PREDICTIONS: 2024 BIG Sky Indoor Championships

Maura Beattie
Feb 22, 2024
5 min read

*Denotes that a collegian is also entered in another individual event.

NOTE: TSR is aware that an athlete could/will scratch out of certain events to pursue a more manageable weekend double (or even triple). As such, TSR's predictions assume that an athlete is contesting a certain event as part of a weekend double/triple that would be deemed "reasonable." Unless shown otherwise in the entries, DMR predictions do not necessarily assume that a certain relay will feature the best possible lineup.

Women’s 800 Meters

Maggi Congdon (Northern Arizona) - 2:03
Regina Mpigachai (Northern Colorado)* - 2:06
Presley Timmons (Idaho State) - 2:09
Ava Mitchell (Northern Arizona)* - 2:09
Jada Zorn (Montana State) - 2:11

Analysis: This is the only event this weekend for Maggi Congdon (Northern Arizona) and based on those who she is facing, it’s bound to be a comfortable win for the Lumberjack. But rather than focus on Congdon, we’re going to look at Regina Mpigachai (Northern Colorado). The Bear athlete has yet to match her 2:04 (800) PR this season, only managing a seasonal best of 2:07. Mpigachai might not be able to catch Congdon this weekend, but she should be able to hold off Presley Timmons (Idaho State) and Ava Mitchell (Northern Arizona) down the homestretch.

Men’s 800 Meters

Colin Sahlman (Northern Arizona) - 1:46
Zac Bright (Idaho) - 1:47
Lorenz Herrmann (Idaho) - 1:47
Theo Quax (Northern Arizona)* - 1:48
Nico Young (Northern Arizona)* - 1:48

Analysis: Colin Sahlman (Northern Arizona) is the man to beat this weekend. He’s only contesting the 800 meters, and he's absolutely favored, but Zac Bright and Lorenz Herrmann should be able to give the NAU sophomore a respectable challenge. An interesting name in this field is Lumberjack veteran, Nico Young. The star distance athlete has a modest 1:54 (800) PR, but with the way that he’s been running throughout this indoor track season, Young should be able to smash that personal best. And if you think his strength is transferrable to the half-mile, then he could maybe go as fast as 1:47.

Women’s Mile

Alyson Churchill (Northern Arizona)* - 4:34
Karrie Baloga (Northern Arizona)* - 4:34
Annika Reiss (Northern Arizona)* - 4:35
Nikita Moore (Northern Arizona)* - 4:37
Ali Upshaw (Northern Arizona)* - 4:37

Analysis: Since transferring to Northern Arizona from Florida State, distance standout Alyson Churchill has been on a new level. The Lumberjack runner is the favorite amongst her teammates this weekend at the BIG Sky Championships. However, it is still expected to be close. Freshman Karrie Baloga has been solid this winter in both the mile and the 3000 meters while Annika Reiss has proven to be a national-caliber miler in the past.

Men’s Mile

Nico Young (Northern Arizona)* - 3:56
Theo Quax (Northern Arizona)* - 3:57
Aaron Las Heras (Northern Arizona)* - 3:58
Harvey Cramb (Montana State)* - 3:59
Kang Nyoak (Northern Arizona)* - 3:59

Analysis: Northern Arizona’s Nico Young and Theo Quax are two of the more versatile athletes in the NCAA this season. Young’s remarkable 3:57 mile at 7000 feet of altitude, with a conversion of 3:48, stands out amongst the field. His teammate, Theo Quax, is the other top dog with his conversion of 3:54. Even though there are more Lumberjack men entered, Montana State’s Harvey Cramb has the chance to break up an NAU sweep. Cramb’s altitude-converted 3:58 mile effort makes him the right sleeper pick.

Women’s 3k

Alyson Churchill (Northern Arizona)* - 9:06
Ruby Smee (Northern Arizona)* - 9:09
Karrie Baloga (Northern Arizona)* - 9:09
Annika Reiss (Northern Arizona) - 9:10
Gracelyn Larkin (Northern Arizona) - 9:10

Analysis: There’s not much to say here as the women of Flagstaff, Arizona have a stronghold on the 3k field. Alyson Churchill has the best PR in the field with her 8:55 (3k) run earlier this season, effectively making her the de facto favorite. But in a field that is also headlined by teammates Ruby Smee, Karrie Baloga, Annika Reiss and Gracelyn Larkin, it largely doesn't matter to NAU what order they finish in. One second or five seconds could separate 2nd through 5th place as the Northern Arizona women will most likely race this 3k in a single-file line until the final lap.

Men’s 3k

Nico Young (Northern Arizona)* - 7:49
Aaron Las Heras (Northern Arizona)* - 7:50
Drew Bosley (Northern Arizona)* - 7:50
Ben Perrin (Montana State)* - 7:53
Theo Quax (Northern Arizona)* - 7:55

Analysis: Ben Perrin of Montana State is a time trial stud. He performs extremely well in fast-paced races and has performed exceptionally well at altitude while on his home track. This weekend, however, will be a test for the Bobcat star as he faces a slew of Northern Arizona stars. With the likes of Nico Young, Aaron Las Heras and (maybe?) Drew Bosley, a trio of men who have run 7:37 or faster for 3k -- and Theo Quax having also run 7:39 a few weeks back -- it’s going to be tough for Perrin to break through that Lumberjack line. Of course, it's not entirely clear if Bosley will even run this weekend.

Women’s 5k

Annika Reiss (Northern Arizona)* - 15:42
Elise Stearns (Northern Arizona) - 15:43
Ali Upshaw (Northern Arizona)* - 15:43
Ruby Smee (Northern Arizona)* - 15:45
Nikita Moore (Northern Arizona)* - 15:52

Analysis: The Northern Arizona women are going to have a party this weekend over 5000 meters. All five women mentioned above have the opportunity to win this event, especially considering that it (probably) won’t be won in a lights-out time. It was too hard to pick a winner, but since we have to predict the top-five, I'll say that Annika Reiss should come out on top. Ali Uphsaw and Ruby Smee have been consistently recording impressive times this winter and Nikita Moore is finding her groove late into the season. Elise Stearns is the only question mark as the 15:33 (5k) runner hasn’t raced since December.

Men’s 5k

Drew Bosley (Northern Arizona)* - 13:40
Aaron Las Heras (Northern Arizona)* - 13:40
Ben Perrin (Montana State)* - 13:45
Brodey Hasty (Northern Arizona)* - 13:49
Matthew Richtman (Montana State)* - 13:50

Analysis: Since it’s a conference meet, it’s hard to determine if the men’s 5k will be won in a sub-13:30 time. If that is the case, then expect to find Drew Bosley (Northern Arizona) near the front as he is currently sitting at NCAA #23 on the national leaderboard for 5000 meters. Of course, that's assuming that he'll even run -- he hasn't raced since December 2nd. But even if he doesn't race, Aaron Las Heras and Brodey Hasty should be able to sandwich Ben Perrin.

Women’s DMR

Northern Arizona Lumberjacks - 11:19
Montana State Bobcats - 11:27
Weber State Wildcats - 11:33
Northern Colorado Bears - 11:44
Idaho Vandals - 11:49
Eastern Washington Eagles - 12:16
Montana Grizzlies - 12:33
Idaho State Bengals - 12:34
Portland State Vikings - 12:35
Sacramento State Hornets - 12:41

Analysis: The Lumberjacks aren’t fielding their top talents aside from Maggi Congdon on the DMR this weekend. There won’t be an eye-popping time produced, but the Northern Arizona women should still earn the victory. Montana State and Weber State will be in the fight for 2nd place, but the nod for that spot is going to go to the Bobcats due to Ava Weems and Kendra Lusk being in their lineup.

Men’s DMR

Northern Arizona Lumberjacks - 9:36
Montana State Bobcats - 9:45
Northern Colorado Bears - 9:51
Weber State Wildcats - 9:53
Idaho Vandals - 10:00
Idaho State Bengals - 10:02
Montana Grizzlies - 10:14
Eastern Washington Eagles - 10:16
Portland State Vikings - 10:21

Analysis: Northern Arizona may have the top time in DMR this season, but the lineup that just ran 9:17 last weekend isn’t expected to contest this event at the BIG Sky Championships. Regardless, the Lumberjacks should still walk away with the win given the endless amount of talent and depth on their roster.