appearances. It's framed around focal star Sam Wilhelm and emerging sophomore Noah George with a noticeable gap behind the second scorer and the fourth scorer.
While UAH has more continuity and a clearer identity, I'm going to default to the unknown upside of the more recent back-to-back conference champs.
Marissa: The biggest difference between Alabama-Huntsville and Lee (Tenn.) is that the Chargers have a great low-stick in Sam Wilhem, whereas the Flames don't really have a true front-runner on their squad.
Both teams have a pretty solid top-five spread, although the Chargers’ fifth runner is a little further back from their top four runners.
Those two differences will determine who wins the conference title. If the Flames can move their pack toward the front and finish ahead of most of the rest of Alabama-Huntsville’s scoring five, then they'll pull off the win once again.
Ultimately, I think that Wilhelm leading the way will be just enough to pull the Chargers ahead of the Flames (and perhaps drag George with him), even though Lee (Tenn.) has a tighter scoring spread.
Garrett: I'm with Marissa on this one. I completely agree that Sam Wilhelm is going to be the difference maker in this race.
Having a low-stick star who can score just one point gives the Alabama-Huntsville men a slightly greater margin for error. Sure, you could argue that Lee (Tenn.) has a strong pack of their own which may actually be slightly better than what the Chargers have. However, I still like Noah George quite a bit for the latter and I don't think UAH's supporting cast is dramatically worse than what the Flames boast.
Remember, Alabama-Huntsville was only 10 points off from a very respectable CSU-Pueblo team at the Chile Pepper XC Festival earlier this year.
Now, that being said, if every single runner in Lee (Tenn.)'s lineup runs up to their full potential, then they could absolutely win this race. In fact, in that kind of scenario, the Flames should win the title.
If Lee (Tenn.) gets the version of Luke Gaddis that they saw at the Louisville XC Classic and are able to pair him with the version of men who we saw at the Southern Showcase, then my pick will swing to the Flames. However, if I'm being forced to choose, I'll take Alabama-Huntsville.
Nebraska-Kearney outclassed several conference opponents at the Missouri Western State Griffon Invite earlier this month. On a scale of 1 to 10, how likely is it that the Lopers prevent the Pittsburg State women from a third-straight MIAA title?
Gavin: The basis for this question centers around the fact that, in winning the Missouri Western State Griffon Invite, one of the teams who Nebraska-Kearney thoroughly defeated was the same Rogers State squad that comfortably won the team title over Pittsburg State at the Southern Stampede two weeks earlier.
It should be noted that several of Pittsburg State's varsity runners (their second through fourth scorers in their last outing) did not race at the Southern Stampede. Pittsburg State also looked impressive in that most recent race, edging out Chico State for the team title at the UAH Chargers XC Invitational.
Even so, the Lopers bear monitoring despite finishing 5th at the 2023 MIAA XC Championships. UNK returns all five scorers from that setting, but has two women (returner Ella Buhlke and freshman Reece Ewoldt) who have stepped up as lead scorers from outside that group.
Headlined by two returners who finished in the top-10 at the 2023 MIAA XC Championships, neither of whom is the Gorillas' lead scorer in 2024, Pittsburg State has a comparable lineup composition, but is the more battle-tested and well-known commodity and rightfully the slight favorite.
If the numbers 1 to 10 correspond with percentages increasing in increments of 10, I'd put the likelihood of UNK winning the MIAA women's team title at a "3" out of 10, or 30%.
Marissa: These two teams have similar lineup constructions, but I think Pittsburg State simply has faster women. Their top-five spread will be ahead of Nebraska-Kearney’s top-five spread. Although it should be fairly close, I think the Gorillas have the upper hand, especially after their impressive performance at the UAH Chargers XC Invitational.
On a scale of 1 to 10, I give the likelihood of the Lopers topping Pittsburg State a "3".
Garrett: It's best not to overcomplicate this question -- I agree, Nebraska-Kearney is good, but Pittsburg State should remain as the somewhat clear favorite. I would give a "3" in this scenario which I suppose corresponds to a 30% chance of winning.
Trying to follow the transitive property of "who has beaten who," so far this season falls apart a bit when you realize that, as Gavin said, the Gorillas didn't field a handful of key women at the Southern Stampede.
Make no mistake, Nebraska-Kearney is a great team and the combination of Ella Buhlke and Reece Ewoldt will make them a difficult out. Their lineup as a whole is also pretty balanced through five runners.
However, Pittsburg State took down a very respectable Chico State team at the UAH Chargers XC Invitational. With a scoring trio of Kate Strader, Marissa Dick and Lorna Rae Pierce looking as good as they recently did, I would be fairly surprised if the Lopers pulled off the upset.
The top four men’s finishers from the 2023 MIAA XC Championships have graduated. Who do you think will win the conference crown this weekend?
Gavin: The 5th-place finisher and top returner from last year's MIAA XC Championships, Pittsburg State's Matthew Oglesby -- a sixth-year senior who we didn't anticipate returning this season -- is a solid answer to this question.
The top-half 2023 All-American looked solid, if not spectacular, in his 2024 debut, placing 6th at the UAH Chargers XC Invitational two weeks ago. His teammates, Dylan Sprecker and Mason Strader, merit a mention as well after each earned All-American status over 1500 meters earlier this year.
However, I'd argue that the MIAA individual champion will come from either Donald Kibet (TSR #24) of Washburn, Grant Bradley (TSR #25) or one of his new NW Missouri State teammates.
Drew Atkins and Nate Mueller are more longstanding lead scorers for the Bearcats, but Bradley has made a seamless transition to a low-stick role after transferring within the conference from Fort Hays State.
Kibet arguably has the most impressive performance of all this fall, placing 6th at the Lewis Crossover, but I'll give the nod to Bradley after he already beat a handful of conference foes on the conference meet course by winning the Missouri Western State Griffon Invite.
Garrett: I do like Grant Bradley quite a bit. And although I'm not quite as high on Matthew Oglesby as a few of our TSR writers, I can also respect the fact that he has enough talent to contend for the win.
But in my opinion, I have seen enough out of Donald Kibet for him to be my pre-race favorite. Placing 6th at the Lewis Crossover is a big deal. That's a tremendous low-stick result which pairs nicely with the plentiful experience that he has gained over the last couple of years.
Plus, his Lewis Crossover performance wasn't the only competitive result that he has produced this season. Remember, Kibet also placed 12th at the Gans Creek Classic (Open section) a few weeks back.
Given that he was a top-30 All-American last fall and may be even better now than he was back then, I'll take the Washburn ace to secure gold.
With Lindsay Cunningham having transferred and Kaylee Beyer graduated, who do you predict will win the NSIC women’s individual title this year?
Gavin: Besides all-time D2 megastar Lindsay Cunningham, current U-Mary senior Alyssa Becker was the only woman to finish in the top-five at the past two NSIC XC Championships. Becker appears to be back in her 2021 All-American form and even looks like an individual national title threat after winning the Roy Griak "Maroon" race, so she's the prohibitive favorite in this field.
That being said, five of the other women who finished 3rd through 9th at the 2023 NSIC XC Championships are back. Sioux Falls senior Khot Juac is the top returner but hasn't been in peak form for much of this fall. She certainly has the talent to turn it around this weekend at the start of the postseason.
Sophia Taarud has the potential to replicate half of her departed Winona State teammates' firepower toward the front of this field, and Augustana (SD) has a contingent of women (Aubrey Surage, Ella Bakken and Ashley Overgaauw) who should litter the top-five or top-10.
Becker is the favorite over the field, but I won't be absolutely shocked if she doesn't win this race.
Marissa: Alyssa Becker should win the NSIC title. She already proved that she could beat some of the top names in the conference just a month ago, including Khot Juac and all of the Augustana (SD) women at the Roy Griak Invitational. Becker has been incredibly consistent throughout this season, finishing toward the top of all the other races that she has competed in, making her a good bet to win this one.
Garrett: This is another answer that we shouldn't overthink. By comparison, Alyssa Becker has simply been better than Khot Juac (and more consistent) so far this season. Not only that, but it's not like this kind of success is unprecedented for Becker -- she proved to be a nationally competitive name when she was just a freshman. Nowadays, she looks as strong as she ever has.
Yes, Juac absolutely has enough raw talent to win this race and defeat Becker. In fact, it actually wouldn't surprise me much if she did just that. Even so, all of the momentum is on Becker's side and for that reason, she gets the nod from me.
What’s one conference question you’re looking forward to having answered this weekend?
Gavin: Another conference meet that I'll be keeping a close eye on is the GLVC XC Championships. While the Lewis men and women should sweep the team titles, I'm intrigued to find out who will win the men's individual title race with Illinois-Springfield stars Cortland Ross and Noah McIntyre now gone.
That seemingly leaves last year's surprise runner-up, Missouri-St. Louis senior Benjamin VandenBrink, to contend with Missouri S&T sophomore Henry Born and Lewis' varsity group.
Most likely to emerge from that cast of Flyers is Evan Horgan. He placed 4th at this meet as a freshman last year, finished 5th at the Lewis Crossover this month, has run 14:00 (5k) and, as of right now, appears to be the only All-American favorite in this conference.
Winning the GLVC crown would only boost Horgan's momentum entering the national meet and perhaps cement him as his team's and conference's focal star.
Marissa: A lot of the individual national title contenders on the women’s side come from the RMAC, including Ava O’Connor, Jenna Ramsey-Rutledge, Leah Taylor and Anna Fauske. While the RMAC XC Championships will not provide the final answer as to who will win the NCAA title, it will be exciting to see who makes the first argument for themself to do so (and likely assume or maintain our TSR #1 position) by winning the conference title.
Garrett: I think we're still learning a lot about West Texas A&M, both the men and the women. And while I don't expect the Lone Star Conference XC Championships to pose any legitimate challenges for the Buffaloes, I do think we'll get greater clarity on the fitness and talent level of a few key names.
One of those key names is Sarah Koomson, someone who entered this season as our TSR #1 runner in Division Two. However, the sophomore simply hasn't looked like herself, recently recording a DNF at the Louisville XC Classic after two not-so-exciting rust-busters.
West Texas A&M can be a scary-good team this fall if Koomson is firing on all cylinders. That, however, is something that we'll need to monitor this weekend.
