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PREDICTIONS: 2025 Eastern Indoors (KY)
Written by Joiner Evans & Donny Speas
Edits & additional commentary via Garrett Zatlin
If there's one thing that the city of Louisville is good at, it's putting on quality track and cross country meets.
The most competitive meet hosted by the city is arguably Eastern Indoors which draws top high school competition from across the Midwest and Southeast regions to the Norton Center's blazing fast 200-meter banked track.
This year's meet is highlighted by star-studded fields in both the boy's and girl's mile, both of which feature All-Americans and athletes featured in our TSR's Top-50 Recruit Rankings.
So without further ado, read on to see who we have picked to come out on top this weekend!
Girl's 800 Meters
1. Addison Moore (Woodford County) - 2:12
2. Olivia Holbrook (Campbell County) - 2:13
3. Carolina Areheart (Webb School of Knoxville) - 2:13
4. Mabel George (Assumption) - 2:15
5. Aaliyah Rogers (Ladue Horton Watkins) - 2:16
Analysis: To be completely honest, this race could go any way. The top-nine entries have all run under 2:15 (800) and have the consistency to back it up. However, three athletes stand out for me.
Olivia Holbrook comes into the race with the fastest 800-meter personal best in a 2:10. While Holbrooks has only run a 2:20 this winter, she did set an impressive 4:56 indoor mile personal best and has shown consistent improvement year over year.
Now, you may be asking, "If Holbrook is so good, then why did you pick her to finish runner-up?" That is because Woodford County junior Addison Moore has run 2:14 this season, showcasing her speed in the early stages of the year. With an 800-meter personal best of 2:11, Moore isn’t far off that of Holbrook. In addition to her proven upside, she boasts an impressive 10:28 (3200) personal best from this earlier this season.
Let's get into the third standout in this field. A junior from the Webb School of Knoxville, Carolina Areheart has also run a 2:11 over the half-mile distance. But more importantly, her incredible raw talent can be seen in her 4:48 (mile) PR and a 10:18 (two-mile) personal best. A remarkably diverse runner, Areheart has been in fine form throughout her junior year, qualifying for both Nike Cross Nationals and the Foot Locker XC National Championships.
To say that there are three focal standouts in this field by no means diminishes the quality of the other girls in this race as a whole. Mabel George might only be seeded ninth, but she has already run 2:16 (800) this winter, only two seconds off of her personal best. Lastly, Aaliyah Rogers brings another 2:11 (800) mark to the table, along with a 57-second 400-meter personal best.
Boy's 800 Meters
1. Jackson Wyatt (Eastside) - 1:53
2. Ryder Ortner (Irish Track Club) - 1:54
3. Aiden Haack (Rudderville Running) - 1:54 4. Spencer Alf (McFarland) - 1:54
5. Will Larrison (Waldron) - 1:56
Analysis: Jackson Wyatt has the fastest 800-meter personal best and probably has the best overall resume (highlighted by a state title in this event last spring). However, the University of Kentucky commit is far from the only athlete capable of winning on Saturday afternoon.
One other candidate for the win is Ryder Ortner. The Nashville resident has run solid times of 51 (400) and 1:57 (800) this season. And with a 1:52 personal best from last summer, it would be foolish to count him out.
Finally, we get to the McFarland (no, not that McFarland) senior, Spencer Alf. The high school veteran is undefeated over the 800-meter distance this winter, most notably taking down a very solid field at the Texas A&M High School Indoor Championships back in January.
Sure, Alf doesn't quite have the personal bests of some of the other athletes in this field. Even so, he is certainly capable of pulling off an upset if certain parts of this race break in his favor.
Girl's Mile
1. Abby Faith Cheeseman (Webb School of Bell Buckle) - 4:46
2. Carolina Areheart (Webb School of Knoxville) - 4:49
3. Addison Moore (Woodford County) - 4:51
4. Jazzlyn Garmer (Webb School of Knoxville) - 4:53
5. Olivia Holbrook (Campbell County) - 4:54
Analysis: As mentioned above, I had a very challenging time predicting the girl's 800-meter race. However, I was not at all ready for the girl's mile...
To start it off, Abby Faith Cheeseman is truly a jack of all trades. With personal bests of 2:17 (800), 4:42 (1600) and 10:02 (two-mile), Cheeseman is a national-caliber contender across most events. During just this season alone, she has run a 10:19 for two miles and has consistently been a standout performer throughout her high school career.
On paper, she is the fairly clear favorite. Based on just raw talent alone, Cheeseman should be able to secure gold this weekend.
Both Carolina Areheart and Addison Moore boast all-around resumes and will also look to take the win this coming weekend. On the other hand, Olivia Holbrook appears to be more of a middle distance talent given her impressive 2:10 (800) personal best. That said, she has produced a solid time of 10:48 for 3200 meters.
But for the sake of repeating myself, I’m going to move onto the other top-notch entries in this field.
Jazzlyn Garmer, a teammate of Areheart, has already put together an impressive indoor track campaign as she comes off of an excellent 10:25 (two-mile) performance. Not only that, but she owns times of 2:17 for 800 meters and 4:54 in the mile! A solid performer on the grass as well, Garmer's resume suggests that she has the aerobic strength to hang near the top of the field if the pace is aggressive early-on.
With all of that being said, those five girls are certainly not the only contenders going into this race.
For me, there are two dark horses ready to get into the conversation. While Leah Penick is only seeded at 10th, she owns an impressive 10:31 (3200) personal best, showcasing her superior endurance. Like Garmer, that could prove lethal if this race starts guns-blazing.
Lastly, I don’t think you can count out Calysta Garmer. She had a breakout cross country season, winning the Tennessee XC State Championships over the aforementioned Areheart and Jazzlyn Garmer.
Boy's Mile
1. Zachary Youngblood (Chattanooga Christian) - 4:07
2. Roman Sierpina (Louisville Collegiate) - 4:09
3. Jackson Wyatt (Eastside) - 4:11
4. Riku Sugie (Thomas Nelson) - 4:13
5. Jackson Miller (St. Louis University) - 4:14
Analysis: This looks like it's going to be a really, really good race!
This field is highlighted by our TSR #47 recruit, Zachary Youngblood. The Furman commit holds a mile personal best of 4:08 and has already shaken off the rust with a couple of low-key indoor track races this winter.
Youngblood is my pick for the win, but he's far from guaranteed the victory.
Also featured in our TSR Top-50 Recruit Rankings is Notre Dame commit, Riku Sugie. The only reason why this Kentucky native isn't predicted to win is that he didn't quite have the cross country season that we thought he would. That's why I'm still a little hesitant to pick him to win.
However, to Sugie's credit, he looked very solid when he cruised to a victory in his season opener two weeks ago.
Even so, I don't think that Sugie is the biggest threat to Youngblood on Saturday. Instead, that honor goes to Kentucky native, Roman Sierpina. The Boston College commit posted a very impressive 4:13 mile mark on this very same Norton Center track two weeks ago. And in my opinion, he's one of the most underrated athletes anywhere in the nation.
Also, make sure to make a note of the name Jackson Miller. The St. Louis University sophomore is obviously a bit young and it would certainly surprise me if he pulled off the win. That said, he has already run impressive times of 4:12 (mile) and 1:55 (800) as an underclassman and could very well turn into a national title contender before his high school career is said and done.
Girl's Two-Mile
1. Efa Paschka (Mason) - 10:39
2. Baili Hoten (Thomas Nelson) - 10:40
3. Molly Farrell (Marshall) - 10:41
4. Lauren Banovac (Brentwood) - 10:43
5. Natalie Fouts (Dub. Jerome) - 10:46
Analysis: As you can see, we’ve got some stellar distance talents in this field who will all be looking to break that 10:40 barrier this weekend. The top-four entrants have all run in the 10:40s for two miles before, with many more knocking on that door.
To start off, Efa Paschka looks to be the favorite given her personal bests of 2:14 for 800 meters, 4:56 in the mile and 10:36 for 3200 meters. However, Paschka’s 3200-meter personal best comes from the 2023 indoor track season, so it will be interesting to see what kind of form she is in this coming weekend.
While Baili Hoten might not be of the same caliber as Paschka, she started her indoor track season off strong with a new 10:41 (two-mile) personal best. Hoten will be keen to continue her momentum into this next race, so be sure to watch out for the long-distance ace.
Seeded first in the race, Molly Farrell owns a 3200-meter time of 10:34, along with a solid 4:57 mile personal best. She has only run 5:19 in the mile this winter, but her impressive endurance makes it challenging to leave her out of these predictions.
With a 10:46 PR in this event, Lauren Banovac has the ability to take top honors this coming weekend. Seeded fourth coming into this weekend, the Brentwood standout has already shown her fitness early in the season. Running a 5:01 mile personal best, Banovac has proven to already be in top form and may have the momentum to capitalize of her any newfound fitness.
Let's switch our focus to Natalie Fouts. While she is only seeded seventh with a 10:56 (two-mile) personal best, that performance came from this current indoor track season. She may be tapping into upside which could make her plenty dangerous this weekend.
Boy's Two-Mile
1. Lincoln Herald (Grant County) - 9:02
2. Xavier Richardson (Lafayette) - 9:04
3. Kasem Kaheal (Centerville) - 9:05
4. Jackson Nolan (Evansville F.J. Reitz HS) - 9:08
5. Gabriel McLain (Benton) - 9:10
Analysis: Luckily for us, we got to see the top-two seeds in this meet face-off against one another in a 3200-meter race back in November! In that race, we saw Lincoln Herald defeat Xavier Richardson by three seconds. So naturally, I decided to put Herald at the top spot in our predictions.
However, it would be foolish to count out Richardson. He did, after all, put together a pretty impressive 4:16 (mile) and 2:00 (800) double at the Louisville Indoor Games a couple of weeks ago. He definitely has the chops to sneak out a win on Saturday.
Speaking of recent indoor track performances, one other athlete who comes into this meet with a solid result under his belt is Gabriel McLain. The Gonzaga commit ran a 4:20 mile at the CYUP Misfits Invite back in January. McLain holds a personal best of 9:09 for 3200 meters and boasts plenty of potential to surprise some people on Saturday afternoon.
Girl's 4x800-Meter Relay
1. Mason Comets (OH) - 9:23
2. Assumption Rockets (KY) - 9:25
3. Lexington Catholic Knights (KY) - 9:25
4. North Oldham Colonels (KY) - 9:30
5. Notre Dame Academy Pandas (KY) - 9:32
Analysis: The teams who are entered in this relay field are set to come with some stacked lineups. Mason, Assumption and Lexington Catholic have all come into this weekend with a 2:14 (800) leg via Efa Paschka, Abigail Turner and Mabel George, respectively.
To add to the excitement, the top-three teams in our predictions are pretty close in terms of their personal bests!
Assumption appears to be a more balanced team with Leah Penick (2:18), Lilian Broniak (2:23), Brooke Greenwell (2:25) and Mabel George (2:14). However, Mason has some star power with Abigail Turner (2:14) and Caroline Beiting (2:18). The question is, can Turner and Beiting make up enough time over the top-seeded team that is Mason?
As for North Oldham, I think they could be a real underdog in this race. With all four legs of their relay residing in the 2:20s (800) range, their balanced lineup could put themselves in a good position to take top honors. Similarly, Notre Dame Academy has four girls who has run in the 2:20s range for 800 meters.
Boy's 4x800-Meter Relay
1. Mason Comets (OH) - 7:59
2. Oldham County Colonels (KY) - 8:06
3. Trinity Shamrocks (KY) - 8:10
4. Eastern Eagles (KY) - 8:14
5. Beavercreek Beavers (OH) - 8:18
Analysis: The boy's 4x800-meter relay has the potential to be the most predictable race of this meet...or the potential to be the most chaotic race of the meet (as most good 4x800-meter relay battles tend to be).
The Mason Comets of Ohio are entered with a seed time of 7:46 which, in theory, should put them head and shoulders above the rest of the field. However, seed times aren't always the most reliable, especially with constantly changing and unpredictable lineups.
I'm still putting Mason on top, but I don't think they'll run too close to their 7:46 mark. Even so, their seed time is just too good to ignore, so I'm going to go out on a limb and putting some confidence behind the Comets.
In my mind, the most likely candidates for an upset are the Oldham Colonels who won the KTCCCA Invitational on this same track back in January. Combine that with 50.90 (400) and 1:55 (800) runner, Matthew Whitlock, on the anchor leg and there's a fairly solid chance that the Colonels come out on top.
