PREDICTIONS: 2024 Nike Outdoor Nationals

Donald Speas
Jun 11, 2024
8 min read

Predictions & analysis by Donny Speas, additional edits & commentary via Garrett Zatlin

Looking to fill your national meet craving after the NCAA Outdoor Championships? Stuck in Eugene and have an empty week between the NCAA Outdoor Championships and the Olympic Trials?

Well, luckily enough, Nike Outdoor Nationals is also at Hayward Field this upcoming weekend. Nike Outdoor Nationals draws top talent from all across the country (although admittedly, the entries seemed more skewed towards the west coast) as they look to finish off their seasons with one last chance for greatness.

Look down below for our predictions for all of the distance races!

CLICK HERE FOR ENTRIES

Girl's 800 Meters

Tessa Buswell (Poway) - 2:05
Sophia Bendet (Randolph) - 2:06
Paige Stuart (Blue Springs) - 2:06
L'Mio Edwards (Claremont) - 2:06
Makenna Herbst (Carlsbad) - 2:07

Analysis: Tessa Buswell has been on a hot streak this past month, picking up victories at the CIF State Championships and the HOKA Festival of Miles. And frankly, I don't see a reason for wy that momentum would stop any time soon.

A bunch of athletes in this field have also run in/around the 2:06 to 2:07 range for 800 meters, so don't be surprised if we see a very tightly-packed race up front.

Boy's 800 Meters

Martin Barco (Martinsville) - 1:49
Tyler Mathews (Red Mountain) - 1:49
Noah Neilson (American Fork) - 1:49
Cooper Lutkenhaus (Justin Northwest) - 1:50
Corbin Coombs (Organ Mountain) - 1:51

Analysis: Typically, I'd pick an athlete such as Tyler Matthews or Noah Neilson to win this race. However, seeing as both those athletes (as well as a couple of others in this field) will be competing at the Brooks PR invitational earlier in the week, I feel better picking an athlete with fresher legs, such as Washington commit Martin Barco, to take the win. Keep an eye on Corbin Coombs (Organ Mountain) as he's a lot better than his 1:52 (800) personal best may suggest.

Girl's Mile

Jane Hedengren (Timpview) - 4:38
Elizabeth Leachman (Boerne Champion) - 4:42
Dylan McElhinney (Hunter College) - 4:42
Chloe Huyler (Lake Oswego) - 4:43
Payton Meineke (Thornton) - 4:44

Analysis: I don't think that Jane Hedengren will have too much trouble taking the win in this race barring any unforeseen injuries or illness. I think the bigger question is, how fast will Hedengren run?

While it's certainly possible that she improves upon her 4:35 personal best, I don't think it's likely considering that she'll be coming off of a fast two-mile effort at the Brooks PR Invitational earlier in the week. In my eyes, the runner with the best chance of pulling off an upset is the sophomore superstar Elizabeth Leachman. Despite mainly being known for her exploits over longer events, she is still a formidable competitor over the mile distance.

Boy's Mile

Jojo Jourdon (Olympus) - 3:59
Nathan Neil (Bozeman) - 3:59
Thomas Latham (Marist) - 4:00
James Partlow (Governor Thomas Johnson) - 4:01
Owen Powell (Mercer Island) - 4:02

Analysis: Jojo Jourdon has the only sub-four-minute personal best in this field and that's good enough for me to put him as the slight favorite at the top of my predictions. However, this will by no means be an easy victory as there's a large collection of athletes who have run under 4:04 for the mile distance and it wouldn't surprise me if someone like Nathan Neil (Bozeman) or Thomas Latham (Marist) takes the win and/or dips under the four-minute barrier.

Girl's Two-Mile

Elizabeth Leachman (Boerne Champion) - 9:49
Jaelyn Williams (Eastlake) - 9:58
Rylee Blade (Santiago Corona) - 10:00
Emily Wisniewski (Crescent Valley) - 10:02
Addison Dorenkamp (West Des Moines) - 10:07

Analysis: Elizabeth Leachman has a lot of good memories at Nike Nationals, winning both the two-mile and the 5000-meter titles during the indoor track season. She also holds the fastest personal best of any athlete in the field by a considerable margin. All of this is to say that Leachman is my pick for the win. Watch out for Jaelyn Williams, the California state champion who could certainly pull off an upset victory if Leachman has an "off" day.

Boy's Two-Mile

Evan Noonan (Dana Hills) - 8:47
Bryon Grevious (Phillips Exeter) - 8:47
Grant Morgenfeld (Palo Alto) - 8:50
Malachi Schoenherr (Sheldon) - 8:52
Landon Heemeyer (Rocky Mountain) - 8:53

Analysis: This looks like it will be a great middle-ground showdown between Evan Noonan, a 4:06 miler, and Bryon Grevious, a 14:04 (5k) runner. In my eyes, Noonan has had a more impressive regular season, so I'm giving him the nod here.

Some other names to watch are Grant Morgenfeld (8:44 personal best for 3200 meters), Malachi Schoenherr (the Oregon 6A champion over 3000 meters who has run 14:27 for 5k) and Landon Heemeyer (two-time top-15 finisher on the national stage during cross country).

Girl's 5000 Meters

Emily Wisniewski (Crescent Valley) - 16:12
Logan Hofstee (East Valley) - 16:17
Gioana Lopizzo (La Costa Canyon) - 16:20
Liv Phillips (Naperville Central) - 16:34
Shannon Zugelder (Star Point Central) - 16:41

Analysis: The 5000 meters at the high school level is always a super hard race to predict as you get a lot of athletes who have only ever run the 5000-meter distance on a cross country course, giving us very little data to analyze.

However, one firm data point that we do have is that there are two athletes entered in this race who have finished in the top-10 at the cross country national meet. Those two athletes are Emily Wisniewski and Logan Hofstee.

Unsurprisingly, those are the athletes who I have going 1-2 in this race. Keep an eye on Gioana Lopizzo who has had a strong under-the-radar season and could make things interesting if she's hanging around during the later parts of this race.

Boy's 5000 Meters

Tayvon Kitchen (Crater) - 14:31
Riku Sugie (Thomas Nelson) - 14:32
Joshua Chu (Ponderosa) - 14:38
Davis Rydman (Layton) - 14:42
Ty Cirino (Central) - 14:46

Analysis: Tayvon Kitchen looks like the class of this field. He comes into this race boasting a 14:18 (5k) personal best, by far the fastest among all entered athletes. However, it would be foolish to count out the rest of the field.

One athlete with arguably just as strong track credentials (at least over the shorter distances) as Tayvon Kitchen is Riku Sugie. The Kentucky native has run 8:48 (3200) and 4:11 (1600) during this outdoor track season.

Girl's 2000-Meter Steeplechase

Tula Fawbush (Oldham County) - 6:40
Summer Wilson (JSerra Catholic) - 6:42
Victoria Rodriguez (Mercer Island) - 6:43
Joanna Kenney (North Shore) - 6:59
Claire Sivitz (Howard) - 7:00

Analysis: This looks very much like a three-way battle for the title between the only three athletes who have run under seven minutes in this field: Tula Fawbush (Oldham County), Summer Wilson (JSerra Catholic) and Victoria Rodriguez (Mercer Island).

On any given day, this race could go a variety of ways, but I'm giving the nod to Fawbush based on the remarkable consistency that she's demonstrated in the steeplechase during her spring campaign.

Boy's 2000-Meter Steeplechase

Marcelo Parra (Celerity Performance) - 5:56
Logan Schaeffler (Sanford H. Calhoun) - 5:58
Corbin Randall (Riverton) - 6:02
Caleb Woolford (Maple Mountain) - 6:06
Kyle Rohlinger (Coeur D' Alene) - 6:08

Analysis: Marcelo Parra is the only athlete entered in this meet who can claim a 2000-meter steeplechase personal best that's under six minutes. Consequently, Parra is my pick for the win, but hey, it is the steeplechase and it's been proven time and time again that anything can happen in this event.

The two athletes who look like they'll present the most challenge for Parra are Marist commit Logan Schaeffler who has run 4:12 for 1600 meters and Riverton junior Corbin Randall who has run 6:05 for the 2000 meter steeplechase. He also just earned a win against a solid field at the Great Southwest Classic.

Girl's 4x800-Meter Relay

South Lakes Seahawks - 8:53
Santiago Corona Sharks - 8:58
JSerra Catholic Lions - 9:03
Arcadia Apaches - 9:10
Del Norte Nighthawks - 9:13

Analysis: This race is full of teams hailing from California and interestingly enough, 50% of the entire field comes from the Golden State, meaning many of these teams are more than likely familiar with each other.

However, the top team in this field, and the only team who has run under nine minutes this season, comes from the opposite side of the country. I am, of course, talking about the South Lakes Seahawks who ran 8:50 to take 2nd place at Penn Relays this April. If South Lakes slips up, don't be shocked if a team like Santiago Corona or JSerra Catholic can capitalize and pull off an upset win.

Boy's 4x800-Meter Relay

American Fork Caveman - 7:36
Downers North Trojans - 7:40
Granada Matadors - 7:40
Jets Track Club (AL) - 7:42
Valhalla Track Club - 7:42

Analysis This looks like it's going to be one of the faster races of the weekend with five teams entered in at 7:43 or faster and two teams entered in at under 7:40.

The fastest of the teams are the American Fork Cavemen who ran a mind-boggling mark of 7:31 earlier this year. No other team in this field has come within seven seconds of that mark and I think it would take a minor miracle for an upset.

However, an upset is possible, especially if a team like the Downers North Trojans are all on their "A" game...or if American Fork drops a baton.

Girl's 4xMile Relay

Forest Park Track Club - 20:22
Menlo-Atherton Bears - 21:02
Sherwood Bowmen - 21:09
North Andover Scarlet Knights - 21:21
Arlington Spy Ponders 21:22

Analysis: Forest Park Track Club looks like they should take the win fairly convincingly. They are the only team with a per-leg average under five minutes for the mile and they have the best individual athlete in this race on the anchor leg, 4:40 miler Ellery Lincoln.

Keep an eye on the Melo-Atherton Bears -- they have two amazing legs in Tatum Olsen (Virginia commit) and Annie Pflaum (Dartmouth commit). If the Bears' remaining two runners have a good day, then they'll be able to separate themselves from the chase pack fairly convincingly.

Boy's 4xMile Relay

American Fork Cavemen - 16:59
Mounds View Mustangs - 17:06
Bismarck Demon Track Club - 17:09
Loyola Cubs - 17:12
Adelphia Track Club - 17:16

Analysis: I'm sorry if I sound like a broken record, but I once again have American Fork at the top spot in my predictions. Yes, I know this isn't the same lineup that ran 16:47 earlier in the year, but they still have an incredible amount of firepower and are capable of going head-to-head with anyone in the country.

Behind the Cavemen there are a plethora of deep teams highlighted by the Mounds View Mustangs who look like the best of the bunc. They are more than capable of going head-to-head with American Fork, especially if junior Owen Kalmes has a good leg.

Girl's DMR

Forest Park Track Club - 11:47
South Lakes Seahawks - 11:51
La Canada Spartans - 11:57
The Jets Track Club (KY) - 12:00
North Shore Vikings - 12:04

Analysis: This race features four out of the top-five finishers from last year's Nike Outdoor Nationals and, surprise surprise, those are the four teams that I've occupying the top-four spots in our predictions.

While South Lakes has a serious case to be the favorite due to their immense depth at 800 meters, I'm giving the nod to Forest Park Track Club because of how much ground anchor Ellery Lincoln can make up.

Boy's DMR

Ventura Cougars - 10:00
The Episcopal School Panthers - 10:02
The Oregon Distance Project - 10:02
Loyola Cubs - 10:06
Team Onalaska - 10:10

Analysis: The Ventura Cougars hold the DMR fastest time in the nation and while there are a lot of very deep and talented squads in this race. I think they'll ultimately be able to translate their early-season success into a national title, especially with Oregon signee Anthony Fast Horse on the anchor leg. One team very capable of playing spoiler is the Oregon Distance Project, the defending champions in this event.