PREDICTIONS: 2024 Great American XC Festival (High School)

Donald Speas
Oct 4, 2024
4 min read

Predictions & analysis by Donny Speas, additional edits & commentary via Garrett Zatlin

The WakeMed Soccer Park is home to one of the fastest cross country courses east of the Mississippi (if you need any convincing, simply look at the results of this recent college race). It's also the site of the NXR Southeast Championships.

This weekend, the course is hosting the Great American XC Festival, and despite the recent rough weather that has been affecting much of the Eastern Seaboard, it looks like the quality of this field hasn't dipped at all. Many of the top teams in the Southeast region are venturing to Cary, North Carolina to test their fitness on a blazing fast cross country course.

Pay special attention to the boy's individual race this Saturday. Outside of perhaps the Woodbridge XC Classic, this looks like the strongest collection of individuals that we've seen toe the line during the 2024 cross country season.

Girl's Individual Race (5k)

Carolina Areheart (Webb School of Knoxville) - 17:16
Hannah Rae Shaffer (Cardinal Gibbons) - 17:19
Jazzlyn Garmer (Webb School of Knoxville) - 17:22
Caroline Barton (Carolina Day School) - 17:23
Maysen Fletcher (Herbert Hoover) - 17:26
Calysta Garmer (Webb School of Knoxville) - 17:29
Mackenzie De Lisle (Bishop Verot) - 17:30
Katie Payne (Tatnall) - 17:37
Kate Loescher (Colonial Forge) - 17:40
Kaitlyn Estep (Cardinal Gibbons) - 17:42

Analysis: I see this as a race with two, possibly three, potential winners. The favorite is undoubtedly Webb of Knoxville junior, Carolina Areheart. The Tennessee-based talent holds the fastest 5000-meter seasonal best of all entered athletes (17:19) and is undefeated on the year, including a statement win at the always-competitive Trinity/Valkyrie invitational.

The other main contender (in my mind) for the win on Saturday morning is Cardinal Gibbons senior, Hannah Rae Shaffer. The North Carolina commit is the top returner from last year's meet (where she finished behind only Abby Faith Cheesman, a 16:19 over 5000 meters), and has run 17:50 for 5000 meters this fall. Admittedly, Shaffer didn't look the sharpest at the Roy Griak Invitational during her last race, but I firmly believe that she's a lot better than that result indicates.

The final athlete to highlight in this section is Webb of Knoxville junior, Jazzlyn Garmer, who holds a personal best of 17:28 for 5000 meters. She could pull off the upset if everything breaks just right for her.

Boy's Individual Race (5k)

Marcelo Mantecon (Belen Jesuit) - 14:38
Thomas Latham (Marist) - 14:40
Kavi Gibson (Cary Academy) - 14:42
Brady Mullen (Jesuit) - 14:43
Malachi Schoenherr (Sheldon) - 14:46
Riku Sugie (Thomas Nelson) - 14:47
Lincoln Herald (Grant Academy) - 14:48
Liam Jordan (Berkley Prep) - 14:56
David Rivlin (Marvin Ridge) - 15:00
Tate Shore (Regan) - 15:01

Analysis: This is definitely the race that I'm most excited for this weekend. I see seven legitimate competitors for the individual title this weekend.

If I were a betting man, I'd put my money on the Belen Jesuit superstar, Marcelo Mantecon, who has run 15:00 (5k) this cross country season. He was very close to becoming an All-American in cross country as only a freshman last fall.

However, this will be far from an easy win for Mantecon. I could very easily see an athlete who was coming off a monster track season taking the victory on the fast and flat WakeMed course. Those names include Marist senior, Thomas Latham (4:01 miler) or Notre Dame commit, Riku Sugie (Nike Outdoor Nationals 5k champion).

The more I scroll through these entries, the more excited I get for this race. Make sure you keep an eye on Brady Mullen (Wingfoot XC Classic champion), Kavin Gibson (14:42 for 5k), Malachi Schoenherr (Oregon state champion over 3000 meters), and Lincoln Herald (one of the most underrated athletes in the Southeast region).

Girl's Team Race

Webb of Knoxville Spartan (TN)
Cardinal Gibbons Crusaders (NC)
James Robinson Rams (VA)
Cuthbertson Cavaliers (NC)
Blacksburg Bruins (VA)

Analysis: In case you couldn't tell after reading our girl's individual predictions, I'm a big fan of the team that Webb of Knoxville has. The Spartans hold three upper-tier low-sticks in Carolina Areheart, Jazzlyn Garmer and Calysta Garmer, all of whom have run 17:33 or faster for 5000 meters this cross country season.

It's a very realistic possibility that the Spartans score less than 12 points through their first three runners. Unfortunately, Webb of Knoxville's fourth and fifth scorers aren't quite up to the same caliber as their top-three, leaving the door open for a team like Cardinal Gibbons to pull off a win...

The Cardinal Gibbons Crusaders are our TSR #4 team for a reason. Most recently, they took the win at the Roy Griak Invitational over our TSR #22 squad, the Wayzata Trojans. The North Carolina-based squad has a much tighter top-five time spread than most of the other top squads in this meet (75 seconds) which will ultimately be the Crusader's path to a victory.

Throw in two potential single-digit scorers in Kaitlyn Estep and Hannah Rae Shaffer and you've got a team that has a real solid chance of winning the team title tomorrow morning.

Boy's Team Race

Belen Jesuit Wolverines (FL)
Jesuit Bluejays (LA)
Trinity Shamrocks (KY)
Marvin Rridge Mavericks (NC)
Broughton Caps (NC)

Analysis: There are five teams that come into this race with a team average that is faster than 16 minutes for 5000 meters. So, surprise surprise, they occupy the top-five spots in our predictions.

The best of the bunch looks to be the Belen Jesuit Wolverines, our TSR #5 team. They're the most complete team in the Southeast region by a good margin (in my semi-professional opinion), coming off of a healthy 50-point win over a deep field at the Southern Showcase.

The other top-10 squad in our rankings are the Jesuit Bluejays, hailing from Louisiana. The Bluejays are fresh off of a national-caliber win at the Wingfoot XC Classic and have a 15:38 average for 5000 meters. If any team is going to upset Belen Jesuit, then the Bluejays are my pick to do it.

The final squads who I want to highlight are the Ridgefield Tigers and the Huntsville Panthers. I feel that both of these squads have immense potential, but just haven't quite put it together this cross country season. While I don't have either squad in my top-five as of this moment, it really wouldn't shock me to see them finish as high as 3rd place in this field on Saturday morning.