Surprise Factor: Evaluating Recent D2 Action

Another week, another batch of results to review! For Division Two, we had a fairly standard crop of performances to analyze, some more surprising than others. So, with that in mind, I thought we would do something a little bit different today.

Below, we highlighted a few key performances from Friday and Saturday and then rated each performance on a scale of one to 10, with one being the least surprising and 10 being the most surprising.

Remember, it's important to keep in mind that just because a certain mark is or isn't surprising doesn't mean that it's not impressive. In this article, almost all of the performances that we mention could be considered as "impressive".

Alright, let's break this all down, shall we?

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Butare Rugenerwa Runs Converted 1:47 For 800 Meters

Surprise Factor: 3

It's admittedly hard to be too shocked by this result. Rugenerwa has established himself as one of the more dominant middle distance runners in D2 and he's not afraid to go out and time-trial fast marks in the middle of the regular season.

The West Texas A&M star already held a 1:48-low personal best coming into this past weekend, so while this is a non-converted PR, it's also not a total shock.

At the same time, we can't always predict a personal best and the fact that he got a conversion into the 1:47 range is admittedly not what I was expecting. Still, Rugenerwa has been running under the 1:50 barrier pretty consistently, so a performance of this magnitude seemed to be within reason.

No, I wasn't expecting Rugenerwa to run quite this fast, but it's still plenty realistic that he did. That's why we gave him a value of three.

Austin Miller Runs 1:49 For 800 Meters

Surprise Factor: 2

To my surprise, Miller had never actually run under the 1:50 barrier with an unconverted mark (or any mark) prior to this weekend. Given how competitive he has been over the last two years, that wasn't something that I had expected to uncover.

However, the fact that Miller has been so competitive for so long makes his recent 1:49 mark less surprising. He's been a fairly consistent talent in the 800 meters and recently finished runner-up in the mile at the NCAA Indoor Championships thanks to some tremendous finishing speed.

I know this is a new PR for Miller and that it's the first that he has run under the 1:50 barrier, but there has been A LOT on his resume to suggest that he was in this kind of shape.

That, of course, doesn't make him any less talented.

Abdelrahim Mahgoub Runs Converted 1:49 For 800 Meters

Surprise Factor: 4

Seeing an altitude converted 1:49 mark for 800 meters next to Mahgoub's name was not something that I expected to see this past weekend. However, the former Northwest Missouri middle distance talent, who now runs for West Texas A&M, did have a handful of promising 800 meter marks on his resume coming into this past weekend.

Mahgoub previously ran 1:50 for 800 meters this past winter and had previously run in the 1:51 and 1:52 range on multiple occasions. On paper, there were plenty of indicators suggesting that Mahgoub had the potential to be nationally competitive this spring.

The West Texas A&M runner took advantage of a fast race which featured star teammate Butare Rugenerwa posting a converted 1:47 mark. This setting was good enough to get Mahgoub his converted 1:49 result.

Was I expecting Mahgoub to run a converted 1:49? No, not quite, but if you had told me that he was going to run an unconverted 1:50, I would have thought that a mark like that was within reason.

Given West Texas A&M's history of middle distance success, Mahgoub's new PR, while relatively faster than past marks, was somewhat expected if you knew what he had already accomplished.

Christian Noble Runs 3:39/1:49 Weekend Double

Surprise Factor: 4

Noble's 1500 meter time is hardly surprising. In fact, this felt like one of the top-three most predictable results of the weekend. However, I will give him some credit, he didn't have a ton of competition for his 1500 meter race and he split 1:53 in the final 800 meters to get his mark.

What really caught my attention, however, was Noble coming back from the next day and running 1:49 for 800 meters to take the win over an established 800 meter All-American in Ben Nagel.

Noble just flexed versatility and range that not even some of the top D1 men could produce. I don't know how many men in the NCAA right now have proven that they can run sub-1:50 and sub-13:30. That's wildly impressive.

I'm not necessarily surprised that Noble ran as fast as he did this weekend, but I am a little surprised by the amount of middle distance speed that he exhibited this past weekend. That's why I gave him a surprise value of four.

Dillon Powell Runs Converted 13:57 For 5000 Meters

Surprise Factor: 1

Honestly, the surprise factor of this performance should probably be higher, mainly because I'm a little surprised that Powell didn't run faster. Even so, this is easily the most predictable result of the weekend and I don't think anyone will argue with me here.

Moving on?

Moving on.

Mason Jones Runs 29:31 For 10,000 Meters

Surprise Factor: 5

The 10,000 meters is an interesting race to gauge. It's a race that isn't available during the indoor track season and it's such a substantial jump up in distance, enough so that the 5k isn't always a great comparison race.

Sure, men race the 10k distance during the cross country season, but a lot can change over four to six months. Plus, the lack of hills and varying terrain on an outdoor track is important to keep in mind.

That's why it's a little challenging for me to properly analyze and gauge Jones' recent 10k effort where he ran a great time of 29:31.

In most years, running 29:31 would capture the attention of D2 distance fans. However, the standard for what is a "good" 10k has now dramatically shifted.

Even so, when looking at Jones' resume, it's fair to say that this might be the best performance of his collegiate career. His 14:19 (5k) from earlier this season was very encouraging and a great step in the right direction, but this 10k result is arguably better.

Jones also had a solid cross country season this past fall, winning the Sunshine State XC Championships and then placing 3rd at the South Regional Championships before recording a DNF at the national meet.

There are a lot of up-and-down results on Jones' resume that make it difficult to truly gauge how surprising this result was. That's why I comfortably put him at a middle ground value of five for my "surprise factor" rating.

Eleonora Curtabbi Runs Converted 2:08 For 800 Meters

Surprise Factor: 8

Say what you will, but this was a stunning performance. It's no secret that Eleonora Curtabbi is a strong nationally competitive talent, specifically in the steeplechase. The West Texas A&M star could end up eventually competing for a national title this spring and frankly, I don't think anyone would be surprised if that was the case.

However, Curtabbi is known as a steeplechaser, but despite having great versatility, the fact that she just ran a nationally competitive 800 meter time of 2:08 (both converted and unconverted) is wildly impressive.

That is next-level speed that even some of the more established half-mile standouts in D2 can't run.

Make no mistake, there were certainly past middle distance results on Curtabbi's resume which suggested that she would be able to run something somewhat quick in the 800 meters.

After all, she ran 2:59 for 1000 meters during the 2020 indoor track season and recently recorded an 800 meter mark of 2:11 back in mid-March.

However, to make a three-second leap into the 2:08 range, despite being a specialist in a longer distance event, is stunning. You just don't see that kind of range and versatility very often.

Curtabbi's past 2:11 mark and proven success as a national-caliber runner is what ultimately stops my "surprise factor" from being at a value like nine or 10. However, a value of eight seems to be appropriate all things considered.

Josii Johnson Runs Converted 2:10 For 800 Meters

Surprise Factor: 2

This Westminster (UT) ace now sits at NCAA #8 in the women's D2 800 meters on the national leaderboard with her altitude converted mark of 2:10. And while some people may not be familiar with Johnson's resume, it's also fair to say that this result shouldn't really be a dramatic surprise.

Johnson ran 2:11 for 800 meters this past winter and had a great indoor track season in 2022. She was the runner-up finisher in this event at the RMAC Indoor Championships and she even qualified for the indoor national meet.

On paper, Johnson had plenty of momentum in her favor.

After running 2:11 on the indoor oval, seeing her run 2:11 at altitude to earn a minor 2:10 conversion seems very reasonable given what she has accomplished in the past month. She seems to hold her own at altitude and her recent 400 meter efforts suggested that she was probably in the best shape of her career.

I admittedly don't have a ton to say for Johnson. Sure, I didn't expect her to run a 0.35 second unconverted personal best at altitude, but she didn't accomplish anything that once seemed unrealistic, or even unlikely.

That, of course, is a very good thing.

After all, what coach doesn't like reliability?

Elysia Burgos Runs 4:26 For 1500 Meters

Surprise Factor: 1

Burgos has been a nationally competitive name, specifically in the mile and 1500 meter distances, for as long as I can remember. The Southwest Baptist star owns a mile PR of 4:47 and ran under 5:00 in the mile three separate times this past winter, eventually qualifying for the indoor national meet.

With a 1500 meter personal best of 4:20, it really should come as no surprise that Burgos ran 4:26 this past weekend. That's a respectable and competitive mark, but it's not all that close to her full potential and frankly, no one should be shocked by her performance.

Not sure I can say more about this result, that's why I give her a surprise factor value of one.

Celine Ritter Runs 16:13 For 5000 Meters

Surprise Factor: 3

Anyone who is even remotely familiar with Celine Ritter will likely agree that seeing her run 16:13 for 5000 meters on an outdoor track is hardly surprising. She's a D2 superstar and has been one of the best distance talents in the NCAA (in her division) over the past few years.

With a personal best of 15:58 and a recent indoor track season where she ran 16:08, seeing Ritter post a time of 16:13 this past weekend was more or less something that we expected.

The only reason why I give my "surprise factor" a value of three for Ritter, instead of a one or a two, is because Ritter wasn't really pushed in this race, at least not based on the results she wasn't.

Not only that, but the conditions were not ideal, so the fact that she ran as well as she did is something that needs to be commended.

For that reason, I gave Ritter's 16:08 a surprise factor value of three.

Madison Brown Runs 16:52 For 5000 Meters

Surprise Factor: 2

I don't have much to say here. Brown already ran 16:39 for 5000 meters this season as the Texas Relays. Seeing her run 13 seconds slower in a decent field in less-than-ideal conditions is hardly surprising.

Brown held her own this past weekend, but with a personal best of 16:21, no one is really stunned by her result. In fact, I would have predicted her to run a little bit faster, so that's why I give her a surprise factor value of two instead of a value of one.

Hannah Thompson Runs 16:54 For 5000 Meters

Surprise Factor: 1

After running a promising 10k time of 34:28 at the Raleigh Relays, it became abundantly clear that Thompson was in (or near) the best shape of her life. The Findlay ace has a 5k PR of 16:32 and has even qualified for the national meet in this event before.

All things considered, no one should be surprised that Thompson posted the time that she did. Sure, it would've been nice to see her run faster, but when you take a look at the results, it didn't seem like anyone was really going to threaten their PRs this past weekend.

Franca Henseleit Runs 16:57 For 5000 Meters

Surprise Factor: ?

Yes, that question mark is international. That's because Heneseleit is a German freshman who has very little background for us to analyze. Originally a triathlete, much like teammate Fatima Alanis, Henseleit only has an outdoor 3k time of 10:14 from March to evaluate.

That time, of course, doesn't seem to be entirely representative of Henseleit's talent. Her recent 16:57 mark for 5000 meters in a respectable field certainly caught our attention, but we have nothing to measure that mark against.

For now, Henseleit is a complete unknown, but we'll likely learn more about her in the coming weeks ahead.

Fatima Alanis Runs 33:52 For 10,000 Meters

Surprise Factor: 4

This is a weird performance to evaluate. At first glance, seeing Alanis run 33:52 for 10,000 meters seems largely unexciting. That is absolutely a mark that she seemed capable of running, especially given how heavily Alanis leans towards the longer distances.

However, when you realize that this mark was a personal best by 18 seconds, her first time ever going under the 34-minute barrier and her second time ever going under the 36-minute barrier, then you begin to realize that maybe this result wasn't a total given.

In other words, I was actually more surprised that her personal best wasn't already this fast (or even faster).

Even so, the level of elite fitness that we saw from Alanis over the last few months shouldn't exactly make this result a total shock. Yes, this is a new, somewhat substantial, personal best for the Queens superstar, but given her recent uptick in talent, one has to think that a 33:52 personal best is on par for her talent.

Bethany Sholl Runs 35:19 For 10,000 Meters

Surprise Factor: 5

One of the more pleasant surprises from this past weekend was seeing Cedarville's Bethany Sholl post a 10k time of 35:19, a mark that would have put her just on the cusp of national qualifying last spring.

Admittedly, I'm not sure what surprise value to give Sholl's performance. She has never run faster than 36:38 in her previous four 10k efforts, so this was a very big personal best. Yet, at the same time, she has also run 4:59 in the mile and 9:55 for the 3k, so there was at least some potential which indicated that Sholl could be a nationally competitive name.

If you look at her resume, Sholl is on a hot streak, earning numerous personal bests in a variety of distances. Those marks very much signaled the idea of a big 10k personal best.

That's why our surprise factor for Sholl sits in the middle of our scoring spectrum with a value of five. Sure, she was certainly due for an improved result, but this was still a fairly big PR that put Sholl in new territory that we weren't expecting her to be in.

Toni Moore Runs 10:35 For the 3000 Meter Steeplechase

Surprise Factor: 1

Not much to say here. Moore is an established steeplechaser who has proven to be a very solid talent in a variety of distance events. Her recent mark of 10:35 may not be a personal best, but it's not far off and it's still a nationally competitive time.

All things considered, I can't say that I'm really surprised at all.