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PREDICTIONS: 2024 VA XC Showcase

  • Writer: Donald Speas
    Donald Speas
  • Oct 18, 2024
  • 5 min read

Predictions & analysis by Donny Speas, edits & commentary via Garrett Zatlin

Typically, when we think of the meet name "VA Showcase," we think of the blazing fast track meet located in Virginia Beach. However, within the last year, that label has expanded to include cross country, taking over what we used to know as the MileStat Invitational.


Last year at this meet, we saw current Notre Dame freshman, Drew Griffith, run 14:21 for 5000 meters which would stand up as the fastest 5000-meter run nationwide during the 2023 cross country season. In the 2023 girl's race, we saw an incredibly tight team battle with Cardinal Gibbons prevailing over Mount Tabor with both teams averaging 18:10 (5k) or faster.


While this year doesn't seem quite as loaded, there still are plenty of interesting storylines. And with many states having "down" weeks before the postseason kicks off, the VA Showcase clearly takes center stage this weekend.

Girl's Individual Race (5k)

  1. Abby Faith Cheeseman (Webb School of Bell Buckle) - 16:45

  2. Kate Loescher (Colonial Forge) - 17:12

  3. Elaina Pierce (Charlottesville) - 17:18

  4. Karina Bird (James W. Robinson) - 17:25

  5. Caroline Barton (Carolina Day School) - 17:27

  6. Kerrigan Chaney (North Cross) - 17:32

  7. Caitlin Kasten (Covenant Day School) - 17:34

  8. Petra Gruendel (James W. Robinson) - 17:40

  9. Caroline Elliott (South Lakes) - 17:45

  10. Kasey Dingman (Lake Norman) - 17:48


Analysis: I am very very excited to see how fast Abby Faith Cheeseman can run this weekend. This year has been an incredibly fast one across the board, and with this course's reputation, I think it's almost inevitable that we see Faith Cheeseman chase after a blazing-fast time. All this being said, it's no guarantee that Faith Cheeseman will take home the individual title Saturday morning as there is a wide host of challengers who will be there if she has an "off" day.


In addition to Faith Cheeseman, there are two other athletes who have achieved sub-17:30 clockings over the 5000-meter distance. Those two girls are Colonial Forge senior Kate Loescher and Charlottesville junior Elaina Pierce.


Pierce is yet to lose a cross country race this fall and most recently ran 17:27 for 5000 meters. Additionally, she does have a marquee win at this year's competitive Oatlands Invitational, a field that included many athletes in this race...including Kate Loescher


While Loescher might have lost to Pierce earlier this year, she's still my pick to take runner-up honors this weekend (and I do believe that she has a non-zero chance at the win). The main reason for my confidence is Loescher's massive win at the Great American XC Festival over a stacked field. And after a statement win like that, I think she's got a great race in store for us come Saturday morning.

Boy's Individual Race (5k)

  1. Soheib Dissa (Newtown) - 14:46

  2. Micheal Haskin (Asheville) - 14:58

  3. Hayden Goodman (Woodbridge) - 15:03

  4. Nathan Lee (Brunswick) - 15:06

  5. Trent Daniels (Gainesville) - 15:06

  6. Caleb Tenney (St. Vincent Pallotti) - 15:07

  7. Tate Shore (Regan) - 15:10

  8. Tristan Yoder (Broadway) - 15:12

  9. Eric Duncan (Lord Botetourt) - 15:13

  10. Ben Marks (Queen Anne's) - 15:14


Analysis: Newtown senior Soheib Dissa is the only athlete in this field with a sub-15:00 seasonal best (5k). He also has the best finish in an elite field (2nd at the Great American XC Festival) and has track times which give me confidence in his kicking abilities (1:52 PR for 800 meters).


So in case you couldn't guess, Dissa is our pick to cross the line before the rest of the competition this Saturday. He is, after all, our TSR #49 recruit for a reason. However, behind Dissa, it gets incredibly messy.


There are a ton of guys entered this weekend with a 5k seasonal best in the low 15-minute range. Luckily, we saw many of them compete relatively recently at the Great American XC Festival or at the Manhattan College XC Invite, giving us at least some data to go off of.


I really like Asheville senior Micheal Haskin for 2nd place. He's yet to have a bad race this season and is fresh off of a 15:01 performance. There's a really strong possibility that we see him dip under the 15-minute barrier for the first time this weekend.


For similar reasons, I chose Woodbridge senior Hayden Goodman for 3rd place. He's yet to have a bad race during his (admittedly brief) 2024 campaign and he ran 15:07 (5k) in his last outing, good enough for a top-10 finish at the Great American XC Festival.

Girl's Team Race

  1. James W. Robinson Rams (VA)

  2. Blacksburg Bruins (VA)

  3. Langley Saxons (VA)

  4. Spotswood Trailblazers (VA)

  5. Father Tolton Trailblazers (MO)


Analysis: When I first dove into this article, I certainly didn't expect to see one team that's head-and-shoulders above the rest of the field. Then, I looked at the cross country resume that the James W. Robinson Rams have put together this fall. And upon review, they have multiple wins as well as a runner-up finish at the Great American XC Festival this season.


It's a real possibility that, even in a field as top-heavy as this one, we see both of the team's top-two scorers (Karina Bird and Petra Gruendel) finish as top-10 individuals.


Behind the Rams, we have a host of talented squads, many of whom hail from Virginia. One team many readers may recognize is the seven-time NXN qualifiers, Blacksburg Bruins, who are in a very good position to claim runner-up honors this Saturday.


One of the main reasons why I'm picking Blacksburg for the runner-up spot is because their top trio composed of Tess Dickhans, Eliza Conway and Lola Olsen have had some great momentum-boosting performances over the last couple of weeks.

Boy's Team Race

  1. Blacksburg Bruins (VA)

  2. St. Albans Bulldogs (DC)

  3. Calvert Hall (Cardinals)

  4. Greer Middle College Blazers (SC)

  5. Hanover Hawks (VA)


Analysis: The two contenders for this race (in my opinion) are the Blacksburg Bruins and the St. Albans Bulldogs. The Bulldogs have already taken down Blacksburg once in September led by the three-headed scoring monster of Sebi Hume, William Strong and Liam Quinn.


All three of those aforementioned seniors have run under the 16-minute barrier on multiple occasions and will be instrumental in the Bulldog's success this weekend.


So, naturally, I'm sure you're wondering why I have Blacksburg over St. Albans in my predictions. And, of course, I have the answer (it wouldn't be much of an article otherwise).


When you look at Blacksburg's most recent race (the Great American XC Festival), they had a lethal 14-second time-spread between their first and fifth runners. Based on that fact alone, I'm confident that if Blacksburg can get even marginally close to that spread on Saturday, then they can pull off the win (especially in a field as large as this one).

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