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PREDICTIONS: Graduate Classic (Women's 800m), Nittany Lion (Men's 800m & 1k), Commodore (Women's Mile & 3k), Quaker (Men's 1k), Corky (Women's Mile), Colorado (Mile), Hawkeye (Men's Mile)
Updated: Jan 18, 2025
Welcome back, friends!
We have finally made it to the first major weekend of racing following the winter break. This Friday and Saturday, we will see a large handful of meets kick-off all across the country. And while the most impactful races are still to come, the performances that we'll see over the next days should still be plenty entertaining.
Admittedly, not all meets this weekend are as top-heavy or as deep as what we will see at the University of Washington. We also didn't offer any predictions for races that are taking place today (Friday, January 17th). Even so, there were a number of fairly competitive fields that I thought deserved some attention.
Instead of doing predictions for one meet, I opted to give predictions for a variety of different venues across the country -- but only for a few select races. You can click the meet names below to find the entries.
Let's dive into our picks, shall we?
NOTE: Predictions are only for attached collegians listed in the entries. TSR is aware that an athlete could/will scratch out of certain events to pursue a more manageable weekend of racing. Even so, The Stride Report will offer predictions for each event as if every athlete in the distance fields will be completely fresh.
*An asterisk denotes that a collegian is also entered in another individual event.
Women's 800 Meters
Regina Mpigachai (Northern Colorado) - 2:06
Berlyn Schutz (Nebraska)* - 2:06
Zoie Dundon (Minnesota)* - 2:07
Isabelle Schmitz (Minnesota)* - 2:08
Landen LeBlond (Oregon)* - 2:10
ANALYSIS: There are about three different women who could win this race, and they are unsurprisingly the top-three women in our predictions. Regina Mpigachai is undoubtedly the most complete and well-rounded distance runner in this field. On paper, she is likely the favorite. However, Berlyn Schutz has made sneaky-good improvements with each passing season and is becoming more and more of a middle distance threat. Don't be surprised if she takes the win.
Women's Mile
Megan Marvin (Furman)* - 4:37
Julia Rosenberg (Vanderbilt) - 4:39
Blezzin Kimutai (Tulane)* - 4:40
Sophie Baumann (Ole Miss) - 4:41
Ellie Wolski (Vanderbilt) - 4:44
ANALYSIS: It seems fair to say that Megan Marvin is the best pure miler of this entire group. Not only are her personal bests of 2:04 (800), 4:13 (1500) and 4:37 (mile) better than everyone else in this field, but she's also the most experienced. Julia Rosneberg deserves some respect and should keep things competitive with Marvin. Even so, it feels like the Furman veteran is the somewhat clear favorite going into Saturday.
Women's 3000 Meters
Blezzin Kimutai (Tulane)* - 9:08
Colbi Borland (Lipscomb) - 9:16
Carly Wilkes (Furman) - 9:20
Mackenzie Barnett (Lipscomb) - 9:22
Brooke Garter (Belmont) - 9:26
ANALYSIS: This is a much better field than some people may realize. Kimutai and Barnett both cracked the top-80 at the cross country national meet, Borland has run 15:44 for 5000 meters and Wilkes was a consistent name in our top-50 individual cross country rankings this past fall. Although, admittedly, none of these women have been exceptional below the 5k racing distance. For that reason, we're giving the winning nod to a high-upside talent like Blezzin Kimutai.
Men's 800 Meters
Olivier Desmeules (Penn State) - 1:47
Darius Smallwood (Penn State) - 1:48
Antonio Abrego (Penn State) - 1:49
Matthew Griffin (Georgetown) - 1:51
Daniel McCarthy (Georgetown) - 1:52
ANALYSIS: In theory, the Penn State men should be able to dictate this race. They somewhat clearly have the best athletes in this field and Olivier Desmeules is one of more underrated half-milers in the NCAA. That said, it's hard to see this race being fast enough for anyone to run faster than 1:47 (800).
Men’s 1000 Meters
Tinoda Matsatsa (Georgetown) - 2:18
Gabriele Angiono (Georgetown) - 2:19
Abel Teffra (Georgetown) - 2:19
Luke Seymour (Penn State) - 2:20
Theo Woods (Georgetown) - 2:22
ANALYSIS: Based on the men who are entered in this race, it feels like Georgetown is setting up Tinoda Matsatsa for another record-breaking 1000-meter performance. Almost all of the Hoya's best middle distance talents are in this field and they proved last winter at Virginia Tech that they can run together incredibly well. Expect this race to be extremely fast with Matsatsa being ultra aggressive.
Men's 1000 Meters
Dan Watcke (Villanova) - 2:19
Edwin Klanke (Penn) - 2:21
Declan McDonnell (Monmouth) - 2:21
Ian Moore (Monmouth) - 2:22
Kyle Miller (Penn) - 2:24
ANALYSIS: The Adidas-sponsored trio of Josh, Jaxson and Jonah Hoey are all entered in this field. That's why we are expecting the final results of this 1000-meter race to be a bit faster than some may expect. Dan Watcke is the best pure middle distance runner in this field and he found great success with the Villanova men last year. He could be due for a monster performance. Behind him, Edwin Klanke is on a high after running a 3:59 (mile) PR while Declan McDonnell could be due for a fairly quick time as well.
Sure, this field isn't as stacked (collegiately) as a few other 1k races that we'll see this weekend. Even so, the Hoey brothers will almost certainly keep things honest.
*Below times are unconverted marks
Women's Mile
Judy Chepkoech (Arizona State) - 4:40
Debora Cherono (Texas A&M) - 4:43
Evaline Chepkoech (Arizona State) - 4:44
Tabitha Ngao (TCU)* - 4:48
Laina Friedmann (Arizona) - 4:52
ANALYSIS: More than anything else, this race is a test to see how effective a handful of international names can/will be on the indoor oval. Judy Chepkoech is the clear favorite given her tremendous success on the grass as well as her 2:03 (800) PR. However, we don't have a good understanding of what she can do on the track at this distance. Debora Cherono, meanwhile, has run 4:17 for 1500 meters, meaning that she is the most proven miler in this field.
When you tack on Evaline Chepkoech, a 2:04 half-miler, you get a race that has the potential to be fairly quick. And yet, given their inexperience on the indoor oval and the mile being their secondary event, these women may not be as aggressive on Saturday as we are hoping to see.
*Below times are unconverted marks, any athletes listed as "RS/Una" on TFRRS are not considered for these predictions.
Men's Mile
Isaiah Givens (Colorado) - 4:00
Loic Scomparin (Colorado Mines) - 4:02
Reece Sharman-Newell (CSU-Pueblo) - 4:03
ANALYSIS: The fastest mile time ever run on Colorado soil is 4:00.08 which was set by Adidas pro, Sam Parsons, back in 2023. And in an era where collegians are getting faster and faster, that kind of mark doesn't feel totally out of reach for someone like Isaiah Givens. Although, admittedly, it will likely be an unattached athlete or a pro athlete (such as Parsons) who walks away with the win.
Women's Mile
Jessie Secor (Colorado) - 4:41
Helen Braybrook (CSU-Pueblo) - 4:45
Anna Fauske (UC-Colorado Springs) - 4:51
ANALYSIS: The women's Colorado soil mile record of 4:33.29 was set by Emma Coburn last weekend. Nike pro Bailey Hertenstein may have an outside shot at that mark, but the collegians in this field aren't nearly to that level (yet). Even so, altitude conversions could give someone like Jessie Secor a sub-4:35 clocking when all is said and done.
Men's Mile
Logan Measner (Wisconsin)* - 4:02
Andrew Casey (Wisconsin)* - 4:03
Mohamed Dahmouch (Iowa Central CC)* - 4:04
James Lawrence (Loyola (IL)) - 4:07
Chase Knoche (Northern Iowa)* - 4:08
ANALYSIS: This race isn't necessarily stacked with star names, but it could yield a few sneaky-good results. Logan Measner is coming down in distance while Andrew Casey is moving up. And given their PRs in other events, it's not unrealistic for them to chase a sub-4:00 mile time. No, I don't think they'll go under that barrier, but they'll have a distant shot of doing so.
