Predictions & Previews: D2 Nationals (Part Two)

By: John Cusick

5000

We’ve come to the 5000 meters portion of this article and it might be safe to say that it’s a race for 2nd place.

Sydney Gidabuday tops the list with his 13:29.31 from Bryan Clay. The next closest athlete is James Ngandu of Tiffin. He has a time of 13:47.92 which was run at the Mt. Sac Relays. These two have had epic battles before, specifically this past indoor season. At indoor Nationals, Sydney ran down Ngandu in the 5000 and simply pulled away from him in the 3000.

Although, depending on how the race pans out, we could have more contenders than just these two.

3rd on the list is Gidabuday’s teammate in George Kelly. Kelly has run 13:52.03 this season and was a part of the Penn Relays 4xMile team that didn’t compete in their conference meet. Kelly has moved up in distance since pursuing the mile during the indoor season. Despite finishing 3rd in the mile at indoor nationals, Kelly opted for the 5000 this spring after setting his new PR.

Rounding out the top five are two athletes from Grand Valley State in Zach Panning and Enael Woldemichael. We’ve talked about Panning before and his newly minted 13:52.66 PR has shown us that his training has progressed since winter track. I expect him to be near the front and at least challenge for the win. His teammate Woldemichael is just a freshman, but was 3rd in his first Nationals appearance earlier this year. His 13:54.16 is the 5th fastest time on the list and he’s already proven that he can race on the biggest stage. We should expect the same this time around.

Derrick Williams (CSU-Pueblo), Adam Craig (Mount Olive), Kyle Medina (Chico State), Josh Hoskinson (Colorado Mines), and Connor Fisher (Chico State) round out the top ten on this list.

Williams (13:55.57) and Medina (14:01.66) are doubling back from the 3000m steeplechase, as is Gatian Airiau, and their strength from that alone should help them stay competitive in the championship race.

Adam Craig is the last athlete under the 14:00 minute mark. Craig returns to the outdoor championships for the 2nd time in his career and is coming off a 6th place performance at 3000 meters during the indoor season. With three new PRs during this spring season (800, 1500, 5000) it looks like Craig is peaking at the right time. I imagine that he will look to continue his success on the biggest stage.

Josh Hoskinson was once a miler, but has moved up in distance this season. So far, it's been a great move. After running the fastest time in the nation earlier in the year, he has fallen to 9th on the list. Meanwhile, Connor Fisher is back after a forgettable performance at last year’s championships.

Names to watch outside of the ones mentioned above include Bastian Grau (Southern Indiana), Wuoi Mach (Grand Valley State), and Nehemia Too (Harding). Grau is a former champion in the mile and has run 13:57 before. Mach has been to six National Championships and is well versed in everything from 1500 to the 5000. Too was the 3rd place finisher at the indoor meet behind Gidabuday and Ribich in the 3000 meters. He has proven that he can be a contender on the national stage.

Final Predictions:

1. Sydney Gidabuday (Adams State), 14:11.32

2. Kyle Medina (Chico State), 14:13.42

3. James Ngandu (Tiffin), 14:14.21

4. Adam Craig (Mount Olive), 14:15.19

5. Enael Woldemichael (Grand Valley State), 14:17.89

6. Derrick Williams (CSU-Pueblo), 14:19.32

7. Connor Fisher (Chico State), 14:20.10

8. Nehemia Too (Harding), 14:20.23

I think Gidabuday is in a league of his own right now. I know he hasn’t raced since Penn Relays and has moved down in discipline, but he’s a bad man when it comes to championship racing. Medina will give a hard charge along with Ngandu, but they’ll run out of real estate before they can catch Gidabuday.

10,000

The last race to preview for this weekend will be the 10,000 meters. A lot of headlines that are in the 5000 will be duplicated in this race.

James Ngandu of Tiffin leads the nation with his 28:45.96 that he ran at the Raleigh Relays in late March. Ngandu’s time is the only one that is underneath the 29:00 barrier and after winning the national title in cross country, it’s presumed that Ngandu is the favorite here.

Sydney Gidabuday is 2nd with a time of 29:02.96. He ran his time at the Stanford Invitational the same night that Ngandu ran his time. Karim Achengli of NW Missouri and Zach Panning of Grand Valley State rounds out the athletes underneath the 29:30 mark. Achengli will be participating in his first National Championship while Panning will look to add another All-American mark to his resume.

Andrew Curry (Dallis Baptist), Lucio Ramirez (Adams State), Ahmed Jama (Western State), Nathanael Williams (Colorado Mines), Jacob Klemz (Washburn) and Chris May (Grand Valley State) round out the top ten. They are all beneath the 29:45 mark.

Ramirez has only competed at the indoor meet once where he finished 11th in the 5000 meters. Williams is attending his 6th championship and looking to claim his first All-American award on the track side of things.

Chris May isn’t a stranger to national meets as this will be his 4th time competing on the biggest stage. May finished 5th at last year’s national meet in this event and he’s my dark horse coming into this race. May has plenty of experience and if the front plays out the right way, he may be able to snag a victory away from the two favorites.

Curry, Jama, and Klemz are making their first appearances at a national meet and will look to mix things up depending on how the race in front of them pans out. They’ll more than likely have shots at taking All-American honors.

Other names to note are Adam Craig of Mount Olive and Ricardo Ocampo of Colorado Mines.

Final Predictions:

1. Sydney Gidabuday (Adams State), 29:34.54

2. Chris May (Grand Valley State), 29:37.43

3. James Ngandu (Tiffin), 29:38.32

4. Zach Panning (Grand Valley State), 29:40.78

5. Ahmed Jama (Western State), 29:43.89

6. Adam Craig (Mount Olive), 29:45.67

7. Ricardo Ocampo (Colorado Mines), 29:47.65

8. Lucio Ramirez (Adams State), 29:50.98

I think Gidabuday is too much when is fully healthy. He clearly wasn’t that during cross country, but I believe he’s back and has the strength to ride out whichever game plan Ngandu decides to throw at him. I see this race coming down to the wire with May passing Ngandu in the final 100 meters to steal silver.