.png)
NCAA Regional Qualifier Projections
- Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
- May 24, 2018
- 21 min read
It's finally that time of the year! For track nerds like myself, this is my equivalent to a March Madness bracket. The pursuit for 100% accuracy in my regional qualifying picks is nearly impossible, but that won't stop me from overanalyzing and giving my best shot.
Below, you'll find TSR's projected qualifiers for in both regions. We'll start each distance event by giving you our projected qualifiers and then explaining the thought process behind those picks.
You can view all of our picks in one place on our "PREDICTIONS" page. You can also view our Google Sheets link as well if that is easier to view. Both will be updated throughout the weekend to let you know which of our picks were correct and incorrect.
Let's begin...
EAST REGION
800
Isaiah Harris (Penn State)
Robert Heppenstall (Wake Forest)
John Lewis (Clemson)
Matt Wisner (Duke)
Avery Bartlett (Georgia Tech)
Daniel Kuhn (Indiana)
Alex Lomong (Ohio State)
Dejon Devroe (Mississippi State)
Kyren Hollis (Florida)
Jordan Makins (Penn State)
Josh Ingalls (Princeton)
Otis Jones (South Carolina)
--------------------
First Man Out: Marco Arop (Mississippi State)
As we look over these names, some of them are obvious and easy choices. Isaiah Harris is a young star of the NCAA, Robert Heppenstall is slowly becoming a postseason legend, and Daniel Kuhn is an All-American veteran with multiple NCAA appearances. John Lewis is coming off an All-American performance from this past winter while Avery Bartlett is having the best season of his life with multiple personal bests, an upset win over Isaiah Harris, and an ACC title.
I like Dejon Devroe in this field because of his racing style. He's not afraid to go to the front and make things fast (just like John Lewis). If he does that this weekend, he'll escape the tactical aspect of the Regional Championships and give himself a fast enough time to stay within qualifying.
Wisner was the top (attached) collegiate at the Duke Invite where he defeated names like Vincent Ciattei, Diego Zarate, Blaine Lacey, and a pair of District TC pros. He hasn't been perfect, but he has a lot of big race experience and is always in the mix.
The same goes for Otis Jones who has tons of big race experience this season. He has slowly dropped his personal best down to 1:47 and secured bronze in a very deep SEC 800 field.
Similarly, Jordan Makins is one of my sleeper picks for this weekend. His performances have slowly improved from 1:50.65 to 1:49.86 to 1:48.80 to 1:48.62. He has yet to hit his personal best of 1:48.54, but he is trending in the right direction which can be extremely dangerous to other competitors.
I really like my Kyren Hollis pick for a few reasons. He's a great sleeper who has run under 1:50 every time he's run the event this season (three times). He set a new PR at the end of the season and held his own in an ultra competitive SEC 800 field. Not only that, but I am personally a big fan of Florida 800 runners. The Gators have had Andres Arroyo and Ryan Schnulle headline this event for them over the past few years and I imagine they'll want to continue that history of excellence. I believe one Florida half-miler will qualify for NCAA's and Hollis is my best bet.
At the Ivy League Championships, Josh Ingalls ran back-to-back PR's, clocked a 1:47, secured the conference title, and defeated a slew of talented 800 runners. That has to be a huge confidence booster for this weekend and I imagine he'll use that title performance as momentum.
Ohio State's Alex Lomong may be a sophomore, but this guy has been incredibly consistent with his performances. He's had a string of really good races this season, but really broke out with his 1:47 at BIG 10's two weeks ago.
Naturally, you have to leave out a few notable names. Guys like Cooper Williams (Indiana) and Marco Arop (Mississippi State) are the two big names I have not qualifying.
When I look at Arop, I see him as one of the better 800 runners in this field. However, his struggles in the postseason last winter have left me cautious with my predictions.
As for Williams, his 1:46 at BIG 10's was a massive performance, but was it almost too good? He ran back-to-back personal bests at the BIG 10 Championships, but his performances prior to that weren't faster than 1:48. In fact, Williams had only run under 1:50 once during the indoor season (1:49.78) and ran under 1:50 during outdoors for the first time in his career at the Tennessee Relays in mid-April. I love breakout stories, but that is a huge jump and I'm curious if he'll be able to replicate that performance this weekend.
1500
Johnny Leverenz (Butler)
Robert Domanic (Ole Miss)
Nick Morken (North Florida)
William Paulson (Princeton)
Vincent Ciattei (Virginia Tech)
Justine Kiprotich (Michigan State)
Yared Nuguse (Notre Dame)
Joseph Murphy (Indiana)
Ben Young (Kentucky)
Amos Bartelsmeyer (Georgetown)
Waleed Suliman (Ole Miss)
Diego Zarate (Virginia Tech)
--------------------
First Man Out: Colin Schultz (Liberty)
Much like the 800, there are easy names to choose. Vincent Ciattei was an All-American miler during the indoor season and was an ACC champion a few weeks ago. Robert Domanic ran 3:36 at Bryan Clay and now ranks top 10 all-time in the NCAA. Amos Bartelsmeyer has been one of the best milers in the nation for the past few years. Those three should be able to make it to Eugene pretty easily.
Paulson was an Ivy League champion in the 1500 and then ran 3:39 at the Swarthmore Final Qualifier. He made the cut for NCAA's last spring and I see him doing the same thing again.
Justine Kiprotich may not be showing signs that he's the silver medalist we saw in 2017, but he's still a phenomenal tactical runner. After his runner-up finish at BIG 10's, I think he's trending in the right direction.
If you're looking for another great tactical runner, Diego Zarate may be your guy. He may not get a lot of attention, but that's because he has to run behind Vincent Ciattei. Zarate has been a top finisher at ACC's for the last two seasons and knows how to navigate crowded fields. I think he'll excel this weekend.
Guys like Waleed Suliman and Yared Nuguse have me a little unsure of them when I look at their youth, but they have been running way too well way too often for me to dismiss them.
Nick Morken is a key sleeper pick of mine. With personal bests of 3:42 and 1:48, he's well equipped for tactical racing and is capable of hanging with the best in a fast race. He has yet to have a bad race so far this season. The same can be said for Butler's Johnny Leverenz who is undefeated in the 1500 this season. I can't say enough good things about this guy. He'll qualify for NCAA's and if you look at his resume this season, you'll see why.
Ben Young and Joseph Murphy are the last two names to mention. Murphy is a veteran who seems to be really good in pretty much any event he races. Meanwhile, Ben Young is looking like the future of the SEC 1500 and mile. I'll admit, he struggled at his conference meet, but his win as USF and runner-up finish at the Florida Relays shows that he has a lot of potential.
There aren't many huge names that I'm leaving out. Jacob Dumford and Colin Schultz are two guys that could very easily be in the top 12, but based on the preliminary heats, I like the other names just a little bit more.
3000 Steeple
Noah Affolder (Syracuse)
Aidan Tooker (Syracuse)
Troy Reeder (Furman)
Michael Hall (Florida State)
Jamaine Coleman (Eastern Kentucky)
Max Benoit (Michigan State)
Wesley Kirui (Hampton)
Emmanuel Rotich (Tulane)
Sean Tobin (Ole Miss)
Tom Nobles (Charlotte)
Andrew Bowman (Oakland)
Simeon Roberts (East Tenn. State)
--------------------
First Man Out: James Quattlebaum (Clemson)
The steeplechase is one of those events that typically doesn't have a lot of surprises in terms of qualifying. When it comes to contenders, the younger guys typically do well. That's why I like Affolder and Kirui. They haven't given me a reason to doubt them. I'm on the bandwagon with these two freshmen.
The same can be said about guys like Nobles, Hall, Bowman, Roberts, and Benoit. They have been super consistent all season and their veteran status gives them a little bit of an edge as well.
Jamaine Coleman and Aidan Tooker have done well in the steeplechase, but that is how they have built their reputation in the NCAA. What I really like about these two is that they have thrived in other events like the 5000 meters. I like the range they bring to the table and I think that will bode well for them in this event.
It was an interesting move to see Sean Tobin go for the steeplechase instead of the 1500, but I think he's experienced enough to get through this event. His poor performance at the SEC Championships may be troubling to some, but I'd rather he get his bad race out of the way before the Regional Championships.
Guys like Troy Reeder and Emmanuel Rotich are favored to be All-Americans in this event. They are considered big names in the steeplechase and it would be shocking to see them not qualifying for Nationals.
It's hard for me to leave out a sub 8:50 guy like Fitsum Seyoum, but the freshman has only run the event twice this season. His 8:49 at ACC's was a huge improvement, but much like Cooper Williams in the 800, I'm unsure if a young guy can replicate that breakout performance. You could say the same thing about Affolder, but he was racing the steeplechase in high school. He's at least familiar with the event.
As for Charlotte's Mihret Coulter, I honestly don't have a good reason to leave him out. He's been super consistent, has constantly improved, and has a strong seed time of 8:49. His absence is more for the sake of diversity in our predictions.
5000
Vincent Kiprop (Alabama)
Justyn Knight (Syracuse)
Ben Veatch (Indiana)
Gilbert Kigen (Alabama)
Zach Long (Tennessee)
Tim McGowan (Penn State)
Lawrence Kipkoech (Campbell)
Amon Kemboi (Campbell)
Aaron Baumgarten (Michigan)
Nahom Solomon (Georgia Tech)
Casey Comber (Villanova)
Philo Germano (Syracuse)
--------------------
First Man Out: Paul Hogan (UMass Lowell)
In longer races like the 5k and 10k, the top seeds a bit more pronounced and have separated themselves from the rest of the field in terms of sheer fitness. The Alabama men, Justyn Knight, the Campbell duo, and Zach Long have shown us that they are more than capable of handling themselves on a stage like this.
After the top seeds, things get a bit more interesting. I like the experience that Philo Germano brings to the table. He ran a very strong 13:50 at the Stanford Invite earlier this season and has developed some 1500 speed as well. That combination of endurance and speed along with his veteran status makes him an easy pick for me.
Nahom Solomon is another name I feel pretty confident about. He is always in the mix with the top pack and he's capable of consistently producing strong results nearly every season. He's one of the better doublers in the NCAA (although he struggled at ACC's), which leads me to believe that he'll thrive after the 10k unlike a few of his competitors.
I'm not a big fan of choosing younger guys in the 5000 (mainly freshmen), but Ben Veatch is an exception. He's got a very underrated kick and has battled against some of the best in the nation prior to this season. When I look at his heat of the 5k, I'm not overwhelmed by talent like I am in heat two. He should be able to navigate through that level of competition and qualify for Eugene.
As I looked through the entry list, I thought Tim McGowan was a bit undervalued. Much like Veatch, he's seeded (in my opinion) in a relatively lighter heat. McGowan was 16th in the East Regional Championship 5k last year and I think that this will be the perfect opportunity for him to avenge last year's finish and qualify.
A lot of what I said about McGowan can be said about his BIG 10 rival Aaron Baumgarten. He pulled off the upset win at the BIG 10 Championships, but I'm not sure that he has shown his full potential. With a personal best of 7:57 in the 3000 meters, I think he has an edge to him that will allow him to stick with the pack and respond to surges. He was able to dictate the pace at BIG 10's and if he does that again, he'll be punching his ticket to NCAA's.
My last qualifier is Villanova's Casey Comber. He's a deep sleeper for many, but he's displayed a lot of positives over the past few seasons. The BIG East 5k Champion has a modest PR of 14:06, but he knows how to handle tactical races. Not only that, but he has a lot of untapped speed. We saw that untapped speed at Penn Relays where he split 3:59 on the Wildcats winning DMR. If the race gets tactical (and it has in the past), he may be able to surprise a few people with a big finish much like Butler's Euan Makepeace did last year.
The two big names that I left out of my qualifying list were Georgia's Bryan Kamau and Purdue's Jaret Carpenter. Both have run 13:44 this season, but each individual carries certain concerns.
Kamau's 13:44 was impressive, but other than that, he's never run under 14 minutes. In fact, his three best 5k times have been 13:44, 14:01, and 14:38. Simply put, Kamau is inexperienced in the 5000 and I'm worried that his Mt. SAC performance may have been a one-race wonder. However, I will give him credit and say that his 1500 speed could come in handy during a tactical race.
Carpenter's 13:44 isn't too surprising. I would think that someone of his caliber would be capable of hitting a time like that. However, he has struggled during championship season and his finishes at the BIG 10 Championships were rough at best. The sophomore is super talented, but I'm not sure he'll be ready for a race quite like this.
I also opted to leave Alfred Chelanga out of the picks for the 5k. As much as I love the Alabama men, it would be super surprising to see all three of them qualify for both the 5k and 10k. I think Chelanga will definitely qualify for the 10k, but he may not be able to push through tired legs on day three of Regionals.
10,000
Vincent Kiprop (Alabama)
Gilbert Kigen (Alabama)
Alfred Chelanga (Alabama)
Jonathan Green (Georgetown)
Colin Bennie (Syracuse)
Jacob Thomson (Kentucky)
Lawrence Kipkoech (Campbell)
Ben Flanagan (Michigan)
Peter Seufer (Virginia Tech)
Arsene Guillorel (Samford)
Elijah Moskowitz (NC State)
Azaria Kirwa (Liberty)
--------------------
First Man Out: Gilbert Kirui (Iona)
As I mentioned with the 5000, the top seeds in the 10k will most likely make it to Eugene without too many casualties. The Alabama trio, Kipkoech, Green, and Thomson have been so strong this season with phenomenal times and top finishes in nearly every race they toed the line for. As long as they go out there and execute their race plan, they'll qualify for the Big Dance.
Colin Bennie and Arsene Guillorel may not be guaranteed qualifiers, but they are aces for their respective squads and still safe picks. Guillorel was 4th in the NCAA 10k last spring and should be able to contend for that spot once again. I usually think of Bennie as a 5k runner, but his 28:37 at the Stanford Invite and string of solid finishes makes him hard to pick against.
Much like Philo Germano in the 5k, Ben Flanagan is an experienced veteran who is fresh off a BIG 10 title. He's got great confidence heading into this weekend and I would rather pick in favor of him than pick against him.
Azaria Kirwa and Elijah Moskowitz are a pair of runners that I would consider when making your picks. Kirwa has only raced twice this season, but he finished 3rd in both of those races. His seed time of 29:27 may seem underwhelming, but his personal best of 29:05 tells us that he has more to show.
As for Moskowitz, he's been extremely underrated over the past few seasons. He reminds me of Sam Parson's, the NC State distance star (now with Adidas) who led the program during 2016 and 2017. Moskowitz hasn't had a race that truly jumps off the page, but he's done enough to catch my attention. He has yet to run poorly this season and was able to get into a lot of big races against some talented competition. I think he'll surprise a few people and snag a qualifying spot.
WEST REGION
800
Michael Saruni (UTEP)
Devin Dixon (Texas A&M)
Jonah Koech (UTEP)
Abraham Alvarado (BYU)
Clay Lambourne (Utah State)
Vincent Crisp (Texas Tech)
Robert Ford (USC)
Michael Wilson (New Mexico)
Kevin White (Loyola-Illinois)
Bryce Hoppel (Kansas)
Alex Hanson (Central Arkansas)
Jaymes Dennison (Iowa State)
--------------------
First Man Out: Charles Jones (Texas Tech)
Saruni and Dixon are easy picks. Saruni is the NCAA record holder while Dixon has a seed time of 1:45. Unless you're trying to be really bold, these two will qualify for Nationals.
The same goes for Abraham Alvarado and Clay Lambourne. They have dominated the 800 meters throughout their careers. The two All-Americans have been here before and they'll handle this stage with relative ease.
USC's Robert Ford has had an up-and-down career within the 800, but he has looked unusually strong this spring. He won the PAC 12 title, ran 1:46, and has not run over 1:50 in the five times that he's run the 800 this season.
Jonah Koech is in a similar boat. He usually pursues the 1500, but he's returning to his roots after his 1:47 at the Desert Heat Classic. His two wins this season and impressive range from 400 to 1500 makes Koech a legitimate qualifying contender.
Vincent Crisp has yet to qualify for an outdoor National Championship in an individual event. After winning the BIG 12 title and running 1:46 earlier this season, I think he's ready to break that trend.
Guys like Michael Wilson and Alex Hanson have been under appreciated in terms of the results that they have been producing. Both are ranked within the top 20 of the West region and own season bests of 1:48.
Despite a seed time of 1:47, many would still consider Kevin White a sleeper pick (and I would agree). In the 14 attempts that White has had at the 800 throughout his career, he's only broken 1:50 twice. Usually, I would stay far away from picking a guy with a history like that. However, I feel like his 1500 PR of 3:45 gives him a unique edge over a field that is primarily 400/800 based. That could bode well for him in multiple rounds of a tiring event.
Jaymes Dennison and Roshon Roomes had breakout performances in 2017 and they continued to stay relevant this season. I only have so much room to make my picks, so I'm taking the veteran Dennison over the sophomore Roomes. Roomes showed that he was vulnerable after placing 7th at BIG 12's while Dennison placed 2nd.
Bryce Hoppel is my last pick to mention and if we're being honest, I'm not as certain about him as I am a few others. After struggling in the NCAA final during indoors, Hoppel has not been able to get back into his groove. He ran 1:47 twice during indoors, but failed to break 1:48 this spring. Additionally, he went undefeated in open events during indoors, but hasn't even secured a win during the outdoor season. Despite the struggles, I'm going to stand by him and say that he'll qualify. He's simply too good to not make it...right?
As for other top seeds, I find Arizona's Colin Kibet to be extremely inconsistent despite his season best of 1:47. I'm also not super confident in Charles Jones. He qualified for NCAA's last spring, but fell to 18th in his first and only individual National Championship appearance. As talented as he is, I'm not sure I've figured him out enough to give him the nod.
1500
Sam Prakel (Oregon)
James West (Oregon)
Mick Stanovsek (Oregon)
Reed Brown (Oregon)
Carlos Villarreal (Arizona)
Josh Kerr (New Mexico)
Ian Crowe-Wright (New Mexico)
Alex Rogers (Texas)
Ben Saarel (Colorado)
Oliver Hoare (Wisconsin)
Taylor FloydMews (Bradley)
Jack Anstey (Illinois State)
--------------------
First Man Out: Alex Riba (Texas A&M)
It is absolutely ridiculous how much talent is in this field. Bare with me as I attempt to discuss all of my picks.
Josh Kerr is the NCAA record holder in the 1500 and a three time national champion. Let's move on...
Oregon has four men under 3:40. Four men! That is absolutely mind-boggling and not something I think anyone saw coming. It's no surprise that the Ducks are fielding a slew of individuals, but the level of talent that they are entering is a bit overwhelming. Historically, they have always qualified everyone that they've entered, but that might change this year. Prakel, Stanovsek, West, and Brown bring something unique to the table. I think they'll work with each to get out the prelims and return home to Eugene for one last race.
I'm a huge Carlos Villarreal fan. After his barrage of sub-4 mile finishes during indoors, he didn't stop there. He dropped a 3:38 and then a 1:46. Having that kind of speed makes him a huge threat and someone that I see as not just a national qualifier, but a future All-American as well.
Oliver Hoare ran 3:37 at Bryan Clay and split 3:54 on Wisconsin's DMR during the indoor season. Ben Saarel was a US Olympic Trials qualifier in the 1500 and owns a 3:38 personal best (unattached). His altitude converted seed time of 3:42 is solid, but he most likely has so much more to give. Overall, these two are far too accomplished to leave out of my picks.
Texas senior Alex Rogers is someone I have qualifying for Nationals. After running an agonizing 4:00.00 during the winter and failing to qualify for indoor Nationals, Rogers should be primed for a huge weekend. He ran 3:40 at Bryan Clay and has a personal best of 1:48 in the 800 which gives him an edge when it comes to speed. He is experienced, he has range, and he has nothing to lose. With a relatively easy heat in the prelims, I like his potential.
Ian Crowe-Wright may not get a lot of attention with Josh Kerr taking all of the headlines, but this guy is one of the more underrated 1500/milers in the NCAA. His 3:43 was super impressive, especially the way he outran the field in the final lap at Payton Jordan. He would later go on to defeat Colorado State ace Cole Rockhold for 2nd at the Mountain West Championship 1500. Crowe-Wright can adjust to many racing styles which is why I think he'll be able to battle for a qualifying spot.
The duo of Taylor FloydMews and Jack Anstey may not have the same accolades as some of the other guys in this field, but they have quietly posted some really solid results between the winter and spring track seasons. Anstey has had a breakout season with personal bests of 1:49 and 3:43 while FloydMews has a couple of 1500/mile wins along with a 3:43 PR. These two are the best sleeper picks that the field has to offer.
I don't like leaving out Luis Grijalva, but this field is super deep and has a lot of firepower up front. In most years, I would give him a qualifying spot. Of course, the spring of 2018 isn't like "most years".
The same can be said about Sam Worley. I understand that his performances are the same (maybe better) than teammate Alex Rogers, but I worry about his youth. Honestly, I keep doubting Worley and he continues to blow away my expectations. Will he do it again? Probably. Will that stop me from picking against him? No, but I recognize that it's my own fault.
3000 Steeple
Matt Owens (BYU)
Jacob Heslington (BYU)
Daniel Carney (BYU)
Clayson Shumway (BYU)
Simon Grannetia (Portland)
Troy Fraley (Gonzaga)
Yusuke Uchikoshi (Boise State)
Obsa Ali (Minnesota)
Noah Schutte (Portland)
Steven Fahy (Stanford)
Brian Barraza (Houston)
John Rice (Texas)
--------------------
First Man Out: Kyle Hosting (Arkansas)
Much like I mentioned with the East region steeplechase, the top seeds and favorites are the ones that I have advancing.
Matt Owens and Simon Grannetia have been absolutely phenomenal this season and their performances at Payton Jordan only validated how good they were. They've shown me that they know how to handle crowded and talented steeplechase fields. I don't expect that to change this weekend.
One of the top steeplechasers in the nation is Brian Barraza who looks like an absolute monster this season after running 13:38 at Mt SAC and an 8:41 steeple to start the season. Is he the favorite to win it all? He's certainly a favorite to at least qualify...
Boise State's Yusuke Uchikoshi still owns the #1 NCAA time of 8:38 and has yet to lose a steeplechase this season (although he has only raced it twice).
As for the BYU men...where do we start? They qualified three guys for this event last year and I'm trying to find a reason why they won't qualify four men this year. The only problem is that they're so darn good and they lack weaknesses. They're consistent, they produce fast times, they have a history of success in this event, and they've sent multiple guys to Nationals before.
Portland's Noah Schutte opted out of the 10k to focus on the steeplechase, a move that I found surprising. Still, Schutte has found a lot of success in the steeplechase throughout his career. He should be experienced enough to navigate through this field.
Much like the BYU men, the duo of Obsa Ali and John Rice don't give me a lot reason to dislike them. Their combination of experience, multiple performances under the 8:50 mark, and lack of poor finishes gives me a lot of confidence for how they'll do this weekend.
Stanford's Steven Fahy may be the easiest pick I had to make. So far, he's undefeated in the three steeplechase appearances he's had this season. With a seed time of 8:48, mile speed of 4:00, and 5k endurance of 13:44, he's an extremely dangerous competitor who will not go down easily.
The last name I have going to Eugene is Troy Fraley, the Gonzaga All-American who had a breakout spring season in 2017. He's had a slow start in 2018, but much like Hoppel in the 800, he's too talented to be left at home. Fraley has been here before and he'll know how to race against this kind of competition.
