Predictions & Previews: Wisconsin & Pre-Nats

Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
Oct 12, 2017
8 min read

The biggest weekend of regular season NCAA cross country is finally here...

Pre-Nats (entries here)

Key Individuals

Amon Kemboi (Campbell), Lawrence Kipkoech (Campbell), Matthew Maton (Oregon), Peter Seufer (Virginia Tech), Jonah Koech (UTEP), Jonathan Green (Georgetown), Dillon Maggard (Utah State), John Dressel (Colorado), Joe Klecker (Colorado), Sean Tobin (Mississippi), Euan Makepeace (Butler), James Quattlebaum (Clemson), Alex George (Arkansas), Rory Linkletter (BYU), Jack Bruce (Arkansas), Bryan Kamau (Georgia), Azaria Kirwa (Liberty), Zach Long (Tennessee)

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Discussing every individual would be impossible, but what we can say is that there doesn't seem to be an obvious favorite to win it all. Fighting for the top few spots will most likely be Alex George (TSR#4), Rory Linkletter (TSR#16), Dillon Maggard (TSR#8), and Joe Klecker (TSR#15). Obviously, there are plenty of other highly ranked individuals that could play a role like Matthew Maton (TSR#22), John Dressel (TSR#19), Jack Bruce (TSR#14), or Lawrence Kipkoech (TSR#10).

Right now, Linkletter appears to be incredibly fit after defeating Utah State's Dillon Maggard. Luckily, we would see Maggard rebound and take the win at Paul Short. Alex George has not yet tested the fullest extent of his fitness, but his season debut was very impressive. Joe Klecker also had a strong showing at Notre Dame despite settling for 4th behind a very talented Alabama trio. Although that is not a bad start (at all), he will most likely be hungry for more.

The duo from Campbell could mix it up and play a big role at the top of the results. Amon Kemboi (TSR#36) has not given us a reason to doubt him so far this season and has been finishing alongside Lawrence Kipkoech since last winter.

There are plenty of other sleeper picks that could have a huge role in this race. Euan Makepeace (TSR#38) is looking to prove that he is still the real-deal after a sub-par performance at Notre Dame. Sean Tobin (TSR#23) is primed for a breakout performance after having to settle for 3rd at the Cowboy Jamboree. There is also a strong southern contingent that includes James Quattlebaum, Zach Long, Bryan Kamau, and Azaria Kirwa (TSR#47).

Notable Teams

Utah State Aggies, BYU Cougars, Colorado Buffaloes, Mississippi Rebels, Virginia Tech Hokies, UTEP Miners, Arkansas Razorbacks, Georgetown Hoyas, Texas Longhorns, Oregon Ducks, Campbell Camels, Brown Bears, Boston U. Terriers ----------------------------------

I'll admit, the BYU Cougars (TSR#5) have looked awfully good in their first two meets this season. Linkletter is a legitimate ace and his teammates aren't too far behind. However, it will be interesting to see how they handle a larger invite that is much more competitive than what they have faced so far this season.

In terms of firepower, the Arkansas Razorbacks (TSR#4) look like the best team in the field with a killer top two in Alex George and Jack Bruce who are supported by an up-and-coming talent in Cameron Griffith as well as 2016 JUCO transfer Andrew Ronoh. It's difficult to say who will be their final few scorers, but whoever they are, they will determine whether or not Arkansas was running an "A" team at the Paddy Doyle Invite.

The Colorado Buffaloes (TSR#9) didn't have the greatest season debut two weeks ago at Notre Dame, but if Perrin and Dressel can perform at a higher level like we've seen them do before, then this team can definitely fight for the title. Of course, you never know what the plan will be with Coach Wetmore. Are the Buffaloes going to tempo the meet like they did last year or are they going to push the pace in an effort to gain Kolas points?

Virginia Tech (TSR#13), Mississippi (TSR#21), and Oregon (TSR#10) all have excellent depth and respectable low-sticks. They will definitely be competitive at Pre-Nats, but they will need to do more if they want to fight for a team title.

The biggest x-factor in the field has to be the Campbell Camels. They gave Virginia quite a scare at Panorama Farms after placing four individuals in the top 10. If they can find a reliable 5th man, then don't be surprised if the Camels pull off some big upsets...

Final Predictions

Teams

1. BYU Cougars

2. Arkansas Razorbacks

3. Colorado Buffaloes

4. Virginia Tech Hokies

5. Oregon Ducks

6. Mississippi Rebels

7. Campbell Camels

8. Utah State Aggies

9. Georgetown Hoyas

10. Texas Longhorns

11. Brown Bears

Individuals

1. Joe Klecker (Colorado)

2. Rory Linkletter (BYU)

3. Amon Kemboi (Campbell)

4. Alex George (Arkansas)

5. Dillon Maggard (Utah State)

6. Jack Bruce (Arkansas)

7. John Dressel (Colorado)

8. Lawrence Kipkoech (Campbell)

9. Azaria Kirwa (Liberty)

10. Sean Tobin (Ole Miss)

11. Brian Barraza (Houston)

12. Jonathan Green (Georgetown)

13. Euan Makepeace (Butler)

14. James Quattlebaum (Clemson)

15. Clayton Young (BYU)

16. Bryan Kamau (Georgia)

17. Zach Long (Tennessee)

18. Peter Seufer (Virginia Tech)

19. Casey Clinger (BYU)

20. Eduardo Herrera (Colorado)

Wisconsin Invite (entries here)

Key Individuals

Andrew Johnston (Air Force), Jacob Bilvado (Air Force), Yusuke Uchikoshi (Boise State), Miler Haller (Boise State), Jerrell Mock (Colorado State), Aaron Templeton (Furman), Erick Rotich (Eastern Kentucky), Ryan Thomas (Columbia), Jesse Reiser (Illinois), Jonathan Davis (Illinois), Chartt Miller (Iona), Gilbert Kirui (Iona), Ben Flanagan (Michigan), Aaron Baumgarten (Michigan), Connor Mora (Michigan), Clark Ruiz (Michigan State), Alex Palm (New Mexico), Matthew Baxter (NAU), Tyler Day (NAU), Andy Trouard (NAU), Geordie Beamish (NAU), Jeff Thies (Portland), Mike Tate (Southern Utah), Kasey Knevelbaard (Southern Utah), Grant Fisher (Stanford), Thomas Ratcliffe (Stanford), Justyn Knight (Syracuse), Colin Bennie (Syracuse), Philo Germano (Syracuse), Brent Demarest (Virginia), Lachlan Cook (Virginia), Colby Gilbert (Washington), Michael Williams (Washington State), Oliver Hoare (Wisconsin), Thomas Pollard (Iowa State), Festus Lagat (Iowa State), Robert Brandt (UCLA), Garrett Reynolds (UCLA), Morgan McDonald (Wisconsin) (?)

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Admittedly, I don't think I could properly emphasize just how good this field is. Then again, that always seems to be the case with the Wisconsin Invite.

When we look at the top entries, it seems pretty clear that two names stand out: Justyn Knight (TSR#1) and Grant Fisher (TSR#2). Some would say that it's a toss up, but based on experience, Knight certainly has an edge. Of course, if the race comes down to a kick, the only person whi could cover a move from Knight would be Grant Fisher (which is evident by NCAA's this spring).

Although those top two are the favorites, guys Jerrell Mock (TSR#6) and the NAU duo of Matthew Baxter (TSR#5) and Tyler Day (TSR#9) could also mix it up with the top pack. After absolutely dominant season debuts, these guys have shown that they can at least give Knight and Fisher some trouble this weekend. If Knight or Fisher don't finish in the top two, it will most likely be because of these three individuals.

Outside of the top five, others like Yusuke Uchikoshi (TSR#17), Colin Bennie (TSR#7), the Southern Utah duo of Mike Tate (TSR#29) and Kasey Knevelbaard (TSR#30), or even Stanford's Thomas Ratcliffe. Uchikoshi and the Southern Utah boys have proven that they are the real deal in their first few meets this season while Bennie and Ratcliffe have not had their fitness truly tested yet. This will be an important meet for Ratcliffe who is looking to show that he can be another key ace on a team that lost Sean McGorty to graduation.

Potential sleeper picks I'm watching out for include the Michigan trio, UCLA's Robert Brandt (TSR#34) and Garrett Reynolds (TSR#45), Jonathan Davis (Illinois), Oliver Hoare (Wisconsin), and Air Force low-stick Andrew Johnston (TSR#50). Racing on his home course will give Hoare an advantage against the rest of his competition while improved racing tactics from Roy Griak could lead to an impressive finish from Robert Brandt.

Also, is Morgan McDonald (TSR#3) redshirting or not? We'll find out the answer to that this weekend, but if he does race, then he'll be fighting for the win.

Notable Teams

Air Force Falcons, Boise State Broncos, Colorado State Rams, Furman Paladins, Eastern Kentucky Colonels, Columbia Lions, Illinois Fighting Illini', Iona Gaels, Iowa State Cyclones, Michigan Wolverines, Michigan State Spartans, Northern Arizona Lumberjacks, Portland Pilots, Southern Utah Thunderbirds, Stanford Cardinal, Syracuse Orangemen, Tulsa Hurricanes, Virginia Cavaliers, Washington State Spartans, Wisconsin Badgers, UCLA Bruins

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If we're being honest, Northern Arizona (TSR#1) looks like the heavy favorite this weekend. After an incredible performance at Louisville, where they took the top four spots, the target on their back has only grown larger. One of the teams looking to pull off the upset at Wisconsin is the Syracuse Orangemen (TSR#2). They have an accomplished top three and a solid supporting cast through seven men, but can they stay with an NAU squad that put four guys ahead of Boise State star Yusuke Uchikoshi?

While many people are looking at the match-up between NAU and Syracuse, I'll be more interested in seeing how the men from Southern Utah (TSR#8) handle the big stage. After a shocking upset over Colorado at Notre Dame, many of us are rethinking where the Thunderbirds could stand relative to the rest of the NCAA. If SUU can keep their pack together like they did two weeks ago, then Syracuse may not be able to guarantee the second spot overall.

The Stanford Cardinal (TSR#4) is an interesting team mainly because there are so many unknowns surrounding this program. How will the team make up for the loss of Sean McGorty and Garrett Sweatt? Which Sam Wharton and Jack Keelan will we see? Is Thomas Ratcliffe legit? The upside of this team could put them at 2nd overall, but if things don't go right, then they could potentially fall out of the top 10...

At the Greater Louisville Classic, the Furman Paladins (TSR#6) showed that they had the potential to be a podium team with their trademark pack-running led by low-stick Aaron Templeton. If they can replicate what they did two weeks ago, they'll be in the top five this weekend. However, if they want to improve on that spot, they'll need to have someone else join Templeton at the top of the results.

Here are some questions we have regarding the other teams in the field...

Colorado State (TSR#12): Who can complement Jerrell Mock at the top of the results?

Iowa State (TSR#15): What does this roster actually have? Did Andrew Jordan and Thomas Pollard make a jump in fitness? Is Festus Lagat legit?

Iona (TSR#7) / Michigan (TSR#20): Can they all run well on the same day?

Boise State (TSR#14) / UCLA (TSR#18) / Air Force (TSR#19) / Illinois (TSR#22) / Virginia (TSR#11) / Michigan State (TSR#17): Solid group up front, but can their final two scorers cut down the gap between their top three?

Eastern Kentucky (TSR#24): Solid top five, but can they keep that group together at a larger invite? If so, then this team is dangerous...

Portland: This squad lost a lot of pieces, but can their history of success keep them competitive?

Pre-Nats (entries here)

Key Individuals

Notable Teams

Final Predictions

Teams

1. BYU Cougars

2. Arkansas Razorbacks

3. Colorado Buffaloes

4. Virginia Tech Hokies

5. Oregon Ducks

6. Mississippi Rebels

7. Campbell Camels

8. Utah State Aggies

9. Georgetown Hoyas

10. Texas Longhorns

11. Brown Bears

Individuals

1. Joe Klecker (Colorado)

2. Rory Linkletter (BYU)

3. Amon Kemboi (Campbell)

4. Alex George (Arkansas)

5. Dillon Maggard (Utah State)

6. Jack Bruce (Arkansas)

7. John Dressel (Colorado)

8. Lawrence Kipkoech (Campbell)

9. Azaria Kirwa (Liberty)

10. Sean Tobin (Ole Miss)

11. Brian Barraza (Houston)

12. Jonathan Green (Georgetown)

13. Euan Makepeace (Butler)

14. James Quattlebaum (Clemson)

15. Clayton Young (BYU)

16. Bryan Kamau (Georgia)

17. Zach Long (Tennessee)

18. Peter Seufer (Virginia Tech)

19. Casey Clinger (BYU)

20. Eduardo Herrera (Colorado)

Wisconsin Invite (entries here)

Key Individuals

Notable Teams

Final Predictions

Teams

1. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks

2. Southern Utah Thunderbirds

3. Syracuse Orangemen

4. Stanford Cardinal

5. Furman Paladins

6. Colorado State Rams

7. Iowa State Cyclones

8. Iona Gaels

9. Boise State Bruins

10. UCLA Bruins

11. Air Force Falcons

12. Illinois Fighting Illini'

13. Virginia Cavaliers

14. Michigan Wolverines

15. Eastern Kentucky Colonels

16. Michigan State Spartans

17. Portland Pilots

Individuals

1. Justyn Knight (Syracuse)

2. Grant Fisher (Stanford)

3. Matthew Baxter (NAU)

4. Jerrell Mock (Colorado State)

5. Tyler Day (NAU)

6. Yusuke Uchikoshi (Boise State)

7. Thomas Ratcliffe (Stanford)

8. Mike Tate (Southern Utah)

9. Kasey Knevelbaard (Southern Utah)

10. Geordie Beamish (NAU)

11. Gilbert Kirui (Iona)

12. Andy Trouard (NAU)

13. Colin Bennie (Syracuse)

14. Robert Brandt (UCLA)

15. Oliver Hoare (Wisconsin)

16. Jonathan Davis (Illinois)

17. Aaron Baumgarten (Michigan)

18. Festus Lagat (Iowa State)

19. Garrett Reynolds (UCLA)

20. Andrew Johnston (Air Force)